uconn99 wrote:VS4ever wrote:well it's been an awful long time and frankly due to Covid, the numbers were so bad, i really lost interest, but I figured it was time to dust off the old abacus and post some new numbers. My first port of call was MHT, but they've pulled all their detail files, so not happening there any more in terms of me reporting. So.... down South we go to BDL and update their numbers instead.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true
It's quite fascinating what's happening to be honest. for obvious reasons, a comparative between 20 and 21 is pretty much pointless, so i'm going back to 19. The numbers are still way down, but the map right now has been redrawn between the carriers.
Data below is up to and including May 21 reports.
Total: 403,417 34.1% down over 2019, but the best month since Feb 20 and the start of all the lockdowns
Market Share Rankings
1. AA - 94,230 down 35% (ranking #1 for market share, now overtaken WN with 23.4% share, despite the 35% drop, AA have held their share of the overall pax market to within 0.3% from 19 to 21. In 2019 AA were ranked #2.
2. B6 - 76,376 Yep the Boys in Blue have also taken WN at this point, although it was super close. But B6 are one of the big movers increasing their share from 11.8% to 17.3% and carrying 4,100 more pax during the month. In 2019 B6 were ranked #4
3. WN - 75,097 well they aren't going away quietly, but it's definitely with a whimper. Down to 3rd, after a 48.7% decrease in passenger and a collapse in share from nearly 24% down to 18.6%, there was a song in the early 90's. "The only way is up", I feel WN are signing a different tune "The only way is down", they will be a big player, but they are not the elephant they once.
4. DL - 54,404 - BDL still pays some bills for the 800lb gorilla from Atlanta, but a 55% reduction from 19 and a 6% drop in market share means they are paying a lot less with these numbers. Been 3rd for so long, but no more and it's hard to see them coming back in any meaningful way any time soon. Discuss.
5. NK - 48,667 - the yellow banana's are busy, and one of the recovery success stories at BDL. 10,000 more pax than 2019 and almost a 6% increase in market share to 12.1% and a deserved kick up from 6th to 5th.
6. UA - 45,343, the globes pulled in an interesting set of numbers , 26% reduction from 61,000 in 2019, but because of results elsewhere, market share increased by 1.2%
The others. MX and SY are newcomers but on their first month of operation, so nothing too crazy, picking up a combined 1,500. and F9 with 7,698 is a 43% drop in counts and a 0.3% drop in market share
Can't wait to see what happens in June
The actual difference between 20 and 21 is a mere 6,000 pax across the board, albeit 21 is slightly short, we have a flip where Jan-March 2020 were higher, but Apr-May are running multiple times higher and here's where it gets interesting.
AA is #1 right now by only 5% from B6, however I do expect that gap to widen during the summer months.
B6 is beating WN by around 50,000, but WN is running a little higher in count in the last couple of months, whether they can overhaul that deficit, or want to, or have the capacity to, can be a talking point.
Hot on the heels comes DL, NK and UA, there's about 20K between the three of them. DL is in the lead with UA next, but NK is catching up fast beating UA by 1,400 and 3,300 in April and May respectively
Anyway, I've linked the file with the info in it above, so take a look. if you can't get to it, let me know and i'll change the settings,
Thank you for starting this up again! As a numbers geek I really look forward to your analysis for BDL, PVD, and other New England airports.
PVD will be next. I’m about 75% done with catching up on those. Although they tried to mess with me a bit by posting wrong YTD numbers on a few months so I’m having to recheck everything to be sure.
Will have to see if I can find anyone else to do at this point. BOS will come soon too, but that’s for a different thread
Thanks for the kind words, good to know that someone is looking at the info and analysis:) that’s what makes it worth doing.