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FCOTSTW
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Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:03 am

In July 2021, QF will dust-off its 789s and 333s to restart services to SIN/LAX/HKG/NRT/SFO/JNB/DFW and its nonstop PER-LHR. Unfortunately services to ORD, JFK, and SCL have not received a green light, as it has not the 380 fleet.

This move comes following the introduction of the first COVID vaccination waves across Europe, Asia, and North America. Could this be the spearhead for some other major to launch similar initiatives?

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... ts-in-3q21
 
jayunited
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:17 am

The Australian Government has already come out and stated they will decided when to reopen their borders not Qantas.

Qantas is optimistic about a July return but there have been no such guarantees or promises given by the government, and given the slow rollout of these vaccines world wide Qantas's July date may be more pie in the sky than reality.

https://onemileatatime.com/australia-go ... -resuming/
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:30 am

That is very poor journalism from CH Aviation given everything that has been said since this was announced last week.

This is literally nothing more than a wish list at this stage, and given that the Australian government doesn’t expect ‘full’ vaccination until October it seems very unlikely that they will countenance opening the border before then.
 
blandy62
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:44 am

that's what Qantas would like but in the end, it will depend on the governments' decision to reopen borders.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:51 am

blandy62 wrote:
that's what Qantas would like but in the end, it will depend on the governments' decision to reopen borders.


Qantas can elect to start flying before the borders reopen, you know. They never had to stop flying - other airlines like Qatar Airways never stopped serving Australia at all.

There will be plenty of cargo for Qantas to haul and they will be permitted to carry passengers like the other airlines both to and from Australia.

Starting up in July will also keep some pressure on the Australian Government not to delay when it becomes time to open the borders.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:51 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
That is very poor journalism from CH Aviation given everything that has been said since this was announced last week.

This is literally nothing more than a wish list at this stage, and given that the Australian government doesn’t expect ‘full’ vaccination until October it seems very unlikely that they will countenance opening the border before then.

CH aviation tends to, in my opinion, publish wish lists.

I hope fascination efforts move forward enough.
 
dcajet
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
That is very poor journalism from CH Aviation given everything that has been said since this was announced last week.

This is literally nothing more than a wish list at this stage, and given that the Australian government doesn’t expect ‘full’ vaccination until October it seems very unlikely that they will countenance opening the border before then.

CH aviation tends to, in my opinion, publish wish lists.

I hope fascination efforts move forward enough.


Did you mean vaccination instead?
 
jfk777
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:19 am

Qantas has 14 787-9, if they plan to fly to London via Perth and Singapore plus LAX from Sydney, MEL and Brisbane plus DFW plus Johannesburg and SFO from Melbourne and SYD. Do the Aussie's have enough 787-9's if all these flights are happening ? Seems very ambitious unless more 787 are coming from Boeing.
 
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SuseJ772
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:10 am

ClassicLover wrote:
blandy62 wrote:
that's what Qantas would like but in the end, it will depend on the governments' decision to reopen borders.


Qantas can elect to start flying before the borders reopen, you know. They never had to stop flying - other airlines like Qatar Airways never stopped serving Australia at all.

There will be plenty of cargo for Qantas to haul and they will be permitted to carry passengers like the other airlines both to and from Australia.

Starting up in July will also keep some pressure on the Australian Government not to delay when it becomes time to open the borders.


Plus you have the Olympics. You're telling me that Australia is going to deny their Olympians and their citizens who have been vaccinated the ability to go to the Olympics. I mean, I know that the Olympics should hardly be any of our's highest concern, but that is a lot of pressure to just be "playing it safe."
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:38 am

jfk777 wrote:
Qantas has 14 787-9, if they plan to fly to London via Perth and Singapore plus LAX from Sydney, MEL and Brisbane plus DFW plus Johannesburg and SFO from Melbourne and SYD. Do the Aussie's have enough 787-9's if all these flights are happening ? Seems very ambitious unless more 787 are coming from Boeing.


It will be London via Perth with the 787. Singapore will be an A330 and no onward flight to London. There are enough Boeing 787s.

SuseJ772 wrote:
Plus you have the Olympics. You're telling me that Australia is going to deny their Olympians and their citizens who have been vaccinated the ability to go to the Olympics. I mean, I know that the Olympics should hardly be any of our's highest concern, but that is a lot of pressure to just be "playing it safe."


Australia will send the team to the Tokyo Olympics (if it goes ahead) as well as the support staff and so on. They will deny their citizens a chance to go. At the moment, you have to apply to leave Australia if you're an Australian citizen. If that is still in place, nobody from Australia will be attending in person - they will watch it live on television.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:52 am

jfk777 wrote:
Qantas has 14 787-9, if they plan to fly to London via Perth and Singapore plus LAX from Sydney, MEL and Brisbane plus DFW plus Johannesburg and SFO from Melbourne and SYD. Do the Aussie's have enough 787-9's if all these flights are happening ? Seems very ambitious unless more 787 are coming from Boeing.


This was discussed in the Australian Aviation thread last week. I don’t say that to be a jerk, just to say that various scenarios were played out. The short answer is no, 14 aircraft is not enough to operate the entire proposed schedule, at least not daily. If routes like SYD-SFO/DFW/SCL/JNB are 3-4 weekly then it could be done, but it’s tight.
 
melpax
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:48 am

ClassicLover wrote:

SuseJ772 wrote:
Plus you have the Olympics. You're telling me that Australia is going to deny their Olympians and their citizens who have been vaccinated the ability to go to the Olympics. I mean, I know that the Olympics should hardly be any of our's highest concern, but that is a lot of pressure to just be "playing it safe."


Australia will send the team to the Tokyo Olympics (if it goes ahead) as well as the support staff and so on. They will deny their citizens a chance to go. At the moment, you have to apply to leave Australia if you're an Australian citizen. If that is still in place, nobody from Australia will be attending in person - they will watch it live on television.


At the moment, permission is generally only given to leave Australia for business (which would cover professional sports), migration & compassionate family reasons. Outbound tourism from Australia has been effectively banned for the duration. Returning/travelling to Australia, you have to have a negative PCR test, and then undergo 14 days quarantine in a govenment-controlled facility on arrival.

Seeing this happen with the players & support staff for the Australian Open ATM. Everyone will spend 2 weeks in a quarantine hotel when they arrive, the people arriving in MEL will be only allowed to leave their rooms for daily training, under government & police supervision. They can only bring 1 support person. Some of the top players will arrive in ADL for quarantine, where they have been allowed to bring their usual hangers-on, but they have been warned that should an outbreak occur in Adelaide, they may not be allowed to travel to Melbourne if the Victorian government shuts the border with SA, or if ADL is declared a hotspot....

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/tennis/ ... 56tg7.html

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/tennis/ ... 56sjb.html

At this stage, the only Australian spectators at the Olympics will be expats. Though depending on how things go, Japan has been mooted as a possibly 'travel bubble' country. So we may be able to travel there late in the year, all going well.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:13 am

SuseJ772 wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
blandy62 wrote:
that's what Qantas would like but in the end, it will depend on the governments' decision to reopen borders.


Qantas can elect to start flying before the borders reopen, you know. They never had to stop flying - other airlines like Qatar Airways never stopped serving Australia at all.

There will be plenty of cargo for Qantas to haul and they will be permitted to carry passengers like the other airlines both to and from Australia.

Starting up in July will also keep some pressure on the Australian Government not to delay when it becomes time to open the borders.


Plus you have the Olympics. You're telling me that Australia is going to deny their Olympians and their citizens who have been vaccinated the ability to go to the Olympics. I mean, I know that the Olympics should hardly be any of our's highest concern, but that is a lot of pressure to just be "playing it safe."


According to the latest news (actually released yesterday) 2021 Olympics is unlikely to happened and the government will have to make the decision soon as it will seriously affect Tokyo's budgeting.

https://hk.sports.yahoo.com/news/%E6%96%B0%E5%9E%8B%E8%82%BA%E7%82%8E-%E6%97%A5%E5%AA%92%E7%88%86%E6%96%99%E5%8F%96%E6%B6%88%E6%9D%B1%E5%A5%A7-2032%E5%B9%B4%E8%A3%9C%E8%BE%A6%E7%95%B6%E8%A3%9C%E5%84%9F-114837309.html
 
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calstanford
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:07 am

It was always a farce to postpone by just one year considering how bad the pandemic has been affecting travel already last year
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:42 am

ClassicLover wrote:
blandy62 wrote:
that's what Qantas would like but in the end, it will depend on the governments' decision to reopen borders.


Qantas can elect to start flying before the borders reopen, you know. They never had to stop flying - other airlines like Qatar Airways never stopped serving Australia at all.

There will be plenty of cargo for Qantas to haul and they will be permitted to carry passengers like the other airlines both to and from Australia.

Starting up in July will also keep some pressure on the Australian Government not to delay when it becomes time to open the borders.


Its not the Federal Government closing the boarders, its the State Government and the Premiers that are opening the boarders and if there is one or 2 with COVID they panic and close the boarders. Remember the main gateways into Australia are Brisbane/Melbourne/Sydney on the Eastern seaboard and Perth on the Western seaboard. Mark McGowan in Western Australia has had a hard boarder right from the start making traveling to/from Perth very difficult. Dan Andrews in Victoria put us through hell here in Victoria even now can close the boarder at the last minute (lot of people caught out over Christmas), the amount of paper work me and my wife had to go through just to go to Tasmania, the Premier of Queensland had her state locked up for months and on the weekend shut down Brisbane, its not the Federal Government doing this its the States, I think Allan Joyce is chasing dreams if he thinks Qantas will be back to International flying by July, I hope he is right but I doubt it.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:59 am

This is nothing more than a revenue generating cash grab by QF- there is no way the vast majority of these flights will be operating from July. Case in point: in Italy and many countries, the vaccines are being administered in priority order and those under 60 won't get the shot until October.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:25 pm

I don't quite understand why QF does not at least try to use some planes for cargo (and small amounts of passengers), similar to what other airlines flying into Australia (SYD) have been doing, like AA, UA, and DL. This would help with repatriations as well. They could even just focus on that. I don't see the majority of these flights resuming though before 2022 at the rate things are going.
 
melpax
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:38 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
I don't quite understand why QF does not at least try to use some planes for cargo (and small amounts of passengers), similar to what other airlines flying into Australia (SYD) have been doing, like AA, UA, and DL. This would help with repatriations as well. They could even just focus on that. I don't see the majority of these flights resuming though before 2022 at the rate things are going.


The Federal Government is chartering QF aircraft for some repatriation flights, the main issue with people trying to get back to Australia is the artificial capacity limits imposed on inbound pax numbers due to the need for all inbound pax to undertake 14 days hotel quarantine. The winter hard lockdown in MEL made things worse as MEL was closed to inbound international pax for several months. Hotel quarantine in MEL is now run totally by the state government, with no private security involvement after the fiasco earlier in the year. The state Corrections Commissioner was brought in to run the MEL hotel quarantine operation, which gives an idea of how seriously the state governments are taking things here.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:41 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
I don't quite understand why QF does not at least try to use some planes for cargo (and small amounts of passengers), similar to what other airlines flying into Australia (SYD) have been doing, like AA, UA, and DL. This would help with repatriations as well. They could even just focus on that. I don't see the majority of these flights resuming though before 2022 at the rate things are going.

International arrivals into Australia are capped by the federal government, and the cap just got reduced further. Plus, they are already flying their A330s to Asian cities like SIN and HKG.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:06 pm

I was thinking about this thread ladt nightv(yes, that much of an AvGeek). Once vaccinations are common enough to require them, I see airlines restarting. Production is accelerating, but not enough compared to Global demand.

By July that will be the case. e.g., Moderna is ramping up a contract manufacturer, Lonza, who will add another 800,000 doses per day.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... scaling-up

Johnson & Johnson seems delayed until February. That will be the volume in addition to Oxford-AstraZeneca.
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.forbes.c ... ccine/amp/

Pfizer is doing an even larger ramp, trying for 2 billion doses a year. This is ramping production from 2 to six sites:

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandem ... s-500k?amp

So a July return is plausible.

dcajet wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
That is very poor journalism from CH Aviation given everything that has been said since this was announced last week.

This is literally nothing more than a wish list at this stage, and given that the Australian government doesn’t expect ‘full’ vaccination until October it seems very unlikely that they will countenance opening the border before then.

CH aviation tends to, in my opinion, publish wish lists.

I hope fascination efforts move forward enough.


Did you mean vaccination instead?

Yes, dang autocorrect strikes again.

Lightsaber
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:02 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
I don't quite understand why QF does not at least try to use some planes for cargo (and small amounts of passengers), similar to what other airlines flying into Australia (SYD) have been doing, like AA, UA, and DL. This would help with repatriations as well. They could even just focus on that. I don't see the majority of these flights resuming though before 2022 at the rate things are going.


Qantas have been running cargo only flights with their A330s to HKG, PVG etc and also have their 767 freighter which has been in overdrive and their longstanding agreement with Atlas.

This is just a stab in the dark, but I think the main reason Qantas haven’t run any passenger flights other than charters is that as all of their flights will start or end in Australia they would be impacted by quarantine caps on every flight they operate. As such, there is no opportunity to ‘share’ the costs of running flights to Australia that are capped at less than 50 pax on a network wide basis.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:08 pm

Flyingsottsman wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
blandy62 wrote:
that's what Qantas would like but in the end, it will depend on the governments' decision to reopen borders.


Qantas can elect to start flying before the borders reopen, you know. They never had to stop flying - other airlines like Qatar Airways never stopped serving Australia at all.

There will be plenty of cargo for Qantas to haul and they will be permitted to carry passengers like the other airlines both to and from Australia.

Starting up in July will also keep some pressure on the Australian Government not to delay when it becomes time to open the borders.


Its not the Federal Government closing the boarders, its the State Government and the Premiers that are opening the boarders and if there is one or 2 with COVID they panic and close the boarders. Remember the main gateways into Australia are Brisbane/Melbourne/Sydney on the Eastern seaboard and Perth on the Western seaboard. Mark McGowan in Western Australia has had a hard boarder right from the start making traveling to/from Perth very difficult. Dan Andrews in Victoria put us through hell here in Victoria even now can close the boarder at the last minute (lot of people caught out over Christmas), the amount of paper work me and my wife had to go through just to go to Tasmania, the Premier of Queensland had her state locked up for months and on the weekend shut down Brisbane, its not the Federal Government doing this its the States, I think Allan Joyce is chasing dreams if he thinks Qantas will be back to International flying by July, I hope he is right but I doubt it.


With domestic (state) borders you are completely correct, but international border restrictions are indeed a Commonwealth issue. The states are responsible for organising quarantine,* but the actual decision to close (and therefore open) the international border sits with the Commonwealth government.

*This will be politically unpopular, but after this I personally think there is an argument for COAG to reach an agreement with the Commonwealth to relinquish their health and biosecurity powers. There are too many hands in the pot right now, and that is making things inefficient and exposing gaps between areas of responsibility. This is basically what caused the Ruby Princess debacle at the beginning of the pandemic, nobody was quite sure what they or anyone else was doing.
 
FCOTSTW
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:39 am

ClassicLover wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Qantas has 14 787-9, if they plan to fly to London via Perth and Singapore plus LAX from Sydney, MEL and Brisbane plus DFW plus Johannesburg and SFO from Melbourne and SYD. Do the Aussie's have enough 787-9's if all these flights are happening ? Seems very ambitious unless more 787 are coming from Boeing.


It will be London via Perth with the 787. Singapore will be an A330 and no onward flight to London. There are enough Boeing 787s.

SuseJ772 wrote:
Plus you have the Olympics. You're telling me that Australia is going to deny their Olympians and their citizens who have been vaccinated the ability to go to the Olympics. I mean, I know that the Olympics should hardly be any of our's highest concern, but that is a lot of pressure to just be "playing it safe."


Australia will send the team to the Tokyo Olympics (if it goes ahead) as well as the support staff and so on. They will deny their citizens a chance to go. At the moment, you have to apply to leave Australia if you're an Australian citizen. If that is still in place, nobody from Australia will be attending in person - they will watch it live on television.


380s did not get a green light.
 
Paolo18
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:52 am

If Australians are vaccinated with AstraZeneca vaccine rated at 62% effective there will be no chance they will be flying high along with Alan Joyce.
 
andrew1996
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:04 am

Considering all the international airlines that continue to serve Australia I am surprised QF never decided to operate a skeleton service to key destinations on a regular basis too like 3X weekly flights to SIN, HKG, LAX. Instead, Australia seems to be fully dependent on foreign airlines to bring Australian citizens back to Australia and for Australian residents to leave. True pax count is significantly capped on each flight but so are air tickets and not to mention high cargo prices in the belly
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:07 am

andrew1996 wrote:
Considering all the international airlines that continue to serve Australia I am surprised QF never decided to operate a skeleton service to key destinations on a regular basis too like 3X weekly flights to SIN, HKG, LAX. Instead, Australia seems to be fully dependent on foreign airlines to bring Australian citizens back to Australia and for Australian residents to leave. True pax count is significantly capped on each flight but so are air tickets and not to mention high cargo prices in the belly


Outbound airfares are not that expensive at all either - Sydney to Dublin three days out is like $1,199 one way on Emirates. It's not extortionate by any means.
 
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calstanford
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:40 am

lightsaber wrote:
I was thinking about this thread ladt nightv(yes, that much of an AvGeek). Once vaccinations are common enough to require them, I see airlines restarting. Production is accelerating, but not enough compared to Global demand.

So a July return is plausible.


I wish that was true, but I sadly disagree. Not many 20-40 year olds around the world will be vaccinated by then (the prime leisure traveler group. 80 years old don't travel as much). And regardless of that, many governments have already said "vaccines don't prevent spread". So countries across Asia and Oceania won't open up to travelers without still requiring PCR tests AND quarantine, which will effectively kill any kind of leisure travel.
 
lalib
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:07 am

I heard from a Doctor's interview that one of the vaccine manufacturers has a manufacturing plant in Australia.

Say Oz ramps up production because they have capability, manpower and are not constrained due to Covid pick up the slack and the vaccines are transported from Australia. This would be great for QF.
 
GuillaumePhilly
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:16 am

lightsaber wrote:
By July that will be the case. e.g., Moderna is ramping up a contract manufacturer, Lonza, who will add another 800,000 doses per day.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... scaling-up

Johnson & Johnson seems delayed until February. That will be the volume in addition to Oxford-AstraZeneca.
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.forbes.c ... ccine/amp/

Pfizer is doing an even larger ramp, trying for 2 billion doses a year. This is ramping production from 2 to six sites:

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandem ... s-500k?amp

So a July return is plausible.


Thank you SO much for providing sources to back up your opinion! I would hope by July we could start seeing schedules start to look a bit more "normalized." But as we're seeing here in the U.S. the bottleneck right now isn't having enough vaccines on hand, it's the logistics of actually getting them into people's arms all while the same pool of healthcare workers are being deluged by the largest spike we've seen yet during this pandemic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/world/gottleib-reset-us-vaccines.html

I'm thinking Sept/Oct timeframe.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:14 am

lalib wrote:
I heard from a Doctor's interview that one of the vaccine manufacturers has a manufacturing plant in Australia.

Say Oz ramps up production because they have capability, manpower and are not constrained due to Covid pick up the slack and the vaccines are transported from Australia. This would be great for QF.


CSL, formerly the Commonwealth Serum Laboratories, I believe has been contracted to produce at least one of the vaccines. If I correctly recall, it’s the AstraZeneca variant. At this stage they will be manufacturing 50 Million doses.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:45 am

Its worth remembering that vaccinating en-mass is not logistically easy. For the dual-dose vaccines the maximal immunity comes a fortnight after the second dose, which is at least 21 days after the first. So 5 weeks from the original dose, at best. The U.K. government is extending the period between the first and second doses to 10 weeks. So 12 weeks to “full” immunity. Given that no-one realistically expects otherwise healthy under 50s to begin having their vaccine until the summer it is likely to be the end of 2021 before “full” vaccination is achieved in the U.K. and later again before the full benefits are known.
 
anstar
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:20 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
What I’ll never understand is how a virus (Covid) that has been named a cousin of the common cold, has more than a 99% survival rate, has caused airlines such as Qantas, Delta, Porter, etc., and governments such as Australia, Canada, etc. to have gone completely stupid and overreacted to this situation. It never should’ve got to this point. Shame airline, hospitality people livelihoods have been flipped upside down. Ridiculous.


Whilst the survival rate may be high, Covid has a higher hospitalisation rate. It also has long term effects.

So if your hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid as is happening in the US and UK then there are no beds left for people with heart attacks, stroke, traffic accidents, trauma, kidney failure etc etc So the impact is wider spread. I have a friend in the US who screenshot a text from the govt saying don't come to the hospital if sick as its full and you wont be able to be seen. Thats the difference between Covid and the common cold.

As for over reacting... I'd rather be in Australia right now than the US, UK or Europe who have failed to manage the pandemic.
 
melpax
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:48 am

[quote="anstar"][/quote]

A friend has heard from one of their friends, who is a Doctor at an LA hospital.

He was told that there is virtually no spare ICU capacity at his friend's hospital, and that patients are taking longer to recover this time around compared to last year.

Frightening stuff, and it wasn't an overreaction when Brisbane was locked down over the weekend due to a quarantine hotel cleaner contracting the 'UK' strain, and subsequently passing it on to their partner.
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:12 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
With domestic (state) borders you are completely correct, but international border restrictions are indeed a Commonwealth issue. The states are responsible for organising quarantine,* but the actual decision to close (and therefore open) the international border sits with the Commonwealth government.
.


It is, but the States can effectively override Government decisions by imposing entry restrictions into their States. For example, when the one-way NZ bubble initially started, only NSW/NT allowed flights from NZ. The other states were not allowing NZ citizens to enter without quarantine/restrictions.

I can easily see a situation where the Australian government allows outbound travel but then certain States may choose to impose quarantine upon entry back into Australia, whilst this does not stop people from flying overseas, the forced quarantine would discourage many travellers. The vaccine has not shown to stop transmission, so given several States have imposed strict border restrictions with even a handful of cases, it's going to be interesting to see what each state does when a large proportion of the population has been vaccinated but there is ongoing transmission...
 
braniff2hav
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:30 pm

Australia will most likely not open until Jan of 2022... sooooooo
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:48 pm

melpax wrote:
anstar wrote:


A friend has heard from one of their friends, who is a Doctor at an LA hospital.

He was told that there is virtually no spare ICU capacity at his friend's hospital, and that patients are taking longer to recover this time around compared to last year.

Frightening stuff, and it wasn't an overreaction when Brisbane was locked down over the weekend due to a quarantine hotel cleaner contracting the 'UK' strain, and subsequently passing it on to their partner.

California messed up not installing high flow oxygen. My sister's hospital in Colorado has more high flow oxygen capacity than all of Los Angeles; as someone who once ran ERs and runs a critical care Covid19 ward, she has contacts. She is demanding we evacuate my parents to Colorado because California isn't helping doctors, they are getting in the way.

High flow oxygen, with some expensive meds I cannot pronounce correctly nor spell right, is getting 80% of her patients out in 3 days instead if 3 weeks. Her #1 problem is patients feel so good on high flow oxygen they demand to be released when they might not survive off it; they aren't convinced when they see other patients released a day after the "you need to be in the hospital" lecture. High flow, with medicines, sometimes works that quickly.

So I see us turning a corner. While Los Angeles is installing equipment done by most states by April, on Federal money, we will lag.

Most states are vaccinating the over 70. That will take a week. Once California snd New York release the vaccine and actually vaccinate front line (instead of executives), a nice improvement will occur.

This means that by April, enough people will be vaccinated on both sides to consider opening up Los Angeles for QF. I'm only talking plausible, not regulations. By the Pfizer will have six factories making Vaccine and the 2nd Moderna will be online.

I don't like the idea of proof of vaccination being required for airline employees and passengers, but I think that is the minimum to restart Australian travel.

I do not think people realize the economic consequences if lock downs. We will. That means opening up. I just hope it is done wisely.

Lightsaber
 
sccutler
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:59 pm

Lightsaber has cogent points, above.

In addition, the destructive effects of the lockdowns on the health of the population is rarely considered, and it's substantial. I suspect this is more because quantifying this category of harm is so very difficult, than having much to do with power grabs and the like.
 
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ADent
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Most states are vaccinating the over 70. That will take a week.
Lightsaber

Our state is expecting 70% coverage of 70+ by March 1. Currently getting 70,000 doses a week for 550k seniors and 125k frontline works (with about 240k doses already in state). So that is 6 weeks to get enough to cover that group.

I figure we should open up domestically when 65+ is vaccinated as 85% of deaths come from that group - though the state said only 40% of hospitalizations.

But I can’t imagine countries that did a better job containing it, like Australia, will want to open up widely until at least 50-60% of their country (35+?) is vaccinated - and New Zealand will want to go higher.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:59 pm

SYDSpotter wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
With domestic (state) borders you are completely correct, but international border restrictions are indeed a Commonwealth issue. The states are responsible for organising quarantine,* but the actual decision to close (and therefore open) the international border sits with the Commonwealth government.
.


It is, but the States can effectively override Government decisions by imposing entry restrictions into their States. For example, when the one-way NZ bubble initially started, only NSW/NT allowed flights from NZ. The other states were not allowing NZ citizens to enter without quarantine/restrictions.

I can easily see a situation where the Australian government allows outbound travel but then certain States may choose to impose quarantine upon entry back into Australia, whilst this does not stop people from flying overseas, the forced quarantine would discourage many travellers. The vaccine has not shown to stop transmission, so given several States have imposed strict border restrictions with even a handful of
cases, it's going to be interesting to see what each state does when a large proportion of the population has been vaccinated but there is ongoing transmission...


It is a moot point if states can override Commonwealth decisions [in relation to the Foregin Affairs power], its never been tested in the High Court. The Commonwealth has unlimited control over international travel to/from Australia, so international arrivales into anywhere in Australia is a Commonwealth matter. If the states choose impose quarantine on people arriving directly from overseas is another moot point. International quaratine is a commonwealth matter. Of course there could be political ramification in a states/commonwealth fight [there always is].

Gemuser
 
wenders825
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:51 am

DylanHarvey wrote:
We need 5-6 billion people vaccinated before it’s safe to step on a plane. I think we need a mass grounding now.

by what metric do you consider it "unsafe" now
 
jayunited
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:22 pm

Qantas might want to rethink their plans on resuming international flights in Q3 2021.

The Points Guy is now reporting the Australia's Health Department Secretary Brendan Murphy is saying it is possible that Australia's borders will remain closed for most of 2021 even if most of the population is vaccinated in 2021 as planned. According to Health Department Secretary there is still much we do not know the vaccines particularly if the vaccines will prevent transmission. As a result it is entirely possible Australia's borders may remain closed until early 2022.

It is looking more and more like Qantas's plans to resume international travel in Q3 of 2021 may not happen.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/australia ... open-2022/
 
redroo
Posts: 599
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:19 pm

Based on internal forward bookings, discussions about stand downs, putting planes back to bed, and more layoffs... I can’t see it happening.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:49 am

ADent wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Most states are vaccinating the over 70. That will take a week.
Lightsaber

Our state is expecting 70% coverage of 70+ by March 1. Currently getting 70,000 doses a week for 550k seniors and 125k frontline works (with about 240k doses already in state). So that is 6 weeks to get enough to cover that group.

I figure we should open up domestically when 65+ is vaccinated as 85% of deaths come from that group - though the state said only 40% of hospitalizations.

But I can’t imagine countries that did a better job containing it, like Australia, will want to open up widely until at least 50-60% of their country (35+?) is vaccinated - and New Zealand will want to go higher.

Wow, some states are doing great, some, like California, are doing poorly.

Locking down has a cost in lives (depression) while spreading it to the vulnerable is bad too. I now have had a small number of people who report to me get it (one completely asymptomatic, one miserable and out 4 weeks, others too early to tell, but they sound funny on the phone... Funny, I wasn't exposed as I traveled and out if courtesy socially distanced...).

But I know doctors who are on schedule to get the willing 70+ vaccinated in a week. Then a few weeks for all the caregivers. Note, I was talking first fose and poorly worded. Six weeks is a fine timefeame for 70+. My best contacts are in Colorado, so doing better than most... CA needs to step up.

A map (lagging data):
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1252085

So talking Australia, they need to set a date vaccines are available, give it 10+ weeks to implement, than set up when travel may happen. There is no perfect Vaccine. People will die from lockdown (e.g., suicide)
A interesting read on mental health and lockdowns, only read if you are in a good frame of mind:
https://www.psycom.net/covid-19-suicide-rates

So pick your poison. Eventually if the lockdown makes no sense, the mandate of the people is lost.

I do worry about kids and kids transmitting it. One of my direct reports just caught it from his child... rhoo rhoo.... Every parent knows their snot monster will get them sick many times. How does Australia handle it with no child approved vaccine?

So a really high fraction of adults is required.

Lightsaber
 
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PapaWhiskey
Posts: 5
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:10 am

A less negative commentary from Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison regarding border closures I've come accross in an AFR article https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/scott-morrison-leaves-open-chance-of-border-openings-before-2022-20210119-p56v7r - I don't have an AFR subscription (or any news service) and was able to view this article in full.

The federal government could seek a more ambitious timeline for reopening Australia's international borders, promising a "week by week" review of medical advice and rollout of COVID-19 vaccines – conditions critical to ending travel bans and new pain for the tourism sector before 2022.

In contrast with the prediction of Health Department secretary Brendan Murphy that an end to travel restrictions was off the agenda until 2022, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said plans for another 12 months of restrictions and hotel quarantine rules could be reconsidered.


A foreign airline source told The Australian Financial Review the prospect of Australia keeping its borders closed into 2022 would be a scary one for many international carriers flying into the country regularly before the pandemic.

Travel hopes rest with controlled bubbles
But they believed Professor Murphy's comments were highly speculative, and aimed at tempering any expectations that the rollout of coronavirus vaccines would make long-haul travel to the US or Europe instantly possible.

The source was confident that travel bubbles between Australia and other virus success stories such as New Zealand or Singapore, for example, would eventuate some time this year.


As a keen traveller I hope that things improve much quicker than some of the "experts" predict, I do think the "bubble" concept makes sense for restarting international travel, if another country has largely completed vaccinations also then opening up in both directions with that country makes sense. I think that once vaccinations are complete the measure for success should no longer be cases but level of illness, if you end up with the large majority of detected cases being asymptomatic or very mild symptoms then there's no pressure on medical services and the original reason for restrictions and lockdowns is no more.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Vaccine Confident: Qantas to Resume International Flights in 3Q21

Wed Jan 20, 2021 10:46 am

lightsaber wrote:

So a really high fraction of adults is required.

Lightsaber


Which is why QF won't be flying internationally in July. As I said before, it's a money grab and travel credits will then be issued.

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