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B777LRF
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Copenhagen: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:12 am

The numbers are staggering; in 2020 CPH was back to the passenger numbers of 1970.

That's 50 years of growth wiped out in a period of 10 months, and is evidence of the gruelling impact Covid-19 has had on aviation.

https://check-in.dk/cph-tabte-50-aars-t ... -maaneder/
(LInk in Danish)

On the bright side, it won't take 50 years - or even 5 - to get back to the 2019 numbers. But countless families have been left devasted as a result of the lost jobs, and an equal measure of companies within the industry have either succumbed or are hanging on by the tips of their financial fingernails. On top of this comes the billions of taxpayer money which have been pumped into the industry to contain some of the impact, and an equally historic amount of money spent on fast tracking the vaccines.

But a big thank you and tons of admiration to the scientist of BionTech, Oxford, Moderna et. all, who will be the saviours of our industry.
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HANSABEL84
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:21 am

numbers will bounce back in time, but the current situation does give the opportunity to look at what pre-corona travel looked like.
Copenhagen was already plagued with overtourism for a few years, and I do wonder why anyone would like to go back to that.
Never ending growth became a mantra in the travel industri without caring much about the consequences.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:40 am

B777LRF wrote:
The numbers are staggering; in 2020 CPH was back to the passenger numbers of 1970.

That's 50 years of growth wiped out in a period of 10 months, and is evidence of the gruelling impact Covid-19 has had on aviation.

https://check-in.dk/cph-tabte-50-aars-t ... -maaneder/
(LInk in Danish)

On the bright side, it won't take 50 years - or even 5 - to get back to the 2019 numbers. But countless families have been left devasted as a result of the lost jobs, and an equal measure of companies within the industry have either succumbed or are hanging on by the tips of their financial fingernails. On top of this comes the billions of taxpayer money which have been pumped into the industry to contain some of the impact, and an equally historic amount of money spent on fast tracking the vaccines.

But a big thank you and tons of admiration to the scientist of BionTech, Oxford, Moderna et. all, who will be the saviours of our industry.




And a big thank you to politicians and government worldwide that pumped unprecedented amounts of stimulus into the airline industry. If not the whole industry would be bankrupt and or liquidated right now.

Still a long way to go with many dark months ahead.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:00 pm

This is staggering. I personally think it will take 5 years to recover.

Vaccination is key. I've posted in other forums how Pfizer is going to 6 factories (from 2, it will take time). Mederna to 2:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/katiejenni ... s-in-2021/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... caling-up/

I have hopes of other Vaccines being mass produced soon that are 85%+ effective.

Aviation is a tiny part of CO2. We would do more for the environment if we mandated no TV for 2 hours per day. British Petroleum invented a new bio fuel process where for every 30% of the fuel burned in aircraft, the total CO2 production is reduced 20%. We need another answer other than no growth. Last I looked, China us now a third of CO2. Perhaps we should discuss that in non-Av? This is my last tidbit on CO2.

https://www.chemengonline.com/membrane- ... uel-yield/

Other posters are correct in that we are worrying about jobs. In my opinion there will be far more deaths from the psychological and economic impacts.

I suggest reading a book called "The Hungry Years." In that book there is a chapter on why the great depression was called a depression. Men would just sit on street corners week after week as there was no work and they couldn't figure out what to do. My psychiatrist and therapist friends are very concerned about the shear level of depression they see. One if my friends I saw at a supermarket was surprised I showed no signs of depression (it is that common in SoCal). The fact I have a steady job and flew to another state for a vacation were probably the reasons.

Those isolating at home are having major psychological issues. I can see it in four people I know. Be smart, my sister is a doctor in a Covid19 critical care ward (out if ICU as her state was smart enough to prepare in March and April of 2020, stuff California is doing now... sigh...).

When this is over, I will fly again. I already have a trip planned assuming I can receive a vaccine in April. We will see if 1C is served by then (and I am in tier 3 of 1C).

However, so many people are refusing Vaccination here in California that I already know 12 people vaccinated way out of priority order (once defrosted, Vaccines must be used, so patients in the hospital and spouses of priority staff are getting vaccinated).

The groundwork was well laid to recover.

I'm bummed Johnson & Johnson hit a production snag. They were what I thought would be the volume Vaccine, but now 12 million doses by late April instead of late February: :cry2:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2 ... layed/amp/

My opinion, and only my opinion, is that the vaccines with 85%+ effectiveness are good enough for society to return to normal or a new lower economic level normal.

Just as aviation is at a 50 year low, so are many businesses that drive aviation: cruise ships, vacations, amusement parks, conventions, and business travel. I am of the opinion the last will recover to at best 70% of the prior trend line, but just my opinion. For example, we lost perhaps $xxk of productivity yesterday because one person was working remotely wasn't told about a coating change due to chemical availability (this happens). Return to work will be more than many want. That means a return to audit teams flying in.

Lightsaber
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:27 pm

Travel, in general, was getting a bit overheated in the past couple of years.
Over-tourism in many destinations
Overzealous production rates
Overzealous start-ups
Cheap money to lend

Business travel basically being business tourism and so on

It is a good time to look in retrospect to rationalize travel to some extent for the greater good of all.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:57 pm

No one knows what will happen with business air travel, particularly long haul. Legacies might need to alter their product set from a reality of a greater percentage of leisure travel. I see more aggressive monetization of premium cabins. More ancillary revenue.

As far as the ecology people are going to continue to fly. Ships crossing the oceans aren't any better (and probably worse) for the environment.
 
B777LRF
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:12 pm

HANSABEL84 wrote:
Copenhagen was already plagued with overtourism for a few years, and I do wonder why anyone would like to go back to that.


Copenhagen was neither plagued nor burdened with over tourism.

Back in 2019 I had a job in downtown Copenhagen and, sure, there were quite a lot of tourists. But it was nowhere near a plague, in fact it was rather invigorating to see the life and business opportunities it brought with it. You may find a few residents who found it a tad tiresome, but if you chose to live in the centre of a large city that's part of the price you have to pay for all the benefits. It's a bit like moving to a new house close to an airport or farm, and then start complaining over the noise and smell. Hustle, bustle and large number of tourists is a part of daily life in most big cities, and you just have to learn to live with it or move out.
Last edited by B777LRF on Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SurfandSnow
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:55 pm

Copenhagen will have a long road to recovery. Norwegian offered quite a bit of transatlantic service that won't be coming back... do any U.S. carriers even serve CPH anymore?
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:25 pm

This is an aviation forum. If your stated desire is for less people to fly, then what are you even doing here?


The future is to make flying more efficient not to dramatically reduce it.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Oykie
Posts: 2020
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Re: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:03 pm

B777LRF wrote:
HANSABEL84 wrote:
Copenhagen was already plagued with overtourism for a few years, and I do wonder why anyone would like to go back to that.


Copenhagen was neither plagued nor burdened with over tourism.

Back in 2019 I had a job in downtown Copenhagen and, sure, there were quite a lot of tourists. But it was nowhere near a plague, in fact it was rather invigorating to see the life and business opportunities it brought with it. You may find a few residents who found it a tad tiresome, but if you chose to live in the centre of a large city that's part of the price you have to pay for all the benefits. It's a bit like moving to a new house close to an airport or farm, and then start complaining over the noise and smell. Hustle, bustle and large number of tourists is a part of daily life in most big cities, and you just have to learn to live with it or move out.


I love traveling, and I enjoy Copenhagen and Denmark as most Norwegians do. I have been in Copenhagen on some of it’s busiest days, but it is not overcrowded. Someone claiming that Copenhagen being crowded, have never been to Tokyo at the Shibuya crossing, Manhattan or taken the Moscow metro during rush hour.

I look forward to travel again and I hope we will travel like never before once we are allowed. I have so many people I would like to see again, and so many places I want to go. I would say aviation benefits the world a lot. Imagine how many people get COVID vaccine these days by air shipment. Medicine is shipped all over. Aid can come in to the tiniest, most remote places. Far more people are harmed by this set back than anyone has benefited.

You made an interesting post that travel in 2020 was more equal to travel in 1970. It has been a setback. Looking forward to the recovery.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Copenhagen: 50 Years of Growth Lost in 10 Months

Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:07 pm

This is an aviation thread about how much the industry has shrunk in 2020. CO2/Global warming goes in non-av.

At this point, the two sides are talking past each other. We do not moderate the truth or who has the higher ground. We are the premier aviation discussion site. In civil aviation discuss aviation or you face a ban.

For most posts, if I only read the reply, I couldn't have guessed the topic. When side conversations take over a thread, start a new thread in the appropriate forum.

This is your warning.
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