DaveMetroD wrote:

According to a paywalled Detroit News article, 9.3 million of those 14.1 million flew during January and February, meaning pre-Covid.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/travel/2021/02/08/detroit-metro-airport-slowest-year-since-1984/4371000001/

I find that hard to believe that January and February accounted for 9 Million passengers. That would mean DTW was on a pace for 54 million enplanements around 15 million more than it's best year..

DaveMetroD wrote:

According to a paywalled Detroit News article, 9.3 million of those 14.1 million flew during January and February, meaning pre-Covid.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/travel/2021/02/08/detroit-metro-airport-slowest-year-since-1984/4371000001/

Here is the article for everyone to read.

https://www.aviationpros.com/airports/n ... passengers.

Here are the actual numbers from the WCAA stats:
Month Passengers % versus 2019
Jan 2,676,886 8.5%
Feb 2,627,143 10.1%
Mar 1,546,362 -52.1%
Apr 178,094 -94.2%
May 295,929 -90.9%
Jun 580,054 -82.5%
Jul 907,232 -73.7%
Aug 1,024,285 -70.4%
Sep 974,241 -67.4%
Oct 1,155,958 -64.5%
Nov 1,043,760 -63.3%
Dec 1,092,991 -64.1%
Total 14,102,935 -61.6%

There were some math errors on the data posted on the site and/or the author's analysis also in that low-quality article. The "man on the street" quotes around the airline industry are always priceless. It was on the "biggest plane they got" to Orlando with "50 people on board" and they found a 23 year old to interview who hadn't flown in 2 years who "needed to get away".

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Here are the actual numbers from the WCAA stats:
Month Passengers % versus 2019
Jan 2,676,886 8.5%
Feb 2,627,143 10.1%
Mar 1,546,362 -52.1%
Apr 178,094 -94.2%
May 295,929 -90.9%
Jun 580,054 -82.5%
Jul 907,232 -73.7%
Aug 1,024,285 -70.4%
Sep 974,241 -67.4%
Oct 1,155,958 -64.5%
Nov 1,043,760 -63.3%
Dec 1,092,991 -64.1%
Total 14,102,935 -61.6%

There were some math errors on the data posted on the site and/or the author's analysis also in that low-quality article. The "man on the street" quotes around the airline industry are always priceless. It was on the "biggest plane they got" to Orlando with "50 people on board" and they found a 23 year old to interview who hadn't flown in 2 years who "needed to get away".

Actually those numbers look pretty darn good towards the end of the year. Detroit looks to be holding it's own at least there were a million enplanements in those months.

Yep. I'd be curious on the breakout of O&D % of normal versus connecting traffic % of normal. Hard to determine from that data.

Interesting how hot things were running in Feb 2020. 10.1% over 2019. On one hand TPAC all pretty much got shut down end of Jan 2020 due to COVID and they weren't running in Feb. Feb 2020 had an extra day being a leap year (29 vs 28) gives you an extra 3-4% right there and that extra day happened to be a Saturday. So, Feb 2020 had 5 Saturdays, which is not normal.

FWIW, in December 2020:

McNamera (Skyteam) flight operations were down 33.2% from 2019 (pretty impressive that DL was running 67% of its departures, albet a lot on different gauge aircraft - alot more CR2, CR9, A319 than usual)

North Terminal flight operations were down 46.3% from 2019. NK was running 69% of its departures in Dec 2020 vs 2019.

I'd say its entirely feasible that DL will be operating 70-75% of its depatures by summer. NK will probably be close to 90% if not higher.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Yep. I'd be curious on the breakout of O&D % of normal versus connecting traffic % of normal. Hard to determine from that data.

Interesting how hot things were running in Feb 2020. 10.1% over 2019. On one hand TPAC all pretty much got shut down end of Jan 2020 due to COVID and they weren't running in Feb. Feb 2020 had an extra day being a leap year (29 vs 28) gives you an extra 3-4% right there and that extra day happened to be a Saturday. So, Feb 2020 had 5 Saturdays, which is not normal.

FWIW, in December 2020:

McNamera (Skyteam) flight operations were down 33.2% from 2019 (pretty impressive that DL was running 67% of its departures, albet a lot on different gauge aircraft - alot more CR2, CR9, A319 than usual)

North Terminal flight operations were down 46.3% from 2019. NK was running 69% of its departures in Dec 2020 vs 2019.

I'd say its entirely feasible that DL will be operating 70-75% of its depatures by summer. NK will probably be close to 90% if not higher.

Agreed, I think these are pretty optimistic times at DTW compared to other places in the country. On a side not I was pretty disappointed that that very poorly written article was from the Detroit News you would think that that age old information source could get it right.

When I saw this news report, I immediately thought of the discussions about leakage on international flights from Detroit. Here is someone whose car is still stranded in Toronto, because pre-covid, she flew from Toronto to save about $1000 on her international ticket. I think those of us in the Detroit area are well aware that many, many people are going to other cities for international leisure travel because of these huge and regular price differences vis a vis Detroit, but here is another non-airliners.net example of it happening in real life.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/consumer ... r-closure/

NCAD95 wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Yep. I'd be curious on the breakout of O&D % of normal versus connecting traffic % of normal. Hard to determine from that data.

Interesting how hot things were running in Feb 2020. 10.1% over 2019. On one hand TPAC all pretty much got shut down end of Jan 2020 due to COVID and they weren't running in Feb. Feb 2020 had an extra day being a leap year (29 vs 28) gives you an extra 3-4% right there and that extra day happened to be a Saturday. So, Feb 2020 had 5 Saturdays, which is not normal.

FWIW, in December 2020:

McNamera (Skyteam) flight operations were down 33.2% from 2019 (pretty impressive that DL was running 67% of its departures, albet a lot on different gauge aircraft - alot more CR2, CR9, A319 than usual)

North Terminal flight operations were down 46.3% from 2019. NK was running 69% of its departures in Dec 2020 vs 2019.

I'd say its entirely feasible that DL will be operating 70-75% of its depatures by summer. NK will probably be close to 90% if not higher.

Agreed, I think these are pretty optimistic times at DTW compared to other places in the country. On a side not I was pretty disappointed that that very poorly written article was from the Detroit News you would think that that age old information source could get it right.

I actually disagree and think these are some of the darkest times for DTW and will be moving forward.

Not a single airline has announced scheduled passenger service for 2020 and the only route that is starting is WN to Houston-Hobby at the expense of Dallas-Love.

I think the expectations of DTW spotters/enthusiasts needs to be re-evaluated as the market begins to recover. Mediocre ULCC service from Southwest and Frontier, nothing more than a flight or two on Alaska and JetBlue, less than par opportunities by AA & UA and re focusing Spirit opportunities elsewhere.

No one is announcing new service because they are frankly trying to restore the service they had.

NK is trying to restore its DTW network, like I said they were at 70% over the December holidays and will probably be closer to 90% by Summer
DL is playing in the most conservative of the US3, and hasn't announced "new routes" anywhere. They are trying to rebuild their network, like I said were at 67% of flights in December and will probably be at 70-75% this summer.

I am using data, and providing a tepid estimate on the recovery of the market.
Optimistic isn't the appropriate phrase to use, but it is noteworthy that DTW's operations, is outpacing other markets because primarily it is a hub for DL.
DTW's situation really is about the same as much of the country currently.

Like you said, earlier, right now its all about sun belt, FL, TX, Mountain West leading the pack.

Puissance wrote:

When I saw this news report, I immediately thought of the discussions about leakage on international flights from Detroit. Here is someone whose car is still stranded in Toronto, because pre-covid, she flew from Toronto to save about $1000 on her international ticket. I think those of us in the Detroit area are well aware that many, many people are going to other cities for international leisure travel because of these huge and regular price differences vis a vis Detroit, but here is another non-airliners.net example of it happening in real life.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/consumer ... r-closure/

Three years ago the family and I drove from Michigan to YYZ, and flew EI to Europe (saving ~$600 a person compared to a similar flight from DTW). On the return, one of our checked bags somehow didn’t get loaded on the plane. I reported it in YYZ, the clerk saw the bag was still in Dublin, and I was told the bag would be delivered to my house in Michigan. Two days later a van pulls up to my house with a Michigan license plate and drops the bag off.

Being curious, I asked the van driver if he came from DTW based on his plate. He said no, and said that even though he lived in Detroit, his “full time” job involved driving from Michigan to YYZ four days a week, and returning back to Michigan with missed luggage from YYZ flights. I don’t know if it was purely EI missed luggage (or other airlines as well), and how much luggage he dropped off before me, but he said he had three more houses to go that day. Anyway, the fact that someone had a full time job driving missed luggage from YYZ just to people’s home Michigan goes to show how much leakage there is.

You'd think that F9 would at least fly to TPA by now. Peer markets with less O&D have 3 to 4 carriers yet DTW only has 2 dedicated carriers.

MCO, which is DTW's largest O&D market and larger by a hair than ATL-MCO has 2 daily carriers, a Saturday only WN flight and a wacky 3 day here, 6 day there, 14x weekly for a week or two then back to 3x weekly schedule on F9. There's no reason why DTW can't have daily service on DL, NK, F9, and WN or B6. Right now, peer cities have. 3 or 4 carriers to the Miami Area, DTW has 2. It's pathetic. Not to mention how markets with absolutely tiny O&D markets are getting flights to BZN.

flymco753 wrote:

You'd think that F9 would at least fly to TPA by now. Peer markets with less O&D have 3 to 4 carriers yet DTW only has 2 dedicated carriers.

MCO, which is DTW's largest O&D market and larger by a hair than ATL-MCO has 2 daily carriers, a Saturday only WN flight and a wacky 3 day here, 6 day there, 14x weekly for a week or two then back to 3x weekly schedule on F9. There's no reason why DTW can't have daily service on DL, NK, F9, and WN or B6. Right now, peer cities have. 3 or 4 carriers to the Miami Area, DTW has 2. It's pathetic. Not to mention how markets with absolutely tiny O&D markets are getting flights to BZN.

AA or UA aren’t going to challenge DL from DTW for obvious reasons. Why WN or especially F9 don’t challenge NK more from DTW, I honestly don’t know. G4 could probably offer more options from FNT too, if they wanted. Either way, both DL and NK seem to have unchallenged status in their respective realms from DTW, and as such feel no pressure to offer more flights from DTW than they have to. Better to offer less and charge a premium, especially during Covid.

In DLs case, they seem to be very content to connect DTW pax through ATL or MSP, even when there is enough pax demand from DTW and associated cachement to make a nonstop work (ANC is example #1). And to be blunt, if DL knows the DTW pax will almost always opt for the ATL/MSP connect over taking AA/UA, what incentive is there for DL to offer a nonstop flight from DTW?

But let’s be clear, that situation has far more to do with DL & NK enjoying the benefits of no DTW competition... and far less to do with the Michigan economy and local passenger demand.

These are all interesting points, but again kind of moot when overall DTW is running at about ~40% of pre-COVID passenger volumes.
This isn't like some sun/beach/mountain west markets that are at 70%+ of pre-COVID passenger volumes, like TPA for example.

There is already so much capacity chasing far too few passengers in the current environment.
I can fly DL roundtrip DTW-MCO first week of March in basic economy for $58 OW / $116 roundtrip. First week of March.....only 2 weeks out, during what is traditionally one of the big college spring break weeks in the state. In normal times, DL would be lucky to find something for under $300-400 roundtrip this close in.

DL has only adjusted its schedule out at this time through April 11. They haven't really pulled-down / adjusted much beyond that and seems like they are waiting to get a better picture of how demand is shaping up for post-spring break timeframe.

I also suspect DL will probably make a press release within the next couple of weeks about new/updated/modified summer flying and/or seasonal markets.
We'll see, as any of the national parks/resorter/markets are going to see all sorts of influx of air service this summer.

I'm curious to see what DL schedules on DTW into markets like TVC & PLN this summer. PLN was getting 76 seater CR9s (with seat blocking) for the first time last summer (They did occasionally get a summer seasonal ARJ upgrade from SF3 back in the day though). I'd be curious if possibly BGR makes a return, and outside chance at BZN (although increased capacity from MSP & SLC is far more likely).

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

No one is announcing new service because they are frankly trying to restore the service they had.

NK is trying to restore its DTW network, like I said they were at 70% over the December holidays and will probably be closer to 90% by Summer
DL is playing in the most conservative of the US3, and hasn't announced "new routes" anywhere. They are trying to rebuild their network, like I said were at 67% of flights in December and will probably be at 70-75% this summer.

I am using data, and providing a tepid estimate on the recovery of the market.
Optimistic isn't the appropriate phrase to use, but it is noteworthy that DTW's operations, is outpacing other markets because primarily it is a hub for DL.
DTW's situation really is about the same as much of the country currently.

Like you said, earlier, right now its all about sun belt, FL, TX, Mountain West leading the pack.

Are you kidding me airlines are announcing new service from their hubs everywhere. DTW get's nothing from it's hub carrier and LCC. DTW in the Northwest days was linked to many mountain destinations but yet Delta will not add one destination to Detroit for whatever reason.

kavok wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

You'd think that F9 would at least fly to TPA by now. Peer markets with less O&D have 3 to 4 carriers yet DTW only has 2 dedicated carriers.

MCO, which is DTW's largest O&D market and larger by a hair than ATL-MCO has 2 daily carriers, a Saturday only WN flight and a wacky 3 day here, 6 day there, 14x weekly for a week or two then back to 3x weekly schedule on F9. There's no reason why DTW can't have daily service on DL, NK, F9, and WN or B6. Right now, peer cities have. 3 or 4 carriers to the Miami Area, DTW has 2. It's pathetic. Not to mention how markets with absolutely tiny O&D markets are getting flights to BZN.

AA or UA aren’t going to challenge DL from DTW for obvious reasons. Why WN or especially F9 don’t challenge NK more from DTW, I honestly don’t know. G4 could probably offer more options from FNT too, if they wanted. Either way, both DL and NK seem to have unchallenged status in their respective realms from DTW, and as such feel no pressure to offer more flights from DTW than they have to. Better to offer less and charge a premium, especially during Covid.

In DLs case, they seem to be very content to connect DTW pax through ATL or MSP, even when there is enough pax demand from DTW and associated cachement to make a nonstop work (ANC is example #1). And to be blunt, if DL knows the DTW pax will almost always opt for the ATL/MSP connect over taking AA/UA, what incentive is there for DL to offer a nonstop flight from DTW?

But let’s be clear, that situation has far more to do with DL & NK enjoying the benefits of no DTW competition... and far less to do with the Michigan economy and local passenger demand.

This has been talked about over and over again on this thread yet people chose to keep their heads buried in the sand for what ever reason and I'm sure the airport knows about it as well and fails at addressing the issue. The only way I chose Delta when a connection is when the price is equal. If I can get a cheaper fare else forced to make a connection I'm booking away from Delta. I actually think the airport should be actively trying to get G4 here in Detroit to apply pressure on NK and DL.I blame the airport for not effectively marketing Detroit.

kavok wrote:

Puissance wrote:

When I saw this news report, I immediately thought of the discussions about leakage on international flights from Detroit. Here is someone whose car is still stranded in Toronto, because pre-covid, she flew from Toronto to save about $1000 on her international ticket. I think those of us in the Detroit area are well aware that many, many people are going to other cities for international leisure travel because of these huge and regular price differences vis a vis Detroit, but here is another non-airliners.net example of it happening in real life.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/consumer ... r-closure/

Three years ago the family and I drove from Michigan to YYZ, and flew EI to Europe (saving ~$600 a person compared to a similar flight from DTW). On the return, one of our checked bags somehow didn’t get loaded on the plane. I reported it in YYZ, the clerk saw the bag was still in Dublin, and I was told the bag would be delivered to my house in Michigan. Two days later a van pulls up to my house with a Michigan license plate and drops the bag off.

Being curious, I asked the van driver if he came from DTW based on his plate. He said no, and said that even though he lived in Detroit, his “full time” job involved driving from Michigan to YYZ four days a week, and returning back to Michigan with missed luggage from YYZ flights. I don’t know if it was purely EI missed luggage (or other airlines as well), and how much luggage he dropped off before me, but he said he had three more houses to go that day. Anyway, the fact that someone had a full time job driving missed luggage from YYZ just to people’s home Michigan goes to show how much leakage there is.

I had a family friend who made a handsome living on driving people back and forth to YYZ to catch international flights. Now while I understand we can't have flights every where from DTW that YYZ or ORD has but we can surely support a FI flight.

...I really don't understand all the DL & NK hate on this thread......let alone during COVID..... when they by far and away are the single two most important carriers in the market that are the most dedicated to providing air service, employment, and supporting the regions air service needs.

Seems like a tug of war discussion here whether it has to do with one thing or another. The airport can't keep beating a dead horse when it's already hard to justify adding service that peer cities can support simply because of their larger disposable incomes coupled with their growing populations.

Detroit is a budget market and people aren't visiting to vacation, they fly into TVC or GRR.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

...I really don't understand all the DL & NK hate on this thread......let alone during COVID..... when they by far and away are the single two most important carriers in the market that are the most dedicated to providing air service, employment, and supporting the regions air service needs.

It's not hate at all it's the fact that they manipulate the market rather than enhancing it. There are many markets Delta could add from Detroit that it doesn't controlling the growth. Let them add markets out of Detroit like they do in their other markets. DTW is the last to get any new service from them. NK could add quite a few flights that Detroiters would use if they were offered but they chose to be loyal to other markets and let's face it Detroit made Spirit what it is today. You have the wrong perspective it's not hate it's issues that are not being addressed for what ever reason that other airports are taking care of for their respective markets. The airport needs to find a carrier that is fully vested in this market and up until now there is no one who has stepped forward to fill that role.

...yet DTW is one of just a handful of current airports in the country that in the COVID era still has multiple daily flights to Asia and Europe.......

....do tell.....WHO should be addressing it.

The "AIRPORT" doesn't create air service out of thin air. Trust me, DFW didn't approach AA and say "boy we are desperate here boys, we really, really, really, really, really, really need you to start an RJ flight up to IDA, since you know we are desperate to grow the market."

Each carrier has different strategies at this time. I don't put a lot of stock into what anyone is doing in 2021 when they are literally chasing whatever small pocket of demand / cash flow they can find.

Who exactly should DTW find that is more "committed" to growing air service at DTW than DL or NK....in the post COVID environment????


....at 40% of pre COVID passenger volumes????
If it weren't for all of the government infused money this year, we'd be lucky to have what we've got today.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

...yet DTW is one of just a handful of current airports in the country that in the COVID era still has multiple daily flights to Asia and Europe.......

It this right here is why Detroit should be getting more attention from other carriers than it does when it comes to expansion. Anyway this thread is not about going back and forth about this it's about talking about the goings on or lack there of in the Detroit market not arguing amongst ourselves because that just dilutes the objective. We are not going to agree on everything and that's OK but we shouldn't attack others for their thoughts when we are all in this together and have the same vision. To have the best diverse market that we can that serves ALL sectors of the market. It's not OK for a person to have to drive 4 hours to another airport to access affordable air travel in a market the size of Detroit. I'm sure that's something we can all agree on.

...if it weren't for the DL hub in the COVID era, DTW would currently have ZERO scheduled passenger service to Europe & Asia.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

...if it weren't for the DL hub in the COVID era, DTW would currently have ZERO scheduled passenger service to Europe & Asia.

True but compared to other hubs we have a total of one TATL flight and again your talking covid these are not normal times and you can't ascertain what the market will bear. Let me say this Boston has more Skyteam service to Europe than Detroit and Detroit is Delta's number two hub. That being said after covid is over we can carry more than one daily ICN flight then.

In normal times BOS is a far bigger market for TATL service than DTW. You can't compare the air service dynamics of a market like BOS to DTW that have vastly different economies, population size, socioeconomic factors, ex-pat populations, and inbound/outbound tourism? BOS has a huge knowledge-based economy, tech sector, and higher-ed that all have much larger population too of high income households that far greater in numbers that SE Michigan.

You can't tell me with a straight face that DTW could support service to EDI or LIS?

FWIW current DL/Skyteam TATL / TPAC service.

AF CDG B789 3x weekly
DL AMS A359 daily
DL BRU A333 3x weekly cargo only
DL ICN A359 daily
DL HND A359 3x week;y

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

In normal times BOS is a far bigger market for TATL service than DTW. You can't compare the air service dynamics of a market like BOS to DTW that have vastly different economies, population size, socioeconomic factors, and ex-pat populations.

FWIW current DL/Skyteam TATL / TPAC service.

AF CDG 789 3x weekly
DL AMS A359 daily
DL BRU A333 3x weekly cargo only
DL ICN A359 daily
DL HND A359 3x week;y

But Detroit is a hub and should be able to carry more capacity on that fact alone. What other carrier in the current environment has more international flights from a non hub vs a hub. Sorry BRU doesn't count here and as I said if DTW can carry a daily flight in these times than it can carry 2 daily in normal times you can't argue that. No but there are markets DTW can support that are being ignored.

The TATL & TPAC service right now from DTW is primarily to maintain network and cargo flow between JV partners.
I'm not sure what you are trying to argue but what is going on in BOS is not even related or relevant to the DTW market.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Why are you even trying to compare BOS to DTW?

Because Detroit is a MAJOR hub for Delta fielding a lot of connections Boston is not. Why are you denying that there is a lot of untapped potential in the Detroit market that is not being addressed.

BOS is a vastly bigger O&D market to Europe.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

BOS is a vastly bigger O&D market to Europe.

That doesn't matter Detroit is a hub. Oneworld and Star are not dumping capacity into Boston at the current time they are feeding their core hubs fielding connections. The whole point of this conversation is the amount of resources Delta throws at the Detroit market verses it's other markets and and in my opinion Detroit is last on the list and has been for a long time running now.

I'm not trying to come across as a jerk, just trying to challenge some of these points.
I have a hard time telling if you are referring to what was happening pre-COVID, the dynamics during COVID, or how things may recover in the post-COVID era.

Each airline has different strategies as to how they build their network. For DL, their primary TATL gateways have been JFK & ATL and were in the process of building-up BOS as a Skyteam TATL gateway. BOS has a lot of favorable attributes - its a growing market, a thriving knowledge-based economy (tech, finance, medical/pharma, consultancies/professional services) that have a higher propensity for business travel, global/world-class higher education research universities, a sizable population of high income individuals, a metro area that was seeing an influx of young upwarldly mobile residents, international travel/tourism appeal. More importantly a growing market that was highly fragmented for air service with no real outright dominant carrier for international travel.
BOS has been strategic growth for DL / Skyteam.

DTW is a mature air service market with relatively stagnant organic growth. The dynamics in DTW are nothing like BOS. The size of the TATL market is much, much smaller, even accounting for whatever cost-sensitive leakage there has been to YYZ, ORD, or connecting over places like IAD, PHL, or CLT.

Post-COVID, its likely that TATL will quickly rebuild between JV partner hubs as capacity is restored. This means ramping up more capacity on routes like DTW, MSP, ATL, JFK - AMS, CDG, LHR before more thin stuff comes back like DTW-MUC or ATL-STR.

NCAD95 wrote:

and as I said if DTW can carry a daily flight in these times than it can carry 2 daily in normal times you can't argue that.

I’m going to argue that. That really isn’t how it works.

International passenger demand is significantly impaired. Delta likely isn’t getting anywhere near decent load factors on routes like the daily DTW-ICN during these times. Doubling the capacity during “normal times” won’t subsequently increase demand for the route.

As PSU.DTW.SCE mentioned, flights like DTW-AMS/ICN are taking advantage of increased cargo demand and partner connections.

If a route is operating at X capacity during these times that matches or exceeds 2019 levels of capacity, that - in practically no way - means it can feasibly operate at 2X the capacity during “normal times”. Otherwise, that would mean routes like AA’s DFW-LIM should support 2x daily 787-8s, AA’s MIA-SDQ should support 14x daily 737s, or Delta’s JFK-ACC should support 2x daily 767s post-COVID.

flymco753 wrote:

Seems like a tug of war discussion here whether it has to do with one thing or another. The airport can't keep beating a dead horse when it's already hard to justify adding service that peer cities can support simply because of their larger disposable incomes coupled with their growing populations.

Detroit is a budget market and people aren't visiting to vacation, they fly into TVC or GRR.

Not true. My parents just went up with some friends to their cabin in the Northern Micgigan (not the UP) and they opted to fly into DTW, rent a car, eat enough Polish food to feed half of the entire Midwest in Hamtramck, and then made the 3.5 hour drive, all because it was easier to fly nonstop to DTW than do the whole DTW/ORD connection (and the connections available up to TVC and even MBS were absolutely atrocious).

flymco753 wrote:

You'd think that F9 would at least fly to TPA by now. Peer markets with less O&D have 3 to 4 carriers yet DTW only has 2 dedicated carriers.

MCO, which is DTW's largest O&D market and larger by a hair than ATL-MCO has 2 daily carriers, a Saturday only WN flight and a wacky 3 day here, 6 day there, 14x weekly for a week or two then back to 3x weekly schedule on F9. There's no reason why DTW can't have daily service on DL, NK, F9, and WN or B6. Right now, peer cities have. 3 or 4 carriers to the Miami Area, DTW has 2. It's pathetic. Not to mention how markets with absolutely tiny O&D markets are getting flights to BZN.

Who are these peer cities you keep mentioning? Could it be these peer cities have more demand than DTW to Tampa, Orlando and the Miami area thus the reason for 3 or 4 carriers on those routes? Or those airlines feel they can or do make more money flying from those cities instead of Detroit.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

...if it weren't for the DL hub in the COVID era, DTW would currently have ZERO scheduled passenger service to Europe & Asia.

DL aside, DTW has untapped potential to Asia (read: Middle East & South Asia), so this could be a good time for a new entrant.

DL should be counting its blessings that EK/TK/QR haven't launched DTW service yet. Given the high number of immigrants from Bangladesh, India, Lebanon, Iraq, and other countries in the middle east and South Asia living in the Detroit area, it seems like only a matter of time. (https://datausa.io/profile/geo/michigan)

Look at ATL, it's a SkyTeam-only hub yet both TK (Star) & QR (oneworld) have served it and are continuing to. I know DTW market size is < ATL, but non-alliance hubs haven't scared away the ME3.

Just a projection here, but we'll see an ME3 carrier serving DTW by 2023.

Why do some people think that DTW/Detroit is just the City of Detroit?
People aren't all poor or unworldly around here.
Why keep going back on that non-fact like a broken record?

But since the market is leisure travel now...
The people I've been around aren't going to take a trip to Bozeman, the mountains or wherever.
They're going to drive to their cabin, favorite campground or hotel up north for those short stay vacations.
For flying destinations they're going to Florida or the Caribbean(includes the Yucatan).
If money is an issue they're using Spirit or if not, then Delta.
Most know that some of those other airlines can leave you stranded if the scheduled plane has issues.

DaveMetroD wrote:

Why do some people think that DTW/Detroit is just the City of Detroit?
People aren't all poor or unworldly around here.
Why keep going back on that non-fact like a broken record?

It is not about DTW or Metro Detroit, it's about other hubs nursing on Metro Detroit feed and catchment. Protecting their own business.

And the main goal is to get this thread closed by throwing tantrum and make it unmageable for moderators.

If we want to keep this thread just ignore such comments.

dtw2hyd wrote:

DaveMetroD wrote:

Why do some people think that DTW/Detroit is just the City of Detroit?
People aren't all poor or unworldly around here.
Why keep going back on that non-fact like a broken record?

It is not about DTW or Metro Detroit, it's about other hubs nursing on Metro Detroit feed and catchment. Protecting their own business.

And the main goal is to get this thread closed by throwing tantrum and make it unmageable for moderators.

If we want to keep this thread just ignore such comments.

Actually don't ignore them, report it to the moderators.
I already have done it once and someone else had beat me to another one that needed removing.
I didn't think the latest message would qualify for removal so it wasn't reported.

The only issue I see Delta has(my opinion) with DTW is that they route DTW traffic to the Caribbean/Yucatan through ATL with a few exceptions.
They know they can get away with it. The people using Delta Rewards are going to take the connection over a non-stop. The price sensitive traffic goes to a NK non-stop.
They're happy to get the remainder.

n2dru wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

You'd think that F9 would at least fly to TPA by now. Peer markets with less O&D have 3 to 4 carriers yet DTW only has 2 dedicated carriers.

MCO, which is DTW's largest O&D market and larger by a hair than ATL-MCO has 2 daily carriers, a Saturday only WN flight and a wacky 3 day here, 6 day there, 14x weekly for a week or two then back to 3x weekly schedule on F9. There's no reason why DTW can't have daily service on DL, NK, F9, and WN or B6. Right now, peer cities have. 3 or 4 carriers to the Miami Area, DTW has 2. It's pathetic. Not to mention how markets with absolutely tiny O&D markets are getting flights to BZN.

Who are these peer cities you keep mentioning? Could it be these peer cities have more demand than DTW to Tampa, Orlando and the Miami area thus the reason for 3 or 4 carriers on those routes? Or those airlines feel they can or do make more money flying from those cities instead of Detroit.

Peer markets include midwest cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, etc and also include those airports on the eastern half of the US with similar O&D sizes. I also point this out with TPA & RSW because AirTran operated both TPA & RSW-DTW for years. Once they announced the merger with WN they pulled TPA and made RSW seasonal before completely ending both leaving only MCO & ATL. At the time of the merger they only flew to ATL so there has been 3 carriers to TPA before for a while.

I'm glad this thread is actually having a productive conversation unlike previous threads. If any of you have ever attended a Polish holiday, it's a lot like this thread but you sit at a table across from each other, drinking and eating pierogi I kid you not. The older generations would usually accompany their drink with a cigarette.

DaveMetroD wrote:

Actually don't ignore them, report it to the moderators.

That just increases workload on crew, and a wrong perception that DTW threads are not manageable, the thread goes to slammer.

Ignoring unnecessary posts is the best option.

flymco753 wrote:

n2dru wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

You'd think that F9 would at least fly to TPA by now. Peer markets with less O&D have 3 to 4 carriers yet DTW only has 2 dedicated carriers.

MCO, which is DTW's largest O&D market and larger by a hair than ATL-MCO has 2 daily carriers, a Saturday only WN flight and a wacky 3 day here, 6 day there, 14x weekly for a week or two then back to 3x weekly schedule on F9. There's no reason why DTW can't have daily service on DL, NK, F9, and WN or B6. Right now, peer cities have. 3 or 4 carriers to the Miami Area, DTW has 2. It's pathetic. Not to mention how markets with absolutely tiny O&D markets are getting flights to BZN.

Who are these peer cities you keep mentioning? Could it be these peer cities have more demand than DTW to Tampa, Orlando and the Miami area thus the reason for 3 or 4 carriers on those routes? Or those airlines feel they can or do make more money flying from those cities instead of Detroit.

Peer markets include midwest cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, etc

Come on. Show better command of fact. Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh don't have dominant hub carriers. DL's dominance at DTW inhibits service by other carriers that don't have hub volume or frequency. The other side is that DL's hub yields far more flight frequency and non-stop destinations than Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, or Pittsburgh can even imagine. DTW isn't a big enough O&D market to support four or five carriers to (any but a few of the most) major destinations. DTW domestic O&D numbers aren't in the same league as LAX, ORD, DEN (or even SEA). Think DCA.

Any carrier wanting to add DTW service could sub-lease a gate or get something from the airport authority with ease.

In regards to DL from DTW:

I actually think their TATL/TPAC international network (PreCovid) was very appropriate for DTW. I agree with another poster that there may be some room for improvement to the Caribbean, but in general I think DLs network is very good from DTW, given the size of local market. I am not even going to get into a “during Covid” international discussion because it is all based on non-existent demand or speculation.

In terms of DL’s ticket cost, I don’t fault Delta for trying to maximize their profits. When IND, CVG, PIT etc. previously had their nonstop CDG flight, their ticket cost was similar to DTW. The point is, DL can sell a ticket at that cost, so why wouldn’t they? Comparing cost to YYZ is a bit of a unicorn situation because YYZ is in Canada. Even comparing YYZ to ORD (which has both a Star and OW hub), YYZ was almost always significantly cheaper than ORD. I do think more should have been done to attract someone like EI or FI to the DTW market (increasing options), but that obviously is not DLs fault either. I also don’t think DLs ticket cost would change that much if EI/FI served DTW, just like DLs sun destinations don’t drop in cost that much because of NK.

To be blunt, from an international perspective, I give DL’s DTW a lot of credit and am definitely not critical of it, pre or post Covid.

Where I do fault DL’s network is more on the domestic offerings from DTW. Reason 1: During Covid, DL has launched a handful of new flights to leisure destinations in 2021 that didn’t exist previously, but none of them from DTW, only from ATL, MSP or SLC.

Reason 2: PreCovid, it seemed logical that DTW/MSP served as bookends of the Midwest flows. Going west, you connected in MSP. Going east, you connected in DTW. But if you dug deeper, more often than not, the situation would be that to a US Eastern midsize city XXX, DL would fly DTW say 3x daily and MSP 1x daily. Going to a Western midsized city, DL would fly MSP 3x daily and often there was no DTW service at all. And that was always the kicker. Even in 2021, Why does DL fly MSP-ANC 3x daily in the summer, but not a single flight from DTW, when MSP also has a 1x flight to SAV that overlies DTW? There are several examples of situations like this.

It just seems for many domestic routes, when possible DL opts to route domestic connections (particularly East-West) over ATL/MSP and away from DTW, and then because those connections are being made elsewhere, that reduction in feeder flights to DTW inhibits the opportunity for a borderline nonstop route to be offered by DL from DTW.

MIflyer12 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

n2dru wrote:

Who are these peer cities you keep mentioning? Could it be these peer cities have more demand than DTW to Tampa, Orlando and the Miami area thus the reason for 3 or 4 carriers on those routes? Or those airlines feel they can or do make more money flying from those cities instead of Detroit.

Peer markets include midwest cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, etc

Come on. Show better command of fact. Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh don't have dominant hub carriers. DL's dominance at DTW inhibits service by other carriers that don't have hub volume or frequency. The other side is that DL's hub yields far more flight frequency and non-stop destinations than Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, or Pittsburgh can even imagine. DTW isn't a big enough O&D market to support four or five carriers to (any but a few of the most) major destinations. DTW domestic O&D numbers aren't in the same league as LAX, ORD, DEN (or even SEA). Think DCA.

Any carrier wanting to add DTW service could sub-lease a gate or get something from the airport authority with ease.

I disagree with that,. In my opinion the airport it self is not that friendly when it comes to bringing in new talent. Proof of that is the airports track record at gaining new service when other airports of it's market size have no issue attracting new service. Just think in terms of when the last time was that a carrier came into Detroit and opened up a new unserved market. The last time I can think of was WOW Air adding KEF. So too say that Detroit is a very friendly when it comes to getting money to start new service is a streach. Every one is going to other markets that are truly friendly to adding and enhancing their choices for customers. We have heard now serval comments confirming leakage due to the higher than average price for air travel out of DTW one would think there is enough there to add a 54 or 5 weekly TATL flight by an LCC to cater to that leakage.

A quick and dirty analysis, looking at flights for today:

MCO:
DTW 10 DL-6x (739, 2x 321, 3x 753); NK-3x (3x 320), F9 -1x (320)
MSP 11 DL-5x (3x 739, 752, 333); SY-4x (4x738), WN-1x (738) NK -1x (320)
CLE 5 F9-3x (A20N, 2x 321), UA - 1x (738), NK - 1x (320)
PIT 2 NK-1x (320) WN - 1x (73G)
CMH 1 WN-1x (738)

TPA:
DTW 8 DL-6x (6x A321), NK-2x (320, 321)
MSP 5 DL-4x (4x A321), SY-1x (738)
CLE 1 F9 1x(320)
PIT 1 WN 1x (738
CMH 0

MIA
DTW 2 DL-2x (319, 321)
MSP 3 DL-2x (2x 321), SY-1x (738)
CLE 1 AA-1x(738)
PIT 1 AA-1x(E70)
CMH 1 AA-1x(ERJ)

(Do you notice that AA isn't even flying DTW/MSP - MIA currently. AA is supposedly going to resume DTW-MIA in April at this point)

kavok wrote:

In regards to DL from DTW:

I actually think their TATL/TPAC international network (PreCovid) was very appropriate for DTW. I agree with another poster that there may be some room for improvement to the Caribbean, but in general I think DLs network is very good from DTW, given the size of local market.

In terms of DL’s ticket cost, I don’t fault Delta for trying to maximize their profits. When IND, CVG, PIT etc. previously had their nonstop CDG flight, their ticket cost was similar to DTW. The point is, DL can sell a ticket at that cost, so why wouldn’t they? Comparing cost to YYZ is a bit of a unicorn situation because YYZ is in Canada. Even comparing YYZ to ORD (which has both a Star and OW hub), YYZ was almost always significantly cheaper than ORD. I do think more should have been done to attract someone like EI or FI to the DTW market (increasing options), but that obviously is not DLs fault either. I also don’t think DLs ticket cost would drop that much of EI/FI served DTW.

Where I do fault DL’s network is more on the domestic offerings from DTW. Reason 1: During Covid, DL has launched a handful of new flights to leisure destinations that didn’t exist previously, but none of them from DTW, only from ATL, MSP or SLC.

Reason 2: PreCovid, it seemed logical that DTW/MSP served as bookends of the Midwest flows. Going west, you connected in MSP. Going east, you connected in DTW. But if you dug deeper, more often than not, the situation would be that to a US Eastern midsize city XXX, DL would fly DTW say 3x daily and MSP 1x daily. Going to a Western midsized city, DL would fly MSP 3x daily and often there was no DTW service at all. And that was always the kicker. Even in 2021, Why does DL fly MSP-ANC 3x daily in the summer, but not a single flight from DTW, when MSP also has a 1x flight to SAV that overlies DTW? There are several examples of this.

It just seems for many domestic routes, when possible DL opts to route domestic connections over ATL/MSP as opposed to DTW, and because the connections are being made elsewhere, that connecting pax reduction inhibits the opportunity for a borderline nonstop to be offered by DL from DTW.

Very well said but I think the overall plan for Delta in Detroit is to cater to and make it more of an O/D market than a true hub. As far as CDG fares you talked about that's because Delta was the only game in town so they charged what the market will bare. Detroit is very different in the sense that it is a much bigger market that the cities you stated thus attracting more diverse service should not be this difficult. At least one TATL LCC is without question doable. Now that the MAX 8 is flying again there should be nothing standing in the way of FI adding Detroit that is if the airport is willing to put it's best foot forward and make it happen filling that gap in the Detroit market. I believe the Aer Lingus window of opportunity is now closed being they are moving part of the A321 fleet from DUB to MAN. No none of that is Delta's fault you are correct but I do think they should have a little more loyalty to a market that is willing to for the most part shell out big many to pay their higher than average fares. This is why I believe most of the blame is actually on the airport for it's inability to market the airport effectively to prospective suiters and to say the market is mature and well served is not a fair assessment of what this market is capable of sustaining. If there is leakage there is room for improvement without question even if that leakage is to FNT.

NCAD95 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Peer markets include midwest cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, etc

Come on. Show better command of fact. Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh don't have dominant hub carriers. DL's dominance at DTW inhibits service by other carriers that don't have hub volume or frequency. The other side is that DL's hub yields far more flight frequency and non-stop destinations than Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, or Pittsburgh can even imagine. DTW isn't a big enough O&D market to support four or five carriers to (any but a few of the most) major destinations. DTW domestic O&D numbers aren't in the same league as LAX, ORD, DEN (or even SEA). Think DCA.

Any carrier wanting to add DTW service could sub-lease a gate or get something from the airport authority with ease.

I disagree with that,. In my opinion the airport it self is not that friendly when it comes to bringing in new talent. Proof of that is the airports track record at gaining new service when other airports of it's market size have no issue attracting new service. Just think in terms of when the last time was that a carrier came into Detroit and opened up a new unserved market. The last time I can think of was WOW Air adding KEF. So too say that Detroit is a very friendly when it comes to getting money to start new service is a streach. Every one is going to other markets that are truly friendly to adding and enhancing their choices for customers. We have heard now serval comments confirming leakage due to the higher than average price for air travel out of DTW one would think there is enough there to add a 54 or 5 weekly TATL flight by an LCC to cater to that leakage.

No one is saying a TATL LCC would not be successful.
Wow was successful at capturing demand but they were not successful at running a financially viable and their overzealous expansion plans eventually got them in trouble and you can see the results.
Its a new world order right now and essentially TATL travel is dead for the forseeable future at least through most of 2021 and there is no clear indication as to when/how borders and travel will resume.
On the flip side of that its unclear exactly what shape or size these airlines will be on the other side of this.

Frankly, I haven't followed every airlines financial conditions, restructuring efforts, shutdowns, fleet reductions, etc. I have been closing flowing DL though. As I posted in a few other places, DL was at about 150-155 widebodies at the end of 2019 with plans to grown the fleet upwards toward 170-180 frames by 2023 (dependent on 763 retirement schedule). Now with their retirements and revised delivery schedule, they are only going to have a fleet of about 120 widebodies through 2023 timeframe, of which 30 still remain in storage. DL is going to have 30 less widebodies than in did in 2019, about 20% less than it had before COVID. Other airlines are all doing the same.

Its hard to go and harp on here about how there needs to be TATL LCCs, when there is basically no TATL market currently. No one is going to announce anything until we get to the other side of this. Maybe there will be some life in TATL in Summer 2022 but its going to be a long crawl back to where the industry was pre-COVID.

DL was going to route Caribbean traffic through ATL for obvious reasons. Its a huge connecting hub and collects traffic flows from all over the Midwest and Northeast and flows south.
From an aircraft and crew utilization standpoint, ATL-Caribbean turns use less block time, allow same day turns to be flown by the same crews, and enable more segments per aircraft per day.
DTW-CUN, an aircraft departs at 8:30am, its not back at DTW until 6pm.
ATL-CUN an aircraft departs at 8:30am, its back in ATL at 2:30pm.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

NCAD95 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Come on. Show better command of fact. Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh don't have dominant hub carriers. DL's dominance at DTW inhibits service by other carriers that don't have hub volume or frequency. The other side is that DL's hub yields far more flight frequency and non-stop destinations than Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, or Pittsburgh can even imagine. DTW isn't a big enough O&D market to support four or five carriers to (any but a few of the most) major destinations. DTW domestic O&D numbers aren't in the same league as LAX, ORD, DEN (or even SEA). Think DCA.

Any carrier wanting to add DTW service could sub-lease a gate or get something from the airport authority with ease.

I disagree with that,. In my opinion the airport it self is not that friendly when it comes to bringing in new talent. Proof of that is the airports track record at gaining new service when other airports of it's market size have no issue attracting new service. Just think in terms of when the last time was that a carrier came into Detroit and opened up a new unserved market. The last time I can think of was WOW Air adding KEF. So too say that Detroit is a very friendly when it comes to getting money to start new service is a streach. Every one is going to other markets that are truly friendly to adding and enhancing their choices for customers. We have heard now serval comments confirming leakage due to the higher than average price for air travel out of DTW one would think there is enough there to add a 54 or 5 weekly TATL flight by an LCC to cater to that leakage.

No one is saying a TATL LCC would not be successful.
Wow was successful at capturing demand but they were not successful at running a financially viable and their overzealous expansion plans eventually got them in trouble and you can see the results.
Its a new world order right now and essentially TATL travel is dead for the forseeable future at least through most of 2021 and there is no clear indication as to when/how borders and travel will resume.
On the flip side of that its unclear exactly what shape or size these airlines will be on the other side of this.

Frankly, I haven't followed every airlines financial conditions, restructuring efforts, shutdowns, fleet reductions, etc. I have been closing flowing DL though. As I posted in a few other places, DL was at about 150-155 widebodies at the end of 2019 with plans to grown the fleet upwards toward 170-180 frames by 2023 (dependent on 763 retirement schedule). Now with their retirements and revised delivery schedule, they are only going to have a fleet of about 120 widebodies through 2023 timeframe, of which 30 still remain in storage. DL is going to have 30 less widebodies than in did in 2019, about 20% less than it had before COVID. Other airlines are all doing the same.

Its hard to go and harp on here about how there needs to be TATL LCCs, when there is basically no TATL market currently. No one is going to announce anything until we get to the other side of this. Maybe there will be some life in TATL in Summer 2022 but its going to be a long crawl back to where the industry was pre-COVID.

But this is exactly the time where the WCAA/DTW need to cultivate the opportunities so when the market opens up again Detroit get's in on the ground floor rather than the first go around where it was just thrown a bone by an already half dead airline. But the cold in that silver lining is that WOW proved there was an untapped market for that kind of service at DTW.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

DL was going to route Caribbean traffic through ATL for obvious reasons. Its a huge connecting hub and collects traffic flows from all over the Midwest and Northeast and flows south.
From an aircraft and crew utilization standpoint, ATL-Caribbean turns use less block time, allow same day turns to be flown by the same crews, and enable more segments per aircraft per day.
DTW-CUN, an aircraft departs at 8:30am, its not back at DTW until 6pm.
ATL-CUN an aircraft departs at 8:30am, its back in ATL at 2:30pm.

I agree and understand this full well. I tend to gauge what is doable by what Northwest did when they were the dominant carrier at DTW. From a different standpoint I think Delta has more Caribbean and Mexico service out of Detroit than Northwest ever did. I don't necessarily agree with you block time analysis otherwise Delta would have flown FNT and CAK to Detroit rather than Atlanta. I think it's more the fact that if it's selling low yielding fares or award tickets they want that traffic routed through ATL.

Hey for all we know, in the new world order, the backdoor leakage to YYZ may not exist depending on how Canada decides to reopen its borders to the world. Especially if we have to have vaccine passports, quarantines, pre-travel COVID tests and other health theater tactics to travel internationally.

Not to mention whats happening with global currencies / inflation and exchange rates.

Not to mention what carriers may still be around and what service they offer out of YYZ in the future.