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BEG2IAH
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:44 am

zeke wrote:
The flight path angle would be the velocity vector relative to the ground plane, I suspect it was achieved with a combination of high bank angle of around 60 degrees and nose low attitude of around 50 degrees.


Thank you, zeke!
Flying at the cruising altitude is (mostly) boring. I wish all flights were nothing but endless take offs and landings every 10 minutes or so.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:54 am

BEG2IAH wrote:
zeke wrote:
I did some further analysis, the aircraft at the bottom had a flight path angle of 87 degrees.


zeke, thanks for this analysis. A quick and totally uneducated question: is the 87-degree angle nose up or nose down? It would make more sense that it was nose down considering the speed at which the aircraft fell out of the sky. I hope the PAX lost consciousness when it all started. May they RIP.

Thanks.


It's FPA, flight path angle. So the plane was descending along a nearly vertical flight path.

Attitude (where the nose points) is something else, and can be independent of FPA.

But it's hard to believe the plane reaches 35'000 ft/min descent rate without the nose pointing down...
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
CBRboy
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:22 am

zeke wrote:
I did some further analysis, the aircraft at the bottom had a flight path angle of 87 degrees.

From 2021-01-09 07:40:05Z.652 at 10900 ft to 2021-01-09 07:40:14Z.202 at 9525 ft the flight path angle change from zero to 84 degrees over 8.55 seconds. The speed didn't change much however the direction did, at a average rate of 9.85 degrees per second, that is about 3 times higher the normal rate we would rotate an aircraft on takeoff.

The data does suggest a very sharp change in direction from level to near vertical, without much of a change in speed.

Timestamp,time,delta_t,lat,long,delta_dist,alt_ft,alt_m,delta_alt_m,3D_dist,FPA
2021-01-09 07:40:02Z.716,1262.716,0.438,-5.98389,106.56585,3.525756338,10900,3322.32,0,3.525756338,0
2021-01-09 07:40:02Z.782,1262.782,0.066,-5.98438,106.56558,3.525756338,10900,3322.32,0,3.525756338,0
2021-01-09 07:40:02Z.824,1262.824,0.042,-5.98331,106.56615,7.644150238,10900,3322.32,0,7.644150238,0
2021-01-09 07:40:04Z.372,1264.372,1.548,-5.98196,106.56672,9.267714028,10900,3322.32,0,9.267714028,0
2021-01-09 07:40:04Z.528,1264.528,0.156,-5.98096,106.56705,6.675282535,10900,3322.32,0,6.675282535,0
2021-01-09 07:40:05Z.652,1265.652,1.124,-5.97954,106.56743,9.330970847,10900,3322.32,0,9.330970847,0
2021-01-09 07:40:08Z.084,1268.084,2.432,-5.97688,106.5678,17.08385359,10775,3284.22,38.1,41.75485664,65.84876927
2021-01-09 07:40:08Z.264,1268.264,0.18,-5.97605,106.56781,5.284715387,10725,3268.98,15.24,16.1302764,70.87518785
2021-01-09 07:40:09Z.754,1269.754,1.49,-5.97542,106.56785,4.018362983,10650,3246.12,22.86,23.21048989,80.03031927
2021-01-09 07:40:14Z.202,1274.202,4.448,-5.97009,106.56686,34.46120558,9525,2903.22,342.9,344.6273127,84.26108445
2021-01-09 07:40:14Z.262,1274.262,0.06,-5.96906,106.56654,6.838076531,9125,2781.3,121.92,122.1116116,86.78983861
2021-01-09 07:40:14Z.586,1274.586,0.324,-5.96869,106.56641,2.483706941,8950,2727.96,53.34,53.39779396,87.33402305
2021-01-09 07:40:16Z.726,1276.726,2.14,-5.9673,106.56601,9.174962117,8125,2476.5,251.46,251.6273267,87.91038927
2021-01-09 07:40:17Z.202,1277.202,0.476,-5.9666,106.56577,4.687337298,7650,2331.72,144.78,144.8558578,88.14566329
2021-01-09 07:40:20Z.992,1280.992,3.79,-5.96452,106.56599,13.30943179,5400,1645.92,685.8,685.929137,88.88819109
2021-01-09 07:40:24Z.390,1284.39,3.398,-5.96367,106.56857,16.50911322,2850,868.68,777.24,777.4153127,88.78318113
2021-01-09 07:40:27Z.752,1287.752,3.362,-5.96395,106.57453,36.07080515,250,76.2,792.48,793.3004811,87.39390338


Even more remarkable is the change in flight path angle at the initial data point that departed from level flight. It took from 07:40:05Z.652 only to 07:40:08Z.084 or 2.43 seconds to go from FPA=0 to FPA=>65.8. A change of 27 degrees a second! That must have involved some G forces.
 
F9Animal
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:38 am

I don't think we have gotten good info on weather at the time of the crash. I heard they took off into a thunderstorm, or there were storms in the area? If they were in a cloud, my first fear is spatial disorientation perhaps. We have seen this countless times, and would totally fit the high speed impact.

I really hope the CVR/DVR will shed some light into this. Anyone know if it was the first flight of the day for this plane? I feel so bad for Indonesia. Praying for everyone involved in this tragedy. Boeing is taking another hit from the journalists bringing up the Max issue. Sigh...
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
boyindra
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:49 am

for the crew, its first flight,for aircraft...its leg 5 that day
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:50 am

F9Animal wrote:
I don't think we have gotten good info on weather at the time of the crash. I heard they took off into a thunderstorm, or there were storms in the area? If they were in a cloud, my first fear is spatial disorientation perhaps. We have seen this countless times, and would totally fit the high speed impact.


http://avherald.com/h?article=4e18553c&opt=0 shows no extraordinary weather next to the accident site. The METAR doesn't look bad to me, too.

On AvHerald it says that somebody missed the flight because his (negative) Covid test result didn't yet arrive...
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
mandala499
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:00 am

zeke wrote:
ADSB data does include the the status of the autopilot, FCU setting, and FMC waypoint. FR24 just doesn't record it, the ATC recording of the ADSB data should have that on it.

If I remember correctly, the 737-500 in question does not have that FCU setting and A/P status data transmitted. I have my own ADS-B data system that displays all that and we've never had any of the SJY 737 classic send out anything more than basic position, altitude, squawk. Heck, even it sends it's FMC POS not GPS POS, and often we see it have position shifts during flight due to RadNav retune... and have it shown to be landing in the grass while it was landing on the runway in front of my eyes... :roll:

Finally the media frenzy have stopped, and I can start doing analysis... #workworkwork...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
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zeke
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:43 am

CBRboy wrote:
A change of 27 degrees a second! That must have involved some G forces.


Not necessarily, this is a multi dimensional problem (x,y,z,time), not 2 dimensional. Some acceleration will be involved, however unless I go back and do some state based predictions I would not be able to tell you if that acceleration was in pitch, roll, yaw. In reality it is likely to be a combination. Also I cannot be sure the time stamps on the data points all come from the same ground receiver.

mandala499 wrote:
I have my own ADS-B data system that displays all that and we've never had any of the SJY 737 classic send out anything more than basic position, altitude, squawk.


That will really depend on if your receiver is decoding all of the packet, some decoders just extract the data they are after and ignore the rest.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
mandala499
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:24 am

zeke wrote:
That will really depend on if your receiver is decoding all of the packet, some decoders just extract the data they are after and ignore the rest.

Yes, mine decodes those stuff... I can see a heck of a lot more on the ADSB on an A350 or B787 than on a 737Classic... whose squitters are usually only transmitting bare minimums here...

My ADSB system was used in the Lion 610 investigation especially in pinpointing the main wreckage point (I could not publish it back then as the NTSC slapped a non-disclosure on us)... on this one, we could barely get anything... (several of our antennas in the Jakarta region are down)...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
mandala499
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:13 am

One of the blackboxes (am hearing it's the FDR) is being taken onshore...

Good news... now... where the heck is that CVR...

Colleagues in the ATC raised the alarm to me on this accident just 20 minutes after it went down... I saw the ADSB data about 1 hour after it went down and immediately alerted one of the crash recovery divers immediately... Told him expect this to be like JT610 and not QZ8501... and expect it may be worse than JT610...

He has since messaged me several times, stating the wreck to be in a much worse state than JT610. "even the body parts are smaller." :(
Still saddened....
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
hitower3
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:57 am

Dear all,

Thank you very much for your educated and first-hand information. I hope the cause(s) of this terrible catastrophe will be found soon.
I just had a though for the investigators now listening to the CVR - how horrific it must feel to know that you will be listening to the last moments of two people fighting for their lives!

All the best to all!
Hendric
 
brodeurprice
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:21 pm

mandala499 wrote:
zeke wrote:
ADSB data does include the the status of the autopilot, FCU setting, and FMC waypoint. FR24 just doesn't record it, the ATC recording of the ADSB data should have that on it.

If I remember correctly, the 737-500 in question does not have that FCU setting and A/P status data transmitted. I have my own ADS-B data system that displays all that and we've never had any of the SJY 737 classic send out anything more than basic position, altitude, squawk. Heck, even it sends it's FMC POS not GPS POS, and often we see it have position shifts during flight due to RadNav retune... and have it shown to be landing in the grass while it was landing on the runway in front of my eyes... :roll:

Finally the media frenzy have stopped, and I can start doing analysis... #workworkwork...


Unrelated to your post but I must say what an immense privilege I consider it to be to have access to the great minds on this website, zeke and yourself included, during situations like this. You have my utmost respect and gratitude for your commitment to this community at a time where I’m sure you must be incredibly busy. Thank you!
 
btfarrwm
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:51 pm

The whole series of AA training videos that posted yesterday was fascinating. This has all the hallmarks of a failure to recover from a critically-abnormal flight condition. Whether it was a rudder hard-over, failed flap or slat retraction, asymmetric thrust, STAB trim or stuck stabilizer, etc.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:15 pm

Okay I am in no way a pilot or have any special knowledge, but looking at the profiles the one option that stands out to me and I do not even know if this is possible, is that they somehow banked the aircraft all the way till they were upside down and then pulled hard backwards to aim themselves straight at the ground and kept pulling but without enough space to complete the maneuver into level flight. A failed split S so to speak. This seems incredible that this is what happened, So I am fully prepared to be talked out of it.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:36 pm

Please do not use terms you know will trigger someone else. That is flamebait.
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
awthompson
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:29 pm

Picking up on an earlier post I made. I deferred, perhaps wrongly, from the ground track of the flight after takeoff and throughout the climb, that the aircraft was being flown manually, and that the autopilot did not appear to have been engaged. I was not available to continue conversation where posters questioned how I could ascertain from ADSB data whether autopilot was engaged or not.
Do the continuous curves with no straight legs not suggest that aircraft was most likely being flown manually?

Regarding whether the aircraft was IMC or not, we can see from the airport cam footage of the pushback (widely circulated online) that there was low cloud and rain at the airport at time of departure. Of course this could have been very localised and cleared again quickly, but isn't there is a significant likelihood that much of the climbout was flown in IMC?
 
wjcandee
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:24 pm

nm2582 wrote:
A few posts ago, someone referenced an Indonesian online newspaper site. On that site, the following article exists:

https://news.detik.com/berita/d-5327882 ... wijaya-air

The link contains an image of some debris, including an orange object which appears to my untrained eyes as potentially being a damaged FDR or CVR.

The caption of the image (translated to English) is: "Life vest jacket and objects allegedly bearing the registration number of the Sriwijaya Air SJ182 aircraft. "

Does this look like a CVR/FDR to anyone else?


Back in posts 174 and 176 and thereafter, we had a discussion reference the photo you mention that is shown in the article in your link. For convenience, here's a link to that specific photo again: https://awsimages.detik.net.id/communit ... jpeg?w=375.

Our conclusion was that it looked like the right color and level of damage, and right typeface for the lettering on the metal, but probably that wasn't an actual flight recorder because we would have heard about it.

Look, in this photo from today, at what's sitting on top of the clear box containing the now-recovered flight recorder: http://avherald.com/img/sriwijaya_b735_ ... 0109_5.jpg

Good eyes, my friend!! (Even if it does not turn out to be the exact piece in your photo, the point is that there were pieces of the flight recorder casing and/or chassis in and around the debris.)
Last edited by wjcandee on Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Flow2706
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:29 pm

awthompson wrote:
Picking up on an earlier post I made. I deferred, perhaps wrongly, from the ground track of the flight after takeoff and throughout the climb, that the aircraft was being flown manually, and that the autopilot did not appear to have been engaged. I was not available to continue conversation where posters questioned how I could ascertain from ADSB data whether autopilot was engaged or not.
Do the continuous curves with no straight legs not suggest that aircraft was most likely being flown manually?

Regarding whether the aircraft was IMC or not, we can see from the airport cam footage of the pushback (widely circulated online) that there was low cloud and rain at the airport at time of departure. Of course this could have been very localised and cleared again quickly, but isn't there is a significant likelihood that much of the climbout was flown in IMC?

Autopilots are designed to cope with the procedure requirements but also to ensure passenger comfort. Sometimes the AP does not perform perfectly but still adequately, so it's not uncommon that some tracks/radials are slightly overshot and subsequently corrected. Not sure about the 737 classic, but I have seen similar AP behavior on the A320. I guess the 737 classic is a bit worse actually, considering it's systems are older and less integrated.
EDIT: If a waypoint on the procedure is coded as "fly over" (instead of the usual "fly by") the flight management system/autopilot won't start the turn onto the next leg until passing the fix. This will also result in the "overshooting" as seen here, but in that case it is intentional due to the procedure design. It's been 8 years since I flew in Jakarta, so I'm not too sure if there is a fly over waypoint on that SID, but it is a possibility (it should also be mentioned on the chart).
 
mxaxai
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:26 pm

mandala499 wrote:
One of the blackboxes (am hearing it's the FDR) is being taken onshore...

Confirmed by the ministry of transportation:
http://dephub.go.id/post/read/kotak-hit ... -ditemukan
Translation by Google Translate:
Jakarta - The Joint Team succeeded in finding the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) Black Box from the Sriwijaya SJ182 Airplane on Tuesday afternoon (12/1) at around 14.00 WIB around the Seribu Islands Waters. The discovery of the Black Box was officially conveyed by the Minister of Transportation Budi Karya Sumadi together with TNI Commander Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto, Chief of Naval Staff (Kasal) Admiral TNI Yudo Margono, Head of Basarnas Bagus Puruhito, and Chairman of the NTSC Soerjanto Tjahjono at the JICT 2 Command Post, Tanjung Priok Port, Jakarta on Tuesday Afternoon (12/1) around 17.30 WIB.


The recovery effort so far appears to be well organized and fast.

Also regarding possible poor maintenance:
"The Directorate General of Civil Aviation has carried out routine supervision in accordance with the supervision program in the framework of extending the Sriwijaya Air aircraft operation certificate (AOC) in November 2020. As a result, Sriwijaya Air has met the stipulated conditions," explained Adita.


http://dephub.go.id/post/read/pesawat-s ... um-terbang

The aircraft was stored for much of 2020, but received an inspection by government staff prior to return to service and had work done to comply with an AD. So if there were any maintenance issues, they must've been either very recent or well hidden.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:31 pm

A question:
avherald wrote:
On Jan 12th 2021 the KNKT stated according to radar data the aircraft reached a maximum of 10900 feet MSL and appeared to be intacted until hitting the water being capable of transmitting data.

I assume that this was the result of primary radar data analysis. What's the smallest piece that's detectable? For example, would a slat or a turbine disk show up? Or perhaps an entire engine?
 
Paolo18
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:37 pm

Here is an image of the flight data recorder.
https://imageresizer.static9.net.au/ajy ... f71b16d623

Interestingly, the beacons/pinger are on top of the box and there are two of them. Usually is there not one per black box??
http://avherald.com/img/sriwijaya_b735_ ... 0109_5.jpg
Last edited by Paolo18 on Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Spetsnaz55
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:52 pm

Are they keeping it submerged? Doesn't look like it huh
 
Paolo18
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:55 pm

Looks like an older Honeywell unit and looks to be submerged.
https://www.bing.com/th?id=OVFT.m-48vQ7 ... 0&dpr=2.48
 
gdwnet
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:19 pm

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
Are they keeping it submerged? Doesn't look like it huh


It is. You can see it clearly in this BBC News article -> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55628294

On a slight tangent, how reliable is the ADS-B data that flightradar posted? If it's at all accurate then whatever happened was utterly crazy and yet the plane was somehow under power all the way to impact?
 
Boeingphan
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:37 pm

awthompson wrote:
Picking up on an earlier post I made. I deferred, perhaps wrongly, from the ground track of the flight after takeoff and throughout the climb, that the aircraft was being flown manually, and that the autopilot did not appear to have been engaged. I was not available to continue conversation where posters questioned how I could ascertain from ADSB data whether autopilot was engaged or not.
Do the continuous curves with no straight legs not suggest that aircraft was most likely being flown manually?

Regarding whether the aircraft was IMC or not, we can see from the airport cam footage of the pushback (widely circulated online) that there was low cloud and rain at the airport at time of departure. Of course this could have been very localised and cleared again quickly, but isn't there is a significant likelihood that much of the climbout was flown in IMC?



Well we do know that local fisherman in the area reported that it was raining really hard when the plane went down. I can't recall where I read this but the fishermen basically said it was pouring and bad out. I realize that area of the world it can be like this in monsoon season. So it very well may be plausible they were in IMC right through the impact.
 
slvrblt
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:00 pm

The whole series of AA training videos that posted yesterday was fascinating. This has all the hallmarks of a failure to recover from a critically-abnormal flight condition. Whether it was a rudder hard-over, failed flap or slat retraction, asymmetric thrust, STAB trim or stuck stabilizer, etc.


Indeed; I watched it also. Dated, in equipment types he referenced the 727 and MD11 pilots. Amazing presentation, though, very well done.
..everything works out in the end.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:42 pm

Boeingphan wrote:
Well we do know that local fisherman in the area reported that it was raining really hard when the plane went down. I can't recall where I read this but the fishermen basically said it was pouring and bad out. I realize that area of the world it can be like this in monsoon season. So it very well may be plausible they were in IMC right through the impact.

Though these downpours can be very localized. I've gone from one street block in Jakarta to another, entered the car in the heaviest rain imaginable and got out with no sign of rain in sight.
 
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zeke
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:07 pm

gdwnet wrote:
On a slight tangent, how reliable is the ADS-B data that flightradar posted? If it's at all accurate then whatever happened was utterly crazy and yet the plane was somehow under power all the way to impact?


ADSB data comes from the transponder and includes the GPS position and groundspeed as well as pressure altitude. The accuracy is as good as the aircraft’s GPS. The only issue with FR24 days is the data packets can be received by multiple servers before being uploaded to the cloud, so the same position may appear in the log from different receivers at different time stamps.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
Paolo18
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:47 am

Pingers were detached to both the FDR and CVR, hence, the delay to find the CVR.

CNN quote :
Commander of the Indonesian National Armed Forces Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto said that the black boxes' underwater acoustic beacons, which send out a series of pings to help searchers find them, had both been detached. He was optimistic, however, that the team would find the second black box soon.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:10 am

slvrblt wrote:
Indeed; I watched it also. Dated, in equipment types he referenced the 727 and MD11 pilots. Amazing presentation, though, very well done.


Yeah, it's from 1996-1997. What happened was that Warren Vanderburgh, who everyone called "Van", was asked by AA's chief pilot at the time to come up with a program to address accidents and incidents resulting from inflight upsets, which were a growing part of the mix (in part because other causes were falling). The chief pilot wanted procedures to use Fleetwide, so that instinctive emergency reactions wouldn't have to be retrained plane by plane as pilots moved throughout the fleet. Vanderbergh was a retired military pilot who stayed in the Air Force reserves because he liked to fly fighters on the weekend, and spent 27 years as a fighter pilot and 32 years flying at AA. He developed that program, and also developed a segment called "Children of the Magenta Line", to address what he saw as automation dependency that was causing a loss of stick-and-rudder skills, as well as a tendency to resort inappropriately to the automation in an emergency situation. Most are now available online, but they were taught rigorously at the AA Flight Academy for years.

The quality of Van's work is evident by the enduring nature of these videos. His humor and humanity come through loud and clear in them. Sadly, he passed away at age 74 about 4 years ago.

Here's "Children of the Magenta Line", for those who are interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ESJH1N ... e=youtu.be
And here's the video that is somewhat relevant to the crash at issue in this thread, which is what I think you were referring to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35Zy_rl8WuM
And some of the rest of them are linkable from here: https://community.infiniteflight.com/t/ ... rgh/463070
 
jabarei
Posts: 3
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:50 am

mxaxai wrote:
A question:
avherald wrote:
On Jan 12th 2021 the KNKT stated according to radar data the aircraft reached a maximum of 10900 feet MSL and appeared to be intacted until hitting the water being capable of transmitting data.

I assume that this was the result of primary radar data analysis. What's the smallest piece that's detectable? For example, would a slat or a turbine disk show up? Or perhaps an entire engine?


This statement is based on the data transmitted by the aircraft (last data being sent at about 250ft) as well as the analysis of the damage to the fan blades and turbine.
What is interesting and raising some questions about the airport security in CGK is that two of the passengers were using a fake ID's. In fact they used ID's that belong to their friends to make a swab test, book a tickets and board the plane.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/what-we-kn ... lane-crash
 
ErichHartmann
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:03 pm

jabarei wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
A question:
avherald wrote:
On Jan 12th 2021 the KNKT stated according to radar data the aircraft reached a maximum of 10900 feet MSL and appeared to be intacted until hitting the water being capable of transmitting data.

I assume that this was the result of primary radar data analysis. What's the smallest piece that's detectable? For example, would a slat or a turbine disk show up? Or perhaps an entire engine?


This statement is based on the data transmitted by the aircraft (last data being sent at about 250ft) as well as the analysis of the damage to the fan blades and turbine.
What is interesting and raising some questions about the airport security in CGK is that two of the passengers were using a fake ID's. In fact they used ID's that belong to their friends to make a swab test, book a tickets and board the plane.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/what-we-know-so-far-about-sriwijaya-air-plane-crash



Regarding the link you posted it returns " 404 page not found."
 
WIederling
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:25 pm

ErichHartmann wrote:
jabarei wrote:
Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/what-we-know-so-far-about-sriwijaya-air-plane-crash


Regarding the link you posted it returns " 404 page not found."


The link resolves and displays without issue.
Murphy is an optimist
 
washingtonflyer
Posts: 1728
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:44 pm

Not sure if this has been mentioned, by AvHerald has reported that the FDR has been recovered and is now on land:

"In the evening of Jan 12th 2021 the Ministry of Transport reported one of the black boxes was recovered by Navy divers and taken ashore. The black box was subsequently identified as the flight data recorder. The read out of the FDR is expected to take between 2 and 5 days."
 
flightless
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:14 pm

WIederling wrote:
ErichHartmann wrote:
jabarei wrote:
Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/what-we-know-so-far-about-sriwijaya-air-plane-crash


Regarding the link you posted it returns " 404 page not found."


The link resolves and displays without issue.


The link resolves properly for me if I display it on my computer's browser, but hitting the same link on my phone goes 404.
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:11 pm

flightless wrote:
The link resolves properly for me if I display it on my computer's browser, but hitting the same link on my phone goes 404.

works from my Samsung. Probably a phone os/type or provider based issue?
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
Aesma
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:01 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
Okay I am in no way a pilot or have any special knowledge, but looking at the profiles the one option that stands out to me and I do not even know if this is possible, is that they somehow banked the aircraft all the way till they were upside down and then pulled hard backwards to aim themselves straight at the ground and kept pulling but without enough space to complete the maneuver into level flight. A failed split S so to speak. This seems incredible that this is what happened, So I am fully prepared to be talked out of it.


When some of us talk about spatial disorientation, this is the kind of thing a pilot could do to "recover" if (s)he thinks the plane is already upside down.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Western727
Posts: 2004
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:38 pm

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:07 pm

Aesma wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
Okay I am in no way a pilot or have any special knowledge, but looking at the profiles the one option that stands out to me and I do not even know if this is possible, is that they somehow banked the aircraft all the way till they were upside down and then pulled hard backwards to aim themselves straight at the ground and kept pulling but without enough space to complete the maneuver into level flight. A failed split S so to speak. This seems incredible that this is what happened, So I am fully prepared to be talked out of it.


When some of us talk about spatial disorientation, this is the kind of thing a pilot could do to "recover" if (s)he thinks the plane is already upside down.


Private pilot here...during training they make us wear "hoods" to simulate instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) by making it impossible to see outside. Such hoods are basically oversized golf hats. The instructor will make the student put their head down towards their laps...then fairly aggressively pitch up/down and bank left/right at least a couple of cycles to "throw" us off. Then they will prompt us to quickly recover the aircraft by looking up only enough to be able to see the instruments (it can be a beautiful day out in reality). Without fail, I was surprised to discover what the aircraft's attitude actually was each time based on the instruments.

Example: instructor throws me off with "wild" maneuvers, then says "recover". I look at the instruments, guessing incorrectly that the aircraft was in a pitch-up and left-bank attitude, while in reality it was in a, say, pitch-down and right-bank attitude. I then had to "disconnect" with my earlier perception and respond correctly: for the pitch-down I had to quickly pull back the throttle, level the aircraft and then pull back on the yoke to cancel the down pitch attitude...in short order.

After a few times, I learned to stop guessing the attitude and "trust the instruments". Point being, spatial disorientation is real as hell...and deadly if not dealt with correctly. Couple that with the usual stressors inherent in an airline cockpit, possible avionics failure(s) and you have a potential recipe for disaster.
Jack @ AUS
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:42 pm

Western727 wrote:
Then they will prompt us to quickly recover the aircraft by looking up only enough to be able to see the instruments (it can be a beautiful day out in reality). Without fail, I was surprised to discover what the aircraft's attitude actually was each time based on the instruments.


I only dabble in FlightGear at home, shooting crazy approaches in crazy weather, but I absolutely know what you mean. In a certain way, a flightsimmer has a honest approach to flying... there's no sensory feedback you can trust. Use the instruments!

---

Let's quickly resume what we know:

- seemingly normal departure and climb
- no mayday call (as far as I know), crew must have been too busy to emit any message... aviate, navigate, communicate
- a descent from about 3000 meters with nearly 35'000 ft/min
- aircraft did not break up in flight
- wreckage indicates an impact at a very high speed
......impact angle can't be discerned yet, I haven't yet seen pictures of debris which show the direction of buckling
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1448
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:53 pm

Aesma wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
Okay I am in no way a pilot or have any special knowledge, but looking at the profiles the one option that stands out to me and I do not even know if this is possible, is that they somehow banked the aircraft all the way till they were upside down and then pulled hard backwards to aim themselves straight at the ground and kept pulling but without enough space to complete the maneuver into level flight. A failed split S so to speak. This seems incredible that this is what happened, So I am fully prepared to be talked out of it.


When some of us talk about spatial disorientation, this is the kind of thing a pilot could do to "recover" if (s)he thinks the plane is already upside down.


Aeroflot 821 is an example of a crash caused by spatial disorientation that concluded with a rapid descent, with several contributing factors, including alcohol and a throttle lever out of adjustment resulting in thrust asymmetry at several times in the flight that created a banking tendency. It's a chilling but revealing case to study to understand how loss of orientation can evolve.

https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov ... ort_en.pdf

There was a lot going on in the Aeroflot flight that I don't think is hinted at in the Sriwijaya ADS-B data, so don't compare them too closely. However, at one point, they were banked 30 degrees left when the copilot asked the PIC to take over, but the latter thought they were banked right and reacted accordingly. After the copilot's startled reaction, he seems to have lost any remaining sense of bank angle, rolled even harder left and entered a spiraling dive that continued past inverted and reached 65 degrees nose down. If I'm guessing the FDR graph (labelled in Cyrillic?) right, the terminal descent was around 30,000 FPM
 
Sachmet
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:45 pm

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:14 pm

http://avherald.com/h?article=4e18553c&opt=0
The aircraft had departed Soekarno Airport at 14:36L, climbing through 1700 feet the aircraft was cleared to climb to FL290. Departure control subsequently noticed that the aircraft was not on its assigned heading of 075 degrees, but tracking northwesterly and queried the crew about the heading at 14:40L, but received no reply, within second the aircraft disappeared from radar


14:40L was exactly the time the plane crashed - coincidence?

Maybe the received the transmission and everything that followed was a reaction to it? Wrong route selected in the AP. Switched to manual. Still in the mistaking perception of turning right towards 075. Correcting to the wrong side. Spacial Disorientation. Unable to recover in time.

Forgive my speculation. Also there is a more sinister version of why the ATC query of the wrong heading could have lead to the crash but out of respect for the pilots I don't like to spell it out before the VDR recording isn't published.
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1448
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:37 pm

If the crew was dealing with any sort of trouble, it makes sense why they might not reply, and even why they would not be on the assigned heading. Possibilities range from they were running a checklist on an apparently urgent alarm before turning to their assigned course or responding to ATC, to that they were incapacitated.

Don't read too much into the statement you quoted, and try not to get attached to any pet theories.
 
ucantbme
Posts: 14
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:51 pm

The DFDR has been read out - https://youtu.be/wqqoYs6bFJg
 
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Lighthouse
Posts: 16
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:56 pm

Sachmet wrote:
http://avherald.com/h?article=4e18553c&opt=0
The aircraft had departed Soekarno Airport at 14:36L, climbing through 1700 feet the aircraft was cleared to climb to FL290. Departure control subsequently noticed that the aircraft was not on its assigned heading of 075 degrees, but tracking northwesterly and queried the crew about the heading at 14:40L, but received no reply, within second the aircraft disappeared from radar


14:40L was exactly the time the plane crashed - coincidence?

Maybe the received the transmission and everything that followed was a reaction to it? Wrong route selected in the AP. Switched to manual. Still in the mistaking perception of turning right towards 075. Correcting to the wrong side. Spacial Disorientation. Unable to recover in time.

Forgive my speculation. Also there is a more sinister version of why the ATC query of the wrong heading could have lead to the crash but out of respect for the pilots I don't like to spell it out before the VDR recording isn't published.


Doesn't work like that. If the FMS routing was in some way invalid and this was only discovered after departure, when queried by ATC there are three problems with the theory. 1. They would respond to ATC 2. This isn't such a dramatic event that it would completely disorientate the crew. 3. They would leave the A/P engaged and just fly on headings until they were able to get an accurate routing.
 
BEG2IAH
Posts: 1030
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:29 pm

ucantbme wrote:
The DFDR has been read out - https://youtu.be/wqqoYs6bFJg


I expected the extraction process would be more sophisticated, but if it survived an impact at 400+ mph one screwdriver poking around is nothing. Also never expected they would rinse the board in water, then in alcohol unless it's to remove salty water.
Flying at the cruising altitude is (mostly) boring. I wish all flights were nothing but endless take offs and landings every 10 minutes or so.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 10659
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:12 am

BEG2IAH wrote:
ucantbme wrote:
The DFDR has been read out - https://youtu.be/wqqoYs6bFJg


I expected the extraction process would be more sophisticated, but if it survived an impact at 400+ mph one screwdriver poking around is nothing. Also never expected they would rinse the board in water, then in alcohol unless it's to remove salty water.


It's to remove saltwater, which is corrosive and conductive. That's why they don't just "plug it in" with the case intact, and see if it works. Can't risk fubar-ing the memory.
 
travaz
Posts: 1124
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 1:03 am

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:13 am

BEG2IAH wrote:
ucantbme wrote:
The DFDR has been read out - https://youtu.be/wqqoYs6bFJg


I expected the extraction process would be more sophisticated, but if it survived an impact at 400+ mph one screwdriver poking around is nothing. Also never expected they would rinse the board in water, then in alcohol unless it's to remove salty water.

I agree. I found it fascinating how they did that. I envisioned a far more high tech procedure. Now I know how it works. Great video. Lets hope they can get an idea of the cause. RIP to all victims. May thier Families have peace in thier lives restored.
 
Elkadad313
Posts: 169
Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:55 am

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:06 am

travaz wrote:
I expected the extraction process would be more sophisticated

What kind of 'more sophisticated' process did you envision?
 
BEG2IAH
Posts: 1030
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2004 3:42 pm

Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:27 am

Elkadad313 wrote:
travaz wrote:
I expected the extraction process would be more sophisticated

What kind of 'more sophisticated' process did you envision?


You might have quoted the wrong guy, so let me respond. I always thought the memory is pulled out of a box in a clean room with zero dust, rigorous climate control, full protective personal equipment (gloves, frock, coverall, boots, etc.). And then you see a guy with a screwdriver, two baths with water and alcohol, and one fancy oven. :)
Flying at the cruising altitude is (mostly) boring. I wish all flights were nothing but endless take offs and landings every 10 minutes or so.
 
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zeke
Posts: 16313
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Re: Sriwijaya Air 737-500 (SJ182 CGK-PNK) crashes shortly after takeoff

Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:12 am

BEG2IAH wrote:
I expected the extraction process would be more sophisticated, but if it survived an impact at 400+ mph one screwdriver poking around is nothing. Also never expected they would rinse the board in water, then in alcohol unless it's to remove salty water.


The contents appear to be in very good condition, nothing to suggest water got inside. They removed the orange protective membrane from the circuit board and then used water and alcohol to clean it, then into a reflow oven to make sure any solder pads that may have cracked with impact are reattached before readout.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
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