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Opus99
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Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:00 pm

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... c06fa152fb

Just came across this. I know NZ was going to look at an order for either the 350 or 777X to replace the 300ERs but this seems to have gone under the radar somehow because i've not seen a discussion on it.

The CFO made this statement: “In a world where we don’t need the 777-200s, if that’s the way it plays out, we can essentially use that new 787 order as 777-300 replacements,” Air New Zealand CFO Jeff McDowall said during a results presentation.

The Article goes on..."Instead the 787s could replace 777-300ERs that average eight years old, making them somewhat young for a mid-2020s retirement. The new 787s are due from 2023-2028. McDowall said Air New Zealand can “pace out the timing of those deliveries with the exit of the 777-300s.”"

NZ is also saying the 200ERs will not come back and they will essentially shrink and then have the -10s replace the 300ERs.

I'm not quite learned on the role the 300ERs play for NZ but....Thoughts?
Last edited by SQ22 on Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
Varsity1
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:10 pm

Boeing has stated they plan to raise the MTOW of the -10 by 13,000lb. It would allow AirNZ to operate AKL-LAX without penalty.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:43 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Boeing has stated they plan to raise the MTOW of the -10 by 13,000lb. It would allow AirNZ to operate AKL-LAX without penalty.

I guess for them that almost erases the need for the 77W. if it can carry a healthy load to LAX with no restrictions
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:47 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Boeing has stated they plan to raise the MTOW of the -10 by 13,000lb. It would allow AirNZ to operate AKL-LAX without penalty.

Can you post a link please? I’ve heard this rumoured ever since the NZ order for 787-10s but I’ve never seen any official confirmation this is in the works.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:47 pm

With 2-class config the 78X can reach 350 seats.
Seems like an acceptable 77W-replacement.

(NZ can also have a look at JL's A359 3-class config too)
 
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zkojq
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:52 pm

The 787-10s have been delayed, the chances of the 77Ws returning is probably marginal - two 77Ws have been returned to lessors.

The 77W has a very premium heavy configuration which is fantastic for full, high yielding flights to LAX, SFO and IAH but generally superfluous to the rest of the long haul network. I'd point out that until the pandemic, when 77Ws started being used for cargo runs to HKG, Air New Zealand had sent 77Ws to Asia on a grand total of five individual flights. Three of which were charters IIRC.

Given the fragmentation Air New Zealand's long haul market's have undergone over the past five years, you could argue that 77W sized aircraft aren't needed at all. On the other hand the pandemic may well have the effect of undoing much of that. It seems unlikely that the planned launch of EWR will happen in the next five years, though hopefully that will change for the better.

IMO there's every chance that the 787-10 order keeps getting kicked down the road before it eventually gets converted into -9s. There's probably going to need to be a -9 Config3 anyway for EWR though the airline would need to be confident that they could aggregate the premium traffic for that.
Last edited by zkojq on Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
migair54
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:58 pm

Antaras wrote:
With 2-class config the 78X can reach 350 seats.
Seems like an acceptable 77W-replacement.

(NZ can also have a look at JL's A359 3-class config too)


But they have a big difference in the cargo hold,
B781 has capacity for 40 LD3
B779 has capacity for 48 LD3

I don't know how much cargo ANZ uplifts but 8 LD3 containers could make a big difference.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:02 pm

frigatebird wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Boeing has stated they plan to raise the MTOW of the -10 by 13,000lb. It would allow AirNZ to operate AKL-LAX without penalty.

Can you post a link please? I’ve heard this rumoured ever since the NZ order for 787-10s but I’ve never seen any official confirmation this is in the works.


All we’ve seen is media confirming that Boeing is working on it. Especially alongside the NZ announcement of Boeing agreeing to optimise the -10

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... tas-deals/

Then we have Leeham stating that Boeing and GE are doing it.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/22/oppor ... -787-10er/

“As part of the Air New Zealand commitment to purchase eight Boeing 787-10s, Boeing and General Electric are increasing the maximum takeoff weight to add more range“

“It is worth noting that the 787-10 MTOW hike Boeing provided for Air New Zealand’s order adds one hour of flying time. Therefore, there is effectively only another hour of flying left to find for Boeing engineers in the 787-10 platform.“

I think it’s similar to what Airbus did with the 319T a350-1000. We never heard any confirmed word from them it was just media. They just one day upgraded their product brochure
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:16 pm

zkojq wrote:
The 787-10s have been delayed, the chances of the 77Ws returning is probably marginal - two 77Ws have been returned to lessors.

The 77W has a very premium heavy configuration which is fantastic for full, high yielding flights to LAX, SFO and IAH but generally superfluous to the rest of the long haul network. I'd point out that until the pandemic, when 77Ws started being used for cargo runs to HKG, Air New Zealand had sent 77Ws to Asia on a grand total of five individual flights. Three of which were charters IIRC.

Given the fragmentation Air New Zealand's long haul market's have undergone over the past five years, you could argue that 77W sized aircraft aren't needed at all. On the other hand the pandemic may well have the effect of undoing much of that. It seems unlikely that the planned launch of EWR will happen in the next five years, though hopefully that will change for the better.

IMO there's every chance that the 787-10 order keeps getting kicked down the road before it eventually gets converted into -9s. There's probably going to need to be a -9 Config3 anyway for EWR though the airline would need to be confident that they could aggregate the premium traffic for that.

By about 1 year. from late 2022 to 2023
 
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zkojq
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:24 pm

Opus99 wrote:
zkojq wrote:
The 787-10s have been delayed, the chances of the 77Ws returning is probably marginal - two 77Ws have been returned to lessors.

The 77W has a very premium heavy configuration which is fantastic for full, high yielding flights to LAX, SFO and IAH but generally superfluous to the rest of the long haul network. I'd point out that until the pandemic, when 77Ws started being used for cargo runs to HKG, Air New Zealand had sent 77Ws to Asia on a grand total of five individual flights. Three of which were charters IIRC.

Given the fragmentation Air New Zealand's long haul market's have undergone over the past five years, you could argue that 77W sized aircraft aren't needed at all. On the other hand the pandemic may well have the effect of undoing much of that. It seems unlikely that the planned launch of EWR will happen in the next five years, though hopefully that will change for the better.

IMO there's every chance that the 787-10 order keeps getting kicked down the road before it eventually gets converted into -9s. There's probably going to need to be a -9 Config3 anyway for EWR though the airline would need to be confident that they could aggregate the premium traffic for that.

By about 1 year. from late 2022 to 2023


I strongly doubt that this will be the last time the order is delayed.

Hopefully not but there is a huge amount of uncertainty for Air New Zealand currently.
 
zkncj
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:28 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I'm not quite learned on the role the 300ERs play for NZ but....Thoughts?


The 77W (pre covid) did long-haul by night (AKL-LAX, LAX-LHR, AKL-SFO). By day they were allocated for to the short haul network and would be regulars on AKL-SYD/BNE/MEL also seasonally on NAN/RAR services.

The 781 would be much more flexible, with fleet spending half its time on short haul duties.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:39 pm

zkncj wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I'm not quite learned on the role the 300ERs play for NZ but....Thoughts?


The 77W (pre covid) did long-haul by night (AKL-LAX, LAX-LHR, AKL-SFO). By day they were allocated for to the short haul network and would be regulars on AKL-SYD/BNE/MEL also seasonally on NAN/RAR services.

The 781 would be much more flexible, with fleet spending half its time on short haul duties.

Yes, the 78X should be able to handle that easily especially with the MTOW bump
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:04 pm

I think if you know NZ this isn’t new, to me it makes total sense, others would say the 787-10 falls short on freight but I think for the sake of a bit of freight they would rather have an all 787 long haul fleet and to me this has always been the plan, obviously now with a smaller fleet than pre Covid. UA were using early 787-10s SFO-AKL in NW19/20, which did I believe not carry to much freight but for UA they replaced the 77W which was slightly to big or the -10 is that much more efficient for that particular route.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:40 pm

Wouldn't the landing gear be maxed out for the -10? As it is the case with the B777?
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:05 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Wouldn't the landing gear be maxed out for the -10? As it is the case with the B777?

It seems like 260 is the absolute MAX they can get out of the 789/10
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:24 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Wouldn't the landing gear be maxed out for the -10? As it is the case with the B777?

It seems like 260 is the absolute MAX they can get out of the 789/10


According to wiki (I know, but I am lazy), the MTOW of the 787-9 and 787-10 560,000 lb / 254,011 kg, so that would mean they still have 40.000lb/ 5.989kg to play with before the structural limits of the gear is reached? So plus 13.000lb is doable?
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:50 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Wouldn't the landing gear be maxed out for the -10? As it is the case with the B777?

It seems like 260 is the absolute MAX they can get out of the 789/10


According to wiki (I know, but I am lazy), the MTOW of the 787-9 and 787-10 560,000 lb / 254,011 kg, so that would mean they still have 40.000lb/ 5.989kg to play with before the structural limits of the gear is reached? So plus 13.000lb is doable?

It seems like it is, that seems to be the target MTOW at the moment
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:23 pm

frigatebird wrote:
Can you post a link please? I’ve heard this rumoured ever since the NZ order for 787-10s but I’ve never seen any official confirmation this is in the works.


There has been absolutely nothing from the manufacturer regarding this, and even when the NZ order came out NZ didn’t even confirm it. All that was mentioned was a slight improvement from the GEnx.

The NZ order had from memory options for up to 20 787s with purchases, options and substitution rights that can be tailored for a changing economic climate and growth opportunities. I think they will down gauge US flights to 787-9s. The 787-10 is not capable of US flights.

I think the 777 fleet will be retired completely, and that is the way others are thinking

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 0d305552fb
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:42 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Just came across this. I know NZ was going to look at an order for either the 350 or 777X to replace the 300ERs but this seems to have gone under the radar somehow because i've not seen a discussion on it.

I was saying the 787 was going to replace the 777W for the last 2 years. It is good to see that I am right.

This 2 year old thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1423399

RJMAZ wrote:
Air New Zealand has 9 777-200ER's and 8 777-300ER's. So this order of 8 787-10's and 12 787-9 options is also replacing the 777W fleet next decade. The options are to get delivery slots.

People often think aircraft get replaced by the model that is the closest in floor area and range, this is very rarely the case.


Again in this tech ops thread 2 years ago: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1411693&p=21146681

RJMAZ wrote:
As I said previously the 787 will also replace the 777-300ER's based on the options.

The 787-10 can easily do 75% of the 777-300ER routes. The longest routes and the new ultra long haul routes will go to the 787-9.

I hear it time and time that a certain aircraft won't get purchased because it will be a downgrade or upgrade in size. That plays a very small part to the decision.

The only time you want to keep a large aircraft is if you have limited landing slots at a mega hub. New Zealand will be opening up new North American routes so there is less priority on the Los Angeles flight being as big as possible.


zeke wrote:
The 787-10 is not capable of US flights.

Auckland to Los Angeles is only 5670nm. The 787-10 regularly operates routes that long. The whole south west of the USA is within reach of the 787-10. The 787-9 will be used for the longer routes.

Auckland to New York is actually 150nm shorter than Perth to London comfortablly operated by Qantas. Granted Air New Zealand's current 787-9 fleet has a higher density cabin but I heard a rumour that two ultra long haul routes might have a premium cabin.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:59 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
I was saying the 787 was going to replace the 777W for the last 2 years. It is good to see that I am right.


And you were clearly wrong at the time, NZ specifically stated at the time that was not the case.

“Our intention at this stage is that when the 777-300s come up for replacement towards the mid-to-late 2020s . . . that would be the logical time when we will probably want to look at a larger aircraft. The A350s and the Boeing 777Xs come into the frame.”

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... 787-order/

You didn’t predict the global pandemic.

RJMAZ wrote:
Auckland to Los Angeles is only 5670nm. The 787-10 regularly operates routes that long. The whole south west of the USA is within reach of the 787-10. The 787-9 will be used for the longer routes.


Jayunited has talked about this on many threads on this site, UA did operate the 787-10 to AKL WITHOUT CARGO and often with blocked seats. This is a heavy cargo route for NZ which makes the 787-10 unable to perform those flights.
Last edited by zeke on Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:02 am

RJMAZ wrote:

Auckland to New York is actually 150nm shorter than Perth to London comfortablly operated by Qantas. Granted Air New Zealand's current 787-9 fleet has a higher density cabin but I heard a rumour that two ultra long haul routes might have a premium cabin.


I see you edited your post to include this.

The 787-9 only barely does LHR-PER and is significantly restricted on what it can take.

NZ have mentioned a heavy premium configuration for the 787-9 to JFK in 2019, that I think is very low on their priority list now. I think they will just down gauge the 777-300ER down to the 787-9 for west coast USA flights.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:11 am

Dutchy wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Wouldn't the landing gear be maxed out for the -10? As it is the case with the B777?

It seems like 260 is the absolute MAX they can get out of the 789/10


According to wiki (I know, but I am lazy), the MTOW of the 787-9 and 787-10 560,000 lb / 254,011 kg, so that would mean they still have 40.000lb/ 5.989kg to play with before the structural limits of the gear is reached? So plus 13.000lb is doable?

First, I have no verifiable facts:
1. The weight increase to 260t is much more specific. There should be an idea, but I wouldn't bet anything.
2. There is weight to be removed from the 787-10. Now some will go back with a MTOW increase, but overall, I expect a small (say 500kg) weight reduction.

As much as I would like to see 260t, I have heard rumors 258t is the limit. Now, no one violated a NDA, but as much as I'd like to see 4t more fuel, I'm hearing 2.5t. Or about another half hour of flight, perhaps 35 minutes.

I am hearing GE is working software for a PiP similar to the select Two, but I'm not hearing any earth shattering numbers (say 1/6%, or 10nm, not a game changer). The GEnX is a software beast, it can be (slightly) improved.

I want the variable Turbine cooling from the LEAP/GE9x, but I haven't heard anything on that. That would be 2.25% or so or 140nm to 150nm more range.

So I hear about 500kg (about 0.25% improvement) an engine software PiP (at most 0.17%, probably a little less). Plus 2.5t fuel. I can squint my eyes and see 6700nm range.

AKL-LAX is 6400sm, so 6700nm allows some cargo, but not 77W levels.

I like the plan for AKL-IAH, but even if what I am hearing is pessimistic, it would take more.

I don't doubt ANZ will retire the 77Ws early. :cry2:

Now what?

Lightsaber
 
JohanTally
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:21 am

Do we know what the software changes that UA is implementing on their 789s consist of? It says it will increase thrust and improve the fuel management system which makes you wonder if other airlines already have these upgrades or could they be the same improvement NZ was planning on getting in their new 78Js.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:29 am

zeke wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
I was saying the 787 was going to replace the 777W for the last 2 years. It is good to see that I am right.


And you were clearly wrong at the time, NZ specifically stated at the time that was not the case.

“Our intention at this stage is that when the 777-300s come up for replacement towards the mid-to-late 2020s . . . that would be the logical time when we will probably want to look at a larger aircraft. The A350s and the Boeing 777Xs come into the frame.”

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... 787-order/

You didn’t predict the global pandemic.

RJMAZ wrote:
Auckland to Los Angeles is only 5670nm. The 787-10 regularly operates routes that long. The whole south west of the USA is within reach of the 787-10. The 787-9 will be used for the longer routes.


Jayunited has talked about this on many threads on this site, UA did operate the 787-10 to AKL WITHOUT CARGO and often with blocked seats. This is a heavy cargo route for NZ which makes the 787-10 unable to perform those flights.

So why would ANZ elude to the fact that they have worked with Boeing to allow the 787-10 to fly to all routes that the 200ER operates. when the 200ER ALSO operated LAX. Or maybe they lied?
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:39 am

zeke wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Can you post a link please? I’ve heard this rumoured ever since the NZ order for 787-10s but I’ve never seen any official confirmation this is in the works.


There has been absolutely nothing from the manufacturer regarding this, and even when the NZ order came out NZ didn’t even confirm it. All that was mentioned was a slight improvement from the GEnx.

The NZ order had from memory options for up to 20 787s with purchases, options and substitution rights that can be tailored for a changing economic climate and growth opportunities. I think they will down gauge US flights to 787-9s. The 787-10 is not capable of US flights.

I think the 777 fleet will be retired completely, and that is the way others are thinking

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 0d305552fb

There has been nothing from the manufacturer and so? multiple have confirmed from insiders they are working on an MTOW Bump. is it everything they must announce as soon as they've decided on it or do you think it's a lie? and EIS is still 3 years away. Boeing did not announce the last 77W 2016 PIP until 2015, when do you think they started working on it? please. how else will the jet be able to handle all the 77Es routes
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:41 am

zeke wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:

Auckland to New York is actually 150nm shorter than Perth to London comfortablly operated by Qantas. Granted Air New Zealand's current 787-9 fleet has a higher density cabin but I heard a rumour that two ultra long haul routes might have a premium cabin.


I see you edited your post to include this.

The 787-9 only barely does LHR-PER and is significantly restricted on what it can take.

NZ have mentioned a heavy premium configuration for the 787-9 to JFK in 2019, that I think is very low on their priority list now. I think they will just down gauge the 777-300ER down to the 787-9 for west coast USA flights.


If NZ sees significant value in fleet commonality it's not going to chase the 'perfect' aircraft for every route - a move that is very costly in parts duplication and pilot work groups.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:56 am

lightsaber wrote:
AKL-LAX is 6400sm, so 6700nm allows some cargo, but not 77W levels.


Which units are you working with ? intermixing sm and nm in the same sentence.

Flight plans I have run in the past for the 787-10 over LAX-AKL indicated maximum payload of around 32 tonnes, the plans were indicating an average headwind of 15 kts, alternate of CHC which is around 1:10 from AKL, additional mandatory EDTO fuel of 20 minutes for oxygen, plus contingency fuel. The 787-9 would do the same trip with around 38 tonnes of payload.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:16 am

Opus99 wrote:
So why would ANZ elude to the fact that they have worked with Boeing to allow the 787-10 to fly to all routes that the 200ER operates. when the 200ER ALSO operated LAX. Or maybe they lied?


They never did say “fly to all routes that the 200ER” for example they never stated the 787-10 would operate 77E flights like Chicago and Huston. In Australian aviation about 6 months after the MOU was signed they stated the aircraft would be used to Asia.

Opus99 wrote:
There has been nothing from the manufacturer and so? multiple have confirmed from insiders they are working on an MTOW Bump. is it everything they must announce as soon as they've decided on it or do you think it's a lie? and EIS is still 3 years away. Boeing did not announce the last 77W 2016 PIP until 2015, when do you think they started working on it? please. how else will the jet be able to handle all the 77Es routes


They never stated the 787-10 would handle all the 777-200ER routes.

This is a fact based discussion forum, rumors and speculation MUST to stated as such and not passed off as fact, look at your OP you have passed it off as fact. And another poster challenged you on it because it has never been confirmed. The has been nothing from Boeing or other operators (including NZ) to indicate this is being offered.

The obvious question is if this was on the table, why haven’t other operators ordered it ?

When the 280 MTOW increase came to the A359, many operators went for it and it was confirmed by Airbus and many operators, and that happened years before EIS.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:24 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
So why would ANZ elude to the fact that they have worked with Boeing to allow the 787-10 to fly to all routes that the 200ER operates. when the 200ER ALSO operated LAX. Or maybe they lied?


They never did say “fly to all routes that the 200ER” for example they never stated the 787-10 would operate 77E flights like Chicago and Huston. In Australian aviation about 6 months after the MOU was signed they stated the aircraft would be used to Asia.

Opus99 wrote:
There has been nothing from the manufacturer and so? multiple have confirmed from insiders they are working on an MTOW Bump. is it everything they must announce as soon as they've decided on it or do you think it's a lie? and EIS is still 3 years away. Boeing did not announce the last 77W 2016 PIP until 2015, when do you think they started working on it? please. how else will the jet be able to handle all the 77Es routes


They never stated the 787-10 would handle all the 777-200ER routes.

This is a fact based discussion forum, rumors and speculation MUST to stated as such and not passed off as fact, look at your OP you have passed it off as fact. And another poster challenged you on it because it has never been confirmed. The has been nothing from Boeing or other operators (including NZ) to indicate this is being offered.

The obvious question is if this was on the table, why haven’t other operators ordered it ?

When the 280 MTOW increase came to the A359, many operators went for it and it was confirmed by Airbus and many operators, and that happened years before EIS.

In Jon ostrowers article on this topic he makes reference to lessors that are lining up their deliveries to take advantage of the higher weight option. Article is upthread.

On second look they said Routes similar to the 200ER.

But please what is NZ referring to in their eluded to by working with Boeing to ensure the -10 will fly missions to the 200ER, which for them was the "game changer". The floor is yours. I even replied the poster above to say we have not heard from Boeing only multiple media sources which i linked. But please let us know the insight you have

Also since NZ ordered, Korean, ANA and Untied have ordered the -10. Does that include the Update? I don't know but because they didn't say so, does not mean they did not. When airbus changed the winglet on the A359 did any airline announce they have ordered it because of the winglet. It was already a super jet
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:15 am

Opus99 wrote:
In Jon ostrowers article on this topic he makes reference to lessors that are lining up their deliveries to take advantage of the higher weight option. Article is upthread.

On second look they said Routes similar to the 200ER.

But please what is NZ referring to in their eluded to by working with Boeing to ensure the -10 will fly missions to the 200ER, which for them was the "game changer". The floor is yours. I even replied the poster above to say we have not heard from Boeing only multiple media sources which i linked. But please let us know the insight you have

Also since NZ ordered, Korean, ANA and Untied have ordered the -10. Does that include the Update? I don't know but because they didn't say so, does not mean they did not. When airbus changed the winglet on the A359 did any airline announce they have ordered it because of the winglet. It was already a super jet


Lots of words however again without facts. NZ said the 787-10 would replace the 777-200ER, they never stated it would replace the same routes.

The exact quote from the Boeing press release was

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.”

From https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-05-26 ... ure-Growth

I would ask you look back in history where NZ also said the 787-9 would replace the 767, has the 787-9 only fly 767 routes ? The answer is no.

The NZ 787-10 MOU was clearly stated as being up to 20 aircraft which can be swapped between 787-9 and 787-10, and deliveries could be changed in line with business requirements. It is entirely possible under the MOU that no 787-10s be delivered, or 20, it could also mean 20 787-9s, or just 8 more 787-9s in total.

Yes it is entirely possible for them to down gauge the 777 to 787, however statements trying to suggest the 787-10 can replace the longer sectors the 777 was doing is false.

The 787-9 can cover that network and more, pre COVID NZ even gave an indication at one stage they would start NYC before the orders came in.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:19 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
In Jon ostrowers article on this topic he makes reference to lessors that are lining up their deliveries to take advantage of the higher weight option. Article is upthread.

On second look they said Routes similar to the 200ER.

But please what is NZ referring to in their eluded to by working with Boeing to ensure the -10 will fly missions to the 200ER, which for them was the "game changer". The floor is yours. I even replied the poster above to say we have not heard from Boeing only multiple media sources which i linked. But please let us know the insight you have

Also since NZ ordered, Korean, ANA and Untied have ordered the -10. Does that include the Update? I don't know but because they didn't say so, does not mean they did not. When airbus changed the winglet on the A359 did any airline announce they have ordered it because of the winglet. It was already a super jet


Lots of words however again without facts. NZ said the 787-10 would replace the 777-200ER, they never stated it would replace the same routes.

The exact quote from the Boeing press release was

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.”

From https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-05-26 ... ure-Growth

I would ask you look back in history where NZ also said the 787-9 would replace the 767, has the 787-9 only fly 767 routes ? The answer is no.

The NZ 787-10 MOU was clearly stated as being up to 20 aircraft which can be swapped between 787-9 and 787-10, and deliveries could be changed in line with business requirements. It is entirely possible under the MOU that no 787-10s be delivered, or 20, it could also mean 20 787-9s, or just 8 more 787-9s in total.

Yes it is entirely possible for them to down gauge the 777 to 787, however statements trying to suggest the 787-10 can replace the longer sectors the 777 was doing is false.

The 787-9 can cover that network and more, pre COVID NZ even gave an indication at one stage they would start NYC before the orders came in.

This back and forth is exhausting...(as usual) let’s see what happens. You’ve still not answered what the point of working with Boeing to achieve similar capabilities to their 209 fleet. Maybe they wanted the similar capabilities for fun and games. Please. Let’s just see what happens
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:42 am

Opus99 wrote:
This back and forth is exhausting...(as usual) let’s see what happens. You’ve still not answered what the point of working with Boeing to achieve similar capabilities to their 209 fleet. Maybe they wanted the similar capabilities for fun and games. Please. Let’s just see what happens


The problem is you are adding or removing words from what was actually said which changes the meaning completely.

For example they didn’t say “achieve similar capabilities”. When you say that to me means the same range AND payload, not just passenger numbers.

They also never said at any stage their “network needs” would ONLY be achieved with the 787-10, they went to some depth over various channels including annual reports and investor relations, press releases to state the MOU was flexible to swap between the -9 and -10, and between 8-20 aircraft.

That means they could say let’s go with 12 787-9s to replace the grounded 77E/77W and leave 8 options for 787-10s for later when things recover after covid. That would be a very smart move in my book.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:15 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
This back and forth is exhausting...(as usual) let’s see what happens. You’ve still not answered what the point of working with Boeing to achieve similar capabilities to their 209 fleet. Maybe they wanted the similar capabilities for fun and games. Please. Let’s just see what happens


The problem is you are adding or removing words from what was actually said which changes the meaning completely.

For example they didn’t say “achieve similar capabilities”. When you say that to me means the same range AND payload, not just passenger numbers.

They also never said at any stage their “network needs” would ONLY be achieved with the 787-10, they went to some depth over various channels including annual reports and investor relations, press releases to state the MOU was flexible to swap between the -9 and -10, and between 8-20 aircraft.

That means they could say let’s go with 12 787-9s to replace the grounded 77E/77W and leave 8 options for 787-10s for later when things recover after covid. That would be a very smart move in my book.

Interpret it anyway you like
 
tullamarine
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:37 am

Dutchy wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Wouldn't the landing gear be maxed out for the -10? As it is the case with the B777?

It seems like 260 is the absolute MAX they can get out of the 789/10


According to wiki (I know, but I am lazy), the MTOW of the 787-9 and 787-10 560,000 lb / 254,011 kg, so that would mean they still have 40.000lb/ 5.989kg to play with before the structural limits of the gear is reached? So plus 13.000lb is doable?

5,989kg is 13,203lb not 40,000.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
I want the variable Turbine cooling from the LEAP/GE9x, but I haven't heard anything on that. That would be 2.25% or so or 140nm to 150nm more range.


I have no clue what you are talking about, but 2,25% decrease in fuel consumption is a lot, could make the plane a lot more attractive for airlines and thus GE / Boeing could sell the plane for more. So why isn't it implemented if it has so much potential.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:02 am

zeke wrote:
Yes it is entirely possible for them to down gauge the 777 to 787, however statements trying to suggest the 787-10 can replace the longer sectors the 777 was doing is false.

Is this directed at me?

No one said the 787-10 would replace the 777 longer sectors. The 787 as a family will replace the 777.

And I quote.

RJMAZ wrote:
As I said previously the 787 will also replace the 777-300ER's based on the options.

The 787-10 can easily do 75% of the 777-300ER routes. The longest routes and the new ultra long haul routes will go to the 787-9.


On the current Air New Zealand routes flown we have:

Vancouver 6,130nm
San Francisco 5,676nm
Los Angeles 5,670nm
Bangkok 5,170nm
Shanghai 5,046nm
Tokyo 4,776nm

Vancouver would be a route that would operate the 787-9. The 6,430nm brochure range of the 787-10 allows it to comfortably do San Francisco and Los Angeles with a full brochure load of 330 passengers. Of course this is with no extra revenue payload in the belly.

If Air New Zealand needed to regularly transport extra freight to Los Angeles then a 787-9 could be used. Air New Zealand aren't going to operate a second aircraft type with all of the costs involved just for extra freight revenue on one route.

The goal was always to be streamlined single widebody type airline. Paying lip service to Airbus will help get the best 787 price.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:24 am

RJMAZ wrote:
No one said the 787-10 would replace the 777 longer sectors.


Read this thread for examples, direct your comments to those who have.

RJMAZ wrote:
As I said previously the 787 will also replace the 777-300ER's based on the options.


And pre-COVID NZ said that was not the case, quote provide above.

RJMAZ wrote:
Vancouver would be a route that would operate the 787-9. The 6,430nm brochure range of the 787-10 allows it to comfortably do San Francisco and Los Angeles with a full brochure load of 330 passengers. Of course this is with no extra revenue payload in the belly.

If Air New Zealand needed to regularly transport extra freight to Los Angeles then a 787-9 could be used. Air New Zealand aren't going to operate a second aircraft type with all of the costs involved just for extra freight revenue on one route.

The goal was always to be streamlined single widebody type airline. Paying lip service to Airbus will help get the best 787 price.


Brochure ranges are based upon ISA, no wind, non EDTO, and 200 nm alternate.

Today, SFO-AKL which is not unusual
ISA+10 average
15 kts headwind average
20 minutes additional mandatory fuel required for EDTO
Alternate CHC 400+ nm

Hence the brochure range is meaningless on such a city pair.

As for cargo, pre-COVID airspace (https://airspaceas.com/carrier-portfoli ... w-zealand/) was selling 24 tonnes a day LAX-AKL cargo capacity, 787-10 total payload available today LAX-AKL is around 32 tonnes. Hence the 787-10 would not be able to replace the 77W. That is why NZ has stated previously that the 77X/A350 were being looked at for the 77W replacement well into the future.
 
zkncj
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:08 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
In Jon ostrowers article on this topic he makes reference to lessors that are lining up their deliveries to take advantage of the higher weight option. Article is upthread.

On second look they said Routes similar to the 200ER.

But please what is NZ referring to in their eluded to by working with Boeing to ensure the -10 will fly missions to the 200ER, which for them was the "game changer". The floor is yours. I even replied the poster above to say we have not heard from Boeing only multiple media sources which i linked. But please let us know the insight you have

Also since NZ ordered, Korean, ANA and Untied have ordered the -10. Does that include the Update? I don't know but because they didn't say so, does not mean they did not. When airbus changed the winglet on the A359 did any airline announce they have ordered it because of the winglet. It was already a super jet


Lots of words however again without facts. NZ said the 787-10 would replace the 777-200ER, they never stated it would replace the same routes.

The exact quote from the Boeing press release was

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.”

From https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-05-26 ... ure-Growth

I would ask you look back in history where NZ also said the 787-9 would replace the 767, has the 787-9 only fly 767 routes ? The answer is no.

The NZ 787-10 MOU was clearly stated as being up to 20 aircraft which can be swapped between 787-9 and 787-10, and deliveries could be changed in line with business requirements. It is entirely possible under the MOU that no 787-10s be delivered, or 20, it could also mean 20 787-9s, or just 8 more 787-9s in total.

Yes it is entirely possible for them to down gauge the 777 to 787, however statements trying to suggest the 787-10 can replace the longer sectors the 777 was doing is false.

The 787-9 can cover that network and more, pre COVID NZ even gave an indication at one stage they would start NYC before the orders came in.


I’m half expecting that some of the 20 787 options will go towards replacing some of the older 789s towards 2028-2030.

Keeping in mind that NZ currently has some the oldest 789s in operation. They have an couple of 789s which were the Boeing test aircraft, which are around 4 years older than the first deliverd 789.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:09 am

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/08/28/air-new-zealand-mulls-dreamliner-only-fleet-to-meet-covid-horror-for-long-haul-travel/?sh=55c06fa152fb
NZ is also saying the 200ERs will not come back and they will essentially shrink and then have the -10s replace the 300ERs.

I'm not quite learned on the role the 300ERs play for NZ but....Thoughts?


I think its pretty likely that NZ will move to a fleet of 787-9s and 787-10s exclusively for widebody.

We all know the long-term trend is fragmentation (smaller planes at higher frequencies). Auckland Airport isn't currently slot restricted to my knowledge, so frequency-growth is viable. We all know fleet simplification reduces various costs, too. In addition, NZ's execs have said that they worked with Boeing on making sure that the 787-10 will be able to perform routes "similar to" the ones currently flown by the 777-200ERs.

To be frank, I think a 789/7810 fleet is perfect for NZ. 787-10 to big Pacific destinations (incl. LAX and SFO). 787-9s in 3 different density configurations can handle the rest. It would be fantastically consistent and very efficient.
 
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zeke
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:27 am

zkncj wrote:
I’m half expecting that some of the 20 787 options will go towards replacing some of the older 789s towards 2028-2030.

Keeping in mind that NZ currently has some the oldest 789s in operation. They have an couple of 789s which were the Boeing test aircraft, which are around 4 years older than the first deliverd 789.


That is a very good point, do you know how many of them would be owned vs leased ?

For engine commonality it would make sense to replace them also.
 
Sokes
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:44 am

One size fits all. That's beautiful.
 
NZ321
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:07 pm

zeke wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Can you post a link please? I’ve heard this rumoured ever since the NZ order for 787-10s but I’ve never seen any official confirmation this is in the works.


There has been absolutely nothing from the manufacturer regarding this, and even when the NZ order came out NZ didn’t even confirm it. All that was mentioned was a slight improvement from the GEnx.

The NZ order had from memory options for up to 20 787s with purchases, options and substitution rights that can be tailored for a changing economic climate and growth opportunities. I think they will down gauge US flights to 787-9s. The 787-10 is not capable of US flights.

I think the 777 fleet will be retired completely, and that is the way others are thinking

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 0d305552fb


Exactamondo Zeke. All has been very quiet to this point.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:39 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/08/28/air-new-zealand-mulls-dreamliner-only-fleet-to-meet-covid-horror-for-long-haul-travel/?sh=55c06fa152fb
NZ is also saying the 200ERs will not come back and they will essentially shrink and then have the -10s replace the 300ERs.

I'm not quite learned on the role the 300ERs play for NZ but....Thoughts?


I think its pretty likely that NZ will move to a fleet of 787-9s and 787-10s exclusively for widebody.

We all know the long-term trend is fragmentation (smaller planes at higher frequencies). Auckland Airport isn't currently slot restricted to my knowledge, so frequency-growth is viable. We all know fleet simplification reduces various costs, too. In addition, NZ's execs have said that they worked with Boeing on making sure that the 787-10 will be able to perform routes "similar to" the ones currently flown by the 777-200ERs.

To be frank, I think a 789/7810 fleet is perfect for NZ. 787-10 to big Pacific destinations (incl. LAX and SFO). 787-9s in 3 different density configurations can handle the rest. It would be fantastically consistent and very efficient.

Exactly
 
migair54
Posts: 2491
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:48 pm

zeke wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
No one said the 787-10 would replace the 777 longer sectors.


Read this thread for examples, direct your comments to those who have.

RJMAZ wrote:
As I said previously the 787 will also replace the 777-300ER's based on the options.


And pre-COVID NZ said that was not the case, quote provide above.

RJMAZ wrote:
Vancouver would be a route that would operate the 787-9. The 6,430nm brochure range of the 787-10 allows it to comfortably do San Francisco and Los Angeles with a full brochure load of 330 passengers. Of course this is with no extra revenue payload in the belly.

If Air New Zealand needed to regularly transport extra freight to Los Angeles then a 787-9 could be used. Air New Zealand aren't going to operate a second aircraft type with all of the costs involved just for extra freight revenue on one route.

The goal was always to be streamlined single widebody type airline. Paying lip service to Airbus will help get the best 787 price.


Brochure ranges are based upon ISA, no wind, non EDTO, and 200 nm alternate.

Today, SFO-AKL which is not unusual
ISA+10 average
15 kts headwind average
20 minutes additional mandatory fuel required for EDTO
Alternate CHC 400+ nm

Hence the brochure range is meaningless on such a city pair.

As for cargo, pre-COVID airspace (https://airspaceas.com/carrier-portfoli ... w-zealand/) was selling 24 tonnes a day LAX-AKL cargo capacity, 787-10 total payload available today LAX-AKL is around 32 tonnes. Hence the 787-10 would not be able to replace the 77W. That is why NZ has stated previously that the 77X/A350 were being looked at for the 77W replacement well into the future.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:38 pm

Dutchy wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I want the variable Turbine cooling from the LEAP/GE9x, but I haven't heard anything on that. That would be 2.25% or so or 140nm to 150nm more range.

I have no clue what you are talking about, but 2,25% decrease in fuel consumption is a lot, could make the plane a lot more attractive for airlines and thus GE / Boeing could sell the plane for more. So why isn't it implemented if it has so much potential.

I would think in the current climate with wide bodies not flying many miles GE's not getting revenue from spares sales and other services and their biggest concern is to conserve cash. I suppose they could be doing a paper exercise (ok, computer exercise) to move the variable turbine cooling to GeNX but then the big gate is when it comes time to spend the money to gather all the required data points, put the engines onto flying test beds, buying machinery to make the required parts at the required scale for the GeNX family, etc.

Keep in mind GE has put out a LOT of cash for GE9X and expected to see revenue from 2019 or so, but it was their screw up on "durability" that cause at least one year of that slip.

Bottom line: IMO GE is looking to conserve cash for at least the next two years, maybe more, so we won't see a PIP that requires new hardware to be designed/tested/manufactured in that time frame.

Given this is the case, they would not want to pre-announce anything.

Also, with regard to the wide body market their main competitor is RR, and they too are in cash conservation mode.

Neither GE or RR want to rock the boat right about now.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:50 pm

Imo Boeing won't do any MTOW bumps for the 787-10 in the near future simply so that they can try and protect the 777-9. The 777-9 is struggling badly enough as it is and the last thing that the program needs is for existing customers to convert their orders into 787-10"ER"s. The 787-10 is lighter and more efficient than the 777-9 but it has much less range. If that range deficit is reduced then the business case for the 777-9 is further reduced.


The last thing that Boeing needs right now is for someone like Emirates or Qatar to convert 40 777-9 orders to 787-10s.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:51 pm

I appreciate that NZ is a small airline, but many airlines have chosen the A350/787 combination. It seems like neither the -9 or-10 are ideal for the NZ-US network based on payload/range capabilities. The A350 seems a good fit for NZ to replace the 777 fleet, if cargo really is an important part of the equation for NZ. The advantages of commonality might outweigh the abilities of the A350. If they stick with a solely 787 fleet, the -10 is likely to mainly see Asia service and the -9 USA. They can always increase the frequencies, although depending on demand that might not even be necessary.
 
zkncj
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering 78X for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:52 pm

zeke wrote:
zkncj wrote:
I’m half expecting that some of the 20 787 options will go towards replacing some of the older 789s towards 2028-2030.

Keeping in mind that NZ currently has some the oldest 789s in operation. They have an couple of 789s which were the Boeing test aircraft, which are around 4 years older than the first deliverd 789.


That is a very good point, do you know how many of them would be owned vs leased ?

For engine commonality it would make sense to replace them also.


My understanding that only ZK-NZQ and ZK-NZR are leased the reset of the fleet is owned, unless any have been sold durring covid.

ZK-NZC and ZK-NZD are both already 7.5 years old, both being 2013 units.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1926
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:00 pm

This whole discussion is predicated on the assumption that what NZ said about possible uses for the 787-10 pre-pandemic is still valid right now. I’d suggest that the situation is highly fluid and that we can draw no conclusions from the scraps of information we have “officially“ on the subject. The shape of NZ’s route network and the levels of frequency that will be sustainable post-pandemic are still far from clear. In particular, the level of business travel that will occur in future is a big unknown - many businesses have found that they can get along just fine with much less travel, and the cost savings may be quite compelling. This could have a major impact on the network, frequencies and configuration of the international fleet in the medium to long term.

In the meantime, let’s speculate by all means, but we can all save ourselves much angst and frustration by being less dogmatic about what “will“ happen. The truth is that we just don’t know.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Air New Zealand Considering Recent 787 Order to be used for 77W Replacement

Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:21 pm

I am guessing AZ CFO is making decisions on data he has, not based on popular opinions on a.net.

We debated this ad nauseam, there are several efficient options available to airlines unlike when 77W was announced.

Upsizing or supersizing are the most unlikely options in current market conditions.

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