Welcome to the the Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread 2021. Please continue to post your news and your discussion here.

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The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Has anyone heard more about the B6 expansion in the regional New England market?

what B6 expansion? Like new airports or new routes?

Does anyone think B6 will finally come to MHT, since it seems as if they are looking to expand in the northeast, and there is added gate space there since Delta left the airport?

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

what B6 expansion? Like new airports or new routes?

Someone said that there was a regional deal in the works from B6 for New England

With DL Leaving MHT B6 Might come in but I'm still not sure. I think the earliest you could see DL Back in MHT is in 5 to 6 years.

I guess MHT makes sense if the airport gives them a deal. JetBlue is a well established and known brand in both BOS and BTV. Would help the people in the middle who drive to them. The only airport I can really see being added in New England.

HVN airport was basically Yale University shuttle for people who didn't like travelling all the way to NYC for flights. We will see those students back on metro North/Amtrak now. Newark airport station on Amtrak is pretty convenient and easy. With school so remote it only made sense the airports demand totally dried up. I could see AA returning if they get a good deal and offer. I think we will see airlines do this more in the future. Leave on purpose or threaten too for a good offer to come back. AA knows demand to that airport is dead for a while

madg wrote:

With DL Leaving MHT B6 Might come in but I'm still not sure. I think the earliest you could see DL Back in MHT is in 5 to 6 years.

Even before covid, MHT passenger numbers declined year-over-year for 14 consecutive years. DOT airfare reports didn't show a big premium in 2019. There isn't much reason for B6 to dilute its BOS franchise and add MHT.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I guess MHT makes sense if the airport gives them a deal. JetBlue is a well established and known brand in both BOS and BTV. Would help the people in the middle who drive to them. The only airport I can really see being added in New England.

Help those people, yes, but at what cost to B6? I think you'd risk cannibalising BTV and to a lesser extent BOS... Obviously BOS is much less at risk, but it might chip away at the margins. BTV, though--different story. B6 has been struggling in BTV since the early 2010s. First it was 4x daily to 3x daily, then they lost the 320s... They tried MCO direct and that was short lived... Even the B6 staff in BTV (before they were unceremoniously outsourced) were surprised they were still flying... So I think having MHT down the road would do BTV no favours. And perhaps B6 is ok with that... But I just don't see a huge benefit to anyone.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

HVN airport was basically Yale University shuttle for people who didn't like travelling all the way to NYC for flights. We will see those students back on metro North/Amtrak now. Newark airport station on Amtrak is pretty convenient and easy. With school so remote it only made sense the airports demand totally dried up. I could see AA returning if they get a good deal and offer. I think we will see airlines do this more in the future. Leave on purpose or threaten too for a good offer to come back. AA knows demand to that airport is dead for a while

Before the virus for 3 years running, loads were increasing and starting out with CRJ-200's to CRJ-700's to E-175's to PHL. In July AA announced two daily flights to CLT replacing PHL. Much better hub to connect through. Now AA is offering one flight to PHL with times that just don't work especially the HVN-PHL flight. It arrives PHL after 7PM and on Tuesday and Wednesday in January and part of February, there are no connections except for overnighting in PHL. This will be a ferry flight, it seems AA is planning to fail at HVN.
I have used HVN for years and the Yale bit has been used for years. All types of travelers have used HVN and there is a large catchment area surrounding the airport. For years the runway was the main reason for low growth but with the advent of next-gen RJ's, the runway works quite well for several models. Trains are fine for New York and Boston, but no one uses long train trips anymore. The virus has dealt all airports a serious blow, but HVN with one airline was an easy target. Allegiant has said several times they want to come to HVN.
UA now with the CRJ-550 would be a good fit for ORD flights. Back in the 90's when UA had four daily 737 flights to ORD, a flight I was on from ORD to HVN was oversold.
The virus is the main issue with HVN, not the market.

madg wrote:

With DL Leaving MHT B6 Might come in but I'm still not sure. I think the earliest you could see DL Back in MHT is in 5 to 6 years.

I can’t see delta back, period. As it was, they only had 3x MHT-DTW, 1x MHT-ATL and 1x MHT-LGA, a far cry from what they used to have. But I could see AA taking over the MHT-LGA route, since they have a hub there. Sad to see this happening to the airport.

MHT was on a downward spin before covid. We all know it doesn't fit the normal covid issues discussed all over a. Net

I agree with everyone not sure B6 gains that much serving MHT, I would just say maybe and only if the airport throws money their way. They have planes

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

MHT was on a downward spin before covid. We all know it doesn't fit the normal covid issues discussed all over a. Net

I agree with everyone not sure B6 gains that much serving MHT, I would just say maybe and only if the airport throws money their way. They have planes

WN re-adding MHT-DEN/BNA nonstop service are possibilities with DEN and BNA being two of the top destinations traveled to from MHT that aren't currently served nonstop from MHT. I had also previously mentioned that WN was able to make nonstop service to DEN work from both MHT and PVD after adding BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to dropping MHT/PVD-BOS nonstop service.

I don’t think DL will return to MHT again, they were already on their way out even before Covid. That being said I do think there is a market at MHT. Breeze or F9 would probably do well with a couple flights to Florida. I can see AA picking up MHT-LGA like they did with ORD after UA dropped it.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

MHT was on a downward spin before covid. We all know it doesn't fit the normal covid issues discussed all over a. Net

I agree with everyone not sure B6 gains that much serving MHT, I would just say maybe and only if the airport throws money their way. They have planes

The biggest thing that hurts MHT is that a large part of their population base happens to be south of them - the Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts is pretty strong in terms of population (think the I-495 stretch from Haverhill down through Westford). Ever since all the construction in and around Boston finished in the mid-2000s (and the concurrent B6 ramp up), it's made it just as easy to get to Logan as it is to get to Manchester; even a place like Salem, NH is only another 10 minutes more to BOS than it is to MHT.

A lot of these people in the late 1990s/early 2000s would choose MHT; WN ran a good operation, fares were much cheaper than BOS (which had minimal LCC competition before B6) and you didn't have to deal with the Big Dig and construction at BOS itself (Terminal A was being rebuilt during the early 2000s). Now flip the script - you have a LCC having a hub at BOS which has brought fares down a ton, a much larger LCC presence otherwise too (NK, WN, etc.) and the roads aren't as bad. It's no reason people in this region (which is about 600k people) are going back to BOS. Add in Nashua, Salem and Windham (which would naturally go to MHT but it's less than 15 minutes more to go to BOS) and that's another 125k people.

Once you get north of MHT, there's really not a whole lot of people. Manchester itself is a little over 100k people and then it drops fast (Concord is 45k, and then it drops real quick from there). It's enough for a small regional operation - sustain Southwest to BWI, American feeding DCA/CLT/PHL hubs and then the normal vacation crowd to Florida, but that's about it. Unlike other airports in Northern New England, there's nothing really that draws people to that airport - for skiing, Vermont and Maine offer much superior offerings, and in the summer, PWM is a rather large destination in and of itself being on the Atlantic.

End of the day, I can see DL returning to MHT in maybe 2-3 years; it would be RJs to DTW if/when they come back. Slots and parking spaces are at too much of a premium at the New York airports (yes, I know EWR doesn't have slots anymore, but UA is limited to a finite amount of flights based off their gates) that Delta and United aren't going to be coming back into those markets. The best bet is to hope for something like what ORH got pre-COVID - get JetBlue in there flying to Florida and hope for a token JFK flight or two.

737Jason wrote:

madg wrote:

With DL Leaving MHT B6 Might come in but I'm still not sure. I think the earliest you could see DL Back in MHT is in 5 to 6 years.

I can’t see delta back, period. As it was, they only had 3x MHT-DTW, 1x MHT-ATL and 1x MHT-LGA, a far cry from what they used to have. But I could see AA taking over the MHT-LGA route, since they have a hub there. Sad to see this happening to the airport.

Sad but true.

MHT-LGA-RDU was a pretty popular flight with me and my high tech co-workers during the last three decades or so, either for business or for pleasure since some of my ex co workers and college friends ended up working in the RDU area. Other than that, I can't think I've ever done MHT-ATL or MHT-DTW but did do MHT-MSP back in the red tail days.

A lot of business stuff had already been gravitating towards video teleconferencing, and covid has really accelerated that trend with it being the new norm.

Companies have invested in the tools and the training for videoconferencing on a big scale and there will be a lot of push back on expensive business trips that used to be routine pre-covid.

This means we'll see outposts like MHT, HVN, et al that could kind of get by now find themselves with nice facilities that they can't fill.

Speaking of DL... it looks like they are scheduled to resume PVD service (3X ATL and 3X DTW) on March 2. Any idea if that will hold? Do you think DL will return to PVD?

I'd be surprised to see WN add DEN. The airport has so little competition WN fans will fly them anyway. They can connect passengers thru other cities closer to most cities. It would be a good sign that they are committed but I don't see it happening. MHT might be happy and lucky to just keep it's existing WN service, don't rock the boat

PVDCMHOZ wrote:

Speaking of DL... it looks like they are scheduled to resume PVD service (3X ATL and 3X DTW) on March 2. Any idea if that will hold? Do you think DL will return to PVD?

Absolutely. ATL is coming back as 3x 738 and DTW is 1x 320, 2x CR9 which seems about right to me.

I was honestly surprised that PVD was totally dropped by Delta. Sure, BOS is an hour away, but long-term Providence is large enough to hold its own. The Providence MSA itself is over 1.6 million people, and then you can easily extend that more into the South Shore and Central Massachusetts. Similar to MHT and the Merrimack Valley, I-495 is really the equal point between PVD and BOS, but then you add in cities like New Bedford and Fall River and those will easily lean more towards PVD. In Central Mass, 146 provides an easy option to PVD and Worcester is also right on that equal time split between BOS and PVD.

If MHT were to gain a new airline in the next 3 to 4 years most likely be F9,NK or G4 with a few flights per week to a couple destinations. I could see MHT-FLL, MHT-RSW given a try if it were F9 or NK. I doubt it but G4 trying MHT-LAS 3x might be possible sometime in the future.
For existing carriers I would like to WN resume MHT-DEN and consider resuming MHT-BNA or trying MHT-STL. AA a long shot would be a RJ MHT-MIA connecting with Caribbean Central and South American flights. MHT-DFW sat only summer service perhaps when vacation travel picks up.

the fact that DL kept trying to make PVD work when outright suspending others says a lot. They had a lot of staffing and fleet issues this fall (see holiday operational meltdowns), all going into the slowest season is how it ultimately ended up where it did.

I highly doubt that DL will fly whats published for March, assuming they start in March. My guess is spring will look something like 1-2x ATL mainline and 2x DTW on CR9

well, DL hasn't done their large March cuts yet. You probably want to take a little bit to see what they will actually bring back in March.

georgiabill wrote:

If MHT were to gain a new airline in the next 3 to 4 years most likely be F9,NK or G4 with a few flights per week to a couple destinations. I could see MHT-FLL, MHT-RSW given a try if it were F9 or NK. I doubt it but G4 trying MHT-LAS 3x might be possible sometime in the future.
For existing carriers I would like to WN resume MHT-DEN and consider resuming MHT-BNA or trying MHT-STL. AA a long shot would be a RJ MHT-MIA connecting with Caribbean Central and South American flights. MHT-DFW sat only summer service perhaps when vacation travel picks up.

G4 is already at PSM, like 30 minutes from MHT. They will be staying there. I could see them adding PSM-LAS in the future...

tphuang wrote:

well, DL hasn't done their large March cuts yet. You probably want to take a little bit to see what they will actually bring back in March.

Which is what makes me concerned about DL's eventual PVD return. First their return was scheduled for last September, then it was pushed to October, then December, and now out to March. The northeast continues to lag the rest of the country with any sort of traffic rebound, so we'll see if March holds. I'm not sure there's enough market available yet at PVD to make it worth their dime, but I'll second RL757PVD's potential schedule for when they indeed come back.

Cboyle wrote:

georgiabill wrote:

If MHT were to gain a new airline in the next 3 to 4 years most likely be F9,NK or G4 with a few flights per week to a couple destinations. I could see MHT-FLL, MHT-RSW given a try if it were F9 or NK. I doubt it but G4 trying MHT-LAS 3x might be possible sometime in the future.
For existing carriers I would like to WN resume MHT-DEN and consider resuming MHT-BNA or trying MHT-STL. AA a long shot would be a RJ MHT-MIA connecting with Caribbean Central and South American flights. MHT-DFW sat only summer service perhaps when vacation travel picks up.

G4 is already at PSM, like 30 minutes from MHT. They will be staying there. I could see them adding PSM-LAS in the future...

And F9 and NK are more focused on top tier airports. As long as they're at BOS I don't see them at MHT.

PVD523 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

well, DL hasn't done their large March cuts yet. You probably want to take a little bit to see what they will actually bring back in March.

Which is what makes me concerned about DL's eventual PVD return. First their return was scheduled for last September, then it was pushed to October, then December, and now out to March. The northeast continues to lag the rest of the country with any sort of traffic rebound, so we'll see if March holds. I'm not sure there's enough market available yet at PVD to make it worth their dime, but I'll second RL757PVD's potential schedule for when they indeed come back.

The repeated effort to make it work (mid freefall) speaks of the market compared to others like MHT.

I wouldn't be surprised if March slipped, but I would also be surprised if they were not flying by June. If I was a betting person, I'd go with 4/1

PVDCMHOZ wrote:

Speaking of DL... it looks like they are scheduled to resume PVD service (3X ATL and 3X DTW) on March 2. Any idea if that will hold? Do you think DL will return to PVD?

I'm not trying to be a killjoy. However, the March schedule is not finalized. I think DL will resume PVD in March but it's probably going to be one flight a day to ATL like PWM has. .

What happened to Cape Air at PWM? Was service suspended, or dropped altogether?

Either way, not surprisingly, this service was short lived. I didn’t really think there was going to be enough demand to support their PWM-BOS flights when they began. Although, I was hopeful with the JetBlue codeshare that these flight might hang on. Pretty sure nobody was flying PWM-BOS, and most folks on the flights were connecting to JetBlue or other Cape Air flights.

Twenty years ago, between BEX and US Express, there were probably more daily PWM-BOS flights than anything else at PWM. And regional travel within New England and upstate New York use to be practical. (Say, if you wanted to fly PWM-PQI. Or PWM-ALB with a BOS connection) With the advent of RJs to more distant hubs, I think that killed need for PWM-BOS service, and subsequent regional connections via BOS? Honestly, I was kind of surprised when Cape Air announced service last year. Especially during the pandemic.

I have enjoyed seeing the DL 737-900 and AA 737-800’s at PWM. Both new types for each respective carrier. Between those two, as well as Southwest, it’s been years since there’s been three 737’s RONing at the gates at night. Plus, that’s the largest aircraft DL has flown into PWM in over twenty years. Last DL 757 was around 1995-97ish And last 727 was 1999. It was almost exclusively MD-80s until the last couple years. UA sent in an Airbus from IAD the other night, too. Still not like the old days of twenty years ago when there would be up to ten mainline jets at the gates in the morning.

deltairlines wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

MHT was on a downward spin before covid. We all know it doesn't fit the normal covid issues discussed all over a. Net

I agree with everyone not sure B6 gains that much serving MHT, I would just say maybe and only if the airport throws money their way. They have planes

The biggest thing that hurts MHT is that a large part of their population base happens to be south of them - the Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts is pretty strong in terms of population (think the I-495 stretch from Haverhill down through Westford). Ever since all the construction in and around Boston finished in the mid-2000s (and the concurrent B6 ramp up), it's made it just as easy to get to Logan as it is to get to Manchester; even a place like Salem, NH is only another 10 minutes more to BOS than it is to MHT.

A lot of these people in the late 1990s/early 2000s would choose MHT; WN ran a good operation, fares were much cheaper than BOS (which had minimal LCC competition before B6) and you didn't have to deal with the Big Dig and construction at BOS itself (Terminal A was being rebuilt during the early 2000s). Now flip the script - you have a LCC having a hub at BOS which has brought fares down a ton, a much larger LCC presence otherwise too (NK, WN, etc.) and the roads aren't as bad. It's no reason people in this region (which is about 600k people) are going back to BOS. Add in Nashua, Salem and Windham (which would naturally go to MHT but it's less than 15 minutes more to go to BOS) and that's another 125k people.
.

When PWM airfares dropped due to airlines such as Air Tran/ Southwest, JetBlue, and now Frontier and seasonal Sun Country , lots of leisure travelers from Southern Maine and the Portland area who use to go to MHT and BOS for cheaper flights, or to get on Southwest, started using their local airport at PWM. Our passenger numbers have climbed year over year (except 2020) while MHTs drop. It’s not just people north of Boston abandoning MHT for BOS that contribute to lower passenger numbers there. PWM has taken a chunk of MHT travelers, too.

Living close to PWM, I never used MHT back in the day, but it’s been years and years since I’ve gone to BOS to catch a flight. It’s usually just as cheap to fly out of PWM. Or sometimes less after factoring in ground transportation to BOS. Heck, if going west, I can be halfway across the country and changing planes by the time it would have taken me to get to BOS on the bus, check-in, go through long TSA lines and then get on the plane.

Not sure why some people still go down there, unless they’re the type that prefers a non-stop flight because it’s “quicker” but they don’t factor in three hours on the bus or car to BOS.

georgiabill wrote:

For existing carriers I would like to WN resume MHT-DEN and consider resuming MHT-BNA or trying MHT-STL.

There's no big MHT-catchment demand to STL or BNA - prospective flights would just exist for connections to other places, and, as others have acknowledged, a lot of the MHT catchment can drive fifteen minutes farther to BOS and get non-stops (and fare competition and frequency on a lot of those non-stops).

The Logan 2000 projects of the late 90s (2000 more days of construction!) in conjunction with the Big Dig really did improve access to BOS, changing the relative attractiveness of MHT for a lot of customers. It just IS. Through 2019 MHT passenger numbers had fallen by ~60% since 2005 while PWM's had grown by 50%. In 2005, MHT was nearly 3x the size of PWM and now PWM is the larger. For a regional airport, being within 1-1.5 hours of one of the country's biggest O&D airports is tough. It's not just MHT (or PVD): ask FNT, TOL, RST (and they've got the freakin' Mayo Clinic!) or Salem, OR.

Speaking of airfares, I was interested in WN's $29 sale and I was curious to see where it would be offered and did a little poking around. I found some strange things for the NE airports.
For reference, BOS-BWI has the $24 sale and an Anytime price of $324 offered during the upcoming Tuesdays that I checked. On the same dates, PVD-BWI was $39 and $192, MHT-BWI was $29 and $324, PWM-BWI was $39 and $181, and BDL-BWI was $56 and $192. So BOS and MHT have the best sale deals, but have the highest Anytime fares by a lot. PWM appears to have the best BWI fares overall and I can't figure out why BDL didn't get the $29 sale, or at least $39.

If these prices reflect larger patterns, PWM is certainly being low fare stimulated compared to MHT to fill the entire plane. MHT needs sales since the average fares are getting so high. An Anytime WN fare for MHT-BWI is about $650, or about what the market charged when WN first entered the market.

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

What happened to Cape Air at PWM? Was service suspended, or dropped altogether?

Either way, not surprisingly, this service was short lived. I didn’t really think there was going to be enough demand to support their PWM-BOS flights when they began. Although, I was hopeful with the JetBlue codeshare that these flight might hang on. Pretty sure nobody was flying PWM-BOS, and most folks on the flights were connecting to JetBlue or other Cape Air flights.

Twenty years ago, between BEX and US Express, there were probably more daily PWM-BOS flights than anything else at PWM. And regional travel within New England and upstate New York use to be practical. (Say, if you wanted to fly PWM-PQI. Or PWM-ALB with a BOS connection) With the advent of RJs to more distant hubs, I think that killed need for PWM-BOS service, and subsequent regional connections via BOS? Honestly, I was kind of surprised when Cape Air announced service last year. Especially during the pandemic.

I have enjoyed seeing the DL 737-900 and AA 737-800’s at PWM. Both new types for each respective carrier. Between those two, as well as Southwest, it’s been years since there’s been three 737’s RONing at the gates at night. Plus, that’s the largest aircraft DL has flown into PWM in over twenty years. Last DL 757 was around 1995-97ish And last 727 was 1999. It was almost exclusively MD-80s until the last couple years. UA sent in an Airbus from IAD the other night, too. Still not like the old days of twenty years ago when there would be up to ten mainline jets at the gates in the morning.

Cape Air appears to have gone seasonal. PWM-BOS resumption date is June 4.

On the PVD front, there was a PointsGuy article a couple of days ago that discussed Amazon Air. He included a map that showed distribution centers and airports served. I noted that PVD was marked as a future station. Anyone know anything about this? I don't know if he made his own map or got it from Amazon, so I can't speak to the accuracy (nor can I find the article now to link). BDL is a fairly large Amazon Air airport, so I'm a little surprised that they would do another one so close, especially one that they once served and left.

airlineworker wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

HVN airport was basically Yale University shuttle for people who didn't like travelling all the way to NYC for flights. We will see those students back on metro North/Amtrak now. Newark airport station on Amtrak is pretty convenient and easy. With school so remote it only made sense the airports demand totally dried up. I could see AA returning if they get a good deal and offer. I think we will see airlines do this more in the future. Leave on purpose or threaten too for a good offer to come back. AA knows demand to that airport is dead for a while

Before the virus for 3 years running, loads were increasing and starting out with CRJ-200's to CRJ-700's to E-175's to PHL. In July AA announced two daily flights to CLT replacing PHL. Much better hub to connect through. Now AA is offering one flight to PHL with times that just don't work especially the HVN-PHL flight. It arrives PHL after 7PM and on Tuesday and Wednesday in January and part of February, there are no connections except for overnighting in PHL. This will be a ferry flight, it seems AA is planning to fail at HVN.
I have used HVN for years and the Yale bit has been used for years. All types of travelers have used HVN and there is a large catchment area surrounding the airport. For years the runway was the main reason for low growth but with the advent of next-gen RJ's, the runway works quite well for several models. Trains are fine for New York and Boston, but no one uses long train trips anymore. The virus has dealt all airports a serious blow, but HVN with one airline was an easy target. Allegiant has said several times they want to come to HVN.
UA now with the CRJ-550 would be a good fit for ORD flights. Back in the 90's when UA had four daily 737 flights to ORD, a flight I was on from ORD to HVN was oversold.
The virus is the main issue with HVN, not the market.

I am confident we will see one of the new ULCCs in HVN.

RL757PVD wrote:

PVD523 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

well, DL hasn't done their large March cuts yet. You probably want to take a little bit to see what they will actually bring back in March.

Which is what makes me concerned about DL's eventual PVD return. First their return was scheduled for last September, then it was pushed to October, then December, and now out to March. The northeast continues to lag the rest of the country with any sort of traffic rebound, so we'll see if March holds. I'm not sure there's enough market available yet at PVD to make it worth their dime, but I'll second RL757PVD's potential schedule for when they indeed come back.

The repeated effort to make it work (mid freefall) speaks of the market compared to others like MHT.

I wouldn't be surprised if March slipped, but I would also be surprised if they were not flying by June. If I was a betting person, I'd go with 4/1

I would have to agree with this sentiment. It would be very easy for DL to pack up and abandon PVD. But they clearly have no intention to do so. I’m not optimistic about the start date either, but from past experience I much prefer a “floating” start date rather than an indefinite postponement. At least they’re trying, and it’s still on their radar.

There are still some more nonstop routes that could be added out of BDL on AS, DL, and WN once demand recovers such as BDL-SEA on AS, BDL-SLC on DL, and BDL-AUS/DAL/HOU/PHX on WN.

AUS, PHX, SLC, and SEA are also top destinations traveled to from BDL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that aren't currently served nonstop from BDL.

jplatts wrote:

There are still some more nonstop routes that could be added out of BDL on AS, DL, and WN once demand recovers such as BDL-SEA on AS, BDL-SLC on DL, and BDL-AUS/DAL/HOU/PHX on WN.

AUS, PHX, SLC, and SEA are also top destinations traveled to from BDL prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that aren't currently served nonstop from BDL.

PHX and SLC would both be resumption of service, WN really isn't keen on long haul flying at all but I think BDL-PHX is a contender if WN ever starts doing redeyes.

SEA I think has some opportunity from the P&W and Boeing potential traffic

AUS is a pretty far stretch I think

MIflyer12 wrote:

The Logan 2000 projects of the late 90s (2000 more days of construction!) in conjunction with the Big Dig really did improve access to BOS, changing the relative attractiveness of MHT for a lot of customers. It just IS. Through 2019 MHT passenger numbers had fallen by ~60% since 2005 while PWM's had grown by 50%. In 2005, MHT was nearly 3x the size of PWM and now PWM is the larger. For a regional airport, being within 1-1.5 hours of one of the country's biggest O&D airports is tough. It's not just MHT (or PVD): ask FNT, TOL, RST (and they've got the freakin' Mayo Clinic!) or Salem, OR.

Yes, getting in and out of BOS by car was a giant pain in the arse before those projects completed, but now for most hours of the day it's still a major pain in the arse. Off hours it's not too bad, but often pre-covid your planned off hours flight gets delayed and you land during rush hour so too bad for you.

IMO the big shift came when the GFC of 2008 came along and even before that as the US6 became the US3. All of a sudden there was a lot less competitive pressure that used to make the US6 try to match each other at the outposts by flying to their hubs. They all retrenched and began to fight each other by adding point to point flying from places like BOS rather than point to hub from MHT, PVD, PSM, etc.

And in particular DL's trip through bankruptcy let them break their leases at Logan which meant that newly rebuilt terminal was largely up for grabs. All the musical chairs that resulted made room for B6 and WN to grow there and also add to the competition while cutting back at the outposts.

As you say, it is what it is, there's no going back, we get to cope with where things are instead of where we want them to be.

For my last trip pre-covid I found having the shuttle pick me up at a local suburban hotel with free parking then drive me to BOS (where competition meant the tixs were much cheaper than MHT) worked the best. BOS traffic still sucked, but it was the shuttle driver who had to deal with it, and I dodged the parking fees to boot. My return trip was very delayed but the shuttle companies monitored the flight and kept someone around long enough so I got home OK.

PSMs recent rendering of the new terminal looks like it has a DL tail on the ramp wouldn’t that be something.

LotsaRunway wrote:

On the PVD front, there was a PointsGuy article a couple of days ago that discussed Amazon Air. He included a map that showed distribution centers and airports served. I noted that PVD was marked as a future station. Anyone know anything about this? I don't know if he made his own map or got it from Amazon, so I can't speak to the accuracy (nor can I find the article now to link). BDL is a fairly large Amazon Air airport, so I'm a little surprised that they would do another one so close, especially one that they once served and left.

I've heard zip about this, but saw the article and the accompanying map you're referring to. Word on the street is that Amazon Air never wanted to leave PVD. The people who know the true reason(s) why they did have never said anything, leaving the rest of us to speculate. I'm curious where they'd park their aircraft if they did return. Their former parking spot has been taken by the Patriots' 36NE. A change of management at the field's FBO just occurred so their ramp is a possibility, between FX and UP. All that said, I'd love to see them return.

BTV290 wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I guess MHT makes sense if the airport gives them a deal. JetBlue is a well established and known brand in both BOS and BTV. Would help the people in the middle who drive to them. The only airport I can really see being added in New England.

Help those people, yes, but at what cost to B6? I think you'd risk cannibalising BTV and to a lesser extent BOS... Obviously BOS is much less at risk, but it might chip away at the margins. BTV, though--different story. B6 has been struggling in BTV since the early 2010s. First it was 4x daily to 3x daily, then they lost the 320s... They tried MCO direct and that was short lived... Even the B6 staff in BTV (before they were unceremoniously outsourced) were surprised they were still flying... So I think having MHT down the road would do BTV no favours. And perhaps B6 is ok with that... But I just don't see a huge benefit to anyone.

This is very interesting to me as a casual flyer out of BTV. I've always been a B6 fan and have definitely noticed the continued drawbacks, especially the loss of the 4th daily flight which was my preferred time slot. While I tend to fly near weekends or holidays, the flights have always seemed pretty full including the one time I flew BTV-MCO and I had thought there was a lot of business coming down from Quebec. This of course was up until Q1 2020. Pardon my ignorance, but what am I not seeing here? I'd hate to lose B6 at BTV, even though their schedule and pricing is becoming less and less enticing.

EricBTV wrote:

BTV290 wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I guess MHT makes sense if the airport gives them a deal. JetBlue is a well established and known brand in both BOS and BTV. Would help the people in the middle who drive to them. The only airport I can really see being added in New England.

Help those people, yes, but at what cost to B6? I think you'd risk cannibalising BTV and to a lesser extent BOS... Obviously BOS is much less at risk, but it might chip away at the margins. BTV, though--different story. B6 has been struggling in BTV since the early 2010s. First it was 4x daily to 3x daily, then they lost the 320s... They tried MCO direct and that was short lived... Even the B6 staff in BTV (before they were unceremoniously outsourced) were surprised they were still flying... So I think having MHT down the road would do BTV no favours. And perhaps B6 is ok with that... But I just don't see a huge benefit to anyone.

This is very interesting to me as a casual flyer out of BTV. I've always been a B6 fan and have definitely noticed the continued drawbacks, especially the loss of the 4th daily flight which was my preferred time slot. While I tend to fly near weekends or holidays, the flights have always seemed pretty full including the one time I flew BTV-MCO and I had thought there was a lot of business coming down from Quebec. This of course was up until Q1 2020. Pardon my ignorance, but what am I not seeing here? I'd hate to lose B6 at BTV, even though their schedule and pricing is becoming less and less enticing.

Well a couple things...
1. As is often said on here, full flights do not necessarily mean profit. B6 caters to leisure and is focused on the east coast, so they aren't drawing from the [small] business market in the area that needs a more global network. The other thing is although yes at peak travel times, Quebecers can make up about 30 percent of BTV's departing passengers, it's not at all consistent. Canada's LCC market has expanded, PBG across the way is gaining some strength for the warm weather destinations--and really, the Canadians are only coming down for garbage fares. If there was a cheaper option out of somewhere in Canada, they'd be doing that... But that means the US carriers marketing to Canada are charging, well... Garbage fares.
2. Whilst flights may look full, they aren't always. My friends at B6 said they tended to hover between 70-85% LF... Which isn't great. I worked for another carrier when I was there, and B6 was always our safe bet nonrev escape plan, because when everyone else was full and oversold, they still somehow always had seats.
3. I just don't think BTV is that lucrative of a market. For anyone. DL can't maintain mainline year-round, UA has been on and off mainline flying for years, AA hasn't had a mainline bird on the ground since the mid-2000s... It couldn't retain its one international carrier even seasonally to Canada where supposedly all this business is coming from... So I just don't think B6 coming in with an all-mainline business model competing only for warm-weather vacation travel has ever gone that well.

Again, I don't have any insider info here--just my observations.

tomaheath wrote:

PSMs recent rendering of the new terminal looks like it has a DL tail on the ramp wouldn’t that be something.

There's no way I can see Delta going into PSM, especially if they pulled out of MHT. MHT at least can draw from the whole Nashua to Haverhill stretch of the Merrimack Valley (population ~550k alone on the 495/Route 3 stretch) - of that stretch, maybe Haverhill would consider PSM but that's about it. The eastern end of the Merrimack Valley and the I-95 stretch in that part of Massachusetts isn't heavily populated - the biggest town in this area is smaller than the smallest town on the Haverhill to Nashua stretch. Not to mention these towns have access to BOS just as easily, and since they get to access Logan via the back entrance coming down Route 60/1A, it helps the traffic (when I lived in North Andover and would drive to Logan every week, it was a no-brainer to take Route 60/1A versus 93 to the tunnel). Add in Delta having a decent presence at PWM and I can't see them going in there.

Speaking of which, I can't really think of anyone else going in there. American has BOS/PWM/MHT all less than an hour from Portsmouth; United is a shell of itself at MHT and still has BOS/PWM. Frontier, JetBlue and Sun Country are already at BOS/PWM, and Spirit is at BOS. Heck, Elite is at PWM. I wouldn't even be shocked to see MHT make overtures to Allegiant, especially given the population argument I laid out above (the one downside is they'd be competing with Southwest nonstops to the more popular airports; that's the one niche that G4 gets at PSM). I'm not exactly sure who would be left then; putting a new terminal with an extra jetway seems to be a giant white elephant.

BTV290 wrote:

EricBTV wrote:

BTV290 wrote:

Help those people, yes, but at what cost to B6? I think you'd risk cannibalising BTV and to a lesser extent BOS... Obviously BOS is much less at risk, but it might chip away at the margins. BTV, though--different story. B6 has been struggling in BTV since the early 2010s. First it was 4x daily to 3x daily, then they lost the 320s... They tried MCO direct and that was short lived... Even the B6 staff in BTV (before they were unceremoniously outsourced) were surprised they were still flying... So I think having MHT down the road would do BTV no favours. And perhaps B6 is ok with that... But I just don't see a huge benefit to anyone.

This is very interesting to me as a casual flyer out of BTV. I've always been a B6 fan and have definitely noticed the continued drawbacks, especially the loss of the 4th daily flight which was my preferred time slot. While I tend to fly near weekends or holidays, the flights have always seemed pretty full including the one time I flew BTV-MCO and I had thought there was a lot of business coming down from Quebec. This of course was up until Q1 2020. Pardon my ignorance, but what am I not seeing here? I'd hate to lose B6 at BTV, even though their schedule and pricing is becoming less and less enticing.

Well a couple things...
1. As is often said on here, full flights do not necessarily mean profit. B6 caters to leisure and is focused on the east coast, so they aren't drawing from the [small] business market in the area that needs a more global network. The other thing is although yes at peak travel times, Quebecers can make up about 30 percent of BTV's departing passengers, it's not at all consistent. Canada's LCC market has expanded, PBG across the way is gaining some strength for the warm weather destinations--and really, the Canadians are only coming down for garbage fares. If there was a cheaper option out of somewhere in Canada, they'd be doing that... But that means the US carriers marketing to Canada are charging, well... Garbage fares.
2. Whilst flights may look full, they aren't always. My friends at B6 said they tended to hover between 70-85% LF... Which isn't great. I worked for another carrier when I was there, and B6 was always our safe bet nonrev escape plan, because when everyone else was full and oversold, they still somehow always had seats.
3. I just don't think BTV is that lucrative of a market. For anyone. DL can't maintain mainline year-round, UA has been on and off mainline flying for years, AA hasn't had a mainline bird on the ground since the mid-2000s... It couldn't retain its one international carrier even seasonally to Canada where supposedly all this business is coming from... So I just don't think B6 coming in with an all-mainline business model competing only for warm-weather vacation travel has ever gone that well.

Again, I don't have any insider info here--just my observations.

B6 at BTV is not just warm weather traffic, though. Historically October is the busiest month and summer is also up there. This may be why BTV did not get cut back to seasonal like PWM.

The average LF has been around 77%, but they could have cut back to 2x daily and they didn't. Still, I would not be surprised if they never return to 3x daily post COVID, but hopefully they will at least stick around.

I'd be worried that the A220 is going to be too much airplane for market like BTV and PWM once the E190 goes away. My guess is that something between 9 seats (Cape Air) and 140 Seats (A220) will emerge to provide good markets like BTV and PWM with a reliable right sized fit to serve the B6 network. I know there is an aversion to props but the silver ATR's would be perfect for routes like BOS-BGR/PWM/ACK/MVY/BTV/ALB/SYR/ROC/ISP. Essentially what how Horizon allows AS to have a viable hub in a geographic corner.

3X ATRs feeding a reliable hub at BOS would better serve places like PWM and BTV than 2x E190 to JFK (with more seats too!)

FWIW, BTV and PBG attracts lots of passengers from the south shore of Montréal - as it is often less combersome than driving to Montreal's airport (YUL). Even myself, from BTV I flew PeopleExpres quite a few times, and also Jetblue in its first few years.

This is bound to change in a couple years however, when a regional rapid transit gets completed - linking Montreal's south shore to downtown, and later to YUL.

(Google "REM Montreal" to learn more about that new regional rapid transit)

RL757PVD wrote:

I'd be worried that the A220 is going to be too much airplane for market like BTV and PWM once the E190 goes away. My guess is that something between 9 seats (Cape Air) and 140 Seats (A220) will emerge to provide good markets like BTV and PWM with a reliable right sized fit to serve the B6 network. I know there is an aversion to props but the silver ATR's would be perfect for routes like BOS-BGR/PWM/ACK/MVY/BTV/ALB/SYR/ROC/ISP. Essentially what how Horizon allows AS to have a viable hub in a geographic corner.

3X ATRs feeding a reliable hub at BOS would better serve places like PWM and BTV than 2x E190 to JFK (with more seats too!)

They could always get some A221s down the road. There are probably quite a few routes that the A223 is a bit too much for.

mjgbtv wrote:

RL757PVD wrote:

I'd be worried that the A220 is going to be too much airplane for market like BTV and PWM once the E190 goes away. My guess is that something between 9 seats (Cape Air) and 140 Seats (A220) will emerge to provide good markets like BTV and PWM with a reliable right sized fit to serve the B6 network. I know there is an aversion to props but the silver ATR's would be perfect for routes like BOS-BGR/PWM/ACK/MVY/BTV/ALB/SYR/ROC/ISP. Essentially what how Horizon allows AS to have a viable hub in a geographic corner.

3X ATRs feeding a reliable hub at BOS would better serve places like PWM and BTV than 2x E190 to JFK (with more seats too!)

They could always get some A221s down the road. There are probably quite a few routes that the A223 is a bit too much for.

B6 has only A220-300's on order. DL has some A220-100's on order and in the fleet. Also the A220-100 is much better off short runways allowing for adding smaller cities. B6 went only for the A320, no A319's. Seems they like the larger frames.

ExMilitaryEng wrote:

FWIW, BTV and PBG attracts lots of passengers from the south shore of Montréal - as it is often less combersome than driving to Montreal's airport (YUL). Even myself, from BTV I flew PeopleExpres quite a few times, and also Jetblue in its first few years.

This is bound to change in a couple years however, when a regional rapid transit gets completed - linking Montreal's south shore to downtown, and later to YUL.

(Google "REM Montreal" to learn more about that new regional rapid transit)

BTV is a haul, even from the south shore. Part of the problem is the highway still not being extended all the way to the Vermont border. I have taken the bus a few times between BTV and Montreal and each time I have thought to myself that I could not imagine getting off a plane and then having to do this to get home.

Getting to PBG is at least all highway and closer, but the more populated parts of the south shore (Longueuil/Brossard/La Prairie) are much more convenient to YUL, even with traffic (there can be major delays at the border exceeding those at the bridges, and PBG is just generally much further away). Deeper into the Montérégie I could see how PBG might back sense depending on where you're going, but for the areas just south of Montreal it's not super convenient.