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ZK-NBT
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:23 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
This whole discussion is predicated on the assumption that what NZ said about possible uses for the 787-10 pre-pandemic is still valid right now. I’d suggest that the situation is highly fluid and that we can draw no conclusions from the scraps of information we have “officially“ on the subject. The shape of NZ’s route network and the levels of frequency that will be sustainable post-pandemic are still far from clear. In particular, the level of business travel that will occur in future is a big unknown - many businesses have found that they can get along just fine with much less travel, and the cost savings may be quite compelling. This could have a major impact on the network, frequencies and configuration of the international fleet in the medium to long term.

In the meantime, let’s speculate by all means, but we can all save ourselves much angst and frustration by being less dogmatic about what “will“ happen. The truth is that we just don’t know.


Very good points.

From what I gather 1 78X was converted to a 789 soon after the order was placed, NZ are “reasonably” well placed compared to many airlines. However even for large operates like the US 3 they also have a lot of older frames which could simply be retired without being replaced like NZ will definitely do with the 772 fleet, the 77W is to young but simply may not be required a bit like DL’s recently refreshed 777 fleet which saw the whole DL 777 fleet parked partly due to the relatively small size compared to the large A330 and growing 359 fleet.

It makes total sense that the current orders for NZ could be 77W replacements and I definitely don’t think it was “missed”. Reality is as you say David we just don’t know and neither does NZ or many other carriers.

Personally I think a potential change to all 789s wouldn’t be surprising but again we just don’t know, I’m a bit more skeptical than some here on when we will see some form of “normality” return.

Simply I think you have to have a few scenarios to play with and again NZ will but for now for most it remains about cash and survival.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:38 pm

Does NZ have a higher demand for importing cargo or exporting? If the extra lift is needed for sending cargo to North America that could help the case for the 78J
 
zkncj
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:14 pm

JohanTally wrote:
Does NZ have a higher demand for importing cargo or exporting? If the extra lift is needed for sending cargo to North America that could help the case for the 78J


Demand is about even, exporting fresh produce etc then importing main consumer items e.g. online shopping. Also is not just cargo to New Zealand, is it also transiting onto Australia NZ is still operating daily cargo 789 flights an day on AKL-SYD/BNE/MEL for cargo connections.

Even during COVID-19 NZ has been sending 2-3x 789s a day to the US just on freight runs, to keep cargo moving.

If someone was to bring out say an 787-9BBCF conversion project that could change things up for NZ.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:06 pm

JohanTally wrote:
Does NZ have a higher demand for importing cargo or exporting? If the extra lift is needed for sending cargo to North America that could help the case for the 78J


The importance of cargo depends on individual airlines, some derive less than 5% of their revenue from cargo, whilst others over 20%.

The higher the cargo loads the worse it is for the 78J, the weight of additional fuselage length from the 789 is taken off the payload the 789 could carry.
 
johns624
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:56 am

migair54 wrote:
Antaras wrote:
With 2-class config the 78X can reach 350 seats.
Seems like an acceptable 77W-replacement.

(NZ can also have a look at JL's A359 3-class config too)


But they have a big difference in the cargo hold,
B781 has capacity for 40 LD3
B779 has capacity for 48 LD3

I don't know how much cargo ANZ uplifts but 8 LD3 containers could make a big difference.
Nobody but you has mentioned the 779. The 77W is the -300ER.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:07 am

johns624 wrote:
migair54 wrote:
Antaras wrote:
With 2-class config the 78X can reach 350 seats.
Seems like an acceptable 77W-replacement.

(NZ can also have a look at JL's A359 3-class config too)


But they have a big difference in the cargo hold,
B781 has capacity for 40 LD3
B779 has capacity for 48 LD3

I don't know how much cargo ANZ uplifts but 8 LD3 containers could make a big difference.
Nobody but you has mentioned the 779. The 77W is the -300ER.


I’m not sure what he meant there but they definitely won’t order the 779 or the 359 that was mentioned as well. Cargo plays a roll but the aircraft will be ordered for its capability to carry pax across the network, long haul first then also short haul where NZ wide bodies live during the day time. Also commonality.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:01 am

NZ has to exist long enough to take deliveries of their 787-10s first. I don't think it's too much to say that they could be bankrupt long before then if their national govt still insists in closed borders for the foreseeable. That same government has not been hugely supportive even as the major shareholders. I would suggest a LOT of water is yet to pass under the bridge before a decision on the matter is set into place and the floodwaters still rise. NZ the country hasn't even started vaccinations yet (for an example of just one variable affecting this decision)
 
ewt340
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:40 am

They probably install new business class seats right? So there would be some reduction in capacity. Probably around 42C 56P and 203Y.

So realistically speaking, how much range increase/mtow they need for those heavy cargo?
 
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zkojq
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:45 am

Do we really think that the government will let Air New Zealand go bankrupt? The government has always kept a "hands-off" approach to it's stake in Air New Zealand - at least up until the one billion dollar loan facility extended to the airline last year, but I can't see them letting the airline go bankrupt. Especially considering the relative strength of the government's balance sheet.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:21 pm

aerorobnz wrote:
NZ has to exist long enough to take deliveries of their 787-10s first. I don't think it's too much to say that they could be bankrupt long before then if their national govt still insists in closed borders for the foreseeable. That same government has not been hugely supportive even as the major shareholders.

Sorry, but the idea that the government would let NZ go bankrupt is just not credible. Whether it takes delivery of the 787-10s is another matter, and that will depend on the speed of recovery of the market. I thought I was the one who had a monopoly on "constant negativity" but seems I was wrong!
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:28 am

The 787 order contracted in May 2018 was originally intended to be a replacement fleet for the 777-200,” says chief financial officer Richard Thomson.

“With that fleet permanently grounded and impaired in 2020, the wide body fleet has reduced from 29 to 21 aircraft. The 787s that will enter the fleet from the 2024 financial year will now replace the 777-300 fleet which is expected to be phased out within this decade.”

So yes. The 787-10 did end up replacing the 777-300ER for AirNZ as initially suggested

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 25.article
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:45 am

Opus99 wrote:
The 787 order contracted in May 2018 was originally intended to be a replacement fleet for the 777-200,” says chief financial officer Richard Thomson.

“With that fleet permanently grounded and impaired in 2020, the wide body fleet has reduced from 29 to 21 aircraft. The 787s that will enter the fleet from the 2024 financial year will now replace the 777-300 fleet which is expected to be phased out within this decade.”

So yes. The 787-10 did end up replacing the 777-300ER for AirNZ as initially suggested

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 25.article


It remains to be seen how many will end up being 781s, the first 2 will be 789s. Not a shock either way with this order replacing the 77W and at least some being 789s.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:49 am

Opus99 wrote:
The 787 order contracted in May 2018 was originally intended to be a replacement fleet for the 777-200,” says chief financial officer Richard Thomson.

“With that fleet permanently grounded and impaired in 2020, the wide body fleet has reduced from 29 to 21 aircraft. The 787s that will enter the fleet from the 2024 financial year will now replace the 777-300 fleet which is expected to be phased out within this decade.”

So yes. The 787-10 did end up replacing the 777-300ER for AirNZ as initially suggested

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 25.article


It was NEVER initially suggested to replace the 77W, NZ was a very different airline then, expanding, employing a lot of staff, nice traffic growth projections.

NZ is a former shadow of itself, laying off staff, grounding aircraft, massive traffic shrinkage.

“ “We’ve actually compartmentalised those decisions so our view at this point is that we would still need a replacement for the 777-300ER,” he said.

“Our intention at this stage is that when the 777-300s come up for replacement towards the mid-to-late 2020s . . . that would be the logical time when we will probably want to look at a larger aircraft. The A350s and the Boeing 777Xs come into the frame.

“At this point the 787-10s (or nines) are not code for replacing the -300s.

“We are really impressed with the candidate aircraft (to replace them). The A350-1000 is a great aircraft, as is the Boeing 777X, though it still has to come through development.”

From https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... 787-order/

It is also highly unlikely they will take all of the 787-10s if tye NZ government keeps NZ closed, they always had the ability to swap -10s for -9s.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:27 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
The 787 order contracted in May 2018 was originally intended to be a replacement fleet for the 777-200,” says chief financial officer Richard Thomson.

“With that fleet permanently grounded and impaired in 2020, the wide body fleet has reduced from 29 to 21 aircraft. The 787s that will enter the fleet from the 2024 financial year will now replace the 777-300 fleet which is expected to be phased out within this decade.”

So yes. The 787-10 did end up replacing the 777-300ER for AirNZ as initially suggested

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 25.article


It was NEVER initially suggested to replace the 77W, NZ was a very different airline then, expanding, employing a lot of staff, nice traffic growth projections.

NZ is a former shadow of itself, laying off staff, grounding aircraft, massive traffic shrinkage.

“ “We’ve actually compartmentalised those decisions so our view at this point is that we would still need a replacement for the 777-300ER,” he said.

“Our intention at this stage is that when the 777-300s come up for replacement towards the mid-to-late 2020s . . . that would be the logical time when we will probably want to look at a larger aircraft. The A350s and the Boeing 777Xs come into the frame.

“At this point the 787-10s (or nines) are not code for replacing the -300s.

“We are really impressed with the candidate aircraft (to replace them). The A350-1000 is a great aircraft, as is the Boeing 777X, though it still has to come through development.”

From https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... 787-order/

It is also highly unlikely they will take all of the 787-10s if tye NZ government keeps NZ closed, they always had the ability to swap -10s for -9s.

I meant as I initially suggested in the original post. Nobody is arguing with you.

Also what makes it highly unlikely? will they close it forever? even if they don't. it remains the -10 will play a major role in replacing the 77W at Air NZ. if you dont like it you can contact them
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:08 am

Opus99 wrote:
Also what makes it highly unlikely? will they close it forever? even if they don't. it remains the -10 will play a major role in replacing the 77W at Air NZ. if you dont like it you can contact them


What makes it highly unlikely is their financial position today, and forward looking projections for when the -10 EIS was originally planned is very weak. NZ as a country has isolated itself from the world, and recently totally shutdown just for a few covid cases.

They have the majority of their wide bodies (ie the 777s) parked or returned to lessors, they don’t need extra capacity, and they don’t need to reduce the little cash they have available.

Everyone can see this.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:18 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Also what makes it highly unlikely? will they close it forever? even if they don't. it remains the -10 will play a major role in replacing the 77W at Air NZ. if you dont like it you can contact them


What makes it highly unlikely is their financial position today, and forward looking projections for when the -10 EIS was originally planned is very weak. NZ as a country has isolated itself from the world, and recently totally shutdown just for a few covid cases.

They have the majority of their wide bodies (ie the 777s) parked or returned to lessors, they don’t need extra capacity, and they don’t need to reduce the little cash they have available.

Everyone can see this.

When the -10 EIS was originally planned doesn’t matter anymore. NZ is not getting any more 787s until 2024 (when it is getting two) now instead of the originally planned 2022.

Your statement applies to a lot of airlines in the region that are still taking or planning on taking aircraft.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:26 am

Polot wrote:
When the -10 EIS was originally planned doesn’t matter anymore. NZ is not getting any more 787s until 2024 (when it is getting two) now instead of the originally planned 2022.

Your statement applies to a lot of airlines in the region that are still taking or planning on taking aircraft.


I agree totally, hence my objection to the statement a few posts above “ So yes. The 787-10 did end up replacing the 777-300ER for AirNZ as initially suggested ”.

What was originally planned, and the original circumstances that lead to those plans are all out the window.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:34 am

zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:
When the -10 EIS was originally planned doesn’t matter anymore. NZ is not getting any more 787s until 2024 (when it is getting two) now instead of the originally planned 2022.

Your statement applies to a lot of airlines in the region that are still taking or planning on taking aircraft.


I agree totally, hence my objection to the statement a few posts above “ So yes. The 787-10 did end up replacing the 777-300ER for AirNZ as initially suggested ”.

What was originally planned, and the original circumstances that lead to those plans are all out the window.

Opus99’s “initial suggestion” is referring to his thread starting post made 7 months ago, not at time of order. You seem to be suggesting that NZ will never at any point in the future take up 787-10s which I, like Opus99, find unlikely.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:58 am

Polot wrote:
Opus99’s “initial suggestion” is referring to his thread starting post made 7 months ago, not at time of order. You seem to be suggesting that NZ will never at any point in the future take up 787-10s which I, like Opus99, find unlikely.


No his suggestion is that the 787-10 will be a 77W, that has never been NZs idea.

As for obtaining-10s, they are under no obligation to take any. That was made clear at the time of the order, they have the flexibility to swap between -9 and -10 models. They have zero need for any additional 787s at the moment, let alone -10s.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:53 pm

zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:
Opus99’s “initial suggestion” is referring to his thread starting post made 7 months ago, not at time of order. You seem to be suggesting that NZ will never at any point in the future take up 787-10s which I, like Opus99, find unlikely.


No his suggestion is that the 787-10 will be a 77W, that has never been NZs idea.

As for obtaining-10s, they are under no obligation to take any. That was made clear at the time of the order, they have the flexibility to swap between -9 and -10 models. They have zero need for any additional 787s at the moment, let alone -10s.

Please show me where I said that? Is a 78X a 77W? It is not. But it will replace the 77W as Air NZ has eluded to. So like I initially said based on what air NZ said earlier in the year. The 78X will replace the 77W. Is it the perfect replacement. Probably not. There’s really nothing to argue about here. I’m not stating opinions I’m giving you what air NZ has said
 
mig17
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:08 pm

Opus99 wrote:
The 78X will replace the 77W.

Looking at your link, it is more "the 789 and the 78X will replace the 77W".
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:09 pm

mig17 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
The 78X will replace the 77W.

Looking at your link, it is more "the 789 and the 78X will replace the 77W".

Well yes, I’m assuming where range is more important the 789 will stand in. Where payload is more important the 78X will stand in. I guess their route network allows them to do that successfully
 
jayunited
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:46 pm

mig17 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
The 78X will replace the 77W.

Looking at your link, it is more "the 789 and the 78X will replace the 77W".


Read the entire article at the bottom of the article Air New Zealand stated the 787- 9/10s are not a replacement for their 77Ws, and when the time comes later on this decade they will be looking at the A350-1000 or the 777X, it is right there in the Australian Aviation article under the section titled 777 replacements.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:58 pm

jayunited wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
The 78X will replace the 77W.

Looking at your link, it is more "the 789 and the 78X will replace the 77W".


Read the entire article at the bottom of the article Air New Zealand stated the 787- 9/10s are not a replacement for their 77Ws, and when the time comes later on this decade they will be looking at the A350-1000 or the 777X, it is right there in the Australian Aviation article under the section titled 777 replacements.


That article is from 2 years ago, plans can change.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:53 pm

jayunited wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
The 78X will replace the 77W.

Looking at your link, it is more "the 789 and the 78X will replace the 77W".


Read the entire article at the bottom of the article Air New Zealand stated the 787- 9/10s are not a replacement for their 77Ws, and when the time comes later on this decade they will be looking at the A350-1000 or the 777X, it is right there in the Australian Aviation article under the section titled 777 replacements.


They've got seven 77Ws (per planespotters). NZ would be crazy - just crazy - to introduce a new widebody type in such a low quantity. Use more 787-10s where they have the passenger count; more 787-9s where they need range.

Contracted Boeing 787 order initially intended to replace the
Boeing 777-200 fleet but will now replace the Boeing 777-300
fleet, given permanent retirement of 8 Boeing 777-200 aircraft
in 2020
• Committed aircraft capital expenditure profile reflects deferral
of two Boeing 787 from 2023 to 2024 and 2024 to 2026, and
assumes all contractual slide rights are executed


Those quotes are from the Annual Shareholder Review published 26 Aug 2021.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:42 pm

It's all well and good they are simplfying their fleet, seeing as there is no other option. OTOH, what if any are the modifications that the FAA will require on the 787s already flying?

Right now no 787s are being delivered, much less ordered!
 
NZ321
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:36 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
It's all well and good they are simplfying their fleet, seeing as there is no other option. OTOH, what if any are the modifications that the FAA will require on the 787s already flying?

Right now no 787s are being delivered, much less ordered!


Frankly, NZ's on board product prior to Covid had long since lost it's edge, particularly up front. And given the timeline has slipped further on what was already a much overdue replacement on an outdated (embarrassing?) business product.... I'd avoid this airline for long haul. At least, that's unless I was planning on sitting in Premium Econ. That's the only cabin where NZ has what I'd call a decent - potentially leading - product. Avoid the rest. Wait until they get their act together which they surely will, eventually.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:13 pm

Any evidence of the rumoured MTOW bump for NZ's 7810s, which would make it a more effective replacement for the 77Ws?
 
NZ321
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 5:16 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Any evidence of the rumoured MTOW bump for NZ's 7810s, which would make it a more effective replacement for the 77Ws?


None so far to my knowledge - sure hope I am wrong.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:05 pm

Are there any published definitively increase on the 787 capibility? Would seem a quite easy enhancement to do, in that no huge investment is required. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Are there constraints or limitations that prevent these being made, or are they dependent on engine PIPs only??

Rgds
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:32 pm

NZ321 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Any evidence of the rumoured MTOW bump for NZ's 7810s, which would make it a more effective replacement for the 77Ws?


None so far to my knowledge - sure hope I am wrong.

What kind of evidence? From Boeing? Or from official sources? No not.

Same person that brought RR TXWB PIP for 2024 EIS. Jon Ostrower. The 787 improvement is known as the 787 IGW within Boeing apparently.

Leeham news has also referenced the MTOW bump.

Boeing won’t announce. Do they usually announce it?
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:11 pm

Opus99 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Any evidence of the rumoured MTOW bump for NZ's 7810s, which would make it a more effective replacement for the 77Ws?


None so far to my knowledge - sure hope I am wrong.

What kind of evidence? From Boeing? Or from official sources? No not.

Same person that brought RR TXWB PIP for 2024 EIS. Jon Ostrower. The 787 improvement is known as the 787 IGW within Boeing apparently.

Leeham news has also referenced the MTOW bump.

Boeing won’t announce. Do they usually announce it?


I always wonder if Boeing is protecting the higher end again.... Don't let the 787-10 gain too much capability or it will nullify 777-8 or perhaps even 777-9 sales.

The 10 was always a comprimise that used the 9 wing, which also used the 8 wing.... gear is slightly beefed up, but it's still a double bogey. I always wonder how capable the 7810 will be allowed to get. Will it become capable enough for a carrier like NZ to replace the 77W, or will they often have to scale down to the 789?
 
smartplane
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:27 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I always wonder if Boeing is protecting the higher end again.... Don't let the 787-10 gain too much capability or it will nullify 777-8 or perhaps even 777-9 sales.

The 10 was always a comprimise that used the 9 wing, which also used the 8 wing.... gear is slightly beefed up, but it's still a double bogey. I always wonder how capable the 7810 will be allowed to get. Will it become capable enough for a carrier like NZ to replace the 77W, or will they often have to scale down to the 789?

Just like Airbus withholds A330NEO capability upgrades to protect A350, and A330 in-service upgrades to protect A330NEO.
 
zkncj
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:02 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
The 10 was always a comprimise that used the 9 wing, which also used the 8 wing.... gear is slightly beefed up, but it's still a double bogey. I always wonder how capable the 7810 will be allowed to get. Will it become capable enough for a carrier like NZ to replace the 77W, or will they often have to scale down to the 789?


Bare in mind that NZ 77W are currently very low density seating only 342 passengers (even less when you account for seats blocked for SkyCouch) they are 44 J, 54PE, 244 Y.

By contrast the 77W were 308 pax in 26 J, 40 PE, 246 Y.

Along with the 789s in code 1 are 302 pax 18 J, 21 PE, 263 PE.

With code 2 789s being 275 pax with 27 in J, 33 PE, 215 in Y.

Pre 787 NZ’s model was largely around hubbing people into LAX/SFO with onward domestic connections from there.

The 787 changed that, it allowed for frequently service to open deeper into the US eg IAH, ORD and was to EWR in OCT 20.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:04 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
They've got seven 77Ws (per planespotters). NZ would be crazy - just crazy - to introduce a new widebody type in such a low quantity. Use more 787-10s where they have the passenger count; more 787-9s where they need range.

Contracted Boeing 787 order initially intended to replace the
Boeing 777-200 fleet but will now replace the Boeing 777-300
fleet, given permanent retirement of 8 Boeing 777-200 aircraft
in 2020
• Committed aircraft capital expenditure profile reflects deferral
of two Boeing 787 from 2023 to 2024 and 2024 to 2026, and
assumes all contractual slide rights are executed


Those quotes are from the Annual Shareholder Review published 26 Aug 2021.


That is a quote from the power point, https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

what was actually said available in the transcript https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... script.pdf

"Looking now at future fleet, you can see the expected phasing of our aircraft capital expenditures through to 2028. First, I'd like to note that the 787 order contracted in May 2018 was originally intended to be a replacement fleet for the 777-200. With that fleet permanently grounded and impaired in 2020, the wide body fleet has reduced from 29 to 21 aircraft. The 787s that will enter the fleet from the 2024 financial year will now replace the 777-300 fleet which is expected to be phased out within this decade.

Moving on, the committed aircraft capital expenditure profile you see on slide 18 reflects the deferral of two Boeing 787s. One aircraft moving from financial year 2023 to 2024 and another from 2024 to 2026. An important distinction in the graph this year is that we've tried to provide more colour on our committed aircraft CapEx Profile across a longer period of time. As such, this chart also includes an assumption around the contractual slide rights we expect to utilise based on current assumptions of demand and border reopenings.

Clearly, there is a lot of uncertainty associated with these assumptions. But hopefully, this provides some good insights into how we are currently thinking about the fleet. Also reflected in the committed aircraft CapEx are the expected deferrals of two A321neo domestic aircraft originally due for delivery in the 2024 financial year and now expected to arrive in 2027 based on an assumed exercise of deferral rights.
We don't have any committed aircraft orders beyond 2028 with the current fleet age of 6.7 years, we're expecting that average fleet age to drift up during the forecast period.

Finally, we are turning our minds to the need for an interior refit program on our existing fleet of 14 787s. The interiors on that fleet will start to require a refresh at some point beyond the 2023 financial year which will require additional CapEx that is not currently reflected in the chart. When we know more about the timing and quantum of that program of work, we will communicate that to you."

I take that to mean all of the 777s will be going and total fleet size reducing, and they will be only taking 8 of their additional 787s. I think these will be 787-9s at this stage given the rising losses, the 787-10s cost more and provide seating capacity increase that they dont need.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Any evidence of the rumoured MTOW bump for NZ's 7810s, which would make it a more effective replacement for the 77Ws?


There is still no evidence, nothing has been released by Boeing. I find it amusing that something that has seen no announcement by the manufacturer is treated as gospel by some, when at the same time Airbus has announced the A350F and the same posters have been basically saying there has been no launch.

The 77W can take maximum payload out to 5600 nm (source ACAPS page 3.2.2), the 777-200A out to 3300 nm (source ACAPS 3.2.1), 77E out to 5700 nm (source ACAPS 3.2.2). the 789 on the other hand out to 5200 nm (source ACAPS 3.2.2.) and the 787-10 out to 4100 nm (source ACAPS 3.2.3) from https://www.boeing.com/commercial/airpo ... nuals.page

The rumored MTOW increase would increase the range by about another hour, or around 480 nm, it does not change the MZFW which impacts the actual total amount of payload. On a pure payload basis, the 787-10 carries around 20 tonnes less payload than the 77W,

Jayunited has said when UA operated their 787-10s to NZ they could basically only carry passengers, no cargo. The 777s in NZ carry a lot of cargo, they only aircraft that can perform a similar role for them will be the 789 as it can carry passengers and cargo over these routes.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1950
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:39 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Also what makes it highly unlikely? will they close it forever? even if they don't. it remains the -10 will play a major role in replacing the 77W at Air NZ. if you dont like it you can contact them


What makes it highly unlikely is their financial position today, and forward looking projections for when the -10 EIS was originally planned is very weak. NZ as a country has isolated itself from the world, and recently totally shutdown just for a few covid cases.

What makes it highly unlikely is that they've already announced that two of the order will be 789s. My own view is that an all-789 WB fleet of 22 aircraft is very possible - and even desirable in a world where point-to-point services are becoming increasingly important.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4362
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:45 am

zeke wrote:
Jayunited has said when UA operated their 787-10s to NZ they could basically only carry passengers, no cargo. The 777s in NZ carry a lot of cargo, they only aircraft that can perform a similar role for them will be the 789 as it can carry passengers and cargo over these routes.


Maybe from 2024 we could see some of the owned 77W being converted to BCF's if there is still demand for cargo required, over the last 18 months NZ has largely become an long-haul freight operator. You could almost call the 787 fleet now freighters with passenger seats.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16425
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:35 am

DavidByrne wrote:
What makes it highly unlikely is their financial position today, and forward looking projections for when the -10 EIS was originally planned is very weak. NZ as a country has isolated itself from the world, and recently totally shutdown just for a few covid cases.

What makes it highly unlikely is that they've already announced that two of the order will be 789s. My own view is that an all-789 WB fleet of 22 aircraft is very possible - and even desirable in a world where point-to-point services are becoming increasingly important.[/quote]

I totally agree with your sentiments, there are many valid points, this should come of no surprise to anyone, from the original media release

"The airplane deal, announced in May as a commitment, includes options to increase the number of aircraft from eight up to 20, and substitution rights that allow a switch from the larger 787-10 to smaller 787-9s, or a combination of the two models for future fleet and network flexibility."

from https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-09-25 ... liner-Jets

zkncj wrote:
Maybe from 2024 we could see some of the owned 77W being converted to BCF's if there is still demand for cargo required, over the last 18 months NZ has largely become an long-haul freight operator. You could almost call the 787 fleet now freighters with passenger seats.


There is no BCF (Boeing Converted Freighter) program for the 77W, it is an extremal 3rd party solution (Bedek/IAI), no OEM support is provided. I am still skeptical on the program as the 777 has a lot more done via software which Bedek has no access to the AIMS code. Their previous conversions (737/767/747) were on older aircraft that had little automation in comparison.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2485
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:18 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Just came across this. I know NZ was going to look at an order for either the 350 or 777X to replace the 300ERs but this seems to have gone under the radar somehow because i've not seen a discussion on it.

I was saying the 787 was going to replace the 777W for the last 2 years. It is good to see that I am right.

This 2 year old thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1423399

RJMAZ wrote:
Air New Zealand has 9 777-200ER's and 8 777-300ER's. So this order of 8 787-10's and 12 787-9 options is also replacing the 777W fleet next decade. The options are to get delivery slots.

People often think aircraft get replaced by the model that is the closest in floor area and range, this is very rarely the case.


Again in this tech ops thread 2 years ago: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1411693&p=21146681

RJMAZ wrote:
As I said previously the 787 will also replace the 777-300ER's based on the options.

The 787-10 can easily do 75% of the 777-300ER routes. The longest routes and the new ultra long haul routes will go to the 787-9.

I hear it time and time that a certain aircraft won't get purchased because it will be a downgrade or upgrade in size. That plays a very small part to the decision.

The only time you want to keep a large aircraft is if you have limited landing slots at a mega hub. New Zealand will be opening up new North American routes so there is less priority on the Los Angeles flight being as big as possible.


zeke wrote:
The 787-10 is not capable of US flights.

Auckland to Los Angeles is only 5670nm. The 787-10 regularly operates routes that long. The whole south west of the USA is within reach of the 787-10. The 787-9 will be used for the longer routes.

Auckland to New York is actually 150nm shorter than Perth to London comfortablly operated by Qantas. Granted Air New Zealand's current 787-9 fleet has a higher density cabin but I heard a rumour that two ultra long haul routes might have a premium cabin.


Good to see the 787-10 is officially replacing the 777-300ER. It was always the plan. I said it was the plan 2 years ago.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1437
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 1:24 pm

zeke wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
They've got seven 77Ws (per planespotters). NZ would be crazy - just crazy - to introduce a new widebody type in such a low quantity. Use more 787-10s where they have the passenger count; more 787-9s where they need range.

Contracted Boeing 787 order initially intended to replace the
Boeing 777-200 fleet but will now replace the Boeing 777-300
fleet, given permanent retirement of 8 Boeing 777-200 aircraft
in 2020
• Committed aircraft capital expenditure profile reflects deferral
of two Boeing 787 from 2023 to 2024 and 2024 to 2026, and
assumes all contractual slide rights are executed


Those quotes are from the Annual Shareholder Review published 26 Aug 2021.


That is a quote from the power point, https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

what was actually said available in the transcript https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... script.pdf

"Looking now at future fleet, you can see the expected phasing of our aircraft capital expenditures through to 2028. First, I'd like to note that the 787 order contracted in May 2018 was originally intended to be a replacement fleet for the 777-200. With that fleet permanently grounded and impaired in 2020, the wide body fleet has reduced from 29 to 21 aircraft. The 787s that will enter the fleet from the 2024 financial year will now replace the 777-300 fleet which is expected to be phased out within this decade.

Moving on, the committed aircraft capital expenditure profile you see on slide 18 reflects the deferral of two Boeing 787s. One aircraft moving from financial year 2023 to 2024 and another from 2024 to 2026. An important distinction in the graph this year is that we've tried to provide more colour on our committed aircraft CapEx Profile across a longer period of time. As such, this chart also includes an assumption around the contractual slide rights we expect to utilise based on current assumptions of demand and border reopenings.

Clearly, there is a lot of uncertainty associated with these assumptions. But hopefully, this provides some good insights into how we are currently thinking about the fleet. Also reflected in the committed aircraft CapEx are the expected deferrals of two A321neo domestic aircraft originally due for delivery in the 2024 financial year and now expected to arrive in 2027 based on an assumed exercise of deferral rights.
We don't have any committed aircraft orders beyond 2028 with the current fleet age of 6.7 years, we're expecting that average fleet age to drift up during the forecast period.

Finally, we are turning our minds to the need for an interior refit program on our existing fleet of 14 787s. The interiors on that fleet will start to require a refresh at some point beyond the 2023 financial year which will require additional CapEx that is not currently reflected in the chart. When we know more about the timing and quantum of that program of work, we will communicate that to you."

I take that to mean all of the 777s will be going and total fleet size reducing, and they will be only taking 8 of their additional 787s. I think these will be 787-9s at this stage given the rising losses, the 787-10s cost more and provide seating capacity increase that they dont need.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Any evidence of the rumoured MTOW bump for NZ's 7810s, which would make it a more effective replacement for the 77Ws?


There is still no evidence, nothing has been released by Boeing. I find it amusing that something that has seen no announcement by the manufacturer is treated as gospel by some, when at the same time Airbus has announced the A350F and the same posters have been basically saying there has been no launch.

The 77W can take maximum payload out to 5600 nm (source ACAPS page 3.2.2), the 777-200A out to 3300 nm (source ACAPS 3.2.1), 77E out to 5700 nm (source ACAPS 3.2.2). the 789 on the other hand out to 5200 nm (source ACAPS 3.2.2.) and the 787-10 out to 4100 nm (source ACAPS 3.2.3) from https://www.boeing.com/commercial/airpo ... nuals.page

The rumored MTOW increase would increase the range by about another hour, or around 480 nm, it does not change the MZFW which impacts the actual total amount of payload. On a pure payload basis, the 787-10 carries around 20 tonnes less payload than the 77W,

Jayunited has said when UA operated their 787-10s to NZ they could basically only carry passengers, no cargo. The 777s in NZ carry a lot of cargo, they only aircraft that can perform a similar role for them will be the 789 as it can carry passengers and cargo over these routes.


This is logical and common sense - I reckon it'll be back to 789s too. Hopefully with a better internal config.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16425
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:07 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Good to see the 787-10 is officially replacing the 777-300ER. It was always the plan. I said it was the plan 2 years ago.


History will record the reason for the initial retirement and shrinkage of the 777 fleet from NZ was COVID, and there is no evidence that they will be getting any 787-10s at this stage. They have announced the next WB aircraft being delivered in the 2023 FY is a 787-9, not a 787-10. By 2027 they only expect to have 20 WB aircraft. That is not something you predicted, I don’t recall anyone predicting they would remove 8x77Es and 7x77Ws they had in 2019 and replace them with 6 WBs, nor do I recall you predicting they are reducing the 2019 order down to 6 aircraft.

Image

From https://airinsight.com/new-lockdowns-di ... w-zealand/
 
NZ516
Posts: 807
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:57 pm

So only 6 more 787s to come not 8 as originally planned this will save a lot of capex.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8100
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:25 pm

NZ516 wrote:
So only 6 more 787s to come not 8 as originally planned this will save a lot of capex.


The graph used goes to 2027, I’m sure I read somewhere the last 2 had been deferred to 2028? This graph goes out to when the 77Ws planned .are retired, while on the 77W I wonder what the original planned retirement was? Personally I doubt 2027 is much different to what would have been planned originally, it maybe a year or 2 earlier.
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 1022
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:23 pm

The 787-10 is a great aircraft. For what it does probably the most efficient widebody on a per seat basis out there. But it does not have the payload range capability of the 77W. As Zeke said above, at MTOW the 787-10 has about 4100-4200 nm range. At 35 T of payload which would be full pax and bags and meaningful cargo think 5000-5300 nm range depending on conditions. That's it.

My understanding is the 787-10 wing and landing gear is already very close to maxed out. at MTOW. I am not really sure how much more can be squeezed out of the frame without serious and expensive new engineering, The upgrade in MTOW has been rumored for at least a year, possibly longer. Yet, to my knowledge, Boeing has never made an official announcement to that effect. Now personally, I would love to see the MTOW upgrade if it is possible, but at this point I am more than a little skeptical.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3491
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:43 pm

zeke wrote:
there is no evidence that they will be getting any 787-10s at this stage.


Your picture conveniently leaves off the 787-10 reference. Slides 19 and 36 of the presentation specifically identify the 787-10. How can you say there is no evidence? To the contrary, you have no evidence they will not take the 787-10, only that 2 have been converted to -9s.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10174
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:55 pm

zeke wrote:
Jayunited has said when UA operated their 787-10s to NZ they could basically only carry passengers, no cargo. The 777s in NZ carry a lot of cargo, they only aircraft that can perform a similar role for them will be the 789 as it can carry passengers and cargo over these routes.


So, that takes us to a question:

On what historical 77W routes -- where NZ is frequency-restricted by treaty -- does NZ actually need the range plus payload capacity of the 77W?

If they're not frequency-restricted they can just run a few more 787-9s a week. They get fleet simplification as the 77Ws go away and a lot more flexibility.

The idea of a further 787-10 payload increase (even if possible) may not go anywhere unless high-volume buyers (meaning SQ and UA today, and their orders aren't big) value it, too.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16425
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:18 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
So only 6 more 787s to come not 8 as originally planned this will save a lot of capex.


The graph used goes to 2027, I’m sure I read somewhere the last 2 had been deferred to 2028? This graph goes out to when the 77Ws planned .are retired, while on the 77W I wonder what the original planned retirement was? Personally I doubt 2027 is much different to what would have been planned originally, it maybe a year or 2 earlier.


Their origami plan was to replace the 77W with the 77X or A350-1000 “mid to late 2020s” in the Australian Aviation interview. There was no plan originally to shrink the fleet and let go of thousands of employeees.

In the article I linked above they state

“ On its fleet plans, Air New Zealand will continue further simplification. All seven Boeing 777-300ERs will have left by 2027, which follows after the phasing out of the 777-200s. The wide-body fleet will consist of twenty 787s in 2027, up six from 2021. Deliveries of two Dreamliners have been deferred from 2023-2024 to 2024-2026. The cabin refurbishment of fourteen 787s is scheduled from 2023.
The narrow-body fleet will grow from 31 to 33 Airbus A321neo’s in 2027, although two have been deferred from 2024 to 2027. The carrier has no Capex commitments beyond 2028.”

That is clear there is only 6x787s coming, and no more, I.e. “The carrier has no Capex commitments beyond 2028”.

jbs2886 wrote:
How can you say there is no evidence? To the contrary, you have no evidence they will not take the 787-10, only that 2 have been converted to -9s.


As you have stated, NZ have announced swapping out -10s for -9s. There is no requirement for them to take any -10s. I provided that information above in the Boeing press release from 2019.

MIflyer12 wrote:

So, that takes us to a question:

On what historical 77W routes -- where NZ is frequency-restricted by treaty -- does NZ actually need the range plus payload capacity of the 77W?

If they're not frequency-restricted they can just run a few more 787-9s a week. They get fleet simplification as the 77Ws go away and a lot more flexibility.

The idea of a further 787-10 payload increase (even if possible) may not go anywhere unless high-volume buyers (meaning SQ and UA today, and their orders aren't big) value it, too.


There is no route that I am aware of where NZ fly that are slot restricted (sold LHR), they can increase frequency with the -9. The -10 in my view does not provide any more payload to them, just additional seats. I agree with your view around additional flexibility being the key, as well as being able to carry passengers and cargo transpacific.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8100
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:03 pm

zeke wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
So only 6 more 787s to come not 8 as originally planned this will save a lot of capex.


The graph used goes to 2027, I’m sure I read somewhere the last 2 had been deferred to 2028? This graph goes out to when the 77Ws planned .are retired, while on the 77W I wonder what the original planned retirement was? Personally I doubt 2027 is much different to what would have been planned originally, it maybe a year or 2 earlier.


Their origami plan was to replace the 77W with the 77X or A350-1000 “mid to late 2020s” in the Australian Aviation interview. There was no plan originally to shrink the fleet and let go of thousands of employeees.

In the article I linked above they state

“ On its fleet plans, Air New Zealand will continue further simplification. All seven Boeing 777-300ERs will have left by 2027, which follows after the phasing out of the 777-200s. The wide-body fleet will consist of twenty 787s in 2027, up six from 2021. Deliveries of two Dreamliners have been deferred from 2023-2024 to 2024-2026. The cabin refurbishment of fourteen 787s is scheduled from 2023.
The narrow-body fleet will grow from 31 to 33 Airbus A321neo’s in 2027, although two have been deferred from 2024 to 2027. The carrier has no Capex commitments beyond 2028.”

That is clear there is only 6x787s coming, and no more, I.e. “The carrier has no Capex commitments beyond 2028”.

jbs2886 wrote:
How can you say there is no evidence? To the contrary, you have no evidence they will not take the 787-10, only that 2 have been converted to -9s.


As you have stated, NZ have announced swapping out -10s for -9s. There is no requirement for them to take any -10s. I provided that information above in the Boeing press release from 2019.

MIflyer12 wrote:

So, that takes us to a question:

On what historical 77W routes -- where NZ is frequency-restricted by treaty -- does NZ actually need the range plus payload capacity of the 77W?

If they're not frequency-restricted they can just run a few more 787-9s a week. They get fleet simplification as the 77Ws go away and a lot more flexibility.

The idea of a further 787-10 payload increase (even if possible) may not go anywhere unless high-volume buyers (meaning SQ and UA today, and their orders aren't big) value it, too.


There is no route that I am aware of where NZ fly that are slot restricted (sold LHR), they can increase frequency with the -9. The -10 in my view does not provide any more payload to them, just additional seats. I agree with your view around additional flexibility being the key, as well as being able to carry passengers and cargo transpacific.


Re the A350-100 or 77X, the chances of either happening wasn't that great imo, it was interesting that they had 12 787 options beyond the 8 ordered giving a potential 34 787s eventually. Of course there was no plan to shrink the airline. NZ have like many airlines for years been heading towards a simplified fleet, given how much they like the 787 and their desire to simplify i don't really think adding either the 77X or A350 would have happened.

Why wouldn't they announce the cancellation of 2 787s? Have they pushed them out beyond 2028 then where they currently don't have to commit any CAPEX?

There is evidence they will take 787-10s in as much as they still mention them, however they have converted the first 2 to 789 and it seems likely they will convert further frames IMO given the current clitmate.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12386
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:28 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
zeke wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

The graph used goes to 2027, I’m sure I read somewhere the last 2 had been deferred to 2028? This graph goes out to when the 77Ws planned .are retired, while on the 77W I wonder what the original planned retirement was? Personally I doubt 2027 is much different to what would have been planned originally, it maybe a year or 2 earlier.


Their origami plan was to replace the 77W with the 77X or A350-1000 “mid to late 2020s” in the Australian Aviation interview. There was no plan originally to shrink the fleet and let go of thousands of employeees.

In the article I linked above they state

“ On its fleet plans, Air New Zealand will continue further simplification. All seven Boeing 777-300ERs will have left by 2027, which follows after the phasing out of the 777-200s. The wide-body fleet will consist of twenty 787s in 2027, up six from 2021. Deliveries of two Dreamliners have been deferred from 2023-2024 to 2024-2026. The cabin refurbishment of fourteen 787s is scheduled from 2023.
The narrow-body fleet will grow from 31 to 33 Airbus A321neo’s in 2027, although two have been deferred from 2024 to 2027. The carrier has no Capex commitments beyond 2028.”

That is clear there is only 6x787s coming, and no more, I.e. “The carrier has no Capex commitments beyond 2028”.

jbs2886 wrote:
How can you say there is no evidence? To the contrary, you have no evidence they will not take the 787-10, only that 2 have been converted to -9s.


As you have stated, NZ have announced swapping out -10s for -9s. There is no requirement for them to take any -10s. I provided that information above in the Boeing press release from 2019.

MIflyer12 wrote:

So, that takes us to a question:

On what historical 77W routes -- where NZ is frequency-restricted by treaty -- does NZ actually need the range plus payload capacity of the 77W?

If they're not frequency-restricted they can just run a few more 787-9s a week. They get fleet simplification as the 77Ws go away and a lot more flexibility.

The idea of a further 787-10 payload increase (even if possible) may not go anywhere unless high-volume buyers (meaning SQ and UA today, and their orders aren't big) value it, too.


There is no route that I am aware of where NZ fly that are slot restricted (sold LHR), they can increase frequency with the -9. The -10 in my view does not provide any more payload to them, just additional seats. I agree with your view around additional flexibility being the key, as well as being able to carry passengers and cargo transpacific.


Re the A350-100 or 77X, the chances of either happening wasn't that great imo, it was interesting that they had 12 787 options beyond the 8 ordered giving a potential 34 787s eventually. Of course there was no plan to shrink the airline. NZ have like many airlines for years been heading towards a simplified fleet, given how much they like the 787 and their desire to simplify i don't really think adding either the 77X or A350 would have happened.

Why wouldn't they announce the cancellation of 2 787s? Have they pushed them out beyond 2028 then where they currently don't have to commit any CAPEX?

There is evidence they will take 787-10s in as much as they still mention them, however they have converted the first 2 to 789 and it seems likely they will convert further frames IMO given the current clitmate.


They 20 787 figure is for 2027 (presumably year end), but they state no CAPEX beyond 2028, which can easily mean the missing 2 787s are being delivered in 2028.

That could also be when the missing A320neos/A321neos are being delivered, because that 31 figure appears to include the A320ceos. NZ currently has 31 A320ceo/A320neos/A321neos, not 31 A320neos. They only have 20 A320/A321neos ordered period including ones delivered.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4362
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:23 pm

Polot wrote:
.
That could also be when the missing A320neos/A321neos are being delivered, because that 31 figure appears to include the A320ceos. NZ currently has 31 A320ceo/A320neos/A321neos, not 31 A320neos. They only have 20 A320/A321neos ordered period including ones delivered.


I wouldn’t read into the a320/321 fleet to much, it pretty flexible and common has its numbers tweaked around. Short-Haul travel is likely to have the strongest short-term re-growth. So would expect additional a320/321 added as required, in the past NZ has done mupltie top up’s when they have needed additional capacity.

The majority of the domestic a320CEO fleet (all the 320WL models) are owned, so will give them them flexibility around fleet numbers. The oldest 4x domestic a320CEO’s are leased and expire in the next year or so which are 2010/2011 builds. So plenty of chance these leases can be extended as required.

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