twosoun wrote:Does this announcement mean that something may also be in store for HVN service resumption as well???
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I hope so but I hope it's CLT, not PHL.
Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
twosoun wrote:Does this announcement mean that something may also be in store for HVN service resumption as well???
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CairnterriAIR wrote:tphuang wrote:https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/
One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.
What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.
airbazar wrote:CairnterriAIR wrote:tphuang wrote:https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/
One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.
What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.
Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.
airbazar wrote:CairnterriAIR wrote:tphuang wrote:https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/
One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.
What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.
Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.
VS4ever wrote:airbazar wrote:CairnterriAIR wrote:
One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.
What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.
Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.
Let me correct one thing. Yes BOS is not slot constrained, but Massport themselves states that the gates leases (which are annually renewed) ARE on a use it or lose it basis based on the average airport wide usage (not sure if that includes E or not, i suspect just around A-C).
btvhopper wrote:Those BDL numbers really show how much business travel has been whacked by the shift from legacies to ULCC/LCC. Leisure travel can more-than-make up for it in terms of straight Pax numbers, but not profit or even shear dollar value. Even "affluent" leisure travels as described by another poster are much more price-sensitive than businessmen booking last-minute flights to Dallas or SFO on their corporate credit cards.
Legacies will have to change their business model and pricing structures if they can't count on business travel effectively subsidizing ticket prices for everyone else. I for one know my company is going to be much, much more frugal with corporate travel policy moving forwards after seeing the savings from travel budgets over the last 18 months.
VS4ever wrote:airbazar wrote:CairnterriAIR wrote:
One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.
What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.
Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.
Let me correct one thing. Yes BOS is not slot constrained, but Massport themselves states that the gates leases (which are annually renewed) ARE on a use it or lose it basis based on the average airport wide usage (not sure if that includes E or not, i suspect just around A-C).
mjgbtv wrote:In other news at BTV, construction has begun on the terminal integration project. So far it looks like it is all external to the current structure.
I also saw an item on the construction update for the latest board meeting about a jet bridge for Gate 12. I believe that is the one used by Frontier, so I take that as a good sign for the future. It does seem from the enplanement figures that F9 is doing well, especially considering that BTV is recovering more slowly than some airports. I noticed they added a DEN flight last Sunday and have one for the next two weeks as well. I also see that they have three weekly MCO flights scheduled more often than not through the winter, which I think is an increase from last year.
chrisnh wrote:I've said for years that north-south traffic dwarfs east-west for MHT. In the winter when business travelers need to get out west to places like SFO, LAX, etc. it is good to have warm-weather airports to connect at. Right now, we have Midway on Southwest. And Chicago can be as bad if not worse in the winter. LAS would be great; PHX too. These are two cities that Southwest did previously serve nonstop from MHHT. So if Spirit wants to 'stick it to the man,' they'd add one or both.
chrisnh wrote:I don’t really know why Spirit would add flights at MHT before they’ve ever started their first batch. Unless that’s their standard mode of operation for such things.
adamh8297 wrote:chrisnh wrote:I've said for years that north-south traffic dwarfs east-west for MHT. In the winter when business travelers need to get out west to places like SFO, LAX, etc. it is good to have warm-weather airports to connect at. Right now, we have Midway on Southwest. And Chicago can be as bad if not worse in the winter. LAS would be great; PHX too. These are two cities that Southwest did previously serve nonstop from MHHT. So if Spirit wants to 'stick it to the man,' they'd add one or both.
Stopping in BWI (WN), IAD (UA), CLT (AA) can get you to the west coast and have less snow on average than Chicago. Chicago seems to have more consistent amount of snow versus New England which seems to be feast or famine quite often.
I'd actually be more worried about ice storms in the South.
737Jason wrote:chrisnh wrote:I don’t really know why Spirit would add flights at MHT before they’ve ever started their first batch. Unless that’s their standard mode of operation for such things.
Thats what they did when they landed at MKE and STL. I am hoping for more routes, but MHT is different from the other airports in terms of size.
chrisnh wrote:I don’t really know why Spirit would add flights at MHT before they’ve ever started their first batch. Unless that’s their standard mode of operation for such things.
chrisnh wrote:With increased apathy toward MHT by WN, Spirit ought to do well.
airbazar wrote:chrisnh wrote:With increased apathy toward MHT by WN, Spirit ought to do well.
I'm not so sure. WN and NK are really not the same and I don't think they even cater to the same type of customer.
NK at MHT is a totally new concept and I'm curious to see how well it works from MHT. 28" seat pitch on anything more than a 1 hour flight sounds like torture to me and you can't get much further from Florida than MHT, on the Eastern seaboard.
jplatts wrote:While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.
LotsaRunway wrote:jplatts wrote:While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.
Why would they enter such a small market that's within 50 miles of two airports they already serve? If they hadn't already announced MHT, I would say maybe, but I think it would be a huge longshot now. With the current ULCC coverage in New England, I think NK is now looking elsewhere for new cities.
jplatts wrote:airbazar wrote:chrisnh wrote:With increased apathy toward MHT by WN, Spirit ought to do well.
I'm not so sure. WN and NK are really not the same and I don't think they even cater to the same type of customer.
NK at MHT is a totally new concept and I'm curious to see how well it works from MHT. 28" seat pitch on anything more than a 1 hour flight sounds like torture to me and you can't get much further from Florida than MHT, on the Eastern seaboard.
YYT (which is located in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador) is within the range of A320/A321 aircraft from MIA as YYT is 2,124 miles from MIA. Both F9 and NK also already operate a few nonstop routes out of the MIA/FLL market that are longer than MIA-YYT, including FLL-LAS/LIM/LAX on NK and MIA-LAS on F9.
While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.
airbazar wrote:jplatts wrote:airbazar wrote:I'm not so sure. WN and NK are really not the same and I don't think they even cater to the same type of customer.
NK at MHT is a totally new concept and I'm curious to see how well it works from MHT. 28" seat pitch on anything more than a 1 hour flight sounds like torture to me and you can't get much further from Florida than MHT, on the Eastern seaboard.
YYT (which is located in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador) is within the range of A320/A321 aircraft from MIA as YYT is 2,124 miles from MIA. Both F9 and NK also already operate a few nonstop routes out of the MIA/FLL market that are longer than MIA-YYT, including FLL-LAS/LIM/LAX on NK and MIA-LAS on F9.
While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.
I can't make sense of your reply and how it relates to my comment so maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that the market for people willing to abuse their bodies on a seat with 28" pitch on such a long flight, might be really small.
Portlander wrote:I think that geography gives PWM an important advantage over MHT due to it being located twice the distance from BOS and it's only competition to the north is BGR which is 132 miles away.
jplatts wrote:LotsaRunway wrote:jplatts wrote:While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.
Why would they enter such a small market that's within 50 miles of two airports they already serve? If they hadn't already announced MHT, I would say maybe, but I think it would be a huge longshot now. With the current ULCC coverage in New England, I think NK is now looking elsewhere for new cities.
PWM is certainly in a separate market from MHT as PWM is 96 miles east of MHT along with PWM being in a separate metro area from MHT.
The MHT vs. PWM situation is similar to that of AUS vs. SAT, OAK vs. SMF, OKC vs. TUL, CVG vs. LEX, CHS vs. SAV, BUF vs. ROC, MCO vs. TPA, or RIC vs. ORF (where the airports are in separate metro areas and separate markets).
uconn99 wrote:BDL released July 2021 numbers this week, here is the breakdown below: For the first time ever, B6 has passed the 100k mark at BDL. With a couple more year round flights added, B6 may overcome AA for the #1 carrier at BDL.
Airline / July 2021 / July 2019 / % Change
Domestic-
AA- 120,026 / 145,285 / (17.39%)
B6- 111,308 / 69,398 / +60.39%
DL- 95,712 / 126,434 / (24.30%)
WN- 84,732 / 121,815 / (30.44%)
NK- 42,607 / 41,321 / +3.11%
UA- 42,413 / 67,955 / (37.59%)
F9- 20,262 / 14,414 / +43.56%
MX- 3,598
SY- 2,150
International-
B6- 8,915 (included in above number)
Total-
2021- 523,098 (13.27%)
2019- 603,144
VS4ever wrote:uconn99 wrote:BDL released July 2021 numbers this week, here is the breakdown below: For the first time ever, B6 has passed the 100k mark at BDL. With a couple more year round flights added, B6 may overcome AA for the #1 carrier at BDL.
Airline / July 2021 / July 2019 / % Change
Domestic-
AA- 120,026 / 145,285 / (17.39%)
B6- 111,308 / 69,398 / +60.39%
DL- 95,712 / 126,434 / (24.30%)
WN- 84,732 / 121,815 / (30.44%)
NK- 42,607 / 41,321 / +3.11%
UA- 42,413 / 67,955 / (37.59%)
F9- 20,262 / 14,414 / +43.56%
MX- 3,598
SY- 2,150
International-
B6- 8,915 (included in above number)
Total-
2021- 523,098 (13.27%)
2019- 603,144
However what you note, doesn't actually tell the whole story. Yes B6 hit 100K and that is truly impressive (June actually took their record before they hit the July number), however look deeper and you find much more going on.
Month
AA - biggest month since Dec 19, beat B6 by 18,000 to keep top spot.
DL - also biggest month since Dec 19
WN - dropped to #4 carrier at BDL, over 11,000 behind DL as #3
F9 - also posted it's biggest month ever at BDL with over 20K, in fact June was a record month before it was eclipsed by July
NK and UA were in a virtual deadheat in July, which is actually win to UA because they are significantly behind NK YTD by some 65K
MX may have a long way to go, but they have replaced SY in the next spot, we will see how things progress on this front.
Although the numbers have dropped by 13% since the heady days of 2019 B6, F9 and NK have all posted increases against their July 19 number, in the case of the former 2, over 40% increase. The YTD numbers don't look so good, but you are comparing a big 7 months in 19 vs a quiet first couple of months in 21 and rapid increase since. 14.3% down for B6, but F9 are up 27.3% albeit on much smaller grand totals.
Now we get to market shares (YTD)
1. The 800lb Love Field Gorilla is now closer to 500lbs, after tumbling from 26.3% to 17.5% since 2017 and dropped from 1st to 3rd. (Did you know, back in 2014. WN carried 1.7m passengers out of BDL. compare that with 395K YTD in 2021.
2. The 800lb DFW Gorilla has moved to the #1 spot. with 23.8%, albeit that's down from 25.4% since 2017
3. Blue is up to 2nd in 2021 up from 4th and share up from 14% to 22.1% since 2017, another huge month like July, could see more consolidation of this position
4. Atlanta - after a number of years at #3, right now they have dropped to #4 and despite a 70K kick YOY from 2020, share isn't up to WN levels yet at 15.4%, this is down from 19.4% in 2017
5. Chicago or Bust - UA, quietly sat at #5 with around 11%, but have now found themselves in #6 and down at 7.6% after being leapfrogged by.
6. The big Yellow Banana, AKA Spirit, who have gone from nowhere in 2017 to nearly 11% share so far in 2021 and their significant lead over UA. Maybe July was an anomaly with them being so close to UA, long way to go to catch DL,
7. The ankle biters - led by F9, who have 2.6% and growing, it's going to be interesting to see how MX changes over time.
It really is fascinating to watch these numbers roll in and how the dynamics of the market are changing out of BDL. More to come i am sure.
uconn99 wrote:VS4ever wrote:uconn99 wrote:BDL released July 2021 numbers this week, here is the breakdown below: For the first time ever, B6 has passed the 100k mark at BDL. With a couple more year round flights added, B6 may overcome AA for the #1 carrier at BDL.
Airline / July 2021 / July 2019 / % Change
Domestic-
AA- 120,026 / 145,285 / (17.39%)
B6- 111,308 / 69,398 / +60.39%
DL- 95,712 / 126,434 / (24.30%)
WN- 84,732 / 121,815 / (30.44%)
NK- 42,607 / 41,321 / +3.11%
UA- 42,413 / 67,955 / (37.59%)
F9- 20,262 / 14,414 / +43.56%
MX- 3,598
SY- 2,150
International-
B6- 8,915 (included in above number)
Total-
2021- 523,098 (13.27%)
2019- 603,144
However what you note, doesn't actually tell the whole story. Yes B6 hit 100K and that is truly impressive (June actually took their record before they hit the July number), however look deeper and you find much more going on.
Month
AA - biggest month since Dec 19, beat B6 by 18,000 to keep top spot.
DL - also biggest month since Dec 19
WN - dropped to #4 carrier at BDL, over 11,000 behind DL as #3
F9 - also posted it's biggest month ever at BDL with over 20K, in fact June was a record month before it was eclipsed by July
NK and UA were in a virtual deadheat in July, which is actually win to UA because they are significantly behind NK YTD by some 65K
MX may have a long way to go, but they have replaced SY in the next spot, we will see how things progress on this front.
Although the numbers have dropped by 13% since the heady days of 2019 B6, F9 and NK have all posted increases against their July 19 number, in the case of the former 2, over 40% increase. The YTD numbers don't look so good, but you are comparing a big 7 months in 19 vs a quiet first couple of months in 21 and rapid increase since. 14.3% down for B6, but F9 are up 27.3% albeit on much smaller grand totals.
Now we get to market shares (YTD)
1. The 800lb Love Field Gorilla is now closer to 500lbs, after tumbling from 26.3% to 17.5% since 2017 and dropped from 1st to 3rd. (Did you know, back in 2014. WN carried 1.7m passengers out of BDL. compare that with 395K YTD in 2021.
2. The 800lb DFW Gorilla has moved to the #1 spot. with 23.8%, albeit that's down from 25.4% since 2017
3. Blue is up to 2nd in 2021 up from 4th and share up from 14% to 22.1% since 2017, another huge month like July, could see more consolidation of this position
4. Atlanta - after a number of years at #3, right now they have dropped to #4 and despite a 70K kick YOY from 2020, share isn't up to WN levels yet at 15.4%, this is down from 19.4% in 2017
5. Chicago or Bust - UA, quietly sat at #5 with around 11%, but have now found themselves in #6 and down at 7.6% after being leapfrogged by.
6. The big Yellow Banana, AKA Spirit, who have gone from nowhere in 2017 to nearly 11% share so far in 2021 and their significant lead over UA. Maybe July was an anomaly with them being so close to UA, long way to go to catch DL,
7. The ankle biters - led by F9, who have 2.6% and growing, it's going to be interesting to see how MX changes over time.
It really is fascinating to watch these numbers roll in and how the dynamics of the market are changing out of BDL. More to come i am sure.
As always thanks for the analysis. I have BDL numbers dating back to 2007, possibly earlier when I was on the monthly email list for passenger numbers before they started posting them online. At some point I hope to put everything into a google sheets with yearly and monthly totals by airline but it is a lot of data so it will take some time.
737Jason wrote:airbazar wrote:I can't make sense of your reply and how it relates to my comment so maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that the market for people willing to abuse their bodies on a seat with 28" pitch on such a long flight, might be really small.
Money talks. And for people who don't know too much about Spirit and only see the fare price, they believe it is a great deal, not realizing seat pitch, etc...
chrisnh wrote:I flew Frontier A321s between PWM-RSW and couldn’t wait to get off both flights. It was almost inhumanely uncomfortable.
airbazar wrote:737Jason wrote:airbazar wrote:I can't make sense of your reply and how it relates to my comment so maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that the market for people willing to abuse their bodies on a seat with 28" pitch on such a long flight, might be really small.
Money talks. And for people who don't know too much about Spirit and only see the fare price, they believe it is a great deal, not realizing seat pitch, etc...
I think you're mistaken. People who fly from MHT also fly from BOS. I'm pretty sure anyone who's ever flown to Florida has one time or another considered Spirit and know what they are like. The news of their meltdown this past Summer sure didn't help. MHT is a small market to begin with and those willing to fly with a ULCC are an even smaller subset of the market. They'll need all the repeat customers they can get or they'll be out of MHT once the $1.2 million worth of incentives ends in 2 years.chrisnh wrote:I flew Frontier A321s between PWM-RSW and couldn’t wait to get off both flights. It was almost inhumanely uncomfortable.
And I bet you won't fly them again, right?
adambrau wrote:Does anyone have any information on the redevelopment timeframe of JFK Terminal One?
LotsaRunway wrote:You hit on two things that jump out at me. First, I think MHT is much more price sensitive than BOS since it's not as much of a business market as BOS.
chrisnh wrote:I flew Frontier A321s between PWM-RSW and couldn’t wait to get off both flights. It was almost inhumanely uncomfortable.