deltairlines wrote:Cboyle wrote:Is MHT going to get a new airline anytime soon?
Once the Big Dig was done and it was a breeze getting to BOS from 93/2/3 plus JetBlue bringing airfares down significantly (and adding more frequencies) really pulled that traffic right back to BOS.
I often hear this and find that only occasionally, during the right days and weather conditions does it really make it “a breeze.” Quite often, the lower deck backs up before you even get to the tunnels. Sooner or later that is going to need serious work and that will be a game changer for a few years.
deltairlines wrote:Cboyle wrote:deltairlines wrote:
As I've mentioned on this thread, who would go in there?
Delta just pulled out and I don't see them in a hurry to go back, especially as they've invested a ton into Boston. Southwest has Florida well covered to the point that anything a JetBlue/Spirit/Frontier would add would really be superfluous, especially as they're in Boston. Allegiant already has PSM and BOS.
As I've said before, MHT's problem is that a huge chunk of it's catchment area (which is mostly south of the airport) overlaps with BOS. Getting to BOS during MHT's peak
in the mid-2000s was a massive pain in the neck for these folks - the Big Dig was still going on and it was not a fun experience trying to get to/from BOS if coming from 93 North, Route 2 or Route 3. Add in that there was very little LCC presence (B6 didn't get to BOS until 2004 and then ramped up over the next four years) and that made it ripe for MHT to flourish.
Once the Big Dig was done and it was a breeze getting to BOS from 93/2/3 plus JetBlue bringing airfares down significantly (and adding more frequencies) really pulled that traffic right back to BOS.
Maybe breeze would go here? There is demand for B6 and F9 too...
Breeze is a possibility. Gate space is getting a bit tight in Boston now (I don't think there's really any available gates in BOS right now; granted they aren't being fully utilized but as traffic returns that will fill them up); PVD also looks maxed out on gate space; I believe PWM is also pretty much full now too. That leaves MHT and ORH for serving the Boston area, and MHT is much more appealing than ORH for numerous reasons - namely road connections getting to the airport (MHT shines here, ORH is a nightmare) and runway (though 7000 ft at ORH is more than enough for E190s and A220s).
I don't see B6 happening. They'd be flying to Florida, and WN covers that fine from MHT. With the new AA deal, B6's focus is going to be more New York/Newark flying, rounding out what they can do in Los Angeles and looking for other opportunities - MHT is not one of these.
Same with Frontier - look at what they're doing in BOS and PVD - it's mostly Florida, which is what MHT would be getting.
The two issues with Florida flying from MHT is that Southwest is already there with MCO, TPA and (in-season) FLL, so you're fighting against that. Second, as I keep saying, MHT's population base is to the south of it. Fares from BOS are similar (in many cases, less...some by $150+ round trip) than MHT on the Florida routes. For a family of four, that $600 adds up - even when MHT is $14/day for parking and BOS is $28 for some of the offsite lots. Add in the fact that frequencies out of MHT are minimal (1-2x/day) compared to out of BOS where there's at least 10 nonstops a day to MCO/TPA/FLL/MIA/etc. and it becomes even more in demand.
PVD naturally can support more of this service than MHT - not only is Providence a much larger city than Manchester (Providence's MSA is 1.6M, Manchester's is 400k), but also geographically for these folks, to get to BOS is driving north for an hour to fly south; for MHT, to get to BOS you drive south to fly south, so you're at least going in the right direction.
Could MHT support more Florida flying? In normal times, sure. But you better have a better fare than BOS (which is tough enough to do) and you better be flying more than once a day - otherwise the natural market will have people in the Merrimack Valley from Haverhill up to Nashua continue to keep choosing BOS.
A few comments on this post. PVD definitely has a larger catchment area and corporate base, but going by MSA populations in New England is almost meaningless since there are so many dividing up the population. There is a whole lot of population in the MHT catchment area than just in the Manchester MSA. That said, competition at BOS is just at another level than at any of the other New England airports. Fares and nonstops are ripe for the taking. MHT started its death spiral when B6 got big enough to have pricing clout that cut away the WN edge that MHT had for several years. Then came consolidation which opened up gates at BOS, and opened the doors to ULCCs, which was like pouring gasoline on a fire. Connectivity and fares at BOS couldn’t be beat. MHT lost passengers and the previous airport management decided to raise fees at MHT. Airlines, pressed to save money where they can, cut back more at MHT to better reduce costs and compete where they had to fight for the big population. Airline fees at MHT increased again and parking rates went up too. Not a smart decision because it only escalated the exodus to BOS. Airlines resigned themselves to offering token service to hubs at fares that offer some level of profit. I fully believe, MHT would fare much better with more nonstops at a competitive fare. Nobody offers much of that now. Unless on sale, WNs fares out of MHT are generally higher than the fares they charge for the same destinations from BOS.
Oh, and Florida from MHT would also do much better with competitive fares. FLL is wide open except for maybe one or two Saturdays in the spring. MCO could handle more and I think There may be another option or two with something smaller than 143 seats. PVD , BDL, and PWM have a lot of capacity to Florida thanks to F9 and it’s market stimulation. I also don’t think B6 is out of consideration for MHT. There is opportunity there but I don’t think they find the cost of opportunity balances just yet. It is getting closer IMHO.
ChrisNH38 wrote:MHT might get Breeze, but I think management there is resigned to it being more attractive as a cargo airport for Amazon Prime. The building announced a couple weeks ago (which will handle three wide-body aircraft) is clearly for them, inasmuch as FedEx and UPS have their own operations. There are Amazon distribution centers sprouting up or on the drawing board within proximity of MHT, so these dots are easy to connect.
As for passengers, it just seems that there's an imbalance of southbound service versus westbound service. The whole world doesn't want to go to Florida. If you want to head west, MHT needs more than MDW (itself a cold-weather place) to connect. PHX-DEN-LAS are three cities WN flew nonstop from MHT, and they pulled all three. Even one of those returning would be a huge help.
Yes and yes, MHT is focusing on cargo because they can win there and reduce costs for all airlines. In the long haul, and winning there will once again make the airport more cost competitive for airline operations. I also agree that people seem willing to use MHT for north south flights but not to the west. It might have to do with the nonstop issue. Once COVID is behind us more and airport costs come down some more, I could see DEN and/or LAS being restarted by WN. F9 or Breeze could start DEN on day one if they came to town.
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:MHT might be a good choice for breeze because I don't think they would do the southwest destinations. They would find the highest o&d cities not Florida or Baltimore or Midway. Breeze could maybe get people driving to Boston not southwest customers.
MHT is a tough spot. Fares at BOS and BTV are almost always lower unless your going to Florida.
??? MHT is a WN destination. If Breeze avoided WN cities then they would be leaving a lot on the table. I think they want places that can be stimulated by nonstop service at a reasonable price. They could easily do that at MHT, but almost every meaningful market out of BOS is already connected.