GSP psgr wrote:

Let me try to spitball as to why PIT may be lagging IND/CLE a bit:

1) Pittsburgh's economy has a lot more ties to the BOS-WAS corridor. The Eastern Seaboard megalopolis has been by far the worst hit by the effects of COVID. This especially impacts travel when it comes to banking and finance. My brother works for Bank of America and reports that business travel for that sector is essentially zilch. The other three markets are much more heavily tied to the Midwest and are somewhat more Chicago than New York oriented; it's not so much that the Midwest has held up great, it's that the East got especially hammered.

2) I'd also guess that education travel is also almost completely cratered; that's a relatively higher share for Pittsburgh when compared to Indianapolis and Cleveland.

3) Pittsburgh also has more oil/gas ties to DFW and IAH than Indianapolis does for certain and probably more than Cleveland. Until very recently, that sector also got completely trucked by COVID.

Add those together, and I'm pretty certain that most of the relative decline is based on structural rather than political factors.

Fair point on your first point, I'm not gonna argue the connection to BOS/NYC but I'll disagree on your other two points. Spring break travel was really the only bright spot during this whole thing but here again PIT lagged. Look at the amount of short notice Florida additions poured in to IND for example. Its no comparison. The oil and gas industry actually took a dive 3-4 years ago. If anything the industry has managed some minimal growth over the past year. But here again, WN keeps pushing back our PIT-HOU/DAL flights while they are already restored at IND (and with no oil and gas in IND). This is in addition to UA's IAH flights which are present in all the markets.

A ~40% deficit isn't exactly lagging by "a bit" either. That's pretty huge actually. Even if we put the percentage aside and take the raw numbers during this depressed time, lagging by 80,000-100,000 passengers a month adds up to about a million passengers for the year. During good times it took PIT 2-3 years to grow by a million passengers. So I think all this really does come down to the local economy. Pittsburgh is ranking near the bottom again with job growth and it is still losing population... and the reasons behind that are very much political.

Back to the oil and gas industry for a moment, a silver lining might be some growth in the natural gas sector (which benefits PIT) if crude prices trend upward which I imagine will be the case under this administration.

GSP psgr wrote:

I'm not arguing that the relative traffic declines aren't there, just that they're more complex and nuanced than being driven solely due to political decisions.

Exactly. And as far as education traffic goes, I'm thinking conferences, seminars, working groups, all of which are very academia-heavy (and I include research outfits such as UPMC research here, not just universities). We get a lot of academics in SDO (standards development organization) working groups and all the ones I know about have prohibited face-to-face throughout the pandemic. ISO has prohibited face-to-face through June, INCITS in the US through the end of the year. We're not talking about student traffic, although I'd imagine that quite a bit of grad student travel has all been zeroed out.

I'll add another thing, which is that the local population is older and I strongly suspect much less prone to taking a chance on travel that's not absolutely mandatory than a younger population.

Just blaming it all on closures will get you the wrong answer.

This is a great website:

https://pittsburghquarterly.com/article ... rgh-today/

Filtering through some of the data we can see how Pittsburgh is doing:
https://pittsburghquarterly.com/indicat ... ob-growth/

and

https://pittsburghquarterly.com/indicat ... ment-rate/

Before the pandemic Pittsburgh was middle of the pack, now we are near the bottom regarding unemployment. The second chart is a few months outdated, Feb 2021 unemployment in Pittsburgh increased to 7.5%. Look at where PIT's competitors are. Not sure why Columbus is not included. With a significantly higher unemployment rate in Pittsburgh now it is undeniable that this will affect the region's propensity for travel.

Yes, I do see Cleveland is also in the tank. They have been there for years so why is their airport doing so much better? With a regional population of 4 million I've long thought CLE should be pulling in about 14 million passengers (pre-COVID) but for most of the post hub era they have been down to PIT's level of service. Cleveland has long been an economic disaster. But they may very well start to pull away even more now, the ULCCs have found good success there and UA seems to have a renewed interest.

The US Census Bureau reports that in 2019 Pittsburgh's MSA was larger than Cleveland's (see below). I can tell you that I have never seen more construction and help wanted signs in my 64 years of living in NE Ohio. I'm more used to companies moving out or going broke but now they are moving in or expanding. Homes sell in days - daughter just bought a starter home in an inner ring suburb for $35,000 over it's asking price. 36 offers on the home.

27 Pittsburgh, PA MSA 2,317,600 2,356,285 −1.64% Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV CSA
28 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
29 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
30 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN MSA
31 Kansas City, MO-KS MSA
32 Columbus, OH MSA
33 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
34 Cleveland-Elyria, OH MSA 2,048,449 2,077,240 −1.39% Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA

MohawkWeekend wrote:

The US Census Bureau reports that in 2019 Pittsburgh's MSA was larger than Cleveland's (see below). I can tell you that I have never seen more construction and help wanted signs in my 64 years of living in NE Ohio. I'm more used to companies moving out or going broke but now they are moving in or expanding. Homes sell in days - daughter just bought a starter home in an inner ring suburb for $35,000 over it's asking price. 36 offers on the home.

27 Pittsburgh, PA MSA 2,317,600 2,356,285 −1.64% Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV CSA
28 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
29 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
30 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN MSA
31 Kansas City, MO-KS MSA
32 Columbus, OH MSA
33 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
34 Cleveland-Elyria, OH MSA 2,048,449 2,077,240 −1.39% Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA

When discussing airport catchment areas it is more accurate to use CSAs (Combined Statistical Areas). Cleveland ranks 18th largest in the nation with 3.6 million people, one million more than Pittsburgh.

flyPIT wrote:

Yes, I do see Cleveland is also in the tank. They have been there for years so why is their airport doing so much better? With a regional population of 4 million I've long thought CLE should be pulling in about 14 million passengers (pre-COVID) ...

Cleveland's area population has been dropping by fairly small numbers annually; but the "internal" numbers are quite different. Education levels and earnings are up; average age is down. Except at the depth of the Covid layoffs, non-farm jobs have exceeded exceed the available workforce, meaning the area is pulling in commuters from outside the MSA. City tax revenue growth indicates wages have grown by $2-3 billion just in the city itself since 2016. Most of this progress is quite recent (since 2016) and is not widely recognized even in Cleveland.

Interesting fact: "The City of #CLE lost 1.8% pop between 2012-2018...but the number of households went up 6.3%." - Prof Joanna Ganning on twitter So the population loss actually reflects fewer children - not adults; and children don't generate much disposable income for buying airplane tickets..

I don't know how this compares to peer cities. I'm sure they are showing progress as well.

I also think that the SW PA and WVA may be suffering from the huge drawdown in the coal industry and coal power plant shut downs in the area (including SE Ohio) Cleveland never had the huge coal power plants (the few they were shut down years ago) or mining companies. Our nuclear plants are still running and employing a couple of thousand. I believe PA's are all shut down or will soon. Has a impact on large mining and plant support industries.

NE Ohio is actually doing quite well.

Not that this is a Cleveland thread, but I've always felt that CLE underperforms relative to CSA population is because it is so drivable to NY, DC, CHI, DTW, in state large cities of CMH and CVG-- Clevelanders are a driving lot!! (heck even to places like Myrtle Beach, people drive it by the ton from Cleveland). F9 and NK really have a lot of driving traffic to tap in to.

Pre pandemic, I've always wondered why PIT holds its own or even passes CLE to DC and NY given that it's even closer to the east coast. I just wonder if in the pandemic PIT's proximity is catching up to it and driving down traffic more than other cities.

flyPIT wrote:

Yes, I do see Cleveland is also in the tank. They have been there for years so why is their airport doing so much better? With a regional population of 4 million I've long thought CLE should be pulling in about 14 million passengers (pre-COVID) but for most of the post hub era they have been down to PIT's level of service. Cleveland has long been an economic disaster. But they may very well start to pull away even more now, the ULCCs have found good success there and UA seems to have a renewed interest.

For years, Pittsburgh had a better economy, better air service and a better football team. Times they are a-changin.

Regarding the COVID related lock downs and resultant affect on air travel discussed above, PIT actually held its own relative to other comparable markets ...until last Fall and onward when PA increased its own restrictions to draconian levels, and I'm not sure why that very valid fact needed deleting.


March numbers are out, total passengers are down 10.2%. March last year represents the transition in to COVID so from here on out it should be large increases yoy. Mar '21 is a nice jump from Feb '21 however so that's good.

Cargo saw huge increases as well... 27.2% increase. I'd attribute that to significant increases (percentage wise) by FedEx as well as the fact that the end of March last year was the beginning of the pandemic shutdowns and related economic destruction so there probably was much less shipping going on during those first few weeks. Mail was up even more at 37%. The recently added daytime UPS rotation is actually a mail flight (5000 flight number), it does not carry UPS cargo.
https://flypittsburgh.com/wp-content/up ... Report.pdf

AGC hag a great month as well with traffic up a whopping 43% in March, which was also the busiest month there in 10 years. I assume that is referring to operations.
https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/ ... cover.html

B6 will be axing PIT-FLL. As of now it is showing a return of Sept 8 but considering that is also the date PIT-PBI "returns" (it never started) and PIT-BOS goes 6x daily that tells me Sept 8 onward is only a placeholder schedule. This is the second time B6 canned PIT-FLL.

"Mexico-based Mas Air Cargo Airlines also is planning to start service to Pittsburgh"
https://www.post-gazette.com/business/d ... 2104160151

So that's certainly some good news.



Also:
"Also Friday, the board authorized a 50-year agreement with Cincinnati-based Al. Neyer to develop 48 acres of authority-controlled land known as the Northfield site at International Drive and Business 376.

The company, which has done a number of projects on authority-controlled land around the airport, is proposing to develop 650,000 square feet of light industrial/flexible buildings at the site. Its lease rate for the ground will start at 29 cents a square foot and increase by 10% every five years.

Al. Neyer became involved after it “just didn’t work out” with another developer that had been hired to build at the site, Ms. Cassotis said, prompting the authority to request new proposals."

Does this mean that the PIT International Logistics Centre will be built out as initially envisioned or is it dead? The first building put in (also by Al Neyer IIRC) followed the original dimensions and site plan so that's good, even if the building is not occupied by a logistics company.

flyPIT wrote:

B6 will be axing PIT-FLL. As of now it is showing a return of Sept 8 but considering that is also the date PIT-PBI "returns" (it never started) and PIT-BOS goes 6x daily that tells me Sept 8 onward is only a placeholder schedule. This is the second time B6 canned PIT-FLL.

Pit pbi is probably really axed. Pit fll will come back later this year. They simply don't have enough aircraft and pilots to run their peak summer nyc schedule without making cuts elsewhere.

Plus Florida in the summer is a slower time of year than in the winter time

tphuang wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

B6 will be axing PIT-FLL. As of now it is showing a return of Sept 8 but considering that is also the date PIT-PBI "returns" (it never started) and PIT-BOS goes 6x daily that tells me Sept 8 onward is only a placeholder schedule. This is the second time B6 canned PIT-FLL.

Pit pbi is probably really axed. Pit fll will come back later this year. They simply don't have enough aircraft and pilots to run their peak summer nyc schedule without making cuts elsewhere.

PIT - FLL/PBI is already pretty well served with WN/NK/B6 on FLL and G4 on PBI. I don't have hard numbers for all of those but visually at least from the boarding gates, all seem to be doing pretty well in terms of pax numbers. I would imagine though that yields are trash. I know this is true on some these as I've seen the numbers but I can't speak for all of them.

AA is resuming RDU-PIT in June, 2x E175

tphuang wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

B6 will be axing PIT-FLL. As of now it is showing a return of Sept 8 but considering that is also the date PIT-PBI "returns" (it never started) and PIT-BOS goes 6x daily that tells me Sept 8 onward is only a placeholder schedule. This is the second time B6 canned PIT-FLL.

Pit pbi is probably really axed. Pit fll will come back later this year. They simply don't have enough aircraft and pilots to run their peak summer nyc schedule without making cuts elsewhere.

B6 never has had much success trying to gain a foothold in the PIT leisure markets. Competing against WN and G4 to Florida, B6 is closer to a legacy then low cost in their pricing/offering. Also it doesn't help that many leisure pax in PIT are WN fanatics. I've noticed most the people I work with that have families have Southwest credit cards. Which is telling, because it means they are using miles to purchase tickets and thus less likely to try an alternative carrier. Let alone they might be only searching on WNs website for flights to begin with. I wonder if B6 was looking at their lackluster future bookings and just decided to put the capacity elsewhere. Alot of airlines seem to be putting stuff out there currently to see what the bookings look like to then just never launch the flights. It's a shame though because more competition is always a positive.

pitbosflyer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

B6 will be axing PIT-FLL. As of now it is showing a return of Sept 8 but considering that is also the date PIT-PBI "returns" (it never started) and PIT-BOS goes 6x daily that tells me Sept 8 onward is only a placeholder schedule. This is the second time B6 canned PIT-FLL.

Pit pbi is probably really axed. Pit fll will come back later this year. They simply don't have enough aircraft and pilots to run their peak summer nyc schedule without making cuts elsewhere.

B6 never has had much success trying to gain a foothold in the PIT leisure markets. Competing against WN and G4 to Florida, B6 is closer to a legacy then low cost in their pricing/offering. Also it doesn't help that many leisure pax in PIT are WN fanatics. I've noticed most the people I work with that have families have Southwest credit cards. Which is telling, because it means they are using miles to purchase tickets and thus less likely to try an alternative carrier. Let alone they might be only searching on WNs website for flights to begin with. I wonder if B6 was looking at their lackluster future bookings and just decided to put the capacity elsewhere. Alot of airlines seem to be putting stuff out there currently to see what the bookings look like to then just never launch the flights. It's a shame though because more competition is always a positive.

Keep in mind that B6 had been running this route at 5x weekly all spring. If it was performing terribly, they would not have flown it this much during peak season to Florida. That suggests to me it was a more profitable during winter/spring than a lot of the NYC/Boston markets. There is certainly no guarantee that B6 will return on PIT-FLL by end of this year, but I think it's quite likely. B6 is looking to operate as many flights out of NYC right now as possible during summer peak season and routes like PIT-FLL that are not critical to their network and have lower demand over summer time are the ones they have picked to drop.

pitbosflyer wrote:

B6 never has had much success trying to gain a foothold in the PIT leisure markets. Competing against WN and G4 to Florida, B6 is closer to a legacy then low cost in their pricing/offering.

IMHO B6 never put much of an effort in serving PIT-Florida. They could have had a chunk of the market long before NK came along. Their first FL route years ago should have been MCO. That's probably still the case. The first time they dropped FLL it was flown with an A320. If they really wanted a lasting presence in the market I would think they would have down gauged to an E190 at least. I still don't think they should have dropped JFK if they were serious about a presence in PIT. The strength of PIT-BOS came as a pleasant surprise to them. Its like they didn't do any homework at all when looking at the Pittsburgh market.

tphuang wrote:

Keep in mind that B6 had been running this route at 5x weekly all spring. If it was performing terribly, they would not have flown it this much during peak season to Florida. That suggests to me it was a more profitable during winter/spring than a lot of the NYC/Boston markets. There is certainly no guarantee that B6 will return on PIT-FLL by end of this year, but I think it's quite likely. B6 is looking to operate as many flights out of NYC right now as possible during summer peak season and routes like PIT-FLL that are not critical to their network and have lower demand over summer time are the ones they have picked to drop.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that PIT be on par with NYC or BOS when it comes to B6's asset allocation, but look at some of their other routes. RIC-LAX/LAS, CHS-LAX, BDL-SFO, JAX-RDU, etc. yet they don't even want to put up a fight in PIT-Florida? I think any assertion that B6 might consider PIT-LAX is dead in the water.

flyPIT wrote:

pitbosflyer wrote:

B6 never has had much success trying to gain a foothold in the PIT leisure markets. Competing against WN and G4 to Florida, B6 is closer to a legacy then low cost in their pricing/offering.

IMHO B6 never put much of an effort in serving PIT-Florida. They could have had a chunk of the market long before NK came along. Their first FL route years ago should have been MCO. That's probably still the case. The first time they dropped FLL it was flown with an A320. If they really wanted a lasting presence in the market I would think they would have down gauged to an E190 at least. I still don't think they should have dropped JFK if they were serious about a presence in PIT. The strength of PIT-BOS came came as a pleasant surprise to them. Its like they didn't do any homework at all when looking at the Pittsburgh market.

tphuang wrote:

Keep in mind that B6 had been running this route at 5x weekly all spring. If it was performing terribly, they would not have flown it this much during peak season to Florida. That suggests to me it was a more profitable during winter/spring than a lot of the NYC/Boston markets. There is certainly no guarantee that B6 will return on PIT-FLL by end of this year, but I think it's quite likely. B6 is looking to operate as many flights out of NYC right now as possible during summer peak season and routes like PIT-FLL that are not critical to their network and have lower demand over summer time are the ones they have picked to drop.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that PIT be on par with NYC or BOS when it comes to B6's asset allocation, but look at some of their other routes. RIC-LAX/LAS, CHS-LAX, BDL-SFO, JAX-RDU, etc. yet they don't even want to put up a fight in PIT-Florida? I think any assertion that B6 might consider PIT-LAX is dead in the water.

PIT-MCO won't happen anytime soon. MCO focus city is on hiatus. JAX-RDU is also cut for the summer. The other routes you mentioned are also on thin ice for this summer. JetBlue is extremely focused on NYC right now and has basically no spare capacity for other BOS/FLL this summer. But once you get to October, NYC departures will drop about 20 to 30 flights and I think you will see PIT-FLL and other Florida routes they cut over summer time come back. It's going to be this way until 2023. Again, my point is that PIT-FLL will come back just like several other Florida routes they cut for the summer. I think NYC-PIT will get added over this next year. They are very committed to building up NYC operation at the moment.

Midwestindy wrote:

AA is resuming RDU-PIT in June, 2x E175

Gotta imagine that's gonna be one way for YX to rotate crews and planes down to AUS. PIT-RDU-AUS-BNA/VPS or something like that.

airplanedaj wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

AA is resuming RDU-PIT in June, 2x E175

Gotta imagine that's gonna be one way for YX to rotate crews and planes down to AUS. PIT-RDU-AUS-BNA/VPS or something like that.

IINM, that flight is operated by MQ, not YX.

USPIT10L wrote:

airplanedaj wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

AA is resuming RDU-PIT in June, 2x E175

Gotta imagine that's gonna be one way for YX to rotate crews and planes down to AUS. PIT-RDU-AUS-BNA/VPS or something like that.

IINM, that flight is operated by MQ, not YX.

It's YX

Speaking of PIT-Florida, I was going through my collection of stuff the other day. It was amazing how much service United had on PIT-MIA/FLL pre-deregulation. If I'm deciphering the codes correctly they had 4 daily flights, increased to 6 on Sat and Sun going in to the Fall.






On a totally unrelated note, does anyone know the status of the old US Airways simulator building "bunker"? Is it currently being used for anything?

Does anyone know equipment on these flights ? Sad to see Youngstown listed. Town couldn't catch a break. I wonder how long a flight that was (PIT-YNG)

flyPIT wrote:

On a totally unrelated note, does anyone know the status of the old US Airways simulator building "bunker"? Is it currently being used for anything?

I thought that building had been condemned. It fell into disrepair, supposedly has a black mold problem, and doubt it is structurally sound after years of being abandoned.

I really needs to be torn down. Last I saw it was 7 years ago and it was an overgrown mess then.

dabpit wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

On a totally unrelated note, does anyone know the status of the old US Airways simulator building "bunker"? Is it currently being used for anything?

I thought that building had been condemned. It fell into disrepair, supposedly has a black mold problem, and doubt it is structurally sound after years of being abandoned.

I really needs to be torn down. Last I saw it was 7 years ago and it was an overgrown mess then.

Ok thanks. I remember they wanted to sublease the building years ago and I had totally forgotten about it. Considering it was a built as a simulator building it's too bad they were never able to get someone like Flight Safety Int'l or SIMCOM to take the space.

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Does anyone know equipment on these flights ? Sad to see Youngstown listed. Town couldn't catch a break. I wonder how long a flight that was (PIT-YNG)

PIT-FLL was all 727
PIT-MIA was mostly 727 with the occasional DC8 and/or 720.

Most if not all of those routes shown in that timetable were former Capital routes.

One of the FLL flights was a DC-8 and one of the MIA flights a DC-10 (as published a year later anyway).
http://www.departedflights.com/PIT74p2.html

Looking across the state, PHL had 30,000,000 pax in 2019, dropped to 11,000,000 in 2020. PHL sees near zero demand for international travel and business travel is weak. They are seeing growth only in leisure travel.

Regarding CLE, that area is still losing population. They are lower than the CVG area now and used to be close to PIT. If our area is so bad, why are there Help Wanted signs all over the place and professional hiring is up? Why is the housing market so strong here? Unemployment might be high in sectors where people don't make enough money to travel, so it's not a relevant metric. CLE might be stealing some local traffic with so much LCC activity.

I don't see politics as a driving factor for the slow rebound of air traffic. If businesses need to travel, they will travel. If people want to get away, they will fly. Some are flying because they are being irresponsible. You might be seeing the impact of technology cutting into business travel. That will affect everyone.

Population growth here will take some time to recover from the lost generation. People, and younger people, are moving into the area. Looking for a mass influx will be difficult as too many want 365 sunshine and no cold weather or rain/snow. That's why the national population is shifting south. With tech companies hiring people to work remotely, this region could attract people to live here with the cost and cultural advantages we have. They work from here any only occasionally travel to the home office. There's a new source of passengers.

How this area is doing with population won't be known until census data is published, which will probably need some statistical adjustments based on what should be suspect numbers nationally. The area has stabilized. Has the uptick in population started? Don't know yet.

This study from Pew https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-a ... ew-economy shows areas with population losses are doing quite well. They highlight Pittsburgh as an example. Per capita income has increased substantially with a lower population.

So, don't be the whoa-is-me old Pittsburgh. We are doing well and will do better. We aren't a boom town. Some of the current boom towns are also bubbles that will burst. Always happens. Steady addition to the local economy will lead to acceleration. Be focused. Be patient.

Info on PHL.
https://www.inquirer.com/business/phila ... 10326.html

ConcourseZ wrote:

Regarding CLE, that area is still losing population. They are lower than the CVG area now and used to be close to PIT. If our area is so bad, why are there Help Wanted signs all over the place and professional hiring is up? Why is the housing market so strong here? Unemployment might be high in sectors where people don't make enough money to travel, so it's not a relevant metric. CLE might be stealing some local traffic with so much LCC activity.

.
Of course unemployment is a relevant metric. To answer some of your other questions, I've previously linked plenty of data and the statistics don't lie. The housing market is getting stronger but that's because new housing construction in the metro is at record lows:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PITT342BP1FHSA

I agree with you that CLE might (and probably is) taking some of our traffic with all their ULCC expansion. I'd like to see a new study on this. After Cassotis came on board the ACAA stopped advertising in NE Ohio. I don't understand why they did that, especially considering how easy of a drive to PIT it is.

I don't see politics as a driving factor for the slow rebound of air traffic. If businesses need to travel, they will travel. If people want to get away, they will fly. Some are flying because they are being irresponsible. You might be seeing the impact of technology cutting into business travel. That will affect everyone.

What is irresponsible about flying? I agree that the fall in business traffic and affect of technology affects everyone so I think it is fair game to examine why our region did so much worse in the second half of the pandemic compared to similar metros, to include the politics behind it.

Population growth here will take some time to recover from the lost generation. People, and younger people, are moving into the area. Looking for a mass influx will be difficult as too many want 365 sunshine and no cold weather or rain/snow. That's why the national population is shifting south. With tech companies hiring people to work remotely, this region could attract people to live here with the cost and cultural advantages we have. They work from here any only occasionally travel to the home office. There's a new source of passengers.

How this area is doing with population won't be known until census data is published, which will probably need some statistical adjustments based on what should be suspect numbers nationally. The area has stabilized. Has the uptick in population started? Don't know yet.

The "lost generation" is now two lost generations and turning in to three. How much longer is the region going to continue to blame the collapse of the steel industry for the area's woes? The fact is the steel industry did leave in the early eighties .. but it did make a rebound in the United States later in the decade and the next. It rebounded in Indiana, N. Carolina, Alabama, etc but not here. Why is that? Rhetorical.. I know why.

The national population is shifting south due to tax policy and regulation being favorable in the southern states. The sun has very little to due with it. This was proven yet again in this latest population exodus from the Northeast to the South during the pandemic.

This study from Pew https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-a ... ew-economy shows areas with population losses are doing quite well. They highlight Pittsburgh as an example. Per capita income has increased substantially with a lower population.

That's a good article. Its also from 2018 when Pittsburgh was doing pretty good leading up to that time compared to similar regions. I'd also like to suggest going back and reading the second half, specifically under "Hard to maintain". My recent issues have to with how the State has handled COVID and the affect it has had on our economy compared to similar regions.

So, don't be the whoa-is-me old Pittsburgh. We are doing well and will do better. We aren't a boom town. Some of the current boom towns are also bubbles that will burst. Always happens. Steady addition to the local economy will lead to acceleration. Be focused. Be patient.

None of this is personal. Elections matter and decisions those elected officials make matter. Another oddity about residents in Western PA is they seem to settle for mediocrity. It is what it is. Personally I'd like to see population and job growth. Not Austin type growth, we don't have the infrastructure for that but more along the lines of IND or SDF. If the region continues to dwindle then we lose representatives in congress, we lose funding, etc etc.


On a related note, here is something West Virginia is doing. Looks interesting and something PA should consider:
"The state of West Virginia is on the recruiting trail, and some officials are hoping it could land more residents in the Northern Panhandle in the future.

Nearly 2 weeks ago, Governor Jim Justice signed a bill modernizing the state's corporate tax structure, which will allow the state to open the remote work program, designed to attract workers from across the country.

Through the pandemic, companies have learned that employees are just as efficient in many cases while working from home. Through a survey of executives, it was found that nearly half of them believe this structure of remote employees will maintain moving forward.

"Can we continue that and not have the overhead of large office spaces? I think that’s going to continue, that’s going to be the trend," Sen. Ryan Weld Weld said.

With that in mind, officials in the Mountain State are hoping to entice people through the Ascend West Virginia program, which includes a $12,000 relocation fee, 1 year of free outdoor activities throughout the state, and free co-working space in the heart of thriving mountain towns."
https://wtov9.com/news/local/officials- ... t-virginia

Proximity to PIT is one of the selling points and rightfully so.

I agree that the population needs to grow and it likely is, albeit slowly. I still don't see politics as a factor. Our next door neighbor, Ohio, that "business friendly" state, is not a boom state and performing only marginally better than Pennsylvania. It will also lose at least one congressional seat. Columbus is doing well only because the vast majority of its growth is coming from other parts of Ohio, a redistribution of the population (just like Austin), according to a study in Ohio. As I said before, this is a preference of the population to live in warmer areas.

Places like North Carolina are doing well in steel because they have mini-mills. Mini-mills are far less costly to operate compared to the integrated mills. To my knowledge, there are no such things in Western PA. NUCOR, the largest mini-mill operator, has most of their mills in the southern states. Labor costs in integrated mills (around the year 2000) with modern steel making technology accounted for 7% of cost per ton (Source: steel industry consultant). Labor costs really aren't a factor in steel production anymore. However, when scrap prices rise, minimills' cost advantage evaporates. North Carolina has relaxed a lot of their environmental policies to be more attractive to businesses. Just ask the people of NC about their drinking water. It's shocking. I don't think anyone wants to slide backward with the health of the environment and the people. NC has created a long-term disadvantage.

Yes, single family housing starts have been low but there has been a boom in apartment and condo construction. That's a heathy market in the younger demographic, principally.

This area needs to keep the focus on future jobs: healthcare, medicine, AI, Robotics, software, autonomous vehicles, new aircraft technologies, additive manufacturing, human technology integration, augmented reality, biotechnology, biologic chips, solar, alternative fuels, computer/internet security, internet replacement, nano technology, high-speed rail or hyperloop-type technology, and whatever else is coming out of the local universities as future technologies. Those jobs will come.

ConcourseZ wrote:

I agree that the population needs to grow and it likely is, albeit slowly.

Except its not. Still declining.

I still don't see politics as a factor. Our next door neighbor, Ohio, that "business friendly" state, is not a boom state and performing only marginally better than Pennsylvania. It will also lose at least one congressional seat. Columbus is doing well only because the vast majority of its growth is coming from other parts of Ohio, a redistribution of the population (just like Austin), according to a study in Ohio. As I said before, this is a preference of the population to live in warmer areas.

Who cares where they are coming from in regards to AUS or CMH. Fact is, they are coming. If you are suggesting Austin's explosive growth is solely caused by other Texans you are sadly mistaken. All the California license plates suggest otherwise too. I'm not comparing the farmland of PA to that of OH here.

Places like North Carolina are doing well in steel because they have mini-mills. Mini-mills are far less costly to operate compared to the integrated mills. To my knowledge, there are no such things in Western PA. NUCOR, the largest mini-mill operator, has most of their mills in the southern states.

Thank you for making my point.

North Carolina has relaxed a lot of their environmental policies to be more attractive to businesses. Just ask the people of NC about their drinking water. It's shocking. I don't think anyone wants to slide backward with the health of the environment and the people. NC has created a long-term disadvantage.

Pittsburgh has some of the worst air quality ratings in the nation and our drinking water is nothing to brag about either. We've discussed this months ago.

This area needs to keep the focus on future jobs: healthcare, medicine, AI, Robotics, software, autonomous vehicles, new aircraft technologies, additive manufacturing, human technology integration, augmented reality, biotechnology, biologic chips, solar, alternative fuels, computer/internet security, internet replacement, nano technology, high-speed rail or hyperloop-type technology, and whatever else is coming out of the local universities as future technologies. Those jobs will come.

This I wholeheartedly agree with but it should not be the sole focus. The region needs a diversified economy and we've had mixed results.




Here's a good roundup of WOW Air.. I found the chart with number of flights and seats to each destination interesting. PIT did alright.
https://simpleflying.com/wow-17-north-a ... tinations/

No I am not sadly mistaken. According to data from Texas, the vast majority of people moving to Austin are coming from within Texas. California migration into Texas accounts for only 8% of Texas population growth. There is no mass California influx into Texas. Sorry. Those are the facts.

You missed my point about steel. It's the type of steel plant not where it's located.

The region's population is still declining? Between 2018 and 2019 it declined by about 5,000. Not what I would call declining. A bit lower, but likely part of the bottoming out. 2020 federal census data not yet available. That data could be suspect given the awful job the previous administration's incompetence with everything.

Pittsburgh does not have some of the worst air quality. The monitors used are located by heavy polluters, such as the Clairton Cole Works, which is downwind of most of the areas population. Government officials have been complaining about this mis-representation for years.

Checking NK's website, they will be increasing PIT-LAX to 3x weekly here in a couple weeks. It shows daily in July but I believe July are placeholder schedules. 3x weekly is pathetic, even SDF-LAX will have daily flights.

ConcourseZ wrote:

No I am not sadly mistaken. According to data from Texas, the vast majority of people moving to Austin are coming from within Texas. California migration into Texas accounts for only 8% of Texas population growth. There is no mass California influx into Texas. Sorry. Those are the facts.

8% in-migration just from one state? That's huge! What about all the other states added in? But again, why does it matter where the people are coming from? The issue is why is this not happening in Pittsburgh? If you wanna keep arguing straw man arguments such as intra-state migration, then why are rural people in PA not moving to Pgh like Ohioans are moving to CMH?

You missed my point about steel. It's the type of steel plant not where it's located.

No, IT IS about where its located, and the jobs and tax revenue that comes with it, not about they type of plant. You are making another straw man argument.

The region's population is still declining? Between 2018 and 2019 it declined by about 5,000. Not what I would call declining.

The region lost 5000 people in a year and you don't think that is a decline?

Pittsburgh does not have some of the worst air quality. The monitors used are located by heavy polluters, such as the Clairton Cole Works, which is downwind of most of the areas population. Government officials have been complaining about this mis-representation for years.

Shouldn't air monitors be near the worst offenders? Do you think think this is unique to Pittsburgh?
https://www.lung.org/research/sota/key- ... -pollution
Look at highly regulated CA while you're in there. Your argument that more regulation equals better this or that has more holes in it than Swiss cheese.

Keep digging.

UPS has upgauged its PIT-PHL-PIT flight from a 757 to A300. This in turn also means the daytime PIT-SDF-PIT mail flight is also upgauged as the same airframe is used.


One bight spot for development in the Pittsburgh region is the area immediately south and west of PIT:
"Oliva also totaled up all the development activity in the vicinity of the airport of the last five years in a triangle of territory of Interstate 376, Route 576 and Route 22.

He said there has been in the range of $500 million in industrial real estate transactions in that area, calling it a “staggering number that can’t be replicated anywhere throughout the region."
https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/ ... pment.html


Boutique Air's EAS application to restore service to JHW has been declined. I'm kinda surprised by this considering how much money the local Jamestown business community put up to support the service:
https://www.post-journal.com/news/page- ... overnment/

Some WN updates for June I found so far:

MDW and MCO gain a daily frequency
STL/HOU/DAL return, 1x daily.
MCO/TPA/FLL/RSW each pick up 1 additional on Sat,

No new routes.

From Finnair Cargo, "Our first ever flight to Pittsburgh has just departed from Helsinki with a belly filled with cargo."
https://mobile.twitter.com/FinnairCargo/status/1387039514556727310
https://www.flightradar24.com/FIN8865/2788bf17

flyPIT wrote:

Some WN updates for June I found so far:

MDW and MCO gain a daily frequency
STL/HOU/DAL return, 1x daily.
MCO/TPA/FLL/RSW each pick up 1 additional on Sat,

No new routes.

I don't think WN has really finished with June schedule yet. There are many large frequency jumps and route restorations for June 6th and beyond that will likely be scaled back. There will certainly be increases in June schedule, but it's seems very unlikely it will at the scale that is currently loaded.

umichman wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

Some WN updates for June I found so far:

MDW and MCO gain a daily frequency
STL/HOU/DAL return, 1x daily.
MCO/TPA/FLL/RSW each pick up 1 additional on Sat,

No new routes.

I don't think WN has really finished with June schedule yet. There are many large frequency jumps and route restorations for June 6th and beyond that will likely be scaled back. There will certainly be increases in June schedule, but it's seems very unlikely it will at the scale that is currently loaded.

Airlines don't add capacity back one month ahead of departure, to cut it again.

WN is planning for June/July capacity to be at 2019 levels
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... all-trans/

Fin air is chartering a flight full of cargo in this evening. ETA is around 600pm EST

worldtraveler2 wrote:

From Finnair Cargo, "Our first ever flight to Pittsburgh has just departed from Helsinki with a belly filled with cargo."
https://mobile.twitter.com/FinnairCargo/status/1387039514556727310
https://www.flightradar24.com/FIN8865/2788bf17

Great news! A bit more:
"The first of series of booked charters for the route". So more than a one off although no other details yet.
https://cargo.finnair.com/en/cargo-news ... me-2276122

I believe this is the first scheduled revenue (non training/sports charter/diversion) A350 at PIT.


Regarding the WN updates, looks like i jumped the gun on PIT-DAL/HOU. Those got pushed back a week, so are only placeholders from what I gather in the WN thread. SRQ otoh had its dailiness extended but all in all another disappointing WN extension considering how some of the other cities fared. We'll see what Breeze has in store for us, if anything. Some good PIT chatter in the Breeze thread.

flyPIT wrote:

worldtraveler2 wrote:

From Finnair Cargo, "Our first ever flight to Pittsburgh has just departed from Helsinki with a belly filled with cargo."
https://mobile.twitter.com/FinnairCargo/status/1387039514556727310
https://www.flightradar24.com/FIN8865/2788bf17

Great news! A bit more:
"The first of series of booked charters for the route". So more than a one off although no other details yet.
https://cargo.finnair.com/en/cargo-news ... me-2276122

I believe this is the first scheduled revenue (non training/sports charter/diversion) A350 at PIT.


Regarding the WN updates, looks like i jumped the gun on PIT-DAL/HOU. Those got pushed back a week, so are only placeholders from what I gather in the WN thread. SRQ otoh had its dailiness extended but all in all another disappointing WN extension considering how some of the other cities fared. We'll see what Breeze has in store for us, if anything. Some good PIT chatter in the Breeze thread.

Exciting that Finnair is flying an A350 for the cargo charter. Should be on the ground in about 1.5 hours so hope someone gets out there to get some pictures!

As for Breeze, I remain skeptical if PIT really will be one of their first cities (have to be until it happens) but the odds seem to be favorable.

Midwestindy wrote:

umichman wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

Some WN updates for June I found so far:

MDW and MCO gain a daily frequency
STL/HOU/DAL return, 1x daily.
MCO/TPA/FLL/RSW each pick up 1 additional on Sat,

No new routes.

I don't think WN has really finished with June schedule yet. There are many large frequency jumps and route restorations for June 6th and beyond that will likely be scaled back. There will certainly be increases in June schedule, but it's seems very unlikely it will at the scale that is currently loaded.

Airlines don't add capacity back one month ahead of departure, to cut it again.

WN is planning for June/July capacity to be at 2019 levels
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... all-trans/

I was using Google Flights which is behind in loading WN schedule updates. The June cutbacks have been loaded now through June 19th. SFO-LAX was originally loaded at 6x daily in June, but now it is 3x daily like May. OAK-LAX was originally loaded at 9x daily for June, but is now 5x daily like May. There were a number STL routes that were supposed to restart in June. STL-PIT/PHL/CLE/MSY/PDX will restart as originally loaded (although not all at the original frequencies), STL-DTW/IND/CMH/SFO/SAT have had their restarts pushed back again. Capacity may be similar to 2019 levels, but there is a whole lot of cutting going on their traditional routes right now. The June schedule load will probably not be finished until a couple more days.

dabpit wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

worldtraveler2 wrote:

From Finnair Cargo, "Our first ever flight to Pittsburgh has just departed from Helsinki with a belly filled with cargo."
https://mobile.twitter.com/FinnairCargo/status/1387039514556727310
https://www.flightradar24.com/FIN8865/2788bf17

Great news! A bit more:
"The first of series of booked charters for the route". So more than a one off although no other details yet.
https://cargo.finnair.com/en/cargo-news ... me-2276122

I believe this is the first scheduled revenue (non training/sports charter/diversion) A350 at PIT.


Regarding the WN updates, looks like i jumped the gun on PIT-DAL/HOU. Those got pushed back a week, so are only placeholders from what I gather in the WN thread. SRQ otoh had its dailiness extended but all in all another disappointing WN extension considering how some of the other cities fared. We'll see what Breeze has in store for us, if anything. Some good PIT chatter in the Breeze thread.

Exciting that Finnair is flying an A350 for the cargo charter. Should be on the ground in about 1.5 hours so hope someone gets out there to get some pictures!

I would also like to see pics of AY A350 at KPIT! Videos would also be great. Luckily this wasn't the only one of AY's flights to Pittsburgh. There will be more in the coming days. I think the next flight departs today from HEL. AY is transporting parts for Toyota.

finnishway wrote:

There will be more in the coming days. I think the next flight departs today from HEL. AY is transporting parts for Toyota.

Thank you for the info! The next flight is already under way.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/FIN8865