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Gemuser
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QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:43 am

Alan Joyce just announced that QF expected to order A350 for Project Sunrise in 2021

Link: https://australianaviation.com.au/?p=89 ... 152eb58e1c

Gemuser
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:39 am

Great to hear.

What'll be even better, is when we get more finite info on what (if anything) Airbus will be doing with the A35K (other than the previously-announced MTOW boost) to hit the range, performance, and efficiency targets that won them selection for this route.
 
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zeke
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:53 am

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a sunrise+ order with some additional A350s as 744/A380 replacements. Their 787/A330 fleet is not big enough to cover everything else.
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:54 am

Thanks for sharing. Sadly, it seems to me that this makes the return of the A380 even less likely as the premium traffic will likely go for the non-stops making the 380 harder to fill at the front end. If they order this year, they may arrive around the time they had proposed de-mothballing the 380s.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:06 am

zeke wrote:
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a sunrise+ order with some additional A350s as 744/A380 replacements. Their 787/A330 fleet is not big enough to cover everything else.


Kiwiandrew wrote:
Thanks for sharing. Sadly, it seems to me that this makes the return of the A380 even less likely as the premium traffic will likely go for the non-stops making the 380 harder to fill at the front end. If they order this year, they may arrive around the time they had proposed de-mothballing the 380s.


I think the A380s will return in the interim once traffic returns to normal. They will still be needed on transpacific and London services.

Once A350-1000s start being delivered - and we don't know when that might be - it will change things completely. Passengers flying direct to London, Paris and New York - as well as others - should reduce the need for such major capacity at hubs like London and Los Angeles.

However, the A380 will be needed through to about the 2028-2030 period in my opinion and Qantas fleet depreciation usually goes over a 20 year period as well. Pulling them sooner will result in a write down.
 
crazyjaydawg
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:14 am

Gemuser wrote:
Alan Joyce just announced that QF expected to order A350 for Project Sunrise in 2021

Link: https://australianaviation.com.au/?p=89 ... 152eb58e1c

Gemuser

I didn’t see anywhere in the article that he said the order was coming in 2021.

In fact it quoted him as saying “we will revisit [project sunrise] at the end of 2021.”

I think that’s what any prudent airline CEO would say right now. There is still way too much uncertainty in well-established routes, much less new route projects.
 
maverick4002
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:27 am

He didnt say anything close to they will be ordering the airplanes this year.
 
jreeves96
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:29 am

I was just thinking about earlier today. Glad to see Qantas choose the A35X. I think the colors are gonna look awesome. Can't wait to see the first one roll out.
 
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zeke
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:37 am

maverick4002 wrote:
He didnt say anything close to they will be ordering the airplanes this year.


Depends on how you classify end of the year and recovery, is 80% considered a recovery, is end of year Dec 31, or is it Q4.

I am in total agreement AJ made no firm time or date in that article that the order will be announced this year, at the same time there was nothing to suggest it has been ruled out this year.

Is the glass half full, or half empty?
 
Opus99
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:46 am

He didn’t confirm anything about ordering any jet other than why they haven’t ordered it.
 
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zeke
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:03 am

Opus99 wrote:
He didn’t confirm anything about ordering any jet other than why they haven’t ordered it.


How can you justify having a large potion of your workforce stood down on no pay and make large capital procurements?
 
ABpositive
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:17 am

ClassicLover wrote:
zeke wrote:
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a sunrise+ order with some additional A350s as 744/A380 replacements. Their 787/A330 fleet is not big enough to cover everything else.


Kiwiandrew wrote:
Thanks for sharing. Sadly, it seems to me that this makes the return of the A380 even less likely as the premium traffic will likely go for the non-stops making the 380 harder to fill at the front end. If they order this year, they may arrive around the time they had proposed de-mothballing the 380s.


I think the A380s will return in the interim once traffic returns to normal. They will still be needed on transpacific and London services.

Once A350-1000s start being delivered - and we don't know when that might be - it will change things completely. Passengers flying direct to London, Paris and New York - as well as others - should reduce the need for such major capacity at hubs like London and Los Angeles.

However, the A380 will be needed through to about the 2028-2030 period in my opinion and Qantas fleet depreciation usually goes over a 20 year period as well. Pulling them sooner will result in a write down.


Will South Africa and potential South America routes still need 4-engines for ETOPS?
 
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zeke
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:20 am

ABpositive wrote:
Will South Africa and potential South America routes still need 4-engines for ETOPS?


I don’t think so
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:18 am

ABpositive wrote:
Will South Africa and potential South America routes still need 4-engines for ETOPS?

Assuming a minimum of ETOPS330 is granted, which modern widebodies have exceeded, then even routes like SYD/MEL-GRU/EZE will be feasible (even on the Great Circle) by twinjets.
 
myki
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:41 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
He didn’t confirm anything about ordering any jet other than why they haven’t ordered it.


How can you justify having a large potion of your workforce stood down on no pay and make large capital procurements?

On the flip side, how can you justify not planning for the future, and in a few years time having VS flying LHR-MEL and AA flying JFK-SYD while QF can only offer a one-stop option?
 
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zeke
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:56 am

myki wrote:
On the flip side, how can you justify not planning for the future, and in a few years time having VS flying LHR-MEL and AA flying JFK-SYD while QF can only offer a one-stop option?


Both VS and AA may not exist by the time Covid recovers.
 
A350OZ
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:32 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
He didn’t confirm anything about ordering any jet other than why they haven’t ordered it.


How can you justify having a large potion of your workforce stood down on no pay and make large capital procurements?


As harsh as this may sound, how could they not keep planning for 2023 and beyond? Also, accounting-wise those are two very different commitments (expenses vs capex) - one would be due now (if they bring back stood-down staff, as you seem to suggest) while cash flow would still be deep in the toilet, while the other would come with cash flow commitments largely in some years' time when things will hopefully look much better (and the new planes can also be borrowed against, I would assume).
 
A350OZ
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:46 am

ClassicLover wrote:
However, the A380 will be needed through to about the 2028-2030 period in my opinion and Qantas fleet depreciation usually goes over a 20 year period as well. Pulling them sooner will result in a write down.


I think I remember* there was a significant impairment taken on the book value of the A380 fleet at the end of the 2019-20 FY. So this may not be too big a consideration anymore.

*Just looking it up in the annual report (https://investor.qantas.com/FormBuilder ... rt-ASX.pdf), as per page 89 they impaired the A380 fleet and took a AUD 1.018 billion hit last FY. Remaining book value of the entire fleet of twelve (including parts, engines, inventory) was AUD 611m at 30 June 2020 (i.e. around AUD 50m per frame).
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:54 am

A350OZ wrote:
I think I remember* there was a significant impairment taken on the book value of the A380 fleet at the end of the 2019-20 FY. So this may not be too big a consideration anymore.

*Just looking it up in the annual report (https://investor.qantas.com/FormBuilder ... rt-ASX.pdf), as per page 89 they impaired the A380 fleet and took a AUD 1.018 billion hit last FY. Remaining book value of the entire fleet of twelve (including parts, engines, inventory) was AUD 611m at 30 June 2020 (i.e. around AUD 50m per frame).


Thanks for checking that out. I did see after I wrote that the value had indeed already been written down.

That means they can pretty much do what they like with the A380, so the airline has quite a lot of flexibility now.
 
Armadillo1
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:05 am

i'm still think heresy that 1 stop flight SYD-gulf-LHR with 787-10 will be cheaper and about the same time.
they can find suitable airport in the gulf - Muscat, etc
 
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zeke
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:26 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
i'm still think heresy that 1 stop flight SYD-gulf-LHR with 787-10 will be cheaper and about the same time.
they can find suitable airport in the gulf - Muscat, etc


787-10 does not have the legs to do SYD-GULF, where would it stop on the way ?
 
jrfspa320
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:32 am

The problem with the ME is there is very little O&D demand between AU and ME, and it essentially becomes a tech stop, unlike SIN / BKK etc
 
Armadillo1
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:39 am

well, Indian airports like Trivandrum must be even cheaper

yes, it must be tech stop, but it compete to non-stop flight with almost same total time.
if you look to connections, Mumbai will be better

upd: gcmap.com propose BLR
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kempegowd ... rt#Runways
 
myki
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:02 am

zeke wrote:
myki wrote:
On the flip side, how can you justify not planning for the future, and in a few years time having VS flying LHR-MEL and AA flying JFK-SYD while QF can only offer a one-stop option?


Both VS and AA may not exist by the time Covid recovers.

... and there may be new players on the market by then too. Who knows. Better to be prepared and have a niche that you can offer to your customers that your competitor can't. For EK that's an onboard bar, for QF that's a one-flight journey. Each to their own. :D
 
RalXWB
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:30 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
i'm still think heresy that 1 stop flight SYD-gulf-LHR with 787-10 will be cheaper and about the same time.
they can find suitable airport in the gulf - Muscat, etc


First of all they did not order the type you mentioned unlike the selection of the 35K for Project Sunrise. Second how can a one stop flight be about the same time as a non-stop flight? And third please provide proof that a one stop flight with a 787-10 would be cheaper than a nonstop flight with the 35K?
 
Armadillo1
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:56 am

RalXWB wrote:
Armadillo1 wrote:
i'm still think heresy that 1 stop flight SYD-gulf-LHR with 787-10 will be cheaper and about the same time.
they can find suitable airport in the gulf - Muscat, etc


First of all they did not order the type you mentioned unlike the selection of the 35K for Project Sunrise. Second how can a one stop flight be about the same time as a non-stop flight? And third please provide proof that a one stop flight with a 787-10 would be cheaper than a nonstop flight with the 35K?

i expected holy crusade)

i dont have a proof. just my thoughts, i think 781 will burn ~100tonns total on SYD-BLR-LHR and 35K about 125+ non-stop
and one leg will be under 10-hours so no extra crew

currently it DXB or HKG with may be little difference, so BLR not really needed

but also question what is actual optimal flight path including winds.
 
VSMUT
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:18 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
Armadillo1 wrote:
i'm still think heresy that 1 stop flight SYD-gulf-LHR with 787-10 will be cheaper and about the same time.
they can find suitable airport in the gulf - Muscat, etc


First of all they did not order the type you mentioned unlike the selection of the 35K for Project Sunrise. Second how can a one stop flight be about the same time as a non-stop flight? And third please provide proof that a one stop flight with a 787-10 would be cheaper than a nonstop flight with the 35K?

i expected holy crusade)

i dont have a proof. just my thoughts, i think 781 will burn ~100tonns total on SYD-BLR-LHR and 35K about 125+ non-stop
and one leg will be under 10-hours so no extra crew.


It is also a much smaller plane, so you can't really compare the fuel burn between the two like that. We are talking a 316 ton 400 seater that can lift 160 tons vs a 254 ton 330 seater that takes 120 tons.

My own experience and what I've heard from colleagues at other airlines, you definitely don't want to stop in India if you can avoid it. Indian airports are a mess. Overcongested, slow and you have to deal with an epic administratum. You'd need to do a crew swap and have crews up in a hotel, and that definitely isn't a good idea in India. Immigration takes forever (both in and outbound) and eating, even in a good hotel, poses a health risk. There is a reason nobody decided to stop in otherwise so conveniently located India on those flights.
 
VV
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:12 am

I am pretty sure they will order A350.

Whether it is for Project Sunrise or Project Moonlight is another question.

They cancelled some A380, so it is absolutely normal they order some A350.
 
Noshow
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:54 am

While the A350 makes sense I don't see ultra long range nonstop flights being needed for some time. These are high cost requiring high yield ticket sales. The current weak market is not supporting this for the time being. So better do one stops and take less fuel but more cargo instead or similar.
 
melpax
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:04 am

myki wrote:
zeke wrote:
myki wrote:
On the flip side, how can you justify not planning for the future, and in a few years time having VS flying LHR-MEL and AA flying JFK-SYD while QF can only offer a one-stop option?

Both VS and AA may not exist by the time Covid recovers.

... and there may be new players on the market by then too. Who knows. Better to be prepared and have a niche that you can offer to your customers that your competitor can't. For EK that's an onboard bar, for QF that's a one-flight journey. Each to their own. :D


I suspect that when 'unrestricted' outbound travel from Australia is allowed again, the corporates will demand non-stop flights whenever possible, especially if travel bubbles are set up as an interim measure, or certain countries are declared off limits on occasion. Less risk of plans getting sidetracked.

As I've said in other threads, the sunrise flights will only come into being because of the Corporate demand, leisure travellers will mainly still travel to Europe via Asia or the Mid East to save money.
 
VSMUT
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:40 am

Noshow wrote:
While the A350 makes sense I don't see ultra long range nonstop flights being needed for some time. These are high cost requiring high yield ticket sales. The current weak market is not supporting this for the time being. So better do one stops and take less fuel but more cargo instead or similar.


The problem with one-stops is that many countries have begun imposing near impossible entry restrictions. This isn't going to go away. Europe, the US and Australia might get vaccinations finished quickly, but everything in between will be struggling with coronavirus for years. Requirements for tests done within a certain amount of time is not a temporary thing that will go away, realistically we will be doing it for the next decade. Every stop you eliminate will make things infinitely more easy. That's why I believe non-stop is going to be the future.

Then there's the fact that leisure travel has completely collapsed and won't be recovering for years. Airlines will be relying on business travel for the next many years.
 
jsfr
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:40 pm

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
He didn’t confirm anything about ordering any jet other than why they haven’t ordered it.


How can you justify having a large potion of your workforce stood down on no pay and make large capital procurements?



Surely this is good news for the workforce?

They would be buying new planes to fly them, not just to look at. And to fly them requires people, lots of people.
 
georgiabill
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:13 pm

QF could take advantage of Norwegian's decision to drop long haul flying and pick up a few of their 789'S.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:19 pm

This should also be the time to simplify. QF no longer needs jumbos, and so they could do 737 (A320 at Jetstar and QantasLink), A330/A350 (one pilot group) and 787. The A330 stays since it shares a type rating with the A350. That would mean writing off the A380s.

The real question might actually be on the smaller end as those Fokkers and 717s need replacement.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:50 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
This should also be the time to simplify. QF no longer needs jumbos, and so they could do 737 (A320 at Jetstar and QantasLink), A330/A350 (one pilot group) and 787. The A330 stays since it shares a type rating with the A350. That would mean writing off the A380s.

The real question might actually be on the smaller end as those Fokkers and 717s need replacement.


For the Fokkers and Boeing 717 the perfect replacement would be the Airbus A220 perfectly adapted to your needs

I see the future of QF's widebody fleet with the perfect duo of Boeing 787 / Airbus A350
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:52 pm

georgiabill wrote:
QF could take advantage of Norwegian's decision to drop long haul flying and pick up a few of their 789'S.

I hope they can rent or buy some of these models, 14 Boeing 787s are very few for their long-haul missions and apart from that they need Boeing 787s for premium routes like TYO, SIN and HKG
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:27 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
QF could take advantage of Norwegian's decision to drop long haul flying and pick up a few of their 789'S.

I hope they can rent or buy some of these models, 14 Boeing 787s are very few for their long-haul missions and apart from that they need Boeing 787s for premium routes like TYO, SIN and HKG


As mentioned over on the OZ thread there is also the JQ 788s, I don’t think they have a crew rest? Could these be added with a few less J than the 789 and extra Y say 28J 28W 166Y, 222 seats maybe good on slightly less J than the 789 BNE-LAX etc and other routes that may need W.
 
jfk777
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:52 pm

For all the folks wanting ex-Norwegian 787 to become Qantas, the QF birds have GE engines & the Norwegian planes hae Rollers. The Norwegian birds would be great for BA or Virgin Atlantic. An airline needing a whole fleet like a new South African flag carrier.
 
Ruscoe
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:48 am

If QF buy Project Sunrise aircraft, in the next couple of years, it will probably be A350. However to order them this year seems to me to be contrary to QF's conservative capital management, and regardless of that, demand is uncertain and risky.
As already pointed out it will take years for many countries to get on top of Covid, and even if vaccinated I think Australia will demand a couple of days quarantine,until the results of a negative Covid test performed on arrival are at hand. If so this will not be very popular and will kill demand. A reliable and sensative instant result Covid test might help, but infected people will slip through the net and while the authorities in Australia are letting the Health professionals call the shots, it is still highly political when an outbreak occurs.
It seems clear to me that Covid has delayed Project Sunrise, and ordering aircraft for it within the next couple of years is just too risky.

Ruscoe
 
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lightsaber
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:51 am

Please discuss project sunrise in this thread. This thread became a Qantas fleet thread. Please take fleet replacement to another thread.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:55 am

Ruscoe wrote:
If QF buy Project Sunrise aircraft, in the next couple of years, it will probably be A350. However to order them this year seems to me to be contrary to QF's conservative capital management, and regardless of that, demand is uncertain and risky.
As already pointed out it will take years for many countries to get on top of Covid, and even if vaccinated I think Australia will demand a couple of days quarantine,until the results of a negative Covid test performed on arrival are at hand. If so this will not be very popular and will kill demand. A reliable and sensative instant result Covid test might help, but infected people will slip through the net and while the authorities in Australia are letting the Health professionals call the shots, it is still highly political when an outbreak occurs.
It seems clear to me that Covid has delayed Project Sunrise, and ordering aircraft for it within the next couple of years is just too risky.

Ruscoe

I have significant work in Australia, if there was a way that I could travel there with only a 2day quarantine restriction by paying a premium to fly direct I would be buying my ticket now to travel in 12hrs. In my opinion COVID helps the project sunrise case comparatively vs connecting options.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:37 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
QF could take advantage of Norwegian's decision to drop long haul flying and pick up a few of their 789'S.

I hope they can rent or buy some of these models, 14 Boeing 787s are very few for their long-haul missions and apart from that they need Boeing 787s for premium routes like TYO, SIN and HKG

Pretty sure the Norwegian Dreamliners have the RR engines & Qantas have a pay per hour arrangement with GE
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:33 pm

Captdasbomb wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
QF could take advantage of Norwegian's decision to drop long haul flying and pick up a few of their 789'S.

I hope they can rent or buy some of these models, 14 Boeing 787s are very few for their long-haul missions and apart from that they need Boeing 787s for premium routes like TYO, SIN and HKG

Pretty sure the Norwegian Dreamliners have the RR engines & Qantas have a pay per hour arrangement with GE


They can be changed. However, PER-LHR is at about the absolute limit of the Boeing limit and that's 7840 nmi (only possible because of a premium-heavy configuration at 236 seats---the advertised range is 7635 nmi at what happens to be MF's configuration). SYD-JFK is 8660 nmi...and you still have to have an alternate airport, likely EWR outbound and CBR inbound. (SYD-LHR is 9200 nmi.) The A35Ks here could probably be modified with some additional tanks in the cargo hold, with most cargo instead put on regular LAX flights and then transferred to other aircraft, or carried on leased 5Y metal.

Also, I am curious as to whether or not QF would want first class on these planes---it would definitely be way less than 368 seats, probably in the realm of 290-300 seats. Internet access would be a must as well. I'm looking at QR's seat map...

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Qatar ... 000_V1.php

and doing some modifications from that...I could come up with:
J: 46 seats (103"/79" fully lie flat and 20") 1-2-1 (same configuration as QR's QSuite)
W: 28 seats (38"/19") 2-3-2 (on the QR map, this rips out rows 16-20--reducing by 3
Y+: 63 seats (35"/17.5") 3-3-3 (this rips out rows 21-29 on the QR map - the last 3 rows before R3/L3 would be 3-0-3 because the middle section would have a flight attendant rest area)
Y: 154 seats (31"-32"/17.5") (behind doors R3/L3) - only delete Row 48 on the QR map

The result would be 291 seats in a 4-class configuration, which could be crewed by 12 flight attendants (I say 12 because 2 complete crews would be needed) and 4 pilots. Alan Joyce has said he wants around 300 seats with an economy section.

JFK would actually be easier to reach than LHR. As for why the A350 is preferred - it already exists and has ETOPS 370 out of the box.
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:30 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I hope they can rent or buy some of these models, 14 Boeing 787s are very few for their long-haul missions and apart from that they need Boeing 787s for premium routes like TYO, SIN and HKG

Pretty sure the Norwegian Dreamliners have the RR engines & Qantas have a pay per hour arrangement with GE


They can be changed. However, PER-LHR is at about the absolute limit of the Boeing limit and that's 7840 nmi (only possible because of a premium-heavy configuration at 236 seats---the advertised range is 7635 nmi at what happens to be MF's configuration). SYD-JFK is 8660 nmi...and you still have to have an alternate airport, likely EWR outbound and CBR inbound. (SYD-LHR is 9200 nmi.) The A35Ks here could probably be modified with some additional tanks in the cargo hold, with most cargo instead put on regular LAX flights and then transferred to other aircraft, or carried on leased 5Y metal.

Also, I am curious as to whether or not QF would want first class on these planes---it would definitely be way less than 368 seats, probably in the realm of 290-300 seats. Internet access would be a must as well. I'm looking at QR's seat map...

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Qatar ... 000_V1.php

and doing some modifications from that...I could come up with:
J: 46 seats (103"/79" fully lie flat and 20") 1-2-1 (same configuration as QR's QSuite)
W: 28 seats (38"/19") 2-3-2 (on the QR map, this rips out rows 16-20--reducing by 3
Y+: 63 seats (35"/17.5") 3-3-3 (this rips out rows 21-29 on the QR map - the last 3 rows before R3/L3 would be 3-0-3 because the middle section would have a flight attendant rest area)
Y: 154 seats (31"-32"/17.5") (behind doors R3/L3) - only delete Row 48 on the QR map

The result would be 291 seats in a 4-class configuration, which could be crewed by 12 flight attendants (I say 12 because 2 complete crews would be needed) and 4 pilots. Alan Joyce has said he wants around 300 seats with an economy section.

JFK would actually be easier to reach than LHR. As for why the A350 is preferred - it already exists and has ETOPS 370 out of the box.


Thought the order for 12 modified A350Ks was pretty much a done deal just pushed out by Covid. That would almost certainly guarantee the mothballing of all the unmodified A380s
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 447
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:25 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Also, I am curious as to whether or not QF would want first class on these planes---it would definitely be way less than 368 seats, probably in the realm of 290-300 seats. Internet access would be a must as well. I'm looking at QR's seat map...

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Qatar ... 000_V1.php

and doing some modifications from that...I could come up with:
J: 46 seats (103"/79" fully lie flat and 20") 1-2-1 (same configuration as QR's QSuite)
W: 28 seats (38"/19") 2-3-2 (on the QR map, this rips out rows 16-20--reducing by 3
Y+: 63 seats (35"/17.5") 3-3-3 (this rips out rows 21-29 on the QR map - the last 3 rows before R3/L3 would be 3-0-3 because the middle section would have a flight attendant rest area)
Y: 154 seats (31"-32"/17.5") (behind doors R3/L3) - only delete Row 48 on the QR map

The result would be 291 seats in a 4-class configuration, which could be crewed by 12 flight attendants (I say 12 because 2 complete crews would be needed) and 4 pilots. Alan Joyce has said he wants around 300 seats with an economy section.


Alan Joyce has already stated there will be first class on these planes. Additionally, Qantas doesn't have a separate "economy plus" offering, so it makes sense the plane will be First/Business/PE/E.

I don't know what First will be, but I think the cabin size will likely be six, and less likely be 8. Then we'll have the J cabin 1-2-1 at a 46" pitch (just like the Dreamliners, but perhaps a slightly wider seat), and then a PE cabin which I presume will be 2-3-2 abreast but with a wider seat than the current Qantas PE seats, and a 38" pitch. Economy seats will be 17.4" wide (presuming they stick with Recaro, whom they currently use, and I'm going with Virgin Atlantic's stats) or perhaps 17.5" wide, with at least 32" pitch and possibly 33" pitch (maybe QF will find a way to do 32.5" pitch or something, who knows). QF has also said there will be a walking/stretching area on board.

I'd say that the jet is unlikely to have more than 280 people on it. It might only be 250 or 260, but this is all speculation.
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 379
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:54 pm

When it is safe to do so, do you think they will launch ORD-BNE, or wait for project sunrise to fly ORD-SYD?
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4289
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:00 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
Also, I am curious as to whether or not QF would want first class on these planes---it would definitely be way less than 368 seats, probably in the realm of 290-300 seats. Internet access would be a must as well. I'm looking at QR's seat map...

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Qatar ... 000_V1.php

and doing some modifications from that...I could come up with:
J: 46 seats (103"/79" fully lie flat and 20") 1-2-1 (same configuration as QR's QSuite)
W: 28 seats (38"/19") 2-3-2 (on the QR map, this rips out rows 16-20--reducing by 3
Y+: 63 seats (35"/17.5") 3-3-3 (this rips out rows 21-29 on the QR map - the last 3 rows before R3/L3 would be 3-0-3 because the middle section would have a flight attendant rest area)
Y: 154 seats (31"-32"/17.5") (behind doors R3/L3) - only delete Row 48 on the QR map

The result would be 291 seats in a 4-class configuration, which could be crewed by 12 flight attendants (I say 12 because 2 complete crews would be needed) and 4 pilots. Alan Joyce has said he wants around 300 seats with an economy section.


Alan Joyce has already stated there will be first class on these planes. Additionally, Qantas doesn't have a separate "economy plus" offering, so it makes sense the plane will be First/Business/PE/E.

I don't know what First will be, but I think the cabin size will likely be six, and less likely be 8. Then we'll have the J cabin 1-2-1 at a 46" pitch (just like the Dreamliners, but perhaps a slightly wider seat), and then a PE cabin which I presume will be 2-3-2 abreast but with a wider seat than the current Qantas PE seats, and a 38" pitch. Economy seats will be 17.4" wide (presuming they stick with Recaro, whom they currently use, and I'm going with Virgin Atlantic's stats) or perhaps 17.5" wide, with at least 32" pitch and possibly 33" pitch (maybe QF will find a way to do 32.5" pitch or something, who knows). QF has also said there will be a walking/stretching area on board.

I'd say that the jet is unlikely to have more than 280 people on it. It might only be 250 or 260, but this is all speculation.

A35k at the same density as the QF 789 would put it at about 293pax, the same ‘linear density’ (pax per meter of cabin length) would be 287 pax. I think, as you say sub 280 is very likely and actually maybe required for operational reasons.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8105
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:20 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
When it is safe to do so, do you think they will launch ORD-BNE, or wait for project sunrise to fly ORD-SYD?


My 2 cents worth I would say this route has been pushed back atleast 5 years, there is
- not enough demand for a few years
- aircraft shortage
- other existing routes to restart before an ORD service.

I would say when QF eventually so fly there it will be SYD-ORD with project sunrise.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8785
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:31 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
When it is safe to do so, do you think they will launch ORD-BNE, or wait for project sunrise to fly ORD-SYD?


My 2 cents worth I would say this route has been pushed back atleast 5 years, there is
- not enough demand for a few years
- aircraft shortage
- other existing routes to restart before an ORD service.

I would say when QF eventually so fly there it will be SYD-ORD with project sunrise.


Agreed. Qantas will be short of aircraft in coming years so routes like BNE-ORD are deferred indefinitely. By the time the market recovers and they have enough aircraft to fly, it will likely be from SYD with the A350.
 
Speedy752
Posts: 123
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:13 am

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:31 pm

Not sure any of us have the answer but with the bite COVID is taking out of demand would they be able to start sunrise using some new/existing/secondhand 789? The smaller footprint could allow them to test demand to determine when 35k sized planes would be necessary. They could then fold those aircraft back into their normal fleet. If the route is business heavy, do we think there is a permanent shift in business demand? I would see such a massively long flight being a casualty of covid and virtual meetings more than a few hour jaunt across US/EU for meetings.
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