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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 19, 2021 8:46 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
MHT Might be the largest airport without a ULCC presence at all, so I think it only makes sense that someone like NK is interested. It would probably just be MCO and FLL, but thats a start for sure.


It seems to me, though, that for the long term they need to try to get the market share more balanced between the airlines that have big networks. A ULCC might stop leakage but I'm not sure if it would do much for fares overall.

I think what it would do is bring down operational costs for all airlines at the airport, which would theoretically make the airport more appealing to those that cut back. You can't go anywhere unless you bring in a market stimulator.
 
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Revelation
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:39 am

LotsaRunway wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
MHT Might be the largest airport without a ULCC presence at all, so I think it only makes sense that someone like NK is interested. It would probably just be MCO and FLL, but thats a start for sure.

It seems to me, though, that for the long term they need to try to get the market share more balanced between the airlines that have big networks. A ULCC might stop leakage but I'm not sure if it would do much for fares overall.

I think what it would do is bring down operational costs for all airlines at the airport, which would theoretically make the airport more appealing to those that cut back. You can't go anywhere unless you bring in a market stimulator.

Based on some links posted earlier here, I would not count on such any time soon. They are in a very conservative fiscal mode, and only keeping their heads above water because of CARES and other COVID related government grants.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:47 am

The Grant money is going entirely to marketing and advertising at MHT, but I think the issues plaguing MHT can’t magically evaporate through that kind of approach. I do think, as others have said, that WN has sort of bungled their New England strategy by sacrificing the smaller stations to grow Boston, only to have their asses handed to them there. That said, they can be confronted by another carrier at MHT without much risk of repercussion. It’s not as though WN is going to magically add a bunch of new flights at a station they’ve been drawing down for the past decade.
 
737Jason
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:04 am

ChrisNH38 wrote:
The Grant money is going entirely to marketing and advertising at MHT, but I think the issues plaguing MHT can’t magically evaporate through that kind of approach. I do think, as others have said, that WN has sort of bungled their New England strategy by sacrificing the smaller stations to grow Boston, only to have their asses handed to them there. That said, they can be confronted by another carrier at MHT without much risk of repercussion. It’s not as though WN is going to magically add a bunch of new flights at a station they’ve been drawing down for the past decade.


A ULCC would be vital at MHT because then they can pick up those former markets abandoned by WN(DEN,LAS and FLL), with in turn increases flights, reduces vacant gates and Introduces people back to MHT. I believe if they both have differing destinations from MHT, it would be a game changer and extremely successful . Competition to the same destination would ultimately lead to the ULCC or WN to pull out of the airport.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:04 pm

I agree 100%, but I think a real opportunity for a new airline at MHT is to go east-west. Practically everything flows north-south now.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:23 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
I agree 100%, but I think a real opportunity for a new airline at MHT is to go east-west. Practically everything flows north-south now.


Because that’s were people go from the northeast by the plane full. Even BDL has lost a good amount of their westbound lift with large markets like LAS going unserved until B6 decided to experiment.

You need to get people to consider MHT first with the lowest hanging fruit before you can start talking about other options. So for now, MHT’s best options are Florida, especially since that’s one area PWM is weaker.
 
paysonmt77
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:32 pm

BGR- ATL and DTW starting in May Saturdays only seasonal due to Delta ramping up Summer to the National Parks. Boston daily starts in May also daily. Both Boston and ATL have not been to BGR since 2008..BGR is smaller than MHT, but Delta offering more service.
 
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Revelation
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:36 pm

paysonmt77 wrote:
BGR- ATL and DTW starting in May Saturdays only seasonal due to Delta ramping up Summer to the National Parks. Boston daily starts in May also daily. Both Boston and ATL have not been to BGR since 2008..BGR is smaller than MHT, but Delta offering more service.

Aspen is also smaller than MHT, but...
 
airbazar
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:09 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
I agree 100%, but I think a real opportunity for a new airline at MHT is to go east-west. Practically everything flows north-south now.


Because that’s were people go from the northeast by the plane full.

I don't know that that's a fair statement. There are tons of capacity and frequencies to places like ORD/MDW, DET, DEN, SLC, LAS, SFO, SEA, LAX. Pre pandemic we even had UA running 777's to SFO. On top of those there's been expansion to vacation spots from BOS like Bozeman, Jackson Hole, Montrose, Steamboat Springs. It is odd that with all of this capacity to the West from BOS, MHT can barely hold on to a Chicago route
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:18 pm

airbazar wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
I agree 100%, but I think a real opportunity for a new airline at MHT is to go east-west. Practically everything flows north-south now.


Because that’s were people go from the northeast by the plane full.

I don't know that that's a fair statement. There are tons of capacity and frequencies to places like ORD/MDW, DET, DEN, SLC, LAS, SFO, SEA, LAX. Pre pandemic we even had UA running 777's to SFO. On top of those there's been expansion to vacation spots from BOS like Bozeman, Jackson Hole, Montrose, Steamboat Springs. It is odd that with all of this capacity to the West from BOS, MHT can barely hold on to a Chicago route


The context was we are talking about parings that ULCC's can fill a plane. The opportunity cost for ULCC's and even most LCC's is too high for focusing on the transcon market. The only way it really works is with red-eyes until you can get the fares up high enough.
 
lat41
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:49 pm

airbazar wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
I agree 100%, but I think a real opportunity for a new airline at MHT is to go east-west. Practically everything flows north-south now.


Because that’s were people go from the northeast by the plane full.

I don't know that that's a fair statement. There are tons of capacity and frequencies to places like ORD/MDW, DET, DEN, SLC, LAS, SFO, SEA, LAX. Pre pandemic we even had UA running 777's to SFO. On top of those there's been expansion to vacation spots from BOS like Bozeman, Jackson Hole, Montrose, Steamboat Springs. It is odd that with all of this capacity to the West from BOS, MHT can barely hold on to a Chicago route

Nothing "odd" there. Southwest lead the way building a Western wall for MHT. By not offering anything too comprehensive heading West, like STL DEN and the destinations and seat count that they scrubbed over the years along with jacking the tariff up, they made dwindling Westbound service from MHT a self fulling prophecy. Carriers protect BOS regardless of the lower yield.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:19 pm

I think WN bungled its New England strategy. Boston now has 12 flights, exactly what MHT started with many years earlier. I don’t think that’s what they had in mind. BOS is a ‘costly’ place to land a plane, and WN is in the throes of competition there, so profit-making is a tough slog for them.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:55 am

ChrisNH38 wrote:
I think WN bungled its New England strategy. Boston now has 12 flights, exactly what MHT started with many years earlier. I don’t think that’s what they had in mind. BOS is a ‘costly’ place to land a plane, and WN is in the throes of competition there, so profit-making is a tough slog for them.


It wasn’t. I read at one point Massport were expecting g them to go to around 55 when they built them the extra gates In B as part of the last round of moves. So clearly there was a plan until it was dismantled completely.

Wonder if Massport will invoke its use it or lose it policy.

The whole New England strategy has been a bit of a mess.
 
SCHATC422
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 11:20 am

A little more BDL news: AA to start 3x daily BDL-MIA frequencies starting June 3rd. Showing all 738/38M in response to B6 starting MIA from BDL, a 200% increase in flights.

Source: https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-respon ... _STdbXv2K0
 
HVNandrew
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 12:22 pm

SCHATC422 wrote:
A little more BDL news: AA to start 3x daily BDL-MIA frequencies starting June 3rd. Showing all 738/38M in response to B6 starting MIA from BDL, a 200% increase in flights.

Source: https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-respon ... _STdbXv2K0

That's a big increase. AA has been 1x daily on BDL-MIA for as long as I can remember. I wonder why the AA/B6 codeshare relationship does not extent to BDL? The article states that it does apply to both JFK/BOS-MIA.
 
airbazar
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:10 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
airbazar wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:

Because that’s were people go from the northeast by the plane full.

I don't know that that's a fair statement. There are tons of capacity and frequencies to places like ORD/MDW, DET, DEN, SLC, LAS, SFO, SEA, LAX. Pre pandemic we even had UA running 777's to SFO. On top of those there's been expansion to vacation spots from BOS like Bozeman, Jackson Hole, Montrose, Steamboat Springs. It is odd that with all of this capacity to the West from BOS, MHT can barely hold on to a Chicago route


The context was we are talking about parings that ULCC's can fill a plane. The opportunity cost for ULCC's and even most LCC's is too high for focusing on the transcon market. The only way it really works is with red-eyes until you can get the fares up high enough.


It doesn't really matter what airline type it is as even in pre Pandemic days every airline was competing for the same pool of passengers. But Chris' comment wasn't about transcons. It was about east-west. Currently there's only 1 such option from MHT: MHT-Chicago. But Chicago in the Winter (and even in Summer), is a risky proposition from a customer point of view if you only have 1 or 2 daily flights. DEN for example is a much more reliable airport to connect at. So if I'm flying West and my options are to connect in ORD/MDW or connect in DEN, I'm driving to BOS. Even BTV had service to Denver, DTW, and ORD. Am I supposed to believe that the market from MHT is smaller than from BTV?


ChrisNH38 wrote:
I think WN bungled its New England strategy. Boston now has 12 flights, exactly what MHT started with many years earlier. I don’t think that’s what they had in mind. BOS is a ‘costly’ place to land a plane, and WN is in the throes of competition there, so profit-making is a tough slog for them.

I agree. They basically owned MHT and PVD and had the "Boston" market very well covered for those outside of 128. At one point even offering flights to DEN and LAS. Once they went into BOS they had to start competing with everyone else at the expense of those stations, maybe not so much PVD but it definitely cost MHT. I think BOS was a lost bet for WN. They will never grow in BOS to what they were hoping to. Maybe they should get back to their roots in New England and revive MHT, and move from BOS to ORH. With the recent migration of people from greater Boston to the suburbs this could be a better scenario for them, and everyone else for that matter.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:14 pm

VS4ever wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
I think WN bungled its New England strategy. Boston now has 12 flights, exactly what MHT started with many years earlier. I don’t think that’s what they had in mind. BOS is a ‘costly’ place to land a plane, and WN is in the throes of competition there, so profit-making is a tough slog for them.


It wasn’t. I read at one point Massport were expecting g them to go to around 55 when they built them the extra gates In B as part of the last round of moves. So clearly there was a plan until it was dismantled completely.

Wonder if Massport will invoke its use it or lose it policy.

The whole New England strategy has been a bit of a mess.

I wonder if WN actually lost market share in the Boston area from just before they entered BOS to where they are now if BOS, MHT, and PVD were all considered one market. While I agree they needed to add the BOS dot for their ff's throughout the country, I think they killed their regional success by trying to make BOS something that it couldn't achieve at the sacrifice of things that worked elsewhere. I'd need to see a lot of numbers before I would believe that BOS is now more profitable on a per flight average than what's left at BDL, PVD, MHT or even PWM. If anyone has those number, I invite you to enlighten me.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:45 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
I think WN bungled its New England strategy. Boston now has 12 flights, exactly what MHT started with many years earlier. I don’t think that’s what they had in mind. BOS is a ‘costly’ place to land a plane, and WN is in the throes of competition there, so profit-making is a tough slog for them.

It wasn’t. I read at one point Massport were expecting g them to go to around 55 when they built them the extra gates In B as part of the last round of moves. So clearly there was a plan until it was dismantled completely.

Wonder if Massport will invoke its use it or lose it policy.

The whole New England strategy has been a bit of a mess.

I wonder if WN actually lost market share in the Boston area from just before they entered BOS to where they are now if BOS, MHT, and PVD were all considered one market. While I agree they needed to add the BOS dot for their ff's throughout the country, I think they killed their regional success by trying to make BOS something that it couldn't achieve at the sacrifice of things that worked elsewhere. I'd need to see a lot of numbers before I would believe that BOS is now more profitable on a per flight average than what's left at BDL, PVD, MHT or even PWM. If anyone has those number, I invite you to enlighten me.

I agree, without a lot of data we can't tell if "big fish in small pond" works better than "small fish in big pond".

I would suggest that WN does have the data, and could easily change their strategy to favor the small ponds again, but they have not.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:04 pm

737Jason wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
The Grant money is going entirely to marketing and advertising at MHT, but I think the issues plaguing MHT can’t magically evaporate through that kind of approach. I do think, as others have said, that WN has sort of bungled their New England strategy by sacrificing the smaller stations to grow Boston, only to have their asses handed to them there. That said, they can be confronted by another carrier at MHT without much risk of repercussion. It’s not as though WN is going to magically add a bunch of new flights at a station they’ve been drawing down for the past decade.


A ULCC would be vital at MHT because then they can pick up those former markets abandoned by WN(DEN,LAS and FLL)...


If WN couldn't make those cities work on O&D plus connecting traffic, a ULCC isn't going to make them work on O&D alone. (I'm a little more optimistic for MHT-FLL ~3x weekly, but why settle for 3x weekly when you can get BOS-MIA/FLL thirty times a day across five different operating carriers and the price competition that brings?)
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:48 pm

Because I don’t even play one on TV, I hope some industry analyst asks the question about the sensibility of WN marching into places like PHL and BOS, where they clearly are a small fish. The whole ‘secondary market’ strategy that WN espoused did in fact work...until they broke their own toy.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:08 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
Because I don’t even play one on TV, I hope some industry analyst asks the question about the sensibility of WN marching into places like PHL and BOS, where they clearly are a small fish. The whole ‘secondary market’ strategy that WN espoused did in fact work...until they broke their own toy.

This armchair analyst will say the genie is out of the bottle, the toothpaste is out of the tube. WN is now used to working in high cost environments and they've had strong financial results doing so. Their recent labor contracts makes it hard to go back to the old model. Their recent aircraft purchases have focused on the bigger -800/-8 models which need more pax to make profitable. You can really make a lot of money with steady business traffic, and especially good margins with walk up fares. It's really hard to operate year round in the smaller markets when many times of year there really are few pax willing to fly at any price, whereas in a "big pond" you are more likely to generate at least some people willing to travel and then hope they pick you out of brand loyalty if your price isn't the lowest. I guess I'd be more willing to see things differently if their overall financial results were poor, but they have not been.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:12 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
Because I don’t even play one on TV, I hope some industry analyst asks the question about the sensibility of WN marching into places like PHL and BOS, where they clearly are a small fish. The whole ‘secondary market’ strategy that WN espoused did in fact work...until they broke their own toy.

I think they did need to go into the big cities eventually, but I think they tried to do too much with them and are getting their a$$ handed to them in the competitive environments. I think it could work with limited basic network connectivity. Maybe the problem with this is that big city costs require more of a mass of scale to work. Look at EWR. That puzzles me that they couldn't make a limited number of flights work.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:42 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
Because I don’t even play one on TV, I hope some industry analyst asks the question about the sensibility of WN marching into places like PHL and BOS, where they clearly are a small fish. The whole ‘secondary market’ strategy that WN espoused did in fact work...until they broke their own toy.

I think they did need to go into the big cities eventually, but I think they tried to do too much with them and are getting their a$$ handed to them in the competitive environments. I think it could work with limited basic network connectivity. Maybe the problem with this is that big city costs require more of a mass of scale to work. Look at EWR. That puzzles me that they couldn't make a limited number of flights work.


There certainly are counter-examples to the 'avoid big cities' arguments: DEN (remember, they've only been back at DEN for fifteen years), MDW and HOU seem to be doing just fine. FLL and STL, too.

IMHO they bailed on EWR too soon, and will live to regret it - just as UA did its departure from JFK.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:41 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
ChrisNH38 wrote:
Because I don’t even play one on TV, I hope some industry analyst asks the question about the sensibility of WN marching into places like PHL and BOS, where they clearly are a small fish. The whole ‘secondary market’ strategy that WN espoused did in fact work...until they broke their own toy.

I think they did need to go into the big cities eventually, but I think they tried to do too much with them and are getting their a$$ handed to them in the competitive environments. I think it could work with limited basic network connectivity. Maybe the problem with this is that big city costs require more of a mass of scale to work. Look at EWR. That puzzles me that they couldn't make a limited number of flights work.


There certainly are counter-examples to the 'avoid big cities' arguments: DEN (remember, they've only been back at DEN for fifteen years), MDW and HOU seem to be doing just fine. FLL and STL, too.

IMHO they bailed on EWR too soon, and will live to regret it - just as UA did its departure from JFK.

Sometimes a large market works and sometimes they don't. DEN is the gold standard for one that worked. I don't count MDW or HOU as primary since they are clearly second fiddle airports in major cities that have been around for a long time. They gave PHL as solid try and then cut it down to just what worked, mostly O&D. Entering major city other airline hubs has been a mixed bag for WN. UA hubs of DEN and IAD have gone in different directions, but UA clearly won at EWR (for now). SFO does what it needs to for O&D and I consider ORD and IAH as too soon to tell. AA hubs of PHL and PHX have differing outcomes, but PHX has a long history at PHX. CLT is pretty weak for WN. DCA holds its own being weak on loads but strong on yields. ORD and MIA are too soon to tell and DFW is TBD. DL hubs: ATL came to them as a hub and was stripped down to a degree to focus more on O&D rather than connections. SLC and DTW have been around a long time, but never impressively successful. MSP just never seems to see much growth. B6 at BOS has seemed unbudged and not challenged at JFK (yet). WN is not doing great at AS' SEA hub.
 
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bdlflyer
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:52 pm

Looks like the BDL - Jamaica discussion has risen again. Could see AA or B6 hopping on this in the future.
https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/s ... o-jamaica/
 
airlineworker
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:03 pm

Heard that HVN will make an announcement in a week or so. That's all I have.
 
SCHATC422
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:22 pm

Flights on B6 to ORH may resume this summer : https://www.masslive.com/worcester/2021 ... Izh4lbIMaY
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:51 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
I think they did need to go into the big cities eventually, but I think they tried to do too much with them and are getting their a$$ handed to them in the competitive environments. I think it could work with limited basic network connectivity. Maybe the problem with this is that big city costs require more of a mass of scale to work. Look at EWR. That puzzles me that they couldn't make a limited number of flights work.


There certainly are counter-examples to the 'avoid big cities' arguments: DEN (remember, they've only been back at DEN for fifteen years), MDW and HOU seem to be doing just fine. FLL and STL, too.

IMHO they bailed on EWR too soon, and will live to regret it - just as UA did its departure from JFK.

Sometimes a large market works and sometimes they don't. DEN is the gold standard for one that worked. I don't count MDW or HOU as primary since they are clearly second fiddle airports in major cities that have been around for a long time. They gave PHL as solid try and then cut it down to just what worked, mostly O&D. Entering major city other airline hubs has been a mixed bag for WN. UA hubs of DEN and IAD have gone in different directions, but UA clearly won at EWR (for now). SFO does what it needs to for O&D and I consider ORD and IAH as too soon to tell. AA hubs of PHL and PHX have differing outcomes, but PHX has a long history at PHX. CLT is pretty weak for WN. DCA holds its own being weak on loads but strong on yields. ORD and MIA are too soon to tell and DFW is TBD. DL hubs: ATL came to them as a hub and was stripped down to a degree to focus more on O&D rather than connections. SLC and DTW have been around a long time, but never impressively successful. MSP just never seems to see much growth. B6 at BOS has seemed unbudged and not challenged at JFK (yet). WN is not doing great at AS' SEA hub.


There's an old yarn told by economists about statisticians. 'How does a statistician demonstrate that every number is prime?'

1 is prime.

2 is prime.

3 is prime.

4 is a statistical outlier...

You don't get to dismiss HOU and MDW since they're inconvenient to your thesis. They each have more than 100 WN flights a day. WN ops at OAK compete with UA ops at SFO, just as ops at HOU compete with ops at IAH. When one accepts that WN competes successfully at LAX, CHI, MCO, SFO/OAK, DEN, LAS, PHX, FLL/MIA, and DAL, that's nine of the top 15 domestic O&D markets in the country. That's as good a score as any of the Big 4.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:55 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

There certainly are counter-examples to the 'avoid big cities' arguments: DEN (remember, they've only been back at DEN for fifteen years), MDW and HOU seem to be doing just fine. FLL and STL, too.

IMHO they bailed on EWR too soon, and will live to regret it - just as UA did its departure from JFK.

Sometimes a large market works and sometimes they don't. DEN is the gold standard for one that worked. I don't count MDW or HOU as primary since they are clearly second fiddle airports in major cities that have been around for a long time. They gave PHL as solid try and then cut it down to just what worked, mostly O&D. Entering major city other airline hubs has been a mixed bag for WN. UA hubs of DEN and IAD have gone in different directions, but UA clearly won at EWR (for now). SFO does what it needs to for O&D and I consider ORD and IAH as too soon to tell. AA hubs of PHL and PHX have differing outcomes, but PHX has a long history at PHX. CLT is pretty weak for WN. DCA holds its own being weak on loads but strong on yields. ORD and MIA are too soon to tell and DFW is TBD. DL hubs: ATL came to them as a hub and was stripped down to a degree to focus more on O&D rather than connections. SLC and DTW have been around a long time, but never impressively successful. MSP just never seems to see much growth. B6 at BOS has seemed unbudged and not challenged at JFK (yet). WN is not doing great at AS' SEA hub.


There's an old yarn told by economists about statisticians. 'How does a statistician demonstrate that every number is prime?'

1 is prime.

2 is prime.

3 is prime.

4 is a statistical outlier...

You don't get to dismiss HOU and MDW since they're inconvenient to your thesis. They each have more than 100 WN flights a day. WN ops at OAK compete with UA ops at SFO, just as ops at HOU compete with ops at IAH. When one accepts that WN competes successfully at LAX, CHI, MCO, SFO/OAK, DEN, LAS, PHX, FLL/MIA, and DAL, that's nine of the top 15 domestic O&D markets in the country. That's as good a score as any of the Big 4.

I see your point, but it misses mine. You are looking at the overall market and I'm looking at airport operations. I exclude MDW and HOU simply because they are secondary airports. OAK falls into this category as well. Bringing this back to New England, BOS, MHT and PVD all fall into the Boston Metro area and airlines often consider them to be the same market. But in reality, there are differences. WN did very well in PVD and MHT before they opened BOS and cannibalized both to support BOS. The Boston area did support WN when it offered service specific to the local demographic, but WN is getting eaten alive at Logan when a direct competing service is offered apples to apples.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Mar 24, 2021 1:17 pm

SCHATC422 wrote:
Flights on B6 to ORH may resume this summer : https://www.masslive.com/worcester/2021 ... Izh4lbIMaY


I still find this politician quote comical: “They are all about Worcester,” Augustus said. “They love Worcester.” referring to an airline that flew to Florida that is adding flights to Florida because everyone is flying to Florida, doesn't want to fly to Florida from ORH... that speaks volumes.

ORH will likely be better served by the likes of Avelo which is hoping to serve large markets from 3rd-tier cities near major markets.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:03 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
SCHATC422 wrote:
Flights on B6 to ORH may resume this summer : https://www.masslive.com/worcester/2021 ... Izh4lbIMaY


I still find this politician quote comical: “They are all about Worcester,” Augustus said. “They love Worcester.” referring to an airline that flew to Florida that is adding flights to Florida because everyone is flying to Florida, doesn't want to fly to Florida from ORH... that speaks volumes.

ORH will likely be better served by the likes of Avelo which is hoping to serve large markets from 3rd-tier cities near major markets.


To be fair there is a fairly strong letter of support from B6 in ORH's SCASD grant application. Of course it's not a commitment but they did not have to provide anything...
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:43 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
SCHATC422 wrote:
Flights on B6 to ORH may resume this summer : https://www.masslive.com/worcester/2021 ... Izh4lbIMaY


I still find this politician quote comical: “They are all about Worcester,” Augustus said. “They love Worcester.” referring to an airline that flew to Florida that is adding flights to Florida because everyone is flying to Florida, doesn't want to fly to Florida from ORH... that speaks volumes.

ORH will likely be better served by the likes of Avelo which is hoping to serve large markets from 3rd-tier cities near major markets.


To be fair there is a fairly strong letter of support from B6 in ORH's SCASD grant application. Of course it's not a commitment but they did not have to provide anything...


Well the grant is for them to get paid to fly to ORH, so of course they support it... They launched PVD-TPA/RSW and BDL-MIA all post Covid without any revenue guarantee, that should tell you how bad the ORH service actually did for them.
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:05 pm

UA just added a smorgasbord of P2P summer flights from the rust belt to PWM. Did not see that coming.

https://hub.united.com/2021-03-25-unite ... 05573.html
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:57 pm

rnav2dlrey wrote:
UA just added a smorgasbord of P2P summer flights from the rust belt to PWM. Did not see that coming.

https://hub.united.com/2021-03-25-unite ... 05573.html


From what I hear the cape and islands are full for this summer, so the next best opportunity is the Maine coast. That said I’ll be surprised if we see any of this in 2022.
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:01 pm

rnav2dlrey wrote:
UA just added a smorgasbord of P2P summer flights from the rust belt to PWM. Did not see that coming.

https://hub.united.com/2021-03-25-unite ... 05573.html


Very weird. Even with higher visitor demand, or a summer tourism season equal to 2019, I can’t see a lot of these routes doing well at all.
 
paysonmt77
Posts: 70
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:15 pm

PIT, CVG, Columbus, Indy, Cleveland, and CVG-3X a week great seeing PIT and CLE come back!!! Portland and Maine as a whole is a destination for the Summer. I would like to see B6 ramp up or ramp out of PWM instead of just JFK.. Again MHT is left in the dust...
 
Portlander
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:47 pm

Props to United and great news for PWM! Not sure how anyone could view this summer service as a negative while the country is still trying to ease out of the pandemic. Location, location, location!
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:17 pm

Portlander wrote:
Props to United and great news for PWM! Not sure how anyone could view this summer service as a negative while the country is still trying to ease out of the pandemic. Location, location, location!


The only thing is if too many people flock to these "hot spots" things get overwhelmed. I had been telling people for months that Florida would be a cluster-F#$& this spring with all the added capacity, and things got so crazy in Miami they had to shut all of Miami Beach down. I think and hope theres enough open space for the influx but If for summer vacations after seeing the Miami mess first hand, i'd recommend people find opportunities at places where the airlines AREN'T adding.
 
airbazar
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:24 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Portlander wrote:
Props to United and great news for PWM! Not sure how anyone could view this summer service as a negative while the country is still trying to ease out of the pandemic. Location, location, location!


The only thing is if too many people flock to these "hot spots" things get overwhelmed. I had been telling people for months that Florida would be a cluster-F#$& this spring with all the added capacity, and things got so crazy in Miami they had to shut all of Miami Beach down. I think and hope theres enough open space for the influx but If for summer vacations after seeing the Miami mess first hand, i'd recommend people find opportunities at places where the airlines AREN'T adding.


I agree however the difference is that Florida has tremendous amounts of lodging capacity. Maine, not so much. So influx of visitors will only be as much as the lodging availability.
Last Summer the same thing happened in the National Parks (and we were one of many families who trekked to the NPs), and I expect this Summer to be even worse. People still won't be able to fly overseas so airlines are doing the best they can to take advantage of the pent-up demand for leisure travel.
 
Cboyle
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:18 pm

Lost in the shed row of this is the fact that UA’s PWM-DEN is now daily starting 6/4
 
Portlander
Posts: 182
Joined: Mon May 28, 2018 12:57 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:19 pm

PWM will now have non stop service to 29 airports and 25 different markets during (or parts of) the summer season. Mainline options noted with an asterisk: CLT*, PHL*, DFW*, ORD, MDW*, MIA, LGA, JFK*, DCA, IAD, BOS, ATL*, MSP*, DTW, SRQ, VRB, MCO*, DEN*, RSW*, RDU*, TPA*, BWI*, EWR, CVG, PIT, CLE, MKE and CMH. Pretty impressive for a city of Portland's size even if it is mostly leisure based. Not sure if service to BNA is still on the horizon?
 
BTVB6Flyer
Posts: 602
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:30 pm

Mentioned over in the Southwest Network thread, signals perhaps pointing to WN announcing BTV soon. Would be a big get for BTV....finally.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:20 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Mentioned over in the Southwest Network thread, signals perhaps pointing to WN announcing BTV soon. Would be a big get for BTV....finally.


Maybe I'm missing something, but I have to wonder how good WN would be for BTV. Right now there is good balance between the three legacies, plenty of hubs being served and fares seem pretty good, and I can see WN upsetting that without really offering much new or lowering fares. If WN can open some new routes then maybe that would be good, but otherwise does BTV really need more flights to Chicago or the DC area?
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:33 am

mjgbtv wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Mentioned over in the Southwest Network thread, signals perhaps pointing to WN announcing BTV soon. Would be a big get for BTV....finally.


Maybe I'm missing something, but I have to wonder how good WN would be for BTV. Right now there is good balance between the three legacies, plenty of hubs being served and fares seem pretty good, and I can see WN upsetting that without really offering much new or lowering fares. If WN can open some new routes then maybe that would be good, but otherwise does BTV really need more flights to Chicago or the DC area?


Being even smaller than PWM, I would suspect that WN to BTV would effectively push out B6 like it did at PWM or they would at least drop to seasonal.
 
tphuang
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:57 am

RL757PVD wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Mentioned over in the Southwest Network thread, signals perhaps pointing to WN announcing BTV soon. Would be a big get for BTV....finally.


Maybe I'm missing something, but I have to wonder how good WN would be for BTV. Right now there is good balance between the three legacies, plenty of hubs being served and fares seem pretty good, and I can see WN upsetting that without really offering much new or lowering fares. If WN can open some new routes then maybe that would be good, but otherwise does BTV really need more flights to Chicago or the DC area?


Being even smaller than PWM, I would suspect that WN to BTV would effectively push out B6 like it did at PWM or they would at least drop to seasonal.


Keep in mind that as part of the NEA, B6 actually cannot leave JFK-BTV or JFK-PWM. I suspect they will get in on more PWM routes.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:21 am

mjgbtv wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Mentioned over in the Southwest Network thread, signals perhaps pointing to WN announcing BTV soon. Would be a big get for BTV....finally.


Maybe I'm missing something, but I have to wonder how good WN would be for BTV. Right now there is good balance between the three legacies, plenty of hubs being served and fares seem pretty good, and I can see WN upsetting that without really offering much new or lowering fares. If WN can open some new routes then maybe that would be good, but otherwise does BTV really need more flights to Chicago or the DC area?


I don't think non-airline employee (paying) passengers generally complain about too many carriers or WN fares. If WN started BTV-DEN/MCO, F9 probably wouldn't survive, but LCC fare competition to CHI and DCA ought to be welcomed.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:27 am

WN to BTV would make total sense based on their other additions.

As a btv flyer though having a large plane to bwi and mdw, cities already served I'm not sure really is the best thing. BTV supports a pretty large number of cities and frequencies pre covid that is great for users. If WN pushes some carriers to lower frequencies to hubs I'm not sure it's good. There is very good frequencies to EWR, DCA, LGA, JFK, PHL and ORD right now. All important business routes. I would he happier if WN focused on florida and kicked frontier out personally. It's hard to say if WN would really be good, god forbid you end up like MHT that would be heart breaking situation for an airport with such great connectivity , connections, frequency and prices. BTV pre covid was very useable fares were good and frequencies were high so business travel was great. In 2019 I rarely saw ALB cheaper , BTV was usually lower and better.
 
BTV290
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:33 pm

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:57 am

With the current infrastructure at BTV, I just don't see WN being able to fit... WN requires a LOT of room in terms of corporate real estate, and without multiple airlines vacating, I feel like all other financial, logistical, network, etc. obstacles aside, it's just a physically very unappealing airport to try to fit into right now... I don't see WN seriously giving BTV any thought until the new consolidated TSA checkpoint is completed and planning/work begins on moving the south concourse gates upstairs...
 
B595
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:52 am

mjgbtv wrote:
Maybe I'm missing something, but I have to wonder how good WN would be for BTV. Right now there is good balance between the three legacies, plenty of hubs being served and fares seem pretty good, and I can see WN upsetting that without really offering much new or lowering fares. If WN can open some new routes then maybe that would be good, but otherwise does BTV really need more flights to Chicago or the DC area?

Personally, I would appreciate another alternative to the legacies for connections besides B6. I like B6, but connecting through JFK is always a gamble, and their latest $35 bag fee is just rank profiteering. WN offers: no nickle-and-diming, no chance of having your flight contracted out to bottom-of-the-barrel regional partners, and better customer service, at least compared to AA and UA. WN crews just seem to take pride in what they do, in my experience (excepting that story from today about the WN pilot ranting over the hot mic).
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 5203
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:48 am

With respect to real estate and BTV being too small i think WN has shown they are willing to do small stations now. Post pandemic they are a different airline in new cities! Visit MTJ and HDN......... BTV is a massive sprawling airport compared to those. Those airports are so tiny, airports WN wouldn't even have looked at pre-pandemic. They are now seasonal 1-3 flights a day airports with Southwest service.

Some of their new additions are very small like 2-3 flights a day and even seasonal. The old WN rules don't apply anymore. I could see them offering 4 flights : 2 to MDW 2 to BWI. or 2 to MCO and 2 to BWI. Something like that seems very possible. I do see WN pulling it off, i am just not sure as a flyer i want them there. BTV you can get anywhere with one stop, great frequencies to the most important business routes N/S, have time options, and good fares. I kind of worry WN might ruin that, but maybe im paranoid and its best for the airport to just have more tenants.

Maybe Southwest is gonna target Florida exclusively. I could see that given how WN is flying to small cities right now. They might not even bother with MDW, Apparently their seasonal cities have been working really well and leisure travel is here for a bit till business travel returns.
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