wnflyguy wrote:

WN next Schedule release coming soon for Spring Break 2022.
Buzz has a complete full aircraft capacity being loaded.
Sounds like only a modest 5% increase for Hawaii.
The third wave of Hawaii growth not happening until Summer time once the MAX7 gets ETOPS certification.
Sounds like Domestic capacity will increase with more frequencies and returning Point to Point flying.
In addition the possibility of 3-5 additional new cities that will each have a DEN connection.
Returning International flying is said to increase the schedules only Heavy on Saturdays, minimal on Sundays and just a few connections M-F.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

From what I’ve heard and read, unless they’re ready for a full revolt of all customer facing employees, they’re not going to do a whole lot of adding at this next schedule release. Many, many, many customer service agents, ramp agents, reservations agents, and flight attendants are already ready to walk away with little/no notice according to the buzz in those groups with just one more action by the company of placing more workload on an already extremely thin workforce. It doesn’t matter if it’s 7 months out… there is a very large group of employees that appear to be on the verge of walking away if more adds come on without the slightest sign of improving the work/life balance issues (successive mandatory overtime and minimal rest day after day) that have plagued them for the last 9 months.

I would agree - I can’t see how they can say with a straight face that they plan to run a 100 percent capacity schedule, even if it’s 7-8 months away. The optics would be horrible amongst the employee groups.

New destinations out of DEN? I can’t really see much being added outside of maybe JAC and EGE. And that assumes there is even room to put them on the ramp at JAC 3x a day. HDN and MTJ have done awful LF wise over the summer - so I imagine all those ski places revert to winter only starting next year.

PVD is the largest airport east of the Mississippi (and likely in the country) without DEN service so if they are adding 3-5 new DEN spokes I would hope they are one of them, that said I wont hold my breath...

EGE would be a wonderful addition! I always try to fly WN for my snowboarding trips, since those two free checked bags sure do come in handy.

AA and UA can sometimes charge some pretty hefty fares to/from EGE... and then there's still those checked baggage fees to pay on those carriers thereafter. Please let these rumors be true!

Maybe the 5000 plus new hires are going to help with the staffing issues?

We know they "let go" a number of staff during the height of the pandemic, if some have not moved on to other jobs and want to return, would WN rehire them even with minimal salary adjustments for experience, or are they stuck on new staff with no experience and lowest possible entry salary?

wnflyguy wrote:

WN next Schedule release coming soon for Spring Break 2022.
Buzz has a complete full aircraft capacity being loaded.
Sounds like only a modest 5% increase for Hawaii.
The third wave of Hawaii growth not happening until Summer time once the MAX7 gets ETOPS certification.
Sounds like Domestic capacity will increase with more frequencies and returning Point to Point flying.
In addition the possibility of 3-5 additional new cities that will each have a DEN connection.
Returning International flying is said to increase the schedules only Heavy on Saturdays, minimal on Sundays and just a few connections M-F.

RL757PVD wrote:

PVD is the largest airport east of the Mississippi (and likely in the country) without DEN service so if they are adding 3-5 new DEN spokes I would hope they are one of them, that said I wont hold my breath...

I had mentioned the possibility of WN adding DEN-EUG/VPS/PWM/SYR nonstop service and WN re-adding DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service over in the Denver Aviation thread at viewtopic.php?p=22941689#p22940781.

I agree that the return of WN DEN-PVD nonstop service is a possibility as WN was able to make DEN-PVD nonstop service work after adding DEN-BOS nonstop service but prior to dropping DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service. PVD is one of the top destinations traveled to from DEN that is no longer served nonstop from DEN (and vice versa), and there was also a significant amount of passengers connecting to destinations west of DEN from PVD prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

I had also asked (in a separate topic over in the Travel, Polls, & Preferences section) if WN was likely to re-add DAL-BOS/CLE/DTW/PHL nonstop service in 2022 as WN was planning on resuming these routes prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and that discussion can be found at viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1464293. WN also has more than enough room at DAL to add more flights as WN is currently down to 175 daily departures out of DAL in January 2022 (due to cuts that WN has already made in its current flight schedules through at least 1/5/2022), whereas WN had operated 195 daily departures out of DAL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are also a few more nonstop routes that WN could add out of DAL such as DAL-CVG/BDL/JAN with WN having more room to add more flights out of DAL.

There are also other airlines such as DL, XP, or G4 who might seek to add more flights out of DAL if WN doesn't add more daily departures out of DAL as there is more room at DAL to accommodate additional flights on other airlines (including DL, XP, or G4) with the cuts that both WN and AS have made at DAL. AS is also currently down to 5 daily departures out of DAL (2x LAX, 1x SFO, 2x SEA) from the 13 daily departures that AS was operating out of DAL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Flflyer83 wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

WN next Schedule release coming soon for Spring Break 2022.
Buzz has a complete full aircraft capacity being loaded.
Sounds like only a modest 5% increase for Hawaii.
The third wave of Hawaii growth not happening until Summer time once the MAX7 gets ETOPS certification.
Sounds like Domestic capacity will increase with more frequencies and returning Point to Point flying.
In addition the possibility of 3-5 additional new cities that will each have a DEN connection.
Returning International flying is said to increase the schedules only Heavy on Saturdays, minimal on Sundays and just a few connections M-F.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

From what I’ve heard and read, unless they’re ready for a full revolt of all customer facing employees, they’re not going to do a whole lot of adding at this next schedule release. Many, many, many customer service agents, ramp agents, reservations agents, and flight attendants are already ready to walk away with little/no notice according to the buzz in those groups with just one more action by the company of placing more workload on an already extremely thin workforce. It doesn’t matter if it’s 7 months out… there is a very large group of employees that appear to be on the verge of walking away if more adds come on without the slightest sign of improving the work/life balance issues (successive mandatory overtime and minimal rest day after day) that have plagued them for the last 9 months.

WN unfortunately learned the Hard way with the quicker returning traffic when covid spiked downwards over summer.
It had the aircraft but it definitely did not have the staff to
Meet the requirements to fulfill the schedule additions.
WN is definitely putting a bandage on their wounds and regrouping.
Now going off the data they have From the 2021 trends. They know once the Delta Variant get under control along with anticipated Vaccination for children 5-12. Next Spring and Summer going to possibly see a bigger spike in demand for travel. So WN is on a massive hiring spree across all airside operations. From pilots to ramper there not going to roll into Spring 2022 fully staffed.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

RL757PVD wrote:

PVD is the largest airport east of the Mississippi (and likely in the country) without DEN service so if they are adding 3-5 new DEN spokes I would hope they are one of them, that said I wont hold my breath...

I agree with you on both fronts. I believe PVD-DEN is a route that should be served and that you shouldn’t hold your breath over WN serving it. The problem is that WN serves BOS-DEN and wants that service supported. As you know, WN essentially has a blockade on west-bound longer routes out of most New England airports not called Logan. MDW still serves as a connecting point, but even that frequency has been throttled. I’m surprised that UA or F9 hasn’t added the route. Don’t they both do PWM-DEN? While I hate the balance WN is trying to do to support their BOS service, I guess an airline has gotta do what an airline’s gotta do.

LotsaRunway wrote:

RL757PVD wrote:

PVD is the largest airport east of the Mississippi (and likely in the country) without DEN service so if they are adding 3-5 new DEN spokes I would hope they are one of them, that said I wont hold my breath...

I agree with you on both fronts. I believe PVD-DEN is a route that should be served and that you shouldn’t hold your breath over WN serving it. The problem is that WN serves BOS-DEN and wants that service supported. As you know, WN essentially has a blockade on west-bound longer routes out of most New England airports not called Logan. MDW still serves as a connecting point, but even that frequency has been throttled. I’m surprised that UA or F9 hasn’t added the route. Don’t they both do PWM-DEN? While I hate the balance WN is trying to do to support their BOS service, I guess an airline has gotta do what an airline’s gotta do.

WN has a lot of MAX7 coming in 2022 with DEN getting 15 additional gates. WN has stated in the recent months DEN will probably be the first WN market connected to every domestic WN destinations.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

RL757PVD wrote:

PVD is the largest airport east of the Mississippi (and likely in the country) without DEN service so if they are adding 3-5 new DEN spokes I would hope they are one of them, that said I wont hold my breath...

I agree with you on both fronts. I believe PVD-DEN is a route that should be served and that you shouldn’t hold your breath over WN serving it. The problem is that WN serves BOS-DEN and wants that service supported. As you know, WN essentially has a blockade on west-bound longer routes out of most New England airports not called Logan. MDW still serves as a connecting point, but even that frequency has been throttled. I’m surprised that UA or F9 hasn’t added the route. Don’t they both do PWM-DEN? While I hate the balance WN is trying to do to support their BOS service, I guess an airline has gotta do what an airline’s gotta do.

WN has a lot of MAX7 coming in 2022 with DEN getting 15 additional gates. WN has stated in the recent months DEN will probably be the first WN market connected to every domestic WN destinations.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

Which ones are missing? I know that CRP is one and that would be a notable add if it happens.

LotsaRunway wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

I agree with you on both fronts. I believe PVD-DEN is a route that should be served and that you shouldn’t hold your breath over WN serving it. The problem is that WN serves BOS-DEN and wants that service supported. As you know, WN essentially has a blockade on west-bound longer routes out of most New England airports not called Logan. MDW still serves as a connecting point, but even that frequency has been throttled. I’m surprised that UA or F9 hasn’t added the route. Don’t they both do PWM-DEN? While I hate the balance WN is trying to do to support their BOS service, I guess an airline has gotta do what an airline’s gotta do.

WN has a lot of MAX7 coming in 2022 with DEN getting 15 additional gates. WN has stated in the recent months DEN will probably be the first WN market connected to every domestic WN destinations.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

Which ones are missing? I know that CRP is one and that would be a notable add if it happens.

The following domestic cities do not have non-stop service from Denver...
HNL, OGG, KOA, ITO, LIH, DCA, CRP, EUG, AMA, VPS, GSP, HRL, JAN, ISP, LBB, MHT, MYR, PWM, PVD, ROC, PBI
Soon to be added to the list: BLI, SYR

https://www.southwest.com/flight/routem ... R-ROUTEMAP
Note: After clicking the link, click list view and then DEN as the departure city. This can also be done for any city in their network

Assuming that the rumor is true and that WN will connect all domestic WN to DEN, one has to assume that it won’t all happen at once. Which ones are likely to be added first and which ones last. I’m going to say that there are a couple of locations that I think making the connection is a stretch. I’m also going to say that maybe “domestic” is going to be interpreted as lower 48, although I can easily see HNL and OGG being connected in the first wave.

My guess:
HNL, OGG, AMA, LBB and PVD first.

2nd: KOA, EUG, ISP, MHT, and maybe HRL, BLI, and DCA

Last, if ever: ITO, CRP, GSP, and maybe PWM. PWM is a tough call because it has good summer demand but it is already served by others. I don’t know if WN wants to get into a long thin route with seasonal demand and competition.

LotsaRunway wrote:

Assuming that the rumor is true and that WN will connect all domestic WN to DEN, one has to assume that it won’t all happen at once. Which ones are likely to be added first and which ones last. I’m going to say that there are a couple of locations that I think making the connection is a stretch. I’m also going to say that maybe “domestic” is going to be interpreted as lower 48, although I can easily see HNL and OGG being connected in the first wave.

My guess:
HNL, OGG, AMA, LBB and PVD first.

2nd: KOA, EUG, ISP, MHT, and maybe HRL, BLI, and DCA

Last, if ever: ITO, CRP, GSP, and maybe PWM. PWM is a tough call because it has good summer demand but it is already served by others. I don’t know if WN wants to get into a long thin route with seasonal demand and competition.

I’m surprised even at last if ever wouldn’t LIH be a lot higher then ITO ?

F9 Did do PVD for a summer or two maybe 4x weekly, good service, especially for connecting and it makes it ten times easier than going to Logan

LotsaRunway wrote:

Assuming that the rumor is true and that WN will connect all domestic WN to DEN, one has to assume that it won’t all happen at once. Which ones are likely to be added first and which ones last. I’m going to say that there are a couple of locations that I think making the connection is a stretch. I’m also going to say that maybe “domestic” is going to be interpreted as lower 48, although I can easily see HNL and OGG being connected in the first wave.

My guess:
HNL, OGG, AMA, LBB and PVD first.

2nd: KOA, EUG, ISP, MHT, and maybe HRL, BLI, and DCA

Last, if ever: ITO, CRP, GSP, and maybe PWM. PWM is a tough call because it has good summer demand but it is already served by others. I don’t know if WN wants to get into a long thin route with seasonal demand and competition.

I think WN will focus on a DEN feed by over flying places like MDW,BWI,STL and BNA in 2022. I could definitely see at least one daily from places like ROC,SYR,ISP,PWM,MHT and PVD.
Out west if the MAX7 gets ETOPS certification quickly I see from DEN a daily flight to KOA,HNL,OGG,LIH. Then EUG and BLI.

Enjoy Or don’t
Flyguy

Can the Max7 make it from DEN to Hawaii sounds like a stretch with the altitude.

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ibthebigd wrote:

Can the Max7 make it from DEN to Hawaii sounds like a stretch with the altitude.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Short answer. Yes. The MAX7 can easily make Hawaii Westbound from Denver.

ibthebigd wrote:

Can the Max7 make it from DEN to Hawaii sounds like a stretch with the altitude.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yes especially with WN plan to only have 150 seats vs 167 available WN type seating on the MAX7.
During the development of the MAX7 WN pushed hard for Boeing for a aircraft that could handle High altitude,Short field and Range performance all its destinations.
This aircraft will give WN the best flexibility to offer more destinations like DEN- Hawaii, BUR/SNA-Hawaii/ east coast.
MDW-Caribbean,South/Central America,BWI-South America and Western Europe(I don’t see that for years to come) without payload restrictions.


While the MAX8 is great the MAX7 offers more flexibility throughout its entire system. I honestly don’t see anymore MAX8 in WN future once the MAX7 started arriving. I think over the next 5-10 years until Boeing builds a brand new 737 replacement aircraft WN is going to to be only taking the MAX7.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

Can the Max7 make it from DEN to Hawaii sounds like a stretch with the altitude.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yes especially with WN plan to only have 150 seats vs 167 available WN type seating on the MAX7.
During the development of the MAX7 WN pushed hard for Boeing for a aircraft that could handle High altitude,Short field and Range performance all its destinations.
This aircraft will give WN the best flexibility to offer more destinations like DEN- Hawaii, BUR/SNA-Hawaii/ east coast.
MDW-Caribbean,South/Central America,BWI-South America and Western Europe(I don’t see that for years to come) without payload restrictions.


While the MAX8 is great the MAX7 offers more flexibility throughout its entire system. I honestly don’t see anymore MAX8 in WN future once the MAX7 started arriving. I think over the next 5-10 years until Boeing builds a brand new 737 replacement aircraft WN is going to to be only taking the MAX7.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

Do we know yet with the stretch of the MAX7, but also increased capacity, will seat pitch (and width) mimic that of the -700s or the -800/MAX8s? According to their site, the -700s have 31" and -800/MAX8 have 32" and width is 17" and 17.8" (I didn't realize there were different widths too).

Is there a chance of WN restarting MHT-MDW at some time in the future? It was once served with up to 4 daily flights. I think the market could support 2x daily and perhaps add 1 daily to BNA or STL. I hope MHT-DEN returns as well as the covid spike ends and economy gets better.

How is WN doing at ORD? Any interesting rumors for MDW or ORD?

I just don't want Southwest to force everyone thru DEN I still want an option thru LAS or PHX especially in the winter.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

wnflyguy wrote:

While the MAX8 is great the MAX7 offers more flexibility throughout its entire system. I honestly don’t see anymore MAX8 in WN future once the MAX7 started arriving. I think over the next 5-10 years until Boeing builds a brand new 737 replacement aircraft WN is going to to be only taking the MAX7.

That goes against the upgauging strategy that WN has pursued for nine years, Delta for twelve, the upgauging in United Next, the upgauging that Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant have all done.

IMHO WN won't use many MAX7s for range - they'll use them to keep yields up where MAX8s are too big. And they'll keep taking MAX8s because of superior CASM which they can fill because of the 20-year evolution of going to busy airports. This isn't Grandpa's Southwest Airlines any more. WN isn't competitive in yields against DL/UA/AA yet it pays DL/UA/AA wages, so it needs to be competitive in other operating costs. If WN tries running -700s and MAX7s against Spirit or Frontier 321neos it's going to get eaten alive.

I boldly assert that WN will be operating MAX9s or 10s before the end of the decade.

timberwolf24 wrote:

How is WN doing at ORD? Any interesting rumors for MDW or ORD?

Here is a link to a post listing the load factors for WN routes out of ORD in May 2021:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456061&start=450#p22916639

I would probably expect WN to add ORD-ATL/HOU/LAX nonstop service with ATL, HOU, and LAX being three of the top destinations traveled to from Chicago on WN that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from ORD. It can also take over an hour to get to MDW or MKE from the northern or western Chicago suburbs (especially when there is rush hour traffic), whereas you can more easily get to ORD from the northern or western Chicago suburbs.

I had previously mentioned the possibility of WN re-adding MDW-GSP/TUL nonstop service as WN was getting decent load factors on both of these routes in Summer 2015. The resumption on WN MDW-GSP/TUL nonstop service would also provide easier access to more of the WN network from both GSP and TUL.

There are also a few other routes such as MDW-ISP/LIT/ROC/ICT that could be re-added by WN out of MDW.

ericm2031 wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

Can the Max7 make it from DEN to Hawaii sounds like a stretch with the altitude.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yes especially with WN plan to only have 150 seats vs 167 available WN type seating on the MAX7.
During the development of the MAX7 WN pushed hard for Boeing for a aircraft that could handle High altitude,Short field and Range performance all its destinations.
This aircraft will give WN the best flexibility to offer more destinations like DEN- Hawaii, BUR/SNA-Hawaii/ east coast.
MDW-Caribbean,South/Central America,BWI-South America and Western Europe(I don’t see that for years to come) without payload restrictions.


While the MAX8 is great the MAX7 offers more flexibility throughout its entire system. I honestly don’t see anymore MAX8 in WN future once the MAX7 started arriving. I think over the next 5-10 years until Boeing builds a brand new 737 replacement aircraft WN is going to to be only taking the MAX7.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

Do we know yet with the stretch of the MAX7, but also increased capacity, will seat pitch (and width) mimic that of the -700s or the -800/MAX8s? According to their site, the -700s have 31" and -800/MAX8 have 32" and width is 17" and 17.8" (I didn't realize there were different widths too).

that is because the -700s have the old interior while the -800s and maxs have the new heart interior, which has slimmer seats and boeing sky interior, which allows for more space. i would expect the max7 to have similar seating to the -800/max8s rather than the existing -700s

AMALH747430 wrote:

Looks like SWAPA just filed a lawsuit alleging labor law violations.

https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... ic-changes

LUV is in the air. Times have changed.

wnflyguy wrote:

MDW-Caribbean,South/Central America,BWI-South America and Western Europe(I don’t see that for years to come) without payload restrictions.

WN already has nonstop service to MBJ and SJU in the Caribbean from MDW, and WN had previously served PUJ nonstop from MDW.

GCM, NAS, and PLS are closer to MDW than MBJ or SJU are. WN adding MDW-GCM/NAS/PLS nonstop service might be possibilities (even on a less-than-daily basis) with WN already serving other Caribbean destinations nonstop from MDW.

Wneast wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

Assuming that the rumor is true and that WN will connect all domestic WN to DEN, one has to assume that it won’t all happen at once. Which ones are likely to be added first and which ones last. I’m going to say that there are a couple of locations that I think making the connection is a stretch. I’m also going to say that maybe “domestic” is going to be interpreted as lower 48, although I can easily see HNL and OGG being connected in the first wave.

My guess:
HNL, OGG, AMA, LBB and PVD first.

2nd: KOA, EUG, ISP, MHT, and maybe HRL, BLI, and DCA

Last, if ever: ITO, CRP, GSP, and maybe PWM. PWM is a tough call because it has good summer demand but it is already served by others. I don’t know if WN wants to get into a long thin route with seasonal demand and competition.

I’m surprised even at last if ever wouldn’t LIH be a lot higher then ITO ?

ITO hardly has traffic as it is. LIH has a much larger draw than ITO.

georgiabill wrote:

Is there a chance of WN restarting MHT-MDW at some time in the future? It was once served with up to 4 daily flights. I think the market could support 2x daily and perhaps add 1 daily to BNA or STL. I hope MHT-DEN returns as well as the covid spike ends and economy gets better.

MHT-MDW is still serviced, twice a day. I would also like to see BNA/STL, and MHT-DEN has to be on the horizon.

MIflyer12 wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

While the MAX8 is great the MAX7 offers more flexibility throughout its entire system. I honestly don’t see anymore MAX8 in WN future once the MAX7 started arriving. I think over the next 5-10 years until Boeing builds a brand new 737 replacement aircraft WN is going to to be only taking the MAX7.

That goes against the upgauging strategy that WN has pursued for nine years, Delta for twelve, the upgauging in United Next, the upgauging that Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant have all done.

IMHO WN won't use many MAX7s for range - they'll use them to keep yields up where MAX8s are too big. And they'll keep taking MAX8s because of superior CASM which they can fill because of the 20-year evolution of going to busy airports. This isn't Grandpa's Southwest Airlines any more. WN isn't competitive in yields against DL/UA/AA yet it pays DL/UA/AA wages, so it needs to be competitive in other operating costs. If WN tries running -700s and MAX7s against Spirit or Frontier 321neos it's going to get eaten alive.

I boldly assert that WN will be operating MAX9s or 10s before the end of the decade.

agree completely. Costs being so similar between a MAX7 and MAX8, why would WN want to fly fewer seats in a market like DEN-Hawaii where yields are not extremely great to begin with. United will trounce WN with widebodies from DEN, filling more seats and offering lower fares. WN NEEDS bigger planes to fly these longer distances in order to make money. I see WN continuing to buy bigger planes because the cost to operate them isn't significantly different than the smaller MAX planes - those extra seats are basically gravy.

ASFlyer wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

While the MAX8 is great the MAX7 offers more flexibility throughout its entire system. I honestly don’t see anymore MAX8 in WN future once the MAX7 started arriving. I think over the next 5-10 years until Boeing builds a brand new 737 replacement aircraft WN is going to to be only taking the MAX7.

That goes against the upgauging strategy that WN has pursued for nine years, Delta for twelve, the upgauging in United Next, the upgauging that Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant have all done.

IMHO WN won't use many MAX7s for range - they'll use them to keep yields up where MAX8s are too big. And they'll keep taking MAX8s because of superior CASM which they can fill because of the 20-year evolution of going to busy airports. This isn't Grandpa's Southwest Airlines any more. WN isn't competitive in yields against DL/UA/AA yet it pays DL/UA/AA wages, so it needs to be competitive in other operating costs. If WN tries running -700s and MAX7s against Spirit or Frontier 321neos it's going to get eaten alive.

I boldly assert that WN will be operating MAX9s or 10s before the end of the decade.

agree completely. Costs being so similar between a MAX7 and MAX8, why would WN want to fly fewer seats in a market like DEN-Hawaii where yields are not extremely great to begin with. United will trounce WN with widebodies from DEN, filling more seats and offering lower fares. WN NEEDS bigger planes to fly these longer distances in order to make money. I see WN continuing to buy bigger planes because the cost to operate them isn't significantly different than the smaller MAX planes - those extra seats are basically gravy.

Max 8 can't make It either direction without weight issues.

The reality is WN runs too many thin markets to justify huge quantities of MAX 9s and 10s. The 8 is about the max right sized aircraft for most of their routes and even then… many justify only 7s/700s.

I’m not saying you won’t see a MAX 9/10 order - but in a system where they seem to freely interchange aircraft without regards to capacity (I.e. running a random one off 7M8 on AMA-LAS, but not on some transcon out of BWI), they would really have to figure out how to carve out a limited, specific network for larger planes.

There is so many negative people about DEN-Hawaii on the Max 7 when it happens I think with DEN being there biggest station they won’t really get ousted by UA especially if they offer three or four daily to HNL and OGG they will be fine

Wneast wrote:

There is so many negative people about DEN-Hawaii on the Max 7 when it happens I think with DEN being there biggest station they won’t really get ousted by UA especially if they offer three or four daily to HNL and OGG they will be fine

DEN will be fine with Hawaii. They can push feed from the Midwest/east thru there that they don’t do on the west coast.

Jshank83 wrote:

Wneast wrote:

There is so many negative people about DEN-Hawaii on the Max 7 when it happens I think with DEN being there biggest station they won’t really get ousted by UA especially if they offer three or four daily to HNL and OGG they will be fine

DEN will be fine with Hawaii. They can push feed from the Midwest/east thru there that they don’t do on the west coast.

That’s exactly what I was thinking especially if they offer red eyes to DEN

swacle wrote:

ASFlyer wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

That goes against the upgauging strategy that WN has pursued for nine years, Delta for twelve, the upgauging in United Next, the upgauging that Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant have all done.

IMHO WN won't use many MAX7s for range - they'll use them to keep yields up where MAX8s are too big. And they'll keep taking MAX8s because of superior CASM which they can fill because of the 20-year evolution of going to busy airports. This isn't Grandpa's Southwest Airlines any more. WN isn't competitive in yields against DL/UA/AA yet it pays DL/UA/AA wages, so it needs to be competitive in other operating costs. If WN tries running -700s and MAX7s against Spirit or Frontier 321neos it's going to get eaten alive.

I boldly assert that WN will be operating MAX9s or 10s before the end of the decade.

agree completely. Costs being so similar between a MAX7 and MAX8, why would WN want to fly fewer seats in a market like DEN-Hawaii where yields are not extremely great to begin with. United will trounce WN with widebodies from DEN, filling more seats and offering lower fares. WN NEEDS bigger planes to fly these longer distances in order to make money. I see WN continuing to buy bigger planes because the cost to operate them isn't significantly different than the smaller MAX planes - those extra seats are basically gravy.

Max 8 can't make It either direction without weight issues.

Right, I meant to include that I knew that - but throwing a -700 on a route where the competition is competing with planes that are twice as big and where yields aren't that high to begin with is a recipe for failure. United can drop those fares and compete way more effectively on this route vs a 737-700. Not saying it won't ever happen, it just doesn't seem like a great idea. I imagine WN is looking at bigger MAX planes that are coming down the pipeline (MAX10?) to address this issue.

ASFlyer wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

While the MAX8 is great the MAX7 offers more flexibility throughout its entire system. I honestly don’t see anymore MAX8 in WN future once the MAX7 started arriving. I think over the next 5-10 years until Boeing builds a brand new 737 replacement aircraft WN is going to to be only taking the MAX7.

That goes against the upgauging strategy that WN has pursued for nine years, Delta for twelve, the upgauging in United Next, the upgauging that Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant have all done.

IMHO WN won't use many MAX7s for range - they'll use them to keep yields up where MAX8s are too big. And they'll keep taking MAX8s because of superior CASM which they can fill because of the 20-year evolution of going to busy airports. This isn't Grandpa's Southwest Airlines any more. WN isn't competitive in yields against DL/UA/AA yet it pays DL/UA/AA wages, so it needs to be competitive in other operating costs. If WN tries running -700s and MAX7s against Spirit or Frontier 321neos it's going to get eaten alive.

I boldly assert that WN will be operating MAX9s or 10s before the end of the decade.

agree completely. Costs being so similar between a MAX7 and MAX8, why would WN want to fly fewer seats in a market like DEN-Hawaii where yields are not extremely great to begin with. United will trounce WN with widebodies from DEN, filling more seats and offering lower fares. WN NEEDS bigger planes to fly these longer distances in order to make money. I see WN continuing to buy bigger planes because the cost to operate them isn't significantly different than the smaller MAX planes - those extra seats are basically gravy.

SWA is NOT buying bigger planes. Gary Kelley has put all of SWA’s future into the MAX7. AND that plane is not even certified by the FAA yet……

There are many routes where 737-700 is competing against only regional jets. Max7 is probably too many seats for those high frequency markets. Max8 is way too many seats. Wn still has plenty of need for max7.

WN needs something smaller than the MAX-7. Even the -700 is too big for some markets, and its alleged replacement (MAX-7) which is a stretch of the -700, is even more problematic for said markets.


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DaCubbyBearBar wrote:

ASFlyer wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

That goes against the upgauging strategy that WN has pursued for nine years, Delta for twelve, the upgauging in United Next, the upgauging that Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant have all done.

IMHO WN won't use many MAX7s for range - they'll use them to keep yields up where MAX8s are too big. And they'll keep taking MAX8s because of superior CASM which they can fill because of the 20-year evolution of going to busy airports. This isn't Grandpa's Southwest Airlines any more. WN isn't competitive in yields against DL/UA/AA yet it pays DL/UA/AA wages, so it needs to be competitive in other operating costs. If WN tries running -700s and MAX7s against Spirit or Frontier 321neos it's going to get eaten alive.

I boldly assert that WN will be operating MAX9s or 10s before the end of the decade.

agree completely. Costs being so similar between a MAX7 and MAX8, why would WN want to fly fewer seats in a market like DEN-Hawaii where yields are not extremely great to begin with. United will trounce WN with widebodies from DEN, filling more seats and offering lower fares. WN NEEDS bigger planes to fly these longer distances in order to make money. I see WN continuing to buy bigger planes because the cost to operate them isn't significantly different than the smaller MAX planes - those extra seats are basically gravy.

SWA is NOT buying bigger planes. Gary Kelley has put all of SWA’s future into the MAX7. AND that plane is not even certified by the FAA yet……

Gary Kelly will be gone soon. Bob Jordan will be a transitional leader to be followed by a transformational leader who *will* order larger planes. WN is going up against the big boys now and larger capacity aircraft will be essential to remain competitive.

orlandocfi wrote:

Gary Kelly will be gone soon. Bob Jordan will be a transitional leader to be followed by a transformational leader who *will* order larger planes. WN is going up against the big boys now and larger capacity aircraft will be essential to remain competitive.

Which big boys are they going to be going up against that they have not been doing for the last 10 - 20 years, or do you mean going into more major airports, they recently did MIA but left EWR, so.....

par13del wrote:

orlandocfi wrote:

Gary Kelly will be gone soon. Bob Jordan will be a transitional leader to be followed by a transformational leader who *will* order larger planes. WN is going up against the big boys now and larger capacity aircraft will be essential to remain competitive.

Which big boys are they going to be going up against that they have not been doing for the last 10 - 20 years, or do you mean going into more major airports, they recently did MIA but left EWR, so.....

You answered your own question, so…
yes, those big boys in their big boy fortress hubs.
DFW showdown, coming soon to a theatre near you…

WN rand DAL-AMA-DEN back during phase 1 of the loosening of the Wright Amendment. When the perimeter was completely replaced with the gate cap, WN discontinued the AMA-DEN portion and dropped down to only 4 AMA-DAL flights (plus the one AMA-LAS flight) per day. It always surprised me that WN didn’t keep at least one AMA-DEN as the connectivity through DEN will get you places that DAL won’t. At one point the only way for me to get to RDU from AMA was to go through LAS. DEN offers markets that DAL doesn’t with minimal backtracking from AMA as DEN is roughly the same distance from AMA as DAL. Prior to COVID, WN announced AMA-HOU daily which was another long overdue add.

It really surprised me that WN never tried to connect AMA to those two “mega cites” after DAL flights were curtailed due to the gate cap.

LotsaRunway wrote:

Assuming that the rumor is true and that WN will connect all domestic WN to DEN, one has to assume that it won’t all happen at once. Which ones are likely to be added first and which ones last. I’m going to say that there are a couple of locations that I think making the connection is a stretch. I’m also going to say that maybe “domestic” is going to be interpreted as lower 48, although I can easily see HNL and OGG being connected in the first wave.

My guess:
HNL, OGG, AMA, LBB and PVD first.

2nd: KOA, EUG, ISP, MHT, and maybe HRL, BLI, and DCA

Last, if ever: ITO, CRP, GSP, and maybe PWM. PWM is a tough call because it has good summer demand but it is already served by others. I don’t know if WN wants to get into a long thin route with seasonal demand and competition.

ASFlyer wrote:

swacle wrote:

ASFlyer wrote:

agree completely. Costs being so similar between a MAX7 and MAX8, why would WN want to fly fewer seats in a market like DEN-Hawaii where yields are not extremely great to begin with. United will trounce WN with widebodies from DEN, filling more seats and offering lower fares. WN NEEDS bigger planes to fly these longer distances in order to make money. I see WN continuing to buy bigger planes because the cost to operate them isn't significantly different than the smaller MAX planes - those extra seats are basically gravy.

Max 8 can't make It either direction without weight issues.

Right, I meant to include that I knew that - but throwing a -700 on a route where the competition is competing with planes that are twice as big and where yields aren't that high to begin with is a recipe for failure. United can drop those fares and compete way more effectively on this route vs a 737-700. Not saying it won't ever happen, it just doesn't seem like a great idea. I imagine WN is looking at bigger MAX planes that are coming down the pipeline (MAX10?) to address this issue.

If the MAX8 can't make DEN-HNL, then the 10 certainly can't. The MAX 7 (not 737-700) is the aircraft made for the job, and will do just fine.

pranav7478 wrote:

ericm2031 wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

Yes especially with WN plan to only have 150 seats vs 167 available WN type seating on the MAX7.
During the development of the MAX7 WN pushed hard for Boeing for a aircraft that could handle High altitude,Short field and Range performance all its destinations.
This aircraft will give WN the best flexibility to offer more destinations like DEN- Hawaii, BUR/SNA-Hawaii/ east coast.
MDW-Caribbean,South/Central America,BWI-South America and Western Europe(I don’t see that for years to come) without payload restrictions.


While the MAX8 is great the MAX7 offers more flexibility throughout its entire system. I honestly don’t see anymore MAX8 in WN future once the MAX7 started arriving. I think over the next 5-10 years until Boeing builds a brand new 737 replacement aircraft WN is going to to be only taking the MAX7.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

Do we know yet with the stretch of the MAX7, but also increased capacity, will seat pitch (and width) mimic that of the -700s or the -800/MAX8s? According to their site, the -700s have 31" and -800/MAX8 have 32" and width is 17" and 17.8" (I didn't realize there were different widths too).

that is because the -700s have the old interior while the -800s and maxs have the new heart interior, which has slimmer seats and boeing sky interior, which allows for more space. i would expect the max7 to have similar seating to the -800/max8s rather than the existing -700s

The MAX 7 will have 150 seats with us at WN. 150 seats also saves having to pay a 4th flight attendant.

barney captain wrote:

ASFlyer wrote:

swacle wrote:

Max 8 can't make It either direction without weight issues.

Right, I meant to include that I knew that - but throwing a -700 on a route where the competition is competing with planes that are twice as big and where yields aren't that high to begin with is a recipe for failure. United can drop those fares and compete way more effectively on this route vs a 737-700. Not saying it won't ever happen, it just doesn't seem like a great idea. I imagine WN is looking at bigger MAX planes that are coming down the pipeline (MAX10?) to address this issue.

If the MAX8 can't make DEN-HNL, then the 10 certainly can't. The MAX 7 (not 737-700) is the aircraft made for the job, and will do just fine.

my point isn't whether the plane can make it. The MAX7 may well be able to fly long distances such as this. The question was whether WN would be at a cost disadvantage using a MAX7 on such a route given the low number of seats vs a 777 or 767 that UA would most likely be using. Since they haven't announced flights from DEN at this point, I guess we can only wait and see what happens.

ASFlyer wrote:

my point isn't whether the plane can make it. The MAX7 may well be able to fly long distances such as this. The question was whether WN would be at a cost disadvantage using a MAX7 on such a route given the low number of seats vs a 777 or 767 that UA would most likely be using. Since they haven't announced flights from DEN at this point, I guess we can only wait and see what happens.

So those widebody a/c with all their added cost will still allow the major carriers to undercut WN on price?

ASFlyer wrote:

my point isn't whether the plane can make it. The MAX7 may well be able to fly long distances such as this. The question was whether WN would be at a cost disadvantage using a MAX7 on such a route given the low number of seats vs a 777 or 767 that UA would most likely be using. Since they haven't announced flights from DEN at this point, I guess we can only wait and see what happens.

I'm not sure why you think 767s and 777s have lower operating costs per seat than a MAX 7 or A32X neo for that matter. The MAX 7 is going to offer a lot fewer seats, but the trip fuel burn is in the neighborhood of one-third that of the 777. If widebodies were the magic bullet to compete with WN on price, we'd see many more of them in the domestic market.

LotsaRunway wrote:

Assuming that the rumor is true and that WN will connect all domestic WN to DEN, one has to assume that it won’t all happen at once. Which ones are likely to be added first and which ones last. I’m going to say that there are a couple of locations that I think making the connection is a stretch. I’m also going to say that maybe “domestic” is going to be interpreted as lower 48, although I can easily see HNL and OGG being connected in the first wave.

WN isn't going to fly DEN-DCA unless Congress creates more perimeter exemptions or they buy F9. They're not going to fly DEN-ITO but they will connect DEN to their other Hawaii stations with the MAX 7. If ITO gets a mainland flight, it'll be to one of LAX/OAK/LAS.

ScottB wrote:

ASFlyer wrote:

my point isn't whether the plane can make it. The MAX7 may well be able to fly long distances such as this. The question was whether WN would be at a cost disadvantage using a MAX7 on such a route given the low number of seats vs a 777 or 767 that UA would most likely be using. Since they haven't announced flights from DEN at this point, I guess we can only wait and see what happens.

I'm not sure why you think 767s and 777s have lower operating costs per seat than a MAX 7 or A32X neo for that matter. The MAX 7 is going to offer a lot fewer seats, but the trip fuel burn is in the neighborhood of one-third that of the 777. If widebodies were the magic bullet to compete with WN on price, we'd see many more of them in the domestic market.

yeah, we'll see. I realize the costs to operate a 787, 777 or a 767 are higher than that of a MAX. That's obvious. They also carry significantly more passengers to cover the costs. You don't see a lot of widebodies operating domestically because airlines compete hard on schedule. They put smaller planes on routes with higher demand so they can offer more frequency. I'm assuming WN isn't going to go with high frequency between DEN and HNL. If WN puts 3 737 MAX7's on DEN-HNL, UA will no doubt match them with bigger planes. I just don't see WN winning that battle. Nobody knows til it happens.