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bigb
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Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:33 pm

 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:45 pm

Looks like this is the last 747 order

The 747-8Fs are expected to be delivered from May through October 2022. These aircraft are the last four 747-8Fs that Boeing plans to produce.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atlas-ai ... 00187.html
 
bigb
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:59 pm

I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.
 
raylee67
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:01 pm

Would Atlas use these for Amazon one day?

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Looks like this is the last 747 order

The 747-8Fs are expected to be delivered from May through October 2022. These aircraft are the last four 747-8Fs that Boeing plans to produce.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atlas-ai ... 00187.html


Hypothetically, if some carriers jump out there and want to place an order of 10 or more so 747-8F and can fit manufacturing schedule to keep the line flowing without any stoppage, will Boeing take those orders? Technically each new frame is now almost pure profit since the large fixed cost of R&D should have been fully amortized.
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:06 pm

But do they have, or can they source, the parts to make more beyond these four, now that at least one supplier has stopped making them?
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:09 pm

raylee67 wrote:
Would Atlas use these for Amazon one day?

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Looks like this is the last 747 order

The 747-8Fs are expected to be delivered from May through October 2022. These aircraft are the last four 747-8Fs that Boeing plans to produce.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atlas-ai ... 00187.html


Hypothetically, if some carriers jump out there and want to place an order of 10 or more so 747-8F and can fit manufacturing schedule to keep the line flowing without any stoppage, will Boeing take those orders? Technically each new frame is now almost pure profit since the large fixed cost of R&D should have been fully amortized.


I think the issue is that the Triumph factory that made the skin panels closed, so there is a huge expense restarting production.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ed-factory

As far as I know, Amazon only has dedicated 737s and 767s. They aren’t flying long haul with dedicated planes yet.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:12 pm

bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


With the fuselage production shut down and tooling disassembled, I’d be fascinated to hear your future order predictions.
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VSMUT
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:16 pm

bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


Too late. Production is already shutting down as the final components are being assembled. Many components are already out of production.
 
bigb
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:16 pm

Spacepope wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


With the fuselage production shut down and tooling disassembled, I’d be fascinated to hear your future order predictions.


Ya know, I realized that. It would be interesting how it is done.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:23 pm

Couldn't Boeing just call Spirit and order any fuselage parts needed if somebody wants more 747F now? I know orders are closed but technically from a pure production logistics perspective it should be possible?
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:32 pm

VSMUT wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


Too late. Production is already shutting down as the final components are being assembled. Many components are already out of production.


...and machinists were fired? Not yet? (Trying hard not to troll, just curious about employment for workers on this program in light of all the covid stuff)
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:32 pm

Noshow wrote:
Couldn't Boeing just call Spirit and order any fuselage parts needed if somebody wants more 747F now? I know orders are closed but technically from a pure production logistics perspective it should be possible?


Let's say (total guess) 20,000 parts are still available, but 463 parts will need to be re-tooled and re-certified, which will take years. How would you proceed?
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:33 pm

I thought the Air Force One birds would be the last off the line. No?
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:35 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Couldn't Boeing just call Spirit and order any fuselage parts needed if somebody wants more 747F now? I know orders are closed but technically from a pure production logistics perspective it should be possible?


Let's say (total guess) 20,000 parts are still available, but 463 parts will need to be re-tooled and re-certified, which will take years. How would you proceed?


The correct answer would be "do whatever it take to keep the 747 in production!"

But, the practical, realistic answer would be "direct them to order the 777F, or pursue a used airframe."
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:38 pm

flyfresno wrote:
I thought the Air Force One birds would be the last off the line. No?


They were built years ago NTU TransAero birds.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:39 pm

flyfresno wrote:
I thought the Air Force One birds would be the last off the line. No?


Weren't those already built for someone else and weren't delivered so they've been sitting around for several years?
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:39 pm

Noshow wrote:
Couldn't Boeing just call Spirit and order any fuselage parts needed if somebody wants more 747F now? I know orders are closed but technically from a pure production logistics perspective it should be possible?


THey could, but it would be extremely expensive especially because Triumph made the fuselage skins, not spirit.

Anything can be done for the right price. I just don’t see that the 747-8F is will sell for a high enough price to justify the expense.
Last edited by Weatherwatcher1 on Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:39 pm

ssteve wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


Too late. Production is already shutting down as the final components are being assembled. Many components are already out of production.


...and machinists were fired? Not yet? (Trying hard not to troll, just curious about employment for workers on this program in light of all the covid stuff)


Yep. Triumph Group that made the fuselage panels started auctioning off equipment from its production line in late 2019, and started laying off staff at the start of 2020 (just weeks prior to Coronavirus).
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:41 pm

Congrats Boeing! Ray of light in a world full of dull A350’s and B787’s.

Come on Qatar, I know you want to order some more too, and Cargolux.
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:42 pm

morrisond wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
I thought the Air Force One birds would be the last off the line. No?


They were built years ago NTU TransAero birds.


Am I correct the two VC-25 replacements are the 8i variant and not the F?
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:43 pm

bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.




Same here. Maybe it'll be like the 767 in the early 2010s, always getting some new order when they're ready to close the line... Wonder how they'll manage if suppliers are ending their contracts for Boeing.
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:44 pm

flyfresno wrote:
I thought the Air Force One birds would be the last off the line. No?



Those were the ex-Transaero birds, and they're bought by the US to fly the future POTUS.
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m1m2
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:50 pm

I'm confused about the title of this thread. Why is 747-8i in the title?
 
VSMUT
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:59 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


Same here. Maybe it'll be like the 767 in the early 2010s, always getting some new order when they're ready to close the line... Wonder how they'll manage if suppliers are ending their contracts for Boeing.


Unlike the 767, these aren't new orders. Boeing was building them as white tails without a customer in expectation of selling them. This isn't prolonging the 747 production any further.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:01 pm

Spacepope wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.

With the fuselage production shut down and tooling disassembled, I’d be fascinated to hear your future order predictions.

People here are confident to say Boeing will restart 757 production after it has been closed almost two decades now, so be prepared...
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bigb
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:04 pm

m1m2 wrote:
I'm confused about the title of this thread. Why is 747-8i in the title?


It shouldn’t have been. Mods did some merging of threads, as this title wasn’t my original title....
 
bigb
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.

With the fuselage production shut down and tooling disassembled, I’d be fascinated to hear your future order predictions.

People here are confident to say Boeing will restart 757 production after it has been closed almost two decades now, so be prepared...


757 sales dried up then it was about a 5-10 year period where the 757 use age found new life and by that point way too late to restart production. I know production of parts have ceased. Just my gut feeling for now. Doesn’t mean I am not unfamiliar with the slim odds of that gut feeling coming to fruition.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:16 pm

So Atlas is taking the last birds off the line. Sweet. I thought it was going to be UPS.
 
m1m2
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:19 pm

I'm thinking it all comes down to cost. If an airline or cargo company wants enough to make it profitable for Boeing, then they would make it work. As long as Boeing holds the rights to the 747, in theory they could build one at any time, but generally the cost of doing so is prohibitive.

Having said that, it seems unlikely in the current environment that any airline or anyone else would want to spend that amount of money.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:22 pm

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bigb
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:23 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
So Atlas is taking the last birds off the line. Sweet. I thought it was going to be UPS.


It was going to be UPS, now it will be Atlas.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:26 pm

Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:28 pm

bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?

Nose door loading, which occasionally comes in handy as Atlas does a lot of charter work.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:28 pm

bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?

In these media releases. They’ll say anything. But there’s Nose door benefits.

Congrats to Boeing and Atlas
Last edited by Opus99 on Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:29 pm

bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?


well, for one, you can sell space for oversize equipment, that you can upcharge. Wind equipment, oil equipment, etc. that are too long to fit in the side door can go through the nose.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:30 pm

VSMUT wrote:
ssteve wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Too late. Production is already shutting down as the final components are being assembled. Many components are already out of production.


...and machinists were fired? Not yet? (Trying hard not to troll, just curious about employment for workers on this program in light of all the covid stuff)


Yep. Triumph Group that made the fuselage panels started auctioning off equipment from its production line in late 2019, and started laying off staff at the start of 2020 (just weeks prior to Coronavirus).


Interestingly Boeing found enough components laying around to assemble 4 more 747-8F's :bigthumbsup: There was one available as UPS took over a Volga Dnjepr 748F NTU, and there were rumors Boeing could assemble 1 or 2 more with the components they still had in stock. Nice to see they actually can build 3 more.

As for restarting production beyond this order, apparently Boeing hardly made money (if any) with the 747-8's they sold bottom line. So with new suppliers and additional cost involved, the price tag of any 747-8 produced for new orders wouldn't be commercially viable IMO.

I wonder if the 2nd 747-8i produced (LH NTU), now catching dust in the desert, could be converted to a 747-8F? I mean a real one, without stretched upper deck. The other way around certainly was possible, KLM did so with some of their 747-200s in addition to their 747-300 order decades ago.
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:35 pm

The PR says explicitly that they are the last 747s:

The 747-8 airplanes in this agreement will be the final four aircraft to roll off the production line in Everett, Washington.


“.....Atlas Air began operations 28 years ago with a single 747 and it is fitting that they should receive the last 747 production airplanes...” said Stan Deal, president and chief executive officer of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:36 pm

Great news! I see these birds in CVG all the time and they certainly have a “wow” factor with how long they are. Was hoping Kalitta would pick some up, but they appear to be all in on the 777F for their new build needs.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:41 pm

bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?


The airplanes are optimized a little differently. The 777 is great for long haul flying. It isn’t the best for multi-stop itineraries.

The 747 is more flexible on cargo loading and has more payload. For example in the freight world it is still common for a freighter to go from a hub like CVG to ANC then NRT then ICN then PEK then HKG and back to CVG via ANC. The 747 does these routes well as it is very flexible when it comes to payload. The 747-8F has a higher max landing weight, which is useful on short hops. 777 engine maintenance costs get very expensive when doing short haul hops.

Image

Image

Source https://www.atlasair.com/cargo-services ... rgo-fleet/
 
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:45 pm

With Volga-Dnepr cancelling their final three 747-8F and UPS cancelling one of their 747-8F orders to take a Volga-Dnepr NTU, this left Boeing with four 747-8F production slots and components available so this order takes care of those four frames, which is why Boeing noted they are the last 747-8F as the major component suppliers have all stopped production and wound down their facilities so it is not possible to build any more 747-8 airframes.*

* - The cost to restart production is too high for anyone to commission it.
 
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:49 pm

Given that 3D-printing is becoming more and more important, would it be possible to make the parts where tooling has now been scrapped that way, using composites for example (still likely requiring re-certification)?
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:53 pm

stratable wrote:
Given that 3D-printing is becoming more and more important, would it be possible to make the parts where tooling has now been scrapped that way, using composites for example (still likely requiring re-certification)?


That might end up requiring recertification at the complete airframe level - effectively re-doing the entire certification and testing regimen for the aluminum one.

At that point, might as well just start with an all-new design.
 
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:55 pm

stratable wrote:
Given that 3D-printing is becoming more and more important, would it be possible to make the parts where tooling has now been scrapped that way, using composites for example (still likely requiring re-certification)?


Depends on the part. For some things sure, for this case (fuselage panels) I'm not sure 3d printing of the parts is even possible let alone economical. I use 3d printing every day in my industry but it sure dies have its limitations, especially on the production side.
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:59 pm

Polot wrote:
bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?

Nose door loading, which occasionally comes in handy as Atlas does a lot of charter work.


But AFAIK, nose doors are rarely used - and for missions where they are needed, Atlas already has plenty of nose door equipped 747F. Could it just be that Atlas is currently a major 747 operator and they got these last airframes at a knockdown price - i.e. rather than 747F being particularly better than other aircraft such as 777F?
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:03 pm

m1m2 wrote:
I'm thinking it all comes down to cost. If an airline or cargo company wants enough to make it profitable for Boeing, then they would make it work. As long as Boeing holds the rights to the 747, in theory they could build one at any time, but generally the cost of doing so is prohibitive.

Having said that, it seems unlikely in the current environment that any airline or anyone else would want to spend that amount of money.


The legalities and logistics of re-starting something like Concorde, Saturn V, Space Shuttle, B747, B757 are, I think, impossible in a conventional sense. Only a WWII-style national effort could do things like that, at great cost. There are good alternatives to things like B747 and B757 at good prices available for immediate delivery. Reviving ancient projects would serve nobody except avgeeks.
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:14 pm

VSMUT wrote:
ssteve wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Too late. Production is already shutting down as the final components are being assembled. Many components are already out of production.


...and machinists were fired? Not yet? (Trying hard not to troll, just curious about employment for workers on this program in light of all the covid stuff)


Yep. Triumph Group that made the fuselage panels started auctioning off equipment from its production line in late 2019, and started laying off staff at the start of 2020 (just weeks prior to Coronavirus).

Scheduled shuttering of plant was December 6th of last year, layoffs:
https://labusinessjournal.com/news/2019 ... -lays-250/

Restarting production would be too expensive. This is selling last stock.

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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:17 pm

Spacepope wrote:
stratable wrote:
Given that 3D-printing is becoming more and more important, would it be possible to make the parts where tooling has now been scrapped that way, using composites for example (still likely requiring re-certification)?


Depends on the part. For some things sure, for this case (fuselage panels) I'm not sure 3d printing of the parts is even possible let alone economical. I use 3d printing every day in my industry but it sure dies have its limitations, especially on the production side.

All parts, sub assemblies, and assemblies are certified not only on form, fit and function, but also manufacturing process. For example, adding a weld or going to 3D printing requires re-certifying parts.

That can be done, but is expensive. Going forward, the drive to 3D printed parts is to cut minimum batch quantity to support low production rates or in service fleets.


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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:27 pm

bwvilla wrote:
Polot wrote:
bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?

Nose door loading, which occasionally comes in handy as Atlas does a lot of charter work.


But AFAIK, nose doors are rarely used - and for missions where they are needed, Atlas already has plenty of nose door equipped 747F. Could it just be that Atlas is currently a major 747 operator and they got these last airframes at a knockdown price - i.e. rather than 747F being particularly better than other aircraft such as 777F?


Atlas has seen revenue to up 30% in the last year. Atlas is growing and has the money to buy new planes. Atlas likely expects to fly these planes for 40 years. Given their huge 747 fleet which is aging, getting more 747-8s may fit into their long term strategy. Atlas is the world’s largest 747 operator. I have no doubt that Atlas would have gone for more 777s if the 747 price wasn’t right for their business model. Was this an opportunistic fire sale, or was Boeing leveraging that these will be the last 747s ever built which means these could be the last airplanes in the world flying with nose cargo doors in 40+ years? I don’t think we know if this was based on knockdown prices or not.
 
morrisond
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Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:30 pm

bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?


Isn't the 748F a 137.7 T Freighter vs 102.0T on the 777F?
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2400
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:34 pm

Stitch wrote:
With Volga-Dnepr cancelling their final three 747-8F and UPS cancelling one of their 747-8F orders to take a Volga-Dnepr NTU, this left Boeing with four 747-8F production slots and components available so this order takes care of those four frames, which is why Boeing noted they are the last 747-8F as the major component suppliers have all stopped production and wound down their facilities so it is not possible to build any more 747-8 airframes.*

* - The cost to restart production is too high for anyone to commission it.



This order confirms your prior sleuthing when Triumph was shutting down, then when VD cancelled their orders. You were correct in your counts that yes 4 extra ship sets should be there. Now these are to Atlas.

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