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Happy New Year!!

Looking forward to a better 2021. New planes, new routes and continued excellent performance.

Hopefully, 2021 brings profitability back!

ATSS wrote:

Looking forward to a better 2021. New planes, new routes and continued excellent performance.

I have previously mentioned AS possibly adding SEA-CLE/BDL/JAX/ORF nonstop service with CLE, BDL, JAX, ORF being 4 of the top domestic destinations traveled to SEA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that aren't currently served by AS. I had also previously mentioned that the lack of SEA-CLE nonstop service on a non-ULCC was a huge hole prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, even with F9 having summer seasonal less-than-daily SEA-CLE nonstop service prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While not as big of an hole, AS adding SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL nonstop service using E-175 regional jets is a possibility with (a) SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL being within the range of E-175 regional jets and (b) AS probably able to easily fill an E-175 regional jet on SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL if demand were at normal levels with the amount of passengers per day that were traveling to SEA from DSM, MSN, and TUL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are also other factors apart from O&D to support AS service to new destinations such as CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL such as
(a) the connections that AS would be able to offer to Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii through its SEA hub,
(b) possible connecting opportunities onto JL's SEA-NRT and AA's SEA-BLR/PVG flights, and
(c) AS being able to tap into the FF base that AA already has in the CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL markets.

jplatts wrote:

(c) AS being able to tap into the FF base that AA already has in the CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL markets.

AA isn't the #1 operating carrier in any of those markets. In CLE and MSN it isn't even among the top 5. Small fractions of midsize markets - blah.

jplatts wrote:

I have previously mentioned AS possibly adding SEA-CLE/BDL/JAX/ORF nonstop service with CLE, BDL, JAX, ORF being 4 of the top domestic destinations traveled to SEA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that aren't currently served by AS. I had also previously mentioned that the lack of SEA-CLE nonstop service on a non-ULCC was a huge hole prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, even with F9 having summer seasonal less-than-daily SEA-CLE nonstop service prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While not as big of an hole, AS adding SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL nonstop service using E-175 regional jets is a possibility with (a) SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL being within the range of E-175 regional jets and (b) AS probably able to easily fill an E-175 regional jet on SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL if demand were at normal levels with the amount of passengers per day that were traveling to SEA from DSM, MSN, and TUL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are also other factors apart from O&D to support AS service to new destinations such as CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL such as
(a) the connections that AS would be able to offer to Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii through its SEA hub,
(b) possible connecting opportunities onto JL's SEA-NRT and AA's SEA-BLR/PVG flights, and
(c) AS being able to tap into the FF base that AA already has in the CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL markets.

Well thought out! I think you could see some of this in 2022. I fear that 2021 is already going to barely see things moving again. We have travel plans for May and I'm starting to question if they'll happen due to the slow roll-out of the vaccine.

jplatts wrote:

I have previously mentioned AS possibly adding SEA-CLE/BDL/JAX/ORF nonstop service with CLE, BDL, JAX, ORF being 4 of the top domestic destinations traveled to SEA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that aren't currently served by AS. I had also previously mentioned that the lack of SEA-CLE nonstop service on a non-ULCC was a huge hole prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, even with F9 having summer seasonal less-than-daily SEA-CLE nonstop service prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While not as big of an hole, AS adding SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL nonstop service using E-175 regional jets is a possibility with (a) SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL being within the range of E-175 regional jets and (b) AS probably able to easily fill an E-175 regional jet on SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL if demand were at normal levels with the amount of passengers per day that were traveling to SEA from DSM, MSN, and TUL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are also other factors apart from O&D to support AS service to new destinations such as CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL such as
(a) the connections that AS would be able to offer to Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii through its SEA hub,
(b) possible connecting opportunities onto JL's SEA-NRT and AA's SEA-BLR/PVG flights, and
(c) AS being able to tap into the FF base that AA already has in the CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL markets.

So according to you, it appears that Seattle is the only city that AS will add destinations from. I could have sworn there were other cities -- hubs and focus cities in fact -- that AS has been growing recently, cities in Oregon and what's that other state to the south, oh yeah, Cali-something.

But I guess according to you, all those new planes and routes will be based in SEA. IMO, the low hanging fruit from SEA has already been very well picked over by AS; you're getting into routes with PDEWs in the 80s and 90s even though they may be the largest un-served routes (pax-wise.) And despite the added pax gained thru non-O&D means you listed above. Just because a market is amongst the largest un-served routes from SEA doesn't mean it has to or will be served... There's also a matter of limited gate/terminal space and growing congestion at AS's largest hub.

There must be a limit at which AS will send their new a/c on missions from other hubs and large stations rather than trying to fly nonstop from SEA to every city with at least 15 pax per day! And I think we're seeing that AS is currently circling that limit; IMO, we are seeing AS network planners thinking more and more outside the SEA-box.

bb

SANFan wrote:

jplatts wrote:

I have previously mentioned AS possibly adding SEA-CLE/BDL/JAX/ORF nonstop service with CLE, BDL, JAX, ORF being 4 of the top domestic destinations traveled to SEA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that aren't currently served by AS. I had also previously mentioned that the lack of SEA-CLE nonstop service on a non-ULCC was a huge hole prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, even with F9 having summer seasonal less-than-daily SEA-CLE nonstop service prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While not as big of an hole, AS adding SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL nonstop service using E-175 regional jets is a possibility with (a) SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL being within the range of E-175 regional jets and (b) AS probably able to easily fill an E-175 regional jet on SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL if demand were at normal levels with the amount of passengers per day that were traveling to SEA from DSM, MSN, and TUL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are also other factors apart from O&D to support AS service to new destinations such as CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL such as
(a) the connections that AS would be able to offer to Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii through its SEA hub,
(b) possible connecting opportunities onto JL's SEA-NRT and AA's SEA-BLR/PVG flights, and
(c) AS being able to tap into the FF base that AA already has in the CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL markets.

So according to you, it appears that Seattle is the only city that AS will add destinations from. I could have sworn there were other cities -- hubs and focus cities in fact -- that AS has been growing recently, cities in Oregon and what's that other state to the south, oh yeah, Cali-something.

But I guess according to you, all those new planes and routes will be based in SEA. IMO, the low hanging fruit from SEA has already been very well picked over by AS; you're getting into routes with PDEWs in the 80s and 90s even though they may be the largest un-served routes (pax-wise.) And despite the added pax gained thru non-O&D means you listed above. Just because a market is amongst the largest un-served routes from SEA doesn't mean it has to or will be served... There's also a matter of limited gate/terminal space and growing congestion at AS's largest hub.

There must be a limit at which AS will send their new a/c on missions from other hubs and large stations rather than trying to fly nonstop from SEA to every city with at least 15 pax per day! And I think we're seeing that AS is currently circling that limit; IMO, we are seeing AS network planners thinking more and more outside the SEA-box.

bb

Exactly. There isn't really a whole lot AS can add in Seattle that makes sense. CLE seems like the only that the OP listed that could work IMO. Not to mention, that gate space in Seattle is at it's limit, and they're going to want to resume their pre-COVID flights before adding any new destinations.

As far as new routes go, there obviously won't be a whole lot in 2021, but I wouldn't go as far as to say that there won't be any growth at all. I see the east coast focus continuing to be Florida and the southeast, even throughout the summer months, as larger metropolitan areas further north may take longer for their local economies to open back up. As far as new routes go, I could see a "split" operation between RDU and TPA, similar to how AS is operating their FLL and CUN flights from PDX and SAN.

SAN-RDU: 4x weekly
PDX-RDU: 3x weekly

PDX-TPA: 4x weekly
SAN-TPA: 3x weekly

I could also see a similar operation playing out in resuming Portland's previous summer seasonal routes, such as BWI and PHL:
PDX-BWI: 4x weekly
PDX-PHL: 3x weekly

As far as SAN goes, I think there is a lot of potential "regional" and intra-California growth that can be endeavored. If AS is able to successfully get SAN-SBA/SBP off the ground, I think that could lead the way to SAN-BFL and SAN-SCK. Those two examples may seem a bit farfetched, but I honestly think that AS should be using SAN as a connecting point for smaller communities in California. I know AS has been pretty weary of competition from WN, but since they recently opened back up SAN-SMF, maybe we'll even see routes such as SAN-ABQ/RNO/TUS come online in the future.

I think the renovated east side of the N-concourse will be opened fairly soon (around summertime?). It will open some new gates. But it could also allow AS to release S, A and B gates they have been using. Also, maybe not so many remote stand flights.

wedgetail737 wrote:

I think the renovated east side of the N-concourse will be opened fairly soon (around summertime?). It will open some new gates. But it could also allow AS to release S, A and B gates they have been using. Also, maybe not so many remote stand flights.

AS has zero interest in freeing up gates at SEA.

EA CO AS wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

I think the renovated east side of the N-concourse will be opened fairly soon (around summertime?). It will open some new gates. But it could also allow AS to release S, A and B gates they have been using. Also, maybe not so many remote stand flights.

AS has zero interest in freeing up gates at SEA.

I totally understand...and why would they. That would just free up space for competition.

AC4500 wrote:

SANFan wrote:

But I guess according to you, all those new planes and routes will be based in SEA. IMO, the low hanging fruit from SEA has already been very well picked over by AS; you're getting into routes with PDEWs in the 80s and 90s even though they may be the largest un-served routes (pax-wise.) And despite the added pax gained thru non-O&D means you listed above. Just because a market is amongst the largest un-served routes from SEA doesn't mean it has to or will be served... There's also a matter of limited gate/terminal space and growing congestion at AS's largest hub.

There must be a limit at which AS will send their new a/c on missions from other hubs and large stations rather than trying to fly nonstop from SEA to every city with at least 15 pax per day! And I think we're seeing that AS is currently circling that limit; IMO, we are seeing AS network planners thinking more and more outside the SEA-box.

Exactly. There isn't really a whole lot AS can add in Seattle that makes sense. CLE seems like the only that the OP listed that could work IMO. Not to mention, that gate space in Seattle is at it's limit, and they're going to want to resume their pre-COVID flights before adding any new destinations.

Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of SEA-CLE/DSM/BDL/JAX/MSN/ORF/PHF/TUL:
SEA-CLE - 218
SEA-ORF/PHF - 130
SEA-JAX - 112
SEA-BDL - 108
SEA-MSN - 74 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)
SEA-TUL - 71 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)
SEA-DSM - 68 (within the range of E-175 regional jets)

In addition to SEA-CLE, AS can probably fill 737-800 planes on SEA-ORF if demand for air travel were at normal levels with the amount of demand that was there to SEA from the ORF/PHF market prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and with the additional demand that would likely be stimulated through an SEA-ORF add by AS.

AS would probably be able to easily fill 76-seat E-175 regional jets on SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL if demand were at normal levels with the amount of demand that was there to SEA from DSM, MSN, and TUL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. AS also already operates E-175 regional jets on SEA-DAL, which is longer than SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL.

I agree that AS adding additional nonstop routes out of LAX, PDX, SAN, and SFO are possibilities, but most of the additional nonstop routes added by AS out of LAX, PDX, SAN, and SFO would probably be to destinations already served by AS.

It's the airline industry. Stranger things and off-the-wall routes have happened. Just imagine SEA-Williston, ND...LOL! We might see some additional routes announced in 2021...there are already some starting in 2021 that were announced earlier like MRY-SEA. My guess is that we'll see new route amongst existing destinations and increased frequency.

wedgetail737 wrote:

Just imagine SEA-Williston, ND...LOL!

While there are some destinations served by AS in Alaska and Washington State that carried fewer passengers than ISN/XWA did in 2019, I probably do not expect AS to ever add SEA-XWA nonstop service.

jplatts wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

Just imagine SEA-Williston, ND...LOL!

While there are some destinations served by AS in Alaska and Washington State that carried fewer passengers than ISN/XWA did in 2019, I probably do not expect AS to ever add SEA-XWA nonstop service.

I'm more interested to see what AS does with their 737 MAX-9's as they come on board. I know the original route for the MAX-9's were LAX-SEA. But maybe they will be added to the longer-haul routes like SEA-HI or LAX-Costa Rica. Maybe they'll start JFK-ANC (like Eastern).

Hoping for JAX and ORF.

MIflyer12 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

(c) AS being able to tap into the FF base that AA already has in the CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL markets.

AA isn't the #1 operating carrier in any of those markets. In CLE and MSN it isn't even among the top 5. Small fractions of midsize markets - blah.

MSN has five airlines.

wedgetail737 wrote:

EA CO AS wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

I think the renovated east side of the N-concourse will be opened fairly soon (around summertime?). It will open some new gates. But it could also allow AS to release S, A and B gates they have been using. Also, maybe not so many remote stand flights.

AS has zero interest in freeing up gates at SEA.

I totally understand...and why would they. That would just free up space for competition.

With the exception of B11/15, the other S and A gates are common use and requested from the port of seattle when needed. S1a is another exception as QX is the only airline that ever uses it

452QX wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

EA CO AS wrote:

AS has zero interest in freeing up gates at SEA.

I totally understand...and why would they. That would just free up space for competition.

With the exception of B11/15, the other S and A gates are common use and requested from the port of seattle when needed. S1a is another exception as QX is the only airline that ever uses it

Good to know.

SANFan wrote:

jplatts wrote:

I have previously mentioned AS possibly adding SEA-CLE/BDL/JAX/ORF nonstop service with CLE, BDL, JAX, ORF being 4 of the top domestic destinations traveled to SEA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that aren't currently served by AS. I had also previously mentioned that the lack of SEA-CLE nonstop service on a non-ULCC was a huge hole prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, even with F9 having summer seasonal less-than-daily SEA-CLE nonstop service prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While not as big of an hole, AS adding SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL nonstop service using E-175 regional jets is a possibility with (a) SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL being within the range of E-175 regional jets and (b) AS probably able to easily fill an E-175 regional jet on SEA-DSM/MSN/TUL if demand were at normal levels with the amount of passengers per day that were traveling to SEA from DSM, MSN, and TUL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are also other factors apart from O&D to support AS service to new destinations such as CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL such as
(a) the connections that AS would be able to offer to Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii through its SEA hub,
(b) possible connecting opportunities onto JL's SEA-NRT and AA's SEA-BLR/PVG flights, and
(c) AS being able to tap into the FF base that AA already has in the CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL markets.

So according to you, it appears that Seattle is the only city that AS will add destinations from. I could have sworn there were other cities -- hubs and focus cities in fact -- that AS has been growing recently, cities in Oregon and what's that other state to the south, oh yeah, Cali-something.

But I guess according to you, all those new planes and routes will be based in SEA. IMO, the low hanging fruit from SEA has already been very well picked over by AS; you're getting into routes with PDEWs in the 80s and 90s even though they may be the largest un-served routes (pax-wise.) And despite the added pax gained thru non-O&D means you listed above. Just because a market is amongst the largest un-served routes from SEA doesn't mean it has to or will be served... There's also a matter of limited gate/terminal space and growing congestion at AS's largest hub.

There must be a limit at which AS will send their new a/c on missions from other hubs and large stations rather than trying to fly nonstop from SEA to every city with at least 15 pax per day! And I think we're seeing that AS is currently circling that limit; IMO, we are seeing AS network planners thinking more and more outside the SEA-box.

bb

Does AS still have available gate space at SAN these days?

2019 Q3 numbers are UNREALISTIC to use for another 2 years or so! Business traffic especially will be off for quite some time!

I see that AS has tentatively scheduled MAX flights between SEA-LAX, PDX-LAX and SEA-SAN starting 3/1/21.

wedgetail737 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

Just imagine SEA-Williston, ND...LOL!

While there are some destinations served by AS in Alaska and Washington State that carried fewer passengers than ISN/XWA did in 2019, I probably do not expect AS to ever add SEA-XWA nonstop service.

I'm more interested to see what AS does with their 737 MAX-9's as they come on board. I know the original route for the MAX-9's were LAX-SEA. But maybe they will be added to the longer-haul routes like SEA-HI or LAX-Costa Rica. Maybe they'll start JFK-ANC (like Eastern).

The 737 MAX-9s will begin its service on a few West Coast cities while the airline gets experience with, and crews trained on, the new aircraft. Further down the line they will do transcons and ETOPS.

RWRCAS wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

While there are some destinations served by AS in Alaska and Washington State that carried fewer passengers than ISN/XWA did in 2019, I probably do not expect AS to ever add SEA-XWA nonstop service.

I'm more interested to see what AS does with their 737 MAX-9's as they come on board. I know the original route for the MAX-9's were LAX-SEA. But maybe they will be added to the longer-haul routes like SEA-HI or LAX-Costa Rica. Maybe they'll start JFK-ANC (like Eastern).

The 737 MAX-9s will begin its service on a few West Coast cities while the airline gets experience with, and crews trained on, the new aircraft. Further down the line they will do transcons and ETOPS.

I'm looking forward to seeing them in the air.

wedgetail737 wrote:

Does AS still have available gate space at SAN these days?

Yes. To the best of my knowledge, AS currently has use of ~9 gates all located in Terminal T2E. In March 2020 (pre-COVID) AS scheduled ~53 daily departures from SAN; that's right up there among the highest flight counts for AS at our airport.That amounts to ~6 flts/gate/day.

I don't know what AS's average system-wide gate usage figure is but there should be plenty of space at SDIA for more flights. As I'm sure with most of AS's large west coast stations, there are peak times when almost every gate is needed -- like the early morning crush! -- and other times when 0 or 1 gate is occupied. It's all about trying to spread flights out during the day as much as possible and AS seems very good at that.

Coincidentally (?) the only other carrier that also uses gates in T2E is AA so I'm willing to bet that IF AS needed an extra gate here and there, and AA didn't need it, AS would be able to use it. Also, gates in T2E are located in a linear north-south concourse with AS on the east side and AA on the west side making it easy for gate sharing/connections if necessary.

wedgetail737 wrote:

I see that AS has tentatively scheduled MAX flights between SEA-LAX, PDX-LAX and SEA-SAN starting 3/1/21.

PDX-LAS is also in the mix for early MAX usage so 5 stations will be the first to train on the MAXs. Link: https://www.alaskaair.com/content/trave ... experience

bb

SANFan wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

Does AS still have available gate space at SAN these days?

Yes. To the best of my knowledge, AS currently has use of ~9 gates all located in Terminal T2E. In March 2020 (pre-COVID) AS scheduled ~53 daily departures from SAN; that's right up there among the highest flight counts for AS at our airport.That amounts to ~6 flts/gate/day.

I don't know what AS's average system-wide gate usage figure is but there should be plenty of space at SDIA for more flights. As I'm sure with most of AS's large west coast stations, there are peak times when almost every gate is needed -- like the early morning crush! -- and other times when 0 or 1 gate is occupied. It's all about trying to spread flights out during the day as much as possible and AS seems very good at that.

Coincidentally (?) the only other carrier that also uses gates in T2E is AA so I'm willing to bet that IF AS needed an extra gate here and there, and AA didn't need it, AS would be able to use it. Also, gates in T2E are located in a linear north-south concourse with AS on the east side and AA on the west side making it easy for gate sharing/connections if necessary.

wedgetail737 wrote:

I see that AS has tentatively scheduled MAX flights between SEA-LAX, PDX-LAX and SEA-SAN starting 3/1/21.

PDX-LAS is also in the mix for early MAX usage so 5 stations will be the first to train on the MAXs. Link: https://www.alaskaair.com/content/trave ... experience

bb

Maybe AS will change some of their MAX-9's with some MAX-10's.

how are the rsw flights doing?

I see that the Seattle - Milwaukee flight was downgauged to a Skywest E-175 starting today. Any idea how long that will last?

Brianpr3 wrote:

how are the rsw flights doing?

I'm wondering the same! I have been waiting YEARS for a nonstop LAX-RSW service, although I admit for my recent trip home for Christmas (please don't shame me - I honestly had no idea things were so bad here in L.A. until I returned home) I flew there on UA LAX-IAH-RSW and then back on AA RSW-DFW-BUR. Still, I hope to be able to support this wonderfully convenient nonstop service in the future

midexjet wrote:

I see that the Seattle - Milwaukee flight was downgauged to a Skywest E-175 starting today. Any idea how long that will last?

Per Google Flights, until March 16th (https://www.google.com/travel/flights/s ... BggDEAAYAA)

SEA-OMA is also on the E-175 until February 9th (https://www.google.com/travel/flights/s ... BggDEAAYAA)

MIflyer12 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

(c) AS being able to tap into the FF base that AA already has in the CLE, DSM, BDL, JAX, MSN, ORF, and TUL markets.

AA isn't the #1 operating carrier in any of those markets. In CLE and MSN it isn't even among the top 5. Small fractions of midsize markets - blah.

I don't know about the other markets, but AA definitely is the #1 operating carrier in DSM, and have been ever since the AA/US merger. They had 30% of the marketshare in DSM in Nov 2020, 7% above UA which is the #2 in DSM. I've always said a daily SEA-DSM flight on E175 would do well.

I'm sure this has been discussed at length before, but now that AS will be joining OneWorld, it seems prominent to bring this up again:

Will AS eventually add nonstop flights to Miami (MIA)?

I realize that FLL seems to be the current Miami-area airport that leisure passengers flock to, but it would certainly give Pacific North-westerners much easier access to the Caribbean and South America, although I suppose many of these connections can be achieved through DFW. That being said, it still seems natural for AS to supplement their own nonstop flight with AA's current SEA-MIA flight and maybe we could even finally see PDX-MIA happen as well.

I'm not suggesting that AS move their current FLL route network over to MIA; in fact, I think AS can easily coexist in both MIA and FLL at the same time.

It would also be interesting to see AS begin CLT nonstop flights as well...

AC4500 wrote:

I'm sure this has been discussed at length before, but now that AS will be joining OneWorld, it seems prominent to bring this up again:

Will AS eventually add nonstop flights to Miami (MIA)?

I realize that FLL seems to be the current Miami-area airport that leisure passengers flock to, but it would certainly give Pacific North-westerners much easier access to the Caribbean and South America, although I suppose many of these connections can be achieved through DFW. That being said, it still seems natural for AS to supplement their own nonstop flight with AA's current SEA-MIA flight and maybe we could even finally see PDX-MIA happen as well.

I'm not suggesting that AS move their current FLL route network over to MIA; in fact, I think AS can easily coexist in both MIA and FLL at the same time.

It would also be interesting to see AS begin CLT nonstop flights as well...

Been there done that. MIA has too high fees with too much competition. AS moved the operation from MIA to FLL a number of years ago.

On a separate note, how many pax/day does AS need to justify a mainline flight? How about an RJ flight?

How do you account for the market you can "create" by adding a route? For example SEA-PWM. I am guessing not many "official" pax right now. However, many PWM pax trying to get to SEA right now drive to BOS so my guess is that many people that live in Portland, Maine show up as BOS-SEA passengers. I am not in planning so just a naive question and wondering how they is taken to account.

Passedv1 wrote:

AC4500 wrote:

I'm sure this has been discussed at length before, but now that AS will be joining OneWorld, it seems prominent to bring this up again:

Will AS eventually add nonstop flights to Miami (MIA)?

I realize that FLL seems to be the current Miami-area airport that leisure passengers flock to, but it would certainly give Pacific North-westerners much easier access to the Caribbean and South America, although I suppose many of these connections can be achieved through DFW. That being said, it still seems natural for AS to supplement their own nonstop flight with AA's current SEA-MIA flight and maybe we could even finally see PDX-MIA happen as well.

I'm not suggesting that AS move their current FLL route network over to MIA; in fact, I think AS can easily coexist in both MIA and FLL at the same time.

It would also be interesting to see AS begin CLT nonstop flights as well...

Been there done that. MIA has too high fees with too much competition. AS moved the operation from MIA to FLL a number of years ago.

MIA's fees are relatively not high anymore. They have stayed relatively flat while other airports, including FLL, have seen costs sky rocket due to capital improvement project costs. It's 2020, not 2005. Southwest, JetBlue, Frontier...everybody flies to MIA except Alaska and Spirit, and it's an absolutely logical add. I don't even think it's a question of if, but rather when Alaska will resume Miami. And as summer 2021 looks to be shot again for international travel and domestic business travel, airlines will continue to put their planes where they can fill them, which is places like Miami.

wedgetail737 wrote:

SANFan wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

Does AS still have available gate space at SAN these days?

Yes. To the best of my knowledge, AS currently has use of ~9 gates all located in Terminal T2E. In March 2020 (pre-COVID) AS scheduled ~53 daily departures from SAN; that's right up there among the highest flight counts for AS at our airport.That amounts to ~6 flts/gate/day.

I don't know what AS's average system-wide gate usage figure is but there should be plenty of space at SDIA for more flights. As I'm sure with most of AS's large west coast stations, there are peak times when almost every gate is needed -- like the early morning crush! -- and other times when 0 or 1 gate is occupied. It's all about trying to spread flights out during the day as much as possible and AS seems very good at that.

Coincidentally (?) the only other carrier that also uses gates in T2E is AA so I'm willing to bet that IF AS needed an extra gate here and there, and AA didn't need it, AS would be able to use it. Also, gates in T2E are located in a linear north-south concourse with AS on the east side and AA on the west side making it easy for gate sharing/connections if necessary.

wedgetail737 wrote:

I see that AS has tentatively scheduled MAX flights between SEA-LAX, PDX-LAX and SEA-SAN starting 3/1/21.

PDX-LAS is also in the mix for early MAX usage so 5 stations will be the first to train on the MAXs. Link: https://www.alaskaair.com/content/trave ... experience

bb

Maybe AS will change some of their MAX-9's with some MAX-10's.

Not likely. I believe Ben M has said before that while the MAX10 would be useful on busier routes like SEA-ANC/LAX, there aren't many other places where we would need the added capacity enough.


As an update on the MAX though, I talked to one of the pilots that does flight checks on new deliveries and planes coming out of maintenance, and supposedly the acceptance flight for the first MAX will be on the 18th, with delivery a few days after that.

Alaska Airlines has announced two new routes from SoCal:

- Daily Los Angeles to Austin on the E-175 starting March 18. This route increases to 3x daily from May 20. LAX-AUS will now have seven carriers on the route.

- Daily San Diego to New York JFK on the 737-900 starting April 4.

https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2021-01- ... California

Is JFK-SAN in addition to EWR-SAN?

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Is JFK-SAN in addition to EWR-SAN?

It is

”The new nonstop service between San Diego and New York JFK is part of Alaska's growth to the Northeast from its West Coast hubs. This spring, the airline will also have nonstop service between San Diego and both Newark and Boston.”

Why does the world need seven airlines flying between LAX and Austin? Alaska now joins United, Delta, American, JetBlue, Southwest and Spirit on the route. I’m struggling to find any other route in the country that has seven airlines competing.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

Why does the world need seven airlines flying between LAX and Austin? Alaska now joins United, Delta, American, JetBlue, Southwest and Spirit on the route. I’m struggling to find any other route in the country that has seven airlines competing.

I saw the OP's remark on seven and first thought of DEN-LAX, but a check shows only six, at least on a few days in August. AUS-LAX may see some decent traffic volumes (and is short enough that E75/CR9s have range) but IMHO somebody is going to blink and exit that market.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

I’m struggling to find any other route in the country that has seven airlines competing.

LAX-LAS has about 9-10 carriers.

I believe LGA-MCO may have seven airlines?

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

Why does the world need seven airlines flying between LAX and Austin? Alaska now joins United, Delta, American, JetBlue, Southwest and Spirit on the route. I’m struggling to find any other route in the country that has seven airlines competing.

With you on that. Seems oversaturated. Jockeying for market position? In any case I'm willing to bet that post-COVID we'll see that number drop to 5 or so.

Ishrion wrote:

Alaska Airlines has announced two new routes from SoCal:

- Daily Los Angeles to Austin on the E-175 starting March 18. This route increases to 3x daily from May 20. LAX-AUS will now have seven carriers on the route.

- Daily San Diego to New York JFK on the 737-900 starting April 4.

https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2021-01- ... California

It seemed like AS was backing out of JFK. Odd.

Ishrion wrote:

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

I’m struggling to find any other route in the country that has seven airlines competing.

LAX-LAS has about 9-10 carriers.

I believe LGA-MCO may have seven airlines?

Across the same five dates in August as above, LGA-MCO shows five carriers. LAX-LAS has seven (per ITA Matrix and southwest.com). If anybody has the O&D data it would be interesting to see how AUS-LAX compares. I don't think it's in the league of LAS-LAX or LGA-MCO.

enilria wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

Alaska Airlines has announced two new routes from SoCal:

- Daily Los Angeles to Austin on the E-175 starting March 18. This route increases to 3x daily from May 20. LAX-AUS will now have seven carriers on the route.

- Daily San Diego to New York JFK on the 737-900 starting April 4.

https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2021-01- ... California

It seemed like AS was backing out of JFK. Odd.

well, they also don't want to lose their JFK slots.

enilria wrote:

It seemed like AS was backing out of JFK. Odd.

I interpret this as trying to show some mojo out of focus-city SAN rather than a push at JFK specifically. Maybe they see this as (their) alternative to LAX-JFK where AS frequencies have been cut so much they start to lose relevance.

At what point does AS grow too big for AA’s comfort at LAX? Aren’t they supposed to be partners? AA was one of the first carriers on this route, and while I’m sure AA isn’t losing sleep over the AS additions between LAX and secondary Oregon, Austin is in American’s back yard.

MLIAA wrote:

At what point does AS grow too big for AA’s comfort at LAX? Aren’t they supposed to be partners? AA was one of the first carriers on this route, and while I’m sure AA isn’t losing sleep over the AS additions between LAX and secondary Oregon, Austin is in American’s back yard.

AS is free to grow or adjust its network at-will; AS and AA are forbidden from colluding on route decisions under US antitrust laws.

MIflyer12 wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

I’m struggling to find any other route in the country that has seven airlines competing.

LAX-LAS has about 9-10 carriers.

I believe LGA-MCO may have seven airlines?

Across the same five dates in August as above, LGA-MCO shows five carriers. LAX-LAS has seven (per ITA Matrix and southwest.com). If anybody has the O&D data it would be interesting to see how AUS-LAX compares. I don't think it's in the league of LAS-LAX or LGA-MCO.

LGA-MCO has five operating right now (United, Delta, Frontier, Spirit, JetBlue) with American and Southwest's LGA-MCO set to resume in March. However, I believe United's seasonal flight suspends in April.

LAX-LAS has seven operating right now (United, Alaska, Southwest, Frontier, American, Spirit, Delta) with JetBlue's flight resuming on March 28 and Allegiant's on June 2. Sun Country continues to display LAX-LAS on its route map but there aren't any reservations available.

However, like you said, the demand for AUS-LAX likely isn't comparable with LAX-LAS and LGA-MCO, but it would be great if we had the O&D numbers.