uconn99 wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

well it's been an awful long time and frankly due to Covid, the numbers were so bad, i really lost interest, but I figured it was time to dust off the old abacus and post some new numbers. My first port of call was MHT, but they've pulled all their detail files, so not happening there any more in terms of me reporting. So.... down South we go to BDL and update their numbers instead.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true


It's quite fascinating what's happening to be honest. for obvious reasons, a comparative between 20 and 21 is pretty much pointless, so i'm going back to 19. The numbers are still way down, but the map right now has been redrawn between the carriers.

Data below is up to and including May 21 reports.

Month:
Total: 403,417 34.1% down over 2019, but the best month since Feb 20 and the start of all the lockdowns

Market Share Rankings

1. AA - 94,230 down 35% (ranking #1 for market share, now overtaken WN with 23.4% share, despite the 35% drop, AA have held their share of the overall pax market to within 0.3% from 19 to 21. In 2019 AA were ranked #2.

2. B6 - 76,376 Yep the Boys in Blue have also taken WN at this point, although it was super close. But B6 are one of the big movers increasing their share from 11.8% to 17.3% and carrying 4,100 more pax during the month. In 2019 B6 were ranked #4

3. WN - 75,097 well they aren't going away quietly, but it's definitely with a whimper. Down to 3rd, after a 48.7% decrease in passenger and a collapse in share from nearly 24% down to 18.6%, there was a song in the early 90's. "The only way is up", I feel WN are signing a different tune "The only way is down", they will be a big player, but they are not the elephant they once.

4. DL - 54,404 - BDL still pays some bills for the 800lb gorilla from Atlanta, but a 55% reduction from 19 and a 6% drop in market share means they are paying a lot less with these numbers. Been 3rd for so long, but no more and it's hard to see them coming back in any meaningful way any time soon. Discuss.

5. NK - 48,667 - the yellow banana's are busy, and one of the recovery success stories at BDL. 10,000 more pax than 2019 and almost a 6% increase in market share to 12.1% and a deserved kick up from 6th to 5th.

6. UA - 45,343, the globes pulled in an interesting set of numbers , 26% reduction from 61,000 in 2019, but because of results elsewhere, market share increased by 1.2%

The others. MX and SY are newcomers but on their first month of operation, so nothing too crazy, picking up a combined 1,500. and F9 with 7,698 is a 43% drop in counts and a 0.3% drop in market share

Can't wait to see what happens in June

YTD

The actual difference between 20 and 21 is a mere 6,000 pax across the board, albeit 21 is slightly short, we have a flip where Jan-March 2020 were higher, but Apr-May are running multiple times higher and here's where it gets interesting.
AA is #1 right now by only 5% from B6, however I do expect that gap to widen during the summer months.
B6 is beating WN by around 50,000, but WN is running a little higher in count in the last couple of months, whether they can overhaul that deficit, or want to, or have the capacity to, can be a talking point.
Hot on the heels comes DL, NK and UA, there's about 20K between the three of them. DL is in the lead with UA next, but NK is catching up fast beating UA by 1,400 and 3,300 in April and May respectively

Anyway, I've linked the file with the info in it above, so take a look. if you can't get to it, let me know and i'll change the settings,

Thank you for starting this up again! As a numbers geek I really look forward to your analysis for BDL, PVD, and other New England airports.

PVD will be next. I’m about 75% done with catching up on those. Although they tried to mess with me a bit by posting wrong YTD numbers on a few months so I’m having to recheck everything to be sure.

Will have to see if I can find anyone else to do at this point. BOS will come soon too, but that’s for a different thread

Thanks for the kind words, good to know that someone is looking at the info and analysis:) that’s what makes it worth doing.

Frontier seemed to really find a hit with Portland. To go to 9 destinations means they are doing very well. Frontier is not an airline to add routes unless these are really doing exceptionally well. The less then daily model is perfect for a smaller city and they are thriving in these times where its mostly leisure travel.

VS4ever wrote:

uconn99 wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

well it's been an awful long time and frankly due to Covid, the numbers were so bad, i really lost interest, but I figured it was time to dust off the old abacus and post some new numbers. My first port of call was MHT, but they've pulled all their detail files, so not happening there any more in terms of me reporting. So.... down South we go to BDL and update their numbers instead.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true


It's quite fascinating what's happening to be honest. for obvious reasons, a comparative between 20 and 21 is pretty much pointless, so i'm going back to 19. The numbers are still way down, but the map right now has been redrawn between the carriers.

Data below is up to and including May 21 reports.

Month:
Total: 403,417 34.1% down over 2019, but the best month since Feb 20 and the start of all the lockdowns

Market Share Rankings

1. AA - 94,230 down 35% (ranking #1 for market share, now overtaken WN with 23.4% share, despite the 35% drop, AA have held their share of the overall pax market to within 0.3% from 19 to 21. In 2019 AA were ranked #2.

2. B6 - 76,376 Yep the Boys in Blue have also taken WN at this point, although it was super close. But B6 are one of the big movers increasing their share from 11.8% to 17.3% and carrying 4,100 more pax during the month. In 2019 B6 were ranked #4

3. WN - 75,097 well they aren't going away quietly, but it's definitely with a whimper. Down to 3rd, after a 48.7% decrease in passenger and a collapse in share from nearly 24% down to 18.6%, there was a song in the early 90's. "The only way is up", I feel WN are signing a different tune "The only way is down", they will be a big player, but they are not the elephant they once.

4. DL - 54,404 - BDL still pays some bills for the 800lb gorilla from Atlanta, but a 55% reduction from 19 and a 6% drop in market share means they are paying a lot less with these numbers. Been 3rd for so long, but no more and it's hard to see them coming back in any meaningful way any time soon. Discuss.

5. NK - 48,667 - the yellow banana's are busy, and one of the recovery success stories at BDL. 10,000 more pax than 2019 and almost a 6% increase in market share to 12.1% and a deserved kick up from 6th to 5th.

6. UA - 45,343, the globes pulled in an interesting set of numbers , 26% reduction from 61,000 in 2019, but because of results elsewhere, market share increased by 1.2%

The others. MX and SY are newcomers but on their first month of operation, so nothing too crazy, picking up a combined 1,500. and F9 with 7,698 is a 43% drop in counts and a 0.3% drop in market share

Can't wait to see what happens in June

YTD

The actual difference between 20 and 21 is a mere 6,000 pax across the board, albeit 21 is slightly short, we have a flip where Jan-March 2020 were higher, but Apr-May are running multiple times higher and here's where it gets interesting.
AA is #1 right now by only 5% from B6, however I do expect that gap to widen during the summer months.
B6 is beating WN by around 50,000, but WN is running a little higher in count in the last couple of months, whether they can overhaul that deficit, or want to, or have the capacity to, can be a talking point.
Hot on the heels comes DL, NK and UA, there's about 20K between the three of them. DL is in the lead with UA next, but NK is catching up fast beating UA by 1,400 and 3,300 in April and May respectively

Anyway, I've linked the file with the info in it above, so take a look. if you can't get to it, let me know and i'll change the settings,

Thank you for starting this up again! As a numbers geek I really look forward to your analysis for BDL, PVD, and other New England airports.

PVD will be next. I’m about 75% done with catching up on those. Although they tried to mess with me a bit by posting wrong YTD numbers on a few months so I’m having to recheck everything to be sure.

Will have to see if I can find anyone else to do at this point. BOS will come soon too, but that’s for a different thread

Thanks for the kind words, good to know that someone is looking at the info and analysis:) that’s what makes it worth doing.

I'll add my thanks too! I look forward to seeing these numbers anytime they show up.
Does anyone still try to estimate yields?

VS4ever wrote:

PVD will be next. I’m about 75% done with catching up on those. Although they tried to mess with me a bit by posting wrong YTD numbers on a few months so I’m having to recheck everything to be sure.

Will have to see if I can find anyone else to do at this point. BOS will come soon too, but that’s for a different thread

Thanks for the kind words, good to know that someone is looking at the info and analysis:) that’s what makes it worth doing.

I think there are a good number of “lurkers” that appreciate your posts and others’. I know I do. I only comment on BTV, because that’s what I have personal connections to and some historical knowledge of. But I follow all the New England posts. PWM, HVN, all of them. I just wish there were some news out of the small markets, like BHB, PQI, Provincetown, MPV, etc.

So here we are with PVD.

Data below is up to and including Apr 21 reports.

Month:
Total: 194,336 42.4% down over 2019, but the best month since Feb 20 and the start of all the lockdowns

Market Share Rankings

1. WN- 77,694 down 41.4% , however due to drops elsewhere, they have maintained their market share at 40% and are still the clear leaders at the airport.

2. AA - 46,414 , down 42.4%, but have also maintained their market share at 23.9%,

3. B6 - overtaken DL - 29,738 , 1.5% down on 2019, biggest mover in the market share stakes up by 6.3%, they've certainly taken their shot here as others hav dialled back

4. F9 - 17,945 - Bet you thought you were going to see DL here, nope, F9 have grown their share by 4.2% since 2019 and are the only airline to actually increase their pax count year over year

5. UA - 12,366. slight drop in share 0.7%, but a 48% drop in pax is one of the most severe of airlines continuing ops during Covid (although they did drop for 1 month in 2020.

6. DL - 7,712, why is this so low? they only restarted ops in March, market share s a result has tanked to exceedingly low levels. 4% currently from 11% in 2019, going to take a lot to seem them get back to the head of the pack, only time will tell

The only other player at this point is G4, who's numbers don't really move the needle too much 2,400 in 2021, but have recovered most of their 2019 position and are only 18% in April


YTD: Total 485,057 (726,232 in 2020 and 1,212,968

So unlike BDL, PVD haven't published their May numbers, meaning we don't know how caught up they are like BDL. So for now, they are still well behind 2020, but the impact of Jan/Feb 2020 should be mitigated as new numbers appear and passenger counts increase.

1. WN - The 800lb gorilla at PVD is still holding strong with 188,611 and a 38.9% market share. their total counts have tanked horribly (469K in 2019 for example) but they are maintaining their grip on #1 status, and I don't see anyone taking it soon unless they pull out or AA do something extraordinary

2. AA - 123,944 actually increased their share by 0.5% over 2019, but again total counts have tanked (304K in 2019), this is blatantly obviously expected, but it just demonstrates the impact further of the crisis we have lived through.

3. B6 - 74,916 s the actual PVD winner YTD, they have caught up with their 2020 number (the only ones to do so) and have gained a 6% market share overall and a jump from 4 to 3 in the list following DL's collapse from pulling out for a while.

4. F9 - 40,427, another relative winner. While their total count has far from recovered (10K below 2020 at this point), they have gained share because again DL's departure for so long. 2.5% up here.

5. UA - 32,619 - another beneficiary of DL and the last of them, held share as a result, but again, 17K down on last year, so still not a pretty picture

6. DL - 14,311 - back 2 months, all i can say, at least they are back, we shall see what kind of numbers they put up for the rest of the year almost 9% market share loss, they surely will have to come back fighting to get that back, even in a crisis, can't think they want to be #6 at any airport.

7. G4 - 7,982 - they like their corner. market share up 0.6% over 2019 and only 1,300 total count down from 2020. They won't set the world alight, but with their model do they really want to?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true


Anyway, I've linked the file with the info in it above, so take a look. if you can't get to it, let me know and i'll change the settings,

When DL returned to PVD they came back with 2x 717s a day to ATL. I believe some days, Tuesdays and Wednesdays at least, were 1x daily. Probably why their numbers are so low. MSP started at the end of May and DTW at the beginning of June.

PVD was the #1 station in the entire DL network for load factor in May and just the other week they restored the 3rd ATL all on A320 bringing them back to pre covid levels of service. So I think DL will be back in their 3rd seat soon.

Avelo announces HVN Florida cities and frequencies. https://onemileatatime.com/avelo-airlines-new-haven/

20 mainline flights out of PWM today spread out between 7 different airlines, this is the most since pre COVID levels.

I'm surprised Avelo announcement isn't getting more excitement here. It's going to be a big deal for a lot of people in CT

Interesting news coming out of Worcester (ORH). Delta adding new service from ORH to New York LaGuardia in the fall.
https://spectrumnews1.com/ma/worcester/ ... er-airport

BitFly wrote:

Interesting news coming out of Worcester (ORH). Delta adding new service from ORH to New York LaGuardia in the fall.
https://spectrumnews1.com/ma/worcester/ ... er-airport

Wow!!! This one is very interesting! They pulled out of MHT and restarted ORH? And to LGA of all places? I would have sent 1-2xCRJ to DTW or ATL myself. LGA is a short hop competing with a 2 1/2 hour drive. This has MassPort fingerprints all over it as DL wants to expand at BOS. So now I have to ask, did MassPort "encourage" the DL MHT pullout?

LotsaRunway wrote:

BitFly wrote:

Interesting news coming out of Worcester (ORH). Delta adding new service from ORH to New York LaGuardia in the fall.
https://spectrumnews1.com/ma/worcester/ ... er-airport

Wow!!! This one is very interesting! They pulled out of MHT and restarted ORH? And to LGA of all places? I would have sent 1-2xCRJ to DTW or ATL myself. LGA is a short hop competing with a 2 1/2 hour drive. This has MassPort fingerprints all over it as DL wants to expand at BOS. So now I have to ask, did MassPort "encourage" the DL MHT pullout?

i am sure the public will never know. But Massport has a massive vested interest in pushing ORH because the investments made far outweigh the revenues that can be earned (CAT III upgrade alone saw to that).
Before Covid, we just got to having AA/B6 and DL online, and I am sure Massport are making their feelings known about coming back.

The curious one here is LGA, rather than restarting DTW. B6 will be re-starting JFK, so now there's potentially 2 NYC options going to happen, the networks are going to have provide differing connection options to survive, as otherwise is there really the market to support both. I wasn't sure about DTW when DL began that. I agree ATL would make much more sense.
if the world returns, I can see B6 to JFK and MCO, DL to LGA and ATL and maybe AA will show up again with PHL (or maybe not if this gets grouped into the NEA with B6)

But what about the wildcards, could we see one of the non-daily airlines (Avelo, Allegiant etc. ) show up as well. Massport i believe completed Gates 3 and 4, so there is a no problem with space, it's a question of if, they build it, will they come. Well they built it, will they still come.

The selling point about ORH, is the easy to fly set up the airport has. If you live within the proximity of the airport, which about 1 million people live, it is much easier to fly out of ORH to New York and connect somewhere else; than to drive to Boston Logan thru major traffic and construction. BOS is under renovations and it has been a major headache flying out of there. Plus going thru TSA at ORH is very easy, with basically no lines, compared to BOS which the lines are thru the roof.

One of the factors that drives the demand down at ORH, is the bad airline schedule that have been added a few times from what I see. B6 is adding a good schedule and frequency out of ORH, so I guess we'll see how the public supports it. Now, B6 not adding direct flights to MCO is a little interesting.

Regarding other airlines, Breeze or Avelo would be a good option with 3-4 flights a week, even though Breeze stated that it did not have any plans at the moment for ORH. AA being partners with B6, might present a problem.

VS4ever wrote:

The curious one here is LGA, rather than restarting DTW. B6 will be re-starting JFK, so now there's potentially 2 NYC options going to happen, the networks are going to have provide differing connection options to survive, as otherwise is there really the market to support both. I wasn't sure about DTW when DL began that. I agree ATL would make much more sense.
if the world returns, I can see B6 to JFK and MCO, DL to LGA and ATL and maybe AA will show up again with PHL (or maybe not if this gets grouped into the NEA with B6)

DTW makes little sense in the Winter. This is all about Florida connections IMO and DL has a brand new terminal at LGA, coming online.
ATL is probably too long of a flight and therefore a riskier investment at this point. Increased Covid infections and NYC's increasing restrictions will probably put a damper on non-essential/leisure travel for a while so I see this as being less towards p-2-p demand and more towards connections.

Portlander wrote:

20 mainline flights out of PWM today spread out between 7 different airlines, this is the most since pre COVID levels.

I wonder if this is a 1-off day with that level with the overnight camps ending for the season.

Thursday has been PWM's busiest day throughout the summer due to Frontier's busy schedule along with SunCountry's flight to MSP. Portland has been averaging around 16-18 mainline flights daily and this will continue through October. I was just pleased to see the airport reach 20 today which is small time when compared to BOS, BDL and PVD. The most I remember pre COVID was 23 mainline flights during a single summer day in Vacationland.

Portlander wrote:

Thursday has been PWM's busiest day throughout the summer due to Frontier's busy schedule along with SunCountry's flight to MSP. Portland has been averaging around 16-18 mainline flights daily and this will continue through October. I was just pleased to see the airport reach 20 today which is small time when compared to BOS, BDL and PVD. The most I remember pre COVID was 23 mainline flights during a single summer day in Vacationland.

It is impressive what an airport the size of PWM has been doing this summer with the amount of non stop destinations and mainline flights. As of typing this email, PWM is at 20 mainline departures and PVD is at 23, each look to have 1 more this evening. I am compiling a full list of departures on mainline, regional and cargo out of BDL, PVD, and PWM for today and should be able to post the breakdown later this evening.

PWM will not impress anyone with it's two FEDEX (757) flights and one Wiggins puddle jumper for cargo capabilities, that crown goes to MHT as far as the king of northern New England goes! I did count 30 different airport destinations available out of Portland throughout the week this summer with half of of them having mainline options. They are: CLT, PHL, DFW, ORD, MIA, LGA, DCA, BOS, ATL, MSP, DTW, JFK, MCO, MLB, SRQ, HPN, DEN, RSW, MYR, RDU, BWI, MDW, IAD, EWR, CVG, CLE, CMH, IND, MKE and PIT. Most of these destinations will disappear during the long winter months but PWM isn't alone when it comes to airports with a high concentration of leisure travel. Seasonal service is better than no service!

Departure breakdown for BDL / PVD / PWM for 8/19/2021. Google sheets link for breakout below.

Mainline-

BDL- 59
PVD- 25
PWM- 21

Regional-

PWM- 35 (Includes 5x Cape Air)
BDL- 21 (2x ERJ)
PVD- 19 (4x CRJ, also includes 1x Cape Air)

Cargo (Not including Wiggins)-

BDL- 16
PVD- 4
PWM- 2

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

uconn, I was surprised to see that PWM was not that far behind PVD in mainline flights and am stunned to see that it has more flights during the one day snapshot you put together.. The big difference is that PVD retains a lot of it's mainline and non mainline service throughout the winter where PWM does not.

Portlander wrote:

uconn, I was surprised to see that PWM was not that far behind PVD in mainline flights. The big difference is that PVD maintains a lot of it's mainline service throughout the winter where PWM does not.

I was also surprised, during normal times PVD would definitely have more mainline service. What may be more surprising is total departures for mainline & regional puts PWM ahead. Total seat count may be a slightly different.

uconn99 wrote:

Portlander wrote:

Thursday has been PWM's busiest day throughout the summer due to Frontier's busy schedule along with SunCountry's flight to MSP. Portland has been averaging around 16-18 mainline flights daily and this will continue through October. I was just pleased to see the airport reach 20 today which is small time when compared to BOS, BDL and PVD. The most I remember pre COVID was 23 mainline flights during a single summer day in Vacationland.

It is impressive what an airport the size of PWM has been doing this summer with the amount of non stop destinations and mainline flights. As of typing this email, PWM is at 20 mainline departures and PVD is at 23, each look to have 1 more this evening. I am compiling a full list of departures on mainline, regional and cargo out of BDL, PVD, and PWM for today and should be able to post the breakdown later this evening.

Its been many years since I have been to Portland and I am surprised at the level of service PWM now has. I don't how the population base can support such a level of service, but it must be working.

Portland's CSA now has 651K (2020 Census) which includes the Lewiston-Auburn area. In reality, PWM's catchment area extends all the way to Augusta and probably beyond until you have to make an adult decision whether to fly out of BGR because of a shorter drive but settle for fewer airlines and destination choices.

B595 wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

PVD will be next. I’m about 75% done with catching up on those. Although they tried to mess with me a bit by posting wrong YTD numbers on a few months so I’m having to recheck everything to be sure.

Will have to see if I can find anyone else to do at this point. BOS will come soon too, but that’s for a different thread

Thanks for the kind words, good to know that someone is looking at the info and analysis:) that’s what makes it worth doing.

I think there are a good number of “lurkers” that appreciate your posts and others’. I know I do. I only comment on BTV, because that’s what I have personal connections to and some historical knowledge of. But I follow all the New England posts. PWM, HVN, all of them. I just wish there were some news out of the small markets, like BHB, PQI, Provincetown, MPV, etc.

Well I don't have much news... but what i do have are, well yet more stats . Here's a quick view of the main Mass airports (not BOS or ORH) and their numbers for May 2021 and YTD 2021 from T-100, gives a rough idea of what's going on this year. In an effort to get a bit more data out there, i'm not going back and doing a full review over years. Once i've got the basics done, i will go back and update. Anyway. enjoy for ACK, BED, EWB, HYA, PVC and MVY.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true

I will be doing a similar set up for the other New England states. Coming soon

the PWM numbers are skewed because of all the covid-driven summer seasonal service. UA basically made PWM a focus city this summer. tons of discussion upthread when the routes were announced.

The numbers may be skewed but I doubt any airport would turn down an opportunity to be a summer focus city for United and the enplanements still count. As I mentioned earlier, seasonal service is better than no service and if a few of those routes were profitable they might return next year.

From what I’ve seen elsewhere, UA’s PWM-Midwest routes aren’t doing astoundingly well. I would be surprised if any of those routes returned next summer.

Not surprised due to 6 different destinations, maybe United should have trimmed it down to three options and got rid of PIT, CLE and maybe CVG. Indiana and Wisconsin are two new states not served by PWM and CMH is the hottest of the Ohio cities on the list, tough call!

I Just happened to be reading an article on Breeze, and Neelman stated "We have airports lined up for blocks" in regards to new airports to be served, and it got me thinking. What airports in the Northern New England area could we see there presence?

tphuang wrote:

I'm surprised Avelo announcement isn't getting more excitement here. It's going to be a big deal for a lot of people in CT

I agree its a huge deal, its the timing.

Lots of people are worried about "delta" and travel is kind of a luxury thing and something people need to do because they are stir crazy. Masses don't seem really excited about travel, they were but that excitement is fading after this summers far from smooth experience and news reports. When the pandemic is over, i think Avelo will absolutely crush it out of CT. People will still value smaller airports and N/S flights so they will do well.

Little about BTV’s director Gene Richards has been in the news since he was placed on leave in July; here is a bit of an update:
https://news.google.com/articles/CBMieG ... id=US%3Aen

BDL released June 2021 numbers this week, here is the breakdown below:

Airline / June 2021 / June 2019 / % Change

Domestic-

AA- 108,251 / 139,445 / (22.37%)
B6- 93,225 / 69,154 / +34.89%
DL- 80,828 / 126,077 / (35.89%)
WN- 77,245 / 114,630 / (32.61%)
NK- 40,033 / 36,758 / +8.9%
UA- 31,735 / 65,387 / (51.47%)
F9- 14,995 / 13,219 / +13.44%
MX- 2,256
SY- 1,661

International-

B6- 8,188 (included in above number)
DL- 474 (No CUN flights, must have been a couple diversions)

Total-

2021- 450,422 (22.66%)
2019- 582,381

[threeid][/threeid]

Portlander wrote:

The numbers may be skewed but I doubt any airport would turn down an opportunity to be a summer focus city for United and the enplanements still count. As I mentioned earlier, seasonal service is better than no service and if a few of those routes were profitable they might return next year.

No one ever expected these to come back. These are ways to use planes and possibly profit off the outdoor rec boom during covid. Once covid is over these planes will be needed on business routes. Those business routes are flying in super low frequencies right now as demand is so low. When people want to return to cities or business travel is back they won't be flying these routes

Interesting that B6 has jumped to the number 2 spot at BDL and within striking distance of the top spot. DL isn’t far from falling to number 4. From what I’ve seen BDL has been a strong performer this year load factor wise (both BDL and PVD were in the top 10 LF stations for AA UA DL and WN), I assume it has a lot to do with more affluent leisure traffic that’s used to working in/out of NYC and what the long term holds.

Piedmont500 wrote:

Little about BTV’s director Gene Richards has been in the news since he was placed on leave in July; here is a bit of an update:
https://news.google.com/articles/CBMieG ... id=US%3Aen

Where's the update? This isn't any update. Just the municipal union trying to squeeze out some attention for themselves. As far as I can tell there is still zero information and facts relating to this scandal, no?

Those BDL numbers really show how much business travel has been whacked by the shift from legacies to ULCC/LCC. Leisure travel can more-than-make up for it in terms of straight Pax numbers, but not profit or even shear dollar value. Even "affluent" leisure travels as described by another poster are much more price-sensitive than businessmen booking last-minute flights to Dallas or SFO on their corporate credit cards.

Legacies will have to change their business model and pricing structures if they can't count on business travel effectively subsidizing ticket prices for everyone else. I for one know my company is going to be much, much more frugal with corporate travel policy moving forwards after seeing the savings from travel budgets over the last 18 months.

btvhopper wrote:

Those BDL numbers really show how much business travel has been whacked by the shift from legacies to ULCC/LCC. Leisure travel can more-than-make up for it in terms of straight Pax numbers, but not profit or even shear dollar value. Even "affluent" leisure travels as described by another poster are much more price-sensitive than businessmen booking last-minute flights to Dallas or SFO on their corporate credit cards.

Legacies will have to change their business model and pricing structures if they can't count on business travel effectively subsidizing ticket prices for everyone else. I for one know my company is going to be much, much more frugal with corporate travel policy moving forwards after seeing the savings from travel budgets over the last 18 months.

I find it impressive how much WN got whacked compared to the growth of F9 and NK. This really emphasizes how price sensitive the market and how WN's prices, at least at BDL, are not all that competitive compared to the ULCCs. The B6 growth has got to be an outlier for the airline due to strategic growth for B6 at BDL. I think they added capacity at BDL to capitalize on the reductions of others.

Long term, B6 is looking to be the airline of choice in CT. I think JFK-BDL will be added in the next few months. They want to capture some of that lucrative TATL money. They are not just after leisure money.

tphuang wrote:

Long term, B6 is looking to be the airline of choice in CT. I think JFK-BDL will be added in the next few months. They want to capture some of that lucrative TATL money. They are not just after leisure money.

I think that will add it not so much for the TATL but rather to unlock the rest of the B6 network. Heck even if 9K adds BDL-BOS/JFK that would unlock the full B6 network to allow them to be more competitive against DL/AA.

RL757PVD wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Long term, B6 is looking to be the airline of choice in CT. I think JFK-BDL will be added in the next few months. They want to capture some of that lucrative TATL money. They are not just after leisure money.

I think that will add it not so much for the TATL but rather to unlock the rest of the B6 network. Heck even if 9K adds BDL-BOS/JFK that would unlock the full B6 network to allow them to be more competitive against DL/AA.

Sure, but TATL will be an increasingly large part of that connection going forward. Same with PVD and possibly ALB. All these northeast markets that did not have JFK service before will probably get them as they get more slots as part of the NEA. Keep in mind that feeds from these places will be able to connect to AA (+ other partner) flights as well as B6 flights. I don't know how much they can actually make on these flights, but they need to do something to capture more customers in the area between NYC/Boston. Right now, someone in CT can easily fly JetBlue to Florida, but not many other places unless they are willing to drive to JFK or BOS.

Well now there’s some real news regarding the BTV scandal. It’s getting ugly—the downside of New England’s most politicized airport... https://vtdigger.org/2021/08/27/burling ... signation/

Looks like aa is resuming it's once a day phl orh service in November.

btvhopper wrote:

Well now there’s some real news regarding the BTV scandal. It’s getting ugly—the downside of New England’s most politicized airport... https://vtdigger.org/2021/08/27/burling ... signation/

Perhaps his replacement will be someone who actually has a background in aviation.

tphuang wrote:

Looks like aa is resuming it's once a day phl orh service in November.

Not listed on the employee non-rev site. Checked November and December.

tphuang wrote:

https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/

One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.

What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.

Does this announcement mean that something may also be in store for HVN service resumption as well???


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CairnterriAIR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/

One daily flight on a small regional jet.
An 8pm arrival time into PHL.

What is this flight going to connect with? Honestly this sounds like MassPort reminding AA how nice the gate spaces they get to use in Boston are and that service to Worcester would “compliment” it nicely. And this is the airline’s response.

There is a price to having a large presence in bos.

tphuang wrote:

https://thisweekinworcester.com/american-airlines-worcester-082821/

Thanks, the problem is by the time the return flight gets to PHL, very few if any connections are available. They did the same thing when they returned to HVN at first then later improved the times to arrive earlier in PHL.