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FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:32 pm

Has anyone found anything about the supposed DL A319 someone posted about?
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 3:22 am

flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
Wneast wrote:
What other routes are underserved from FAT ?


After all of the pent up demand passes, and it will, ATL makes sense. While CLT could also help close the gap, I’d like to think in reverse mode, meaning, would DL’s SE strength offset the weaker DL FF base at FAT? Granted, DL has stepped it up at FAT, but LAX may only exist due to terminal construction at LAX. SLC remains a mix of 700’s and 175’s and traditionally doesn’t see a LF or yield anywhere near DEN. Unless they’d put a 220 on ATL, the next step up might be tough to fill and at a profit.


You make some great points here.

The comment about LAX is a good one, and it will be interesting to see whether it sticks around after T3 is done (which is nearly 2 years away, although some phases open earlier).

I can't help but look at LGB and see how it's been basically stuck with just SLC (although there was DL ER7 service to LAS for a bit). DL could follow that model too and upguage SLC before adding ATL/MSP. That would certainly fall in line with the rumor of September. LGB is obviously a different dynamic than FAT with slots, curfews, and a large DL hub a couple dozen miles up the 405. Also, OAK got and then lost ATL...not sure if/when that's coming back.

How are you estimating yields to SLC vs DEN? I can't help but notice how DL offers around 50 first class seats to SLC (not to mention all the economy plus), and UA has potentially never offered that many to DEN. Obviously the numbers are skewed right now with the pandemic taking a lot of business travel away, but going back to 2019, was UA/DEN beating DL/SLC for yield? That just seems strange considering DEN was mostly CR2s (with some mainline or E175s thrown in for parts of it) and DL was all premium cabin aircraft.

Based on your point about so much required lift to ATL and not many FFs, we might see daily SEA on an E175 first. It's a proven market unlike ATL (based on AS offering so many seats, not necessarily the once per week service DL is offering for the summer). That route would offer easier access to many PNW cities, Alaska, and Asia, and might help draw more FFs and develop the market enough that MSP/ATL would make sense.


The info on SLC yield was from a contact @ St George. I can only assume that most upfront on DL are upgrades. If we go back to 2019, SLC was an expensive hop. I’d assume that one must look behind SLC to understand yield. SLC loads have never matched DEN, but loads don’t mean much.

I do wonder what the bookings look like for September. That’s never a strong month at FAT. If the market beats the September lull, anything would appear to be possible.

There is likely a fit for DL to Seattle. AS is comfortable in one of the strongest markets we have. WN has a few $67 flights in the fall. It’s ripe for a good fight. I don’t expect WN to enter the market. What I’ve heard for WN is PHX is next if and when there’s a clear understanding as to whether the pent up demand holds. And, again, not trying to be negative here, but I don’t believe we can say that current demand is here to stay.

If DL does bring in the 319, I doubt much will change. Seems more of a competitor response to the others..

Of course, these are the days where anything can happen...
 
Wneast
Posts: 969
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:37 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 3:29 am

whatusaid wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:

After all of the pent up demand passes, and it will, ATL makes sense. While CLT could also help close the gap, I’d like to think in reverse mode, meaning, would DL’s SE strength offset the weaker DL FF base at FAT? Granted, DL has stepped it up at FAT, but LAX may only exist due to terminal construction at LAX. SLC remains a mix of 700’s and 175’s and traditionally doesn’t see a LF or yield anywhere near DEN. Unless they’d put a 220 on ATL, the next step up might be tough to fill and at a profit.


You make some great points here.

The comment about LAX is a good one, and it will be interesting to see whether it sticks around after T3 is done (which is nearly 2 years away, although some phases open earlier).

I can't help but look at LGB and see how it's been basically stuck with just SLC (although there was DL ER7 service to LAS for a bit). DL could follow that model too and upguage SLC before adding ATL/MSP. That would certainly fall in line with the rumor of September. LGB is obviously a different dynamic than FAT with slots, curfews, and a large DL hub a couple dozen miles up the 405. Also, OAK got and then lost ATL...not sure if/when that's coming back.

How are you estimating yields to SLC vs DEN? I can't help but notice how DL offers around 50 first class seats to SLC (not to mention all the economy plus), and UA has potentially never offered that many to DEN. Obviously the numbers are skewed right now with the pandemic taking a lot of business travel away, but going back to 2019, was UA/DEN beating DL/SLC for yield? That just seems strange considering DEN was mostly CR2s (with some mainline or E175s thrown in for parts of it) and DL was all premium cabin aircraft.

Based on your point about so much required lift to ATL and not many FFs, we might see daily SEA on an E175 first. It's a proven market unlike ATL (based on AS offering so many seats, not necessarily the once per week service DL is offering for the summer). That route would offer easier access to many PNW cities, Alaska, and Asia, and might help draw more FFs and develop the market enough that MSP/ATL would make sense.


The info on SLC yield was from a contact @ St George. I can only assume that most upfront on DL are upgrades. If we go back to 2019, SLC was an expensive hop. I’d assume that one must look behind SLC to understand yield. SLC loads have never matched DEN, but loads don’t mean much.

I do wonder what the bookings look like for September. That’s never a strong month at FAT. If the market beats the September lull, anything would appear to be possible.

There is likely a fit for DL to Seattle. AS is comfortable in one of the strongest markets we have. WN has a few $67 flights in the fall. It’s ripe for a good fight. I don’t expect WN to enter the market. What I’ve heard for WN is PHX is next if and when there’s a clear understanding as to whether the pent up demand holds. And, again, not trying to be negative here, but I don’t believe we can say that current demand is here to stay.

If DL does bring in the 319, I doubt much will change. Seems more of a competitor response to the others..

Of course, these are the days where anything can happen...

I hope WN adds PHX and maybe some others do you think it would be possible before end of the year
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:32 am

What’s with UA tonight? According to FlightAware, no ORD arrival and we’ve a 12:30a 175 from SFO that’s turning and going back at 1a. I’ve heard rumors of another fuel shortage as well.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:30 pm

whatusaid wrote:
What’s with UA tonight? According to FlightAware, no ORD arrival and we’ve a 12:30a 175 from SFO that’s turning and going back at 1a. I’ve heard rumors of another fuel shortage as well.


ORD diverted to SLC...seems like a mx issue but could have been to tanker gas (was on the ground in SLC for about an hour). Arrived about 11:45pm.

Based on the flight number, I'm guessing the SFO outbound was a mx ferry.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 3:05 pm

whatusaid wrote:
The info on SLC yield was from a contact @ St George. I can only assume that most upfront on DL are upgrades. If we go back to 2019, SLC was an expensive hop. I’d assume that one must look behind SLC to understand yield. SLC loads have never matched DEN, but loads don’t mean much.


Will be interesting to see how things have improved this summer. Looking at seating charts today, over 2/3 of the first seats are occupied to SLC, and over half are sold tomorrow. Some of those might by upgrades (can't see upgrade status without a ticket on DL like you can on UA), but that just means SMs with status are upgrading, which probably means higher yield anyway. UA is showing first being pretty well booked both days too, but that's just one flight's worth of first (interestingly, DL's E-175s have the same first capacity as UA's 319s).

DL appears to be sold out of economy seats again tomorrow to SEA, although the flight to FAT looks pretty open.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:24 pm

flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
The info on SLC yield was from a contact @ St George. I can only assume that most upfront on DL are upgrades. If we go back to 2019, SLC was an expensive hop. I’d assume that one must look behind SLC to understand yield. SLC loads have never matched DEN, but loads don’t mean much.


Will be interesting to see how things have improved this summer. Looking at seating charts today, over 2/3 of the first seats are occupied to SLC, and over half are sold tomorrow. Some of those might by upgrades (can't see upgrade status without a ticket on DL like you can on UA), but that just means SMs with status are upgrading, which probably means higher yield anyway. UA is showing first being pretty well booked both days too, but that's just one flight's worth of first (interestingly, DL's E-175s have the same first capacity as UA's 319s).

DL appears to be sold out of economy seats again tomorrow to SEA, although the flight to FAT looks pretty open.


The comeback FAT has made from the pandemic has been crazy. I was not expecting FAT to rebound the way it did honestly. I was expecting it to take longer like a lot of the other airports but hey, we got a ton of service the airport has been demanding for years (WN, ORD return, etc.), and there is more to come (AS 739)! Excited to see FAT’s growth this year and what new announcements we could see for next year!
 
FlyinRabbit88
Posts: 117
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 04, 2021 11:34 pm

Just noticed that Jetblue will be flying an A321 for the UCONN football team from BDL to FAT on 8/26 and then leaving 8/28.
UConn plays a Fresno state on 8/28

8/26 BDL-FAT flt 7001
1400 - 1700
8/28 FAT-BDL flt 7001
1900 - 0245
 
twosoun
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2021 1:45 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:09 am

FlyinRabbit88 wrote:
Just noticed that Jetblue will be flying an A321 for the UCONN football team from BDL to FAT on 8/26 and then leaving 8/28.
UConn plays a Fresno state on 8/28

8/26 BDL-FAT flt 7001
1400 - 1700
8/28 FAT-BDL flt 7001
1900 - 0245

As someone who lives in Fresno but goes to school in New Haven, this is so cool!
 
dalmit
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:25 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:25 pm

twosoun wrote:
As someone who lives in Fresno but goes to school in New Haven, this is so cool!


That has to be the longest skateboard commute ever.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 5273
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jul 05, 2021 6:16 pm

Supposedly more fueling problems yesterday. I have seen that both Signature and Ross have been trying to hire line techs for the last two weeks.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:44 pm

We’re getting an AA A321NEO today on the mainline PHX flight
 
Tan Flyr
Posts: 1749
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 11:07 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:36 am

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
We’re getting an AA A321NEO today on the mainline PHX flight


Was this due to just a tech issue/ equipment sub..or huge oversold either inbound or outbound?

( I remember the early days of AA @ FAT, and the AA manager Dave Callahan ( RIP), had to beg scheduling for a stretch 727 to handle a large oversold situation on a 727-023)

If this is oversolds, and the trend continues, we will see more AA 321 metal?? I guess time will tell.
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:57 pm

Tan Flyr wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
We’re getting an AA A321NEO today on the mainline PHX flight


Was this due to just a tech issue/ equipment sub..or huge oversold either inbound or outbound?

( I remember the early days of AA @ FAT, and the AA manager Dave Callahan ( RIP), had to beg scheduling for a stretch 727 to handle a large oversold situation on a 727-023)

If this is oversolds, and the trend continues, we will see more AA 321 metal?? I guess time will tell.


Dave was a great guy who made an experiment where Eagle handled mainline a success.

321’s have a place here, likely DFW. Not sufficient capacity come this fall when they cut daytime to two flights.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:25 pm

AA’s ORD service is currently scheduled to return next year on June 2nd, so this is most likely going to be a seasonal service. They could still extend it but I doubt it.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 10, 2021 3:44 pm

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
AA’s ORD service is currently scheduled to return next year on June 2nd, so this is most likely going to be a seasonal service. They could still extend it but I doubt it.


The DFW redeye started as seasonal and then became nearly year-round within 2 years. If FAT continues to grow, I wouldn't be surprised to see this flight eventually operate April-New Years. Question is, will UA respond by going back to mainline or starting their own Texas service...
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:25 am

flyfresno wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
AA’s ORD service is currently scheduled to return next year on June 2nd, so this is most likely going to be a seasonal service. They could still extend it but I doubt it.


The DFW redeye started as seasonal and then became nearly year-round within 2 years. If FAT continues to grow, I wouldn't be surprised to see this flight eventually operate April-New Years. Question is, will UA respond by going back to mainline or starting their own Texas service...


That’s how UA’s ORD flight was for us until the pandemic killed it for 14 months and downgraded the aircraft. I do believe that it could become a year-round service.

On another note, we got another AA A321 from PHX.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:14 am

DL’s schedule isn’t updated yet, but it has been brought to my attention that LAX service is ending September 12th.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:48 am

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
DL’s schedule isn’t updated yet, but it has been brought to my attention that LAX service is ending September 12th.


It's not showing up anymore after that, so it appears you are correct. Fresno back down to two airlines to LAX...just not a great O&D market.
 
Sevensixtyseven
Posts: 267
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 3:33 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 7:18 am

flyfresno wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
DL’s schedule isn’t updated yet, but it has been brought to my attention that LAX service is ending September 12th.


It's not showing up anymore after that, so it appears you are correct. Fresno back down to two airlines to LAX...just not a great O&D market.


I wonder if DL's absence will mean that AA will consider bringing back a CR7 turn or two. It would be a good way to bridge the OO operations from PHX to LAX, and I think that OO has a hangar where they can do their standard nightly deep cleaning like in PSP and TUS. Not to mention, sometimes LAX can be an easier or an extra connection point where PHX may not have the flights.

Also, FAT could use a later PHX departure than 2pm...it would be nice to have one to connect through to the redeyes or later mountain west departures. BFL has a 5pm one that wouldn't be difficult to mirror. How many FAT-PHX departures existed pre-pandemic?
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 7:42 am

Sevensixtyseven wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
DL’s schedule isn’t updated yet, but it has been brought to my attention that LAX service is ending September 12th.


It's not showing up anymore after that, so it appears you are correct. Fresno back down to two airlines to LAX...just not a great O&D market.


I wonder if DL's absence will mean that AA will consider bringing back a CR7 turn or two. It would be a good way to bridge the OO operations from PHX to LAX, and I think that OO has a hangar where they can do their standard nightly deep cleaning like in PSP and TUS. Not to mention, sometimes LAX can be an easier or an extra connection point where PHX may not have the flights.

Also, FAT could use a later PHX departure than 2pm...it would be nice to have one to connect through to the redeyes or later mountain west departures. BFL has a 5pm one that wouldn't be difficult to mirror. How many FAT-PHX departures existed pre-pandemic?


If you fast forward to the new AA placeholder for next summer, AA is running four to PHX, 2 319’s and 2 Mesa, with last fight just before 6p. (The entire schedule including ORD and DFW is pretty solid - seven mainline.). No more OO/AA.

LAX is just such a lousy O&D for biz travel. Fingers crossed that AS wakes up to SNA.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:50 pm

whatusaid wrote:
Sevensixtyseven wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

It's not showing up anymore after that, so it appears you are correct. Fresno back down to two airlines to LAX...just not a great O&D market.


I wonder if DL's absence will mean that AA will consider bringing back a CR7 turn or two. It would be a good way to bridge the OO operations from PHX to LAX, and I think that OO has a hangar where they can do their standard nightly deep cleaning like in PSP and TUS. Not to mention, sometimes LAX can be an easier or an extra connection point where PHX may not have the flights.

Also, FAT could use a later PHX departure than 2pm...it would be nice to have one to connect through to the redeyes or later mountain west departures. BFL has a 5pm one that wouldn't be difficult to mirror. How many FAT-PHX departures existed pre-pandemic?


If you fast forward to the new AA placeholder for next summer, AA is running four to PHX, 2 319’s and 2 Mesa, with last fight just before 6p. (The entire schedule including ORD and DFW is pretty solid - seven mainline.). No more OO/AA.

LAX is just such a lousy O&D for biz travel. Fingers crossed that AS wakes up to SNA.


Maybe out of this, we get a flight to SEA? I think it’s possible and DL is clearly interested. It would be a good connecting hub to give FAT access to.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:41 am

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
Sevensixtyseven wrote:

I wonder if DL's absence will mean that AA will consider bringing back a CR7 turn or two. It would be a good way to bridge the OO operations from PHX to LAX, and I think that OO has a hangar where they can do their standard nightly deep cleaning like in PSP and TUS. Not to mention, sometimes LAX can be an easier or an extra connection point where PHX may not have the flights.

Also, FAT could use a later PHX departure than 2pm...it would be nice to have one to connect through to the redeyes or later mountain west departures. BFL has a 5pm one that wouldn't be difficult to mirror. How many FAT-PHX departures existed pre-pandemic?


If you fast forward to the new AA placeholder for next summer, AA is running four to PHX, 2 319’s and 2 Mesa, with last fight just before 6p. (The entire schedule including ORD and DFW is pretty solid - seven mainline.). No more OO/AA.

LAX is just such a lousy O&D for biz travel. Fingers crossed that AS wakes up to SNA.


Maybe out of this, we get a flight to SEA? I think it’s possible and DL is clearly interested. It would be a good connecting hub to give FAT access to.


Certainly would make more sense than LAX. I personally would have put LAX just above DTW on my "how likely is DL to fly to each hub" bingo card before the route was announced, and way below MSP/SEA/ATL.

Still gotta wonder if/how gate space (or a lack thereof) at FAT plays into this.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:42 pm

May stats posted and there was an increase over 2019 both in domestic and international!

Domestic- May 2019: 75,455 enplaned, May 2021: 79,862 enplaned
Int'l- May 2019: 10,487 enplaned, May 2021: 11,340 enplaned

Also of note is a huge jump in cargo (thanks to UPS's A300s to SDF/ONT):
May 2019: 8,613,500lbs May 2021: 14,226,960lbs
 
twosoun
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2021 1:45 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 9:56 pm

This is awesome! I remember the days when flying out of FAT was always a couple hundred dollars more than driving to LAX/SFO, which deterred my family from using FAT. Nowadays, the domestic flight price differences between the major airports are not that much higher compared to FAT. So excited for the future of FAT!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 5273
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:37 pm

So total combined May 2021 enplanements of 91,202.

Rumor I am hearing is the June 2021 combined domestic and international enplanements was about 105,000 +/- a couple of thousand. That will compare to June 2019's 90,473. We will see the actual June number in a few weeks.
 
AirBrian
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:08 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:09 pm

Just got back from Ohio. Flew United through ORD both ways. United has to go back to mainline. E175 is a great regional plane but a 4 hour plus flight is pretty rough on that size plane
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:08 am

AirBrian wrote:
Just got back from Ohio. Flew United through ORD both ways. United has to go back to mainline. E175 is a great regional plane but a 4 hour plus flight is pretty rough on that size plane


From a customer standpoint, I agree with you. However, the loads haven’t been the best on these flights. How full were your flights to/from ORD?
 
BangersAndMash
Posts: 245
Joined: Sat Jul 10, 2021 5:21 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:57 am

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
AirBrian wrote:
Just got back from Ohio. Flew United through ORD both ways. United has to go back to mainline. E175 is a great regional plane but a 4 hour plus flight is pretty rough on that size plane


From a customer standpoint, I agree with you. However, the loads haven’t been the best on these flights. How full were your flights to/from ORD?


Isn't it a bit of a chicken and egg thing though?

With AA flying mainline, some people will avoid UA simply because of the RJ. UA upgauging could attract some of these flyers to switch over.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 2:19 pm

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
AirBrian wrote:
Just got back from Ohio. Flew United through ORD both ways. United has to go back to mainline. E175 is a great regional plane but a 4 hour plus flight is pretty rough on that size plane


From a customer standpoint, I agree with you. However, the loads haven’t been the best on these flights. How full were your flights to/from ORD?


Loads are definitely looking a lot better now that they were a month ago. Also, I've been noticing that first class shows half booked or more almost every day. Still, with the majority of travel still leisure, I'm guessing UA isn't seeing the yields that they had in 2019 or before. With competition on the route and 2 mainline arguably close to or at/above the limit for it, we might see them try IAH instead of upguaging, especially with Florida being so popular right now (although not sure how much appeal Florida has to Fresnans).
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:18 pm

DOT April numbers were posted today.

For what a week's worth looks like for WN at FAT: LAS 62% LF; DEN 59%. Meanwhile, down at SBA: LAS 40%; OAK 36%; DEN at 46%.

Notable at FAT during April, F9 recorded an 88% LF. G4 71%. Overall, a big jump in April across the board, which as we know now, looks pale compared to May and June. I travel WN every other week and it's pretty rare that even mid-week that a flight isn't at least 90%...and the fares are not cheap.

Of the other new cities in CA, PSP-PHX remains weak (56%), but other PSP, meaning, DEN (81%) and OAK (75%) are doing much better.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:23 pm

whatusaid wrote:
DOT April numbers were posted today.

For what a week's worth looks like for WN at FAT: LAS 62% LF; DEN 59%. Meanwhile, down at SBA: LAS 40%; OAK 36%; DEN at 46%.

Notable at FAT during April, F9 recorded an 88% LF. G4 71%. Overall, a big jump in April across the board, which as we know now, looks pale compared to May and June. I travel WN every other week and it's pretty rare that even mid-week that a flight isn't at least 90%...and the fares are not cheap.

Of the other new cities in CA, PSP-PHX remains weak (56%), but other PSP, meaning, DEN (81%) and OAK (75%) are doing much better.


Out of curiosity, how did the various airlines do to LAX?
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:42 pm

UA was 78% and DL and AS 40%. Can’t pull up other than by operating carrier or ac type. UA had one or two flights a day...2650 pax for the month. SAN was 56%, so a little recovery noted.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 5273
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 10:05 pm

whatusaid wrote:
DOT April numbers were posted today.

For what a week's worth looks like for WN at FAT: LAS 62% LF; DEN 59%. Meanwhile, down at SBA: LAS 40%; OAK 36%; DEN at 46%.

Notable at FAT during April, F9 recorded an 88% LF. G4 71%. Overall, a big jump in April across the board, which as we know now, looks pale compared to May and June. I travel WN every other week and it's pretty rare that even mid-week that a flight isn't at least 90%...and the fares are not cheap.

Of the other new cities in CA, PSP-PHX remains weak (56%), but other PSP, meaning, DEN (81%) and OAK (75%) are doing much better.


My guess is SBA will track similar numbers to BUR's recovery since they will probably share the Ventura County area for drawing some WN travelers. Those April SBA numbers look similar to the overall LF at BUR for April.
 
DaCubbyBearBar
Posts: 344
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:31 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 10:09 pm

whatusaid wrote:
DOT April numbers were posted today.

For what a week's worth looks like for WN at FAT: LAS 62% LF; DEN 59%. Meanwhile, down at SBA: LAS 40%; OAK 36%; DEN at 46%.

Notable at FAT during April, F9 recorded an 88% LF. G4 71%. Overall, a big jump in April across the board, which as we know now, looks pale compared to May and June. I travel WN every other week and it's pretty rare that even mid-week that a flight isn't at least 90%...and the fares are not cheap.

Of the other new cities in CA, PSP-PHX remains weak (56%), but other PSP, meaning, DEN (81%) and OAK (75%) are doing much better.

Interesting numbers…. SWA still new to the markets and it will be interesting to see the summer numbers. Thanks for the information
 
iflykpdx
Posts: 289
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2007 8:42 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 10:10 pm

Just got this week's AAAE newsletter and it included the item that FAT director Kevin Meikle will be retiring in the fall:

Fresno Airport Director Kevin Meikle To Retire

Kevin Meikle, director of aviation and architect for the city of Fresno Airport System, which includes Fresno Yosemite International and Fresco Candler Executive airports, announced he will retire in in the fall. The city of Fresno will conduct a national search for his replacement. Meikle has served 32 years with the city of Fresno, 19 years in the airports department and over the last eight years as aviation director
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:19 am

iflykpdx wrote:
Just got this week's AAAE newsletter and it included the item that FAT director Kevin Meikle will be retiring in the fall:

Fresno Airport Director Kevin Meikle To Retire

Kevin Meikle, director of aviation and architect for the city of Fresno Airport System, which includes Fresno Yosemite International and Fresco Candler Executive airports, announced he will retire in in the fall. The city of Fresno will conduct a national search for his replacement. Meikle has served 32 years with the city of Fresno, 19 years in the airports department and over the last eight years as aviation director


Interesting. Hopefully whoever replaces him will be a *tiny bit* less timid about terminal expansion. The current mayor and the council member who's district includes the airport both appear to be more bullish than their predecessors when it comes to that.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:39 am

flyfresno wrote:
iflykpdx wrote:
Just got this week's AAAE newsletter and it included the item that FAT director Kevin Meikle will be retiring in the fall:

Fresno Airport Director Kevin Meikle To Retire

Kevin Meikle, director of aviation and architect for the city of Fresno Airport System, which includes Fresno Yosemite International and Fresco Candler Executive airports, announced he will retire in in the fall. The city of Fresno will conduct a national search for his replacement. Meikle has served 32 years with the city of Fresno, 19 years in the airports department and over the last eight years as aviation director


Interesting. Hopefully whoever replaces him will be a *tiny bit* less timid about terminal expansion. The current mayor and the council member who's district includes the airport both appear to be more bullish than their predecessors when it comes to that.


I hope so as well. Expansion is needed badly at FAT and passengers will start to complain to the airport about the congestion the airport is dealing with. It also defers new growth which should always be accommodated for.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 5273
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:48 am

iflykpdx wrote:
Just got this week's AAAE newsletter and it included the item that FAT director Kevin Meikle will be retiring in the fall:

Fresno Airport Director Kevin Meikle To Retire

Kevin Meikle, director of aviation and architect for the city of Fresno Airport System, which includes Fresno Yosemite International and Fresco Candler Executive airports, announced he will retire in in the fall. The city of Fresno will conduct a national search for his replacement. Meikle has served 32 years with the city of Fresno, 19 years in the airports department and over the last eight years as aviation director


He had hinted not long ago that he would be around less than another year or two. I did not suspect it would be this Fall though.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jul 17, 2021 5:47 pm

DL updated their September schedule. No A319. Just CRJ-700s and E175s.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 1:49 am

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
DL updated their September schedule. No A319. Just CRJ-700s and E175s.


Important to note, however, that SLC stays at 5X per day. That's pretty big.
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 2:14 am

Frontier updated as well. 3X week stays into October.
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 2:17 pm

Here's all of April from the DOT filing.. Read as: Seats/Passengers/AIrline/Destination/Aircraft/Load Factor

152 37 Horizon Air LAX 673 24%
180 145 Allegiant Air LAS 694 81%
1500 1319 Frontier Airlines Inc. DEN 698 88%
496 422 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 673 85%
858 505 Southwest Airlines Co. DEN 612 59%
912 528 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SLC 638 58%
1680 1546 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 631 92%
2052 1586 Horizon Air SEA 673 77%
2280 1750 Horizon Air PDX 482 77%
2431 1506 Southwest Airlines Co. LAS 612 62%
2600 2149 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SFO 629 83%
2650 2067 SkyWest Airlines Inc. LAX 629 78%
2688 2250 American Airlines Inc. DFW698 84%
3000 2773 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 629 92%
3652 2124 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SLC 673 58%
4071 2387 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SLC 631 59%
4332 2408 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SAN 673 56%
5855 5376 SkyWest Airlines Inc. PHX 631 92%
6444 2544 SkyWest Airlines Inc. LAX 673 39%
6840 4852 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SEA 673 71%
7488 5340 Allegiant Air LAS 698 71%
10148 9672 American Airlines Inc. DFW 614 95%
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 2:59 pm

whatusaid wrote:
180 145 Allegiant Air LAS 694 81%
7488 5340 Allegiant Air LAS 698 71%
2431 1506 Southwest Airlines Co. LAS 612 62%


I'll be curious to see how much market share WN takes from G4 during the summer. Also, how much this route grows in general.

1500 1319 Frontier Airlines Inc. DEN 698 88%
496 422 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 673 85%
858 505 Southwest Airlines Co. DEN 612 59%
1680 1546 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 631 92%
3000 2773 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 629 92%


Interesting to see WN doing so poorly compared to F9 and UA, but this is also still super early in their service, so maybe not a fair comparison yet. Also, same question about market share as LAS (guessing taking more from F9 than UA).

912 528 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SLC 638 58%
3652 2124 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SLC 673 58%
4071 2387 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SLC 631 59%


We talked a lot about likely poor O&D to LAX, and flights to SoCal in general have not recovered like other routes, but it could also be that DL saw LAX as cannibalizing SLC too much too, these loads seem fairly poor compared to peer hubs in DFW/DEN/PHX. We don't have access to connecting numbers of course, but I'd be curious to see how many LAX connections were/are to places that are just as easily reached from SLC.

6840 4852 SkyWest Airlines Inc. SEA 673 71%
2052 1586 Horizon Air SEA 673 77%


Not as strong as DFW, but still pretty good. Will mainline cause this route to grown enough that DL decides to go daily to compete?

2688 2250 American Airlines Inc. DFW 698 84%
10148 9672 American Airlines Inc. DFW 614 95%


WOW, great numbers...AA seems to be (remain) the preferred airline of choice headed East. I'll be curious to see how ORD impacts this.

Thanks for posting!
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 5:52 pm

flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
180 145 Allegiant Air LAS 694 81%
7488 5340 Allegiant Air LAS 698 71%
2431 1506 Southwest Airlines Co. LAS 612 62%


I'll be curious to see how much market share WN takes from G4 during the summer. Also, how much this route grows in general.

1500 1319 Frontier Airlines Inc. DEN 698 88%
496 422 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 673 85%
858 505 Southwest Airlines Co. DEN 612 59%
1680 1546 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 631 92%
3000 2773 SkyWest Airlines Inc. DEN 629 92%


Interesting to see WN doing so poorly compared to F9 and UA, but this is also still super early in their service, so maybe not a fair comparison yet. Also, same question about market share as LAS (guessing taking more from F9 than UA).

[quote]

WN was Sunday through Friday of the last week of April. Not sure you really can make much of anything from the numbers. DEN-FAT came in at 66%, stronger than outbound. Deeper into the F9 stats, FAT is in the top 20 of F9's DEN markets. Again, do you make much of two flights a week? Historically, FAT has been a decent market for F9 and the 88% is about average.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 10:35 pm

F9’s current September schedule shows that we get A321s on Mondays that month.
 
FlyLEN2019
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:08 am

AS updated their October and November schedules. LAX is down to one daily. SAN is 1-2 daily. SEA is down to 3 daily with 2 Dash 8s on it in November. We also lose daily mainline in October and there is none in November. PDX is down to once daily on the E175. Also another note is that every flight will be operated by Horizon except the LAX flight and one of the SAN flights.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:53 am

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
AS updated their October and November schedules. LAX is down to one daily. SAN is 1-2 daily. SEA is down to 3 daily with 2 Dash 8s on it in November. We also lose daily mainline in October and there is none in November. PDX is down to once daily on the E175. Also another note is that every flight will be operated by Horizon except the LAX flight and one of the SAN flights.


Where are you seeing that? I'm still seeing mainline in November when I look...
 
whatusaid
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:11 pm

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:41 am

flyfresno wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
AS updated their October and November schedules. LAX is down to one daily. SAN is 1-2 daily. SEA is down to 3 daily with 2 Dash 8s on it in November. We also lose daily mainline in October and there is none in November. PDX is down to once daily on the E175. Also another note is that every flight will be operated by Horizon except the LAX flight and one of the SAN flights.


Where are you seeing that? I'm still seeing mainline in November when I look...


AS has a holiday schedule where we regress about five years. PDX goes from a Q to 2x 175 and SEA goes 2x Q. AS scheduling must every so often reaffirm that their schedules are subject to monthly swings that seem determined to slow customer accceptance.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:00 pm

whatusaid wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
AS updated their October and November schedules. LAX is down to one daily. SAN is 1-2 daily. SEA is down to 3 daily with 2 Dash 8s on it in November. We also lose daily mainline in October and there is none in November. PDX is down to once daily on the E175. Also another note is that every flight will be operated by Horizon except the LAX flight and one of the SAN flights.


Where are you seeing that? I'm still seeing mainline in November when I look...


AS has a holiday schedule where we regress about five years. PDX goes from a Q to 2x 175 and SEA goes 2x Q. AS scheduling must every so often reaffirm that their schedules are subject to monthly swings that seem determined to slow customer accceptance.


UA did this a couple years back, if I remember right. They dropped ORD and went to like 3X CR2s to DEN, for Christmas (or something like that).

This could be bad news for yields...it's saying that they think they can get a greater revenue premium (especially in first) in other markets...

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