The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) Aviation Thread - 2021

LotsaRunway · Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:02 pm

pwm2txlhopper wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
I flew Frontier A321s between PWM-RSW and couldn’t wait to get off both flights. It was almost inhumanely uncomfortable.

It’s not bad for a reasonably short three hour flight. And still at least two hours quicker than flying to Florida with a change of planes somewhere. For the fares you can get, I’d be happy with flying on a pallet in a C-130.

Now if I was paying $300 for my ticket instead of $70, I might have an issue.

I have noticed Frontier out of Portland hasn’t been cheap this summer. When I looked at flights to ATL, they were charging over $250 each way. Even flights to MCO were in the hundreds each way. When I used them to RSW last year, it was $100 roundtrip.

PWM was in high demand this summer for the vacation crowd. It will be interesting to see if F9 prices stay on the high side as demand settles down.

737Jason · Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:23 pm

So, I guess the real question here is does anyone think Spirit can succeed at MHT, no matter if you like them or not.

airbazar · Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:10 pm

chrisnh wrote:
Since we’re building a new home near Charleston, flights between here and there are of interest to me. On October 26, the fare from Portland to Charleston is $99. On that same day, the fare from Manchester is $313. $313!!!

So, since we have a house in Kennebunkport, Portland will likely now be our New England airport of choice. And if Ted Kitchens is ticked off at Southwest, he sure has a right to be.

BOS-CHS was $130 round-trip, non-stop on both DL and B6 this Summer when we booked to travel labor day weekend.
MHT suffers from the fact that it's close to BOS. They even named the airport "Manchester-Boston" for chrissakes

Airlines, all of them have decided that they are only going to offer token service from MHT for those fliers willing to pay exorbitant fares and they are not going to waste resources to attract low yielding customers. I'm hoping Spirit is the catalyst for change at MHT. Portland is far enough from BOS that it has a catchment area of its own.

uconn99 · Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:05 pm

VS4ever wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:

However what you note, doesn't actually tell the whole story. Yes B6 hit 100K and that is truly impressive (June actually took their record before they hit the July number), however look deeper and you find much more going on.

Month

AA - biggest month since Dec 19, beat B6 by 18,000 to keep top spot.
DL - also biggest month since Dec 19
WN - dropped to #4 carrier at BDL, over 11,000 behind DL as #3
F9 - also posted it's biggest month ever at BDL with over 20K, in fact June was a record month before it was eclipsed by July
NK and UA were in a virtual deadheat in July, which is actually win to UA because they are significantly behind NK YTD by some 65K
MX may have a long way to go, but they have replaced SY in the next spot, we will see how things progress on this front.

Although the numbers have dropped by 13% since the heady days of 2019 B6, F9 and NK have all posted increases against their July 19 number, in the case of the former 2, over 40% increase. The YTD numbers don't look so good, but you are comparing a big 7 months in 19 vs a quiet first couple of months in 21 and rapid increase since. 14.3% down for B6, but F9 are up 27.3% albeit on much smaller grand totals.

Now we get to market shares (YTD)
1. The 800lb Love Field Gorilla is now closer to 500lbs, after tumbling from 26.3% to 17.5% since 2017 and dropped from 1st to 3rd. (Did you know, back in 2014. WN carried 1.7m passengers out of BDL. compare that with 395K YTD in 2021.
2. The 800lb DFW Gorilla has moved to the #1 spot. with 23.8%, albeit that's down from 25.4% since 2017
3. Blue is up to 2nd in 2021 up from 4th and share up from 14% to 22.1% since 2017, another huge month like July, could see more consolidation of this position
4. Atlanta - after a number of years at #3, right now they have dropped to #4 and despite a 70K kick YOY from 2020, share isn't up to WN levels yet at 15.4%, this is down from 19.4% in 2017
5. Chicago or Bust - UA, quietly sat at #5 with around 11%, but have now found themselves in #6 and down at 7.6% after being leapfrogged by.
6. The big Yellow Banana, AKA Spirit, who have gone from nowhere in 2017 to nearly 11% share so far in 2021 and their significant lead over UA. Maybe July was an anomaly with them being so close to UA, long way to go to catch DL,
7. The ankle biters - led by F9, who have 2.6% and growing, it's going to be interesting to see how MX changes over time.

It really is fascinating to watch these numbers roll in and how the dynamics of the market are changing out of BDL. More to come i am sure.

As always thanks for the analysis. I have BDL numbers dating back to 2007, possibly earlier when I was on the monthly email list for passenger numbers before they started posting them online. At some point I hope to put everything into a google sheets with yearly and monthly totals by airline but it is a lot of data so it will take some time.

If you still have the emails. I’m more than happy to do that. I’m a spreadsheet jockey by nature and already have a format to do it. It’s only 7 years and I can knock that out relatively easily. I did BOS going back to 99 so nothing out of the ordinary, send me a message and we can talk about it there.

That would be awesome, I can certainly help. PM your email and I can forward you what I have.

bomber996 · Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:35 pm

I think people on here overestimate how much MHT and PWM compete with each other. The competition at either is BOS, not the other. It is stupidly difficult to travel East-West when you get north of Manchester. Even with the 101, MHT and PWM are still 1:40 by car apart. That's the same as PWM-BOS by car. Maybe back in MHT's heyday there was catchment coming from Downeast, but certainly not anymore. PWM is definitely NOT on many people's radar in southern NH.

Peace :box:

uconn99 · Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:39 pm

jvlmd81 wrote:
Does anyone know Breeze's next moves out of PVD or BDL? Anyone know the load factors at both airports?

Not sure about their performance at PVD since July passenger numbers haven't been released but assuming Breeze had no cancelations my math is below for BDL.

July-

CHS 4x weekly (36 total flights)
CMH 4x weekly (4 total flights, began July 29)
PIT 4x weekly (4 total flights, began July 29)
ORF 4x weekly (4 total flights, began July 29)

48 total flights x 108 seats (assuming all were E190) = 5,184 total seats for the month of July. BDL reported 3,598 passengers in/out on Breeze for the month of July which would put the load factor at 69.4% assuming no flights were canceled. I believe in August BDL-PIT went to 2x weekly, I believed PIT would be the best performer followed by CMH out of BDL but maybe not so much with PIT being cut in half.

adambrau · Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:24 pm

BlueBaller wrote:
adambrau wrote:
Does anyone have any information on the redevelopment timeframe of JFK Terminal One?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456183

I think you’re in the wrong thread.

Whoops! Thank you!

PVD523 · Wed Sep 29, 2021 12:42 am

uconn99 wrote:
jvlmd81 wrote:
Does anyone know Breeze's next moves out of PVD or BDL? Anyone know the load factors at both airports?

Not sure about their performance at PVD since July passenger numbers haven't been released but assuming Breeze had no cancelations my math is below for BDL.

August will be a better tell for Breeze at PVD. CHS started July 22 but ORF and PIT didn't start until July 29, so the sample size will be pretty small. On the flip side, the July numbers will isolate how Breeze did right at start-up.

PVD757 · Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:55 am

Most ORF and PIT flights to and from BDL and PVD were operated on 97 seat E90’s. On 9/23/21, they switched to 108 seats.

chrisnh · Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:54 am

A curious route to me is AA’s DFW-BGR on the A319. Is there a particular corporate contract on either end making this viable? Is this a seasonal-only flight?

pwm2txlhopper · Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:16 am

chrisnh wrote:
A curious route to me is AA’s DFW-BGR on the A319. Is there a particular corporate contract on either end making this viable? Is this a seasonal-only flight?

I believe it’s summer only? Lots of tourists paying top dollar to go and a stay Bar Harbor and Arcadia National park in summer. BGR is significantly closer than PWM.

Not sure what the airfares are, but probably high non-stop from DFW. But no shortage of folks who want to come to Bar Harbor in summer and are probably willing to pay a presmium to fly nonstop from the thriving DFW metro area, or connecting there from elsewhere in the Southwest. If you’re going up there in summer, you’re not going to find much lodging for less than $300 per night minimum. AA is probably trying to catch some of this leisure market.

Summer is the only time people want to come to Maine. Then it’s dead and frozen and dark for nine months. But they always come back in June and say how great it is here. Although three months of warm temps isn’t what I call Vacationland.

737Jason · Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:04 am

I don't mean to keep reverting this discussion back to MHT, but I was looking at the Spirit flights, and they don't seem very full, except for RSW. It is very concerning.

LotsaRunway · Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:08 am

737Jason wrote:
I don't mean to keep reverting this discussion back to MHT, but I was looking at the Spirit flights, and they don't seem very full, except for RSW. It is very concerning.

I find that the MHT market doesn’t seem too into paying for assigned seats, but maybe that will change once people experience NK. I have often noticed lots of unassigned seats on flights just days before and yet the flight ends up pretty full. The load statistics for MHT suggest to me that NK should do fine.

737Jason · Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:59 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
737Jason wrote:
I don't mean to keep reverting this discussion back to MHT, but I was looking at the Spirit flights, and they don't seem very full, except for RSW. It is very concerning.

I find that the MHT market doesn’t seem too into paying for assigned seats, but maybe that will change once people experience NK. I have often noticed lots of unassigned seats on flights just days before and yet the flight ends up pretty full. The load statistics for MHT suggest to me that NK should do fine.

You are right. I totally forgot about unassigned seats. The flights are PACKED now.

slcdeltarumd11 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:28 am

chrisnh wrote:
A curious route to me is AA’s DFW-BGR on the A319. Is there a particular corporate contract on either end making this viable? Is this a seasonal-only flight?

Dallas - Fort Worth - This route begins as a Saturday-only service on July 3 but then will change to daily from mid-August to Nov. 6.

“We’re eager to add service between Bangor and our Dallas-Fort Worth and Miami hubs, complementing existing service to Charlotte and Washington-Reagan,” said Brian Znotins, American’s Vice President of Network Planning. “As customers once again embrace travel, the great outdoors are at the top of their list.

Yes its weekends only in the summer then daily for the leaf peepers. Nothing related to business travel at all. It's leisure travel wanting to visit outdoors places in these covid times. Visiting outdoors destinations has boomed while cities are low demand. Look at how low NYC hotel prices have been this summer and places like Jackson Hole and Utah parks have had huge lines and reservations to try to keep up with all the demand. The airlines have to use their planes while business travel is super low still. That segment looks very very slow to return. Finding leisure routes is becoming more important and necessary. AA found a place to use these planes.

airlineworker · Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:48 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
A curious route to me is AA’s DFW-BGR on the A319. Is there a particular corporate contract on either end making this viable? Is this a seasonal-only flight?

Dallas - Fort Worth - This route begins as a Saturday-only service on July 3 but then will change to daily from mid-August to Nov. 6.

“We’re eager to add service between Bangor and our Dallas-Fort Worth and Miami hubs, complementing existing service to Charlotte and Washington-Reagan,” said Brian Znotins, American’s Vice President of Network Planning. “As customers once again embrace travel, the great outdoors are at the top of their list.

Yes its weekends only in the summer then daily for the leaf peepers. Nothing related to business travel at all. It's leisure travel wanting to visit outdoors places in these covid times. Visiting outdoors destinations has boomed while cities are low demand. Look at how low NYC hotel prices have been this summer and places like Jackson Hole and Utah parks have had huge lines and reservations to try to keep up with all the demand. The airlines have to use their planes while business travel is super low still. That segment looks very very slow to return. Finding leisure routes is becoming more important and necessary. AA found a place to use these planes.

AA providing all this service to BGR and yet they pull out of HVN, a much larger market. I don't get it.

FLYKTPA · Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:57 am

airlineworker wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
A curious route to me is AA’s DFW-BGR on the A319. Is there a particular corporate contract on either end making this viable? Is this a seasonal-only flight?

Dallas - Fort Worth - This route begins as a Saturday-only service on July 3 but then will change to daily from mid-August to Nov. 6.

“We’re eager to add service between Bangor and our Dallas-Fort Worth and Miami hubs, complementing existing service to Charlotte and Washington-Reagan,” said Brian Znotins, American’s Vice President of Network Planning. “As customers once again embrace travel, the great outdoors are at the top of their list.

Yes its weekends only in the summer then daily for the leaf peepers. Nothing related to business travel at all. It's leisure travel wanting to visit outdoors places in these covid times. Visiting outdoors destinations has boomed while cities are low demand. Look at how low NYC hotel prices have been this summer and places like Jackson Hole and Utah parks have had huge lines and reservations to try to keep up with all the demand. The airlines have to use their planes while business travel is super low still. That segment looks very very slow to return. Finding leisure routes is becoming more important and necessary. AA found a place to use these planes.

AA providing all this service to BGR and yet they pull out of HVN, a much larger market. I don't get it.

You compare the air service of both airports and it tells a much different story. Yeah HVN’s catchment area is probably much larger but it’s surrounded by more competition. Bangor actually being a tourist destination helps too.

EricBTV · Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:08 pm

Today BTV held an official groundbreaking and press conference on the Terminal Integration Project which will both create one central TSA checkpoint and offer more opportunity for future service expansion.

News Article & Video: https://www.mychamplainvalley.com/news/local-news/leahy-weinberger-celebrate-airport-expansion-with-groundbreaking-ceremony/
More Photos: https://www.instagram.com/p/CVBjsTfvA2I/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

slcdeltarumd11 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:57 am

One TSA check point will be a huge improvement for BTV. In 2019 pre pandemic both tsa lines backed up pretty back at times. This will really help improve the customer experience

mats01776 · Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:01 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
One TSA check point will be a huge improvement for BTV. In 2019 pre pandemic both tsa lines backed up pretty back at times. This will really help improve the customer experience

Am I missing something?
How does the integration of the two backed-up queues into one help the customer experience?
Unless the queues have different peak times, so one queue is long while the other is empty or vice versa.

IdlewildJFK · Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:24 am

mats01776 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
One TSA check point will be a huge improvement for BTV. In 2019 pre pandemic both tsa lines backed up pretty back at times. This will really help improve the customer experience

Am I missing something?
How does the integration of the two backed-up queues into one help the customer experience?
Unless the queues have different peak times, so one queue is long while the other is empty or vice versa.

Just a few off the top of my head:

Connecting pax not having to exit the secure area (I know, I’m sure it’s not many here)

Food and shopping locations open to all gates (including not yet built ones that may not have happened due to smaller traffic numbers but now become more viable)

Staffing efficiencies gained by TSA but not having to double up certain positions - or instead of say needing 2 specific jobs on each side they now can get by with 3 total - possibly leading to more lanes total available to be opened with the same staffing levels

A new checkpoint, designed and built post 9/11, will incorporate best practices for efficiency vs pre 9/11 ones that had smaller footprints

If there is a back up on one lane - say for a inspection of an item, there are more other lanes to take the overflow

Plus us as you said - if the peaks and dips of the current checkpoints didn’t line up perfectly, then it should smooth out with a consolidated one

Allows airlines that want to expand permanently to use an empty gate otherwise not available had that gate happened to be on other pier prior

Allows an airline with a temp need for an additional gate due to multiple unplanned aircraft at their gates at the same time (weather/mx issues), to flex into another gate if one is available but may not have not connected post security prior

I’m sure there are more but all these, including the minor ones, add up

mjgbtv · Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:01 pm

mats01776 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
One TSA check point will be a huge improvement for BTV. In 2019 pre pandemic both tsa lines backed up pretty back at times. This will really help improve the customer experience

Am I missing something?
How does the integration of the two backed-up queues into one help the customer experience?
Unless the queues have different peak times, so one queue is long while the other is empty or vice versa.

Different peak times do happen. The last time I flew from BTV (this was pre-COVID) we ended up using the South checkpoint for an AA flight from the North concourse thanks to the temporary post-security connector, and it probably saved us from missing our flight. However, that is a far from ideal solution.

mernest · Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:03 pm

mats01776 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
One TSA check point will be a huge improvement for BTV. In 2019 pre pandemic both tsa lines backed up pretty back at times. This will really help improve the customer experience

Am I missing something?
How does the integration of the two backed-up queues into one help the customer experience?
Unless the queues have different peak times, so one queue is long while the other is empty or vice versa.

There is a minimum number of TSOs needed to operate a single lane security checkpoint. However, it does not take twice as many TSOs to run two lanes. By consolidating the staffing of two single-lane checkpoints you have enough TSOs to run three or four lanes.

jplatts · Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:14 am

Here are the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factors for WN flights out of BDL, MHT, PWM, and PVD in July 2021:
BDL-BNA - 7769 passengers, 8586 seats, 90.48% load factor
BDL-BWI - 26893 passengers, 29222 seats, 92.03% load factor
BDL-DEN - 9542 passengers, 10402 seats, 91.73% load factor
BDL-MCO - 14290 passengers, 15351 seats, 93.09% load factor
BDL-MDW - 17031 passengers, 18256 seats, 93.29% load factor
BDL-TPA - 8733 passengers, 9540 seats, 91.54% load factor

BWI-MHT - 26755 passengers, 28744 seats, 93.08% load factor
MCO-MHT - 9763 passengers, 10345 seats, 94.37% load factor
MDW-MHT - 17095 passengers, 18365 seats, 93.08% load factor
MHT-TPA - 2383 passengers, 2574 seats, 92.58% load factor

BWI-PWM - 35135 passengers, 42241 seats, 83.18% load factor
MDW-PWM - 8806 passengers, 10067 seats, 87.47% load factor

BWI-PVD - 27362 passengers, 28857 seats, 94.82% load factor
MCO-PVD - 19969 passengers, 21234 seats, 94.04% load factor
MDW-PVD - 15132 passengers, 16387 seats, 92.34% load factor
PVD-RSW - 1444 passengers, 1573 seats, 91.80% load factor
PVD-TPA - 15706 passengers, 16972 seats, 92.54% load factor

tomaheath · Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:41 pm

PWM not so great compared to the rest.

chrisnh · Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:20 pm

PWM had 42,241 seats to BWI and PVD only had 28,857? Really?

I do wonder at times whether WN was well served by entering BOS. Yeah, I get the old saying, “We have to be there.” But is that really true? And at what cost? I guarantee that somewhere in the middle of WN headquarters someone is suggesting a re-focus BACK to the secondary airports. It was a winning strategy then and it can be again.

jplatts · Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:28 pm

chrisnh wrote:
PWM had 42,241 seats to BWI and PVD only had 28,857? Really?

I actually double-checked the numbers for both of these routes, and PWM actually did have more seats to BWI on WN in July 2021 than PVD did (based on the T-100 Domestic Segment data).

At least in the case of PVD, WN does not have to connect as many passengers through BWI with WN serving MCO and TPA nonstop from PVD and WN having more nonstop service to MDW from PVD.

PVD523 · Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:03 pm

chrisnh wrote:
PWM had 42,241 seats to BWI and PVD only had 28,857? Really?

I do wonder at times whether WN was well served by entering BOS. Yeah, I get the old saying, “We have to be there.” But is that really true? And at what cost? I guarantee that somewhere in the middle of WN headquarters someone is suggesting a re-focus BACK to the secondary airports. It was a winning strategy then and it can be again.

I'm not 100% sure but I believe PVD-BWI was a paltry 3x daily in July. I'm hoping this was only because of the staffing issues WN was experiencing. Obviously we're still dealing with COVID effects but I remember when this route was 12x daily!

jplatts · Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:11 pm

chrisnh wrote:
I do wonder at times whether WN was well served by entering BOS. Yeah, I get the old saying, “We have to be there.” But is that really true? And at what cost? I guarantee that somewhere in the middle of WN headquarters someone is suggesting a re-focus BACK to the secondary airports. It was a winning strategy then and it can be again.

Here were the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factors for STL-BOS/PVD on WN in Summer 2020:
STL-BOS - 20956 passengers, 63988 seats, 32.75% load factor
STL-PVD - 570 passengers, 3893 seats, 14.64% load factor

STL is an example of an market that can daily support nonstop service to BOS on WN but that might not be able to support nonstop service from PVD on WN. However, demand was significantly suppressed in Summer 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Can WN really make the return of PVD-STL nonstop service work (with much stronger demand and much better load factors than it was getting on the PVD-STL route in Summer 2020), or would WN likely struggle to make the return of PVD-STL nonstop service work (given the load factors and very little demand that was there in Summer 2020)?

WN was getting load factors of over 90% on BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/MCO/STL in July 2021, and the load factors of WN BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/STL were higher in July 2021 than in July 2019.

WN really needs to continue to serve BOS as
(a) demand is still there for WN service to BOS,
(b) MHT and PVD are too far from BOS to be viable alternatives to BOS for those traveling to the City of Boston or its inner suburbs with both MHT and PVD being more than 50 miles from BOS (different from the DFW vs. DAL, IAH vs. HOU, ORD vs. MDW, JFK vs. LGA, EWR vs. LGA, BWI vs. DCA, IAD vs. DCA, OAK vs. SFO, FLL vs. MIA, or PIE vs. TPA situations),
(c) many of the individuals traveling to the City of Boston, inner suburbs, and other parts of Greater Boston preferring to fly into BOS instead of MHT or PVD, and
(d) there are some destinations that can support WN nonstop service to BOS that might not be able to support WN nonstop service to MHT or PVD.

I have previously mentioned the possibility of WN re-adding DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service as WN was able to make both of these routes work after adding BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to dropping DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service.

WN re-adding PVD-BNA nonstop service is also a possibility with WN having recently re-added nonstop service to BNA from BDL and ISP in the Northeast along with BNA being one of the top destinations traveled to from BNA that is no longer served nonstop from PVD.

jvlmd81 · Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:17 pm

I honestly do not see WN growing much more at PVD. PVD will have to look more to Breeze to add new destinations from PVD. AA i do see them possibly adding DFW next summer. Does anyone know how AA did on PVD-MIA in winter19-20?

mats01776 · Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:15 pm

Thank you all for the explanations of why consolidating two separate security areas can be beneficial to the passengers by eliminating unnecessary duplication and overhead in maintaining multiple active security gates.

Much appreciated.

LCDFlight · Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:29 pm

airlineworker wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
A curious route to me is AA’s DFW-BGR on the A319. Is there a particular corporate contract on either end making this viable? Is this a seasonal-only flight?

Dallas - Fort Worth - This route begins as a Saturday-only service on July 3 but then will change to daily from mid-August to Nov. 6.

“We’re eager to add service between Bangor and our Dallas-Fort Worth and Miami hubs, complementing existing service to Charlotte and Washington-Reagan,” said Brian Znotins, American’s Vice President of Network Planning. “As customers once again embrace travel, the great outdoors are at the top of their list.

Yes its weekends only in the summer then daily for the leaf peepers. Nothing related to business travel at all. It's leisure travel wanting to visit outdoors places in these covid times. Visiting outdoors destinations has boomed while cities are low demand. Look at how low NYC hotel prices have been this summer and places like Jackson Hole and Utah parks have had huge lines and reservations to try to keep up with all the demand. The airlines have to use their planes while business travel is super low still. That segment looks very very slow to return. Finding leisure routes is becoming more important and necessary. AA found a place to use these planes.

AA providing all this service to BGR and yet they pull out of HVN, a much larger market. I don't get it.

Good point that deserves a reply. It is about accessibility and alternatives to jet travel. A flight to HVN doesn’t really solve people’s problems any better than flying and renting a car at a nearby airport. They also have bus lines to another bigger airport with nonstops to DCA, LAX and so on. This is a better solution for most people Than taking a multi stop flight out of HVN.

BGR is pretty remote. I drove there within past few years. It was a LONG drive from PWM, let alone Boston. If you are heading to Arcadia / Bar Harbor / Mount Desert Isle, BGR is your best option other than BHB itself, which is too small for major services I think. There aren’t good alternatives to just flying to that part of the country. It’s like Jackson Wyoming or something like that. Remote and not easy to drive to the next nearest major city. Maine is really big.

KBOS · Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:26 pm

PVD will have an unusual visitor this afternoon.(10/16) The Dallas Cowboys are currently inbound on an American 787-9 as AA9748. This could be the first 787 visit to Rhode Island or at least the first non diversion.

btvhopper · Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:03 pm

Sun Country to start flying from BTV-MSP 2x weekly starting next June. Don't know much about the airline but they must be encouraged by Frontier in the ULCC market. It'll be interesting to see if the new management at the airport and the ousting of Director Richards will shake airline's confidence in the airport at all.

I just hope that Sun Country will at least pay up to use a proper jet bridge. The arrangement the airport made with F9 (provide a discount to fees if passengers enplane on the tarmac) is an embarrassment.

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/sto ... 521173002/

BTVB6Flyer · Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:09 pm

MSP is interesting, does offer connections to a good chunk of their network, but timing on the MSP-BTV leg is so early in morning, it won’t allow connections so that could be an issue.

BTV finally gets MSP back after DL abandoned many years ago, I wonder if DL responds.

Also can see SY doing some 2022 winter routes, think MCO, RSW, TPA.

How’s the check in counter space right now?

B595 · Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:38 pm

Northwest flew MSP-BTV for some months in the 2000s as well (just months, I don’t think it was a full year). There’s a photo in the database of the Champlain Valley out the window of the NW DC-9 either during approach or departure.

I don’t remember when DL flew it, but as I recall it was a CRJ-200 and, like Sun Country, summer-only.

georgiabill · Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:30 pm

Have their been any indication on how NK is performing on it's MHT routes? Any chance of them considering a MHT-LAS route in the next few years?

wnflyguy · Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:40 pm

jplatts wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
I do wonder at times whether WN was well served by entering BOS. Yeah, I get the old saying, “We have to be there.” But is that really true? And at what cost? I guarantee that somewhere in the middle of WN headquarters someone is suggesting a re-focus BACK to the secondary airports. It was a winning strategy then and it can be again.

Here were the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factors for STL-BOS/PVD on WN in Summer 2020:
STL-BOS - 20956 passengers, 63988 seats, 32.75% load factor
STL-PVD - 570 passengers, 3893 seats, 14.64% load factor

STL is an example of an market that can daily support nonstop service to BOS on WN but that might not be able to support nonstop service from PVD on WN. However, demand was significantly suppressed in Summer 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Can WN really make the return of PVD-STL nonstop service work (with much stronger demand and much better load factors than it was getting on the PVD-STL route in Summer 2020), or would WN likely struggle to make the return of PVD-STL nonstop service work (given the load factors and very little demand that was there in Summer 2020)?

WN was getting load factors of over 90% on BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/MCO/STL in July 2021, and the load factors of WN BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/STL were higher in July 2021 than in July 2019.

WN really needs to continue to serve BOS as
(a) demand is still there for WN service to BOS,
(b) MHT and PVD are too far from BOS to be viable alternatives to BOS for those traveling to the City of Boston or its inner suburbs with both MHT and PVD being more than 50 miles from BOS (different from the DFW vs. DAL, IAH vs. HOU, ORD vs. MDW, JFK vs. LGA, EWR vs. LGA, BWI vs. DCA, IAD vs. DCA, OAK vs. SFO, FLL vs. MIA, or PIE vs. TPA situations),
(c) many of the individuals traveling to the City of Boston, inner suburbs, and other parts of Greater Boston preferring to fly into BOS instead of MHT or PVD, and
(d) there are some destinations that can support WN nonstop service to BOS that might not be able to support WN nonstop service to MHT or PVD.

I have previously mentioned the possibility of WN re-adding DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service as WN was able to make both of these routes work after adding BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to dropping DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service.

WN re-adding PVD-BNA nonstop service is also a possibility with WN having recently re-added nonstop service to BNA from BDL and ISP in the Northeast along with BNA being one of the top destinations traveled to from BNA that is no longer served nonstop from PVD.

Also what everyone keeps forgetting 2 Big things happen in BOS. One The BIG DIG was finished and it relieved a lot of traffic congestion getting to and from BOS airport. 2nd JetBlue moved in and turned BOS into a major focus city.
These 2 events together change the economics in the Boston Metropolitan area. The Big Dig brought back the convenience of using BOE while JetBlue brought CHEAPER fares than what where being offered at the alternate WN airports like PVD and MHT.
To stay competitive WN HAD to fly to BOS.

Enjoy or Don’t
Flyguy

slcdeltarumd11 · Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:53 am

btvhopper wrote:
Sun Country to start flying from BTV-MSP 2x weekly starting next June. Don't know much about the airline but they must be encouraged by Frontier in the ULCC market. It'll be interesting to see if the new management at the airport and the ousting of Director Richards will shake airline's confidence in the airport at all.

I just hope that Sun Country will at least pay up to use a proper jet bridge. The arrangement the airport made with F9 (provide a discount to fees if passengers enplane on the tarmac) is an embarrassment.

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/sto ... 521173002/

The tarmac enplanement is very common for frontier and allegiant. Allegiant did the same thing at BTV. If passengers cared that much they wouldnt fly frontier, but they seem to be doing well. They are a ULCC you get what you pay for

Richards did alot of great things for BTV. Like him or hate him as a person but he did move the airport alot in the right direction. Most airports BTVs size have seen increases in airfares and less service. BTV moved to lower fares, alot better flights and a much improved facility. The connected of the two piers so badly needed it isnt funny, the improved rental car facilities will help keep prices low and more cars in our market, and the new terminal space coming will be great. This is 2021 and BTV is punching way above its weight. This isn't 1990 we are not going to see 757 service to PIT. Having affordable airfares is really the goal at BTV and getting airlines like frontier and sun country and jetblue really helps keep the legacies in check. Once we get past covid and normal shedules i think BTV is in a way way better position then it is when Richards took over. Love or hate him as a person, but he did alot to improve the aging tired facility.

VS4ever · Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:04 am

Well with great thanks to uconn99, who had the missing data files. I've now recast the BDL airport numbers, back to 2007.
As there have been consolidations since 2007, I've combined the airlines as best i can to give a consistent picture across the years, so AA-US, DL-NW, UA-CO all go together.
There's analysis by airline rolled up to a consolidated picture as at September, for Month, QTD, YTD and Full Year and split by Enplane, Deplane, Combined and relative market shares and a bit more too.

Anyway, now in this format, we can keep this rolling. I am planning to go back and do from the aircraft side of things, as well in a similar vein, we shall see when i can do that.

For now, check this out and let me know what you think.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true

Thanks

uconn99 · Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:07 am

VS4ever wrote:
Well with great thanks to uconn99, who had the missing data files. I've now recast the BDL airport numbers, back to 2007.
As there have been consolidations since 2007, I've combined the airlines as best i can to give a consistent picture across the years, so AA-US, DL-NW, UA-CO all go together.
There's analysis by airline rolled up to a consolidated picture as at September, for Month, QTD, YTD and Full Year and split by Enplane, Deplane, Combined and relative market shares and a bit more too.

Anyway, now in this format, we can keep this rolling. I am planning to go back and do from the aircraft side of things, as well in a similar vein, we shall see when i can do that.

For now, check this out and let me know what you think.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true

Thanks

Much thanks your way for the impressive excel work! I am going to send an email to my contact at BDL in hopes of getting more data pre 2007 and will keep you posted!

lat41 · Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:04 pm

jplatts wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
I do wonder at times whether WN was well served by entering BOS. Yeah, I get the old saying, “We have to be there.” But is that really true? And at what cost? I guarantee that somewhere in the middle of WN headquarters someone is suggesting a re-focus BACK to the secondary airports. It was a winning strategy then and it can be again.

Here were the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factors for STL-BOS/PVD on WN in Summer 2020:
STL-BOS - 20956 passengers, 63988 seats, 32.75% load factor
STL-PVD - 570 passengers, 3893 seats, 14.64% load factor

STL is an example of an market that can daily support nonstop service to BOS on WN but that might not be able to support nonstop service from PVD on WN. However, demand was significantly suppressed in Summer 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Can WN really make the return of PVD-STL nonstop service work (with much stronger demand and much better load factors than it was getting on the PVD-STL route in Summer 2020), or would WN likely struggle to make the return of PVD-STL nonstop service work (given the load factors and very little demand that was there in Summer 2020)?

WN was getting load factors of over 90% on BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/MCO/STL in July 2021, and the load factors of WN BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/STL were higher in July 2021 than in July 2019.

WN really needs to continue to serve BOS as
(a) demand is still there for WN service to BOS,
(b) MHT and PVD are too far from BOS to be viable alternatives to BOS for those traveling to the City of Boston or its inner suburbs with both MHT and PVD being more than 50 miles from BOS (different from the DFW vs. DAL, IAH vs. HOU, ORD vs. MDW, JFK vs. LGA, EWR vs. LGA, BWI vs. DCA, IAD vs. DCA, OAK vs. SFO, FLL vs. MIA, or PIE vs. TPA situations),
(c) many of the individuals traveling to the City of Boston, inner suburbs, and other parts of Greater Boston preferring to fly into BOS instead of MHT or PVD, and
(d) there are some destinations that can support WN nonstop service to BOS that might not be able to support WN nonstop service to MHT or PVD.

I have previously mentioned the possibility of WN re-adding DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service as WN was able to make both of these routes work after adding BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to dropping DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service.

WN re-adding PVD-BNA nonstop service is also a possibility with WN having recently re-added nonstop service to BNA from BDL and ISP in the Northeast along with BNA being one of the top destinations traveled to from BNA that is no longer served nonstop from PVD.

Your PVD data comparison for STL is faulty and uninformed in that the flight was thrown in there virtually unannounced for a short term on the last minute. Before many found out that nonstop STL service existed, its run was all over. That is where a little local or regional knowledge helps.
Also know that upon entering the BOS market, the throngs of passengers that were to drop everything including the FF loyalties to fly WN did not materialize. Competition hammered them and the fares had to drop into the cellar. So too much service was stripped out from tidy operations at PVD and up at MHT where passengers were happy paying a modest premium even after "Big Dig"only to get Southwest beat up by B6 and DL at Boston.

chrisnh · Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:52 pm

lat41 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
I do wonder at times whether WN was well served by entering BOS. Yeah, I get the old saying, “We have to be there.” But is that really true? And at what cost? I guarantee that somewhere in the middle of WN headquarters someone is suggesting a re-focus BACK to the secondary airports. It was a winning strategy then and it can be again.

Here were the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factors for STL-BOS/PVD on WN in Summer 2020:
STL-BOS - 20956 passengers, 63988 seats, 32.75% load factor
STL-PVD - 570 passengers, 3893 seats, 14.64% load factor

STL is an example of an market that can daily support nonstop service to BOS on WN but that might not be able to support nonstop service from PVD on WN. However, demand was significantly suppressed in Summer 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Can WN really make the return of PVD-STL nonstop service work (with much stronger demand and much better load factors than it was getting on the PVD-STL route in Summer 2020), or would WN likely struggle to make the return of PVD-STL nonstop service work (given the load factors and very little demand that was there in Summer 2020)?

WN was getting load factors of over 90% on BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/MCO/STL in July 2021, and the load factors of WN BOS-BWI/MDW/DEN/BNA/STL were higher in July 2021 than in July 2019.

WN really needs to continue to serve BOS as
(a) demand is still there for WN service to BOS,
(b) MHT and PVD are too far from BOS to be viable alternatives to BOS for those traveling to the City of Boston or its inner suburbs with both MHT and PVD being more than 50 miles from BOS (different from the DFW vs. DAL, IAH vs. HOU, ORD vs. MDW, JFK vs. LGA, EWR vs. LGA, BWI vs. DCA, IAD vs. DCA, OAK vs. SFO, FLL vs. MIA, or PIE vs. TPA situations),
(c) many of the individuals traveling to the City of Boston, inner suburbs, and other parts of Greater Boston preferring to fly into BOS instead of MHT or PVD, and
(d) there are some destinations that can support WN nonstop service to BOS that might not be able to support WN nonstop service to MHT or PVD.

I have previously mentioned the possibility of WN re-adding DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service as WN was able to make both of these routes work after adding BOS-DEN nonstop service but prior to dropping DEN-MHT/PVD nonstop service.

WN re-adding PVD-BNA nonstop service is also a possibility with WN having recently re-added nonstop service to BNA from BDL and ISP in the Northeast along with BNA being one of the top destinations traveled to from BNA that is no longer served nonstop from PVD.

Your PVD data comparison for STL is faulty and uninformed in that the flight was thrown in there virtually unannounced for a short term on the last minute. Before many found out that nonstop STL service existed, its run was all over. That is where a little local or regional knowledge helps.
Also know that upon entering the BOS market, the throngs of passengers that were to drop everything including the FF loyalties to fly WN did not materialize. Competition hammered them and the fares had to drop into the cellar. So too much service was stripped out from tidy operations at PVD and up at MHT where passengers were happy paying a modest premium even after "Big Dig"only to get Southwest beat up by B6 and DL at Boston.

I agree 100%. Southwest not only is paying more to serve Logan (higher landing fees, longer taxi times means more fuel usage) but they have to knock their fares way down in order to compete. In the end it’s not the City of Boston, it’s the whole Boston market…a not inconsequential slice of which would see MHT favorably than they would BOS.

airbazar · Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:33 pm

chrisnh wrote:
I agree 100%. Southwest not only is paying more to serve Logan (higher landing fees, longer taxi times means more fuel usage) but they have to knock their fares way down in order to compete. In the end it’s not the City of Boston, it’s the whole Boston market…a not inconsequential slice of which would see MHT favorably than they would BOS.

That may be so but I have never found WN fares from BOS to be cheaper than anyone else.
My biggest gripe with WN is lack of assigned seating. I refuse to book a ticket if I don't know where I'm seating, especially so if I'm traveling with family and I don't know if we will be seating together, and absolutely more so in a Pandemic when I want to avoid close contact with strangers as much as possible,
Others may have an issue with the lack of non-stops, or the lack of amenities such as a lounges or first class. Some people may not even know WN exists because they don't show up on Internet booking engines like Kayak or Orbitz. Put all of these together and that could be a significant share of the market. Probably more so in Boston where the market is younger, more tech connected, and lacking a true dominant carrier there are plenty of other options to chose from. In other words, the WN product just seems to have left the train circa 1999 and never got back on. Seriously, other than the addition of inflight TV, has WN made any improvements to their product and service in the last 20 years? It's the same tired hard and soft product.

airlineworker · Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:40 pm

Avelo first HVN flight. https://www.nhregister.com/news/article ... 588463.php

737Jason · Fri Nov 05, 2021 2:11 am

I have some concern regarding NK at MHT. I know a few reliable sources at the airport, and they have informed me the flights are only carrying 50 people on average. This is worrisome, as that is obviously not profitable. I know it is not the busy season, but I don't feel the flights should be that empty. I have a bad feeling we could see them gone within 6 months to a year.

PVD523 · Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:58 am

737Jason wrote:
I have some concern regarding NK at MHT. I know a few reliable sources at the airport, and they have informed me the flights are only carrying 50 people on average. This is worrisome, as that is obviously not profitable. I know it is not the busy season, but I don't feel the flights should be that empty. I have a bad feeling we could see them gone within 6 months to a year.

Give it a little time. NK is most likely getting some form of revenue guarantee from MHT for an agreed upon time period. The airport will (hopefully) work very closely with NK to adjust their business plan based on future bookings. MHT badly needs this service so I'm sure they'll pull out all the stops to give it the best shot at success.

airbazar · Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:32 pm

PVD523 wrote:
737Jason wrote:
I have some concern regarding NK at MHT. I know a few reliable sources at the airport, and they have informed me the flights are only carrying 50 people on average. This is worrisome, as that is obviously not profitable. I know it is not the busy season, but I don't feel the flights should be that empty. I have a bad feeling we could see them gone within 6 months to a year.

Give it a little time. NK is most likely getting some form of revenue guarantee from MHT for an agreed upon time period. The airport will (hopefully) work very closely with NK to adjust their business plan based on future bookings. MHT badly needs this service so I'm sure they'll pull out all the stops to give it the best shot at success.

Humm... if no one is getting on the plane it's hard to make the argument that MHT badly needs this service.
The financial incentives seem to be for marketing and waived fees.
https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/n ... t-airlines
Funny, I live closer to MHT than to BOS and if it wasn't for a.net I wouldn't have a clue that Spirit flies to MHT. So much for all those marketing $$$. They also talk about "behavioral changes" for Spirit. That doesn't sound good. Good luck to MHT, they're going to need it on this one.

LotsaRunway · Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:38 pm

737Jason wrote:
I have some concern regarding NK at MHT. I know a few reliable sources at the airport, and they have informed me the flights are only carrying 50 people on average. This is worrisome, as that is obviously not profitable. I know it is not the busy season, but I don't feel the flights should be that empty. I have a bad feeling we could see them gone within 6 months to a year.

Slow season
Start-ups in new markets often start slowly
Lack of local name recognition and what there is was not great in recent press
People need time to change habits

Other airlines at MHT are running over 90% loads so I agree with the reply saying to give it some time. I'm sure the upcoming winter, holiday period and then school break seasons will drive loads upward. Once that is done, recognition will be there.

WNflyer1523 · Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:53 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
737Jason wrote:
I have some concern regarding NK at MHT. I know a few reliable sources at the airport, and they have informed me the flights are only carrying 50 people on average. This is worrisome, as that is obviously not profitable. I know it is not the busy season, but I don't feel the flights should be that empty. I have a bad feeling we could see them gone within 6 months to a year.

Slow season
Start-ups in new markets often start slowly
Lack of local name recognition and what there is was not great in recent press
People need time to change habits

Other airlines at MHT are running over 90% loads so I agree with the reply saying to give it some time. I'm sure the upcoming winter, holiday period and then school break seasons will drive loads upward. Once that is done, recognition will be there.

Agreed with this post. I'm sure they'll make it work.

If only that MCO flight didn't arrive in after midnight. Not a good choice for families with little kids.

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