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gsg013
Posts: 642
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:03 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:19 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
Excluding flights from SLC to other spots in the western US, can someone please give me a rough rundown of all the other A220 routes for the next few months? Ideally, I'd like to get a flight on the A223. The only other routes I'm aware of are SLC-ORD and DTW-DFW.



DL is flying the A220-100 on DL951 SLC-BNA and DL907 BNA-SLC daily.
DL is flying the A220-100 on DL1167 LGA-DTW and DL1171 DTW-LGA
DL is flying the A220-100 a couple times a day LGA-DFW
A220-100 DFW-MSP
A220-100 DFW-DTW
A220-100 SEA-BNA (DL 792)
A220-100 IAH-SLC (DL685)
A220-100 AUS-DTW (DL2048)

A220-300 SLC-DEN (DL1577)
A220-300 SLC-IAH (DL718)
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9003
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:51 am

A223s are only flying out and backs from SLC to markets like DEN, IAH, DFW, BOI, SMF, etc.
 
panamair
Posts: 4475
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:18 am

maps4ltd wrote:
According to Delta's destinations page (https://www.delta.com/us/en/plan-your-n ... ere-we-fly), these are the markets they plan to resume flights to in March:

Bangor, ME (BGR)
White Plains, NY (HPN)
Providence, RI (PVD)
Dublin, Ireland (DUB)
Madrid, Spain (MAD)


DUB and MAD have been postponed till April 1. The only TATL destinations still resuming in March are MXP and FCO.

JFK-FRA/ZRH/BRU/BCN/LIS/ATH were scheduled to resume April 1 but have now been pushed to May 1.
 
alohashirts
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:45 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:08 am

Does anyone know if or when DL’s SLC-CDG/AMS flights will be returning?
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 am

alohashirts wrote:
Does anyone know if or when DL’s SLC-CDG/AMS flights will be returning?


SLC-AMS returns March 4
SLC-CDG returns May 1

Both could change.
 
BDL757
Posts: 237
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:49 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:17 am

alohashirts wrote:
Does anyone know if or when DL’s SLC-CDG/AMS flights will be returning?


SLC-AMS is returning in March. It’s in the flight attendant monthly bid package.
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:36 pm

BDL757 wrote:
alohashirts wrote:
Does anyone know if or when DL’s SLC-CDG/AMS flights will be returning?


SLC-AMS is returning in March. It’s in the flight attendant monthly bid package.


AMS does not surprise me. SLC has grown back quickest since last March. CDG for DL is like MUC for UA. Important but not a top priority to bring back immediately. That's probably why SLC-CDG will return at a later date than AMS.
 
Prost
Posts: 2696
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:47 pm

There have been a lot of route announcements from other carriers, DL seems more restrained. Is there a reason for this, or is my perception off?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10200
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:10 pm

Are you made anxious by the 12 new BOS/NYC routes announced by AA, only three of which are year-round? Don't be.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:17 pm

Prost wrote:
There have been a lot of route announcements from other carriers, DL seems more restrained. Is there a reason for this, or is my perception off?


That's correct. If I'm not mistaken, Delta hasn't "formally" announced a single new route since the pandemic began. They definitely have added new routes (LAX-IAH/FAT, SEA-ONT, MSP expansion, and more) but it really isn't anything compared to JetBlue's 80+(?) new routes, AA's JFK-ATH/TLV/SCL, MIA-TLV, SEA-PVG routes, or UA's SFO-BLR, OGG-EWR, ORD-DEL/KOA, IAD-ACC/LOS routes.

For long-haul, Delta seems to be aiming at restoring past routes rather than restructuring and adding new ones. For domestic, they're following the trend of adding more leisure-oriented routes.
 
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b777900
Posts: 464
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:27 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:32 pm

x1234 wrote:
So in Asia DL is the only US3 with wide-body service to MNL (there is UA service to GUM). I still think DL has a chance to make SEA-MNL work. Hell I think DL can make SEA-SIN work too. UA has said that in their Pacific network SIN consistently has the highest yield and pre-COVID was sold out on most days in J and Y. SIN is also the most westernized asian country.



United flies 737 to MNL from GUM and HNL.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5426
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:56 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Prost wrote:
There have been a lot of route announcements from other carriers, DL seems more restrained. Is there a reason for this, or is my perception off?


That's correct. If I'm not mistaken, Delta hasn't "formally" announced a single new route since the pandemic began. They definitely have added new routes (LAX-IAH/FAT, SEA-ONT, MSP expansion, and more) but it really isn't anything compared to JetBlue's 80+(?) new routes, AA's JFK-ATH/TLV/SCL, MIA-TLV, SEA-PVG routes, or UA's SFO-BLR, OGG-EWR, ORD-DEL/KOA, IAD-ACC/LOS routes.

For long-haul, Delta seems to be aiming at restoring past routes rather than restructuring and adding new ones. For domestic, they're following the trend of adding more leisure-oriented routes.


Seems like they've got plenty to re-add (from the Ohio perspective alone, CMH-SEA was announced but never started in addition to the suspended CMH-LAX, DAY-MSP, all service at CAK) before they start adding new service.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6720
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:15 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Prost wrote:
There have been a lot of route announcements from other carriers, DL seems more restrained. Is there a reason for this, or is my perception off?


That's correct. If I'm not mistaken, Delta hasn't "formally" announced a single new route since the pandemic began. They definitely have added new routes (LAX-IAH/FAT, SEA-ONT, MSP expansion, and more) but it really isn't anything compared to JetBlue's 80+(?) new routes, AA's JFK-ATH/TLV/SCL, MIA-TLV, SEA-PVG routes, or UA's SFO-BLR, OGG-EWR, ORD-DEL/KOA, IAD-ACC/LOS routes.

For long-haul, Delta seems to be aiming at restoring past routes rather than restructuring and adding new ones. For domestic, they're following the trend of adding more leisure-oriented routes.


The fact that DL hasn't had to add many routes indicates that they had a very well rounded network pre-COVID and simply doesn't need a lot of changes. The only strategic move they've made is bolstering their LAX hub to try to "win" there. I would say they are making a mistake in NYC by hoping that LGA will return to what it was pre-COVID, but that remains to be seen.

AA added all these partnerships and routes because it was having real issues in the coasts. B6 added all those routes because its network is fundamentally flawed and exposed in the event of a sudden dip in demand.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9003
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:20 am

I feel like DL is pretty much staying the course....retrenching and maintaining their "core hubs" - ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC and maintaining the core of the network. Additionally, maintaining their investment and ready to rebuild their coastal gateways as demand returns - NYC, SEA, LAX. Also keeping a footprint in key focus cities ready to resume as conditions and demand recovers - RDU, AUS, CVG, BOS.
 
flyboy80
Posts: 2150
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2001 8:10 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 1:39 pm

With the transformational impact covid has had, I find it hard to think the network will grow back the way it was, only smaller, as some I've spoken to say. It seems likely a more transformative process might lie in years ahead and develop more throughout the recovery. Until now, we've only seen things removed (routes, planes)from the network and schedules updated each month, it still feels a bit short-term and status quo. I think once the recovery officially picks up some steam, perhaps in mid to late summer, it will be more apparent what the future network of hubs and focus cities will look like. It does seem the network of core hubs is very strong plus the four main gateway-hubs LAX, NYC, SEA, BOS. I expect all of those must return to at least around 90% of their former selves, it's hard to imagine the Delta network without those attributes, but then I also remember the delivery plan for the fleet plus slated retirements will make it very hard to get to 90% in the next few years. I really wonder, does something have to give in their core network i.e. A core hub unrecognizably smaller than 90% capacity pre-covid, or a delete BOS keep JFK/LGA... all hypotheticals. I do think Delta will have the winning strategy overall.
 
kavok
Posts: 996
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:00 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
With the transformational impact covid has had, I find it hard to think the network will grow back the way it was, only smaller, as some I've spoken to say. It seems likely a more transformative process might lie in years ahead and develop more throughout the recovery. Until now, we've only seen things removed (routes, planes)from the network and schedules updated each month, it still feels a bit short-term and status quo. I think once the recovery officially picks up some steam, perhaps in mid to late summer, it will be more apparent what the future network of hubs and focus cities will look like. It does seem the network of core hubs is very strong plus the four main gateway-hubs LAX, NYC, SEA, BOS. I expect all of those must return to at least around 90% of their former selves, it's hard to imagine the Delta network without those attributes, but then I also remember the delivery plan for the fleet plus slated retirements will make it very hard to get to 90% in the next few years. I really wonder, does something have to give in their core network i.e. A core hub unrecognizably smaller than 90% capacity pre-covid, or a delete BOS keep JFK/LGA... all hypotheticals. I do think Delta will have the winning strategy overall.


At some point in the future, because of vaccines or other measures, most people will feel safe traveling by air again (else the whole airline industry is in trouble). When that happens, how does a “feel safe traveling, but a work-from-home” (or work-from-anywhere) situation change the networks?

And if anything, the smaller out stations may see increased business travel demand as business travelers are no longer “forced to work” from SFO, BOS, NYC, etc. but instead can live in Florida for the winter and Michigan in the summer, or say live closer to family in Iowa where they grew up. And if some amount of that business travel does than shift to the smaller to midsize outstations, long term Delta’s interior hubs (as well as the interior hubs of UA, AA, WN) may be more critical long term than even pre-pandemic.
 
gsg013
Posts: 642
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:03 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:10 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like DL is pretty much staying the course....retrenching and maintaining their "core hubs" - ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC and maintaining the core of the network. Additionally, maintaining their investment and ready to rebuild their coastal gateways as demand returns - NYC, SEA, LAX. Also keeping a footprint in key focus cities ready to resume as conditions and demand recovers - RDU, AUS, CVG, BOS.



You mention the key focus cities of RUD, AUS, CVG, BOS. Where does BNA fit into this as DL had announced Nashville as a focus city about 2 year ago. Do you think BNA will see any additional point-to-point flying?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9003
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:14 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
With the transformational impact covid has had, I find it hard to think the network will grow back the way it was, only smaller, as some I've spoken to say. It seems likely a more transformative process might lie in years ahead and develop more throughout the recovery. Until now, we've only seen things removed (routes, planes)from the network and schedules updated each month, it still feels a bit short-term and status quo. I think once the recovery officially picks up some steam, perhaps in mid to late summer, it will be more apparent what the future network of hubs and focus cities will look like. It does seem the network of core hubs is very strong plus the four main gateway-hubs LAX, NYC, SEA, BOS. I expect all of those must return to at least around 90% of their former selves, it's hard to imagine the Delta network without those attributes, but then I also remember the delivery plan for the fleet plus slated retirements will make it very hard to get to 90% in the next few years. I really wonder, does something have to give in their core network i.e. A core hub unrecognizably smaller than 90% capacity pre-covid, or a delete BOS keep JFK/LGA... all hypotheticals. I do think Delta will have the winning strategy overall.

I posted this in the DL Fleet thread but it is relevant when discussing the future network:

Comparing some YOY data, from 10-K, I've prepared some analysis on Pre-COVID vs Post-COVID fleet plans:
Note "italics" indicate an estimated number, based on retirements. I made estimates on the MD90 (pre-COVID, B712, B763 retirement schedule in future years.
This is based on baseline from the 2019 Year-End 10K, and revised based on fleet size and revised delivery schedule in the 2020 Year-end 10K
Some of my capacity/seat counts may be slightly off, going off memory and/or there was variation by sub-types, but was trying to create general groupings of aircraft types.


Small Narrowbody:

PRE-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
A221 109 4 28 45 45 45
A223 130 0 0 6 18 36
B712 110 91 91 91 91 91
B73G 130 10 10 10 10 10
A319 132 57 57 57 57 57
SMALL NB 162 186 209 221 239

POST-COVID:
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
A221 109 4 28 38 41 45
A223 130 0 0 5 10 17
B712 110 91 91 50 42 31
B73G 130 10 10 0 0 0
A319 132 57 57 57 57 57
SMALL NB 162 186 150 150 150

The number of small narrowbodies, (110-130 seat) is going to decrease and be about 80-90 frames less than pre-COVID through 2022.
Primarily from accelerated retirement of 717s, the retirement of the 73G fleet, and pushing out A220 deliveries.
The buffer is going to be how many degrees of freedom there is to either accelerate or extend the B717 retirement, currently planned by December 2025.
Considering they are an orphan fleet type, I'm sure lessors would be more than willing to extend leases if necessary in the out years if additional capacity is needed in this fleet size.

Medium Narrowbody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
MD88 149 84 47 0 0 0
A320 157 62 62 62 62 62
B738 160 77 77 77 77 77
MD90 160 43 30 30 30 0
MED NB 266 216 169 169 139

Post-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
MD88 149 84 47 0 0 0
A320 157 62 62 52 52 52
B738 160 77 77 77 77 77
MD90 160 43 30 0 0 0
MED NB 266 216 129 129 129

For medium-sized narrowbodies, in the 150-160 seat range, the MD88s were already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2020, and the MD90s were gone by the end of 2022 if not sooner. No deliveries in this capacity segment for the forseeable future. Since the A320s, other than the 10 that were retired in 2020 that were due up for heavy maintenance, the rest will likely stay for the next few years, at least through 2022.

Large Narrowbody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
B739 180 112 130 130 130 130
A321 189 65 96 127 127 127
A21N 190 0 0 1 42 82
B752 192 100 100 100 100 100
B753 224 16 16 16 16 16
LARGE NB 293 342 374 415 455

Post-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
B739 180 112 130 130 130 130
A321 189 65 96 105 127 127
A21N 190 0 0 0 0 18
B752 192 100 100 100 100 100
B753 224 16 16 16 16 16
LARGE NB 293 342 351 373 391

Large narrowbodies didn't see any early retirements but have had deliveries delayed with the A321CEO & NEO. Going to be about 50-60 frames less than anticipated preCovid growth at the end of 2020 that pre-pandemic plans.

Widebody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
B763 226 58 56 56 56 56
B764 246 21 21 21 21 21
A332 234 11 11 11 11 11
A339 281 0 4 11 22 30
A333 293 31 31 31 31 31
A359 306 11 13 17 19 19
B77E/L 290 18 18 18 18 18
WB FLEET 150 154 165 178 186

Post-COVID:
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
B763 226 58 56 34 31 23
B764 246 21 21 21 21 21
A332 234 11 11 11 11 11
A339 281 0 4 8 11 19
A333 293 31 31 31 31 31
A359 306 11 13 15 15 17
B77E/L 290 18 18 0 0 0
WB FLEET 150 154 120 120 122

Pre-Covid, DL was at 150-154 widebodies with plans to grow the fleet to approaching 180 frames by end of 2022.
Now the fleet is currently at 120 frames and going to be relatively flat in size through 2022 as A339 & A359 deliveries will be offset by B763 retirements.
B763 retirements will act as the buffer with full retirement of the remaining 34 frames planned by December 2025.

TOTAL:

Pre-COVID
YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
TOTAL 871 898 917 983 1019

Post-COVID
YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
TOTAL 871 898 750 772 792

The pre-COVID fleet size was a bit optimistic, as it likely didn't include any potential retirements to offset the large number of deliveries if all the A220, A321CEO, NEOs has been delivered to the pre-pandemic plan. If demand kept growing at the rate it was in a hot economy it was possible.
Now at YE2020, DL is down to 750 mainline aircraft and planning to slowing grow/rebuild from there. Instead of being near/above 1000 aircraft by YE2020, DL will now likely be around 800. 20% less than pre-pandemic.
---

At the end of 2022, they are still going to be about 100 mainline aircraft smaller than they were at the end of 2019.
Now, some of the newer, replacement aircraft have a lot more versatility
- MD88/90 utilization was relatively low, with a lot of spares to ensure reliability on an aging fleet type
- Newer delivery A220s can be flown all over the domestic US, doing a lot more mid-con & TX stuff that frees up E75 & CR9s to do shorter markets / more segments per day
- A339s are more versatile than B763 (and even A333) can fly TPAC and TATL
- A359s are more versatile too and can be routed ICN-DTW-AMS-DTW-HND for example to limit ~23 hour RON/RADs

Taking all of that into account its really short about 70-80 frames with increased utilization. That really only become a factor during peak summer flying.
We are talking about Summer 2023 at this point, but there are probably some levers than can be pulled depending on how demand recovers.

I think that some of the core hubs will be maybe operate with 1 less departure bank than pre-COVID, but with larger aircraft.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9003
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:18 pm

gsg013 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like DL is pretty much staying the course....retrenching and maintaining their "core hubs" - ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC and maintaining the core of the network. Additionally, maintaining their investment and ready to rebuild their coastal gateways as demand returns - NYC, SEA, LAX. Also keeping a footprint in key focus cities ready to resume as conditions and demand recovers - RDU, AUS, CVG, BOS.



You mention the key focus cities of RUD, AUS, CVG, BOS. Where does BNA fit into this as DL had announced Nashville as a focus city about 2 year ago. Do you think BNA will see any additional point-to-point flying?

BNA isn't officially called a focus city, but it is almost there since it receives so many flights/capacity from DL's hubs. ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, SEA, LAX, LGA, JFK, BOS. Its an important market from its other hubs/gateways and its economically booming.

Not sure if they would ever actually call it a focus city. However, its fully possible, and I expect, that Skyteam will eventually put a flight into BNA from AMS or CDG by 2025.

BNA is a lot like AUS, but its also a heck of a lot closer to serve on high frequency from nearby core hubs and gateways.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12421
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:30 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
gsg013 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like DL is pretty much staying the course....retrenching and maintaining their "core hubs" - ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC and maintaining the core of the network. Additionally, maintaining their investment and ready to rebuild their coastal gateways as demand returns - NYC, SEA, LAX. Also keeping a footprint in key focus cities ready to resume as conditions and demand recovers - RDU, AUS, CVG, BOS.



You mention the key focus cities of RUD, AUS, CVG, BOS. Where does BNA fit into this as DL had announced Nashville as a focus city about 2 year ago. Do you think BNA will see any additional point-to-point flying?

BNA isn't officially called a focus city, but it is almost there since it receives so many flights/capacity from DL's hubs. ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, SEA, LAX, LGA, JFK, BOS. Its an important market from its other hubs/gateways and its economically booming.

Not sure if they would ever actually call it a focus city. However, its fully possible, and I expect, that Skyteam will eventually put a flight into BNA from AMS or CDG by 2025.

BNA is a lot like AUS, but its also a heck of a lot closer to serve on high frequency from nearby core hubs and gateways.

Tbh, to be considered a “focus city” a city needs flights to non-hubs/focus cities.

With the size of the US3 and the number of hubs they have large cities of importance will naturally have a lot of flights to decent number of destinations (typically around 7-8 different destinations). That doesn’t mean they are a “focus city” though. It just means it is a popular destination and because of the number of hubs the airline has they are serving it from a lot of different airports. For example, from ATL AA serves CLT, ORD, DFW, LAX, MIA, LGA, PHX, PHL, and DCA. That doesn’t mean ATL is an AA focus city.

Something like RDU is a focus cities due to the flights it has to places like BWI, TPA, MCO, BDL, IND, PHL, etc. Places that are not DL hubs or focus cities.
 
kavok
Posts: 996
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:18 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
With the transformational impact covid has had, I find it hard to think the network will grow back the way it was, only smaller, as some I've spoken to say. It seems likely a more transformative process might lie in years ahead and develop more throughout the recovery. Until now, we've only seen things removed (routes, planes)from the network and schedules updated each month, it still feels a bit short-term and status quo. I think once the recovery officially picks up some steam, perhaps in mid to late summer, it will be more apparent what the future network of hubs and focus cities will look like. It does seem the network of core hubs is very strong plus the four main gateway-hubs LAX, NYC, SEA, BOS. I expect all of those must return to at least around 90% of their former selves, it's hard to imagine the Delta network without those attributes, but then I also remember the delivery plan for the fleet plus slated retirements will make it very hard to get to 90% in the next few years. I really wonder, does something have to give in their core network i.e. A core hub unrecognizably smaller than 90% capacity pre-covid, or a delete BOS keep JFK/LGA... all hypotheticals. I do think Delta will have the winning strategy overall.

I posted this in the DL Fleet thread but it is relevant when discussing the future network:

Comparing some YOY data, from 10-K, I've prepared some analysis on Pre-COVID vs Post-COVID fleet plans:
Note "italics" indicate an estimated number, based on retirements. I made estimates on the MD90 (pre-COVID, B712, B763 retirement schedule in future years.
This is based on baseline from the 2019 Year-End 10K, and revised based on fleet size and revised delivery schedule in the 2020 Year-end 10K
Some of my capacity/seat counts may be slightly off, going off memory and/or there was variation by sub-types, but was trying to create general groupings of aircraft types.


Small Narrowbody:

PRE-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
A221 109 4 28 45 45 45
A223 130 0 0 6 18 36
B712 110 91 91 91 91 91
B73G 130 10 10 10 10 10
A319 132 57 57 57 57 57
SMALL NB 162 186 209 221 239

POST-COVID:
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
A221 109 4 28 38 41 45
A223 130 0 0 5 10 17
B712 110 91 91 50 42 31
B73G 130 10 10 0 0 0
A319 132 57 57 57 57 57
SMALL NB 162 186 150 150 150

The number of small narrowbodies, (110-130 seat) is going to decrease and be about 80-90 frames less than pre-COVID through 2022.
Primarily from accelerated retirement of 717s, the retirement of the 73G fleet, and pushing out A220 deliveries.
The buffer is going to be how many degrees of freedom there is to either accelerate or extend the B717 retirement, currently planned by December 2025.
Considering they are an orphan fleet type, I'm sure lessors would be more than willing to extend leases if necessary in the out years if additional capacity is needed in this fleet size.

Medium Narrowbody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
MD88 149 84 47 0 0 0
A320 157 62 62 62 62 62
B738 160 77 77 77 77 77
MD90 160 43 30 30 30 0
MED NB 266 216 169 169 139

Post-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
MD88 149 84 47 0 0 0
A320 157 62 62 52 52 52
B738 160 77 77 77 77 77
MD90 160 43 30 0 0 0
MED NB 266 216 129 129 129

For medium-sized narrowbodies, in the 150-160 seat range, the MD88s were already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2020, and the MD90s were gone by the end of 2022 if not sooner. No deliveries in this capacity segment for the forseeable future. Since the A320s, other than the 10 that were retired in 2020 that were due up for heavy maintenance, the rest will likely stay for the next few years, at least through 2022.

Large Narrowbody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
B739 180 112 130 130 130 130
A321 189 65 96 127 127 127
A21N 190 0 0 1 42 82
B752 192 100 100 100 100 100
B753 224 16 16 16 16 16
LARGE NB 293 342 374 415 455

Post-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
B739 180 112 130 130 130 130
A321 189 65 96 105 127 127
A21N 190 0 0 0 0 18
B752 192 100 100 100 100 100
B753 224 16 16 16 16 16
LARGE NB 293 342 351 373 391

Large narrowbodies didn't see any early retirements but have had deliveries delayed with the A321CEO & NEO. Going to be about 50-60 frames less than anticipated preCovid growth at the end of 2020 that pre-pandemic plans.

Widebody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
B763 226 58 56 56 56 56
B764 246 21 21 21 21 21
A332 234 11 11 11 11 11
A339 281 0 4 11 22 30
A333 293 31 31 31 31 31
A359 306 11 13 17 19 19
B77E/L 290 18 18 18 18 18
WB FLEET 150 154 165 178 186

Post-COVID:
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
B763 226 58 56 34 31 23
B764 246 21 21 21 21 21
A332 234 11 11 11 11 11
A339 281 0 4 8 11 19
A333 293 31 31 31 31 31
A359 306 11 13 15 15 17
B77E/L 290 18 18 0 0 0
WB FLEET 150 154 120 120 122

Pre-Covid, DL was at 150-154 widebodies with plans to grow the fleet to approaching 180 frames by end of 2022.
Now the fleet is currently at 120 frames and going to be relatively flat in size through 2022 as A339 & A359 deliveries will be offset by B763 retirements.
B763 retirements will act as the buffer with full retirement of the remaining 34 frames planned by December 2025.

TOTAL:

Pre-COVID
YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
TOTAL 871 898 917 983 1019

Post-COVID
YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
TOTAL 871 898 750 772 792

The pre-COVID fleet size was a bit optimistic, as it likely didn't include any potential retirements to offset the large number of deliveries if all the A220, A321CEO, NEOs has been delivered to the pre-pandemic plan. If demand kept growing at the rate it was in a hot economy it was possible.
Now at YE2020, DL is down to 750 mainline aircraft and planning to slowing grow/rebuild from there. Instead of being near/above 1000 aircraft by YE2020, DL will now likely be around 800. 20% less than pre-pandemic.
---

At the end of 2022, they are still going to be about 100 mainline aircraft smaller than they were at the end of 2019.
Now, some of the newer, replacement aircraft have a lot more versatility
- MD88/90 utilization was relatively low, with a lot of spares to ensure reliability on an aging fleet type
- Newer delivery A220s can be flown all over the domestic US, doing a lot more mid-con & TX stuff that frees up E75 & CR9s to do shorter markets / more segments per day
- A339s are more versatile than B763 (and even A333) can fly TPAC and TATL
- A359s are more versatile too and can be routed ICN-DTW-AMS-DTW-HND for example to limit ~23 hour RON/RADs

Taking all of that into account its really short about 70-80 frames with increased utilization. That really only become a factor during peak summer flying.
We are talking about Summer 2023 at this point, but there are probably some levers than can be pulled depending on how demand recovers.

I think that some of the core hubs will be maybe operate with 1 less departure bank than pre-COVID, but with larger aircraft.



Good information. Is there similar information out there on the RJ fleet that flies for DL? Obviously with SkyWest and others owning many of the frames, it may be hard to aggregate out whose RJ flies for whom. But I would be very curious to see a similar yearly breakdown for CR2/ERJ/etc. in Delta paint.

Regardless, thank you for sharing this.
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2953
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:39 pm

With regard to the Delta Network does anyone know if Delta will reconsider service to FNT. It is known that Delta cut service at the height of the Covid situation which is fully understandable. At that time it was thought that service to ATL might return last October. That did not happen and that also is understandable as Covid continues to hang on. Now we are into 2021 and headed for spring and maybe some Covid vaccinations that might ease the overall. Thanks in advance for your replies.
 
User avatar
ERJ170
Posts: 5947
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:15 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:52 pm

gsg013 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like DL is pretty much staying the course....retrenching and maintaining their "core hubs" - ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC and maintaining the core of the network. Additionally, maintaining their investment and ready to rebuild their coastal gateways as demand returns - NYC, SEA, LAX. Also keeping a footprint in key focus cities ready to resume as conditions and demand recovers - RDU, AUS, CVG, BOS.



You mention the key focus cities of RUD, AUS, CVG, BOS. Where does BNA fit into this as DL had announced Nashville as a focus city about 2 year ago. Do you think BNA will see any additional point-to-point flying?


In the recent earnings, I thought it was modified with BOS joining the hubs and RDU and AUS being the focus cities.. BNA, CVG, and SJC were not included from what I recall.. but I may be wrong. I’m just saying
 
LAXffDUB
Posts: 78
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:05 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:42 pm

panamair wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
According to Delta's destinations page (https://www.delta.com/us/en/plan-your-n ... ere-we-fly), these are the markets they plan to resume flights to in March:

Bangor, ME (BGR)
White Plains, NY (HPN)
Providence, RI (PVD)
Dublin, Ireland (DUB)
Madrid, Spain (MAD)


DUB and MAD have been postponed till April 1. The only TATL destinations still resuming in March are MXP and FCO.

JFK-FRA/ZRH/BRU/BCN/LIS/ATH were scheduled to resume April 1 but have now been pushed to May 1.


I've noticed DL operating a single flight into HPN the past few days using a 757. It's not daily but seems to be doing a regular rotation with PHL and IAD. Anybody know why? They've never used anything that big for their regular services.
 
gsg013
Posts: 642
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:03 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:10 pm

LAXffDUB wrote:
panamair wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
According to Delta's destinations page (https://www.delta.com/us/en/plan-your-n ... ere-we-fly), these are the markets they plan to resume flights to in March:

Bangor, ME (BGR)
White Plains, NY (HPN)
Providence, RI (PVD)
Dublin, Ireland (DUB)
Madrid, Spain (MAD)


DUB and MAD have been postponed till April 1. The only TATL destinations still resuming in March are MXP and FCO.

JFK-FRA/ZRH/BRU/BCN/LIS/ATH were scheduled to resume April 1 but have now been pushed to May 1.


I've noticed DL operating a single flight into HPN the past few days using a 757. It's not daily but seems to be doing a regular rotation with PHL and IAD. Anybody know why? They've never used anything that big for their regular services.


I believe it maybe the New York Knicks... their training facility is in Tarrytown only 15 min from HPN im pretty sure the DL88XX flight numbers are NBA charters on the special VIP configured 757-200s.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KPHL/KHPN
 
deltairlines
Posts: 7245
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:47 pm

LAXffDUB wrote:
panamair wrote:
maps4ltd wrote:
According to Delta's destinations page (https://www.delta.com/us/en/plan-your-n ... ere-we-fly), these are the markets they plan to resume flights to in March:

Bangor, ME (BGR)
White Plains, NY (HPN)
Providence, RI (PVD)
Dublin, Ireland (DUB)
Madrid, Spain (MAD)


DUB and MAD have been postponed till April 1. The only TATL destinations still resuming in March are MXP and FCO.

JFK-FRA/ZRH/BRU/BCN/LIS/ATH were scheduled to resume April 1 but have now been pushed to May 1.


I've noticed DL operating a single flight into HPN the past few days using a 757. It's not daily but seems to be doing a regular rotation with PHL and IAD. Anybody know why? They've never used anything that big for their regular services.


It's the Rangers charter. They use the Delta VIP configuration 757s and have been playing at Philly, at Washington and back to at Philly this week. Knicks have been at home for the past week.

FWIW, the Rangers share the same practice facility as the Knicks in Tarrytown, so HPN is just a stone's throw away.
 
LAXffDUB
Posts: 78
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:05 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:09 pm

deltairlines wrote:
LAXffDUB wrote:
panamair wrote:

DUB and MAD have been postponed till April 1. The only TATL destinations still resuming in March are MXP and FCO.

JFK-FRA/ZRH/BRU/BCN/LIS/ATH were scheduled to resume April 1 but have now been pushed to May 1.


I've noticed DL operating a single flight into HPN the past few days using a 757. It's not daily but seems to be doing a regular rotation with PHL and IAD. Anybody know why? They've never used anything that big for their regular services.


It's the Rangers charter. They use the Delta VIP configuration 757s and have been playing at Philly, at Washington and back to at Philly this week. Knicks have been at home for the past week.

FWIW, the Rangers share the same practice facility as the Knicks in Tarrytown, so HPN is just a stone's throw away.


Thanks!
 
User avatar
fanoftristars
Posts: 1700
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2000 9:03 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:59 pm

When will we see the A221 or A223 back on the DFW-SLC route? Earlier in 2020 it changed to the A320, and now an occasional A321 which are not a bad planes, but certainly miss the newer, quieter A220. I originally heard it was a pilot training issue, but maybe also a capacity issue with blocked seats?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9003
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:43 pm

A320 and A321 on DFW-SLC is likely more capacity related than anything to do with pilot training constraints which has led to parking a subset of A221s.

This route frequently saw a mix of 319 and 320 pre COVID. It’s also peak ski season and spring break travel period for Texas and they love to ski and travel.

With middle seat blocking likely need larger equipment for the time being.

DFW-SLC feels more like an A223 A320 A321 route longer term
 
Cactusjuba
Posts: 287
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:06 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:19 pm

All pilots who have been involuntary placed in non-flying status will be recalled to active status by October. Preliminary outlook for levels of flying for Summer 2022 is ~85-90% of 2019, Summer 2023 ~100%. Unsure what metric “levels of flying” equates to, but a positive trajectory worth sharing.
 
AZORMP
Posts: 138
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:08 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:07 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
With regard to the Delta Network does anyone know if Delta will reconsider service to FNT. It is known that Delta cut service at the height of the Covid situation which is fully understandable. At that time it was thought that service to ATL might return last October. That did not happen and that also is understandable as Covid continues to hang on. Now we are into 2021 and headed for spring and maybe some Covid vaccinations that might ease the overall. Thanks in advance for your replies.



Last I heard (and this was several months ago) the station was to be permanently closed and traffic routed to MBS and DTW. But it’s also worth noting that this didn’t come from anyone at FNT and should be taken with a grain of salt unless someone “in the know” can give more detail.

FNT was always a bit of an odd fit for DL...flew to only one hub (ATL), had only three or four departures a day, and yet was somehow still mainline DL and not DGS or another handler. IMO it was only a matter of time before they lost their mainline status.
 
laca773
Posts: 2095
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 7:10 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:07 am

The A220 will be an optimal aircraft to start LAX-BDL
LAX-JAX
Perhaps they can restart LAX-CMH with the same aircraft?
Since LÁTAM & DL will have an expanding JV, how feasible is it for LAX-MIA to come back with a D1 757?
Regarding a new international VFR market, LAX-MLM with a A319 or A220 ?

When might ATL-BUR be reinstated? Now that the 73Gs have been retired, the A220-300 can be a great aircraft for this route.

Additionally, hoping to see JFK-SJC return.
 
flyboy80
Posts: 2150
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2001 8:10 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:14 pm

laca773 wrote:
The A220 will be an optimal aircraft to start LAX-BDL
LAX-JAX
Perhaps they can restart LAX-CMH with the same aircraft?
Since LÁTAM & DL will have an expanding JV, how feasible is it for LAX-MIA to come back with a D1 757?
Regarding a new international VFR market, LAX-MLM with a A319 or A220 ?

When might ATL-BUR be reinstated? Now that the 73Gs have been retired, the A220-300 can be a great aircraft for this route.

Additionally, hoping to see JFK-SJC return.


I do not think you'll see overflying hubs to the extent pre covid. ATL-BUR can operate on an A319 and I wouldn't be surprised to see that one back at least 1x daily. Devoting new airplanes to other long and thin routes would take a lot of utilization time, and I doubt the fares on routes like lax-cmh can justify it. They can easily serve CMH from lax via a connection in either DTW or MSP. They need the new smaller airplanes serving routes out of hubs where they need to replace capacity from the massive retirements and rebalance the shifting thats taken place with mainline and connection. 109 seat airplanes will work well to backfill some RJ capacity much the way the 717 did. Sadly, I don't think we are going to see very many additions for quite a long while, not with their high cost structure.
 
DLASFlyer
Posts: 402
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:06 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 4:26 pm

New Delta destination!

DRO (Durango, Colorado)

1x daily CRJ from SLC, begins May 12th, 2021.
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 457
Joined: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:24 pm

I wonder if FLG could be coming eventually

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
DLASFlyer
Posts: 402
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:06 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:43 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
I wonder if FLG could be coming eventually

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


SLC-FLG seems like a no brainer but I checked and it has not been loaded like DRO.
 
AABB777
Posts: 588
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:05 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:54 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
New Delta destination!

DRO (Durango, Colorado)

1x daily CRJ from SLC, begins May 12th, 2021.


Wonder if or when DL will restart SLC-SBA? WN is starting service from SBA and AA is adding twice weekly SBA-ORD, yet DL can’t make SBA-SLC work?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10200
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:56 pm

Ehh. FLG is an easy drive from PHX. The drives DRO-SLC or DRO-DEN are not at all comparable. PHX is the logical, proximate hub for FLG and AA gives pretty good connectivity. That, and DL is looking at fewer RJ routes, not more.
 
User avatar
DalDC9Bos
Posts: 49
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 4:54 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:57 pm

Will DL ever return to Berlin, now BER,? I get it isn’t a business premium city, but they have flown to other comparable EU cities. UA has long flown the route.
 
AC4500
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:15 pm

Does DL fly SLC-MTJ? I don't see it in their long-term schedule but it could be seasonal.
 
DLASFlyer
Posts: 402
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:06 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:28 pm

AC4500 wrote:
Does DL fly SLC-MTJ? I don't see it in their long-term schedule but it could be seasonal.

MTJ had been served by DL only from ATL and only in winter immediately prior to the pandemic. Same with HDN and maybe EGE. The only Colorado mountain town served from SLC before the pandemic was ASE.

I wish DL would try SLC-EGE/MTJ/HDN/ASE next winter.
 
AC4500
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:33 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
Does DL fly SLC-MTJ? I don't see it in their long-term schedule but it could be seasonal.

MTJ had been served by DL only from ATL and only in winter before the pandemic. Same with HDN and EGE. The only Colorado mountain town served from SLC before the pandemic was ASE.

I wish DL would try SLC-EGE/MTJ/HDN/ASE next winter.

Wow, EGE, MTJ, HDN, and ASE all have no DL flights to SLC? That's really odd. Seems like a wasted opportunity for west coast > SLC > EGE/MTJ/HDN/ASE connections. They're pretty much giving UA all of that market share with connections via DEN. How strange.
 
cdgdtw
Posts: 166
Joined: Sun May 04, 2003 6:34 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:03 pm

DTW-CDG, on again/off again recovery: On for March; xld. On for April; xld. Latest is on 3x weekly 76W Sunday,Wednesday,Friday. Let's see...
 
kavok
Posts: 996
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:08 pm

cdgdtw wrote:
DTW-CDG, on again/off again recovery: On for March; xld. On for April; xld. Latest is on 3x weekly 76W Sunday,Wednesday,Friday. Let's see...


It is important to add (for context) that with DTW-CDG, that AF is currently flying the route. Obviously at some point DL will fly it again with their own metal as well. But with AF flying DTW-CDG currently, DL is effectively serving the route via the joint venture partner.
 
AC4500
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:17 pm

DLASFlyer wrote:
New Delta destination!

DRO (Durango, Colorado)

1x daily CRJ from SLC, begins May 12th, 2021.

It'll increase to 2x daily starting May 26th.
 
tjerome
Posts: 376
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:03 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:02 am

DalDC9Bos wrote:
Will DL ever return to Berlin, now BER,? I get it isn’t a business premium city, but they have flown to other comparable EU cities. UA has long flown the route.


I think we could see it in 2022
 
ahj2000
Posts: 1350
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2014 5:34 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 01, 2021 4:44 am

How has DL done in maintaining routes when they’re low on pax over the past month or so?
I’m on a flight with only about 10 for a 170 this week. The routes in a new timetable for the month of March, so OTC and completion stats aren’t available.
(This’ll be my first delta flight in a VERY long time. We shall see how they do )
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9003
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:39 am

The schedule is being flown. They aren't canceling flights close-in / prior to departure for low loads and really haven't done that since last April-May.
Operations, except for significant weather events or a random mechanical are almost always on-time since there is so much slack in utilization and longer turn times.
 
maps4ltd
Posts: 982
Joined: Tue May 08, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:54 am

ahj2000 wrote:
How has DL done in maintaining routes when they’re low on pax over the past month or so?
I’m on a flight with only about 10 for a 170 this week. The routes in a new timetable for the month of March, so OTC and completion stats aren’t available.
(This’ll be my first delta flight in a VERY long time. We shall see how they do )


Out of curiosity, whicb route?

I'm on a flight that looks like it has 40 booked out of 130 total seats onboard.
 
panamair
Posts: 4475
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:11 am

ahj2000 wrote:
How has DL done in maintaining routes when they’re low on pax over the past month or so?
I’m on a flight with only about 10 for a 170 this week. The routes in a new timetable for the month of March, so OTC and completion stats aren’t available.
(This’ll be my first delta flight in a VERY long time. We shall see how they do )


I would caution against using the seat map (if that’s what you are doing) to judge loads in advance..these days there is a disproportionate number of people on Basic Economy fares which don’t allow for advance seat assignment..I have been flying a JFK transcon route quite regularly and the number of occupied seats on the seat map invariably increases significantly from a few days in advance to within the check in window.
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