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tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:34 pm

AS & B6 isn't happening. AS would want to be the surviving brand. If that didn't work pre-COVID, it's not going to work now (since B6 will be larger than AS coming out of this).

B6's assets in NYC are mostly in JFK. That's a terrible match for WN. It's entirely different from BWI. Higher costs and more delays. Aside from that, all the demand is to long haul international, Carribbeans and transcon. Does any of that sound like a good fit for WN?

Take a look at WN's presence in bay area. Huge dominant presence in OAK and SJC, but can't do anything right at SFO. Even in LA area, they don't fly any international or transcon out of LAX.

WN is great at the sub 4 hour domestic market, but just not a good fit for these primary coastal airports with a lot of international and transcon demands.

Now, if WN does want to expand outside of its current model, then B6 would make sense. But then it would have to deal with multiple fleet types, high cost airports and international flying. A big concern for B6 right now is seeing its costs escalating out of control from all this additional fleet complexity and premium long haul flying. It seems to me when WN has the choice of chasing revenue vs keep cost low, it normally chooses the latter. B6 is mostly picking the former.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:37 pm

Boiler905 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Vctony wrote:

B6 would be a total gut job. Eliminating Mint, assigned seating, Extra Space, etc. would play horribly in NYC and BOS (and WN's footprint would shrink there). Sure they might be competitive against F9 and NK but you'd see WN come in and eventually blead B6's market share to AA, DL, UA unless they tried to offer something other than the bread and butter WN product.


JFK and BOS catchments would add a Huge value to WN network especially since there chasing the corporate business market.
The transcontinental flights would definitely take a Hit them doubling down on connecting it’s dots to such a lucrative market areas.
JFK would easily become the new BWI eastern powerhouse while BOS would be the BNA northeast step sister.

While I would love WN to Buy B6 with London calling and the mint product that ship has sailed.
Unless AA makes a bid for B6 WN would definitely counter bid.
But my Money is on them taking out Spirit!

Flyguy


WN will not buy B6, but they will still gain JFK & BOS slots from whoever does B6 because the DOJ will most likely force them to relinquish some assets; even if B6 ends up merging with AS I think they'll still be required to offer opportunities to WN (and/or others) in to JFK & BOS.

If I were a betting person, my money would be on AS buying B6.


Why would AS/B6 have to give up a single slot at JFK/BOS or SEA when there is little to no overlap. Did AS have to give up their Dallas Lovefield slots they got from Virgin "just because"? No.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:44 pm

Just thinking outside the box,... If WN bought B6, could WN market a Southwest Mint product on a subfleet, where Mint seating and and extra legroom seating are assigned, but open seating is kept in coach? This could keep the current WN product intact and yet offer a niche product in select demand markets and routes.
 
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Boiler905
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:46 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Boiler905 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:

JFK and BOS catchments would add a Huge value to WN network especially since there chasing the corporate business market.
The transcontinental flights would definitely take a Hit them doubling down on connecting it’s dots to such a lucrative market areas.
JFK would easily become the new BWI eastern powerhouse while BOS would be the BNA northeast step sister.

While I would love WN to Buy B6 with London calling and the mint product that ship has sailed.
Unless AA makes a bid for B6 WN would definitely counter bid.
But my Money is on them taking out Spirit!

Flyguy


WN will not buy B6, but they will still gain JFK & BOS slots from whoever does B6 because the DOJ will most likely force them to relinquish some assets; even if B6 ends up merging with AS I think they'll still be required to offer opportunities to WN (and/or others) in to JFK & BOS.

If I were a betting person, my money would be on AS buying B6.


Why would AS/B6 have to give up a single slot at JFK/BOS or SEA when there is little to no overlap. Did AS have to give up their Dallas Lovefield slots they got from Virgin "just because"? No.



They might not be required to, but I'm going out on a limb that the DOJ would require some relinquishment of assets in slot-constrained airports; which is not unusual even when overlap isn't big.
Boiler Up
 
bob75013
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:47 pm

trueblew wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:

JFK and BOS catchments would add a Huge value to WN network especially since there chasing the corporate business market.
The transcontinental flights would definitely take a Hit them doubling down on connecting it’s dots to such a lucrative market areas.
JFK would easily become the new BWI eastern powerhouse while BOS would be the BNA northeast step sister.

While I would love WN to Buy B6 with London calling and the mint product that ship has sailed.
Unless AA makes a bid for B6 WN would definitely counter bid.
But my Money is on them taking out Spirit!

Flyguy


Except the fact as others mentioned I don’t think the B6 faithful move to WN if they buy them. Some would but I don’t think it would that much. They move to DL or AA. This isn’t BWI or BNA that have WN as the only “hub” airline. BOS/NYC have other options to move loyalty to and still get lots of nonstops.


Correct. WN's product isn't suitable for New Yorkers. Trading lie-flat seats or free high speed internet in roomy coach seats for cramped, no-frills, cattle call boarding on two to three flights to cross the country? They'll hold their nose and go with AA or DL.


Except that in many cases WN's main cabin coach seat pitch is no worse than the legacies, and in many cases it is better.. Further the legacies offer lots of aircraft that are 30 inch pitch -- WN has none of those. Further again, WN offers lots of aircraft with 33 inch pitch -- none of the legacies do
 
ScottB
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 6:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
B6's assets in NYC are mostly in JFK. That's a terrible match for WN. It's entirely different from BWI. Higher costs and more delays. Aside from that, all the demand is to long haul international, Carribbeans and transcon. Does any of that sound like a good fit for WN?


Long-haul international and transcon? Nope. Caribbean? Absolutely. Customers in Caribbean markets from NYC would probably love WN's baggage policy. And don't forget another key B6 market from JFK: Florida. Also right in WN's wheelhouse. Beyond-LGA-perimeter but not quite transcon (like AUS, SAT, PHX, LAS)? Mostly markets where WN is strong.

tphuang wrote:
Now, if WN does want to expand outside of its current model, then B6 would make sense. But then it would have to deal with multiple fleet types, high cost airports and international flying. A big concern for B6 right now is seeing its costs escalating out of control from all this additional fleet complexity and premium long haul flying.


Nothing about what B6 is doing now requires multiple fleet types if WN were to implement it. They've got hundreds of 150-seat aircraft coming so they don't need A220s. The 737 MAX-10 could replace the A321s apart from B6's planned routes to Europe. WN is already in high-cost airports like LGA because they recognize the necessity of being in these markets. And they seem to be handling the complexity of subfleets with their operation to Hawai'i, which of course requires ETOPS aircraft.
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:28 pm

ScottB wrote:
tphuang wrote:
B6's assets in NYC are mostly in JFK. That's a terrible match for WN. It's entirely different from BWI. Higher costs and more delays. Aside from that, all the demand is to long haul international, Carribbeans and transcon. Does any of that sound like a good fit for WN?


Long-haul international and transcon? Nope. Caribbean? Absolutely. Customers in Caribbean markets from NYC would probably love WN's baggage policy. And don't forget another key B6 market from JFK: Florida. Also right in WN's wheelhouse. Beyond-LGA-perimeter but not quite transcon (like AUS, SAT, PHX, LAS)? Mostly markets where WN is strong.


WN has been terrible on those VFR markets from FLL. Those JFK VFR routes are the bread and butter of B6 Caribbean network. Do you have any example of WN doing well on a Caribbean market that's not 90+% US POS? And even for the pure leisure Caribbean markets, they would need to actually capture NYC point of sale. have you seen the taxes to DR and Jamaica? You can't rely on pricing low to succeed in those markets.

What makes you think they can make JFK-Florida work if they don't have NYC point of sale? I think the only daily flight to Florida they had out of LGA pre-COVID was TPA. They got chased out of EWR-MCO/FLL after 2 years. PHX/LAS are two more routes that's heavily dependent on NYC point of sale and over 2000 miles. SAN is another one.

I don't see how they can use anything close to 180 slot pairs at JFK.

tphuang wrote:
Now, if WN does want to expand outside of its current model, then B6 would make sense. But then it would have to deal with multiple fleet types, high cost airports and international flying. A big concern for B6 right now is seeing its costs escalating out of control from all this additional fleet complexity and premium long haul flying.


Nothing about what B6 is doing now requires multiple fleet types if WN were to implement it. They've got hundreds of 150-seat aircraft coming so they don't need A220s. The 737 MAX-10 could replace the A321s apart from B6's planned routes to Europe. WN is already in high-cost airports like LGA because they recognize the necessity of being in these markets. And they seem to be handling the complexity of subfleets with their operation to Hawai'i, which of course requires ETOPS aircraft.


You can't replace a 300 aircraft fleet overnight. A good portion of their most profitable routes (NYC-ACK/MVY/HYA, HPN stuff, all the mint, JFK-GYE/AUA/BGI) cannot be operated by 737MAX. Any type of transition will be very costly.
 
Jetport
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
AS & B6 isn't happening. AS would want to be the surviving brand. If that didn't work pre-COVID, it's not going to work now (since B6 will be larger than AS coming out of this).

B6's assets in NYC are mostly in JFK. That's a terrible match for WN. It's entirely different from BWI. Higher costs and more delays. Aside from that, all the demand is to long haul international, Carribbeans and transcon. Does any of that sound like a good fit for WN?

Take a look at WN's presence in bay area. Huge dominant presence in OAK and SJC, but can't do anything right at SFO. Even in LA area, they don't fly any international or transcon out of LAX.

WN is great at the sub 4 hour domestic market, but just not a good fit for these primary coastal airports with a lot of international and transcon demands.

Now, if WN does want to expand outside of its current model, then B6 would make sense. But then it would have to deal with multiple fleet types, high cost airports and international flying. A big concern for B6 right now is seeing its costs escalating out of control from all this additional fleet complexity and premium long haul flying. It seems to me when WN has the choice of chasing revenue vs keep cost low, it normally chooses the latter. B6 is mostly picking the former.


WN is the cost king and AS appears to be copying them. Good point on JetBlue's costs. It will be very interesting to listen to B6's quarterly conference calls over the next few quarters and years to see how they are doing on costs. AS is becoming simpler like WN while B6 is become much more complicated with a third fleet type, 3 different seat layouts on their A321's and TATL flying. It will be interesting if the added revenue they get from this complexity outstrips the added costs. With their ongoing retrofit of older A320's and the A200's starting to deliver, they now have 8 different cabin layouts across 3 totally different aircraft types.
 
ScottB
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
You can't replace a 300 aircraft fleet overnight. A good portion of their most profitable routes (NYC-ACK/MVY/HYA, HPN stuff, all the mint, JFK-GYE/AUA/BGI) cannot be operated by 737MAX. Any type of transition will be very costly.


JFK-AUA/BGI would be no problem for 738s or MAX-8s. If the MAX-8 can do PHX-HNL, it can do GYE-JFK.

The E190s aren't staying around at B6. The E190 phase-out was expected (as of YE 2018) to be complete in 2025. The financial impact of Covid may have extended that timeline. If B6 expects to be able to use the A223 at ACK/MVY/HYA/HPN, the MAX-7 would work, too.

Of course a transition would be costly. But on the flip side, it's exceedingly likely WN would be able to find new homes for all but the very oldest A320s in the fleet, not to mention the A223s. Southwest has 342 orders and options for 737 MAX between 2023 and 2026 -- this is on top of the 100 orders and options for 2022 which they'll need to rebuild the pre-Covid network. They actually could replace the entire B6 fleet within a pretty reasonable time -- pilot training might be the bigger bottleneck.

tphuang wrote:
WN has been terrible on those VFR markets from FLL. Those JFK VFR routes are the bread and butter of B6 Caribbean network. Do you have any example of WN doing well on a Caribbean market that's not 90+% US POS? And even for the pure leisure Caribbean markets, they would need to actually capture NYC point of sale. have you seen the taxes to DR and Jamaica? You can't rely on pricing low to succeed in those markets.

What makes you think they can make JFK-Florida work if they don't have NYC point of sale? I think the only daily flight to Florida they had out of LGA pre-COVID was TPA. They got chased out of EWR-MCO/FLL after 2 years. PHX/LAS are two more routes that's heavily dependent on NYC point of sale and over 2000 miles. SAN is another one.


I think that one of the assets they'd hope to gain would be B6's expertise in targeting point-of-sale where they've done poorly in the past.
 
Flflyer83
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 9:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
AS & B6 isn't happening. AS would want to be the surviving brand. If that didn't work pre-COVID, it's not going to work now (since B6 will be larger than AS coming out of this).

B6's assets in NYC are mostly in JFK. That's a terrible match for WN. It's entirely different from BWI. Higher costs and more delays. Aside from that, all the demand is to long haul international, Carribbeans and transcon. Does any of that sound like a good fit for WN?

Take a look at WN's presence in bay area. Huge dominant presence in OAK and SJC, but can't do anything right at SFO. Even in LA area, they don't fly any international or transcon out of LAX.

WN is great at the sub 4 hour domestic market, but just not a good fit for these primary coastal airports with a lot of international and transcon demands.

Now, if WN does want to expand outside of its current model, then B6 would make sense. But then it would have to deal with multiple fleet types, high cost airports and international flying. A big concern for B6 right now is seeing its costs escalating out of control from all this additional fleet complexity and premium long haul flying. It seems to me when WN has the choice of chasing revenue vs keep cost low, it normally chooses the latter. B6 is mostly picking the former.


Beyond JFK/EWR, which high cost airports? WN does international flying just as B6 does. B6 isn’t what you crack it up to be.
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:13 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AS & B6 isn't happening. AS would want to be the surviving brand. If that didn't work pre-COVID, it's not going to work now (since B6 will be larger than AS coming out of this).

B6's assets in NYC are mostly in JFK. That's a terrible match for WN. It's entirely different from BWI. Higher costs and more delays. Aside from that, all the demand is to long haul international, Carribbeans and transcon. Does any of that sound like a good fit for WN?

Take a look at WN's presence in bay area. Huge dominant presence in OAK and SJC, but can't do anything right at SFO. Even in LA area, they don't fly any international or transcon out of LAX.

WN is great at the sub 4 hour domestic market, but just not a good fit for these primary coastal airports with a lot of international and transcon demands.

Now, if WN does want to expand outside of its current model, then B6 would make sense. But then it would have to deal with multiple fleet types, high cost airports and international flying. A big concern for B6 right now is seeing its costs escalating out of control from all this additional fleet complexity and premium long haul flying. It seems to me when WN has the choice of chasing revenue vs keep cost low, it normally chooses the latter. B6 is mostly picking the former.


Beyond JFK/EWR, which high cost airports? WN does international flying just as B6 does. B6 isn’t what you crack it up to be.


A good example is the bay area. B6 is larger than WN at SFO right now, but WN is clearly much larger than B6 when you factor in OAK/SJC. Even at LAX, B6 is probably larger than WN right now if you measure by ASM (67 to 39 in flights, but B6 average stage length is probably 1600+ miles), but WN is clearly larger in LA basin as a whole. B6 is embracing these high costs airports and abandoning low cost airports.

They just have different approaches.

It's not me cracking B6 up to be more than they are. B6 originally was probably trying to be a stylish NYC version of WN. But over time, they have evolved to trying to be a low cost version of big 3. And they have fled all those secondary airports like OAK/LGB/BWI that their original model called for. Their fleet is just getting more and more complex.

What I'm trying to say is that B6 became the way it is now in order to survive against a lot of pressure from DL in the northeast. If WN was to acquire B6, it would need to retain most of that to be successful in NYC/Boston. At some point, they realized that they had to fly farther and farther and go more premium in their offering in order to not miss out on revenue opportunities.
 
glideslope900
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:34 am

WN and B6 is probably the worst merger one can imagine. B6 and F9 or NK would be much better. Also eliminating that Florida competition for B6.
 
B6FLL954
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 3:45 am

While I don't believe either WN or B6 is interested in a merger at the moment, I'll play along with this hypothetical M&A scenario. There is no way WN would dismiss the A321's from the combined fleet, in this scenario they swallow their pride and accept multiple fleet types. These aircraft are extremely efficient and help make the most of constrained airports like JFK, LGA & EWR. I agree on selling the A220 order book and finding buyers for the lower cycle A320's.

I also highly doubt WN would go through all the hassle of a B6 acquisition to scrap MINT and allow those high paying customers to transition to DL, UA & AA. I completely understand the rational behind simplifying the operation after the purchase of AirTran, but this is a different situation entirely. WN's deeper pockets would also be beneficial in obtaining more slots at LHR and potentially other gateways in Western Europe.

Ultimately I think if there's more M&A activity in the near future, it will be WN acquiring one of the smaller ULCC's. I do however believe that a WN and B6 merger would be quite the challenge to the Big 3 US carriers.
 
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jbpdx
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 4:17 am

glideslope900 wrote:
WN and B6 is probably the worst merger one can imagine. B6 and F9 or NK would be much better. Also eliminating that Florida competition for B6.


The Biden administration is focused on expanding competition in corporate America. It’s doubtful there’ll be any mergers or buyouts
approved by the Justice Department in the foreseeable future.
^PDX’s one-hit wonders: NK, SY, F9*
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:54 pm

B6FLL954 wrote:
Ultimately I think if there's more M&A activity in the near future, it will be WN acquiring one of the smaller ULCC's. I do however believe that a WN and B6 merger would be quite the challenge to the Big 3 US carriers.


A WN-SY merger might make sense as both WN and SY have 737-800 planes in their fleets. A WN-SY merger would also likely give WN a much bigger presence at MSP, even though WN would probably drop some of the SY nonstop routes out of MSP if a WN-SY merger takes place.

WN would also likely gain some additional destinations if it merges with SY such as ANC, AVL, FAI, FCA, ZIH, JAC, MZT, RTB, and STT.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 3:22 pm

WN not going to buy anyone.
Unless someone else makes a M&A play.
Then WN will definitely make an offer.
If AS or AA make an offer on B6 then WN would definitely make a counter offer.
Like when AirTran made an offer on AirTran WN swooped in and made a counter offer to invest,take assets and do a Codeshare. This would probably be the best play for WN buying B6.

Now if someone were make a offer to Buy NK.
Again WN would definitely counter offer.
This would result in a temporary sub fleet for 5 yrs or so until WN could replace the Airbus aircraft with Boeing aircraft. Basically the same plan they had when they originally made a offer on Frontier years ago.

Everyone in the industry knows a pilot shortage is coming in the next 5 to 10 yrs. So eventually another round of M&A will come from the shortage to feed the staffing needs If the organic pool drys up.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 3:35 pm

jplatts wrote:
B6FLL954 wrote:
Ultimately I think if there's more M&A activity in the near future, it will be WN acquiring one of the smaller ULCC's. I do however believe that a WN and B6 merger would be quite the challenge to the Big 3 US carriers.


A WN-SY merger might make sense as both WN and SY have 737-800 planes in their fleets. A WN-SY merger would also likely give WN a much bigger presence at MSP, even though WN would probably drop some of the SY nonstop routes out of MSP if a WN-SY merger takes place.

WN would also likely gain some additional destinations if it merges with SY such as ANC, AVL, FAI, FCA, ZIH, JAC, MZT, RTB, and STT.


WN Brass already looked at SY during the bankruptcy and passed in SY since it was a financial nightmare.
That ship has sailed in my opinion.
Plus Most of the SY fleet is Very old used 800s with high cycles. WN is currently retiring high cycled 700s from its fleet so it makes no sense to buy SY with a bunch of Used high cycled aircraft.

MSP is a feeding Dot on the WN map in the back yard of a DL mini Mega HUB .
If WN chose not to double down on ATL when it bought FL it’s definitely not double down on MSP either.

Buying SY brings No value what so ever.

If someone like NK were to make a play for buying SY.
WN would probably counter the offer with a Merger proposal with NK still leaving SY in the dumpster.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
maps4ltd
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 4:15 pm

jbpdx wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:
WN and B6 is probably the worst merger one can imagine. B6 and F9 or NK would be much better. Also eliminating that Florida competition for B6.


The Biden administration is focused on expanding competition in corporate America. It’s doubtful there’ll be any mergers or buyouts
approved by the Justice Department in the foreseeable future.

To be fair, the UA-CO, DL-NW, and AA-US mergers all happened under the Obama admin, which had a similar outlook.
All opinions expressed herein are mine and do not represent the views of Cape Air
 
alasizon
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 5:44 pm

737MAX7 wrote:
allegiantflyer wrote:
Why doesn't WN just open the hiring pool to external applicants? We keep hearing this story of stations being understaffed yet it seems like they have no intention of resolving the issue. Im shocked theres no intention to post openings.

They have, the problem is it takes roughly 2-3 months to complete the hiring process. You apply, they narrow down the applicants, find the ones they want to phone interview, do the phone interview, narrow down some more, set up face to face interviews, narrow down more, drug test, background check and then SIDA badging. And this doesn’t even take into account new hire training which usually consists of 8-10 shifts with a trainer, then the week long new hire training before coming back and then waiting to be signed off.


There are many ways to cut down the 2-3 month period, if WN can't figure out how to do it, that is on them. As recovery for COVID started, our station had to hire 500 below wing employees and we took it on locally and cut the time way down. Sure, it created a massive backlog for my training team but we got it going.

We replaced the phone interview with an online info session and at the end of it we provided them with a link to the self-booking platform for panel interviews the next day or two days later.

Typical flow:
-Applicant applies
-Every Friday sent out the invite for the info session on Tuesday/Wednesday
-Every Thursday in-person interviews and offers with on-site drug testing for the employees who we were for sure going to hire
-Ten days later the employee started and attended orientation, took fingerprints and did their pre-classroom training
-At least 2-3 new hire ramp classes per week

It took under 30 days per person to get them processed and into on the job training.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 5:53 pm

WN has more room to add more flights out of DAL with WN currently only operating 178 daily departures out of DAL compared to the 195 daily departures that WN was operating out of DAL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN has already resumed most of its pre-pandemic nonstop routes out of DAL, but WN had dropped DAL-BOS/DTW nonstop service last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, has dropped DAL-PHL nonstop service through end of current schedule, resumed DAL-RDU nonstop service on a weekend-only basis, and resumed DAL-PIT on a Sunday-only basis.

I wish that WN had added more nonstop flights out of DAL back in its Summer 2021 flight schedule (in addition to the DAL-BOI/HRL/IAH/SDF/MKE/MSP/PDX/SEA resumptions, DAL-BZN/ORD/VPS/LGB/MIA/MYR/ORF/SRQ/SAV adds, and recent increase of DAL-LGA to 3x daily from 2x daily), but I do understand the operational issues that WN is currently facing (not only at DAL but elsewhere in its network) due to the fleet shortages and staffing shortages that WN is currently facing.

While WN dropped DAL-BOS/DTW nonstop service last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the return of WN DAL-BOS/DTW nonstop service is a possibility with WN having plans to restore most of its network along with BOS and DTW being two of the top destinations traveled to DAL prior to the pandemic that aren't currently served nonstop from DAL.

There are also a few more destinations such as CVG and BDL that could probably support nonstop service out of DAL on WN with CVG and BDL being two of the top domestic destinations traveled to from the DFW/DAL market that aren't currently served nonstop from DAL.

Is WN likely to add more flights back in out of DAL prior to September 2021, especially with WN having enough room at DAL to do so?
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4447
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 6:07 pm

jplatts wrote:
Is WN likely to add more flights back in out of DAL prior to September 2021, especially with WN having enough room at DAL to do so?


Flights on current routes, maybe. New routes, no
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1873
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
A good example is the bay area. B6 is larger than WN at SFO right now, but WN is clearly much larger than B6 when you factor in OAK/SJC. Even at LAX, B6 is probably larger than WN right now if you measure by ASM (67 to 39 in flights, but B6 average stage length is probably 1600+ miles), but WN is clearly larger in LA basin as a whole. B6 is embracing these high costs airports and abandoning low cost airports.


When someone is looking at which airline has a larger presence at any airport who measures that in ASM's besides analysts? Southwest clearly is much larger than B6 at LAX and it's gotta be very close at SFO. WN has a bigger footprint than B6, flies to more places nonstop and way more brand recognition along the entire west coast - including LAX and SFO. There's no comparison.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9851
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:42 pm

Yes, analysts like to look at ASMs because they're an indicator of revenue potential. Longer flights are generally more valuable that short ones. WN likes the conceit of claiming to be the largest domestic airline (by passenger count), ignoring shorter stage length (and lower total ASMs, domestic or systemwide).

LAWA puts out a pretty good data set, pretty quickly (at least compared to PANYNJ). YTD shares 5/2021 by carrier, passengers:

DL 23.42%
AA 20.68%
UA 14.41%
AS 9.88%
WN 9.90%
NK 5.5%
B6 5.03%
and everybody else individually less than 1.50%

https://www.lawa.org/lawa-investor-rela ... statistics

Carriers aren't publishing revenue by airport so we make do with available data. Schedules and seat count by type yield ASMs for those who want to verify.
 
trueblew
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 5:11 pm

bob75013 wrote:
trueblew wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

Except the fact as others mentioned I don’t think the B6 faithful move to WN if they buy them. Some would but I don’t think it would that much. They move to DL or AA. This isn’t BWI or BNA that have WN as the only “hub” airline. BOS/NYC have other options to move loyalty to and still get lots of nonstops.


Correct. WN's product isn't suitable for New Yorkers. Trading lie-flat seats or free high speed internet in roomy coach seats for cramped, no-frills, cattle call boarding on two to three flights to cross the country? They'll hold their nose and go with AA or DL.


Except that in many cases WN's main cabin coach seat pitch is no worse than the legacies, and in many cases it is better.. Further the legacies offer lots of aircraft that are 30 inch pitch -- WN has none of those. Further again, WN offers lots of aircraft with 33 inch pitch -- none of the legacies do


The comparison wasn't with legacies, it was with B6. B6's standard legroom is what the legacies offer in their economy+ section.

ScottB wrote:
WN is already in high-cost airports like LGA because they recognize the necessity of being in these markets. And they seem to be handling the complexity of subfleets with their operation to Hawai'i, which of course requires ETOPS aircraft.


"Being in" high-cost airports isn't the same as having the vast majority of your operations in high-cost airports.

ScottB wrote:
tphuang wrote:
You can't replace a 300 aircraft fleet overnight. A good portion of their most profitable routes (NYC-ACK/MVY/HYA, HPN stuff, all the mint, JFK-GYE/AUA/BGI) cannot be operated by 737MAX. Any type of transition will be very costly.


JFK-AUA/BGI would be no problem for 738s or MAX-8s. If the MAX-8 can do PHX-HNL, it can do GYE-JFK.

The E190s aren't staying around at B6. The E190 phase-out was expected (as of YE 2018) to be complete in 2025. The financial impact of Covid may have extended that timeline. If B6 expects to be able to use the A223 at ACK/MVY/HYA/HPN, the MAX-7 would work, too.

Of course a transition would be costly. But on the flip side, it's exceedingly likely WN would be able to find new homes for all but the very oldest A320s in the fleet, not to mention the A223s. Southwest has 342 orders and options for 737 MAX between 2023 and 2026 -- this is on top of the 100 orders and options for 2022 which they'll need to rebuild the pre-Covid network. They actually could replace the entire B6 fleet within a pretty reasonable time -- pilot training might be the bigger bottleneck.

tphuang wrote:
WN has been terrible on those VFR markets from FLL. Those JFK VFR routes are the bread and butter of B6 Caribbean network. Do you have any example of WN doing well on a Caribbean market that's not 90+% US POS? And even for the pure leisure Caribbean markets, they would need to actually capture NYC point of sale. have you seen the taxes to DR and Jamaica? You can't rely on pricing low to succeed in those markets.

What makes you think they can make JFK-Florida work if they don't have NYC point of sale? I think the only daily flight to Florida they had out of LGA pre-COVID was TPA. They got chased out of EWR-MCO/FLL after 2 years. PHX/LAS are two more routes that's heavily dependent on NYC point of sale and over 2000 miles. SAN is another one.


I think that one of the assets they'd hope to gain would be B6's expertise in targeting point-of-sale where they've done poorly in the past.


The A223 won't work at many of those small airports with extremely high yields. I'm not sure what B6 plans to do once the last E190 has left the fleet, but they will likely either need an A221 subfleet or exit those markets. The Max-7 will not work at Nantucket, believe me.

No one is "talking up" B6 or "tearing down" WN here. It's all just spelling out the reality: if WN and B6 were to merge, WN couldn't keep their type of product in NYC, among other markets, while keeping all the routes and customers that B6 has. The majority will flee to DL/AA/UA. At what point is a merger with B6 worth it if WN doesn't even keep the customer base in B6's largest markets?
 
jplatts
Posts: 4651
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 6:43 pm

trueblew wrote:
The A223 won't work at many of those small airports with extremely high yields. I'm not sure what B6 plans to do once the last E190 has left the fleet, but they will likely either need an A221 subfleet or exit those markets. The Max-7 will not work at Nantucket, believe me.

No one is "talking up" B6 or "tearing down" WN here. It's all just spelling out the reality: if WN and B6 were to merge, WN couldn't keep their type of product in NYC, among other markets, while keeping all the routes and customers that B6 has. The majority will flee to DL/AA/UA. At what point is a merger with B6 worth it if WN doesn't even keep the customer base in B6's largest markets?


If WN does merge with B6, it might make sense for WN to keep some of the B6 nonstop routes out of BOS to Western US destinations such as BOS-BZN/HDN/MTJ/PSP/SMF/SAN/SJC with BZN, HDN, MTJ, PSP, SMF, SAN, and SJC currently not having any nonstop service out of BOS on any of the US3 carriers.

WN also already has a significant FF base and significant market share in the SMF, SAN, and SJC markets to support keeping nonstop service to SMF, SAN, and SJC from BOS if a WN-B6 merger did happen.

In addition to the destinations that WN or B6 currently serve nonstop from BOS, there are a few other destinations such as ABQ, CVG, SDF, and ORF that might be able to support nonstop service out of BOS on WN if a WN-B6 merger did happen with the much bigger FF base that WN would likely have in the BOS market following a WN-B6 merger.

There are also some additional domestic destinations (in addition to the destinations that WN or B6 currently serve nonstop from NYC) such as CLT, CVG, CLE, CMH, GRR, IND, SDF, MEM, MKE, MYR, ORF, OKC, OMA, PIT, and RIC that might be able to support nonstop service out of NYC on WN if a WN-B6 merger takes place with the much bigger FF base that WN would have in NYC following a WN-B6 merger.
 
AC4500
Posts: 684
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 6:46 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
jplatts wrote:
B6FLL954 wrote:
Ultimately I think if there's more M&A activity in the near future, it will be WN acquiring one of the smaller ULCC's. I do however believe that a WN and B6 merger would be quite the challenge to the Big 3 US carriers.


A WN-SY merger might make sense as both WN and SY have 737-800 planes in their fleets. A WN-SY merger would also likely give WN a much bigger presence at MSP, even though WN would probably drop some of the SY nonstop routes out of MSP if a WN-SY merger takes place.

WN would also likely gain some additional destinations if it merges with SY such as ANC, AVL, FAI, FCA, ZIH, JAC, MZT, RTB, and STT.


WN Brass already looked at SY during the bankruptcy and passed in SY since it was a financial nightmare.
That ship has sailed in my opinion.
Plus Most of the SY fleet is Very old used 800s with high cycles. WN is currently retiring high cycled 700s from its fleet so it makes no sense to buy SY with a bunch of Used high cycled aircraft.

MSP is a feeding Dot on the WN map in the back yard of a DL mini Mega HUB .
If WN chose not to double down on ATL when it bought FL it’s definitely not double down on MSP either.

Buying SY brings No value what so ever.

If someone like NK were to make a play for buying SY.
WN would probably counter the offer with a Merger proposal with NK still leaving SY in the dumpster.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

IDK why the topic of WN buying-out or merging with another airline is such a popular topic right now, as there has been no official indication of this type of development occurring. Honestly, the only airline that I could see WN having any interest in would be SY. NK and F9 both have Airbus-only fleets, and while the AS/VX merger showed us that fleet commonality isn't necessary for a (successful?) merger to occur, F9 and NK are much larger than VX was at the height of their operation. You also have to consider what the DOJ would allow. WN is already a major player at DEN and LAS, so WN merging with NK and/or F9 would significantly decrease competition.

SY has changed A LOT over the past few years. They've tried to step outside of MSP, looking for other successful major markets to place their product in. Sometimes they've been successful, such as in LAS and other times they have not, like at PDX.

IDK what their financial status is at the moment, but they've recently taken to investing a lot of their resources into increasing cargo ops, especially in partnering with Atlas and Amazon. They have a common fleet type (737-800s), and they even share the same terminal at MSP. Yes, a combined SY-WN operation would still leave them 'in the back-yard' of DL's major hub, but if they play their cards correctly, I think they could potentially turn MSP into an operation like PHX and DEN which WN also shares competition with AA and UA as major hub operators.
 
Shakinthefat
Posts: 68
Joined: Thu May 07, 2020 6:56 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:46 am

AC4500 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
jplatts wrote:

A WN-SY merger might make sense as both WN and SY have 737-800 planes in their fleets. A WN-SY merger would also likely give WN a much bigger presence at MSP, even though WN would probably drop some of the SY nonstop routes out of MSP if a WN-SY merger takes place.

WN would also likely gain some additional destinations if it merges with SY such as ANC, AVL, FAI, FCA, ZIH, JAC, MZT, RTB, and STT.


WN Brass already looked at SY during the bankruptcy and passed in SY since it was a financial nightmare.
That ship has sailed in my opinion.
Plus Most of the SY fleet is Very old used 800s with high cycles. WN is currently retiring high cycled 700s from its fleet so it makes no sense to buy SY with a bunch of Used high cycled aircraft.

MSP is a feeding Dot on the WN map in the back yard of a DL mini Mega HUB .
If WN chose not to double down on ATL when it bought FL it’s definitely not double down on MSP either.

Buying SY brings No value what so ever.

If someone like NK were to make a play for buying SY.
WN would probably counter the offer with a Merger proposal with NK still leaving SY in the dumpster.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

IDK why the topic of WN buying-out or merging with another airline is such a popular topic right now, as there has been no official indication of this type of development occurring.

It’s the airline management way of doing mergers and buyouts...when you least expect it.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4651
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:50 am

AC4500 wrote:
Honestly, the only airline that I could see WN having any interest in would be SY. NK and F9 both have Airbus-only fleets, and while the AS/VX merger showed us that fleet commonality isn't necessary for a (successful?) merger to occur, F9 and NK are much larger than VX was at the height of their operation. You also have to consider what the DOJ would allow. WN is already a major player at DEN and LAS, so WN merging with NK and/or F9 would significantly decrease competition.


In addition to the AS-VX merger, the DL-NW, UA-CO, and AA-US mergers all involved mergers between 737 NG operators (AA, DL, CO) and Airbus A320 family operators (AA, UA, NW, US).

AA, DL, and UA also still have both 737 NG and Airbus A320 family aircraft in service due to airline mergers.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4651
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:50 am

AC4500 wrote:
Honestly, the only airline that I could see WN having any interest in would be SY. NK and F9 both have Airbus-only fleets, and while the AS/VX merger showed us that fleet commonality isn't necessary for a (successful?) merger to occur, F9 and NK are much larger than VX was at the height of their operation. You also have to consider what the DOJ would allow. WN is already a major player at DEN and LAS, so WN merging with NK and/or F9 would significantly decrease competition.


In addition to the AS-VX merger, the DL-NW, UA-CO, and AA-US mergers all involved mergers between 737 NG operators (AA, DL, CO) and Airbus A320 family operators (AA, UA, NW, US).

AA, DL, and UA also still have both 737 NG and Airbus A320 family aircraft in service due to airline mergers.
 
Wneast
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:37 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:48 am

I can’t find it now it was in a thread but does someone else know is WN earnings call for quarter 2 on July 22 ?
 
sldispatcher
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:55 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:52 pm

Why in the world would WN want to take on B6 debt, costs, culture and complexity when they can grow organically? Only reason would be to shut them down (hello Airtran).

The biggest mistake I see any carrier making is trying to be all things to all people. We barely have room for the Big 3 that we have now.

Thank goodness WN management has far better discipline than exhibited on here.
 
av8tiongeek
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:25 pm

Wneast wrote:
I can’t find it now it was in a thread but does someone else know is WN earnings call for quarter 2 on July 22 ?



https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ ... v/earnings

Southwest Airlines Company is expected* to report earnings on 07/22/2021 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2021. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 12 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $-0.33. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $-2.67.
 
DaCubbyBearBar
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:31 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:43 pm

Wneast wrote:
I can’t find it now it was in a thread but does someone else know is WN earnings call for quarter 2 on July 22 ?

I GOOGLED it…. July 22
I am me and no one else...so my opinions are mine
 
Wneast
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:37 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:20 pm

Hopefully we hear at the earnings call something about the JFK slots.
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 114
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 1:39 am

Southwest has struggled over the last few years to really keep what it HAS been offering at BOS going. It seems like with every new schedule, flights are slowly chopped, or frequencies are cut from 3x a day to 2x a day or 1x a day -- or just weekly.

They have become basically a hub airline for BOS, and they don't even serve all of their hubs. MCO gets a once-weekly fight from BOS. DAL isn't served. DEN had flights chopped all summer -- and continues to have limited direct service for the fall/winter -- which then limits journeys you can make from there.

Then there's the lack of the ability to book seats, something that doesn't seem like a big deal in many parts of the country, but comes back as a frustration point in the more affluent northeast.

BOS has had the ability to take on Southwest expansion -- especially now with the lack of international traffic. There's no interest from the airline to expand service.

Like others have said, if somehow Southwest could make a B6/WN merger happen, you'd see customers being hemorrhaged to the likes of Delta, American and United.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10911
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 2:38 am

B6BOSfan wrote:
Southwest has struggled over the last few years to really keep what it HAS been offering at BOS going. It seems like with every new schedule, flights are slowly chopped, or frequencies are cut from 3x a day to 2x a day or 1x a day -- or just weekly.

They have become basically a hub airline for BOS, and they don't even serve all of their hubs. MCO gets a once-weekly fight from BOS. DAL isn't served. DEN had flights chopped all summer -- and continues to have limited direct service for the fall/winter -- which then limits journeys you can make from there.

Then there's the lack of the ability to book seats, something that doesn't seem like a big deal in many parts of the country, but comes back as a frustration point in the more affluent northeast.

BOS has had the ability to take on Southwest expansion -- especially now with the lack of international traffic. There's no interest from the airline to expand service.

Like others have said, if somehow Southwest could make a B6/WN merger happen, you'd see customers being hemorrhaged to the likes of Delta, American and United.

With the cuts you describe the loss of pax has already taken place, unless the reduce offerings are to mitigate bad weather events in the region having negative effects on the rest of the network.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4651
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:10 am

B6BOSfan wrote:
Southwest has struggled over the last few years to really keep what it HAS been offering at BOS going. It seems like with every new schedule, flights are slowly chopped, or frequencies are cut from 3x a day to 2x a day or 1x a day -- or just weekly.

They have become basically a hub airline for BOS, and they don't even serve all of their hubs. MCO gets a once-weekly fight from BOS. DAL isn't served. DEN had flights chopped all summer -- and continues to have limited direct service for the fall/winter -- which then limits journeys you can make from there.

Then there's the lack of the ability to book seats, something that doesn't seem like a big deal in many parts of the country, but comes back as a frustration point in the more affluent northeast.

BOS has had the ability to take on Southwest expansion -- especially now with the lack of international traffic. There's no interest from the airline to expand service.


One issue that WN was facing at BOS and some other East Coast markets (through at least March 31, 2021) was the significantly decreased demand that was there to BOS and some other East Coast markets on WN due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN is currently down to 15 daily departures (5x BWI, 3x MDW, 3x DEN, 2x BNA, 2x STL) at BOS compared to the 41 daily departures (3x ATL, 1x AUS, 10x BWI, 6x MDW, 1x DAL, 3x DEN, 2x HOU, 2x IND, 2x MCI, 2x MKE, 3x BNA, 4x STL) that WN was operating out of BOS 4 years ago.

The demand for WN service to/from BOS in Summer 2019 was significantly greater than the amount of seats available on WN nonstop flights to/from BOS in Summer 2021, with approximately 138,000 seats available on WN nonstop flights to/from BOS in July 2021 compared to the approximately 238,000 passengers that were traveling to/from BOS on WN in July 2019.

Other airlines have partially filled in the void left behind by the cuts that WN has made at BOS, including
(a) the addition of AA BOS-AUS/CMH/IND nonstop service,
(b) the resumption of AA BOS-STL nonstop service,
(c) the resumption of DL BOS-DFW nonstop service,
(d) the addition of G4 BOS-IND nonstop service, and
(e) B6 planning on adding BOS-MCI/MKE nonstop service.

WN re-adding BOS-DAL nonstop service is a possibility as there was strong demand to BOS from DAL on WN prior to the COVID-19 pandemic with the PDEW of BOS-DAL on WN being 109 passengers/day in 2019.

I had also previously mentioned the possibility of WN re-adding BOS-PHX nonstop service as WN had an average load factor of over 92% on BOS-PHX nonstop service 10 years ago.

The return of WN BOS-ATL nonstop service is also a possibility with the recent adds that WN has made at ATL such as the return of WN ATL-SDF/OKC nonstop service and the addition of WN ATL-JAN/LIT/MEM/MIA/MYR/ECP/PNS/OMA/SRQ nonstop service.
 
PVD523
Posts: 76
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:01 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:44 am

B6BOSfan wrote:
Southwest has struggled over the last few years to really keep what it HAS been offering at BOS going. It seems like with every new schedule, flights are slowly chopped, or frequencies are cut from 3x a day to 2x a day or 1x a day -- or just weekly.

They have become basically a hub airline for BOS, and they don't even serve all of their hubs. MCO gets a once-weekly fight from BOS. DAL isn't served. DEN had flights chopped all summer -- and continues to have limited direct service for the fall/winter -- which then limits journeys you can make from there.

Then there's the lack of the ability to book seats, something that doesn't seem like a big deal in many parts of the country, but comes back as a frustration point in the more affluent northeast.

BOS has had the ability to take on Southwest expansion -- especially now with the lack of international traffic. There's no interest from the airline to expand service.

Like others have said, if somehow Southwest could make a B6/WN merger happen, you'd see customers being hemorrhaged to the likes of Delta, American and United.

I'm still under the impression WN convinced themselves they could waltz into BOS and replicate the success they had at MHT and PVD. Understandably, their growth strategy for the region required a BOS presence. But the success they hoped for never came thanks to the dogfight for BOS' soul that B6 and DL got into, and the fare pressure from the bottom thanks to NK (and F9 for a time). What's worse is that to feed their BOS growth they cut everything at MHT and PVD that made them successful in the first place and turned their back on two markets that absolutely adored them. I agree, they now seem lost at BOS, and I'll say they seem lost in New England as a whole, and I'm very curious what their next plays will be.
 
Chemist
Posts: 933
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:48 am

I also find boarding less stressful with WN. No gate lice crowding the boarding area. A neat set of lines. You can check in 24 hrs in advance or pay a bit extra for a good boarding position. And no regional jets and having to gate-check your bags.
 
tomaheath
Posts: 701
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 9:31 am

asteriskceo wrote:
WN is awful. Get assigned seating and then we can have a discussion. The entire process is stressful.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I personally love Southwests boarding process definitely don’t find it stressful maybe the first time.
 
planecane
Posts: 1713
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:11 am

AC4500 wrote:
asteriskceo wrote:
WN is awful. Get assigned seating and then we can have a discussion. The entire process is stressful.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I actually find it be be less stressful. As long as you check-in exactly 24 hours before your flight departs (down to the very minute), you're bound to get at least B1-B15 boarding position, but you'll most likely get into group A. That easily gets you a preferable seat towards the front of the plane. The entire boarding process as a whole is much faster as well.

The problem is when you get sidetracked, lose track of time, or are just simply too busy and forget to check-in at exactly 24 hours before departure. I checked in roughly 15 minutes later than 24 hours for an OAK-PDX flight, and that got me towards the middle of group C.


It also helps a lot to be the first flight of the day or a flight that not many are connecting onto. Connecting passengers that can check in earlier can take a lot of the early boarding slots on some flights. It's also a big help to lower stress if the flight is an -800 since there are around 20 more windows/aisle seats compared to the -700 to pick from.
 
pmanni1
Posts: 376
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:09 pm

B6BOSfan wrote:
Southwest has struggled over the last few years to really keep what it HAS been offering at BOS going. It seems like with every new schedule, flights are slowly chopped, or frequencies are cut from 3x a day to 2x a day or 1x a day -- or just weekly.

They have become basically a hub airline for BOS, and they don't even serve all of their hubs. MCO gets a once-weekly fight from BOS. DAL isn't served. DEN had flights chopped all summer -- and continues to have limited direct service for the fall/winter -- which then limits journeys you can make from there.

Then there's the lack of the ability to book seats, something that doesn't seem like a big deal in many parts of the country, but comes back as a frustration point in the more affluent northeast.

BOS has had the ability to take on Southwest expansion -- especially now with the lack of international traffic. There's no interest from the airline to expand service.

Like others have said, if somehow Southwest could make a B6/WN merger happen, you'd see customers being hemorrhaged to the likes of Delta, American and United.

A problem that I see with WN at BOS is that the routes they serve only take you out of the northeast. If you want a flight anywhere within the northeast you have to fly down to BWI and connect. No nonstops to LGA,DCA,PHL,PIT,IAD,BUF etc etc.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4651
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:11 pm

PVD523 wrote:
I'm still under the impression WN convinced themselves they could waltz into BOS and replicate the success they had at MHT and PVD. Understandably, their growth strategy for the region required a BOS presence. But the success they hoped for never came thanks to the dogfight for BOS' soul that B6 and DL got into, and the fare pressure from the bottom thanks to NK (and F9 for a time). What's worse is that to feed their BOS growth they cut everything at MHT and PVD that made them successful in the first place and turned their back on two markets that absolutely adored them. I agree, they now seem lost at BOS, and I'll say they seem lost in New England as a whole, and I'm very curious what their next plays will be.


While I would expect WN to have a smaller presence at BOS than it did prior to the pandemic for the foreseeable future, I would likely expect WN to add a few more flights out of BOS since demand for WN flights to/from BOS will likely exceed the capacity currently available to/from BOS on WN as demand recovers.

WN has struggled to make some of the Midwest to BOS nonstop routes such as BOS-CMH/IND/MKE work during the wintertime as demand for WN BOS-CMH/IND/MKE nonstop service was weak during the wintertime, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

I had mentioned the possibility of WN re-adding DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service as WN was able to make DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service work after adding DEN-BOS nonstop service but prior to dropping DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service along with WN's plans to significantly expand at DEN.

WN re-adding PVD-BNA nonstop service is also a possibility with WN having recently re-added BNA-BDL/ISP nonstop service along with BNA being one of the top destinations traveled to from PVD that isn't currently served nonstop from PVD.

There are also some more nonstop routes that WN could add out of BDL such as BDL-AUS/DAL/HOU/MYR/PHX/SRQ, even if on a less-than-daily basis.

WN had previously planned on adding seasonal Saturday-only nonstop service to BNA from PWM prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, but WN dropped those plans due to the pandemic. There are a few other destinations such as ATL, DEN, and TPA that might be able to support WN nonstop service out of PWM (even if on a less-than-daily basis), and FL had also previously operated PWM-ATL nonstop service prior to the WN-FL merger.
 
av8tiongeek
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:33 pm

Has anyone heard anything about the Max emergency landing yesterday in BWI?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWA ... /KBWI/KPHX
 
ScottB
Posts: 7494
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:42 pm

B6BOSfan wrote:
They have become basically a hub airline for BOS, and they don't even serve all of their hubs. MCO gets a once-weekly fight from BOS. DAL isn't served. DEN had flights chopped all summer -- and continues to have limited direct service for the fall/winter -- which then limits journeys you can make from there.


Have you actually been in Boston in the last two years? Recovery from the pandemic in Boston and New York has significantly lagged the rest of the country. Even in May, total passenger count at BOS was still down 55% compared to the same month in 2019. B6 was at maybe 80 daily departures in April and BOS is their second-most-important market.

WN is operating five daily OAK-LAX flights today -- compared to more like a dozen in pre-pandemic times. Does that mean WN is abandoning the intra-California market, or does it mean that WN is temporarily adjusting their schedule and network to reflect the realities of a market which is still recovering from pandemic lockdowns?

sldispatcher wrote:
Why in the world would WN want to take on B6 debt, costs, culture and complexity when they can grow organically?


The key reason would be assets (slots, gates) in NYC and BOS. Also, ~4000 pilots with ATPs who'd probably be happy with a pay bump. There's also expertise in marketing to near international markets. It's really WN's only realistic shot of growing in two of the largest, high-income markets in the U.S.

trueblew wrote:
WN couldn't keep their type of product in NYC, among other markets, while keeping all the routes and customers that B6 has. The majority will flee to DL/AA/UA. At what point is a merger with B6 worth it if WN doesn't even keep the customer base in B6's largest markets?


WN doesn't need to keep all of B6's customers. They just need to keep enough of them. If you're not paying for a seat up front, what do you get on DL/AA/UA that you don't get on WN assuming non-stops to the same markets? An assigned seat? You're going to pay for that on most unless you are happy with a middle seat at the back or have status. A-List on WN will get you a window or aisle toward the front almost all the time. DL/AA/UA don't offer free internet access, either. They know some customers will leave. That's just fine if they're making money serving the remainder -- as well as likely new customers for whom B6's woeful coverage of the middle of the country just doesn't work.

jbpdx wrote:
The Biden administration is focused on expanding competition in corporate America. It’s doubtful there’ll be any mergers or buyouts
approved by the Justice Department in the foreseeable future.


Don't underestimate the political impact of thousands of B6 employees joining one of the most heavily unionized airlines.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4651
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:42 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
A problem that I see with WN at BOS is that the routes they serve only take you out of the northeast. If you want a flight anywhere within the northeast you have to fly down to BWI and connect. No nonstops to LGA,DCA,PHL,PIT,IAD,BUF etc etc.


The situation isn't nearly as bad on BOS-BWI-PIT connections with PIT being located west of BWI and BOS-BWI-PIT connections being 84 miles longer than BOS-PIT nonstop flights.

The significant amount of backtracking that is required to connect to places such as BUF, LGA, ISP, ROC, or SYR from BOS through BWI on WN is less of an issue with the nonstop service that B6 already has to BUF, LGA, JFK, EWR, ROC, and SYR from BOS.

WN adding DCA-BOS nonstop service might be a possibility with BOS being one of the top destinations traveled to from BWI on WN that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from DCA along with WN currently having some unused slots at DCA due to the significant cuts that WN made at DCA during the pandemic. WN also has a significant FF base in DC (due to its BWI hub) to support DCA-BOS nonstop service on WN. BOS is also further from DCA than CMH or PVD are, and BOS is also in a much bigger market than CMH or PVD.

WN also offers connections to BOS from some markets not currently served by B6 such as CVG, CMH, DSM, VPS, GRR, GSP, IND, JAN, MCI, LIT, SDF, MKE, MEM, MYR, OKC, OMA, ECP, PNS, SAT, GEG, TUS, TUL, and ICT.
 
av8tiongeek
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:19 pm

JBPDX - I agree.

"Don't underestimate the political impact of thousands of B6 employees joining one of the most heavily unionized airlines."
 
AC4500
Posts: 684
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:26 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I don't agree with the B1-B15 if you check in right on time though (although it matters how big a WN station you are at). I do that and being at a big WN station with lots of connectors I usually am more B30ish. Too many A-list and connectors get ahead of me. That all said I never have an issue getting my seat type of choice so it isn't that big a deal. As long as I am not right by the bathrooms the row spot doesn't matter that much to me. But as others mentioned if you care just get early bird. Its the same as the upcharge to go from basic economy fares to economy on majors anyway, usually less.

Yeah, I forgot to mention that those with connecting itineraries get priority for check-in. Perhaps that's why I got a C-position place for my one-way flight from OAK.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4447
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:59 pm

AC4500 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
I don't agree with the B1-B15 if you check in right on time though (although it matters how big a WN station you are at). I do that and being at a big WN station with lots of connectors I usually am more B30ish. Too many A-list and connectors get ahead of me. That all said I never have an issue getting my seat type of choice so it isn't that big a deal. As long as I am not right by the bathrooms the row spot doesn't matter that much to me. But as others mentioned if you care just get early bird. Its the same as the upcharge to go from basic economy fares to economy on majors anyway, usually less.

Yeah, I forgot to mention that those with connecting itineraries get priority for check-in. Perhaps that's why I got a C-position place for my one-way flight from OAK.


OAK being a big WN station also didn't help. My number is easily 30 spots different depending on how big WN is at the station.
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 114
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:11 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:04 pm

ScottB wrote:
B6BOSfan wrote:
They have become basically a hub airline for BOS, and they don't even serve all of their hubs. MCO gets a once-weekly fight from BOS. DAL isn't served. DEN had flights chopped all summer -- and continues to have limited direct service for the fall/winter -- which then limits journeys you can make from there.


Have you actually been in Boston in the last two years? Recovery from the pandemic in Boston and New York has significantly lagged the rest of the country. Even in May, total passenger count at BOS was still down 55% compared to the same month in 2019. B6 was at maybe 80 daily departures in April and BOS is their second-most-important market.

WN is operating five daily OAK-LAX flights today -- compared to more like a dozen in pre-pandemic times. Does that mean WN is abandoning the intra-California market, or does it mean that WN is temporarily adjusting their schedule and network to reflect the realities of a market which is still recovering from pandemic lockdowns?


I LIVE in Boston Scott AND flew multiple times during the middle of the pandemic. I can tell you, point blank, Southwest's service to/from BOS Is less now than it was last summer/fall during the pandemic -- and even lower vs. their previous years when everyone was thriving.

Southwest actually did one of the best jobs of any airline holding service up to at least their hubs as others were cutting flights. I flew them multiple times out of BOS during the pandemic. They don't service the business customer in Boston like a BIG chunk of the other airlines do. I'd bet that a big chunk of the passengers still not flying (40% or more) is ALL business travelers.

Their cuts began far before the pandemic began. The DAL flight, the MKE flight, all were cut -- BEFORE the pandemic hit.

They make it impossible to fly to so many of the destinations they advertise -- because of the continued amounts of cuts, or miserable one flight times they are offering.

As another user said, Southwest does spectacular across most of the USA. They are LOST when it comes to New England -- particularly Eastern New England.

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