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VSMUT
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:37 pm

frigatebird wrote:
Interestingly Boeing found enough components laying around to assemble 4 more 747-8F's :bigthumbsup: There was one available as UPS took over a Volga Dnjepr 748F NTU, and there were rumors Boeing could assemble 1 or 2 more with the components they still had in stock. Nice to see they actually can build 3 more.


"Found"...

Nobody "finds" enough components to build 3 more aircraft.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:47 pm

VSMUT wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Interestingly Boeing found enough components laying around to assemble 4 more 747-8F's :bigthumbsup: There was one available as UPS took over a Volga Dnjepr 748F NTU, and there were rumors Boeing could assemble 1 or 2 more with the components they still had in stock. Nice to see they actually can build 3 more.


"Found"...

Nobody "finds" enough components to build 3 more aircraft.

My bad, missed the news Volga Dnjepr had cancelled 3 748F. Thanks Stitch for pointing this out.
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cschleic
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:58 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
bwvilla wrote:
Polot wrote:
Nose door loading, which occasionally comes in handy as Atlas does a lot of charter work.


But AFAIK, nose doors are rarely used - and for missions where they are needed, Atlas already has plenty of nose door equipped 747F. Could it just be that Atlas is currently a major 747 operator and they got these last airframes at a knockdown price - i.e. rather than 747F being particularly better than other aircraft such as 777F?


Atlas has seen revenue to up 30% in the last year. Atlas is growing and has the money to buy new planes. Atlas likely expects to fly these planes for 40 years. Given their huge 747 fleet which is aging, getting more 747-8s may fit into their long term strategy. Atlas is the world’s largest 747 operator. I have no doubt that Atlas would have gone for more 777s if the 747 price wasn’t right for their business model. Was this an opportunistic fire sale, or was Boeing leveraging that these will be the last 747s ever built which means these could be the last airplanes in the world flying with nose cargo doors in 40+ years? I don’t think we know if this was based on knockdown prices or not.


Probably lots of reasons....maybe pricing, fleet fit, outsize cargo capability, may have multi-loading capabilities, mission and aircraft cost differences described above. In any case, Boeing did sell a bunch of them so they work for several cargo carriers. For example, in some cases, isn't UPS more interested in volume rather than weight?
 
amdiesen
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:05 pm

morrisond wrote:
bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?


Isn't the 748F a 137.7 T Freighter vs 102.0T on the 777F?


This is what I have and the data is a mosaic from multiple sources; however it should be noted that accuracy at the micro level is disconcerting/incomplete.
cap.volume(m3), 858, 650
cap.mass(mt), 139, 103
cap.range(km), 7630, 9000
wingspan(m), 68.4, 64.8

smart move by Atlas; they have four b774*cf's with an average age of ~27.5yrs
further they are a more likely candidate for the genx powered b764f; providing fleet symbiosis
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
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ssteve
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:27 pm

VSMUT wrote:
"Found"...

Nobody "finds" enough components to build 3 more aircraft.


There go my An-225 plans. Sigh.
 
PennPal
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:28 pm

Long live the Queen!!
 
Sooner787
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:38 pm

frigatebird wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
ssteve wrote:

...and machinists were fired? Not yet? (Trying hard not to troll, just curious about employment for workers on this program in light of all the covid stuff)


Yep. Triumph Group that made the fuselage panels started auctioning off equipment from its production line in late 2019, and started laying off staff at the start of 2020 (just weeks prior to Coronavirus).


Interestingly Boeing found enough components laying around to assemble 4 more 747-8F's :bigthumbsup: There was one available as UPS took over a Volga Dnjepr 748F NTU, and there were rumors Boeing could assemble 1 or 2 more with the components they still had in stock. Nice to see they actually can build 3 more.

As for restarting production beyond this order, apparently Boeing hardly made money (if any) with the 747-8's they sold bottom line. So with new suppliers and additional cost involved, the price tag of any 747-8 produced for new orders wouldn't be commercially viable IMO.

I wonder if the 2nd 747-8i produced (LH NTU), now catching dust in the desert, could be converted to a 747-8F? I mean a real one, without stretched upper deck. The other way around certainly was possible, KLM did so with some of their 747-200s in addition to their 747-300 order decades ago.


Atlas has a pretty big pax charter business , I'm wondering if Boeing offered that NTU 748I as part of the deal just to get rid of it ?
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:42 pm

Just for fun, here is the status of the existing B748 fleet prior to this announcement:

https://www.planespotters.net/operators ... /747/747-8

Note that most of the B748i (passenger) fleet is currently parked, while almost all of the B748F's are active. Also note that Atlas currently directly owns 4 B748F's, while 6 (former?) Atlas B748F's are operated by sister company, Polar Air Cargo for DHL.
 
bigb
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:49 pm

amdiesen wrote:
morrisond wrote:
bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?


Isn't the 748F a 137.7 T Freighter vs 102.0T on the 777F?


This is what I have and the data is a mosaic from multiple sources; however it should be noted that accuracy at the micro level is disconcerting/incomplete.
cap.volume(m3), 858, 650
cap.mass(mt), 139, 103
cap.range(km), 7630, 9000
wingspan(m), 68.4, 64.8

smart move by Atlas; they have four b774*cf's with an average age of ~27.5yrs
further they are a more likely candidate for the genx powered b764f; providing fleet symbiosis



MTOW for the 747-8F is 447,695 KG/986,998 LBS
MLW for the 747-8F is 346,090 KG/762,997 LBS
MZFW for the 747-8F 329,761 KG/726,998 LBS
 
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Revelation
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:50 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
m1m2 wrote:
I'm thinking it all comes down to cost. If an airline or cargo company wants enough to make it profitable for Boeing, then they would make it work. As long as Boeing holds the rights to the 747, in theory they could build one at any time, but generally the cost of doing so is prohibitive.

Having said that, it seems unlikely in the current environment that any airline or anyone else would want to spend that amount of money.

The legalities and logistics of re-starting something like Concorde, Saturn V, Space Shuttle, B747, B757 are, I think, impossible in a conventional sense. Only a WWII-style national effort could do things like that, at great cost. There are good alternatives to things like B747 and B757 at good prices available for immediate delivery. Reviving ancient projects would serve nobody except avgeeks.

Lockheed restarted U2 production in the Reagan era after it had been shut down since the Eisenhower era, so we have at least one counter point. I also think more C5s were produced after the line was mothballed in the 60s or early 70s. I know Reagan's military buildup was big, but I would not equate it to the really unprecedented WWII national effort. We've seen nothing like that before or since, and I lived through the Vietnam era where all kinds of military aircraft were being produced at crazy high rates. That was keeping a lot of my friends and relatives busy at Sikorsky, Pratt, Avco-Lycoming, etc.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Atlas has seen revenue to up 30% in the last year. Atlas is growing and has the money to buy new planes. Atlas likely expects to fly these planes for 40 years. Given their huge 747 fleet which is aging, getting more 747-8s may fit into their long term strategy. Atlas is the world’s largest 747 operator. I have no doubt that Atlas would have gone for more 777s if the 747 price wasn’t right for their business model. Was this an opportunistic fire sale, or was Boeing leveraging that these will be the last 747s ever built which means these could be the last airplanes in the world flying with nose cargo doors in 40+ years? I don’t think we know if this was based on knockdown prices or not.

To me the bottom line is Boeing would not take the business if there was no profit in it for them, same for GE. The line has no future so there is no incentive to keep it open if it is not profitable. They must have done the numbers and decided the live cycle revenue for the four aircraft including the purchase price exceeds the cost of production. Scrapping isn't free either, but is a lot less costly than assembling and testing the aircraft, and now would be a good time to take writeoffs since their numbers are in the crapper anyway.
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SEPilot
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:21 pm

bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.

It will be difficult to build any more. There are no more fuselages, and the line building them has closed.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:29 pm

SEPilot wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.

It will be difficult to build any more. There are no more fuselages, and the line building them has closed.


My recollection of a conversation I had last summer with my friend at Boeing was that it would take essentially an order for about 30 more 747-8's to be worthwhile to restart production (the numbers could vary a bit based on sale price). The industry airlines that uses large cargo aircraft were informed of that - and the industry collectively were not willing to commit to anything close to those numbers. So these will be the last 4 748F's produced using major parts that have already been fabricated; and the 747 production will end after a long and glorious history.

I suspect that there will be 748F's flying for another 50 years (not many after 30 years - but, some).

Have a great day,
 
travaz
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:39 pm

IMHO these were priced to sell. Atlas is known to stretch a nickel pretty far. (Attributed to Wjcandee)
 
CoThG
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:01 pm

This announcement will aggravate the Atlas pilots greatly. They want a pay raise in addition to other contract improvements across the board. They will claim that if Atlas has enough money to buy new 747s, they have enough money to give them what they demand in a new contract.

This will further deteriorate the labor relations at Atlas, which are already abysmal.
 
UPS Pilot
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:06 pm

Hypothetical situation. 767's and 777's became the standard for long haul freighters. I believe most if not all are GE powered. What happens if GE start having issues or there is an airframe loss that restricts ETOPS requirements? The 747 is going away and the MD-11 is gone. That would severely impact global logistics if it happened.
 
Luftymatt
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:15 pm

Spacepope wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


With the fuselage production shut down and tooling disassembled, I’d be fascinated to hear your future order predictions.


Talk about being condescending. It's not an unreasonable thing to say, with cargo increasing massively.

How would Boeing build four new 747-8's for Atlas, if the fuselage production has already been shut down then?? I'd love to hear your predictions on that.
chase the sun
 
CoThG
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:32 pm

UPS Pilot wrote:
Hypothetical situation. 767's and 777's became the standard for long haul freighters. I believe most if not all are GE powered. What happens if GE start having issues or there is an airframe loss that restricts ETOPS requirements? The 747 is going away and the MD-11 is gone. That would severely impact global logistics if it happened.


ETOPS=Engines Turn Or Packages Sink
 
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ssteve
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:35 pm

Luftymatt wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


With the fuselage production shut down and tooling disassembled, I’d be fascinated to hear your future order predictions.


Talk about being condescending. It's not an unreasonable thing to say, with cargo increasing massively.

How would Boeing build four new 747-8's for Atlas, if the fuselage production has already been shut down then?? I'd love to hear your predictions on that.


It is tempting to be condescending responding to this, but, as mentioned upthread there were 4 shipsets / fuselage parts / whatever available. Atlas took all 4. There's nothing more to sell.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:39 pm

Luftymatt wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


With the fuselage production shut down and tooling disassembled, I’d be fascinated to hear your future order predictions.


Talk about being condescending. It's not an unreasonable thing to say, with cargo increasing massively.

How would Boeing build four new 747-8's for Atlas, if the fuselage production has already been shut down then?? I'd love to hear your predictions on that.


These fuselage panels were already produced (like how Spirit makes 737 fuselages) and are ready for final assembly. They were shipped prior to the fuselage panel production line shutting down and getting sold off.

You do realize parts of aircraft are made well in advance, don't you?
The last of the famous international playboys
 
RalXWB
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:40 pm

Luftymatt wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
bigb wrote:
I don’t think this is the last order for the 747 is my gut feeling.


With the fuselage production shut down and tooling disassembled, I’d be fascinated to hear your future order predictions.


Talk about being condescending. It's not an unreasonable thing to say, with cargo increasing massively.

How would Boeing build four new 747-8's for Atlas, if the fuselage production has already been shut down then?? I'd love to hear your predictions on that.


Before this myth gets repeated. Boeing has 4 ship sets left, 3x NTU of Volga and 1 X NTU of UPS thus they will build these last 4 for Atlas. And yes parts production did shut down...
 
Antarius
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:52 pm

CoThG wrote:
This announcement will aggravate the Atlas pilots greatly. They want a pay raise in addition to other contract improvements across the board. They will claim that if Atlas has enough money to buy new 747s, they have enough money to give them what they demand in a new contract.

This will further deteriorate the labor relations at Atlas, which are already abysmal.


With pilots suddenly available everywhere, there isn't much leverage. COVID has upended the scarcity problem.
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
mxaxai
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
Lockheed restarted U2 production in the Reagan era after it had been shut down since the Eisenhower era, so we have at least one counter point. I also think more C5s were produced after the line was mothballed in the 60s or early 70s.

The difference here is that the US government pays for the storage of equipment precisely for the ability to restart production later on. I'm not sure about the 747-8 tooling but the tooling for the other mentioned aircraft or launch vehicles was scrapped long ago. In some cases, e. g. the Saturn V, a few of the old blueprints are missing. The Concorde's type certificate was withdrawn so you'd have to go through the entire certification process again.

Another point to keep in mind is that the (US) government will pay extra to maintain certain capabilities. The U-2, for example, served a unique reconaissance role that couldn't be covered by other models produced at the time, and the mothballed tooling made it relatively cheap to restart production.

Airlines don't care about that. All that matters is the cost to transport a certain amount of cargo from A to B. If Boeing charges too much for the 747, airlines will happily switch to a different model.
 
xjetflyer2001
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:10 pm

Antarius wrote:
CoThG wrote:
This announcement will aggravate the Atlas pilots greatly. They want a pay raise in addition to other contract improvements across the board. They will claim that if Atlas has enough money to buy new 747s, they have enough money to give them what they demand in a new contract.

This will further deteriorate the labor relations at Atlas, which are already abysmal.


With pilots suddenly available everywhere, there isn't much leverage. COVID has upended the scarcity problem.


I thought Volga wanted those last 3 747-8 they ordered??
 
N965UW
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:25 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
bwvilla wrote:
Polot wrote:
Nose door loading, which occasionally comes in handy as Atlas does a lot of charter work.


But AFAIK, nose doors are rarely used - and for missions where they are needed, Atlas already has plenty of nose door equipped 747F. Could it just be that Atlas is currently a major 747 operator and they got these last airframes at a knockdown price - i.e. rather than 747F being particularly better than other aircraft such as 777F?


Atlas has seen revenue to up 30% in the last year. Atlas is growing and has the money to buy new planes. Atlas likely expects to fly these planes for 40 years. Given their huge 747 fleet which is aging, getting more 747-8s may fit into their long term strategy. Atlas is the world’s largest 747 operator. I have no doubt that Atlas would have gone for more 777s if the 747 price wasn’t right for their business model. Was this an opportunistic fire sale, or was Boeing leveraging that these will be the last 747s ever built which means these could be the last airplanes in the world flying with nose cargo doors in 40+ years? I don’t think we know if this was based on knockdown prices or not.


I'm curious as to whether there will be enough parts to keep the -8 going for 40 more years. The engines will be taken care of due to the 787, but are there life-limited airframe parts unique to the -8? -8 operators are likely to fly them until the wings fall off, so there won't be a large 744-style parts market. Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but will Boeing continue producing parts or are there enough in existence for the foreseeable future?

I always thought Atlas' initial order for 10 -8s was too small compared to the amount of 744s they operate. Great to see them getting more.
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jreeves96
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:42 pm

Me has a feeling that once these are delivered, the 2 BCFs and 2 BDSF will finally hit retirement.. for like the third time.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:56 pm

xjetflyer2001 wrote:
I thought Volga wanted those last 3 747-8 they ordered??


Well they either should not have formally cancelled them or they should have worked harder than Atlas to secure financing to re-purchase them.
 
m1m2
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:16 pm

"Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but will Boeing continue producing parts or are there enough in existence for the foreseeable future?"

I would think there is a legal requirement for Boeing to support their fleet for a certain timeframe. There is a warranty period (probably 5 years) on a new airframe to start with.
 
Antarius
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:23 pm

m1m2 wrote:
"Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but will Boeing continue producing parts or are there enough in existence for the foreseeable future?"

I would think there is a legal requirement for Boeing to support their fleet for a certain timeframe. There is a warranty period (probably 5 years) on a new airframe to start with.


Additionally, it isn't like all part production will stop. Just major parts like fuselage panels and wings etc. that are part of building a new aircraft. Replaceable or interchangeable parts will continue to be produced.
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hOMSaR
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:25 pm

UPS Pilot wrote:
Hypothetical situation. 767's and 777's became the standard for long haul freighters. I believe most if not all are GE powered. What happens if GE start having issues or there is an airframe loss that restricts ETOPS requirements? The 747 is going away and the MD-11 is gone. That would severely impact global logistics if it happened.


Given that GE-powered 767s have been flying for nearly four decades, and the GE90-115 on the 777 has been flying for over 15 years, if there was some fundamental design problem that would seriously affect the safety of these engines, odds are it would have surfaced by now.
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
bunumuring
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:52 pm

Hey guys,
Two points...
Could this be the last-ever civilian order for a quad-jet? I am sure that there will be four engine electric-powered passenger planes in the future but... (military aircraft excluded of course)
Could Atlas please please please paint one the 747-8Fs into the Qantas Freight scheme? It would be so good to see a Qantas-liveried 747 operating out of Sydney again! (for those that don’t realise, Atlas currently dedicated a couple of 747s to QF service with small titles on the forward fuselage)
Cheers
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
Qantas744er
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:38 pm

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,
Two points...
Could this be the last-ever civilian order for a quad-jet? I am sure that there will be four engine electric-powered passenger planes in the future but... (military aircraft excluded of course)
Could Atlas please please please paint one the 747-8Fs into the Qantas Freight scheme? It would be so good to see a Qantas-liveried 747 operating out of Sydney again! (for those that don’t realise, Atlas currently dedicated a couple of 747s to QF service with small titles on the forward fuselage)
Cheers
Bunumuring


You’ll need to petition Qantas for that to happen.

Atlas will paint their aircraft in any livery the customer chooses. As long as they pay for it or course ;)
You live and you die, by the FMA
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:42 pm

N965UW wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
bwvilla wrote:

But AFAIK, nose doors are rarely used - and for missions where they are needed, Atlas already has plenty of nose door equipped 747F. Could it just be that Atlas is currently a major 747 operator and they got these last airframes at a knockdown price - i.e. rather than 747F being particularly better than other aircraft such as 777F?


Atlas has seen revenue to up 30% in the last year. Atlas is growing and has the money to buy new planes. Atlas likely expects to fly these planes for 40 years. Given their huge 747 fleet which is aging, getting more 747-8s may fit into their long term strategy. Atlas is the world’s largest 747 operator. I have no doubt that Atlas would have gone for more 777s if the 747 price wasn’t right for their business model. Was this an opportunistic fire sale, or was Boeing leveraging that these will be the last 747s ever built which means these could be the last airplanes in the world flying with nose cargo doors in 40+ years? I don’t think we know if this was based on knockdown prices or not.


I'm curious as to whether there will be enough parts to keep the -8 going for 40 more years. The engines will be taken care of due to the 787, but are there life-limited airframe parts unique to the -8? -8 operators are likely to fly them until the wings fall off, so there won't be a large 744-style parts market. Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but will Boeing continue producing parts or are there enough in existence for the foreseeable future?

I always thought Atlas' initial order for 10 -8s was too small compared to the amount of 744s they operate. Great to see them getting more.


Spare Parts will still be built. Airplanes like the MD11, 757, 717, etc haven’t been built for 15 + years, but spare parts continue to get built. From time to time there can be long lead times associated with significant structure repairs.
 
CX747
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Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:42 pm

jreeves96 wrote:
Me has a feeling that once these are delivered, the 2 BCFs and 2 BDSF will finally hit retirement.. for like the third time.


Article states the new 747-8Fs are potentially earmarked to replace older 747s whose leases are set to expire. I don't think that lines up with the 4 aircraft you mentioned! Frustrating to think that 4 747-400F factory built jets, may go by the wayside, and get replaced by the 747-8Fs and the BCF and BDSFs remain!!!
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:04 pm

Revelation wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
m1m2 wrote:
I'm thinking it all comes down to cost. If an airline or cargo company wants enough to make it profitable for Boeing, then they would make it work. As long as Boeing holds the rights to the 747, in theory they could build one at any time, but generally the cost of doing so is prohibitive.

Having said that, it seems unlikely in the current environment that any airline or anyone else would want to spend that amount of money.

The legalities and logistics of re-starting something like Concorde, Saturn V, Space Shuttle, B747, B757 are, I think, impossible in a conventional sense. Only a WWII-style national effort could do things like that, at great cost. There are good alternatives to things like B747 and B757 at good prices available for immediate delivery. Reviving ancient projects would serve nobody except avgeeks.

Lockheed restarted U2 production in the Reagan era after it had been shut down since the Eisenhower era, so we have at least one counter point. I also think more C5s were produced after the line was mothballed in the 60s or early 70s. I know Reagan's military buildup was big, but I would not equate it to the really unprecedented WWII national effort. We've seen nothing like that before or since, and I lived through the Vietnam era where all kinds of military aircraft were being produced at crazy high rates. That was keeping a lot of my friends and relatives busy at Sikorsky, Pratt, Avco-Lycoming, etc.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Atlas has seen revenue to up 30% in the last year. Atlas is growing and has the money to buy new planes. Atlas likely expects to fly these planes for 40 years. Given their huge 747 fleet which is aging, getting more 747-8s may fit into their long term strategy. Atlas is the world’s largest 747 operator. I have no doubt that Atlas would have gone for more 777s if the 747 price wasn’t right for their business model. Was this an opportunistic fire sale, or was Boeing leveraging that these will be the last 747s ever built which means these could be the last airplanes in the world flying with nose cargo doors in 40+ years? I don’t think we know if this was based on knockdown prices or not.

To me the bottom line is Boeing would not take the business if there was no profit in it for them, same for GE. The line has no future so there is no incentive to keep it open if it is not profitable. They must have done the numbers and decided the live cycle revenue for the four aircraft including the purchase price exceeds the cost of production. Scrapping isn't free either, but is a lot less costly than assembling and testing the aircraft, and now would be a good time to take writeoffs since their numbers are in the crapper anyway.


The U-2 and C-5 are two examples of aircraft whose production was restarted after being shut down for some time.

As others stated, those aircraft's revival was paid for by Uncle Sam. Not sure private airlines would have the dough to bring back from the dead in the same manner.

The 747 is an incredible aircraft. 4 more of which will be produced for Atlas. At this time, all info lays to this being the last order for the 747. Congratulations to Boeing and Atlas!!!!
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
jreeves96
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:05 am

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:48 pm

CX747 wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
Me has a feeling that once these are delivered, the 2 BCFs and 2 BDSF will finally hit retirement.. for like the third time.


Article states the new 747-8Fs are potentially earmarked to replace older 747s whose leases are set to expire. I don't think that lines up with the 4 aircraft you mentioned! Frustrating to think that 4 747-400F factory built jets, may go by the wayside, and get replaced by the 747-8Fs and the BCF and BDSFs remain!!!


Just wishful thinking on my part. Would like to see the new airplanes go to the DHL side and then the Polar 400s go to the Atlas side.
 
UPS Pilot
Posts: 896
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 1:17 pm

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:06 am

hOMSaR wrote:
UPS Pilot wrote:
Hypothetical situation. 767's and 777's became the standard for long haul freighters. I believe most if not all are GE powered. What happens if GE start having issues or there is an airframe loss that restricts ETOPS requirements? The 747 is going away and the MD-11 is gone. That would severely impact global logistics if it happened.


Given that GE-powered 767s have been flying for nearly four decades, and the GE90-115 on the 777 has been flying for over 15 years, if there was some fundamental design problem that would seriously affect the safety of these engines, odds are it would have surfaced by now.


There have been issues. I was one of the first to fly the 767-300PF in 1996.
Last edited by UPS Pilot on Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Antarius
Posts: 3142
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:16 am

UPS Pilot wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
UPS Pilot wrote:
Hypothetical situation. 767's and 777's became the standard for long haul freighters. I believe most if not all are GE powered. What happens if GE start having issues or there is an airframe loss that restricts ETOPS requirements? The 747 is going away and the MD-11 is gone. That would severely impact global logistics if it happened.


Given that GE-powered 767s have been flying for nearly four decades, and the GE90-115 on the 777 has been flying for over 15 years, if there was some fundamental design problem that would seriously affect the safety of these engines, odds are it would have surfaced by now.


There have been issues. I was one of the first to fly the 767-300PF in 1994.


I'm sure there have. Every aircraft and engine has had some issue in its lifetime.

However, the odds of all GE engines suddenly not being ETOPS worthy is zero.
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 674
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:11 am

CX747 wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
Me has a feeling that once these are delivered, the 2 BCFs and 2 BDSF will finally hit retirement.. for like the third time.


Article states the new 747-8Fs are potentially earmarked to replace older 747s whose leases are set to expire. I don't think that lines up with the 4 aircraft you mentioned! Frustrating to think that 4 747-400F factory built jets, may go by the wayside, and get replaced by the 747-8Fs and the BCF and BDSFs remain!!!


It would be strange to keep converted freighters and scrap factory built 747-400 freighters. The purpose built freighters have better payload numbers and also have more cargo volume too.
 
CX747
Posts: 6516
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:37 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
CX747 wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
Me has a feeling that once these are delivered, the 2 BCFs and 2 BDSF will finally hit retirement.. for like the third time.


Article states the new 747-8Fs are potentially earmarked to replace older 747s whose leases are set to expire. I don't think that lines up with the 4 aircraft you mentioned! Frustrating to think that 4 747-400F factory built jets, may go by the wayside, and get replaced by the 747-8Fs and the BCF and BDSFs remain!!!


It would be strange to keep converted freighters and scrap factory built 747-400 freighters. The purpose built freighters have better payload numbers and also have more cargo volume too.


From a capability standpoint you are spot on.

A 747-400F Factory freighter is a better long term investment. What aircraft are owned and which ones are leased will drive the train to a certain point. If you own the 747-400BCF/BDSF, then their cost per month is less than a leased factory made 747-400F. 747Fs are worth their weight in gold and their new Wuhu-19 lease price could have grown exponentially for when they drop off the current contract. That could lead to the scenario of returning the leased 747 and replacing it with newly purchased 747s.

Time will tell on which jets go and which jets stay. Atlas in the end could continue leasing the current 747-400Fs and using them for growth when the 747-8Fs show up.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
CX747
Posts: 6516
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:38 am

jreeves96 wrote:
CX747 wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
Me has a feeling that once these are delivered, the 2 BCFs and 2 BDSF will finally hit retirement.. for like the third time.


Article states the new 747-8Fs are potentially earmarked to replace older 747s whose leases are set to expire. I don't think that lines up with the 4 aircraft you mentioned! Frustrating to think that 4 747-400F factory built jets, may go by the wayside, and get replaced by the 747-8Fs and the BCF and BDSFs remain!!!


Just wishful thinking on my part. Would like to see the new airplanes go to the DHL side and then the Polar 400s go to the Atlas side.


I'm curious, what makes you have that desire?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
amdiesen
Posts: 176
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:15 am

CX747 wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
CX747 wrote:
Article states the new 747-8Fs are potentially earmarked to replace older 747s whose leases are set to expire. I don't think that lines up with the 4 aircraft you mentioned! Frustrating to think that 4 747-400F factory built jets, may go by the wayside, and get replaced by the 747-8Fs and the BCF and BDSFs remain!!!


It would be strange to keep converted freighters and scrap factory built 747-400 freighters. The purpose built freighters have better payload numbers and also have more cargo volume too.


From a capability standpoint you are spot on.

A 747-400F Factory freighter is a better long term investment. What aircraft are owned and which ones are leased will drive the train to a certain point. If you own the 747-400BCF/BDSF, then their cost per month is less than a leased factory made 747-400F. 747Fs are worth their weight in gold and their new Wuhu-19 lease price could have grown exponentially for when they drop off the current contract. That could lead to the scenario of returning the leased 747 and replacing it with newly purchased 747s.

Time will tell on which jets go and which jets stay. Atlas in the end could continue leasing the current 747-400Fs and using them for growth when the 747-8Fs show up.


supplementing your interpretation, the marketing text reads "up for renewal" & "flexibility"
"The new 747-8F order will also provide the company with enhanced flexibility to balance future capacity needs with customer demand, as a number of its legacy 747-400F aircraft leases will be up for renewal over the next several years."
...one could interpret this to mean: 'With this order, Atlas will be in an improved position of strength when renegotiating near term leases'
for our talented Atlas colleague, one might consul that at the next heavy maintenance the economics will likely favor the harvesting of parts and green time engines (aged conversions)

This order also suggests that Atlas is a potential counter-party for the two parked Saudia B748Fs
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
User avatar
FLALEFTY
Posts: 877
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:38 am

amdiesen wrote:
CX747 wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:

It would be strange to keep converted freighters and scrap factory built 747-400 freighters. The purpose built freighters have better payload numbers and also have more cargo volume too.


From a capability standpoint you are spot on.

A 747-400F Factory freighter is a better long term investment. What aircraft are owned and which ones are leased will drive the train to a certain point. If you own the 747-400BCF/BDSF, then their cost per month is less than a leased factory made 747-400F. 747Fs are worth their weight in gold and their new Wuhu-19 lease price could have grown exponentially for when they drop off the current contract. That could lead to the scenario of returning the leased 747 and replacing it with newly purchased 747s.

Time will tell on which jets go and which jets stay. Atlas in the end could continue leasing the current 747-400Fs and using them for growth when the 747-8Fs show up.


supplementing your interpretation, the marketing text reads "up for renewal" & "flexibility"
"The new 747-8F order will also provide the company with enhanced flexibility to balance future capacity needs with customer demand, as a number of its legacy 747-400F aircraft leases will be up for renewal over the next several years."
...one could interpret this to mean: 'With this order, Atlas will be in an improved position of strength when renegotiating near term leases'
for our talented Atlas colleague, one might consul that at the next heavy maintenance the economics will likely favor the harvesting of parts and green time engines (aged conversions)

This order also suggests that Atlas is a potential counter-party for the two parked Saudia B748Fs


The two Saudia B748F's were originally intended for Atlas, were NTU and then obtained by Saudia. See the attached links:

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... nes/ey6kdo

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... nes/e967w8
 
jreeves96
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:05 am

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:18 am

CX747 wrote:
jreeves96 wrote:
CX747 wrote:

Article states the new 747-8Fs are potentially earmarked to replace older 747s whose leases are set to expire. I don't think that lines up with the 4 aircraft you mentioned! Frustrating to think that 4 747-400F factory built jets, may go by the wayside, and get replaced by the 747-8Fs and the BCF and BDSFs remain!!!


Just wishful thinking on my part. Would like to see the new airplanes go to the DHL side and then the Polar 400s go to the Atlas side.


I'm curious, what makes you have that desire?


Well I've worked on all four of BCFs and BDSFs and I'm not a fan. I like the factory freighters more.

If you mean the Polar going Atlas, that just makes more sense to me. Give Polar/DHL the brand new shiny -8s and give the older -400s to the charter side.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 10019
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:47 am

ILNFlyer wrote:
So Atlas is taking the last birds off the line. Sweet. I thought it was going to be UPS.


UPS's new CEO bragged about having turned them down.
 
User avatar
NWAROOSTER
Posts: 1374
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:52 am

NWAROOSTER wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
amdiesen wrote:

supplementing your interpretation, the marketing text reads "up for renewal" & "flexibility"
"The new 747-8F order will also provide the company with enhanced flexibility to balance future capacity needs with customer demand, as a number of its legacy 747-400F aircraft leases will be up for renewal over the next several years."
...one could interpret this to mean: 'With this order, Atlas will be in an improved position of strength when renegotiating near term leases'
for our talented Atlas colleague, one might consul that at the next heavy maintenance the economics will likely favor the harvesting of parts and green time engines (aged conversions)

This order also suggests that Atlas is a potential counter-party for the two parked Saudia B748Fs


The two Saudia B748F's were originally intended for Atlas, were NTU and then obtained by Saudia. See the attached links:

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... nes/ey6kdo

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... nes/e967w8


The two Saudi 747-8F aircraft have be in storage since January, 2020. The question is, does Saudi intend to reactivate them or are they considering selling them. They were put into storage before the Corona Virus became a problem. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
2175301
Posts: 1989
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Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:02 am

wjcandee wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
So Atlas is taking the last birds off the line. Sweet. I thought it was going to be UPS.


UPS's new CEO bragged about having turned them down.


Not exactly. My recollection is that their CEO did say that they did not need more 748F aircraft to cover their expected cargo operations for the foreseeable future. That UPS was reassessing where they needed to focus on growth and future replacements, and it was in the smaller aircraft segments.

Have a great day,
 
Sancho99504
Posts: 724
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:44 pm

Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:20 am

bwvilla wrote:
Polot wrote:
bwvilla wrote:
Really, what is the advantage of the 747-8F over the 777F? 10 tonnes or so extra capacity but at what extra cost?

Nose door loading, which occasionally comes in handy as Atlas does a lot of charter work.


But AFAIK, nose doors are rarely used - and for missions where they are needed, Atlas already has plenty of nose door equipped 747F. Could it just be that Atlas is currently a major 747 operator and they got these last airframes at a knockdown price - i.e. rather than 747F being particularly better than other aircraft such as 777F?



Cargolux does nose operations frequently. When I used to work at ORD, 6 flights a week, 6 flights required a nose operation.
CV ships the outsized cargo that nobody else will touch.
One time, they brought in 2 cranes in order for us to move two hydroelectric generator turbine blade halves. One crane to help the loader lift, the other to help move each piece into position.

We did CI everyday and did a nose op 3-4x a week. I see the nose on SQ open every time I see one in SEA.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2399
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Atlas Air Purchases Four Boeing 747-8 Freighters

Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:23 am

This article in CNET indicated that Atlas bought the planes for $149M each. Does that seem realistic? If so maybe Atlas was always in the market for them, but not at the price Boeing was offering. Time to clean house, or possibly the number is off.

https://www.cnet.com/news/boeing-receiv ... -airliner/
 
iAmAlaska49
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:06 am

Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:13 am

Sancho99504 wrote:
bwvilla wrote:
Polot wrote:
Nose door loading, which occasionally comes in handy as Atlas does a lot of charter work.


But AFAIK, nose doors are rarely used - and for missions where they are needed, Atlas already has plenty of nose door equipped 747F. Could it just be that Atlas is currently a major 747 operator and they got these last airframes at a knockdown price - i.e. rather than 747F being particularly better than other aircraft such as 777F?



Cargolux does nose operations frequently. When I used to work at ORD, 6 flights a week, 6 flights required a nose operation.
CV ships the outsized cargo that nobody else will touch.
One time, they brought in 2 cranes in order for us to move two hydroelectric generator turbine blade halves. One crane to help the loader lift, the other to help move each piece into position.

We did CI everyday and did a nose op 3-4x a week. I see the nose on SQ open every time I see one in SEA.

I follow a CX 747 captain on Instagram and he provides lots of footage of their operations over there and they seem to use the nose operations quite often too.
 
kaitak
Posts: 9999
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

Re: Atlas 747-8i orders more 747-8F

Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:24 am

wjcandee wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
So Atlas is taking the last birds off the line. Sweet. I thought it was going to be UPS.


UPS's new CEO bragged about having turned them down.


And ruined my little joke.

I was going to say that the 747 had its ups and downs over the years, but at least it was going to end with some ups.

Thanks Atlas!

;-)

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