Fresno Aviation Thread - 2021

flyfresno · Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:40 pm

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
The FIS fee will decrease slightly to $10.38/pax (down from $12.00 last year).

Wonder what's driving this? They can't be going after more international (can they?) with the FIS already so strained. I would have expected them to raise FIS fees a bit and then maybe lower them when the new customs facilities open...

They are probably trying to attract more international service. There isn’t much room for it, but they could also be trying to get the smaller Mexico destinations to have more frequency (I personally think this could be directed at Y4’s MEX service because it’ll decrease the total amount of money needed to operate the flight, as MEX is a super expensive airport to hold slots in)

Well, a daytime on AM (not gonna happen right now with the safety issues as well as their overall problems) to MEX would be nice, as would a daytime to GDL, but until new routes to Mexico are allowed on AM/Y4, the only service that this could really be aimed at is US carriers to beach cities (next best shot after those would probably be an airline like Avianca, but let's be realistic...).

FATFlyer · Tue Jun 22, 2021 4:03 pm

The FIS fee reduction is based on the formula in the link I posted. It is 6 cost/expense items combined divided by the number of arriving international passengers.

In simple terms, it is the FIS debt service and other FIS operating expenses divided by the number of annual international arriving passengers.

Most likely the reduction is caused by the expected increase in international passengers this fiscal year compared to last year during COVID. That would spread the cost/expense over more passengers. But the reduction could also reflect an expense reduction. I don't know the numbers used for the calculation.

Once the new FIS is complete, its associated debt will increase which likely will also raise the FIS fee a few dollars in the future.

whatusaid · Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:46 pm

The airport has posted the April stats. Down about 20% from April 2019. Knowing that WN came in at the end of the month, there's no doubt to the airport claims of record traffic since May. https://flyfresno.com/wp-content/upload ... l-2021.pdf.

whatusaid · Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:28 am

AS schedule updated for Sept this evening. As reported earlier, 739 is on the 2:30p to SEA. All other markets see changes in departure times that are pretty significant. First class to SEA on the 739 is a bargain, as low as $159.

FlyLEN2019 · Sun Jun 27, 2021 11:41 am

whatusaid wrote:
AS schedule updated for Sept this evening. As reported earlier, 739 is on the 2:30p to SEA. All other markets see changes in departure times that are pretty significant. First class to SEA on the 739 is a bargain, as low as $159.

That is great news for FAT! Every single airline except DL will have a turn on a mainline aircraft each day (subject to change if those rumors ab the DL A319 on SLC are true)! Now I wonder if anyone will respond to this add of mainline (WN/DL I’m looking at you).

flyfresno · Sun Jun 27, 2021 1:52 pm

whatusaid wrote:
AS schedule updated for Sept this evening. As reported earlier, 739 is on the 2:30p to SEA. All other markets see changes in departure times that are pretty significant. First class to SEA on the 739 is a bargain, as low as $159.

SAN still planned at 2 per day...surprising since it was basically as strong as SEA prior to the pandemic, now it's definitely lagging behind...

FATFlyer · Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:15 pm

flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
AS schedule updated for Sept this evening. As reported earlier, 739 is on the 2:30p to SEA. All other markets see changes in departure times that are pretty significant. First class to SEA on the 739 is a bargain, as low as $159.

SAN still planned at 2 per day...surprising since it was basically as strong as SEA prior to the pandemic, now it's definitely lagging behind...

FAT-SAN may still be weak demand. The drive may still be preferred by some instead of a flight in the post-pandemic recovery.

whatusaid · Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:59 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
AS schedule updated for Sept this evening. As reported earlier, 739 is on the 2:30p to SEA. All other markets see changes in departure times that are pretty significant. First class to SEA on the 739 is a bargain, as low as $159.

SAN still planned at 2 per day...surprising since it was basically as strong as SEA prior to the pandemic, now it's definitely lagging behind...

FAT-SAN may still be weak demand. The drive may still be preferred by some instead of a flight in the post-pandemic recovery.

FAT-SAN could be limited by the lack of business travel. The medical and Naval traffic in recent months is a fraction of the pre-Covid days. Maybe some loss to WN?

If AS would have continued the 739 to HNL, that would have been good. But, connecting times are long. Is the entire 739 fleet ETOPS?

Wneast · Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:02 pm

whatusaid wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

SAN still planned at 2 per day...surprising since it was basically as strong as SEA prior to the pandemic, now it's definitely lagging behind...

FAT-SAN may still be weak demand. The drive may still be preferred by some instead of a flight in the post-pandemic recovery.

FAT-SAN could be limited by the lack of business travel. The medical and Naval traffic in recent months is a fraction of the pre-Covid days. Maybe some loss to WN?

If AS would have continued the 739 to HNL, that would have been good. But, connecting times are long. Is the entire 739 fleet ETOPS?

Does anyone know If they can see if 739 is etops scheduled ?

FATFlyer · Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:38 pm

whatusaid wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

SAN still planned at 2 per day...surprising since it was basically as strong as SEA prior to the pandemic, now it's definitely lagging behind...

FAT-SAN may still be weak demand. The drive may still be preferred by some instead of a flight in the post-pandemic recovery.

FAT-SAN could be limited by the lack of business travel. The medical and Naval traffic in recent months is a fraction of the pre-Covid days. Maybe some loss to WN?

If AS would have continued the 739 to HNL, that would have been good. But, connecting times are long. Is the entire 739 fleet ETOPS?

My understanding is that about half the 739s are ETOPS. I may be wrong but that seems to be the info I remember.

flyfresno · Mon Jun 28, 2021 12:35 am

So, if mainline "sticks" this time (which seems likely considering that September is so close), if someone was able to take a time machine back to September of 2016, how many of us would they be able to convince that over the next 5 years FAT would get mainline service from UA, WN, and AS, and have multiple carriers flying to ORD, all despite a major global crisis that reduced air travel by up to 3/4 for more than a year?

Wneast · Mon Jun 28, 2021 12:39 am

With AS slacking on SAN WN should get on that route well they can

FlyLEN2019 · Mon Jun 28, 2021 3:49 am

flyfresno wrote:
So, if mainline "sticks" this time (which seems likely considering that September is so close), if someone was able to take a time machine back to September of 2016, how many of us would they be able to convince that over the next 5 years FAT would get mainline service from UA, WN, and AS, and have multiple carriers flying to ORD, all despite a major global crisis that reduced air travel by up to 3/4 for more than a year?

Not me lol. I’m super excited to see what’s to come! I bet at least until this expansion is complete, the next new flights won’t really be in peak times always, but in times to fill up the day full of flights, with flights in the late morning and late afternoon into the evening. I could also see an increase of red eyes if we get destinations like IAH/HOU, ATL, and MSP.

Wneast · Mon Jun 28, 2021 3:57 am

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
So, if mainline "sticks" this time (which seems likely considering that September is so close), if someone was able to take a time machine back to September of 2016, how many of us would they be able to convince that over the next 5 years FAT would get mainline service from UA, WN, and AS, and have multiple carriers flying to ORD, all despite a major global crisis that reduced air travel by up to 3/4 for more than a year?

Not me lol. I’m super excited to see what’s to come! I bet at least until this expansion is complete, the next new flights won’t really be in peak times always, but in times to fill up the day full of flights, with flights in the late morning and late afternoon into the evening. I could also see an increase of red eyes if we get destinations like IAH/HOU, ATL, and MSP.

HOU and others on WN need to happen

whatusaid · Mon Jun 28, 2021 3:59 am

Decades ago when FatFlyer and I were involved in airline recruitment and marketing, then Airport Mgr Terry Cooper had a pic of an AS 737 in his office. It was something of his dream at the time to see this happen. We all busted our butts to bring Horizon and their noisy F28’s to FAT. I do hope it sticks. I remember well the day Alaska asked us, why should we serve Fresno when Sacramento wasn’t doing so well. They took a chance and it’s been good for all concerned. Let’s hope it gets better for them and FAT.

whatusaid · Mon Jun 28, 2021 4:00 am

whatusaid wrote:
Decades ago when FatFlyer and I were involved in airline recruitment and marketing, then Airport Mgr Terry Cooper had a pic of an AS 737 in his office. It was something of his dream at the time to see this happen. We all busted our butts to bring Horizon and their noisy F28’s to FAT. I do hope mainline sticks. I remember well the day Alaska asked us, why should we serve Fresno when Sacramento wasn’t doing so well. They took a chance and it’s been good for all concerned. Let’s hope it gets better for them and FAT.

AirBrian · Mon Jun 28, 2021 6:17 am

Anyone know what gate united uses for the E175 to ORD? Is it at a jetway or the downstairs crj gates?

flyfresno · Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:17 pm

AirBrian wrote:
Anyone know what gate united uses for the E175 to ORD? Is it at a jetway or the downstairs crj gates?

I was there a week ago and it was upstairs...15.

flyfresno · Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:21 pm

whatusaid wrote:
Decades ago when FatFlyer and I were involved in airline recruitment and marketing, then Airport Mgr Terry Cooper had a pic of an AS 737 in his office. It was something of his dream at the time to see this happen. We all busted our butts to bring Horizon and their noisy F28’s to FAT. I do hope it sticks. I remember well the day Alaska asked us, why should we serve Fresno when Sacramento wasn’t doing so well. They took a chance and it’s been good for all concerned. Let’s hope it gets better for them and FAT.

And now AS is close to being (if not at) the second biggest airline at FAT...quite an accomplishment for you guys!

Sort of reminds me of SMF and WN, which was super reluctant to serve the airport but is now by far the largest airline there. I could see AS becoming #1 at FAT, especially if SEA adds another mainline, SAN goes back to 4X, and HNL starts up.

Ironically, their main competition is their own partner.

flyfresno · Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:31 pm

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
I could also see an increase of red eyes if we get destinations like IAH/HOU, ATL, and MSP.

IAH would make sense as a redeye, and I think it's UA's next move, especially now that they are competing to ORD.

WN doesn't really fly redeyes, so sort of doubt that.

SY would likely operate a redeye to MSP.

DL only really does redeyes to MSP from major destinations (plus Alaska), SMF is a morning flight and others are mid-day. ATL would almost definitely be a redeye though.

We will see!

FATFlyer · Mon Jun 28, 2021 5:16 pm

whatusaid wrote:
Decades ago when FatFlyer and I were involved in airline recruitment and marketing, then Airport Mgr Terry Cooper had a pic of an AS 737 in his office. It was something of his dream at the time to see this happen. We all busted our butts to bring Horizon and their noisy F28’s to FAT. I do hope it sticks. I remember well the day Alaska asked us, why should we serve Fresno when Sacramento wasn’t doing so well. They took a chance and it’s been good for all concerned. Let’s hope it gets better for them and FAT.

I remember being at the gate for that first F28 arrival from SEA back in 1999. It was N498US. Horizon named it the "Great City of Fresno" which was a nice touch since it had previously flown for Air 21. So an aircraft that was formerly with a Fresno-based airline carried the city name for Horizon during its years in the QX fleet.

Terry, Patti, you, etc. It was a good group of people back then that accomplished much and laid a lot of the foundation for today. Terry died over 20 years ago but I am sure he is smiling at what is happening at the airport these days.

My guess is that at least 1 AS 737 will stick in the future.

TWA302 · Mon Jun 28, 2021 9:04 pm

Hey all. Flew out of FAT for the first time this weekend on WN back to STL after a week at Shaver Lake. First off, nice airport and growing with that big new garage. I was really shocked at the lack of food options though. J. Muir tavern had one food option, French Fries. :lol:

not kidding. We were kind of shocked at that. They said it was related to COVID and only having a limited menu :?:

Does anyone know when that will change or if there are plans to add another option? Seems with ramped up flights into FAT it would make sense to have some food. Note, they had those pre-packed sandwiches :ill:

which didn't seem appetizing. Thanks! Also, sorry if this is nit picky, but just expected a few options since we didn't eat outside the airport before our flight.

flyfresno · Mon Jun 28, 2021 9:28 pm

TWA302 wrote:
Hey all. Flew out of FAT for the first time this weekend on WN back to STL after a week at Shaver Lake. First off, nice airport and growing with that big new garage. I was really shocked at the lack of food options though. J. Muir tavern had one food option, French Fries. not kidding. We were kind of shocked at that. They said it was related to COVID and only having a limited menu Does anyone know when that will change or if there are plans to add another option? Seems with ramped up flights into FAT it would make sense to have some food. Note, they had those pre-packed sandwiches which didn't seem appetizing. Thanks! Also, sorry if this is nit picky, but just expected a few options since we didn't eat outside the airport before our flight.

No need to apologize, you are spot on, food options suck big time at FAT.

There's supposed to be a new food court with the expansion...I'd guess two fast food style options.

They definitely need some (real) Mexican food, and then something else.

TWA302 · Mon Jun 28, 2021 9:49 pm

flyfresno wrote:
TWA302 wrote:
Hey all. Flew out of FAT for the first time this weekend on WN back to STL after a week at Shaver Lake. First off, nice airport and growing with that big new garage. I was really shocked at the lack of food options though. J. Muir tavern had one food option, French Fries. not kidding. We were kind of shocked at that. They said it was related to COVID and only having a limited menu Does anyone know when that will change or if there are plans to add another option? Seems with ramped up flights into FAT it would make sense to have some food. Note, they had those pre-packed sandwiches which didn't seem appetizing. Thanks! Also, sorry if this is nit picky, but just expected a few options since we didn't eat outside the airport before our flight.

No need to apologize, you are spot on, food options suck big time at FAT.

There's supposed to be a new food court with the expansion...I'd guess two fast food style options.

They definitely need some (real) Mexican food, and then something else.

Thanks for the info. That would make sense. I don't expect 5* at any airport, just options where you can get a greasy burger if you want or something healthy too. Guess we will see on the next trip :stirthepot:

SANFan · Mon Jun 28, 2021 10:22 pm

The current version of AS's Sept 8 schedule, now only a bit over 2 months away, is prolly pretty close to finalized.

That being said, I'm glad FAT finally got the mainline flight to SEA that's been projected for some time! Fill 'er up folks!

I'm quite disappointed to see that SAN-FAT, on that same sked, is not even offering full double-daily service as one of the 2 flights only op's 4 days/week! (That's a slight reduction from the Aug 17 schedule.) Even LAX-FAT is going to see a full 14 flights/week. I thought I had read that SAN apparently was doing better than LAX with traffic to/from FAT. I guess that's old news. (Of course there could still be adjustments to that September schedule but I'd bet it stays pretty much unchanged from this point on.)

I do maintain some optimism since AS continues to show 4x daily FAT-SAN service on the future skeds, including October's, which tells me they are expecting/hoping to return soon to the traffic level that will support that many flights.

I continue to enjoy all the excitement FAT's growth and development are creating on A.net these days! Good for you folks!

bb

FATFlyer · Mon Jun 28, 2021 11:27 pm

TWA302 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
TWA302 wrote:
Hey all. Flew out of FAT for the first time this weekend on WN back to STL after a week at Shaver Lake. First off, nice airport and growing with that big new garage. I was really shocked at the lack of food options though. J. Muir tavern had one food option, French Fries. not kidding. We were kind of shocked at that. They said it was related to COVID and only having a limited menu Does anyone know when that will change or if there are plans to add another option? Seems with ramped up flights into FAT it would make sense to have some food. Note, they had those pre-packed sandwiches which didn't seem appetizing. Thanks! Also, sorry if this is nit picky, but just expected a few options since we didn't eat outside the airport before our flight.

No need to apologize, you are spot on, food options suck big time at FAT.

There's supposed to be a new food court with the expansion...I'd guess two fast food style options.

They definitely need some (real) Mexican food, and then something else.

Thanks for the info. That would make sense. I don't expect 5* at any airport, just options where you can get a greasy burger if you want or something healthy too. Guess we will see on the next trip

Normally the Muir Tavern has burgers, chicken, fish, sandwiches, salads, breakfast, etc. Even a few weeks ago they did have burgers on the limited post-COVID menu.

But I have heard the concession company has had problems hiring to refill job openings after last year. Supposedly kitchen help was one employee shortage so maybe your experience was connected with that.

They are aware of the problems, but you might drop a message to airport administration about your experience at this link. It might help them to put pressure on the concession company to get things restored quicker if they get passenger feedback.
http://flyfresno.com/contact-us/

The concourse expansion project starting next year is supposedly doubling the square footage post-security for food choices. But that does not help in the current boom. Also a new concession contract will go out to bid in a few years which will help. But if the Muir Tavern can get back up and running fully that helps.

It is still an improvement over the old days when the lobby restaurant was the main choice and post-security passengers only could get a bad hot dog that had been on the rollers for too long. :thumbsdown:

TWA302 · Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:09 am

FATFlyer wrote:
TWA302 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

No need to apologize, you are spot on, food options suck big time at FAT.

There's supposed to be a new food court with the expansion...I'd guess two fast food style options.

They definitely need some (real) Mexican food, and then something else.

Thanks for the info. That would make sense. I don't expect 5* at any airport, just options where you can get a greasy burger if you want or something healthy too. Guess we will see on the next trip

Normally the Muir Tavern has burgers, chicken, fish, sandwiches, salads, breakfast, etc. Even a few weeks ago they did have burgers on the limited post-COVID menu.

But I have heard the concession company has had problems hiring to refill job openings after last year. Supposedly kitchen help was one employee shortage so maybe your experience was connected with that.

They are aware of the problems, but you might drop a message to airport administration about your experience at this link. It might help them to put pressure on the concession company to get things restored quicker if they get passenger feedback.
http://flyfresno.com/contact-us/

The concourse expansion project starting next year is supposedly doubling the square footage post-security for food choices. But that does not help in the current boom. Also a new concession contract will go out to bid in a few years which will help. But if the Muir Tavern can get back up and running fully that helps.

It is still an improvement over the old days when the lobby restaurant was the main choice and post-security passengers only could get a bad hot dog that had been on the rollers for too long.

Thanks! I did send a message to that address before I posted just to let them know my family's experience. I totally get the shortage of worker issue, especially since extra unemployment benefits are still around. It is just the first airport experience where this happened and we have been flying since last September including smaller airports than FAT. Keep up the great work there. Airport looks great!

FlyLEN2019 · Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:02 am

flyfresno wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
I could also see an increase of red eyes if we get destinations like IAH/HOU, ATL, and MSP.

IAH would make sense as a redeye, and I think it's UA's next move, especially now that they are competing to ORD.

WN doesn't really fly redeyes, so sort of doubt that.

SY would likely operate a redeye to MSP.

DL only really does redeyes to MSP from major destinations (plus Alaska), SMF is a morning flight and others are mid-day. ATL would almost definitely be a redeye though.

We will see!

After saying HOU, I instantly remembered WN’s lack of red eyes lol. I was just trying to get the point off that I think we will see an increase in red eyes to new destinations.

Tan Flyr · Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:25 pm

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
I could also see an increase of red eyes if we get destinations like IAH/HOU, ATL, and MSP.

IAH would make sense as a redeye, and I think it's UA's next move, especially now that they are competing to ORD.

WN doesn't really fly redeyes, so sort of doubt that.

SY would likely operate a redeye to MSP.

DL only really does redeyes to MSP from major destinations (plus Alaska), SMF is a morning flight and others are mid-day. ATL would almost definitely be a redeye though.

We will see!

After saying HOU, I instantly remembered WN’s lack of red eyes lol. I was just trying to get the point off that I think we will see an increase in red eyes to new destinations.

The AA and UA service to ORD certainly covers many connections to the whole upper mid-west/Great Lakes and New England fairly well. IF DL wanted to come in and make a mainline splash..it really should be to ATL. That would not only give a second choice to many SE cites (most covered by AA thru DFW), but perhaps more importantly a single connection to second tier cities in the SE.

IMHO, that mainline flight could add more organic growth..but for now would have to be a red-eye east bound. (late afternoon/ early evening departure Westbound.)

FlyLEN2019 · Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:53 pm

Tan Flyr wrote:
FlyLEN2019 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

IAH would make sense as a redeye, and I think it's UA's next move, especially now that they are competing to ORD.

WN doesn't really fly redeyes, so sort of doubt that.

SY would likely operate a redeye to MSP.

DL only really does redeyes to MSP from major destinations (plus Alaska), SMF is a morning flight and others are mid-day. ATL would almost definitely be a redeye though.

We will see!

After saying HOU, I instantly remembered WN’s lack of red eyes lol. I was just trying to get the point off that I think we will see an increase in red eyes to new destinations.

The AA and UA service to ORD certainly covers many connections to the whole upper mid-west/Great Lakes and New England fairly well. IF DL wanted to come in and make a mainline splash..it really should be to ATL. That would not only give a second choice to many SE cites (most covered by AA thru DFW), but perhaps more importantly a single connection to second tier cities in the SE.

IMHO, that mainline flight could add more organic growth..but for now would have to be a red-eye east bound. (late afternoon/ early evening departure Westbound.)

Yea, an ATL flight would most likely be a red eye to start. I also think that DL is interested in adding mainline on SLC because of what WN, UA, and F9 are doing with tons of mainline flying the route at around the same time. DL’s A319 would fit in during the noon rush in that case.

On another note, I feel like UA adding IAH is bound to happen very soon. It would honestly stimulate DL to add ATL imo.

flyfresno · Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:14 pm

The Business Journal did a story today about the passenger volumes at FAT. One paragraph stood out among the others:

"According to a TSA press release, passenger screening volumes at FAT are currently more than 120% of 2019—meaning the airport has recovered its travel volume rates by 100%, with a 20% increase since June 2019."

https://thebusinessjournal.com/fresno-a ... 0c5c89aee4

flyfresno · Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:21 pm

Tan Flyr wrote:
The AA and UA service to ORD certainly covers many connections to the whole upper mid-west/Great Lakes and New England fairly well. IF DL wanted to come in and make a mainline splash..it really should be to ATL. That would not only give a second choice to many SE cites (most covered by AA thru DFW), but perhaps more importantly a single connection to second tier cities in the SE.

IMHO, that mainline flight could add more organic growth..but for now would have to be a red-eye east bound. (late afternoon/ early evening departure Westbound.)

I agree with most of what you said, and add that ATL provides significantly more connections than MSP, and schedule-wise, an ATL redeye would provide the most variety (a 6am or noon MSP flight would definitely "compete" against existing SLC flights way more than a 10pm ATL would).

However, remember that MSP has significantly more O&D to/from FAT than ATL does. In addition to the strong Hmong/SE Asian communities in both cities, there is a lot of agribusiness travel between the two. DL would need to balance that, who knows which is more compelling.

FATFlyer · Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:49 pm

Tan Flyr wrote:
The AA and UA service to ORD certainly covers many connections to the whole upper mid-west/Great Lakes and New England fairly well. IF DL wanted to come in and make a mainline splash..it really should be to ATL. That would not only give a second choice to many SE cites (most covered by AA thru DFW), but perhaps more importantly a single connection to second tier cities in the SE.

IMHO, that mainline flight could add more organic growth..but for now would have to be a red-eye east bound. (late afternoon/ early evening departure Westbound.)

Fresno is the largest or second largest US metro area without ATL nonstops. Given the bump in passengers this year we should be closer to DL considering adding that route.

FAT-ATL would give DL one connection service to not just the southeast but also the entire east coast and many international. Service to that hub from FAT could compete even better with ORD and DFW connections.

I used DL for a pre-COVID international flight but the 2 connecting flights to reach ATL almost pushed me to other options. Given the new flight choices I'm not sure DL would be my choice now.

Wneast · Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:53 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
Tan Flyr wrote:
The AA and UA service to ORD certainly covers many connections to the whole upper mid-west/Great Lakes and New England fairly well. IF DL wanted to come in and make a mainline splash..it really should be to ATL. That would not only give a second choice to many SE cites (most covered by AA thru DFW), but perhaps more importantly a single connection to second tier cities in the SE.

IMHO, that mainline flight could add more organic growth..but for now would have to be a red-eye east bound. (late afternoon/ early evening departure Westbound.)

Fresno is the largest or second largest US metro area without ATL nonstops. Given the bump in passengers this year we should be closer to DL considering adding that route.

FAT-ATL would give DL one connection service to not just the southeast but also the entire east coast and many international. Service to that hub from FAT could compete even better with ORD and DFW connections.

I used DL for a pre-COVID international flight but the 2 connecting flights to reach ATL almost pushed me to other options. Given the new flight choices I'm not sure DL would be my choice now.

What other routes are underserved from FAT ?

flyfresno · Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:04 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
FAT-ATL would give DL one connection service to not just the southeast but also the entire east coast and many international. Service to that hub from FAT could compete even better with ORD and DFW connections.

I used DL for a pre-COVID international flight but the 2 connecting flights to reach ATL almost pushed me to other options. Given the new flight choices I'm not sure DL would be my choice now.

The one thing I'll say about international flights from ATL is, other than to the Caribbean and Central America, redeyes from the West Coast are poorly timed to connect to them. Europe largely departs between 3pm-ish and 9pm-ish, and most of South America and JNB depart around 7pm. This would make for en extremely long day in ATL, and two consecutive redeyes. While many European cities work well connecting westbound back to FAT, most of South America plus JNB also arrive early AM into ATL, making for a long day that direction too. Because of that, I'm guessing that there won't be a ton of international connections (again, aside from Central America and the Caribbean) through ATL if it's a redeye schedule (which seems the most likely).

FATFlyer · Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:18 am

flyfresno wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
FAT-ATL would give DL one connection service to not just the southeast but also the entire east coast and many international. Service to that hub from FAT could compete even better with ORD and DFW connections.

I used DL for a pre-COVID international flight but the 2 connecting flights to reach ATL almost pushed me to other options. Given the new flight choices I'm not sure DL would be my choice now.

The one thing I'll say about international flights from ATL is, other than to the Caribbean and Central America, redeyes from the West Coast are poorly timed to connect to them. Europe largely departs between 3pm-ish and 9pm-ish, and most of South America and JNB depart around 7pm. This would make for en extremely long day in ATL, and two consecutive redeyes. While many European cities work well connecting westbound back to FAT, most of South America plus JNB also arrive early AM into ATL, making for a long day that direction too. Because of that, I'm guessing that there won't be a ton of international connections (again, aside from Central America and the Caribbean) through ATL if it's a redeye schedule (which seems the most likely).

I am not sure FAT-ATL-FAT would necessarily be a redeye both ways or even one-way. That impacts domestic connections. A redeye schedule would then be up against the current daytime schedules to say an Orlando.

flyfresno · Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:09 am

FATFlyer wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
FAT-ATL would give DL one connection service to not just the southeast but also the entire east coast and many international. Service to that hub from FAT could compete even better with ORD and DFW connections.

I used DL for a pre-COVID international flight but the 2 connecting flights to reach ATL almost pushed me to other options. Given the new flight choices I'm not sure DL would be my choice now.

The one thing I'll say about international flights from ATL is, other than to the Caribbean and Central America, redeyes from the West Coast are poorly timed to connect to them. Europe largely departs between 3pm-ish and 9pm-ish, and most of South America and JNB depart around 7pm. This would make for en extremely long day in ATL, and two consecutive redeyes. While many European cities work well connecting westbound back to FAT, most of South America plus JNB also arrive early AM into ATL, making for a long day that direction too. Because of that, I'm guessing that there won't be a ton of international connections (again, aside from Central America and the Caribbean) through ATL if it's a redeye schedule (which seems the most likely).

I am not sure FAT-ATL-FAT would necessarily be a redeye both ways or even one-way. That impacts domestic connections. A redeye schedule would then be up against the current daytime schedules to say an Orlando.

Well, look at other pacific coast cities where Delta introduced new ATL service. Oakland was a redeye (don't think it's operating right now). Reno is currently an 8am, but was a redeye for most of its history and is going back to a redeye later this year. Spokane is currently a noon departure but is going to a redeye after the summer. A redeye FAT-ATL seems likely.

Didn't mean to imply ATL-FAT would be a redeye (not even sure that's possible). Would be a 6pm-ish departure from ATL and then a 10pm-ish departure from FAT.

As for connections to Orlando (or anywhere else on the East Coast)...depends on whether you want to spend an "entire day" (considering the 3 hour time change) traveling, or go overnight. Currently, during the day, to MCO, you can leave at 5:30am and arrive at 3:30pm (fastest on United), 6:20am to 4:07pm (fastest on American that isn't a :40 connection), or leave at 11am and arrive at 10:40pm (fastest on Southwest). With a redeye, you could leave FAT at 10:30pm and arrive in MCO at 8:49am (using SMF as an example). By comparison, AA's redeye is 12:56am to 11:09am.

flyfresno · Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:16 am

Looks like AM is going daily to GDL. Thought they couldn't add any more flying to the US, but maybe this doesn't count as adding?

whatusaid · Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:30 am

Wneast wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
Tan Flyr wrote:
The AA and UA service to ORD certainly covers many connections to the whole upper mid-west/Great Lakes and New England fairly well. IF DL wanted to come in and make a mainline splash..it really should be to ATL. That would not only give a second choice to many SE cites (most covered by AA thru DFW), but perhaps more importantly a single connection to second tier cities in the SE.

IMHO, that mainline flight could add more organic growth..but for now would have to be a red-eye east bound. (late afternoon/ early evening departure Westbound.)

Fresno is the largest or second largest US metro area without ATL nonstops. Given the bump in passengers this year we should be closer to DL considering adding that route.

FAT-ATL would give DL one connection service to not just the southeast but also the entire east coast and many international. Service to that hub from FAT could compete even better with ORD and DFW connections.

I used DL for a pre-COVID international flight but the 2 connecting flights to reach ATL almost pushed me to other options. Given the new flight choices I'm not sure DL would be my choice now.

What other routes are underserved from FAT ?

After all of the pent up demand passes, and it will, ATL makes sense. While CLT could also help close the gap, I’d like to think in reverse mode, meaning, would DL’s SE strength offset the weaker DL FF base at FAT? Granted, DL has stepped it up at FAT, but LAX may only exist due to terminal construction at LAX. SLC remains a mix of 700’s and 175’s and traditionally doesn’t see a LF or yield anywhere near DEN. Unless they’d put a 220 on ATL, the next step up might be tough to fill and at a profit.

FATFlyer · Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:39 am

flyfresno wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

The one thing I'll say about international flights from ATL is, other than to the Caribbean and Central America, redeyes from the West Coast are poorly timed to connect to them. Europe largely departs between 3pm-ish and 9pm-ish, and most of South America and JNB depart around 7pm. This would make for en extremely long day in ATL, and two consecutive redeyes. While many European cities work well connecting westbound back to FAT, most of South America plus JNB also arrive early AM into ATL, making for a long day that direction too. Because of that, I'm guessing that there won't be a ton of international connections (again, aside from Central America and the Caribbean) through ATL if it's a redeye schedule (which seems the most likely).

I am not sure FAT-ATL-FAT would necessarily be a redeye both ways or even one-way. That impacts domestic connections. A redeye schedule would then be up against the current daytime schedules to say an Orlando.

Well, look at other pacific coast cities where Delta introduced new ATL service. Oakland was a redeye (don't think it's operating right now). Reno is currently an 8am, but was a redeye for most of its history and is going back to a redeye later this year. Spokane is currently a noon departure but is going to a redeye after the summer. A redeye FAT-ATL seems likely.

Didn't mean to imply ATL-FAT would be a redeye (not even sure that's possible). Would be a 6pm-ish departure from ATL and then a 10pm-ish departure from FAT.

As for connections to Orlando (or anywhere else on the East Coast)...depends on whether you want to spend an "entire day" (considering the 3 hour time change) traveling, or go overnight. Currently, during the day, to MCO, you can leave at 5:30am and arrive at 3:30pm (fastest on United), 6:20am to 4:07pm (fastest on American that isn't a :40 connection), or leave at 11am and arrive at 10:40pm (fastest on Southwest). With a redeye, you could leave FAT at 10:30pm and arrive in MCO at 8:49am (using SMF as an example). By comparison, AA's redeye is 12:56am to 11:09am.

My old weekly business travel was daytime flights as much as possible even for the east. Nights were my personal time at hotel/home and I needed to be fresh for morning meetings. Late flights/redeyes usually meant a First seat to allow me to sleep well and the beancounters always hated them on my expense reports.

Wneast · Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:52 am

Thoughts on how about AS potentially adding SJD at least then daily to FAT ?

FATFlyer · Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:52 am

The airport has been making the local media rounds the last few days. TV, radio, and print. Mainly talking about crowds, expansion, and general travel tips.

The Fresno Bee and the Fresno Business Journal both posted articles tonight about TSA installing new CT scanners for carryons and adding more staff to handle the increase in passengers.

But a couple of other comments to note in the articles.

Fresno Bee article includes:
"Prohibited items slow the screening process, especially during peak hours when the number of departing passengers can exceed the capacity of the security checkpoint. That’s 10 a.m. to noon, but also 5 a.m. to 8 a.m. and after 9 p.m., when several large international flights depart."

"Currently, the airport is operating at 120% of 2019 levels, a number that is expected to increase as the summer continues. It ranks No. 11 in the country and leads the Pacific region in air travel recovery following the pandemic. It ranks second in California in several categories, including seat capacity increases."
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article252434233.html

The Fresno Business Journal article notes:
"According to a TSA press release, passenger screening volumes at FAT are currently more than 120% of 2019—meaning the airport has recovered its travel volume rates by 100%, with a 20% increase since June 2019."

"“The Fresno airport is the second-fastest growing airport in California in terms of small-hub airports, and seen faster growth in terms of seat capacity. From June through August of 2021, we are seeing an over-32% increase in seat capacity as compared with June through August of 2019,” Calderon said."

"The busiest times at the TSA security checkpoint at FAT are 5 a.m. to 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. to 1 p.m.. The busiest days to travel are Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday."
https://thebusinessjournal.com/fresno-airport-anticipates-traveler-numbers-to-exceed-2019-levels/

flyfresno · Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:41 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
The Fresno Business Journal article notes:
"According to a TSA press release, passenger screening volumes at FAT are currently more than 120% of 2019—meaning the airport has recovered its travel volume rates by 100%, with a 20% increase since June 2019."

Posted this exact quote above ^^^

flyfresno · Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:05 pm

whatusaid wrote:
Wneast wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:

Fresno is the largest or second largest US metro area without ATL nonstops. Given the bump in passengers this year we should be closer to DL considering adding that route.

FAT-ATL would give DL one connection service to not just the southeast but also the entire east coast and many international. Service to that hub from FAT could compete even better with ORD and DFW connections.

I used DL for a pre-COVID international flight but the 2 connecting flights to reach ATL almost pushed me to other options. Given the new flight choices I'm not sure DL would be my choice now.

What other routes are underserved from FAT ?

After all of the pent up demand passes, and it will, ATL makes sense. While CLT could also help close the gap, I’d like to think in reverse mode, meaning, would DL’s SE strength offset the weaker DL FF base at FAT? Granted, DL has stepped it up at FAT, but LAX may only exist due to terminal construction at LAX. SLC remains a mix of 700’s and 175’s and traditionally doesn’t see a LF or yield anywhere near DEN. Unless they’d put a 220 on ATL, the next step up might be tough to fill and at a profit.

You make some great points here.

The comment about LAX is a good one, and it will be interesting to see whether it sticks around after T3 is done (which is nearly 2 years away, although some phases open earlier).

I can't help but look at LGB and see how it's been basically stuck with just SLC (although there was DL ER7 service to LAS for a bit). DL could follow that model too and upguage SLC before adding ATL/MSP. That would certainly fall in line with the rumor of September. LGB is obviously a different dynamic than FAT with slots, curfews, and a large DL hub a couple dozen miles up the 405. Also, OAK got and then lost ATL...not sure if/when that's coming back.

How are you estimating yields to SLC vs DEN? I can't help but notice how DL offers around 50 first class seats to SLC (not to mention all the economy plus), and UA has potentially never offered that many to DEN. Obviously the numbers are skewed right now with the pandemic taking a lot of business travel away, but going back to 2019, was UA/DEN beating DL/SLC for yield? That just seems strange considering DEN was mostly CR2s (with some mainline or E175s thrown in for parts of it) and DL was all premium cabin aircraft.

Based on your point about so much required lift to ATL and not many FFs, we might see daily SEA on an E175 first. It's a proven market unlike ATL (based on AS offering so many seats, not necessarily the once per week service DL is offering for the summer). That route would offer easier access to many PNW cities, Alaska, and Asia, and might help draw more FFs and develop the market enough that MSP/ATL would make sense.

WN732 · Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:20 pm

flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:
Wneast wrote:
What other routes are underserved from FAT ?

After all of the pent up demand passes, and it will, ATL makes sense. While CLT could also help close the gap, I’d like to think in reverse mode, meaning, would DL’s SE strength offset the weaker DL FF base at FAT? Granted, DL has stepped it up at FAT, but LAX may only exist due to terminal construction at LAX. SLC remains a mix of 700’s and 175’s and traditionally doesn’t see a LF or yield anywhere near DEN. Unless they’d put a 220 on ATL, the next step up might be tough to fill and at a profit.

You make some great points here.

The comment about LAX is a good one, and it will be interesting to see whether it sticks around after T3 is done (which is nearly 2 years away, although some phases open earlier).

I can't help but look at LGB and see how it's been basically stuck with just SLC (although there was DL ER7 service to LAS for a bit). DL could follow that model too and upguage SLC before adding ATL/MSP. That would certainly fall in line with the rumor of September. LGB is obviously a different dynamic than FAT with slots, curfews, and a large DL hub a couple dozen miles up the 405. Also, OAK got and then lost ATL...not sure if/when that's coming back.

How are you estimating yields to SLC vs DEN? I can't help but notice how DL offers around 50 first class seats to SLC (not to mention all the economy plus), and UA has potentially never offered that many to DEN. Obviously the numbers are skewed right now with the pandemic taking a lot of business travel away, but going back to 2019, was UA/DEN beating DL/SLC for yield? That just seems strange considering DEN was mostly CR2s (with some mainline or E175s thrown in for parts of it) and DL was all premium cabin aircraft.

Based on your point about so much required lift to ATL and not many FFs, we might see daily SEA on an E175 first. It's a proven market unlike ATL (based on AS offering so many seats, not necessarily the once per week service DL is offering for the summer). That route would offer easier access to many PNW cities, Alaska, and Asia, and might help draw more FFs and develop the market enough that MSP/ATL would make sense.

It would really make sense for FAT to get SEA daily on DL. A lot of the produce companies in Fresno sell to Asia, especially Japan. SEA would be a great alternative to LAX.

flyfresno · Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:26 pm

WN732 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
whatusaid wrote:

After all of the pent up demand passes, and it will, ATL makes sense. While CLT could also help close the gap, I’d like to think in reverse mode, meaning, would DL’s SE strength offset the weaker DL FF base at FAT? Granted, DL has stepped it up at FAT, but LAX may only exist due to terminal construction at LAX. SLC remains a mix of 700’s and 175’s and traditionally doesn’t see a LF or yield anywhere near DEN. Unless they’d put a 220 on ATL, the next step up might be tough to fill and at a profit.

You make some great points here.

The comment about LAX is a good one, and it will be interesting to see whether it sticks around after T3 is done (which is nearly 2 years away, although some phases open earlier).

I can't help but look at LGB and see how it's been basically stuck with just SLC (although there was DL ER7 service to LAS for a bit). DL could follow that model too and upguage SLC before adding ATL/MSP. That would certainly fall in line with the rumor of September. LGB is obviously a different dynamic than FAT with slots, curfews, and a large DL hub a couple dozen miles up the 405. Also, OAK got and then lost ATL...not sure if/when that's coming back.

How are you estimating yields to SLC vs DEN? I can't help but notice how DL offers around 50 first class seats to SLC (not to mention all the economy plus), and UA has potentially never offered that many to DEN. Obviously the numbers are skewed right now with the pandemic taking a lot of business travel away, but going back to 2019, was UA/DEN beating DL/SLC for yield? That just seems strange considering DEN was mostly CR2s (with some mainline or E175s thrown in for parts of it) and DL was all premium cabin aircraft.

Based on your point about so much required lift to ATL and not many FFs, we might see daily SEA on an E175 first. It's a proven market unlike ATL (based on AS offering so many seats, not necessarily the once per week service DL is offering for the summer). That route would offer easier access to many PNW cities, Alaska, and Asia, and might help draw more FFs and develop the market enough that MSP/ATL would make sense.

It would really make sense for FAT to get SEA daily on DL. A lot of the produce companies in Fresno sell to Asia, especially Japan. SEA would be a great alternative to LAX.

There was a daily flight on the schedule for this summer, AM departure from FAT and PM from SEA, but then it disappeared after a couple of weeks. We were speculating whether (a) it was there for MX purposes for OO, and/or (b) it went away because there was no gate space to handle the proposed departure/arrival times.

FlyLEN2019 · Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:07 pm

Wneast wrote:
Thoughts on how about AS potentially adding SJD at least then daily to FAT ?

I personally doubt this will happen anytime soon, as there is no daytime FIS shift at FAT, the customs facilities really aren’t very good, and the airport is already congested as it is.

AirportEngineer · Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:08 pm

Is there a fuel shortage at FAT today? Or a supply issue? It looks like several airlines are routing via SFO, SJC, BFL, and LAS and then onward to their destinations.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL2411/history/20210630/1921Z/KFAT/KSFO

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL1770/history/20210630/1910Z/KFAT/KSJC

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/FFT494/history/20210630/2221Z/KFAT/KLAS

flyfresno · Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:35 pm

AirportEngineer wrote:
Is there a fuel shortage at FAT today? Or a supply issue? It looks like several airlines are routing via SFO, SJC, BFL, and LAS and then onward to their destinations.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL2411/history/20210630/1921Z/KFAT/KSFO

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL1770/history/20210630/1910Z/KFAT/KSJC

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/FFT494/history/20210630/2221Z/KFAT/KLAS

Saw that. Lack of trucks (staffing?) apparently...

Surprised to see AA headed to the bay rather than SMF or LAS. Might be avoiding LAS because of airspace and thunderstorms, but SMF is way more direct and less busy than the Bay.

Tan Flyr · Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:30 pm

flyfresno wrote:
AirportEngineer wrote:
Is there a fuel shortage at FAT today? Or a supply issue? It looks like several airlines are routing via SFO, SJC, BFL, and LAS and then onward to their destinations.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL2411/history/20210630/1921Z/KFAT/KSFO

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL1770/history/20210630/1910Z/KFAT/KSJC

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/FFT494/history/20210630/2221Z/KFAT/KLAS

Saw that. Lack of trucks (staffing?) apparently...

Surprised to see AA headed to the bay rather than SMF or LAS. Might be avoiding LAS because of airspace and thunderstorms, but SMF is way more direct and less busy than the Bay.

I was just thinking of this while on the 99 the other day..every fuel transport company had ads on the back of their trucks almost begging for drivers. My friend at our Visalia Costco Fuel island told me that they had to change delivery companies just to get all the scheduled deliveries of gasoline and diesel . KAG west is very short staffed.

This is a problem all over the transportation sector..not just Fresno or fuel delivery semi's..it is going to take time to recruit, train and get new drivers behind the wheel.

In the meantime, if this persists as a problem, why can't the airlines "tanker in" some extra fuel from the hubs, lessening the amount they have to take on here for the return trips? Yes, I know all about the weight/ cost equation, but we are not talking trans-continental or anything..maybe just enough that their needs are reduced by 25% until the situation improves. Does this make a case for additional storage of fuel at FAT also?

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