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Armadillo1
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:10 am

what dimensions needed for 2*LD3/45?
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:54 am

What I always wonder is, would Aircraft manufacturer cancel their project to save costs or would they keep it up because they already half way and take a hit in the profit department.

Cause you know, it's not like anybody would really miss B777-8 if it got canceled, just like A350-800.

Boeing currently got squished by Airbus on the narrowbody and large widebody market. What could they really do now?
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:36 am

Wouldn't Boeing need to develop the 777-8 as a base version for the freighter anyway?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:47 am

Noshow wrote:
Wouldn't Boeing need to develop the 777-8 as a base version for the freighter anyway?


Is there anything to stop them continuing to build 77Fs?
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flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:51 am

morrisond wrote:

But is it 250-275 seats seating in a single class Y seats with 2 cabins (normal wide body type layout) or a 2 class 2 aisle configuration. The Aviation week article is a little wishy washy on that


So the wording from the article is
targeting the 250-275 seat size category in a two-class, twin-aisle configuration.


I agree, very wishy washy.

morrisond wrote:
- but the first interpretation would be 752/753 capacity - which jives with what Boeing said initially about the NMA way back before it was made larger - A321 plus an extra seat per aisle. If it is 275 seats in 2 classes then that means the 6,7,8 could have reached into the same capacity as 788 which does not make sense.

if 250-275 target is in the Max capacity bracket then it fits wholly in the 752/753 gap
If 250-275 is in the all Y configuration it fits between the 752/753 and kind of between 762/763
if 250-275 is in 2 class configuration it fits wholly between the 788 and 789

The thing that has always lacked from any announcements/News feeds is clarity on size.

Fred
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flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:55 am

scbriml wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Wouldn't Boeing need to develop the 777-8 as a base version for the freighter anyway?


Is there anything to stop them continuing to build 77Fs?


Personally I'd wait to see what the GE9X is capable of from a genuine thrust perspective and if it can get close to the 115B (i.e. will it make 110klb without too much hit on reliability/in service life) then integrate that with the old frame and take the savings that gives. The additional weight of the new wings and other structures doesn't appear to help the MZFW performance as much as the top end.

Fred
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JonesNL
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:03 am

seahawk wrote:
I hate to say it, but the A320 fuselage is very close to efficiency perfection if you want a 6 abreast seating with LD3/45s.


How much value do LD3 containers have actually? Especially seeing that more and more airlines are putting the cargo luggage to the auxiliary options.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:05 am

Could they build the X and the old 200F in parallel? Guess not. Just for a short transition period. It's a different wing and many changes. Certifying some additional Frankenstein of both versions now would be super expensive.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:09 pm

JonesNL wrote:
seahawk wrote:
I hate to say it, but the A320 fuselage is very close to efficiency perfection if you want a 6 abreast seating with LD3/45s.


How much value do LD3 containers have actually? Especially seeing that more and more airlines are putting the cargo luggage to the auxiliary options.


No containers would just be another strange decision for the design. If you want more range and twin aisles for faster turnaround, it becomes quite moot if you start hand loading 250 bags. Sure you could have a special container for the 797.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:39 pm

seahawk wrote:
I hate to say it, but the A320 fuselage is very close to efficiency perfection if you want a 6 abreast seating with LD3/45s.


In what sense do you consider the A320 cross section to outperform the MC-21 one?
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:49 pm

In the end it only adds a few inches to the aisle. Put a 17,3" seat into the A321 you have nearly the same aisle width and still a seat width that has established itself as standard even for long haul.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:27 pm

Ten years from now and it will be likely someone is looking at launching an electric or electric hybrid for flights for 500 nautical miles, even 1000. It could obsolete an awful large number of current NBs. Even if it doesn't happen I suspect A and B are worrying about it.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:55 pm

seahawk wrote:
In the end it only adds a few inches to the aisle. Put a 17,3" seat into the A321 you have nearly the same aisle width and still a seat width that has established itself as standard even for long haul.

So is those few inches not the claim to fame that the A320 has over the 737, it is wider?
 
JonesNL
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:56 pm

seahawk wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
seahawk wrote:
I hate to say it, but the A320 fuselage is very close to efficiency perfection if you want a 6 abreast seating with LD3/45s.


How much value do LD3 containers have actually? Especially seeing that more and more airlines are putting the cargo luggage to the auxiliary options.


No containers would just be another strange decision for the design. If you want more range and twin aisles for faster turnaround, it becomes quite moot if you start hand loading 250 bags. Sure you could have a special container for the 797.


Well, I am considering it more in the NB scenario with an smaller cross section than the A320 without the LD3 and thus having an bigger weight advantage over the A321, but with an custom container option if really needed.

My guess is they can get the tube 10% lighter than A321 if they make it out new materials in combination with an smaller cross section. Mind you, I didn't run the numbers on the 10% figure.

It could be in 3 classes.
6 abreast economy
5 abreast economy comfort
2 abreast business

The last bit is a brain fart of my own. So, no sources.
Last edited by JonesNL on Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:03 pm

par13del wrote:
seahawk wrote:
In the end it only adds a few inches to the aisle. Put a 17,3" seat into the A321 you have nearly the same aisle width and still a seat width that has established itself as standard even for long haul.

So is those few inches not the claim to fame that the A320 has over the 737, it is wider?


This is only a topic for forums, not in reality. I bet not one A320NEO sold because of the wider seat option.
 
744SPX
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:06 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
morrisond wrote:

But is it 250-275 seats seating in a single class Y seats with 2 cabins (normal wide body type layout) or a 2 class 2 aisle configuration. The Aviation week article is a little wishy washy on that


So the wording from the article is
targeting the 250-275 seat size category in a two-class, twin-aisle configuration.


I agree, very wishy washy.

morrisond wrote:
- but the first interpretation would be 752/753 capacity - which jives with what Boeing said initially about the NMA way back before it was made larger - A321 plus an extra seat per aisle. If it is 275 seats in 2 classes then that means the 6,7,8 could have reached into the same capacity as 788 which does not make sense.

if 250-275 target is in the Max capacity bracket then it fits wholly in the 752/753 gap
If 250-275 is in the all Y configuration it fits between the 752/753 and kind of between 762/763
if 250-275 is in 2 class configuration it fits wholly between the 788 and 789


The thing that has always lacked from any announcements/News feeds is clarity on size.

Fred



Yeah, what kind of sense does targeting the 788-789 size bracket make? ridiculous. That would guarantee a fail. Big-time.
It would also help everyone if they went back to categorizing aircraft by max capacity. Anything else is just pointless obfuscation.
 
CRJockey
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:10 pm

seahawk wrote:
par13del wrote:
seahawk wrote:
In the end it only adds a few inches to the aisle. Put a 17,3" seat into the A321 you have nearly the same aisle width and still a seat width that has established itself as standard even for long haul.

So is those few inches not the claim to fame that the A320 has over the 737, it is wider?


This is only a topic for forums, not in reality. I bet not one A320NEO sold because of the wider seat option.


I like your realistic approach on this topic and I fully agree with you. Comfort measured in minimal differences of small fantasy units doesn't sell planes at all. As doesn't wider aisles.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:34 pm

Noshow wrote:
Could they build the X and the old 200F in parallel? Guess not. Just for a short transition period. It's a different wing and many changes. Certifying some additional Frankenstein of both versions now would be super expensive.

The plan is to build both 777F and 777X on the same line.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/analysis-b ... 43.article

I'm not sure if that is how it is being done in real life, maybe someone can tell us if they are doing it this way right now or if they are two separate lines.
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Polot
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:43 pm

The first 777Xs were built on a temporary separate line, but the plan from the beginning was always to have one line to build both the 777F and 777X as there was always going to be overlap in offering those two models- a 777XF was not launched with the 777X program and Boeing had no intention of killing the 777F.

The plan was to have the two lines merged into one line by last year, but with all the 777X delays (and Covid) I’m not sure if that has come into fruition yet.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Could they build the X and the old 200F in parallel? Guess not. Just for a short transition period. It's a different wing and many changes. Certifying some additional Frankenstein of both versions now would be super expensive.

The plan is to build both 777F and 777X on the same line.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/analysis-b ... 43.article

I'm not sure if that is how it is being done in real life, maybe someone can tell us if they are doing it this way right now or if they are two separate lines.


There is a 777x going through the main 777 line right now. But there is also 777x in the LRIP line as well
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
Just installing a 3rd AoA sensor was not done "due to the legacy independent federated system architecture of the Boeing 737". I guess "federated" is a nicer way of saying "dumb" or at least "disjointed".


IT started out as a basic two independent lobes layout with the bridging/checking provided by crew eyeballs.
Nothing much in the instrumentation domain had push through to actual flight controls.
That was state of the art and functional.

They started to form a pear when added functionality did only access one lobe. ( like radio alt linked to AP? )
They screwed the pooch with MCAS handing unchecked input of one lobe to a highly leveraged flight control input.
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william
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:06 pm

Going this route gives the 737 customers a way forward. No doubt Boeing is selling the next gen cockpit and its commonality with the 737 MAX replacement.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:18 pm

CRJockey wrote:
seahawk wrote:
par13del wrote:
So is those few inches not the claim to fame that the A320 has over the 737, it is wider?


This is only a topic for forums, not in reality. I bet not one A320NEO sold because of the wider seat option.


I like your realistic approach on this topic and I fully agree with you. Comfort measured in minimal differences of small fantasy units doesn't sell planes at all. As doesn't wider aisles.


Thank you, in the end it is just another engineering challenge and one for a very mature basic product (tube with wings airliner). This makes it easy to calculate basic parameters and gives a good idea of the options. To be honest I would not dare to judge if any option is a good idea, because nobody knows how traffic and demand will be in 6 months, much less in 5 years. If the past is any indication then we must assume that digitalisation is here to stay and this could also be true for business meetings. How this will effect the high margin business travellers will have to be seen. At the moment I would not be thinking about a new plane, unless it is basically the (necessary) replacement of a type in a proven and secure market segment.
 
brindabella
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:21 pm

morrisond wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Nothing 100% Definitive - but this seems to be the article with the most credibility. Combine that with what Ostrower has said in the past and Boeing wanting to use as much of NMA as possible.

Unless you think they are going to do an even larger 2x3x2 circular cross section and throw out what they learned on NMA and have been working on for a decade.

Sure a Circular 2x3x2 would be a great 757 replacement....

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... titor-plan


The problem with the article is:
The new Boeing airliner study, believed to be called the -5X, appears to be an outgrowth of the shelved New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) project and is targeting the 250-275 seat size category in a two-class, twin-aisle configuration.

Thats all well and good, and sits above the 757... completely. I'd agree a twin aisle would be best here.

The aircraft, which would effectively be a replacement for the 757-200/300, would likely have a range of up to 5,000 nm
So it takes 20% more passengers 20% further.

it then goes on to say
Calhoun, speaking at Boeing’s 2020 fourth-quarter earnings call, said an A321-sized competitor is “pretty much in the right space with respect to where next development efforts lean.”
Weird. So the bloke from Boeing contradicts what is said in the rest of the article. The A321 cant even seat 250 pax let alone in a 2 class configuration.

So what we have learned is that its the replacement for an aircraft but is 20% higher capacity and has 20% more range but yet its size is that of one that sits even less and is single aisle but we are sure its a twin aisle.

Everything n the article points to a 767-250 -->767-350 sized aircraft including the thrust range. The only thing different is what the man from Boeing said


I'd say a cross section that can take full height containers would be quite useful. Maybe the 788 is a better baseline, round it better, no point making it heavier to not then be able to carry proper pallets.

Fred



But is it 250-275 seats seating in a single class Y seats with 2 cabins (normal wide body type layout) or a 2 class 2 aisle configuration. The Aviation week article is a little wishy washy on that - but the first interpretation would be 752/753 capacity - which jives with what Boeing said initially about the NMA way back before it was made larger - A321 plus an extra seat per aisle. If it is 275 seats in 2 classes then that means the 6,7,8 could have reached into the same capacity as 788 which does not make sense.

But who knows - all speculation until they actually put a pin in it and launch it - if they ever do. Personally I would go the smaller route and then you can grow it later and stay away from the 788 in Capacity.


I doubt the 788 occupies much time & attention in Chicago.

A 787 family 2025-2030 re-engine/mid-life upgrade will see:

789 - great, but really a bit too much structure now (= too much range; although Alan Joyce might disagree!).
78X - right in the sweet spot. Recapitulating the history of the A321 and A330 families where the payload/range matures.
Watch out both the A350 and 777X families!
788 - Ho Hum. :bored: It really could use it's own smaller wing - but won't get it. :shakehead: :sorry:
Much more likely will be the larger 797 models with (much) smaller wings coming into the 788 space.

So whatever planning is going on for the 797 -5X, -6X and -7X, I doubt that the 788 is getting any attention at all.

cheers
Billy
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:24 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Wouldn't Boeing need to develop the 777-8 as a base version for the freighter anyway?


Is there anything to stop them continuing to build 77Fs?


Personally I'd wait to see what the GE9X is capable of from a genuine thrust perspective and if it can get close to the 115B (i.e. will it make 110klb without too much hit on reliability/in service life) then integrate that with the old frame and take the savings that gives. The additional weight of the new wings and other structures doesn't appear to help the MZFW performance as much as the top end.

Fred


Hmmm! :scratchchin:

Verrry interesting!

cheers
Billy
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:

Compete != outsell in both the real and imaginary domains.

Feel free to choose your own words, but please don't choose mine.

My bad, naively thought success would be one of the goals.

Sales is not the ultimate measure of success for a commercial enterprise, return on investment is.

The books aren't closed on 777X, probably won't be for another few decades.

I would not be surprised to see a next generation engine under that same 777X wing ~15 or so years from now.


Boeing's best estimated production rate for 777X is 2 per month. Which is actually over optimistic. My imagination puts at 1 per month.

When 777X started, WA assumed it will be a slam dunk, promised a lot of incentives.

Now with the bad blood between Boeing and WA, with such low production rates and WTO breathing on the necks, I would say chances of WA incentives is zero.

Would EXIM subsidize foreign carrier purchase? Doubtful at best.

$6.9 Billion write-off.

Is 777X an evolutionary product or revolutionary product? The answer is still elusive, but the write-off shows its is too much for an evolutionary product.

And you are estimating 15 year successful production and re-engine with a positive ROI...

What am I missing here.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:51 pm

seahawk wrote:
The defining version for the structural design would still be the the version with the highest MTOW. You simply can not have a short range optimized short version and a long range optimized long version, with a meaningful amount of common structural parts.


Yes, but it is not like Boeing can make a 737-10LR that can fly 5000nm with pax+bags like the A321XLR can.

So either Boeing just ignores that market completely until NSA launches sometime in the 2030 or airlines that Boeing has talked to appear to have accepted the higher trip costs of a "heavy" 5X because of the higher revenue payload it can carry compared to the A321XLR on TATL-style missions.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:01 pm

Stitch wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The defining version for the structural design would still be the the version with the highest MTOW. You simply can not have a short range optimized short version and a long range optimized long version, with a meaningful amount of common structural parts.


Yes, but it is not like Boeing can make a 737-10LR that can fly 5000nm with pax+bags like the A321XLR can.

So either Boeing just ignores that market completely until NSA launches sometime in the 2030 or airlines that Boeing has talked to appear to have accepted the higher trip costs of a "heavy" 5X because of the higher revenue payload it can carry compared to the A321XLR on TATL-style missions.


Or push the NSA forward. Imho this is the only sensible option, -5X would most likely motivate Airbus to renovate the A320 series. Say dropping the A319, and bringing a line of A320.5 - A321 - A322 with a new wing, new wing box and some other tweaks. This instantly kills the 737MAX. At that moment NSA needs to ready.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:14 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
What am I missing here.


A question mark, perhaps? :-)
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:43 pm

seahawk wrote:
Or push the NSA forward. Imho this is the only sensible option, -5X would most likely motivate Airbus to renovate the A320 series. Say dropping the A319, and bringing a line of A320.5 - A321 - A322 with a new wing, new wing box and some other tweaks. This instantly kills the 737MAX. At that moment NSA needs to ready.


Airbus is not going to first-move on a narrowbody family replacement because they are already in the dominant position. And the A319 is already dead - killed by the A220-300. The A220-500 will probably shank the A320-200, as well, which might be why Airbus is not yet ready to commit to it since that would mostly leave just the A321-200 as an orphan (a damn good orphan, mind you, but still an orphan). Airbus will wait for Boeing to move on NSA and will then rationalize their narrowbody fleet between the A220 as the sub-200 seat (A318/A319/A320 replacement) and then a new family to handle the 200-240 seat single-class market.

As for Boeing, they have way too much invested into MAX to just kill it off - which is exactly what would happen if they launch NSA now. Both because Airbus would pounce with the A320neo family via favorable pricing and availability and because I don't think airlines have a lot of faith in Boeing competently executing an NSA at the moment - especially at high build rates - to commit the money Boeing would be asking.

NMA will most likely at first address markets that was served - and served well - by the 767 family before those frames were eclipsed by newer and larger families (A330neo, A350, 787) which were so much more fuel efficient they could compete with the 767 on a trip-cost basis and their extra revenue potential came effectively "for free". NMA will have (likely significantly) lower trip costs so it will push those models off in many cases as well as open up more fragmentation opportunities.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:51 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Wouldn't Boeing need to develop the 777-8 as a base version for the freighter anyway?


Is there anything to stop them continuing to build 77Fs?


Personally I'd wait to see what the GE9X is capable of from a genuine thrust perspective and if it can get close to the 115B (i.e. will it make 110klb without too much hit on reliability/in service life) then integrate that with the old frame and take the savings that gives. The additional weight of the new wings and other structures doesn't appear to help the MZFW performance as much as the top end.

Fred


In testing I think the GE9X maxed out at 7K more than the 115B - This is a Cool Story https://www.ge.com/news/reports/its-off ... jet-engine

No idea what the reliability will be at 115K though - but if you assume the same margin then is maybe 120K possible?

What are you thinking? Bump MTOW - higher thrust and the 9F becomes the freighter? With the 748F winding down - that may not be a bad idea.

It makes more room for an 788F then.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:03 pm

744SPX wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
morrisond wrote:

But is it 250-275 seats seating in a single class Y seats with 2 cabins (normal wide body type layout) or a 2 class 2 aisle configuration. The Aviation week article is a little wishy washy on that


So the wording from the article is
targeting the 250-275 seat size category in a two-class, twin-aisle configuration.


I agree, very wishy washy.

morrisond wrote:
- but the first interpretation would be 752/753 capacity - which jives with what Boeing said initially about the NMA way back before it was made larger - A321 plus an extra seat per aisle. If it is 275 seats in 2 classes then that means the 6,7,8 could have reached into the same capacity as 788 which does not make sense.

if 250-275 target is in the Max capacity bracket then it fits wholly in the 752/753 gap
If 250-275 is in the all Y configuration it fits between the 752/753 and kind of between 762/763
if 250-275 is in 2 class configuration it fits wholly between the 788 and 789


The thing that has always lacked from any announcements/News feeds is clarity on size.

Fred



Yeah, what kind of sense does targeting the 788-789 size bracket make? ridiculous. That would guarantee a fail. Big-time.
It would also help everyone if they went back to categorizing aircraft by max capacity. Anything else is just pointless obfuscation.


Agreed it's a lot easier to talk in Y seats at say 31" pitch Slimline.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:05 pm

Stitch wrote:
Airbus is not going to first-move on a narrowbody family replacement because they are already in the dominant position. And the A319 is already dead - killed by the A220-300. The A220-500 will probably shank the A320-200, as well, which might be why Airbus is not yet ready to commit to it since that would mostly leave just the A321-200 as an orphan (a damn good orphan, mind you, but still an orphan).


I think the A320 killed the A319, not so much the A220-300. Of course it didn't help. It's the same old story, once the larger variant gets sufficient range, the higher sticker price is insufficient deterrent not to go for the lower CASM of the larger model.
Last edited by Taxi645 on Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:10 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
And you are estimating 15 year successful production and re-engine with a positive ROI...

What am I missing here.


It appears to me you are looking at the currently decimated demand driving the combined 777/777X rate down to 2 per month, a rate only viable because of the freighter demand, and missing that the expected market need is not defined by the situation in the 2020-2024 time frame. The expected growth trend after 2024 is lower than previous forecasts, and even after adjustment is still more uncertain than usual, but still anticipates significant long term traffic growth.

The key to whether the 777X languishes or succeeds is going to be how the fleet size plans evolve. My guess is the A350 family is going to outsell the 777X somewhere in the 3:1 range, but that could still be enough to make the 777X financially successful in the long run.

I'm not ready to forecast a major engine upgrade in 15 years like Revelation proposed, but if the plane does turn out successful, that would be the right time frame for Boeing to be looking at it.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:18 pm

China will need big planes. Many. Their airlines grow into wide-body sized fleets, their citizens travel longer range and their aviation industry is not ready for home grown wide bodies yet. I see a market for the 777X in China. The Middle East? Not so sure anymore.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:24 pm

morrisond wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Is there anything to stop them continuing to build 77Fs?


Personally I'd wait to see what the GE9X is capable of from a genuine thrust perspective and if it can get close to the 115B (i.e. will it make 110klb without too much hit on reliability/in service life) then integrate that with the old frame and take the savings that gives. The additional weight of the new wings and other structures doesn't appear to help the MZFW performance as much as the top end.

Fred


In testing I think the GE9X maxed out at 7K more than the 115B - This is a Cool Story https://www.ge.com/news/reports/its-off ... jet-engine

No idea what the reliability will be at 115K though - but if you assume the same margin then is maybe 120K possible?

What are you thinking? Bump MTOW - higher thrust and the 9F becomes the freighter? With the 748F winding down - that may not be a bad idea.

It makes more room for an 788F then.

Nothing that complicated, just slap the GE9X on the 77F take the relevant payload/range increase that the reduced SFC would bring and call it a day. There isn’t any other option in the freighter market at that scale so competition is negligible. Burning 10%+ less is worth something as is is 0,offing the engine choice going forward. No ge90s new.

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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:42 pm

morrisond wrote:
In testing I think the GE9X maxed out at 7K more than the 115B - This is a Cool Story https://www.ge.com/news/reports/its-off ... jet-engine


That is a certification metric/limit/requirement not an "in use" one.
( and it is applicable to all jet engines to prove that it is not a race horse design. ( run the distance and die.)

Only GE seems to go for making a statement with that test.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:00 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Boeing's best estimated production rate for 777X is 2 per month. Which is actually over optimistic. My imagination puts at 1 per month.

When 777X started, WA assumed it will be a slam dunk, promised a lot of incentives.
...
$6.9 Billion write-off.
...
And you are estimating 15 year successful production and re-engine with a positive ROI...

What am I missing here.

I won't put words in your mouth, so here are a few things I can see as one view of the situation.

Boeing took the 777X write off now, but they kept the program alive. Now would be the perfect time to just kill it off if they saw no future for it. Why keep the expensive global test flying campaign going? Why not lay off most of the expensive talent and deal with the regulator's wrath on the next clean sheet? Customers could be bought off with discounts on 787s and refunds of their deposits. Wall Street is awash in red ink, a bunch more would be just another blip. Yet they chose to not kill it off, which says something to me.

We can all look at the production rate and backlog in whatever way we want, but I think there's at least enough there for another six years or so of production at 2/month which should get the product through EIS and should get the airlines to the point they have much better visibility on their future plans. It might not take as long as six years to get to the point where customers can start ordering again. Time will tell.

No one can predict the future, but one outcome might be a lot less overall flying but still major trunk routes getting enough passengers and freight to make running 779s a good option. Pretty much all the larger competition in the form of 744, 748 and A380 will be killed off by then. We could see steady growth starting in the late 20s and then get back to high levels of production in the early 30s. A NEO may be viable by the mid 30s.

Stitch wrote:
Airbus is not going to first-move on a narrowbody family replacement because they are already in the dominant position. And the A319 is already dead - killed by the A220-300. The A220-500 will probably shank the A320-200, as well, which might be why Airbus is not yet ready to commit to it since that would mostly leave just the A321-200 as an orphan (a damn good orphan, mind you, but still an orphan). Airbus will wait for Boeing to move on NSA and will then rationalize their narrowbody fleet between the A220 as the sub-200 seat (A318/A319/A320 replacement) and then a new family to handle the 200-240 seat single-class market.

As for Boeing, they have way too much invested into MAX to just kill it off - which is exactly what would happen if they launch NSA now. Both because Airbus would pounce with the A320neo family via favorable pricing and availability and because I don't think airlines have a lot of faith in Boeing competently executing an NSA at the moment - especially at high build rates - to commit the money Boeing would be asking.

NMA will most likely at first address markets that was served - and served well - by the 767 family before those frames were eclipsed by newer and larger families (A330neo, A350, 787) which were so much more fuel efficient they could compete with the 767 on a trip-cost basis and their extra revenue potential came effectively "for free". NMA will have (likely significantly) lower trip costs so it will push those models off in many cases as well as open up more fragmentation opportunities.

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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:03 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Nothing that complicated, just slap the GE9X on the 77F take the relevant payload/range increase that the reduced SFC would bring and call it a day. There isn’t any other option in the freighter market at that scale so competition is negligible. Burning 10%+ less is worth something as is is 0,offing the engine choice going forward. No ge90s new.


Producing the 77XF does smack a bit of eating your own children. Even worse, it’s eating your own children when you really don’t need to. It would be a repeat of the 748F - if Boeing had never build the 748F, they’d have very likely sold exactly the same number of 744Fs instead (because there was no competition).
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:06 pm

Is there a technical reason for an oval to not have a container-ready cargo hold aft of the passengers on the main deck if the bulkhead/air handling/fire suppression was designed to do so from the get-go?
Last edited by NameOmitted on Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:20 pm

scbriml wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Nothing that complicated, just slap the GE9X on the 77F take the relevant payload/range increase that the reduced SFC would bring and call it a day. There isn’t any other option in the freighter market at that scale so competition is negligible. Burning 10%+ less is worth something as is is 0,offing the engine choice going forward. No ge90s new.

Producing the 77XF does smack a bit of eating your own children. Even worse, it’s eating your own children when you really don’t need to. It would be a repeat of the 748F - if Boeing had never build the 748F, they’d have very likely sold exactly the same number of 744Fs instead (because there was no competition).

I suppose, but would this not be viewed as resting on their laurels which is something they often get accused of? Seems they are damned if they do, damned if they do not.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:30 pm

Is this a 777/747 freighter thread or a 797 thread?

Thread is deviating because taken together, Calhoun, AvWeek, Leeham haven't given us a consistent message. We are all as clueless as we were last time NMA was shelved.

It seems so expensive to target A321XLR with two planes... MAX10 and 5X...

We don't even have a clear picture of the niche they are looking to fill.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:36 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Is this a 777/747 freighter thread or a 797 thread?

Thread is deviating because taken together, Calhoun, AvWeek, Leeham haven't given us a consistent message. We are all as clueless as we were last time NMA was shelved.

It seems so expensive to target A321XLR with two planes... MAX10 and 5X...

We don't even have a clear picture of the niche they are looking to fill.

Yes, the hardest, most important and most fun part of any problem solving is working out what the problem is.

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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:42 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
It seems so expensive to target A321XLR with two planes... MAX10 and 5X...


Yes it is, but Boeing also gets five other planes in the deal - MAX7, MAX8, MAX9, 6X and 7X - which spreads those costs out and offers additional revenue opportunities in markets above and below the A321XLR.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Nothing that complicated, just slap the GE9X on the 77F take the relevant payload/range increase that the reduced SFC would bring and call it a day. There isn’t any other option in the freighter market at that scale so competition is negligible. Burning 10%+ less is worth something as is is 0,offing the engine choice going forward. No ge90s new.

Producing the 77XF does smack a bit of eating your own children. Even worse, it’s eating your own children when you really don’t need to. It would be a repeat of the 748F - if Boeing had never build the 748F, they’d have very likely sold exactly the same number of 744Fs instead (because there was no competition).

I suppose, but would this not be viewed as resting on their laurels which is something they often get accused of? Seems they are damned if they do, damned if they do not.


I don’t think so, hence my question/suggestion they just keep building 777Fs. I don’t see that there’s any pressure whatsoever to build a 778F (it’s not like Airbus is snapping at the 777F’s heels, is it?) Yes, I understand the argument that it would provide more frames over which to amortise all the costs, but those costs would be lower without the F (or the -8 at all).
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:58 pm

"Leeham News: At long last, Boeing seems to be moving in the right direction on its next new airplane."

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/03/final ... direction/

Seems like we finally will finally have some exciting news ...

[photoid]ImageNMA 2 by FLY GUY, no Flickr[/photoid]

[photoid]ImageNMA by FLY GUY, no Flickr[/photoid]
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:10 pm

Stitch wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Or push the NSA forward. Imho this is the only sensible option, -5X would most likely motivate Airbus to renovate the A320 series. Say dropping the A319, and bringing a line of A320.5 - A321 - A322 with a new wing, new wing box and some other tweaks. This instantly kills the 737MAX. At that moment NSA needs to ready.


Airbus is not going to first-move on a narrowbody family replacement because they are already in the dominant position. And the A319 is already dead - killed by the A220-300. The A220-500 will probably shank the A320-200, as well, which might be why Airbus is not yet ready to commit to it since that would mostly leave just the A321-200 as an orphan (a damn good orphan, mind you, but still an orphan). Airbus will wait for Boeing to move on NSA and will then rationalize their narrowbody fleet between the A220 as the sub-200 seat (A318/A319/A320 replacement) and then a new family to handle the 200-240 seat single-class market.

As for Boeing, they have way too much invested into MAX to just kill it off - which is exactly what would happen if they launch NSA now. Both because Airbus would pounce with the A320neo family via favorable pricing and availability and because I don't think airlines have a lot of faith in Boeing competently executing an NSA at the moment - especially at high build rates - to commit the money Boeing would be asking.

NMA will most likely at first address markets that was served - and served well - by the 767 family before those frames were eclipsed by newer and larger families (A330neo, A350, 787) which were so much more fuel efficient they could compete with the 767 on a trip-cost basis and their extra revenue potential came effectively "for free". NMA will have (likely significantly) lower trip costs so it will push those models off in many cases as well as open up more fragmentation opportunities.


If Boeing goes for the A321, Airbus will modernize the A320 series and to be honest there is a lot obvious potential in the series. We know they have the CFRP wingbox and that they are working on a wing. With a new wing it would make sense to move to an A320.5 (up to 200 seats - 3 extra rows) and add an A322 with around 265 seats above the A321. This would kill the MAX. If Boeing goes so big with the NMA that it does not force Airbus to work on the A320 series, they are actually going for their own 787, which should dominate that segment against the A330NEO. The 767 replacement market will be done by 2027 any way when it comes to pax versions. That ship has sailed.

So either Boeing goes for the A321 and Airbus forces them to do the NSA. Or they go for their own 787 and still need to do the NSA whenever Airbus reworks the A320 series. The whole thing gets nasty if Airbus moves early and sends the redone A321 to the market before -5X is ready.

And I personally think it is pure arrogance to believe that Airbus won´t move first in the single aisle market. Actually they are quite open on what they are working on at the moment and it very much points to a A320 refresh. When they have a market case for it, they will launch. Especially if you look at the time frame the EU has laid out for carbon neutral airplanes. If the refresh of A320 is to be worth the effort it needs to come at the end of the decade before newer concepts take over and the end of the 2030ies.
Last edited by seahawk on Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:17 pm

Airbus will very likely grow the A321neo with some new wing. That's independent of Boeing. It's low risk and cheap to have even supporting the family.
But if Boeing launches something else entirely new, like some NSA-family, they will react but very likely not come out first.
It would be a mistake for Boeing to just build their own A321neo. They should do something like a new 767. Wider, more cargo, but not too big and not too much range and span. Just slightly above and beyond the A321XLR.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:18 pm

MatheusLPV wrote:
"Leeham News: At long last, Boeing seems to be moving in the right direction on its next new airplane."

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/03/final ... direction/

Seems like we finally will finally have some exciting news ...

[photoid]ImageNMA 2 by FLY GUY, no Flickr[/photoid]

[photoid]ImageNMA by FLY GUY, no Flickr[/photoid]

Leeham just muddies the water here, 189pax is clearly single class for 739 but 250 seats ain’t single class for 763 (maybe is for 753). Seems like avweek and leeham is just putting out click bait without substance.

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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:27 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
I hate to say it, but the A320 fuselage is very close to efficiency perfection if you want a 6 abreast seating with LD3/45s.


In what sense do you consider the A320 cross section to outperform the MC-21 one?


A320 fuselage is big enough for LD3-45 but no too big that they are carrying dead weight around like MC-21.
Because both A320 and MC-21 carry LD3-45 and 6 seats in a row. The smaller one would be more efficient than the larger one.

If Boeing ought to developed new Narrow-body, they should consider this problem.

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