twosoun wrote:

Does this announcement mean that something may also be in store for HVN service resumption as well???


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I hope so but I hope it's CLT, not PHL.

CairnterriAIR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/

One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.

What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.

Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.

airbazar wrote:

CairnterriAIR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/

One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.

What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.

Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.

Seems small communities value the RON the most since it matches many business needs and usually maximizes connections. I also get your point that the airline probably sees more value in doing this flight with this aircraft rather than doing another route or sitting the aircraft idle. For HVN it’s better than nothing, but clearly not ideal especially knowing late day reliability of RJ flights at PHL. This would probably be a flight that I would avoid myself if I could.

airbazar wrote:

CairnterriAIR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/

One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.

What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.

Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.

Let me correct one thing. Yes BOS is not slot constrained, but Massport themselves states that the gates leases (which are annually renewed) ARE on a use it or lose it basis based on the average airport wide usage (not sure if that includes E or not, i suspect just around A-C).

VS4ever wrote:

airbazar wrote:

CairnterriAIR wrote:

One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.

What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.

Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.

Let me correct one thing. Yes BOS is not slot constrained, but Massport themselves states that the gates leases (which are annually renewed) ARE on a use it or lose it basis based on the average airport wide usage (not sure if that includes E or not, i suspect just around A-C).

E is entirely common use, (except the C/E overlap gates) so I believe the airlines pay a rate to Massport for use, but there’s no obligation to have x flights per month or year. They’ve reiterated many times to the airlines that no one owns a gate, although I believe EK did try that a few years ago.

But as a result, there’s no guarantee you get the gate you want, or sometimes any gate at all. Even those with lounges attached to the gates aren’t entitled to or guarantee that gate. Flip side of course is that if you have any problems with the infrastructure…that’s Massport’s problem to deal with.

Regarding the timing…I agree, we’re looking at it too one sided. Timing seems questionable from our end, but it does connect relatively well on the PHL side

btvhopper wrote:

Those BDL numbers really show how much business travel has been whacked by the shift from legacies to ULCC/LCC. Leisure travel can more-than-make up for it in terms of straight Pax numbers, but not profit or even shear dollar value. Even "affluent" leisure travels as described by another poster are much more price-sensitive than businessmen booking last-minute flights to Dallas or SFO on their corporate credit cards.

Legacies will have to change their business model and pricing structures if they can't count on business travel effectively subsidizing ticket prices for everyone else. I for one know my company is going to be much, much more frugal with corporate travel policy moving forwards after seeing the savings from travel budgets over the last 18 months.

Think I've said this before, but I can see AS starting BDL soon with a redeye from SEA. One of the bigger holes left at BDL destination-wise, SEA. Perfect opportunity for AS to hop in since they have the large AA presence at BDL, and growing at SEA.

VS4ever wrote:

airbazar wrote:

CairnterriAIR wrote:

One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.

What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.

Sometimes the conspiracy theories here get a little overblown. I don't think an airline would fly a plane at a time it knows that it can't attract any passengers just for the sake of flying the plane. It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it. Even if Massport pressured them to fly the route as you're implying I would think that AA would still fly the plane at a time it thinks it can maximize its value. AA has a departure bank at PHL from 8:45pm-9:40pm with a phew usable connections such as MIA, RIC, CVG, PIT, BNA, RDU, DUB, MXP. It seems to me that this flight is perfectly timed for that connection bank.

Let me correct one thing. Yes BOS is not slot constrained, but Massport themselves states that the gates leases (which are annually renewed) ARE on a use it or lose it basis based on the average airport wide usage (not sure if that includes E or not, i suspect just around A-C).

Before I get accused of bringing a BOS topic to a non-BOS thread let me just clarify that I wasn't refering to BOS: "It's not like PHL is slot constrained and they have to use it or lose it."

https://m.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/ar ... ch-lawsuit Finally, there are a few more details:

Finally, a few more details about BTV Airport director Gene Richards’ situation:


https://m.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/ar ... ch-lawsuit

Here are the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factors for WN flights out of BDL, MHT, PWM, and PVD in June 2021:
BDL-BNA - 7544 passengers, 8300 seats, 90.89% load factor
BDL-BWI - 26460 passengers, 29589 seats, 89.43% load factor
BDL-DEN - 7229 passengers, 8080 seats, 89.47% load factor
BDL-FLL - 240 passengers, 493 seats, 48.68% load factor
BDL-MCO - 12111 passengers, 13362 seats, 90.64% load factor
BDL-MDW - 14459 passengers, 15791 seats, 91.56% load factor
BDL-RSW - 276 passengers, 350 seats, 78.86% load factor
BDL-TPA - 8698 passengers, 9572 seats, 90.87% load factor

BWI-MHT - 24784 passengers, 27485 seats, 90.17% load factor
MCO-MHT - 8791 passengers, 10202 seats, 86.17% load factor
MDW-MHT - 12971 passengers, 15358 seats, 84.46% load factor
MHT-TPA - 2333 passengers, 2781 seats, 83.89% load factor

BWI-PWM - 24524 passengers, 28701 seats, 85.45% load factor
MDW-PWM - 6359 passengers, 7841 seats, 81.10% load factor

BWI-PVD - 26207 passengers, 28923 seats, 90.61% load factor
FLL-PVD - 1216 passengers, 1494 seats, 81.39% load factor
MCO-PVD - 17802 passengers, 19392 seats, 91.80% load factor
MDW-PVD - 14229 passengers, 15817 seats, 89.96% load factor
PVD-RSW - 988 passengers, 1176 seats, 84.01% load factor
PVD-TPA - 9428 passengers, 10667 seats, 88.38% load factor

BDL released July 2021 numbers this week, here is the breakdown below: For the first time ever, B6 has passed the 100k mark at BDL. With a couple more year round flights added, B6 may overcome AA for the #1 carrier at BDL.

Airline / July 2021 / July 2019 / % Change

Domestic-

AA- 120,026 / 145,285 / (17.39%)
B6- 111,308 / 69,398 / +60.39%
DL- 95,712 / 126,434 / (24.30%)
WN- 84,732 / 121,815 / (30.44%)
NK- 42,607 / 41,321 / +3.11%
UA- 42,413 / 67,955 / (37.59%)
F9- 20,262 / 14,414 / +43.56%
MX- 3,598
SY- 2,150

International-

B6- 8,915 (included in above number)

Total-

2021- 523,098 (13.27%)
2019- 603,144

The BTV situation looks like someone who's looking for $$. In all honesty he might not be "nice" or "friendly" but nothing here sounds that bad. I've had way worse bosses and seen way worse things.

She’s asking for money damages for loss of income, including back pay, and for emotional distress and attorney fees..........here's all I think you need to see on the BTV situation. It's a money grab and a disgruntled former employee. Really the "details" make this seem like a real grasping for straws situation more over time.

In other news at BTV, construction has begun on the terminal integration project. So far it looks like it is all external to the current structure.

I also saw an item on the construction update for the latest board meeting about a jet bridge for Gate 12. I believe that is the one used by Frontier, so I take that as a good sign for the future. It does seem from the enplanement figures that F9 is doing well, especially considering that BTV is recovering more slowly than some airports. I noticed they added a DEN flight last Sunday and have one for the next two weeks as well. I also see that they have three weekly MCO flights scheduled more often than not through the winter, which I think is an increase from last year.

"BTV recovering more slowly than some airports"

That should change when Canadians are able to drive accross the border and use BTV...

mjgbtv wrote:

In other news at BTV, construction has begun on the terminal integration project. So far it looks like it is all external to the current structure.

I also saw an item on the construction update for the latest board meeting about a jet bridge for Gate 12. I believe that is the one used by Frontier, so I take that as a good sign for the future. It does seem from the enplanement figures that F9 is doing well, especially considering that BTV is recovering more slowly than some airports. I noticed they added a DEN flight last Sunday and have one for the next two weeks as well. I also see that they have three weekly MCO flights scheduled more often than not through the winter, which I think is an increase from last year.

3x weekly to MCA may be an increase from last year but not pre-pandemic winter of 2020 where they were at 4x, with A321's occasionally in the mix.

That's encouraging about the new bridge for Frontier. My understanding is the airline itself didn't want to pay for bridge or bridge rental (not sure the exact details of the agreement) and BTV gave them a discounted price if they onboarded passengers directly on the tarmac. I wonder if it changed on Frontier's end, or if the airport itself is getting tire of the lack of a proper bridge.

With the inaugural flight of Spirit into MHT rapidly approaching, I have heard rumors swirling of Spirit announcing more nonstop destinations at the event, as it is common for Airlines, like Spirit to announce new routes at the inaugural events, as the did at STL and MKE. What could these new destinations be, if any. My guesses would be any of the following: MYR, LAS, SJU, ATL, DEN, DTW, ORD. I believe the warmer destinations have a higher chance of being added, and I firmly believe we will see LAS from MHT.

Less then daily to LAS would make total sense to me from MHT. You can totally stimulate demand with a cheap N/S to vegas from anywhere so dont let O&D numbers be a downer. They could easily fill that flight. 4x a week would be perfect. The Vegas leisure customer tends to be very flexible on days of the week.

I've said for years that north-south traffic dwarfs east-west for MHT. In the winter when business travelers need to get out west to places like SFO, LAX, etc. it is good to have warm-weather airports to connect at. Right now, we have Midway on Southwest. And Chicago can be as bad if not worse in the winter. LAS would be great; PHX too. These are two cities that Southwest did previously serve nonstop from MHHT. So if Spirit wants to 'stick it to the man,' they'd add one or both.

LAS, MYR, and PHX, in that order, I think would be good bets. The others mentioned are longshots at best. I sincerely hope that NK is a boon for MHT. Man do they need it.

Peace

I agree, 100%. Spirit will see the LAS vacancy, and pounce on it. I just don't see PHX happening, but I am positive MYR will be announced.

chrisnh wrote:

I've said for years that north-south traffic dwarfs east-west for MHT. In the winter when business travelers need to get out west to places like SFO, LAX, etc. it is good to have warm-weather airports to connect at. Right now, we have Midway on Southwest. And Chicago can be as bad if not worse in the winter. LAS would be great; PHX too. These are two cities that Southwest did previously serve nonstop from MHHT. So if Spirit wants to 'stick it to the man,' they'd add one or both.

Stopping in BWI (WN), IAD (UA), CLT (AA) can get you to the west coast and have less snow on average than Chicago. Chicago seems to have more consistent amount of snow versus New England which seems to be feast or famine quite often.

I'd actually be more worried about ice storms in the South.

I don’t really know why Spirit would add flights at MHT before they’ve ever started their first batch. Unless that’s their standard mode of operation for such things.

chrisnh wrote:

I don’t really know why Spirit would add flights at MHT before they’ve ever started their first batch. Unless that’s their standard mode of operation for such things.

Thats what they did when they landed at MKE and STL. I am hoping for more routes, but MHT is different from the other airports in terms of size.

adamh8297 wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

I've said for years that north-south traffic dwarfs east-west for MHT. In the winter when business travelers need to get out west to places like SFO, LAX, etc. it is good to have warm-weather airports to connect at. Right now, we have Midway on Southwest. And Chicago can be as bad if not worse in the winter. LAS would be great; PHX too. These are two cities that Southwest did previously serve nonstop from MHHT. So if Spirit wants to 'stick it to the man,' they'd add one or both.

Stopping in BWI (WN), IAD (UA), CLT (AA) can get you to the west coast and have less snow on average than Chicago. Chicago seems to have more consistent amount of snow versus New England which seems to be feast or famine quite often.

I'd actually be more worried about ice storms in the South.

CLT has had quite a few weather lockdowns over the years.

737Jason wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

I don’t really know why Spirit would add flights at MHT before they’ve ever started their first batch. Unless that’s their standard mode of operation for such things.

Thats what they did when they landed at MKE and STL. I am hoping for more routes, but MHT is different from the other airports in terms of size.

I would think it comes down to their initiation plans and how early bookings appear. Pretty much everyplace does well with supporting ULCC entry. Just look at all the regional airports in the northeast. They even do OK in the major city business markets, but B6 seems to have a loyal business following that doesn’t crack much at BOS and JFK.

I would look at places that have done well for ULCCs at PWM, BTV and PWM. NK doesn’t serve any of them and wouldn’t mind cutting into their markets.

chrisnh wrote:

I don’t really know why Spirit would add flights at MHT before they’ve ever started their first batch. Unless that’s their standard mode of operation for such things.

Pretty common ULCC playbook. Use every part of free publicity you can

Announcing new cities on launch day is common it's free publicity on a day the news will be covering you. "First day here at MHT for spirit and they say bookings are so amazing they are adding las vegas baby! Get your cheap flights to vegas now from manchester on those yellow planes because they say manchester is rolling doubles for them". Much better news then just "spirit started today we will see how the flights do"

With increased apathy toward MHT by WN, Spirit ought to do well.

chrisnh wrote:

With increased apathy toward MHT by WN, Spirit ought to do well.

I'm not so sure. WN and NK are really not the same and I don't think they even cater to the same type of customer.
NK at MHT is a totally new concept and I'm curious to see how well it works from MHT. 28" seat pitch on anything more than a 1 hour flight sounds like torture to me and you can't get much further from Florida than MHT, on the Eastern seaboard.

airbazar wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

With increased apathy toward MHT by WN, Spirit ought to do well.

I'm not so sure. WN and NK are really not the same and I don't think they even cater to the same type of customer.
NK at MHT is a totally new concept and I'm curious to see how well it works from MHT. 28" seat pitch on anything more than a 1 hour flight sounds like torture to me and you can't get much further from Florida than MHT, on the Eastern seaboard.

YYT (which is located in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador) is within the range of A320/A321 aircraft from MIA as YYT is 2,124 miles from MIA. Both F9 and NK also already operate a few nonstop routes out of the MIA/FLL market that are longer than MIA-YYT, including FLL-LAS/LIM/LAX on NK and MIA-LAS on F9.

While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.

jplatts wrote:

While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.

Why would they enter such a small market that's within 50 miles of two airports they already serve? If they hadn't already announced MHT, I would say maybe, but I think it would be a huge longshot now. With the current ULCC coverage in New England, I think NK is now looking elsewhere for new cities.

LotsaRunway wrote:

jplatts wrote:

While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.

Why would they enter such a small market that's within 50 miles of two airports they already serve? If they hadn't already announced MHT, I would say maybe, but I think it would be a huge longshot now. With the current ULCC coverage in New England, I think NK is now looking elsewhere for new cities.

PWM is certainly in a separate market from MHT as PWM is 96 miles east of MHT along with PWM being in a separate metro area from MHT.

The MHT vs. PWM situation is similar to that of AUS vs. SAT, OAK vs. SMF, OKC vs. TUL, CVG vs. LEX, CHS vs. SAV, BUF vs. ROC, MCO vs. TPA, or RIC vs. ORF (where the airports are in separate metro areas and separate markets).

I think that geography gives PWM an important advantage over MHT due to it being located twice the distance from BOS and it's only competition to the north is BGR which is 132 miles away.

jplatts wrote:

airbazar wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

With increased apathy toward MHT by WN, Spirit ought to do well.

I'm not so sure. WN and NK are really not the same and I don't think they even cater to the same type of customer.
NK at MHT is a totally new concept and I'm curious to see how well it works from MHT. 28" seat pitch on anything more than a 1 hour flight sounds like torture to me and you can't get much further from Florida than MHT, on the Eastern seaboard.

YYT (which is located in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador) is within the range of A320/A321 aircraft from MIA as YYT is 2,124 miles from MIA. Both F9 and NK also already operate a few nonstop routes out of the MIA/FLL market that are longer than MIA-YYT, including FLL-LAS/LIM/LAX on NK and MIA-LAS on F9.

While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.

I can't make sense of your reply and how it relates to my comment so maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that the market for people willing to abuse their bodies on a seat with 28" pitch on such a long flight, might be really small.

airbazar wrote:

jplatts wrote:

airbazar wrote:

I'm not so sure. WN and NK are really not the same and I don't think they even cater to the same type of customer.
NK at MHT is a totally new concept and I'm curious to see how well it works from MHT. 28" seat pitch on anything more than a 1 hour flight sounds like torture to me and you can't get much further from Florida than MHT, on the Eastern seaboard.

YYT (which is located in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador) is within the range of A320/A321 aircraft from MIA as YYT is 2,124 miles from MIA. Both F9 and NK also already operate a few nonstop routes out of the MIA/FLL market that are longer than MIA-YYT, including FLL-LAS/LIM/LAX on NK and MIA-LAS on F9.

While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.

I can't make sense of your reply and how it relates to my comment so maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that the market for people willing to abuse their bodies on a seat with 28" pitch on such a long flight, might be really small.

Money talks. And for people who don't know too much about Spirit and only see the fare price, they believe it is a great deal, not realizing seat pitch, etc...

Portlander wrote:

I think that geography gives PWM an important advantage over MHT due to it being located twice the distance from BOS and it's only competition to the north is BGR which is 132 miles away.

I don't disagree with that but given the landscape of NK already being at BOS and MHT, and F9 already being at PWM, I don't see a lot of upside to placing a third NK market just up the road where it would be going head-to-head with F6 for most of its best route options in a relatively small market. Now if MHT hadn't landed NK or if F9 was already well entrenched at PWM, then I agree that PWM would be a more viable option.

I'm in total agreement with you and am not alone in hoping that Spirit never touches down in Portland. They are the Dollar Store of the airline business and I wish MHT the very best because it deserves a much needed boost.

I flew Frontier A321s between PWM-RSW and couldn’t wait to get off both flights. It was almost inhumanely uncomfortable.

jplatts wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

jplatts wrote:

While WN, F9, and B6 all already serve PWM, NK entering PWM might be a possibility if NK is successful at MHT.

Why would they enter such a small market that's within 50 miles of two airports they already serve? If they hadn't already announced MHT, I would say maybe, but I think it would be a huge longshot now. With the current ULCC coverage in New England, I think NK is now looking elsewhere for new cities.

PWM is certainly in a separate market from MHT as PWM is 96 miles east of MHT along with PWM being in a separate metro area from MHT.

The MHT vs. PWM situation is similar to that of AUS vs. SAT, OAK vs. SMF, OKC vs. TUL, CVG vs. LEX, CHS vs. SAV, BUF vs. ROC, MCO vs. TPA, or RIC vs. ORF (where the airports are in separate metro areas and separate markets).

Every single city you mention is likely larger (center city or metro area) than Portland

Lexington, Manchester and Savannah metro areas (MSA) are smaller than Portland but all of the city populations are much larger. Portland only has 23 square miles to squeeze 68,000 residents in and that includes the islands : )

uconn99 wrote:

BDL released July 2021 numbers this week, here is the breakdown below: For the first time ever, B6 has passed the 100k mark at BDL. With a couple more year round flights added, B6 may overcome AA for the #1 carrier at BDL.

Airline / July 2021 / July 2019 / % Change

Domestic-

AA- 120,026 / 145,285 / (17.39%)
B6- 111,308 / 69,398 / +60.39%
DL- 95,712 / 126,434 / (24.30%)
WN- 84,732 / 121,815 / (30.44%)
NK- 42,607 / 41,321 / +3.11%
UA- 42,413 / 67,955 / (37.59%)
F9- 20,262 / 14,414 / +43.56%
MX- 3,598
SY- 2,150

International-

B6- 8,915 (included in above number)

Total-

2021- 523,098 (13.27%)
2019- 603,144

However what you note, doesn't actually tell the whole story. Yes B6 hit 100K and that is truly impressive (June actually took their record before they hit the July number), however look deeper and you find much more going on.

Month

AA - biggest month since Dec 19, beat B6 by 18,000 to keep top spot.
DL - also biggest month since Dec 19
WN - dropped to #4 carrier at BDL, over 11,000 behind DL as #3
F9 - also posted it's biggest month ever at BDL with over 20K, in fact June was a record month before it was eclipsed by July
NK and UA were in a virtual deadheat in July, which is actually win to UA because they are significantly behind NK YTD by some 65K
MX may have a long way to go, but they have replaced SY in the next spot, we will see how things progress on this front.

Although the numbers have dropped by 13% since the heady days of 2019 B6, F9 and NK have all posted increases against their July 19 number, in the case of the former 2, over 40% increase. The YTD numbers don't look so good, but you are comparing a big 7 months in 19 vs a quiet first couple of months in 21 and rapid increase since. 14.3% down for B6, but F9 are up 27.3% albeit on much smaller grand totals.

Now we get to market shares (YTD)
1. The 800lb Love Field Gorilla is now closer to 500lbs, after tumbling from 26.3% to 17.5% since 2017 and dropped from 1st to 3rd. (Did you know, back in 2014. WN carried 1.7m passengers out of BDL. compare that with 395K YTD in 2021.
2. The 800lb DFW Gorilla has moved to the #1 spot. with 23.8%, albeit that's down from 25.4% since 2017
3. Blue is up to 2nd in 2021 up from 4th and share up from 14% to 22.1% since 2017, another huge month like July, could see more consolidation of this position
4. Atlanta - after a number of years at #3, right now they have dropped to #4 and despite a 70K kick YOY from 2020, share isn't up to WN levels yet at 15.4%, this is down from 19.4% in 2017
5. Chicago or Bust - UA, quietly sat at #5 with around 11%, but have now found themselves in #6 and down at 7.6% after being leapfrogged by.
6. The big Yellow Banana, AKA Spirit, who have gone from nowhere in 2017 to nearly 11% share so far in 2021 and their significant lead over UA. Maybe July was an anomaly with them being so close to UA, long way to go to catch DL,
7. The ankle biters - led by F9, who have 2.6% and growing, it's going to be interesting to see how MX changes over time.

It really is fascinating to watch these numbers roll in and how the dynamics of the market are changing out of BDL. More to come i am sure.

VS4ever wrote:

uconn99 wrote:

BDL released July 2021 numbers this week, here is the breakdown below: For the first time ever, B6 has passed the 100k mark at BDL. With a couple more year round flights added, B6 may overcome AA for the #1 carrier at BDL.

Airline / July 2021 / July 2019 / % Change

Domestic-

AA- 120,026 / 145,285 / (17.39%)
B6- 111,308 / 69,398 / +60.39%
DL- 95,712 / 126,434 / (24.30%)
WN- 84,732 / 121,815 / (30.44%)
NK- 42,607 / 41,321 / +3.11%
UA- 42,413 / 67,955 / (37.59%)
F9- 20,262 / 14,414 / +43.56%
MX- 3,598
SY- 2,150

International-

B6- 8,915 (included in above number)

Total-

2021- 523,098 (13.27%)
2019- 603,144

However what you note, doesn't actually tell the whole story. Yes B6 hit 100K and that is truly impressive (June actually took their record before they hit the July number), however look deeper and you find much more going on.

Month

AA - biggest month since Dec 19, beat B6 by 18,000 to keep top spot.
DL - also biggest month since Dec 19
WN - dropped to #4 carrier at BDL, over 11,000 behind DL as #3
F9 - also posted it's biggest month ever at BDL with over 20K, in fact June was a record month before it was eclipsed by July
NK and UA were in a virtual deadheat in July, which is actually win to UA because they are significantly behind NK YTD by some 65K
MX may have a long way to go, but they have replaced SY in the next spot, we will see how things progress on this front.

Although the numbers have dropped by 13% since the heady days of 2019 B6, F9 and NK have all posted increases against their July 19 number, in the case of the former 2, over 40% increase. The YTD numbers don't look so good, but you are comparing a big 7 months in 19 vs a quiet first couple of months in 21 and rapid increase since. 14.3% down for B6, but F9 are up 27.3% albeit on much smaller grand totals.

Now we get to market shares (YTD)
1. The 800lb Love Field Gorilla is now closer to 500lbs, after tumbling from 26.3% to 17.5% since 2017 and dropped from 1st to 3rd. (Did you know, back in 2014. WN carried 1.7m passengers out of BDL. compare that with 395K YTD in 2021.
2. The 800lb DFW Gorilla has moved to the #1 spot. with 23.8%, albeit that's down from 25.4% since 2017
3. Blue is up to 2nd in 2021 up from 4th and share up from 14% to 22.1% since 2017, another huge month like July, could see more consolidation of this position
4. Atlanta - after a number of years at #3, right now they have dropped to #4 and despite a 70K kick YOY from 2020, share isn't up to WN levels yet at 15.4%, this is down from 19.4% in 2017
5. Chicago or Bust - UA, quietly sat at #5 with around 11%, but have now found themselves in #6 and down at 7.6% after being leapfrogged by.
6. The big Yellow Banana, AKA Spirit, who have gone from nowhere in 2017 to nearly 11% share so far in 2021 and their significant lead over UA. Maybe July was an anomaly with them being so close to UA, long way to go to catch DL,
7. The ankle biters - led by F9, who have 2.6% and growing, it's going to be interesting to see how MX changes over time.

It really is fascinating to watch these numbers roll in and how the dynamics of the market are changing out of BDL. More to come i am sure.

As always thanks for the analysis. I have BDL numbers dating back to 2007, possibly earlier when I was on the monthly email list for passenger numbers before they started posting them online. At some point I hope to put everything into a google sheets with yearly and monthly totals by airline but it is a lot of data so it will take some time.

uconn99 wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

uconn99 wrote:

BDL released July 2021 numbers this week, here is the breakdown below: For the first time ever, B6 has passed the 100k mark at BDL. With a couple more year round flights added, B6 may overcome AA for the #1 carrier at BDL.

Airline / July 2021 / July 2019 / % Change

Domestic-

AA- 120,026 / 145,285 / (17.39%)
B6- 111,308 / 69,398 / +60.39%
DL- 95,712 / 126,434 / (24.30%)
WN- 84,732 / 121,815 / (30.44%)
NK- 42,607 / 41,321 / +3.11%
UA- 42,413 / 67,955 / (37.59%)
F9- 20,262 / 14,414 / +43.56%
MX- 3,598
SY- 2,150

International-

B6- 8,915 (included in above number)

Total-

2021- 523,098 (13.27%)
2019- 603,144

However what you note, doesn't actually tell the whole story. Yes B6 hit 100K and that is truly impressive (June actually took their record before they hit the July number), however look deeper and you find much more going on.

Month

AA - biggest month since Dec 19, beat B6 by 18,000 to keep top spot.
DL - also biggest month since Dec 19
WN - dropped to #4 carrier at BDL, over 11,000 behind DL as #3
F9 - also posted it's biggest month ever at BDL with over 20K, in fact June was a record month before it was eclipsed by July
NK and UA were in a virtual deadheat in July, which is actually win to UA because they are significantly behind NK YTD by some 65K
MX may have a long way to go, but they have replaced SY in the next spot, we will see how things progress on this front.

Although the numbers have dropped by 13% since the heady days of 2019 B6, F9 and NK have all posted increases against their July 19 number, in the case of the former 2, over 40% increase. The YTD numbers don't look so good, but you are comparing a big 7 months in 19 vs a quiet first couple of months in 21 and rapid increase since. 14.3% down for B6, but F9 are up 27.3% albeit on much smaller grand totals.

Now we get to market shares (YTD)
1. The 800lb Love Field Gorilla is now closer to 500lbs, after tumbling from 26.3% to 17.5% since 2017 and dropped from 1st to 3rd. (Did you know, back in 2014. WN carried 1.7m passengers out of BDL. compare that with 395K YTD in 2021.
2. The 800lb DFW Gorilla has moved to the #1 spot. with 23.8%, albeit that's down from 25.4% since 2017
3. Blue is up to 2nd in 2021 up from 4th and share up from 14% to 22.1% since 2017, another huge month like July, could see more consolidation of this position
4. Atlanta - after a number of years at #3, right now they have dropped to #4 and despite a 70K kick YOY from 2020, share isn't up to WN levels yet at 15.4%, this is down from 19.4% in 2017
5. Chicago or Bust - UA, quietly sat at #5 with around 11%, but have now found themselves in #6 and down at 7.6% after being leapfrogged by.
6. The big Yellow Banana, AKA Spirit, who have gone from nowhere in 2017 to nearly 11% share so far in 2021 and their significant lead over UA. Maybe July was an anomaly with them being so close to UA, long way to go to catch DL,
7. The ankle biters - led by F9, who have 2.6% and growing, it's going to be interesting to see how MX changes over time.

It really is fascinating to watch these numbers roll in and how the dynamics of the market are changing out of BDL. More to come i am sure.

As always thanks for the analysis. I have BDL numbers dating back to 2007, possibly earlier when I was on the monthly email list for passenger numbers before they started posting them online. At some point I hope to put everything into a google sheets with yearly and monthly totals by airline but it is a lot of data so it will take some time.

If you still have the emails. I’m more than happy to do that. I’m a spreadsheet jockey by nature and already have a format to do it. It’s only 7 years and I can knock that out relatively easily. I did BOS going back to 99 so nothing out of the ordinary, send me a message and we can talk about it there.

737Jason wrote:

airbazar wrote:

I can't make sense of your reply and how it relates to my comment so maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that the market for people willing to abuse their bodies on a seat with 28" pitch on such a long flight, might be really small.

Money talks. And for people who don't know too much about Spirit and only see the fare price, they believe it is a great deal, not realizing seat pitch, etc...

I think you're mistaken. People who fly from MHT also fly from BOS. I'm pretty sure anyone who's ever flown to Florida has one time or another considered Spirit and know what they are like. The news of their meltdown this past Summer sure didn't help. MHT is a small market to begin with and those willing to fly with a ULCC are an even smaller subset of the market. They'll need all the repeat customers they can get or they'll be out of MHT once the $1.2 million worth of incentives ends in 2 years.

chrisnh wrote:

I flew Frontier A321s between PWM-RSW and couldn’t wait to get off both flights. It was almost inhumanely uncomfortable.

And I bet you won't fly them again, right?

Does anyone have any information on the redevelopment timeframe of JFK Terminal One?

airbazar wrote:

737Jason wrote:

airbazar wrote:

I can't make sense of your reply and how it relates to my comment so maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that the market for people willing to abuse their bodies on a seat with 28" pitch on such a long flight, might be really small.

Money talks. And for people who don't know too much about Spirit and only see the fare price, they believe it is a great deal, not realizing seat pitch, etc...

I think you're mistaken. People who fly from MHT also fly from BOS. I'm pretty sure anyone who's ever flown to Florida has one time or another considered Spirit and know what they are like. The news of their meltdown this past Summer sure didn't help. MHT is a small market to begin with and those willing to fly with a ULCC are an even smaller subset of the market. They'll need all the repeat customers they can get or they'll be out of MHT once the $1.2 million worth of incentives ends in 2 years.

chrisnh wrote:

I flew Frontier A321s between PWM-RSW and couldn’t wait to get off both flights. It was almost inhumanely uncomfortable.

And I bet you won't fly them again, right?

You hit on two things that jump out at me. First, I think MHT is much more price sensitive than BOS since it's not as much of a business market as BOS. The numbers really surged when prices were cheap and having someone compete on price made other airlines more price competitive. I think that is the dynamic being sought. The other point is that MHT (and PVD) are just a small percent of Boston's overall traffic. I find it amazing how much BOS tries to compete with MHT and PVD seeing that they are largely just mosquitos on an elephant. Adding just one flight or one new city at MHT and PVD really gets noticed. At BOS, it barely changes any percentages.

Does anyone know Breeze's next moves out of PVD or BDL? Anyone know the load factors at both airports?

adambrau wrote:

Does anyone have any information on the redevelopment timeframe of JFK Terminal One?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456183

I think you’re in the wrong thread.

LotsaRunway wrote:

You hit on two things that jump out at me. First, I think MHT is much more price sensitive than BOS since it's not as much of a business market as BOS.

It may be more price sensitive however given how expensive it is to fly from there, if I had to guess I'd say the majority of passengers are business flyers right now. Spirit is trying to capture the non-business passenger that has fled to BOS, and that is going to be a big challenge, IMO. They are really competing with everyone else in BOS, not just WN at MHT. NH residents have proven time and time again that they will drive to BOS if it's cheaper and/or better. I will never set foot inside a Spirit plane but my hope is that they will drive down prices at MHT from everyone else

chrisnh wrote:

I flew Frontier A321s between PWM-RSW and couldn’t wait to get off both flights. It was almost inhumanely uncomfortable.

It’s not bad for a reasonably short three hour flight. And still at least two hours quicker than flying to Florida with a change of planes somewhere. For the fares you can get, I’d be happy with flying on a pallet in a C-130.

Now if I was paying $300 for my ticket instead of $70, I might have an issue.

I have noticed Frontier out of Portland hasn’t been cheap this summer. When I looked at flights to ATL, they were charging over $250 each way. Even flights to MCO were in the hundreds each way. When I used them to RSW last year, it was $100 roundtrip.

Since we’re building a new home near Charleston, flights between here and there are of interest to me. On October 26, the fare from Portland to Charleston is $99. On that same day, the fare from Manchester is $313. $313!!!

So, since we have a house in Kennebunkport, Portland will likely now be our New England airport of choice. And if Ted Kitchens is ticked off at Southwest, he sure has a right to be.