Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Cadet985 wrote:I can see frequency increasing, but I don’t predict much in the way of new routes, at least until Q3/Q4 depending on what happens with the virus. I do think we’ll see more west coast expansion this year, and when it’s safe to travel again I think people have such cabin fever that airports and airlines will bounce back quickly.
I will say that I’d like to see Eastern eventually become a major player in the industry and become more like the original airline.
Here’s what I predict based on your list.
AC: agree
BA: agree
EA: I’m cautiously optimistic with them. Their HQ is local and if they become large enough (in several years) they could bring a lot of jobs to the area.
F9: dunno
B6: If they can get a price point and compete with AA and NK, watch out. Even with the reductions on in flight service due to the virus, I’m still hearing great things about them.
NK: dunno
UA: I could potentially see another transcon being added when the time is right.
QR: I haven’t seen or heard anything from them in months. If PHL can handle the 77W, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see EK come here.
DL: I could see them trying the PHL-CDG run again when the EU gets their stuff together.
SW: dunno
LH: Hard to say. Anything they do is going to be contingent on the EU and how they handle the remainder of COVID. I mean the EU is in their third lockdown, and I just don’t see that being good for business.
SY: From talking to a friend who was a fueler at MSP, I’m surprised they’re still around, so they’re anyone’s guess.
One reason I mentioned EK — and I may be talking out of my @$$ — but with flights between DXB and TLV, that’s another way to potentially get to TLV and avoid JFK and EWR.
I might be talking out of my @$$ with my whole response.
Marc
Philly65 wrote:Is Aer Lingus and icelandair just suspended or actually terminated or axed? I thought the former but haven't tracked all the changes. What about AS...2nd daily SEA or return to LAX or SFO? Agree re Frontier...appears they are growing in areas that have less COVID restrictions...and PHL is limited at this time.
I will state again most industry experts are saying we won't see pre-COVID levels for the next two to four years, but lets hope things trickle back quicker domestically and regionally.
Nicknuzzii wrote:Frontier really has to get their stuff together at PHL. They announced a pretty large announcement last June and I don’t think one thing has come from it yet. Other airlines are running the flights and filling them, so why can’t F9? During this summer they should really be able to get up to 40 flights on peak days.
MDTflyer1 wrote:I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.
Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/
But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.
ContinentalEWR wrote:MDTflyer1 wrote:I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.
Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/
But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.
EA adding TATL from PHL to leisure markets is absurd. The markets American has exited for the time being were heavily dependent on the riverboat cruise industry and for those that tired of the usual Venice, Florence, Rome triangle. TATL for at least the next year will be focused on major markets, some secondary but tertiary is almost out of the question. EA has very poor reliability at the moment and seems to be focused on flying routes American Airlines is happy to discard. Not sure that's a long term game plan.
MDTflyer1 wrote:ContinentalEWR wrote:MDTflyer1 wrote:I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.
Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/
But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.
EA adding TATL from PHL to leisure markets is absurd. The markets American has exited for the time being were heavily dependent on the riverboat cruise industry and for those that tired of the usual Venice, Florence, Rome triangle. TATL for at least the next year will be focused on major markets, some secondary but tertiary is almost out of the question. EA has very poor reliability at the moment and seems to be focused on flying routes American Airlines is happy to discard. Not sure that's a long term game plan.
Which is why I stated if EA were to make such an announcement in 2021, any TATL service would likely not start until Spring 2022... And I agree for EA to make it, they need to address their reliability issues. Again, I mentioned in my previous post for EA to have any sort of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to be able to operate a consistent schedule. Something they have yet to prove. To me their whole strategy seems questionable like you alluded to. Operating a widebody fleet to secondary leisure markets discarded by the majors and being reliant on nothing but O&D traffic seems destined to fail. Although I do hope EA succeeds since they are based in Wayne and a successful EA would be good for the entire PHL region. Given EA's track record of 'absurd' route announcements like PHL-MEX (another AA orphaned route), the idea of EA announcing TATL from PHL in 2021 for a 2022 start is not that far-fetched. Like many others though, I would be highly skeptical of how successful an EA 2022 (if they make it that long) foray into a crowded TATL market could be.
MDTflyer1 wrote:I would not be too surprised to see EA announce service to some secondary European markets from PHL in the second half of 2021. My guess is if they make an announcement along those lines, the routes probably would start in the Spring of 2022. With AA retreating from markets like BUD and PRG, there is opportunity for EA to jump on those routes 2x to 3x times a week. Mike Duggan, director of international cargo ops for EA, stated back in September the company was looking at opportunities in Europe. Of course he was more discussing cargo opportunities, but I am sure EA is looking at passenger TATL opportunities as well.
Source: https://theloadstar.com/us-passenger-ca ... ter-fleet/
But for EA to have any chance of staying power in PHL or elsewhere, they need to improve their reliability. With that being said, if I had to pick one airline to watch for the year in PHL, it would be EA.
usairways85 wrote:Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.
PHLspecial wrote:usairways85 wrote:Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.
I will play the other side here. Eastern is trying to simulate demand by starting routes that don't have competitors in them. I will reference wendover production videos and that according to his data low cost carriers that have multiple hubs and fly on routes that have no competition it sometimes leads to profitability. Sure there is massive risk involved and what I cited is not a fact. It's a guess into Eastern Airlines dart board routes. Honestly I look forward to what they can add to PHL. Possible flights to South America or more beaches in Central America. Also helps we are the 8th largest MSA in the U.S.
gdavis003 wrote:PHLspecial wrote:usairways85 wrote:Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.
I will play the other side here. Eastern is trying to simulate demand by starting routes that don't have competitors in them. I will reference wendover production videos and that according to his data low cost carriers that have multiple hubs and fly on routes that have no competition it sometimes leads to profitability. Sure there is massive risk involved and what I cited is not a fact. It's a guess into Eastern Airlines dart board routes. Honestly I look forward to what they can add to PHL. Possible flights to South America or more beaches in Central America. Also helps we are the 8th largest MSA in the U.S.
I would certainly love to see Eastern succeed at PHL to where they’re able to add TATL leisure routes with low fares. As a college student in Mercer County, naturally looking to save money, for a trip to Europe in early 2020, pre-COVID, the fares out of EWR to Europe and back were astronomically cheaper compared to PHL. It’s as easy to get to PHL as it is EWR from Mercer County, so at that point, it’s a toss up between fares if you’re looking cheap. I was astounded at how much cheaper it was to fly TATL out of EWR. If Eastern is able to add low-cost TATL leisure flying out of PHL eventually, I would purchase a ticket instantly
usairways85 wrote:Eastern is practically throwing darts at a wall and coming up with some relatively obscure routes...on widebodies nonetheless, cancelling some routes before they start, and close in cancelling some flights due to mechanical issues / low LF. They do not exactly sound like an airline to watch out for.
ContinentalEWR wrote:gdavis003 wrote:PHLspecial wrote:I will play the other side here. Eastern is trying to simulate demand by starting routes that don't have competitors in them. I will reference wendover production videos and that according to his data low cost carriers that have multiple hubs and fly on routes that have no competition it sometimes leads to profitability. Sure there is massive risk involved and what I cited is not a fact. It's a guess into Eastern Airlines dart board routes. Honestly I look forward to what they can add to PHL. Possible flights to South America or more beaches in Central America. Also helps we are the 8th largest MSA in the U.S.
I would certainly love to see Eastern succeed at PHL to where they’re able to add TATL leisure routes with low fares. As a college student in Mercer County, naturally looking to save money, for a trip to Europe in early 2020, pre-COVID, the fares out of EWR to Europe and back were astronomically cheaper compared to PHL. It’s as easy to get to PHL as it is EWR from Mercer County, so at that point, it’s a toss up between fares if you’re looking cheap. I was astounded at how much cheaper it was to fly TATL out of EWR. If Eastern is able to add low-cost TATL leisure flying out of PHL eventually, I would purchase a ticket instantly
Low cost, TATL to anywhere is likely to become another victim of the pandemic. The future of leisure travel (international) will be a lot more complicated, regimented, and perhaps a lot less accessible than it was until 2019. Pre-COVID, if fares to Europe were cheaper out of EWR than PHL that is simply a function of competition and scale. EWR was, and is still, dominated by UA and Star Alliance partners to Europe, but EWR's catchment does include the traffic that goes out of JFK as well, from a regional perspective, and it is by definition so much bigger. PHL has limited competition with AA essentially the sole carrier to most markets in Europe it serves, augmented by BA, with LH being the only other game in town since AF/DL pulled out.
I don't see EA becoming a major factor at PHL or a major player anywhere for that matter. The business model it follows is decidedly dated and not for the times we are now living in. EA will succeed at surviving the immediate through the transport of cargo to the regions it flies to, and perhaps even be a relevant force in 1 or 2 Latin America markets on the VFR front, but it won't be servicing business travel demand, whatever it may be now or in the future. EA's planes are too large to make money carrying passengers and its reliability is also questionable. It can succeed as a niche player, or it will simply fold but I don't see it as a major threat to any major carrier. Many of the routes it is launching didn't work for the majors who used smaller jets and had at their disposal, big hubs to feed traffic onto those flights.
Bigant0408 wrote:MEX is not even available yet to buy tickets.
Ishrion wrote:Bigant0408 wrote:MEX is not even available yet to buy tickets.
That's interesting and somewhat concerning. PHL-MEX was available for sale last week. Looks like Eastern zeroed out reservations but the schedule is still being displayed on Google Flights.
Bigant0408 wrote:Ishrion wrote:Bigant0408 wrote:MEX is not even available yet to buy tickets.
That's interesting and somewhat concerning. PHL-MEX was available for sale last week. Looks like Eastern zeroed out reservations but the schedule is still being displayed on Google Flights.
Yea that's what bothers me with them with their website. They even have Toronto to MIA and GEO as selections yet no announcement about these flights nor are they available to be booked. So who knows what's going on behind the scenes at EA. Guess we'll see what happens. SDQ right now is the only "guaranteed" route for Philly
aerace wrote:Bigant0408 wrote:Ishrion wrote:
That's interesting and somewhat concerning. PHL-MEX was available for sale last week. Looks like Eastern zeroed out reservations but the schedule is still being displayed on Google Flights.
Yea that's what bothers me with them with their website. They even have Toronto to MIA and GEO as selections yet no announcement about these flights nor are they available to be booked. So who knows what's going on behind the scenes at EA. Guess we'll see what happens. SDQ right now is the only "guaranteed" route for Philly
I've been checking pretty often from the jump and I hadn't seen any pricing at all since loading PHL-MEX. Maybe they are still awaiting government approval before officially putting up for sale?
TheFlyGuy wrote:AA brought back the IPT (Williamsport) route to PHL. Interesting since it was just moved to CLT over the summer and then that route was terminated as a result of COVID.
https://www.sungazette.com/uncategorize ... n-january/
aerace wrote:As Ishrion reported on the AA thread, PHL gaining ECP and VPS seasonal Saturday service starting May 8th. AA continues to fill the Florida holes from PHL. I think all that's left would be Gainesville and Tallahassee where AA already serves from the other hubs?
Also looks like AS is back on PHL-SFO daily from March 17th.
usairways85 wrote:It would be nice if they had the larger aircraft to fly some of the busier Florida routes. My PHL-PBI-PHL flights on E175s the past few weeks were both 95% full and offering $400 / $100 vouchers respectively.
aerace wrote:As Ishrion reported on the AA thread, PHL gaining ECP and VPS seasonal Saturday service starting May 8th. AA continues to fill the Florida holes from PHL. I think all that's left would be Gainesville and Tallahassee where AA already serves from the other hubs?
Also looks like AS is back on PHL-SFO daily from March 17th.
PHLspecial wrote:What are some state of PHL capital projects at?
AA projects
$ 900M Terminal B & C improvements, had we heard about anything about this project?
The Flagship Lounge, was that ever completed?
Septa/Amtrak projects
Upgrade the platforms, grant was approved last year, so we shall see all the upgrades if they are coming or not.
Connection to the Northeast Corridor. This is very unlikely to happen though I would argue would be a major upgrade for Philadelphia.
Cargo City
In 2017 PHL brought the Henderson land for future growth in cargo. PHL has talked about being more competitive in the cargo market, so it remains to be seen what PHL is going to do with that land.
Random notes:
I looked at some of the International Passenger numbers over the last ten years.
Year | Passengers (Million) Enplanements
2010 | 1.86
2011 | 1.98
2012 | 1.98
2013 | 1.97
2014 | 2.04
2015 | 2.04
2016 | 1.99
2017 | 1.84
2018 | 1.87
2019 | 2.04
I'm not sure if I'm making the wrong insight here, after the merger between US and AA the international numbers was stagnate even after AA making PHL TATL hub in 2017? FI and EL seemed to help with the international numbers but that is small compared to AA. So I guess a lot of the passengers that fly internationally through PHL is awarded travelers?
My whole point about this post I'm worried about AA and PHL TATL future. I would guess they have a grand plan for 2022 or 2023 TATL, hopefully PHL will still be part of that picture.
Right now PHL is a base for 787-8 and probably for the foreseeable future Would PHL have a base for the B777-200ER or would it be flown in from DFW and ORD.
My hopes are high for PHL to make a recovery late 2021 and 2022!
flyboy7974 wrote:Seems like Eastern has suspended PHL ops, website was showing flights in February but today at airport was told March 28.
PHLspecial wrote:If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321
BA
LHR 1.4x 350
LH
FRA 1x 333
EI
DUB 1x 321
QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W
PHLspecial wrote:If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321
BA
LHR 1.4x 350
LH
FRA 1x 333
EI
DUB 1x 321
QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W
Nicknuzzii wrote:PHLspecial wrote:If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321
BA
LHR 1.4x 350
LH
FRA 1x 333
EI
DUB 1x 321
QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W
For 2024? I think this schedule is way to conservative. Not only is it a lot of down gauging there’s a lot less frequencies too.
aerace wrote:PHLspecial wrote:If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321
BA
LHR 1.4x 350
LH
FRA 1x 333
EI
DUB 1x 321
QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W
I wouldn't be surprised to see MAN through EI if that winds up working for them.
PHLspecial wrote:Nicknuzzii wrote:PHLspecial wrote:If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321
BA
LHR 1.4x 350
LH
FRA 1x 333
EI
DUB 1x 321
QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W
For 2024? I think this schedule is way to conservative. Not only is it a lot of down gauging there’s a lot less frequencies too.
You are probably right it's very conservative. I would think think PHL would have 10 788 based here and 2-4 772 in the future. Since in the past PHL had 12-14 a330 and 5-6 763. So yeah probably can do higher on their yearly routes. I just don't know if they will see more 772 or 789 for commonality.
PHLspecial wrote:If AA is getting 15+ the A321XLRs for 2024 TATL. The summer routes could be:
LHR 2X 772
DUB 1x 788
CDG 1x 788/321?
ATH 1x 788
FCO 1x 788
AMS 0.6x 788/321?
ZRH 0.6x 788/321?
MAD 1x 321
LIS 1x 321
BCN 1x 321
SNN 1x 321
EDI 1x 321
FRA 1x 321
VCE 0.4x 788
KEF 0.6x 321
CMN 0.4x 321
Maybe the 772 gets swapped out for the 789.
Any other TATL from 2019 would go to the 321
BA
LHR 1.4x 350
LH
FRA 1x 333
EI
DUB 1x 321
QR
DOH 1x 35K/77W
Bigant0408 wrote:According to Crankyflier LH has cut back PHL scheduling amount a few other cities
"Lufthansa cut back March schedules with cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, and Philadelphia seeing only weekly flights."
IMO seeing LH coming back at all is good enough for me.