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sincx
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:25 pm

Great.

A 3-3-3 787, while not ideal, will still be significantly more comfortable than a 3-4-3 777.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:28 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Re the A350-100 or 77X, the chances of either happening wasn't that great imo, it was interesting that they had 12 787 options beyond the 8 ordered giving a potential 34 787s eventually. Of course there was no plan to shrink the airline. NZ have like many airlines for years been heading towards a simplified fleet, given how much they like the 787 and their desire to simplify i don't really think adding either the 77X or A350 would have happened.

Why wouldn't they announce the cancellation of 2 787s? Have they pushed them out beyond 2028 then where they currently don't have to commit any CAPEX?

There is evidence they will take 787-10s in as much as they still mention them, however they have converted the first 2 to 789 and it seems likely they will convert further frames IMO given the current clitmate.


The A350/77X made sense to me for cargo transpacific. They provide around 40% payload lift transpacific without a corresponding increase in cost.

The term used in the annual results “Nocommittedaircraftcapitalexpenditurecurrentlybeyond 2028” means to me no further contracted aircraft.

The slide that mentions 786-9/787-10 states 16 aircraft in 2026, however we also know those 16 will all be 787-9.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:34 pm

Polot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
zeke wrote:

Their origami plan was to replace the 77W with the 77X or A350-1000 “mid to late 2020s” in the Australian Aviation interview. There was no plan originally to shrink the fleet and let go of thousands of employeees.

In the article I linked above they state

“ On its fleet plans, Air New Zealand will continue further simplification. All seven Boeing 777-300ERs will have left by 2027, which follows after the phasing out of the 777-200s. The wide-body fleet will consist of twenty 787s in 2027, up six from 2021. Deliveries of two Dreamliners have been deferred from 2023-2024 to 2024-2026. The cabin refurbishment of fourteen 787s is scheduled from 2023.
The narrow-body fleet will grow from 31 to 33 Airbus A321neo’s in 2027, although two have been deferred from 2024 to 2027. The carrier has no Capex commitments beyond 2028.”

That is clear there is only 6x787s coming, and no more, I.e. “The carrier has no Capex commitments beyond 2028”.



As you have stated, NZ have announced swapping out -10s for -9s. There is no requirement for them to take any -10s. I provided that information above in the Boeing press release from 2019.



There is no route that I am aware of where NZ fly that are slot restricted (sold LHR), they can increase frequency with the -9. The -10 in my view does not provide any more payload to them, just additional seats. I agree with your view around additional flexibility being the key, as well as being able to carry passengers and cargo transpacific.


Re the A350-100 or 77X, the chances of either happening wasn't that great imo, it was interesting that they had 12 787 options beyond the 8 ordered giving a potential 34 787s eventually. Of course there was no plan to shrink the airline. NZ have like many airlines for years been heading towards a simplified fleet, given how much they like the 787 and their desire to simplify i don't really think adding either the 77X or A350 would have happened.

Why wouldn't they announce the cancellation of 2 787s? Have they pushed them out beyond 2028 then where they currently don't have to commit any CAPEX?

There is evidence they will take 787-10s in as much as they still mention them, however they have converted the first 2 to 789 and it seems likely they will convert further frames IMO given the current clitmate.


They 20 787 figure is for 2027 (presumably year end), but they state no CAPEX beyond 2028, which can easily mean the missing 2 787s are being delivered in 2028.

That could also be when the missing A320neos/A321neos are being delivered, because that 31 figure appears to include the A320ceos. NZ currently has 31 A320ceo/A320neos/A321neos, not 31 A320neos. They only have 20 A320/A321neos ordered period including ones delivered.


Re the A320/321 fleet it is currently
7 A321 NEO, 4 A320NEO International configuration, 2 more A320NEO to be delivered
17 A320CEO Domestic configuration 13x Sharklet delivered 2013/17, 4x older CEOs are leased and planned to be replaced by incoming A321s, originally this year, these have been pushed out a little
3 A320CEO Older regional configuration, these were kept to grow the domestic fleet and currently cover some International flying as well, to be replaced by incoming A321s

In summary 9 on order A320/321NEOs to replace 3 older regional frames and 4 leased Domestic non SL frames. Plus 2 additional A320 International frames to be delivered.
4 A
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:40 pm

Polot wrote:
They 20 787 figure is for 2027 (presumably year end), but they state no CAPEX beyond 2028, which can easily mean the missing 2 787s are being delivered in 2028.


The years being mentioned in the annual results are financial years, not calendar years. For NZ that would be 1 April to 31 March.

The 20 787 figure means 20 787s as of 31 March 2028, end of the 2027 FY.

The statement no capex commitments beyond 2028, means no contracted deliveries beyond 1 April 2028.
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:49 pm

zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:
They 20 787 figure is for 2027 (presumably year end), but they state no CAPEX beyond 2028, which can easily mean the missing 2 787s are being delivered in 2028.


The years being mentioned in the annual results are financial years, not calendar years. For NZ that would be 1 April to 31 March.

The 20 787 figure means 20 787s as of 31 March 2028, end of the 2027 FY.

The statement no capex commitments beyond 2028, means no contracted deliveries beyond 1 April 2028.


According to their website https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/investor-centre

their FY 2021 was 1 July 2020 - 30June 2021.

On that basis, their FY 27 would be 01/07/26 to 30/06/27 so you're about 9 months out.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:22 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
According to their website https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/investor-centre

their FY 2021 was 1 July 2020 - 30June 2021.

On that basis, their FY 27 would be 01/07/26 to 30/06/27 so you're about 9 months out.


Fair enough my end date was wrong, looked at the 2021 results it’s the 12 months to 30 June 2021. The tax year in New Zealand is from 1 April to 31 March.

The principle of it being financial year and overlapping calendar years does not change, just the end date.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:35 am

zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:
They 20 787 figure is for 2027 (presumably year end), but they state no CAPEX beyond 2028, which can easily mean the missing 2 787s are being delivered in 2028.


The years being mentioned in the annual results are financial years, not calendar years. For NZ that would be 1 April to 31 March.

The 20 787 figure means 20 787s as of 31 March 2028, end of the 2027 FY.

The statement no capex commitments beyond 2028, means no contracted deliveries beyond 1 April 2028.

Unless they are confusingly mixing calendar and fiscal year in the same discussion (why?) my point still stands. There is a year gap between when they discussed fleet in 2027 versus beyond 2028- that gap being FY2028. It doesn’t matter if those don’t align with the calendar year. I interpret beyond 2028 as after the 2028 fiscal year, not from the start of the 2028 fiscal year.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:23 pm

Polot wrote:
Unless they are confusingly mixing calendar and fiscal year in the same discussion (why?) my point still stands. There is a year gap between when they discussed fleet in 2027 versus beyond 2028- that gap being FY2028. It doesn’t matter if those don’t align with the calendar year. I interpret beyond 2028 as after the 2028 fiscal year, not from the start of the 2028 fiscal year.


The slide on page 18 does show the expenditure for every FY up to and including the 2028 FY, which would be to June 30 2028. No planned CAPEX beyond that.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:09 am

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1463343&p=22936781#p22936781

Here is a link to the NZ thread, see post 248.
 
tealnz
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:58 am

Herald today quotes NZ CEO as saying that bringing the remaining 77Ws back into service is an option if demand spikes. And Foran raises further questions about the 787-10s:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-air-nz-still-aiming-for-new-york-riding-out-lockdown-hurdles/YXO46FVTYQGBAMM6T3CN5B7TQU/

I guess the obvious linkage between the two points is the lingering question about 787-10 payload westbound from North America to Auckland (Zeke earlier in the thread quoted 787-9 as having 6t more payload LAX-AKL than a 787-10 on a representative day) and the still unanswered question about whether Boeing is really committed to a 260t higher weight version. Taking all the additional 787s as -9s and bringing the 77Ws back for freight-heavy routes/ would address the technical limitations of the -10s westbound from US.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:49 am

tealnz wrote:
Herald today quotes NZ CEO as saying that bringing the remaining 77Ws back into service is an option if demand spikes. And Foran raises further questions about the 787-10s:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-air-nz-still-aiming-for-new-york-riding-out-lockdown-hurdles/YXO46FVTYQGBAMM6T3CN5B7TQU/

I guess the obvious linkage between the two points is the lingering question about 787-10 payload westbound from North America to Auckland (Zeke earlier in the thread quoted 787-9 as having 6t more payload LAX-AKL than a 787-10 on a representative day) and the still unanswered question about whether Boeing is really committed to a 260t higher weight version. Taking all the additional 787s as -9s and bringing the 77Ws back for freight-heavy routes/ would address the technical limitations of the -10s westbound from US.

A HGW version of both the -9 & -10 would be popular with a lot of airlines (even those that don’t need the increased range can still use them for more payload).
New wings and stronger triple axle gear (a la 777) will do the job. Add an hours range to each type and 5t of payload eg 10t increased MTOW. It’ll be the 777-300ER vs 300 all over again.
I could see NZ snapping up both types… the 787-9ER for ORD/EWR/IAH while the 787-10ER for LAX/SFO/YVR. Leaving the existing fleet + more 787-10ER to cover the rest of the network.
Hell if it’s good enough you might even see a 787-9ER (fitted with extra tanks) do AKL-LHR one day! That’s a 20 hour flight still air but with the right planning could get that down a bit.
 
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keesje
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:59 am

Zkpilot wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Herald today quotes NZ CEO as saying that bringing the remaining 77Ws back into service is an option if demand spikes. And Foran raises further questions about the 787-10s:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-air-nz-still-aiming-for-new-york-riding-out-lockdown-hurdles/YXO46FVTYQGBAMM6T3CN5B7TQU/

I guess the obvious linkage between the two points is the lingering question about 787-10 payload westbound from North America to Auckland (Zeke earlier in the thread quoted 787-9 as having 6t more payload LAX-AKL than a 787-10 on a representative day) and the still unanswered question about whether Boeing is really committed to a 260t higher weight version. Taking all the additional 787s as -9s and bringing the 77Ws back for freight-heavy routes/ would address the technical limitations of the -10s westbound from US.

A HGW version of both the -9 & -10 would be popular with a lot of airlines (even those that don’t need the increased range can still use them for more payload).
New wings and stronger triple axle gear (a la 777) will do the job. Add an hours range to each type and 5t of payload eg 10t increased MTOW. It’ll be the 777-300ER vs 300 all over again.
I could see NZ snapping up both types… the 787-9ER for ORD/EWR/IAH while the 787-10ER for LAX/SFO/YVR. Leaving the existing fleet + more 787-10ER to cover the rest of the network.
Hell if it’s good enough you might even see a 787-9ER (fitted with extra tanks) do AKL-LHR one day! That’s a 20 hour flight still air but with the right planning could get that down a bit.



I think a beefed up 787-10ER was discussed / dismissed many times over the years: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1339277

The 787 is a very good aircraft, but MTOW limited with its current 787-8 wings/engines. The 777X is way bigger, more expensive.

There seems to be a gap where the old 777-200ER and 777-300ER used to be dominant. & Airbus filled it with the A350's.
With a 50t payload, the 787-10 falls short ~1000-2000Nm / 2-4 hrs. No smart marketing talk makes that go away.
http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm26 ... 00-600.jpg

Image
source: viewtopic.php?t=1407839&start=50

I think a bigger wings and engines would be a good idea, but a $5B / 6 years good idea. Would it hurt the 777X program? Yes, of course..
 
majano
Posts: 369
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:13 pm

tealnz wrote:
Herald today quotes NZ CEO as saying that bringing the remaining 77Ws back into service is an option if demand spikes. And Foran raises further questions about the 787-10s:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-air-nz-still-aiming-for-new-york-riding-out-lockdown-hurdles/YXO46FVTYQGBAMM6T3CN5B7TQU/

I guess the obvious linkage between the two points is the lingering question about 787-10 payload westbound from North America to Auckland (Zeke earlier in the thread quoted 787-9 as having 6t more payload LAX-AKL than a 787-10 on a representative day) and the still unanswered question about whether Boeing is really committed to a 260t higher weight version. Taking all the additional 787s as -9s and bringing the 77Ws back for freight-heavy routes/ would address the technical limitations of the -10s westbound from US.

Article is for subscribers only?
 
tealnz
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:30 am

majano wrote:
Article is for subscribers only?

Sorry about that. The key sentences were:

The airline was also simplifying its fleet. It has retired its Boeing 777-200s, and had the option of bringing back its 777-300s if demand suddenly spiked, but it was quite possible the only aircraft it would use were 787 Dreamliners.
and
Two new 787-9s were due for delivery at the end of 2023. The airline had the option of switching the entire next tranche of Dreamliners to 787-9s, rather than the eight larger 787-10s it announced in 2019.


Tempting to speculate that

- the 260t variant/extra hour of range is on pause, even assuming it was a reality at one point
- NZ can see that current spec -10 isn’t a technical solution for North America, especially given the way cargo loads have evolved
- for inland US (Houston, Chicago, New York) to Auckland NZ needs the range of the -9
- so fleet planning is now focusing on the remaining owned 77Ws for LAX/SFO (pax and cargo) and new 787-9s for other routes.

Not a surprise. After all Luxon did say in the earlier Australian Aviation interview that the -10s were mainly destined for Asia.
 
NZ321
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:53 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Herald today quotes NZ CEO as saying that bringing the remaining 77Ws back into service is an option if demand spikes. And Foran raises further questions about the 787-10s:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-air-nz-still-aiming-for-new-york-riding-out-lockdown-hurdles/YXO46FVTYQGBAMM6T3CN5B7TQU/


A HGW version of both the -9 & -10 would be popular with a lot of airlines (even those that don’t need the increased range can still use them for more payload).
New wings and stronger triple axle gear (a la 777) will do the job. Add an hours range to each type and 5t of payload eg 10t increased MTOW. It’ll be the 777-300ER vs 300 all over again.
I could see NZ snapping up both types… the 787-9ER for ORD/EWR/IAH while the 787-10ER for LAX/SFO/YVR. Leaving the existing fleet + more 787-10ER to cover the rest of the network.
Hell if it’s good enough you might even see a 787-9ER (fitted with extra tanks) do AKL-LHR one day! That’s a 20 hour flight still air but with the right planning could get that down a bit.


New wings... stronger triple axle. Where is this coming from? Have you taken a look at Boeing lately? In my dreams I think I agree with you... but the practical reality is far from this in the near future. No upgraded capability of significance likely to be coming NZ's way in the guise of a 787 within NZ's delivery timeframe. If they need more than the 787-9 they are back to the 350 and 777x.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:15 pm

A future 787ER is better served by a re-engine (using knowledge/improvements from RR Ultrafan and GE 9x/Leap) than new gear/wing.
 
majano
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:43 pm

tealnz wrote:
majano wrote:
Article is for subscribers only?

Sorry about that. The key sentences were:

The airline was also simplifying its fleet. It has retired its Boeing 777-200s, and had the option of bringing back its 777-300s if demand suddenly spiked, but it was quite possible the only aircraft it would use were 787 Dreamliners.
and
Two new 787-9s were due for delivery at the end of 2023. The airline had the option of switching the entire next tranche of Dreamliners to 787-9s, rather than the eight larger 787-10s it announced in 2019.


Tempting to speculate that

- the 260t variant/extra hour of range is on pause, even assuming it was a reality at one point
- NZ can see that current spec -10 isn’t a technical solution for North America, especially given the way cargo loads have evolved
- for inland US (Houston, Chicago, New York) to Auckland NZ needs the range of the -9
- so fleet planning is now focusing on the remaining owned 77Ws for LAX/SFO (pax and cargo) and new 787-9s for other routes.

Not a surprise. After all Luxon did say in the earlier Australian Aviation interview that the -10s were mainly destined for Asia.

Thank you for the summary. My opinion is that the 787-10 is a true regional aircraft. Trying to cross the Pacific Ocean with it is fine, but the payload cannot be large.
 
ewt340
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:14 am

I wonder what their revenue cargo look like. Do they fly lots of revenue cargo between Auckland to LAX, SFO and Vancouver?

And do they really need to use B787-10 to Vancouver instead of B787-9?
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:41 am

ewt340 wrote:
I wonder what their revenue cargo look like. Do they fly lots of revenue cargo between Auckland to LAX, SFO and Vancouver?

And do they really need to use B787-10 to Vancouver instead of B787-9?

LAX and SFO yes. YVR - not as much.
Belly cargo makes up a bigger portion of NZs revenue than most other airlines.
 
smartplane
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:57 pm

NZ321 wrote:
New wings... stronger triple axle. Where is this coming from? Have you taken a look at Boeing lately? In my dreams I think I agree with you... but the practical reality is far from this in the near future. No upgraded capability of significance likely to be coming NZ's way in the guise of a 787 within NZ's delivery timeframe. If they need more than the 787-9 they are back to the 350 and 777x.

More capable 787's would see the 10 eat into the 779, and 9 into the 778 market space. That won't be permitted to happen unless some dramatic decisions are made in respect to the 77X.

Not unlike the dilemma Airbus has with unreleased A33NEO enhancements potentially squeezing the A350. The difference is politics - in Airbus the WB family is owned by a single management team, versus competition between 2 rivals in Boeing.
 
tealnz
Posts: 649
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:21 pm

Reality is we don’t have any authoritative inside information on Boeing’s decision-making on this. I think it was Ostrower who originally reported there was a 260t plan. But there has been conspicuously little corroboration of the sort you would expect if Boeing was talking to airlines generally about this. There could be technical or commercial factors in play or both - on top of their current distractions with 787 manufacturing and FAA issues.

My point really was that within a matter of months the NZ public line has shifted from “787-10s will replace the 77Ws” to “maybe we’ll bring the 77Ws back into service and just buy 789s”. Which is quite a change. Payload constraints with the -10s westbound out of US ports could well be a factor – after all, the original -10 announcement assumed that the 77Ws would remain in service for some years (and would have to be replaced by something more capable than a 787). Pandemic experience will have underlined the importance for the airline of cargo capacity and revenue too.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:17 am

smartplane wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
New wings... stronger triple axle. Where is this coming from? Have you taken a look at Boeing lately? In my dreams I think I agree with you... but the practical reality is far from this in the near future. No upgraded capability of significance likely to be coming NZ's way in the guise of a 787 within NZ's delivery timeframe. If they need more than the 787-9 they are back to the 350 and 777x.

More capable 787's would see the 10 eat into the 779, and 9 into the 778 market space. That won't be permitted to happen unless some dramatic decisions are made in respect to the 77X.

Not unlike the dilemma Airbus has with unreleased A33NEO enhancements potentially squeezing the A350. The difference is politics - in Airbus the WB family is owned by a single management team, versus competition between 2 rivals in Boeing.


I agree here with to much improvement to the 787 Boeing so risk the future of the 77X further. Much like Airbus have done with the A330NEO, not sure I get the Point of the A330NEO myself, kind of a budget A350 which if you don’t need an A350 is great, maybe not so great for airbus?

Back to NZ, they don’t need more capability than the 787, I wouldn’t be surprised at an entire long haul fleet of 789s but with 781s still an option long term, current 781 into Asia if demand warrants or a slightly improved ones that can do LAX/SFO-AKL.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8036
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:27 am

tealnz wrote:
Reality is we don’t have any authoritative inside information on Boeing’s decision-making on this. I think it was Ostrower who originally reported there was a 260t plan. But there has been conspicuously little corroboration of the sort you would expect if Boeing was talking to airlines generally about this. There could be technical or commercial factors in play or both - on top of their current distractions with 787 manufacturing and FAA issues.

My point really was that within a matter of months the NZ public line has shifted from “787-10s will replace the 77Ws” to “maybe we’ll bring the 77Ws back into service and just buy 789s”. Which is quite a change. Payload constraints with the -10s westbound out of US ports could well be a factor – after all, the original -10 announcement assumed that the 77Ws would remain in service for some years (and would have to be replaced by something more capable than a 787). Pandemic experience will have underlined the importance for the airline of cargo capacity and revenue too.


I think the reality is that NZ aren’t that confident in the market recovery or people flocking to NZ for holidays like they were before Covid and that NZ aren’t that confident about needing the 77W, I can’t read the article you posted. It will be a capex based decision on weather to bring the 77W back or retire them and take additional 787s, it will be another large write down on the 777 should they decide to retire them given they aren’t very old, possibly they will return the 3 leased ones and use the 4 owned ones if needed.

I’ll be honest and say I am still of the thought that NZ always planned on an all 787 long haul fleet, they took 12 787 options when they ordered the 781, sure they would have looked at other options, 77X and A350 but would have decided the 787 could cover their needs, A350 entire new type and 77X to big.

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