usairways85 wrote:ContinentalEWR wrote:BENFRANKLIN wrote:My question is who wants to be a Flight across the pond for 6+ hours on a A321XLR?
The bigger question is whether the future viability of PHL as a major TATL gateway rests on a the wings of a narrow body, even a more capable one, reveals a lot about whether PHL's future as a big gateway to Europe is as secure as some think it is here. As to narrow body vs. wide body across the Atlantic, that argument is so tired and fade-worthy here, it's not even relevant any more. Are people still crying in their Stroopwafels because DC10s and 767s aren't the standard on transcons any longer in favor of single aisled planes, with a few exceptions here and there? C'mon.
In the few years before Covid there was more of a transition away from 752 TA flights. UA upgauged a number of 752 flights from EWR, AA planned to upgrade LIS from PHL, I think DL only had a few. AA was banking on the 321 opening up more 3rd tier type markets. Everything has shifted and frankly no one knows what the future of TA travel will hold in the next 5 years.
At the same time I don't think that B6 is going to be some magical saving grace for AA at JFK. UA and DL are going to fight for the NYC market. I imagine there will be some capacity dumping to jockey for market share.
Flights on single aisle aircraft across the Atlantic to secondary and tertiary destinations made it possible for these city pairs to be served seasonally or year round where otherwise a wide body would simply be uneconomical. The first generation of narrow body twin jets to be deployed on these routes were not really designed for these types of missions and had some limitations. For instance, the 757 was over-used on routes pushing the range to the limits, causing diversions frequently on west bound flights, notably in winter, in markets like TXL-EWR to name a few. The A321LR/XLR are designed to achieve greater range and efficiency and continue the trend of narrow body jets on some routes.
UA and DL will indeed fight for their turf, but they are facing increasing competition all around. B6 is not going to relent on its EWR expansion, which has shown some promise even amid headwinds driven by the pandemic's lasting impact on demand. The AA/B6 partnership at JFK (and LGA) is going to take a long time to mature, as traffic levels are falling again as demand wanes in the face of the Delta variant and very low levels of corporate travel demand. DL and UA aren't immune to the same obstacles. UA is finding its much ballyhooed JFK re-entry extremely challenging, DL is making deep cuts to many bread and butter routes to Europe from JFK for the Winter, anticipating very weak demand. AA is slashing frequencies as well.
A protracted downturn for the industry, which for now, hasn't recovered at all, regardless of what the real CEO's (and the arm chair ones on this forum believe) say. The industry saw an uptick since Memorial Day from very low levels due to pent up demand for LEISURE travel, which cyclically ends in the US this weekend. Corporate demand is what sustains flying in the Fall and Winter and that's not in the cards right now. That protracted downturn can and probably will spark further consolidation in the industry and that consolidation will likely involve each of the US3 and one of the other big US carriers.