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MIflyer12
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Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:36 pm

airzim wrote:
I think the issue is when UA and CO merged, sUA had a 100% United First cabin on their long haul fleets.


767 sales to U.S. passenger fleets were dead long before the CO/UA merger. CO and NW had ordered 787s; US and NW had A330s on-property; DL was focused on ULH, getting 77Ls. AA and UA had big 777 fleets.
 
sldispatcher
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:55 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
sldispatcher wrote:
jayunited wrote:



But that is Big City thinking. No reason to bring more service on a $70 fare route, but there are still many dots where they have yet to reconnect that were $500 fare routes.


Eight passengers at $500/each doesn't justify a CR2/E145 over a typical distance. Revenue per trip does (vs. cost).

UA has far more single-class RJs than DL or AA to serve little-poop destinations. As of 12/31/20, the respective annual reports showed 54 at DL, 122 at AA, and 182 at UA. For the 12 months ending 12/2019, SHV ranked 164 in domestic passenger departures according to Transtats data. It shouldn't be hard to understand why such an airport doesn't get service to a full set of UA hubs.

Ignoring the condescension, the idea that just 8 people are onboard is completely wrong. I wasn’t asking for full service to all hubs either.
I mentioned ONE flight to DEN and also compared existing departures at the same airport to other carriers.

United’s pattern up until covid was that they obviously thought there was merit in serving smaller destinations based on their city/route adds.

As WN has now changed their route planning philosophy, we’ll see how the others including United respond.
 
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airzim
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Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:58 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
airzim wrote:
I think the issue is when UA and CO merged, sUA had a 100% United First cabin on their long haul fleets.


767 sales to U.S. passenger fleets were dead long before the CO/UA merger. CO and NW had ordered 787s; US and NW had A330s on-property; DL was focused on ULH, getting 77Ls. AA and UA had big 777 fleets.


But UA had a First cabin way before the merger, ergo, they didn't need a large fleet of smaller capacity aircraft given they didn't really fly to any smaller "non-First justified" markets. Had they not had a First cabin, I was postulating they might have invested in more 767s.
 
UA444
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Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:10 pm

UA bought 37 767-322ERs. Two were let go in bankruptcy and one is now the Houston Rockets charter plane
 
avi8
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:11 pm

How many MAXs are in service today? If I remember correctly, there are 20 flying around. When does UA plan to have all of them in service?
avi8
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:13 pm

18 of the 21MAXs ( in revenue service) are flying today. 9 are still awaiting revenue service.

There are a couple areas on the Fleet site that you can see this data including ross Paulson's Tableau vis.
Ross just added an interesting table on his Tableau vis. Called "History" and on the right side near the top. It shows the bump in flying vs. short term parked aircraft for the holiday season and weekly changes with Tu/We down days. Data is taken from a daily update of aircraft flying, parked 1-14 days and all others considered stored. (Some heading into paint, long-term maint and into stations like ROW are considered stored when they arrive.)
https://public.tableau.com/profile/rpau ... leetStatus
 
jayunited
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Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:24 pm

airzim wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
airzim wrote:
I think the issue is when UA and CO merged, sUA had a 100% United First cabin on their long haul fleets.


767 sales to U.S. passenger fleets were dead long before the CO/UA merger. CO and NW had ordered 787s; US and NW had A330s on-property; DL was focused on ULH, getting 77Ls. AA and UA had big 777 fleets.


But UA had a First cabin way before the merger, ergo, they didn't need a large fleet of smaller capacity aircraft given they didn't really fly to any smaller "non-First justified" markets. Had they not had a First cabin, I was postulating they might have invested in more 767s.



I'm not sure I follow your train of thought and how UA's first class cabin was a factor. If we rewind the clock back to 1990 through 1995 how many secondary European markets did AA and DL serve?

I agree UA only enter the secondary European market as a result of the merger with CO but without knowing how much of a factor the secondary market was in AA and DL's network in the early 90s it is hard to see the connection between the secondary European market and UA's early 767-300ER order.
 
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ChaseP
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:18 pm

N76021 (Boeing 777-200ER) is scheduled to leave Roswell at 1200 tomorrow afternoon. It will ferry to Washington IAD.
 
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airzim
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Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:30 pm

jayunited wrote:
airzim wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

767 sales to U.S. passenger fleets were dead long before the CO/UA merger. CO and NW had ordered 787s; US and NW had A330s on-property; DL was focused on ULH, getting 77Ls. AA and UA had big 777 fleets.


But UA had a First cabin way before the merger, ergo, they didn't need a large fleet of smaller capacity aircraft given they didn't really fly to any smaller "non-First justified" markets. Had they not had a First cabin, I was postulating they might have invested in more 767s.



I'm not sure I follow your train of thought and how UA's first class cabin was a factor. If we rewind the clock back to 1990 through 1995 how many secondary European markets did AA and DL serve?

I agree UA only enter the secondary European market as a result of the merger with CO but without knowing how much of a factor the secondary market was in AA and DL's network in the early 90s it is hard to see the connection between the secondary European market and UA's early 767-300ER order.


I'm trying to recall from memory and this changed over the years. These are the cities I would not categorize as justifying a First Class market (my own interpretation of course)

AA
LGW
MAN (ORD)
ORY (RDU,BNA,MIA, DFW)
LYS (JFK)
ARN (ORD)
GLA (ORD)
BHM (ORD)
MAD (MIA)

DL
a bit harder with the acquisition of PA's Europe network and the connecting hub in FRA. DL did have a First Class back then too.
but they didn't fly to LHR
But they did inherit many secondary and seasonal markets off the Med (LIS, BCN, ATH, FCO) as well as Eastern and Northern Europe (OTP, BUD, PRG, WAW, HEL, ARN, FBU) that were never strong First markets.

United on the other hand by 2000, was only flying to LHR, CDG, FRA, AMS, BRU, MXP, MUC and DUS and only from NYC, BOS, ORD, LAX, SFO, and IAD. Not from BNA, RDU, MSP, ATL, or CVG.

The 767s really needed to maximize real estate to increase RASM. Southern Europe markets are bumper fares in the height of summer, but United would get slaughtered with a 767 with low cabin density. Just wasn't their market, and therefore didn't need the extra 767s.
 
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Acey559
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:24 am

If anyone is interested, we received a crew resources update yesterday and were notified of two vacancy bids planned for March. One is open right now with the second to follow later this month. The vacancy later on is planned to re-open all (I believe) and of the categories that were closed last year at the beginning of COVID. As it stands, the following will be re-opening and up for bid:

IAH 777
DCA 777
DCA 756
LAX 756
SFO 756

No indication of exactly when those categories will re-open, but is good news nonetheless.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4305
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:10 am

jayunited wrote:
airzim wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

767 sales to U.S. passenger fleets were dead long before the CO/UA merger. CO and NW had ordered 787s; US and NW had A330s on-property; DL was focused on ULH, getting 77Ls. AA and UA had big 777 fleets.


But UA had a First cabin way before the merger, ergo, they didn't need a large fleet of smaller capacity aircraft given they didn't really fly to any smaller "non-First justified" markets. Had they not had a First cabin, I was postulating they might have invested in more 767s.



I'm not sure I follow your train of thought and how UA's first class cabin was a factor. If we rewind the clock back to 1990 through 1995 how many secondary European markets did AA and DL serve?

I agree UA only enter the secondary European market as a result of the merger with CO but without knowing how much of a factor the secondary market was in AA and DL's network in the early 90s it is hard to see the connection between the secondary European market and UA's early 767-300ER order.


I'm not sure the secondary markets coverage is really a factor in why UA didn't have more 767-300ERs on property. Think the issue was TATL for legacy UA was focused mainly out of ORD and IAD in the run-up to the merger. JFK, EWR, BOS were tertiary stations only serving LHR. SFO had FRA and LHR, and later MUC, and LAX was LHR. UA's IAD hub was a lot smaller than CO's at EWR, US's at PHL and CLT, and also dwarfed by ATL so making secondary markets to Europe work was more of a right-sized plane and market catchment as well as where TATL was concentrated for UA before the merger and in the 2000s the bankruptcy was also likely a factor. The 777 in its then format was too much plane for secondary Europe and the 767-300ER fleet not big enough to leverage to build more service. There's also the LH code share to consider too.

As others have pointed out, the 777 order was likely a major factor, combined with geographic spread and structure of US hubs, and at UA anyway, the 767-300ER then was a jack of all trades for the route map the airline had then.
 
skipness1E
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Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:36 am

They briefly flew IAD-GLA on the B762 from Aug 1993 to Jan 1995, I seem to recall quite a lot of other transatlantic was on the B762, they were even common at LHR in 1992 on my first visit, alonside various marks of B747-100/200/SP.
 
UA857
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:16 am

With the MAX 10 being delayed to 2023 what will UA fly on its Premium Transcon service?
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:35 pm

skipness1E wrote:
They briefly flew IAD-GLA on the B762 from Aug 1993 to Jan 1995, I seem to recall quite a lot of other transatlantic was on the B762, they were even common at LHR in 1992 on my first visit, alonside various marks of B747-100/200/SP.


They did fly IAD-GLA for a time, and it was on the 762. Think it was mentioned further up in the thread that they converted some 767-200s to ETOPS to operate some TATL service in the 1992-1994 period. I believe some CDG service was also effected with 762s in 1992/1993. At LHR, there was everything for a time, from the 747-100/200 to the 747-SP, 767-300ER and 767-200. As the 777 came on line, in May 1995, with the inaugural flight operating LHR to IAD, it, and the 767-300ER became the standard for UA at LHR by the late 1990s. The 747-400 was used on SFO-LHR again later and when JFK went down to a single flight, down from 3 including a daylight, it went to a 777.

The 767-300ER was the plane used for portions of the RTW flight UA 1 / UA 2 which operated as LAX-JFK-LHR-DEL-HKG. The JFK to Heathrow, Heathrow to DEL, and DEL to HKG sectors were flown on the 763.
 
LGeneReese
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:01 pm

ChaseP wrote:
N76021 (Boeing 777-200ER) is scheduled to leave Roswell at 1200 tomorrow afternoon. It will ferry to Washington IAD.

FWIW Ship 0021/3021 is *A livery and GE powered/former CO
Formerly IAHCSR
 
jayunited
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Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:09 pm

Acey559 wrote:
If anyone is interested, we received a crew resources update yesterday and were notified of two vacancy bids planned for March. One is open right now with the second to follow later this month. The vacancy later on is planned to re-open all (I believe) and of the categories that were closed last year at the beginning of COVID. As it stands, the following will be re-opening and up for bid:

IAH 777
DCA 777
DCA 756
LAX 756
SFO 756

No indication of exactly when those categories will re-open, but is good news nonetheless.


This is good news I'm glad to see things are improving.

I also noticed in the same memo the company stated we are still not sure of the long-term impact fleet size or route assignments for the PW 4000 series 777s which is to be expected. In my opinion it is still far too early to know how many fan blades may harbor the same microscopic fracture. But the company did say they are hopeful there will not be a major impact and are proceeding accordingly which of course at this time means moving forward with the bid.

Hopefully everything works out and after each single fan blade has gone through TAI we can safely return the fleet to service. With P&W now recommending TAI be performed every 1,000 cycles by my unofficial estimate every PW 4000 series engine would need to undergo this inspection every 15-24 months depending on utilization. The domestic HD models have a much higher utilization than the international configured models but even then the international fleet would need to under go another inspection within 24 months if not sooner. By staggering the PW's return to service once the fan blades have been inspected and the fleet is cleared UA could spread out the cost and limit operational impact. However depending on when the PW 777s return to service in 2021 (if it happens), UA would have to begin the process of inspecting fan blades again by late 2022 or early 2023 depending on utilization. This is something the company may choose to do especially if the additional maintenance cost related to TAI aren't to astronomical. If the entire PW fleet is to make it to 2027, in my unofficial estimate, UA would need to perform 3 or 4 more TAI inspections after these initial inspections are complete.

Staggering the return to service this year and next year could theoretically limit overall operational impact again depending on each frames utilization. Depending on overall maintenance cost among other factors I think both Airbus and Boeing may have an opportunity here should UA decided to begin retiring and replacing these frames in 2025 or even 2024.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:31 pm

UA857 wrote:
With the MAX 10 being delayed to 2023 what will UA fly on its Premium Transcon service?

Aren't the 752's supposed to be here until 2025?
 
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airzim
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Re: UA & The 767-300ER

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:19 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
jayunited wrote:
airzim wrote:

But UA had a First cabin way before the merger, ergo, they didn't need a large fleet of smaller capacity aircraft given they didn't really fly to any smaller "non-First justified" markets. Had they not had a First cabin, I was postulating they might have invested in more 767s.



I'm not sure I follow your train of thought and how UA's first class cabin was a factor. If we rewind the clock back to 1990 through 1995 how many secondary European markets did AA and DL serve?

I agree UA only enter the secondary European market as a result of the merger with CO but without knowing how much of a factor the secondary market was in AA and DL's network in the early 90s it is hard to see the connection between the secondary European market and UA's early 767-300ER order.


I'm not sure the secondary markets coverage is really a factor in why UA didn't have more 767-300ERs on property. Think the issue was TATL for legacy UA was focused mainly out of ORD and IAD in the run-up to the merger. JFK, EWR, BOS were tertiary stations only serving LHR. SFO had FRA and LHR, and later MUC, and LAX was LHR. UA's IAD hub was a lot smaller than CO's at EWR, US's at PHL and CLT, and also dwarfed by ATL so making secondary markets to Europe work was more of a right-sized plane and market catchment as well as where TATL was concentrated for UA before the merger and in the 2000s the bankruptcy was also likely a factor. The 777 in its then format was too much plane for secondary Europe and the 767-300ER fleet not big enough to leverage to build more service. There's also the LH code share to consider too.

As others have pointed out, the 777 order was likely a major factor, combined with geographic spread and structure of US hubs, and at UA anyway, the 767-300ER then was a jack of all trades for the route map the airline had then.


I think we're staying the same thing. Outside of LHR, UA was focused on the higher premium TATL markets from IAD and ORD, I would add that could justify First. There was no reason that UA couldn't have tried to build a larger TATL operation at IAD or ORD, feeding secondary markets with a less premium aircraft. However, I'm postulating that since UA remained committed to being a three cabin airline on all long haul aircraft, there was little need for a smaller (767) TATL capable fleet with a more appropriate product mix. The 777s did end up being the workhorse but perpetuated the same overall issue.
 
jayunited
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Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:19 pm

cosyr wrote:
UA857 wrote:
With the MAX 10 being delayed to 2023 what will UA fly on its Premium Transcon service?

Aren't the 752's supposed to be here until 2025?


Yes the 752s are staying until 2025, the A321XLRs will replace those aircraft.
 
codc10
Posts: 3087
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:37 pm

jayunited wrote:
Acey559 wrote:
If anyone is interested, we received a crew resources update yesterday and were notified of two vacancy bids planned for March. One is open right now with the second to follow later this month. The vacancy later on is planned to re-open all (I believe) and of the categories that were closed last year at the beginning of COVID. As it stands, the following will be re-opening and up for bid:

IAH 777
DCA 777
DCA 756
LAX 756
SFO 756

No indication of exactly when those categories will re-open, but is good news nonetheless.


This is good news I'm glad to see things are improving.

I also noticed in the same memo the company stated we are still not sure of the long-term impact fleet size or route assignments for the PW 4000 series 777s which is to be expected. In my opinion it is still far too early to know how many fan blades may harbor the same microscopic fracture. But the company did say they are hopeful there will not be a major impact and are proceeding accordingly which of course at this time means moving forward with the bid.

Hopefully everything works out and after each single fan blade has gone through TAI we can safely return the fleet to service. With P&W now recommending TAI be performed every 1,000 cycles by my unofficial estimate every PW 4000 series engine would need to undergo this inspection every 15-24 months depending on utilization. The domestic HD models have a much higher utilization than the international configured models but even then the international fleet would need to under go another inspection within 24 months if not sooner. By staggering the PW's return to service once the fan blades have been inspected and the fleet is cleared UA could spread out the cost and limit operational impact. However depending on when the PW 777s return to service in 2021 (if it happens), UA would have to begin the process of inspecting fan blades again by late 2022 or early 2023 depending on utilization. This is something the company may choose to do especially if the additional maintenance cost related to TAI aren't to astronomical. If the entire PW fleet is to make it to 2027, in my unofficial estimate, UA would need to perform 3 or 4 more TAI inspections after these initial inspections are complete.

Staggering the return to service this year and next year could theoretically limit overall operational impact again depending on each frames utilization. Depending on overall maintenance cost among other factors I think both Airbus and Boeing may have an opportunity here should UA decided to begin retiring and replacing these frames in 2025 or even 2024.


It would not surprise me if UA retired a number of PW 777s to add to the number of spare engines in the fleet, and draw down utlization to space out inspections as much as possible.

The oldest 77As have been flown pretty hard since their domestic conversion. Those days might be over, giving way to a cushier schedule with fewer cycles to save on costly maintenance.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:59 pm

How extensive is the fan blade checks - removal time, need to be inspected by PW offsite?
How long grounded for normal inspection process per unit and what percentage of blades will be removed?
Will PW be paying for some of these more frequent checks and/or downtime?
UA could keep more spares instead of retiring units - spares would extend time between inspections.
Maybe the shorter frequencies of the Domestic units would indicate retirement sooner than the ER fleet.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:15 pm

We saw AA make some big adds in AUS. At some point United is going to have to start adding flights somewhere instead of cutting. It’s hard to increase revenue if you don’t have a schedule people want to fly.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:48 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
We saw AA make some big adds in AUS. At some point United is going to have to start adding flights somewhere instead of cutting. It’s hard to increase revenue if you don’t have a schedule people want to fly.


At some point, all of Scott Kirby's optimistic talk about post-pandemic growth and competing with AA/DL and the lo-cos is going to have to manifest in the schedule. Lots of United's proposed adds have fizzled for various reasons over the last few months. I recognize that these are still highly dynamic, uncertain times but United is going to need to reorient its model to be more leisure-focused, as that will be where demand returns soonest.

The JPMC conference is coming up Monday, and Kirby is due to speak. He's usually pretty candid in this setting, and Jamie Baker does a good job of asking relevant, difficult questions that require a thoughtful response. It should be a worthwhile listen.
 
Scarebus34
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Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:06 pm

codc10 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
We saw AA make some big adds in AUS. At some point United is going to have to start adding flights somewhere instead of cutting. It’s hard to increase revenue if you don’t have a schedule people want to fly.


At some point, all of Scott Kirby's optimistic talk about post-pandemic growth and competing with AA/DL and the lo-cos is going to have to manifest in the schedule. Lots of United's proposed adds have fizzled for various reasons over the last few months. I recognize that these are still highly dynamic, uncertain times but United is going to need to reorient its model to be more leisure-focused, as that will be where demand returns soonest.

The JPMC conference is coming up Monday, and Kirby is due to speak. He's usually pretty candid in this setting, and Jamie Baker does a good job of asking relevant, difficult questions that require a thoughtful response. It should be a worthwhile listen.

Sure is. They chased that Florida point to point flying and I’m not sure that turned out the way they expected. They’ve continually cut AUS which used to be a decent sized station for UA but some days only running one flight to ORD. One? I get the times are tough but if you don’t offer a schedule that people want, people will book on another airline. It’s going to be tough to be the worlds largest airline on the other side as Kirby claims if they keep giving up market share. The conservative mindset might have got them through the crisis but it won’t get them through the recovery.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:24 pm

The Seattle flight attendant base will close 5/2.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
sldispatcher
Posts: 526
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:55 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:54 pm

Acey559 wrote:
If anyone is interested, we received a crew resources update yesterday and were notified of two vacancy bids planned for March. One is open right now with the second to follow later this month. The vacancy later on is planned to re-open all (I believe) and of the categories that were closed last year at the beginning of COVID. As it stands, the following will be re-opening and up for bid:

IAH 777
DCA 777
DCA 756
LAX 756
SFO 756

No indication of exactly when those categories will re-open, but is good news nonetheless.


That is super good news
 
jayunited
Posts: 3434
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:26 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
We saw AA make some big adds in AUS. At some point United is going to have to start adding flights somewhere instead of cutting. It’s hard to increase revenue if you don’t have a schedule people want to fly.



I agree with your statement, and I certainly hope United will add more point to point flying but it is kind of a glass have empty glass half full type situation for United.

Take DEN and IAH when the April schedule goes into effect our DEN schedule will be down only 20% from our pre-COVID high and IAH will be down 26% from its pre-COVID high. United's April schedule at ORD will still be down a staggering 40% (keep in mind ORD was the largest hub pre-COVID). EWR's April schedule is down 51% (a slight improvement but not good enough in my opinion), IAD's April schedule is down 56% (believe it or not that is an improvement for IAD). Whereas out west SFO's April schedule will still be down a whopping 64% (no improvement at all) and finally LAX's April schedule is down 61%.

By this summer I would like to see UA launch some additional point to point routes targeting more leisure travelers especially if the US continues on this vaccination push and cases continue to drop and more states open.

By July it would be nice to see (trying to be realistic but there may be some optimism in the numbers) DEN down only 5%, IAH, down 8%-12%, ORD down 20%, EWR down 23%-26%, IAD down 34%, SFO down 36%, and LAX down 36% of their pre-COVID schedule. There does seem to be a lot of pent up demand for domestic travel hopefully starting in May we will start to see UA bulk up the schedule from all hubs so that perhaps we can get close to my realistic/optimistic numbers. LOL :lol:
 
AC4500
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:43 pm

LAXintl wrote:
The Seattle flight attendant base will close 5/2.

This is due to the pandemic, I'm assuming. I didn't even know UA had a Seattle FA base...
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:47 pm

A look at block hours being flown compared to 2019 baseline.

Image

https://i.ibb.co/k3mSpZZ/ualbhs.png
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Scarebus34
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:12 am

[photoid][/photoid]
LAXintl wrote:
A look at block hours being flown compared to 2019 baseline.

Image

https://i.ibb.co/k3mSpZZ/ualbhs.png

Cutting block hours going into April. Not quite sure what this management team is doing but their conservative posture is going to cost them.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1845
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:31 am

jayunited wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
We saw AA make some big adds in AUS. At some point United is going to have to start adding flights somewhere instead of cutting. It’s hard to increase revenue if you don’t have a schedule people want to fly.



I agree with your statement, and I certainly hope United will add more point to point flying but it is kind of a glass have empty glass half full type situation for United.

Take DEN and IAH when the April schedule goes into effect our DEN schedule will be down only 20% from our pre-COVID high and IAH will be down 26% from its pre-COVID high. United's April schedule at ORD will still be down a staggering 40% (keep in mind ORD was the largest hub pre-COVID). EWR's April schedule is down 51% (a slight improvement but not good enough in my opinion), IAD's April schedule is down 56% (believe it or not that is an improvement for IAD). Whereas out west SFO's April schedule will still be down a whopping 64% (no improvement at all) and finally LAX's April schedule is down 61%.

By this summer I would like to see UA launch some additional point to point routes targeting more leisure travelers especially if the US continues on this vaccination push and cases continue to drop and more states open.

By July it would be nice to see (trying to be realistic but there may be some optimism in the numbers) DEN down only 5%, IAH, down 8%-12%, ORD down 20%, EWR down 23%-26%, IAD down 34%, SFO down 36%, and LAX down 36% of their pre-COVID schedule. There does seem to be a lot of pent up demand for domestic travel hopefully starting in May we will start to see UA bulk up the schedule from all hubs so that perhaps we can get close to my realistic/optimistic numbers. LOL :lol:


For other carriers I would think that was super conservative. After watching UA, I think this is overly optimistic!
 
codc10
Posts: 3087
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:32 am

Scarebus34 wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
LAXintl wrote:
A look at block hours being flown compared to 2019 baseline.

Image

https://i.ibb.co/k3mSpZZ/ualbhs.png

Cutting block hours going into April. Not quite sure what this management team is doing but their conservative posture is going to cost them.


Easter falls early in April this year, so it makes sense that the spring break peak substantially comes in March. Even if 2021 were a normal year we might expect March to be a tick higher in terms of block hours.

If we are still around 48-50% vs. 2019 block hours by June when things should really be accelerating, or still at a considerable deficit to competitors, I will have concerns that UA is being left behind.
 
jmc1975
Posts: 3106
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2000 10:57 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:38 am

Since DEN-FLG has been upgauged to a CR7, could we expect DEN-PRC to follow suit?
.......
 
UA857
Posts: 707
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:07 am

8 out of the 22 GE 77Es are in storage can they be reactivated to cover P&W 77G/77E fleet?
 
UA857
Posts: 707
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:55 am

Is N67052 going back to ROW after its gear change?
 
codc10
Posts: 3087
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:14 am

UA857 wrote:
8 out of the 22 GE 77Es are in storage can they be reactivated to cover P&W 77G/77E fleet?


Yes. One is in IAD being prepped for return to service today. Another is in heavy maintenance at XMN. I don't know if more are planned to come back but it's likely, to cover vaccine/cargo flights (77F designation, no pax but additional ballast for W+B and approval for increased dry ice limits) and the currently grounded PW 77E fleet.

There are also a few more 789s due this year whenever Boeing resumes 787 deliveries.

UA857 wrote:
Is N67052 going back to ROW after its gear change?


Yes. 764s aren't coming back to active service (yet...).
 
dcajet
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:23 am

LAXintl wrote:
The Seattle flight attendant base will close 5/2.


Didn't UA close the SEA base back in 2014?

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/mor ... ndant.html
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:28 am

dcajet wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
The Seattle flight attendant base will close 5/2.


Didn't UA close the SEA base back in 2014?

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/mor ... ndant.html


SEA was reopened in 2019, to only close again now in 2021, though it has a small population of only 140 active flight attendants currently.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
codc10
Posts: 3087
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:33 am

dcajet wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
The Seattle flight attendant base will close 5/2.


Didn't UA close the SEA base back in 2014?

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/mor ... ndant.html


This was a satellite base that only opened last year and operated as a subset of SFO, with all services provided at the "main" base. The SEA FA domicile that closed in 2014 was a full-blown base with staff, administrative space, lounge, etc. UA is continuing to run with the satellite base concept elsewhere (PHX, SAN, AUS, TPA, FLL, MCO) which is geared toward reducing hotel expense in cities with a high number of resident FAs (who would otherwise commute to another base) and some more flexibility in staffing trips.
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:18 am

jmc1975 wrote:
Since DEN-FLG has been upgauged to a CR7, could we expect DEN-PRC to follow suit?


PRC is an EAS route and at-risk flying for OO, while FLG is not. They don’t put the CR7s on those routes, at least that I’ve ever seen.
 
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ChaseP
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:31 am

UA857 wrote:
Is N67052 going back to ROW after its gear change?


N67052 will go to HKG for its heavy check. The 767-400s will re-enter service later this summer.
 
UA857
Posts: 707
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 5:48 am

ChaseP wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Is N67052 going back to ROW after its gear change?


N67052 will go to HKG for its heavy check. The 767-400s will re-enter service later this summer.

Are you sure about that? The last thing I've ever heard about is that they may be retired?
 
redrooster3
Posts: 388
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2010 2:35 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:18 am

UA857 wrote:
ChaseP wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Is N67052 going back to ROW after its gear change?


N67052 will go to HKG for its heavy check. The 767-400s will re-enter service later this summer.

Are you sure about that? The last thing I've ever heard about is that they may be retired?


UA would not be investing into the 764s to have Gear Changes only to be retired...If anything, they'll be flown out to hubs for mandatory MX and flown back to ROW until their needs are needed.
Marry one of us, and you'll fly for free!
 
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STT757
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 12:34 pm

UA857 wrote:
ChaseP wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Is N67052 going back to ROW after its gear change?


N67052 will go to HKG for its heavy check. The 767-400s will re-enter service later this summer.

Are you sure about that? The last thing I've ever heard about is that they may be retired?


The 764s may be what replaces the 772A's, Continental originally had four in domestic/Hawaii configuration. Delta originally had all their 764s in domestic configurations. They don't carry as much cargo as the 77As, but they are comfortable, plenty of range. United has four 777-200ERs *Pratt powered* being converted into domestic configuration. Those combined with the 764s gives them 20 Domestic/Hawaii/Guam widebodies. Exactly what they need to replace the 772A's.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
jayunited
Posts: 3434
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:06 pm

UA857 wrote:
Are you sure about that? The last thing I've ever heard about is that they may be retired?


I'm sorry I mean no disrespect, but I have to call B.S. on this. No one at United is talking about retiring any widebody frames at this time especially with the uncertainty around the PW 777 fleet.

In fact quite the opposite is true which is why United is spending the money on required maintenance. We don't know when the 764s will return to service but UA leadership has never given any indication these frames would be retired.
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 674
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:59 pm

jayunited wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
We saw AA make some big adds in AUS. At some point United is going to have to start adding flights somewhere instead of cutting. It’s hard to increase revenue if you don’t have a schedule people want to fly.



I agree with your statement, and I certainly hope United will add more point to point flying but it is kind of a glass have empty glass half full type situation for United.

Take DEN and IAH when the April schedule goes into effect our DEN schedule will be down only 20% from our pre-COVID high and IAH will be down 26% from its pre-COVID high. United's April schedule at ORD will still be down a staggering 40% (keep in mind ORD was the largest hub pre-COVID). EWR's April schedule is down 51% (a slight improvement but not good enough in my opinion), IAD's April schedule is down 56% (believe it or not that is an improvement for IAD). Whereas out west SFO's April schedule will still be down a whopping 64% (no improvement at all) and finally LAX's April schedule is down 61%.

By this summer I would like to see UA launch some additional point to point routes targeting more leisure travelers especially if the US continues on this vaccination push and cases continue to drop and more states open.

By July it would be nice to see (trying to be realistic but there may be some optimism in the numbers) DEN down only 5%, IAH, down 8%-12%, ORD down 20%, EWR down 23%-26%, IAD down 34%, SFO down 36%, and LAX down 36% of their pre-COVID schedule. There does seem to be a lot of pent up demand for domestic travel hopefully starting in May we will start to see UA bulk up the schedule from all hubs so that perhaps we can get close to my realistic/optimistic numbers. LOL :lol:

I think they might go back and add some stuff in for April now that PSP was extended - May should really be the breakout month. If it’s not, there’s a problem. Obviously international will be slow to recover, but even that should rebound decently in key markets. UA needs to beef up domestically now - not wait.
 
codc10
Posts: 3087
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:25 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
We saw AA make some big adds in AUS. At some point United is going to have to start adding flights somewhere instead of cutting. It’s hard to increase revenue if you don’t have a schedule people want to fly.



I agree with your statement, and I certainly hope United will add more point to point flying but it is kind of a glass have empty glass half full type situation for United.

Take DEN and IAH when the April schedule goes into effect our DEN schedule will be down only 20% from our pre-COVID high and IAH will be down 26% from its pre-COVID high. United's April schedule at ORD will still be down a staggering 40% (keep in mind ORD was the largest hub pre-COVID). EWR's April schedule is down 51% (a slight improvement but not good enough in my opinion), IAD's April schedule is down 56% (believe it or not that is an improvement for IAD). Whereas out west SFO's April schedule will still be down a whopping 64% (no improvement at all) and finally LAX's April schedule is down 61%.

By this summer I would like to see UA launch some additional point to point routes targeting more leisure travelers especially if the US continues on this vaccination push and cases continue to drop and more states open.

By July it would be nice to see (trying to be realistic but there may be some optimism in the numbers) DEN down only 5%, IAH, down 8%-12%, ORD down 20%, EWR down 23%-26%, IAD down 34%, SFO down 36%, and LAX down 36% of their pre-COVID schedule. There does seem to be a lot of pent up demand for domestic travel hopefully starting in May we will start to see UA bulk up the schedule from all hubs so that perhaps we can get close to my realistic/optimistic numbers. LOL :lol:

I think they might go back and add some stuff in for April now that PSP was extended - May should really be the breakout month. If it’s not, there’s a problem. Obviously international will be slow to recover, but even that should rebound decently in key markets. UA needs to beef up domestically now - not wait.


Since yesterday I’ve learned some more about United’s plans for the next few months. I’m sure others have seen the same thing and can elaborate. Rest assured it won’t be status quo.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3434
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:26 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
We saw AA make some big adds in AUS. At some point United is going to have to start adding flights somewhere instead of cutting. It’s hard to increase revenue if you don’t have a schedule people want to fly.



I agree with your statement, and I certainly hope United will add more point to point flying but it is kind of a glass have empty glass half full type situation for United.

Take DEN and IAH when the April schedule goes into effect our DEN schedule will be down only 20% from our pre-COVID high and IAH will be down 26% from its pre-COVID high. United's April schedule at ORD will still be down a staggering 40% (keep in mind ORD was the largest hub pre-COVID). EWR's April schedule is down 51% (a slight improvement but not good enough in my opinion), IAD's April schedule is down 56% (believe it or not that is an improvement for IAD). Whereas out west SFO's April schedule will still be down a whopping 64% (no improvement at all) and finally LAX's April schedule is down 61%.

By this summer I would like to see UA launch some additional point to point routes targeting more leisure travelers especially if the US continues on this vaccination push and cases continue to drop and more states open.

By July it would be nice to see (trying to be realistic but there may be some optimism in the numbers) DEN down only 5%, IAH, down 8%-12%, ORD down 20%, EWR down 23%-26%, IAD down 34%, SFO down 36%, and LAX down 36% of their pre-COVID schedule. There does seem to be a lot of pent up demand for domestic travel hopefully starting in May we will start to see UA bulk up the schedule from all hubs so that perhaps we can get close to my realistic/optimistic numbers. LOL :lol:


For other carriers I would think that was super conservative. After watching UA, I think this is overly optimistic!


It was just announced yesterday starting April 1st New York state is dropping their mandatory 10 day quarantine for all domestic arriving passengers. According to New York's Port Authority domestic travel is still down nearly 62%. As much as we all (myself included) are complaining about UA at EWR, when looking at the big picture UA's April schedule is right where it should be down 51% and of all the carriers operating out of NYC airports I think UA still offers the capacity. Out west in the counties that make up the entire Bay Area (San Francisco, Sonoma, Napa, Marin, San Mateo, Solano, Alameda, Contra Costa, and Santa Clara) they have just move this month from their most restrictive tier which they've been living under since December to a less restrictive tier but still dealing with sever restrictions. And the counties who instituted the 10 mandatory quarantine will drop that requirement this month. Even here in Chicago, and the Chicagoland area, we are still living with some sever restrictions but mayors have been signaling their hope to have for more normalcy by summer.

Why is all of this important I think it paints a picture as to why UA played it conservatively with the April schedule but it also shows if restrictions are lifted UA may go back and add capacity in April if demand warrants, or we might see a more aggressive schedule in May.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1845
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:56 pm

jayunited wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
jayunited wrote:


I agree with your statement, and I certainly hope United will add more point to point flying but it is kind of a glass have empty glass half full type situation for United.

Take DEN and IAH when the April schedule goes into effect our DEN schedule will be down only 20% from our pre-COVID high and IAH will be down 26% from its pre-COVID high. United's April schedule at ORD will still be down a staggering 40% (keep in mind ORD was the largest hub pre-COVID). EWR's April schedule is down 51% (a slight improvement but not good enough in my opinion), IAD's April schedule is down 56% (believe it or not that is an improvement for IAD). Whereas out west SFO's April schedule will still be down a whopping 64% (no improvement at all) and finally LAX's April schedule is down 61%.

By this summer I would like to see UA launch some additional point to point routes targeting more leisure travelers especially if the US continues on this vaccination push and cases continue to drop and more states open.

By July it would be nice to see (trying to be realistic but there may be some optimism in the numbers) DEN down only 5%, IAH, down 8%-12%, ORD down 20%, EWR down 23%-26%, IAD down 34%, SFO down 36%, and LAX down 36% of their pre-COVID schedule. There does seem to be a lot of pent up demand for domestic travel hopefully starting in May we will start to see UA bulk up the schedule from all hubs so that perhaps we can get close to my realistic/optimistic numbers. LOL :lol:


For other carriers I would think that was super conservative. After watching UA, I think this is overly optimistic!


It was just announced yesterday starting April 1st New York state is dropping their mandatory 10 day quarantine for all domestic arriving passengers. According to New York's Port Authority domestic travel is still down nearly 62%. As much as we all (myself included) are complaining about UA at EWR, when looking at the big picture UA's April schedule is right where it should be down 51% and of all the carriers operating out of NYC airports I think UA still offers the capacity. Out west in the counties that make up the entire Bay Area (San Francisco, Sonoma, Napa, Marin, San Mateo, Solano, Alameda, Contra Costa, and Santa Clara) they have just move this month from their most restrictive tier which they've been living under since December to a less restrictive tier but still dealing with sever restrictions. And the counties who instituted the 10 mandatory quarantine will drop that requirement this month. Even here in Chicago, and the Chicagoland area, we are still living with some sever restrictions but mayors have been signaling their hope to have for more normalcy by summer.

Why is all of this important I think it paints a picture as to why UA played it conservatively with the April schedule but it also shows if restrictions are lifted UA may go back and add capacity in April if demand warrants, or we might see a more aggressive schedule in May.


I actually think the removal of the quarantine will do more bad for EWR then good. Many, many, many people were choosing to fly through EWR to avoid the quarantine. Now with JFK no longer being a pain for them, they won’t want to drive to NJ anymore.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1261
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread, Q1 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:06 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

For other carriers I would think that was super conservative. After watching UA, I think this is overly optimistic!


It was just announced yesterday starting April 1st New York state is dropping their mandatory 10 day quarantine for all domestic arriving passengers. According to New York's Port Authority domestic travel is still down nearly 62%. As much as we all (myself included) are complaining about UA at EWR, when looking at the big picture UA's April schedule is right where it should be down 51% and of all the carriers operating out of NYC airports I think UA still offers the capacity. Out west in the counties that make up the entire Bay Area (San Francisco, Sonoma, Napa, Marin, San Mateo, Solano, Alameda, Contra Costa, and Santa Clara) they have just move this month from their most restrictive tier which they've been living under since December to a less restrictive tier but still dealing with sever restrictions. And the counties who instituted the 10 mandatory quarantine will drop that requirement this month. Even here in Chicago, and the Chicagoland area, we are still living with some sever restrictions but mayors have been signaling their hope to have for more normalcy by summer.

Why is all of this important I think it paints a picture as to why UA played it conservatively with the April schedule but it also shows if restrictions are lifted UA may go back and add capacity in April if demand warrants, or we might see a more aggressive schedule in May.


I actually think the removal of the quarantine will do more bad for EWR then good. Many, many, many people were choosing to fly through EWR to avoid the quarantine. Now with JFK no longer being a pain for them, they won’t want to drive to NJ anymore.


That assumes demand is going to be static which it isn’t.

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