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SQ22
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Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:07 pm

Welcome to the Philadelphia Aviation Thread 2021. Please continue to post your news and your discussion here.

Link to previous thread:

Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2020
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:31 pm

Out with the old and in with the new. Hopefully 2021 will be better for PHL. Pros and cons of 2020(for what I can remember)

Cons:
Aer lingus and Icelandair terminated international service
AA cut some secondary European destinations
Summer PHL was restricted from having international as a whole.
Few secondary domestic cities were cut from AA
PHL went from almost having to flights to Iceland to now having none

Pros:
AA added a few destinations I never thought we’d see ie Palm Springs
Eastern Airlines as a new airline
Qatar and British Airways returned to service
JetBlue adding destinations especially the long awaited San Juan route
Frontier expanding even more
UA resuming IAD

So for 2021 what could happen?

Air Canada: possibly just increase frequencies
AA: few more cuts and adds mostly domestic
BA: possibly increasing frequency
Eastern: hard to say but I do see they sticking around for long haul
F9: still expanding but probably to one or two more cities
B6: maybe one or two more additions like LAX and Raleigh.
NK: I think they will stay stagnant besides frequency increases
UA: stagnant
QR: increasing frequency during the year
DL: probably stagnant but they were to add anything new it could be Seattle
SW: stagnant
LH: they are slated to come back in March which if that sticks would be great.
SY: nothing special so will probably stay the same as well

Look forward to hearing everyone’s thoughts for this new year
 
Cadet985
Posts: 2262
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Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:06 pm

I can see frequency increasing, but I don’t predict much in the way of new routes, at least until Q3/Q4 depending on what happens with the virus. I do think we’ll see more west coast expansion this year, and when it’s safe to travel again I think people have such cabin fever that airports and airlines will bounce back quickly.

I will say that I’d like to see Eastern eventually become a major player in the industry and become more like the original airline.

Here’s what I predict based on your list.

AC: agree
BA: agree
EA: I’m cautiously optimistic with them. Their HQ is local and if they become large enough (in several years) they could bring a lot of jobs to the area.
F9: dunno
B6: If they can get a price point and compete with AA and NK, watch out. Even with the reductions on in flight service due to the virus, I’m still hearing great things about them.
NK: dunno
UA: I could potentially see another transcon being added when the time is right.
QR: I haven’t seen or heard anything from them in months. If PHL can handle the 77W, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see EK come here.
DL: I could see them trying the PHL-CDG run again when the EU gets their stuff together.
SW: dunno
LH: Hard to say. Anything they do is going to be contingent on the EU and how they handle the remainder of COVID. I mean the EU is in their third lockdown, and I just don’t see that being good for business.
SY: From talking to a friend who was a fueler at MSP, I’m surprised they’re still around, so they’re anyone’s guess.

One reason I mentioned EK — and I may be talking out of my @$$ — but with flights between DXB and TLV, that’s another way to potentially get to TLV and avoid JFK and EWR.

I might be talking out of my @$$ with my whole response.

Marc
 
Nicknuzzii
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Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:09 pm

Frontier really has to get their stuff together at PHL. They announced a pretty large announcement last June and I don’t think one thing has come from it yet. Other airlines are running the flights and filling them, so why can’t F9? During this summer they should really be able to get up to 40 flights on peak days.
 
Philly65
Posts: 100
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:15 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:54 pm

Is Aer Lingus and icelandair just suspended or actually terminated or axed? I thought the former but haven't tracked all the changes. What about AS...2nd daily SEA or return to LAX or SFO? Agree re Frontier...appears they are growing in areas that have less COVID restrictions...and PHL is limited at this time.
I will state again most industry experts are saying we won't see pre-COVID levels for the next two to four years, but lets hope things trickle back quicker domestically and regionally.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:07 pm

Cadet985 wrote:
I can see frequency increasing, but I don’t predict much in the way of new routes, at least until Q3/Q4 depending on what happens with the virus. I do think we’ll see more west coast expansion this year, and when it’s safe to travel again I think people have such cabin fever that airports and airlines will bounce back quickly.

I will say that I’d like to see Eastern eventually become a major player in the industry and become more like the original airline.

Here’s what I predict based on your list.

AC: agree
BA: agree
EA: I’m cautiously optimistic with them. Their HQ is local and if they become large enough (in several years) they could bring a lot of jobs to the area.
F9: dunno
B6: If they can get a price point and compete with AA and NK, watch out. Even with the reductions on in flight service due to the virus, I’m still hearing great things about them.
NK: dunno
UA: I could potentially see another transcon being added when the time is right.
QR: I haven’t seen or heard anything from them in months. If PHL can handle the 77W, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see EK come here.
DL: I could see them trying the PHL-CDG run again when the EU gets their stuff together.
SW: dunno
LH: Hard to say. Anything they do is going to be contingent on the EU and how they handle the remainder of COVID. I mean the EU is in their third lockdown, and I just don’t see that being good for business.
SY: From talking to a friend who was a fueler at MSP, I’m surprised they’re still around, so they’re anyone’s guess.

One reason I mentioned EK — and I may be talking out of my @$$ — but with flights between DXB and TLV, that’s another way to potentially get to TLV and avoid JFK and EWR.

I might be talking out of my @$$ with my whole response.

Marc


Naw I don’t think you’re response is crazy. I meant to put WN for southwest not SW but glad you knew what I meant. I will say that if EK were too add service it would not be until they start receiving the 350s and 787 which are a few years from now.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:11 pm

Philly65 wrote:
Is Aer Lingus and icelandair just suspended or actually terminated or axed? I thought the former but haven't tracked all the changes. What about AS...2nd daily SEA or return to LAX or SFO? Agree re Frontier...appears they are growing in areas that have less COVID restrictions...and PHL is limited at this time.
I will state again most industry experts are saying we won't see pre-COVID levels for the next two to four years, but lets hope things trickle back quicker domestically and regionally.


For El and FI I keep getting conflicting reports because first I heard for Aer Linus at least they were terminating the route and now hearing they would try to bring it back 2022. I hope my predictions are wrong. But I do agree like everyone else as well that I won’t expect levels to be the same anytime soon
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:12 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Frontier really has to get their stuff together at PHL. They announced a pretty large announcement last June and I don’t think one thing has come from it yet. Other airlines are running the flights and filling them, so why can’t F9? During this summer they should really be able to get up to 40 flights on peak days.


Yea I saw that the Phoenix route will now start in March.
 
MDTflyer1
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:46 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:49 pm

I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.

Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/

But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4874
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:42 pm

MDTflyer1 wrote:
I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.

Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/

But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.


EA adding TATL from PHL to leisure markets is absurd. The markets American has exited for the time being were heavily dependent on the riverboat cruise industry and for those that tired of the usual Venice, Florence, Rome triangle. TATL for at least the next year will be focused on major markets, some secondary but tertiary is almost out of the question. EA has very poor reliability at the moment and seems to be focused on flying routes American Airlines is happy to discard. Not sure that's a long term game plan.
 
MDTflyer1
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:46 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:47 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
MDTflyer1 wrote:
I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.

Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/

But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.


EA adding TATL from PHL to leisure markets is absurd. The markets American has exited for the time being were heavily dependent on the riverboat cruise industry and for those that tired of the usual Venice, Florence, Rome triangle. TATL for at least the next year will be focused on major markets, some secondary but tertiary is almost out of the question. EA has very poor reliability at the moment and seems to be focused on flying routes American Airlines is happy to discard. Not sure that's a long term game plan.



Which is why I stated if EA were to make such an announcement in 2021, any TATL service would likely not start until Spring 2022... And I agree for EA to make it, they need to address their reliability issues. Again, I mentioned in my previous post for EA to have any sort of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to be able to operate a consistent schedule. Something they have yet to prove. To me their whole strategy seems questionable like you alluded to. Operating a widebody fleet to secondary leisure markets discarded by the majors and being reliant on nothing but O&D traffic seems destined to fail. Although I do hope EA succeeds since they are based in Wayne and a successful EA would be good for the entire PHL region. Given EA's track record of 'absurd' route announcements like PHL-MEX (another AA orphaned route), the idea of EA announcing TATL from PHL in 2021 for a 2022 start is not that far-fetched. Like many others though, I would be highly skeptical of how successful an EA 2022 (if they make it that long) foray into a crowded TATL market could be.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:45 am

MDTflyer1 wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
MDTflyer1 wrote:
I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.

Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/

But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.


EA adding TATL from PHL to leisure markets is absurd. The markets American has exited for the time being were heavily dependent on the riverboat cruise industry and for those that tired of the usual Venice, Florence, Rome triangle. TATL for at least the next year will be focused on major markets, some secondary but tertiary is almost out of the question. EA has very poor reliability at the moment and seems to be focused on flying routes American Airlines is happy to discard. Not sure that's a long term game plan.



Which is why I stated if EA were to make such an announcement in 2021, any TATL service would likely not start until Spring 2022... And I agree for EA to make it, they need to address their reliability issues. Again, I mentioned in my previous post for EA to have any sort of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to be able to operate a consistent schedule. Something they have yet to prove. To me their whole strategy seems questionable like you alluded to. Operating a widebody fleet to secondary leisure markets discarded by the majors and being reliant on nothing but O&D traffic seems destined to fail. Although I do hope EA succeeds since they are based in Wayne and a successful EA would be good for the entire PHL region. Given EA's track record of 'absurd' route announcements like PHL-MEX (another AA orphaned route), the idea of EA announcing TATL from PHL in 2021 for a 2022 start is not that far-fetched. Like many others though, I would be highly skeptical of how successful an EA 2022 (if they make it that long) foray into a crowded TATL market could be.


A few days ago on Wikipedia I saw on Eastern page that London Gatwick was a new destination to start in May but then they took it down. Obviously it’s hard to depend on Wikipedia but I wonder if that’s a sign of them looking to go transatlantic. If this is to be true I have a feeling it would be from PHL only because it’s too much competition to London from MIA, BOS, and NYC. But with EA route choosing whose knows.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26679
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:06 am

MDTflyer1 wrote:
I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.

Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/

But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.


Eastern is hubbed at MIA and JFK, not PHL, but regardless it doesn’t operate a hub in a traditional sense since it relies on local traffic. Secondary Europe flying on AA from PHL is largely dependent on feed. I think EA may explore adding Europe, but it will be from JFK and MIA where the local market is infinitely larger.
 
usairways85
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Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:11 pm

Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.
 
MDTflyer1
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:46 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:10 am

Sorry, I should have been more clear with my initial 2021 prediction for EA in PHL. For me, EA is one to watch out for because of their unpredictability. Eastern's (mostly) off the wall route announcements like PAP are similar to F9 so it is always interesting to see what their network planners come up with. Without an interline or codeshare agreement within the next year or two to feed these long thin routes and better reliability, I do not see how EA can be successful in PHL or elsewhere long term. Hopefully, they can work out the kinks though.

Is PHL still planning on consolidating all cargo ops into one area at some point in the future or has those plans changed?
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 967
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:16 am

usairways85 wrote:
Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.

I will play the other side here. Eastern is trying to simulate demand by starting routes that don't have competitors in them. I will reference wendover production videos and that according to his data low cost carriers that have multiple hubs and fly on routes that have no competition it sometimes leads to profitability. Sure there is massive risk involved and what I cited is not a fact. It's a guess into Eastern Airlines dart board routes. Honestly I look forward to what they can add to PHL. Possible flights to South America or more beaches in Central America. Also helps we are the 8th largest MSA in the U.S.
 
gdavis003
Posts: 1128
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:38 am

PHLspecial wrote:
usairways85 wrote:
Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.

I will play the other side here. Eastern is trying to simulate demand by starting routes that don't have competitors in them. I will reference wendover production videos and that according to his data low cost carriers that have multiple hubs and fly on routes that have no competition it sometimes leads to profitability. Sure there is massive risk involved and what I cited is not a fact. It's a guess into Eastern Airlines dart board routes. Honestly I look forward to what they can add to PHL. Possible flights to South America or more beaches in Central America. Also helps we are the 8th largest MSA in the U.S.


I would certainly love to see Eastern succeed at PHL to where they’re able to add TATL leisure routes with low fares. As a college student in Mercer County, naturally looking to save money, for a trip to Europe in early 2020, pre-COVID, the fares out of EWR to Europe and back were astronomically cheaper compared to PHL. It’s as easy to get to PHL as it is EWR from Mercer County, so at that point, it’s a toss up between fares if you’re looking cheap. I was astounded at how much cheaper it was to fly TATL out of EWR. If Eastern is able to add low-cost TATL leisure flying out of PHL eventually, I would purchase a ticket instantly
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4874
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:53 pm

gdavis003 wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
usairways85 wrote:
Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.

I will play the other side here. Eastern is trying to simulate demand by starting routes that don't have competitors in them. I will reference wendover production videos and that according to his data low cost carriers that have multiple hubs and fly on routes that have no competition it sometimes leads to profitability. Sure there is massive risk involved and what I cited is not a fact. It's a guess into Eastern Airlines dart board routes. Honestly I look forward to what they can add to PHL. Possible flights to South America or more beaches in Central America. Also helps we are the 8th largest MSA in the U.S.


I would certainly love to see Eastern succeed at PHL to where they’re able to add TATL leisure routes with low fares. As a college student in Mercer County, naturally looking to save money, for a trip to Europe in early 2020, pre-COVID, the fares out of EWR to Europe and back were astronomically cheaper compared to PHL. It’s as easy to get to PHL as it is EWR from Mercer County, so at that point, it’s a toss up between fares if you’re looking cheap. I was astounded at how much cheaper it was to fly TATL out of EWR. If Eastern is able to add low-cost TATL leisure flying out of PHL eventually, I would purchase a ticket instantly


Low cost, TATL to anywhere is likely to become another victim of the pandemic. The future of leisure travel (international) will be a lot more complicated, regimented, and perhaps a lot less accessible than it was until 2019. Pre-COVID, if fares to Europe were cheaper out of EWR than PHL that is simply a function of competition and scale. EWR was, and is still, dominated by UA and Star Alliance partners to Europe, but EWR's catchment does include the traffic that goes out of JFK as well, from a regional perspective, and it is by definition so much bigger. PHL has limited competition with AA essentially the sole carrier to most markets in Europe it serves, augmented by BA, with LH being the only other game in town since AF/DL pulled out.

I don't see EA becoming a major factor at PHL or a major player anywhere for that matter. The business model it follows is decidedly dated and not for the times we are now living in. EA will succeed at surviving the immediate through the transport of cargo to the regions it flies to, and perhaps even be a relevant force in 1 or 2 Latin America markets on the VFR front, but it won't be servicing business travel demand, whatever it may be now or in the future. EA's planes are too large to make money carrying passengers and its reliability is also questionable. It can succeed as a niche player, or it will simply fold but I don't see it as a major threat to any major carrier. Many of the routes it is launching didn't work for the majors who used smaller jets and had at their disposal, big hubs to feed traffic onto those flights.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6713
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:02 pm

If EA sees PHL as a fertile ground to try new routes, then you can bet the ULCCs see that also. I think we will see both F9 and NK grow in PHL if AA takes its time to bring back capacity there.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 828
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:56 pm

usairways85 wrote:
Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.


At this point it's either nine airlines flying to FLL or attempting new routes not flown albeit with a widebody can make it problematic. I assume Eastern has some primarily analysis that would say these routes might work but right now it's back to throwing darts at the dart board.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:07 pm

Selfishly I'm glad that EA took a chance on PHL as they could have easily went to another bigger metropolis airport like Washington, Chicago ect (granted they could still start service there). I am hopeful that they do become successful. One thing that is annoying with them is that they are horrible with updating their website especially with route selections. They still have MIA and PAP as route options when they are not even servicing or planning to service the routes. MEX is not even available yet to buy tickets. So as well all know they still got work to do to get better as a company.
 
gdavis003
Posts: 1128
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:23 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
gdavis003 wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
I will play the other side here. Eastern is trying to simulate demand by starting routes that don't have competitors in them. I will reference wendover production videos and that according to his data low cost carriers that have multiple hubs and fly on routes that have no competition it sometimes leads to profitability. Sure there is massive risk involved and what I cited is not a fact. It's a guess into Eastern Airlines dart board routes. Honestly I look forward to what they can add to PHL. Possible flights to South America or more beaches in Central America. Also helps we are the 8th largest MSA in the U.S.


I would certainly love to see Eastern succeed at PHL to where they’re able to add TATL leisure routes with low fares. As a college student in Mercer County, naturally looking to save money, for a trip to Europe in early 2020, pre-COVID, the fares out of EWR to Europe and back were astronomically cheaper compared to PHL. It’s as easy to get to PHL as it is EWR from Mercer County, so at that point, it’s a toss up between fares if you’re looking cheap. I was astounded at how much cheaper it was to fly TATL out of EWR. If Eastern is able to add low-cost TATL leisure flying out of PHL eventually, I would purchase a ticket instantly


Low cost, TATL to anywhere is likely to become another victim of the pandemic. The future of leisure travel (international) will be a lot more complicated, regimented, and perhaps a lot less accessible than it was until 2019. Pre-COVID, if fares to Europe were cheaper out of EWR than PHL that is simply a function of competition and scale. EWR was, and is still, dominated by UA and Star Alliance partners to Europe, but EWR's catchment does include the traffic that goes out of JFK as well, from a regional perspective, and it is by definition so much bigger. PHL has limited competition with AA essentially the sole carrier to most markets in Europe it serves, augmented by BA, with LH being the only other game in town since AF/DL pulled out.

I don't see EA becoming a major factor at PHL or a major player anywhere for that matter. The business model it follows is decidedly dated and not for the times we are now living in. EA will succeed at surviving the immediate through the transport of cargo to the regions it flies to, and perhaps even be a relevant force in 1 or 2 Latin America markets on the VFR front, but it won't be servicing business travel demand, whatever it may be now or in the future. EA's planes are too large to make money carrying passengers and its reliability is also questionable. It can succeed as a niche player, or it will simply fold but I don't see it as a major threat to any major carrier. Many of the routes it is launching didn't work for the majors who used smaller jets and had at their disposal, big hubs to feed traffic onto those flights.


I certainly agree. Low-cost, TATL will not return for many years to come more than likely; there is a very grim outlook. In the end though, when it does return, AA will continue to lose out on TATL leisure travel out of PHL with the fares that they had when I was searching (FWIW, I was flying to LHR, and I decided to take two days in LIS to finish the trip because it was unbelievably inexpensive and to visit a city I had not seen before. Flew UA on EWR-LHR and LIS-EWR), especially to people in NJ who are situated in a position to where they can comfortably choose between EWR and PHL, and if they are not mileage members, they'll go with the cheaper fare. I agree that it probably will not be EA who is able to do this when the time does come for leisure TATL travel to return, but it certainly hampers the TATL future of PHL to have the TATL fares that were in place pre-pandemic.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:01 pm

Bigant0408 wrote:
MEX is not even available yet to buy tickets.


That's interesting and somewhat concerning. PHL-MEX was available for sale last week. Looks like Eastern zeroed out reservations but the schedule is still being displayed on Google Flights.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:36 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Bigant0408 wrote:
MEX is not even available yet to buy tickets.


That's interesting and somewhat concerning. PHL-MEX was available for sale last week. Looks like Eastern zeroed out reservations but the schedule is still being displayed on Google Flights.


Yea that's what bothers me with them with their website. They even have Toronto to MIA and GEO as selections yet no announcement about these flights nor are they available to be booked. So who knows what's going on behind the scenes at EA. Guess we'll see what happens. SDQ right now is the only "guaranteed" route for Philly
 
TheFlyGuy
Posts: 31
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:10 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:05 am

AA brought back the IPT (Williamsport) route to PHL. Interesting since it was just moved to CLT over the summer and then that route was terminated as a result of COVID.
https://www.sungazette.com/uncategorize ... n-january/
 
aerace
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:08 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:23 am

Bigant0408 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Bigant0408 wrote:
MEX is not even available yet to buy tickets.


That's interesting and somewhat concerning. PHL-MEX was available for sale last week. Looks like Eastern zeroed out reservations but the schedule is still being displayed on Google Flights.


Yea that's what bothers me with them with their website. They even have Toronto to MIA and GEO as selections yet no announcement about these flights nor are they available to be booked. So who knows what's going on behind the scenes at EA. Guess we'll see what happens. SDQ right now is the only "guaranteed" route for Philly


I've been checking pretty often from the jump and I hadn't seen any pricing at all since loading PHL-MEX. Maybe they are still awaiting government approval before officially putting up for sale?
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:18 am

aerace wrote:
Bigant0408 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

That's interesting and somewhat concerning. PHL-MEX was available for sale last week. Looks like Eastern zeroed out reservations but the schedule is still being displayed on Google Flights.


Yea that's what bothers me with them with their website. They even have Toronto to MIA and GEO as selections yet no announcement about these flights nor are they available to be booked. So who knows what's going on behind the scenes at EA. Guess we'll see what happens. SDQ right now is the only "guaranteed" route for Philly


I've been checking pretty often from the jump and I hadn't seen any pricing at all since loading PHL-MEX. Maybe they are still awaiting government approval before officially putting up for sale?


Could be a strong possibility for government approval
 
airlineworker
Posts: 421
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:30 am

TheFlyGuy wrote:
AA brought back the IPT (Williamsport) route to PHL. Interesting since it was just moved to CLT over the summer and then that route was terminated as a result of COVID.
https://www.sungazette.com/uncategorize ... n-january/


AA did the same thing to HVN, but the HVN-PHL arrival time is after 7pm making for fewer connections. IPT and SWF have an afternoon arrival times, much better for more connections. On Tuesday and Wednesday, all connecting flights require an overnight stay. AA has planned to fail and Tuesday and Wednesday HVN-PHL will be ferry flights.
 
aerace
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:08 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:16 pm

As Ishrion reported on the AA thread, PHL gaining ECP and VPS seasonal Saturday service starting May 8th. AA continues to fill the Florida holes from PHL. I think all that's left would be Gainesville and Tallahassee where AA already serves from the other hubs?

Also looks like AS is back on PHL-SFO daily from March 17th.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:12 pm

aerace wrote:
As Ishrion reported on the AA thread, PHL gaining ECP and VPS seasonal Saturday service starting May 8th. AA continues to fill the Florida holes from PHL. I think all that's left would be Gainesville and Tallahassee where AA already serves from the other hubs?

Also looks like AS is back on PHL-SFO daily from March 17th.


PHL-GNV would be very convenient for me. It’s definitely not a sun market though.

AS schedule is only accurate until March 17th.
 
usairways85
Posts: 4272
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:16 pm

It would be nice if they had the larger aircraft to fly some of the busier Florida routes. My PHL-PBI-PHL flights on E175s the past few weeks were both 95% full and offering $400 / $100 vouchers respectively.
 
aerace
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:08 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:28 pm

usairways85 wrote:
It would be nice if they had the larger aircraft to fly some of the busier Florida routes. My PHL-PBI-PHL flights on E175s the past few weeks were both 95% full and offering $400 / $100 vouchers respectively.


Meanwhile I flew EYW-PHL on an A319 last month and there were maybe 70 pax. FWIW this was a Wednesday evening flight.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:14 pm

aerace wrote:
As Ishrion reported on the AA thread, PHL gaining ECP and VPS seasonal Saturday service starting May 8th. AA continues to fill the Florida holes from PHL. I think all that's left would be Gainesville and Tallahassee where AA already serves from the other hubs?

Also looks like AS is back on PHL-SFO daily from March 17th.


Nice expansion by AA since FL is the hotspot right now for travel. Also glad to see AS returning service back on this route especially after loosing LAX and PDX.
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 967
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:28 am

What are some state of PHL capital projects at?

AA projects
$ 900M Terminal B & C improvements, had we heard about anything about this project?
The Flagship Lounge, was that ever completed?

Septa/Amtrak projects
Upgrade the platforms, grant was approved last year, so we shall see all the upgrades if they are coming or not.
Connection to the Northeast Corridor. This is very unlikely to happen though I would argue would be a major upgrade for Philadelphia.

Cargo City
In 2017 PHL brought the Henderson land for future growth in cargo. PHL has talked about being more competitive in the cargo market, so it remains to be seen what PHL is going to do with that land.

Random notes:
I looked at some of the International Passenger numbers over the last ten years.
Year | Passengers (Million) Enplanements
2010 | 1.86
2011 | 1.98
2012 | 1.98
2013 | 1.97
2014 | 2.04
2015 | 2.04
2016 | 1.99
2017 | 1.84
2018 | 1.87
2019 | 2.04

I'm not sure if I'm making the wrong insight here, after the merger between US and AA the international numbers was stagnate even after AA making PHL TATL hub in 2017? FI and EL seemed to help with the international numbers but that is small compared to AA. So I guess a lot of the passengers that fly internationally through PHL is awarded travelers?
My whole point about this post I'm worried about AA and PHL TATL future. I would guess they have a grand plan for 2022 or 2023 TATL, hopefully PHL will still be part of that picture.

Right now PHL is a base for 787-8 and probably for the foreseeable future Would PHL have a base for the B777-200ER or would it be flown in from DFW and ORD.

My hopes are high for PHL to make a recovery late 2021 and 2022!
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:39 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
What are some state of PHL capital projects at?

AA projects
$ 900M Terminal B & C improvements, had we heard about anything about this project?
The Flagship Lounge, was that ever completed?

Septa/Amtrak projects
Upgrade the platforms, grant was approved last year, so we shall see all the upgrades if they are coming or not.
Connection to the Northeast Corridor. This is very unlikely to happen though I would argue would be a major upgrade for Philadelphia.

Cargo City
In 2017 PHL brought the Henderson land for future growth in cargo. PHL has talked about being more competitive in the cargo market, so it remains to be seen what PHL is going to do with that land.

Random notes:
I looked at some of the International Passenger numbers over the last ten years.
Year | Passengers (Million) Enplanements
2010 | 1.86
2011 | 1.98
2012 | 1.98
2013 | 1.97
2014 | 2.04
2015 | 2.04
2016 | 1.99
2017 | 1.84
2018 | 1.87
2019 | 2.04

I'm not sure if I'm making the wrong insight here, after the merger between US and AA the international numbers was stagnate even after AA making PHL TATL hub in 2017? FI and EL seemed to help with the international numbers but that is small compared to AA. So I guess a lot of the passengers that fly internationally through PHL is awarded travelers?
My whole point about this post I'm worried about AA and PHL TATL future. I would guess they have a grand plan for 2022 or 2023 TATL, hopefully PHL will still be part of that picture.

Right now PHL is a base for 787-8 and probably for the foreseeable future Would PHL have a base for the B777-200ER or would it be flown in from DFW and ORD.

My hopes are high for PHL to make a recovery late 2021 and 2022!


IMO I still think AA will still be a TATL gateway for PHL but not as strong as it was with their focus now shifting somewhat to New York. At the current moment their might be one or two more routes that could possibly shift back to JFK like Zurich. AA has invested a lot in PHL just to give up all international travel. Only time will tell but I am hopefully especially seeing that QR and BA for OneWorld purposes are still flying their routes granted on a less than daily basis.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:10 pm

PHL TATL gateway will come back but it’ll just be a slow and long road. I think come 2026-2027 we will see more destinations then we had in 2019.
 
flyboy7974
Posts: 1427
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2003 4:35 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:06 am

Seems like Eastern has suspended PHL ops, website was showing flights in February but today at airport was told March 28.
 
mjba257
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:21 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:16 am

PHL will slowly return to glory bigger and better than before. Once AA gets their senses together and demand returns, perhaps they can operate a TATL op out of PHL rivaling UA @ EWR
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 967
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:49 am

If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321

BA
LHR 1.4x 350

LH
FRA 1x 333

EI
DUB 1x 321

QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W
 
User avatar
ChrisNH38
Posts: 374
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 16, 2021 1:45 pm

flyboy7974 wrote:
Seems like Eastern has suspended PHL ops, website was showing flights in February but today at airport was told March 28.

They’re nowhere to be seen up here at BOS, too.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:11 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321

BA
LHR 1.4x 350

LH
FRA 1x 333

EI
DUB 1x 321

QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W


For 2024? I think this schedule is way to conservative. Not only is it a lot of down gauging there’s a lot less frequencies too.
Last edited by Nicknuzzii on Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
aerace
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:08 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:17 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321

BA
LHR 1.4x 350

LH
FRA 1x 333

EI
DUB 1x 321

QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W


I wouldn't be surprised to see MAN through EI if that winds up working for them.
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 967
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:06 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321

BA
LHR 1.4x 350

LH
FRA 1x 333

EI
DUB 1x 321

QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W


For 2024? I think this schedule is way to conservative. Not only is it a lot of down gauging there’s a lot less frequencies too.

You are probably right it's very conservative. I would think think PHL would have 10 788 based here and 2-4 772 in the future. Since in the past PHL had 12-14 a330 and 5-6 763. So yeah probably can do higher on their yearly routes. I just don't know if they will see more 772 or 789 for commonality.
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 967
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:09 pm

aerace wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321

BA
LHR 1.4x 350

LH
FRA 1x 333

EI
DUB 1x 321

QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W


I wouldn't be surprised to see MAN through EI if that winds up working for them.

It's very possible it could work for them. I was thinking about AA running the route again but I'm not sure. AA is not even running cargo only flights to MAN so yeah it would be EI. Though I would think AA would run this route with a widebody for the pharma products.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:26 pm

Looks like Eastern has pushed back there MEX start date to May 28th 2021.
 
User avatar
Rookie87
Posts: 335
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:33 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:38 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321

BA
LHR 1.4x 350

LH
FRA 1x 333

EI
DUB 1x 321

QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W


For 2024? I think this schedule is way to conservative. Not only is it a lot of down gauging there’s a lot less frequencies too.

You are probably right it's very conservative. I would think think PHL would have 10 788 based here and 2-4 772 in the future. Since in the past PHL had 12-14 a330 and 5-6 763. So yeah probably can do higher on their yearly routes. I just don't know if they will see more 772 or 789 for commonality.


I highly doubt PHL would see more 772s. Those were brought in specifically for LHR. Now the 789 i could see to upgauge the 788 routes as demand grows.
Also, I am skeptical about ZRH going back to JFK considering why it was moved to PHL in the first place (supposedly a contract lost) and with pharma in PA being how it is id guess ZRH should stick, maybe.

I am curious and looking forward to what PHL will become when demand returns and the 321s start coming. AA now has a much more consistent and better product than they had before with the 767, 757 and A330 combo. The narrowbody fleet getting retrofitted and the NEO being more common in PHL as well. Great times are ahead post pandemic
 
onwFan
Posts: 676
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:57 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321

BA
LHR 1.4x 350

LH
FRA 1x 333

EI
DUB 1x 321

QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W

I am sure most of the routes can go 1x daily. I hope that AA would consider returning to PHL-BRU/FRA/MUC/TXL and possibly DUS with the A321XLR. Germany is one gaping hole in AA’s TATL network from the North-East. PRG is bound to come back into the map as well.
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 724
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:50 pm

According to Crankyflier LH has cut back PHL scheduling amount a few other cities

"Lufthansa cut back March schedules with cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, and Philadelphia seeing only weekly flights."

IMO seeing LH coming back at all is good enough for me.
 
usairways85
Posts: 4272
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:57 pm

Bigant0408 wrote:
According to Crankyflier LH has cut back PHL scheduling amount a few other cities

"Lufthansa cut back March schedules with cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, and Philadelphia seeing only weekly flights."

IMO seeing LH coming back at all is good enough for me.

I agree that it is good they haven't cut it completely. I think we are going to see a lot more of this across all airlines. The start of the summer schedule will be more like June instead of the normal March/April with a 2nd increase in May/June. AA has done this already by delaying the restart of a number of TA flights.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:17 pm

Very disappointed we haven’t seen any love from Frontier lately. It seems like their focus is on MIA and LAS right now. Hopefully this changes soon and new routes or frequencies are announced!
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