morrisond wrote:FiscAutTecGarte wrote:Revelation wrote:Large pricing advantage will only come after spending the $billions to get that new production method up and running at full production volume across the supply chain. The 3-5% gain can be addressed by a new wing for Team A. The transition period will be fraught with peril for Team B. Customers will stop buying MAX once they know Boeing is moving on from it. 787, MAX and now 777X gives customers a lot of reasons to wonder if Boeing can deliver on a clean sheet or not. It would take giant cajones for an executive to decide to be in the front of the line to get what IMO will largely be a "me too" product. The transition time would be perfect for Team A to steal some key customers. Tell them that B is leaving them stranded because no money will be spent on MAX, meanwhile A can sell the current product as a known quantity at sharp prices while making a much smaller transition to a new wing while keeping the rest of the supply chain in place.
Everything you are saying here has been true for Boeing for the last 10+ years (except we have the added MAX tragedies and 777X delays to further erode investor/customer confidence). Boeing can't keep kicking the can down the road with respect to everything smaller than the 787-9. They just have to build a better 'me-too' plane.
There have been two planes that have been expecially challenging for Boeing to compete against in the last 15 years... They were the A330 and the A320. They addressed the A330 head on, realizing the 767 couldn't do it, they went clean sheet. Man it was painful, but the worst is behind.. 787 is a good plane... and it will be even better when it's significantly improved as a NG/ER whatever followup. They need to address the A320 (especially the A321) head on... still... The MAX can't do it, they need to go clean sheet. Can't take an MD approach and go DC9,MD80,MD90 with the same plane to compete indefinitely in that market..... Can no longer take the usual approach of Jurrasic, Classic, NG, and MAX with the same plane to compete indefinitely in that market either.
Again, Airbus did such a great job defining the A330 and A320, that Boeing was always going to have eventually launch new programs to compete in those segments. Boeing was always going to isolate 737 operators and always going to be vulnerable to Airbus doing incremental improvements on the A320. At some point you just have to do it. Imagine if they had done it instead of wasting time on the 748?
Yes, they need to place the parked frames... yes they need to build and deliver on the backlog... But does anyone believe that backlog will even be halfway built out?... honestly... Boeing admits that to themselves, they will be able to stomach moving on to build a fantastic me too plane.
Clean Sheet Single Aisle program.. built with curent tech: GTF engines w/ leap materials tech, bleedless engines, electrical tech for subsystems, folding wingtips, integrated center tanks, carbon fibre, big windows, containers in the hold,.... but two wings, two landing gears, two engine thrust sizes... Current tech is very good, especially when you start with a foundation that can take proper advantage of it. Cover from 175/200pax and 200/250pax, short haul and medium haul. 2 models each in 2 subfamilies to make 1 family with common fuselage/avionics/cabin.
They did the 757/767 tandem during the economic crisis of the later Carter / early Reagan years... They can do a Tandem built around the same fuselage/avionics/cabin and get back in the game.
I know a long post.... as an aviation enthusiast... I'm just getting tired of hearing why Boeing can't do this and won't do that. If everyone really believes that passenger loads will return to 2019 levels by 2027... AWESOME... Let's have some awesome planes, a 1 - 2 - punch, for Airlines to start buying in 2027-2029!
Yeah I know.... long term commitments to an entire new family of aircraft run counter to everyone needing to take profits as income every quarter...even in down times... Different world man.....
Totally agree. I expect them to do an Equity raise sooner rather than later to fund the next chapter and retire some debt. Now that they have started to clean up the books that sooner may be quite soon (equity raise). I would not be surprised by an announcement on what comes next within the next 18 months. They have done enough studies that it should be just a matter of picking one and going for it. Calhoun will want to make his mark and once they get a handle on how long long it takes to certify in the new era they can properly define the program in terms of length and cost. The 777X experience should give them that knowledge.
Either this or basically concede defeat and let the MAX run out. They really need to get started to start delivering the next solution before the end of the decade.
Credit Suisse analysts are thinking 2023/2024 for launch announcement for EIS 2030/31. What we know for sure is that they are working on something for launch and they're definitely ending the 737 business. This decade may be spent preparing everett for this jet as the 787 moves out?
Secondly they clearly have a good idea of what they want to build, its now looking at how to extract the best in class efficiencies from what that is. Calhoun says its just not the right time to point at the design.
I think it will be in the 180-250 seater range of course like calhoun has already eluded to