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Pythagoras
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:19 pm

Stitch wrote:
littlewing347 wrote:
What is the magic of the 757 that this 40 year old design still gets raves from airlines? And if it is so great as Nocella says, why did not United and other airlines do top-up orders some 20 years ago when Boeing called them with "last call, we will shut down the 757 line unless we get some orders"?


I expect the biggest "magic" is the frame is paid for so the capital costs have been fully amortized compared to a new-purchase airframe. And effectively being a super-long 737 / A320, the CASM is great thanks to all the seats.

As to why they didn't order a ton back in the day, the model entered service in 1999 and by the time it was in full serial production, 9/11 happened and domestic air travel in the United States collapsed so the need for a high-capacity people-hauler dried up. Add in SARS two years later and Asia, which arguably could have been a popular market, also dried up.

And with the 737NG setting sales records, Boeing needed more production capacity for that family and the quickest and easiest way to add it was to close the 757 line and turn it into another 737NG line. So with neither US or Asian operators clamoring for more 757s of any model, that is what Boeing did.


The 757 line was closed after the US major airlines suffered a financial crisis after the 9/11 attacks and were seeing negative balance sheets. At the same time, we had a notorious cost cutter Harry Stonecipher at the helm at Boeing who was looking to reduce factory space. Stonecipher and his protege Mike Sears were big proponents of using the metric of Return on Net Assets (RNA), which meant that factory/office floor space was used as metric for means to cut cost. The 757 line at its low rates did not look favorably using that metric.

By the early 2000s, the 757 had essentially found its niche on US domestic routes with some other operators needing its short-field and high-altitude capability. Realistically, the 757-300 really was only going to be used within a fleet of current 757-200 operators.

I have insider information that airlines came back to Boeing after the line was shut down asking to purchase the 757-300, but once a line has been shut down and tooling scrapped it is too expensive to re-start.
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:23 pm

kalvado wrote:
Stitch wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Did they ever consider folding wingtips on 787? Once things seem to work on X, technology could be applied elsewhere


The original 787-9 and 787-10 were supposed to have a three meter wider span than the 787-8, but the weight of that span increase negated the fuel efficiency increase for the most common 787 stage lengths and it was easier to have just one common wing across the class so Boeing kept the 787-8 span for all three models. As such, there is no benefit to extending the span even more and using folding wingtips to fit in current gates,

I am more thinking about shrinking existing wingspan by folding to fit 757 gates. Looks like it's too much to ask as the difference is quite large.


Folding wingtips need to be designed into an aircraft up front (as with the 777X). There is no economical way to retrofit them onto an existing aircraft. For starters, the entire wing has to be modified (fuel tanks, control surfaces, structure, wiring, etc.) Then the controls have to be integrated into the cockpit and computer systems.

Have a great day,
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:54 pm

Pythagoras wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Stitch wrote:

The original 787-9 and 787-10 were supposed to have a three meter wider span than the 787-8, but the weight of that span increase negated the fuel efficiency increase for the most common 787 stage lengths and it was easier to have just one common wing across the class so Boeing kept the 787-8 span for all three models. As such, there is no benefit to extending the span even more and using folding wingtips to fit in current gates,

I am more thinking about shrinking existing wingspan by folding to fit 757 gates. Looks like it's too much to ask as the difference is quite large.


Folding wing tip should only buys its way onto the airplane if one is flying very long range where the extra span is needed to reduce drag.

Sometimes you solve some other problems that way. For example, buying some room
Image
 
Newark727
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:58 pm

kalvado wrote:
Pythagoras wrote:
kalvado wrote:
I am more thinking about shrinking existing wingspan by folding to fit 757 gates. Looks like it's too much to ask as the difference is quite large.


Folding wing tip should only buys its way onto the airplane if one is flying very long range where the extra span is needed to reduce drag.

Sometimes you solve some other problems that way. For example, buying some room
Image


I would be very surprised to see the Boeing NMA operating from an aircraft carrier. :lol:
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:03 pm

Newark727 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Pythagoras wrote:

Folding wing tip should only buys its way onto the airplane if one is flying very long range where the extra span is needed to reduce drag.

Sometimes you solve some other problems that way. For example, buying some room
Image


I would be very surprised to see the Boeing NMA operating from an aircraft carrier. :lol:

Would you be surprised to see NMA operating from a 737 gate? It's not a simple task to make a large fold work. In fact it can turn out to be an impossible task. But it would definitely be something that can trip a needle for airline planners.
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:01 pm

At this rate it seems Airbus will grow into an NMA before Boeing quits dithering.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:21 pm

If Boeing sees their NB market position becoming problematic in say 7, 8 years, they shouldn't wait much longer launching something new.

If they do not see it, they should just keep studying an NMA. Or a 787-10 with better payload-range for the Pacific.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:36 am

Chemist wrote:
At this rate it seems Airbus will grow into an NMA before Boeing quits dithering.


The amount of time, money and effort to stretch and re-wing an existing airframe is all significantly lower than designing a new one from the wheels up and creating a supplier and production infrastructure to support it.

Also fairly easier to sell the former, as well, I would imagine.
 
jfk777
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:19 am

Stitch wrote:
Chemist wrote:
At this rate it seems Airbus will grow into an NMA before Boeing quits dithering.


The amount of time, money and effort to stretch and re-wing an existing airframe is all significantly lower than designing a new one from the wheels up and creating a supplier and production infrastructure to support it.

Also fairly easier to sell the former, as well, I would imagine.


The 737 needs to be declared dead by Boeing, the MAX has to be the end. Boeing needs a new narrow body airplane built for current market needs. The MAX is one derivative too many.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:37 am

They need a product viable after 2035, the technology for that is not ready. CFM wants to got Open Rotor, so the whole design will have to adjust. A new plane with existing engines, or small up-dates of existing engines, is dead by 2035.
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:15 am

Stitch wrote:
Chemist wrote:
At this rate it seems Airbus will grow into an NMA before Boeing quits dithering.


The amount of time, money and effort to stretch and re-wing an existing airframe is all significantly lower than designing a new one from the wheels up and creating a supplier and production infrastructure to support it.

Also fairly easier to sell the former, as well, I would imagine.


Agreed. But of course they've been ready to step into this a few times before and always stepped back. It's already been what? 5 years? 10 years? They could have had a new plane flying by now, but because they thought the market might not be big enough, Airbus just kept adding capability to the A321 and that small market is getting ever smaller. While Boeing stays conservative. And then of course the MAX and COVID.

Hence my comment about "Airbus growing into an NMA"
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:24 pm

If "Middle of the Market" really is small, then it's arguably better for Boeing from a financial perspective to let Airbus make a couple billion selling a few score of A321XLR for that specific market (as opposed to airlines buying XLRs because they are the most flexible A321 model even if they have no intention of operating them on 3000nm or longer missions) than losing many multiple billions bringing it to market and not selling enough to recover those costs.
 
Captaincurious
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:32 pm

Stitch wrote:
If "Middle of the Market" really is small, then it's arguably better for Boeing from a financial perspective to let Airbus make a couple billion selling a few score of A321XLR for that specific market (as opposed to airlines buying XLRs because they are the most flexible A321 model even if they have no intention of operating them on 3000nm or longer missions) than losing many multiple billions bringing it to market and not selling enough to recover those costs.


This is pretty accurate. Airlines buy A321 XLRs not just bc of the specific market, but also the flexibility. The A321XLR has fleet commonality with the A320 family which makes it very flexible for airlines in terms of parts, staff training etc. Airlines are unlikely interested in a Boeing NMA with no fleet commonality and Boeing would have wasted multiple billions by launching the NMA. Boeing should now wait for new engine technology before launching another narrowbody and try to get more orders for its Max series. If I were Boeing, I would consider launching the 787 10 to increase the range of the 787, but that is not a priority since Covid shuts down Asia European and Asia US traffic.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:40 pm

Autonomous highway vehicles, and especially near luxury small buses are likely to become very competitive by 2035. I worry about the viability of trains for long distance, and aviation for trips of less than 500 miles with current models, also within the same time frame. Transportation may be transformed.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:06 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Autonomous highway vehicles, and especially near luxury small buses are likely to become very competitive by 2035. I worry about the viability of trains for long distance, and aviation for trips of less than 500 miles with current models, also within the same time frame. Transportation may be transformed.


Are you meaning the US, or worldwide? Trains have been used long distance in Europe and Asia for decades, so curious why you would suddenly doubt their viability.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:26 pm

When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:04 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:39 am

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


It does if you can rent an overnight sleeper coach that will pick you up at your front door and drive you directly to your hotel 600 miles away.

No TSA, no lines, no excess baggage fees.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:04 am

NameOmitted wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


It does if you can rent an overnight sleeper coach that will pick you up at your front door and drive you directly to your hotel 600 miles away.

No TSA, no lines, no excess baggage fees.

I can already travel overnight on a bus. Or drive my vehicle that distance directly to the hotel.

What is automation doing that cannot be achieved right now? Nothing other than getting rid of a driver.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:10 am

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


It does if you can rent an overnight sleeper coach that will pick you up at your front door and drive you directly to your hotel 600 miles away.

No TSA, no lines, no excess baggage fees.

I can already travel overnight on a bus. Or drive my vehicle that distance directly to the hotel.

What is automation doing that cannot be achieved right now? Nothing other than getting rid of a driver.

A bus will come to your front door and drop you off, non-stop, at your destination?
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:35 am

I don't want to have to sleep on a bus.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:45 am

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


It does if you can rent an overnight sleeper coach that will pick you up at your front door and drive you directly to your hotel 600 miles away.

No TSA, no lines, no excess baggage fees.

I can already travel overnight on a bus. Or drive my vehicle that distance directly to the hotel.

What is automation doing that cannot be achieved right now? Nothing other than getting rid of a driver.


Automation will reduce travel times by car a lot (and I mean really a lot) because fully automated roads (so no one is driving by himself) will see almost no traffic jams. Most traffic jams are caused by drivers making mistakes and the fact that humans can not predict the future or crash while they try.

If we take the standard 1s reaction time (we could go higher when you see how many idiots drive with a phone in their hands) the 30th car at a traffic light will accelerate with a 30s delay. If all cars are automated and fully communicate with each other, all cars can start moving simultaneously increasing throughput a lot.

Another example is line switching. Every time someone switches the lane on a speed way it causes slight disturbances in the flow of traffic (some other driver will break, some will accelerate to close the gap, etc.) which over time will start to slow every one down. Automation will cut unnecessary direction changes increasing the capacity of the roads.

If you ever were in a fully automated ware house and then step foot into a non automated one you can see the unbearable amount of inefficiencies humans create when hundreds of them have to bring something from A to B compared to machine doing the same work.
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:33 am

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


The bigger argument is that trains are about 100 times more fuel efficient than highway vehicles. Between aerodynamic drag and tire friction; motor vehicles (whatever their energy source) are just plain humongous fuel hogs compared to trains (steel wheels on steel rails does amazing things to fuel efficiency) - not to mention multiple train cars for almost the same frontal and back air drag.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:05 am

NameOmitted wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:

It does if you can rent an overnight sleeper coach that will pick you up at your front door and drive you directly to your hotel 600 miles away.

No TSA, no lines, no excess baggage fees.

I can already travel overnight on a bus. Or drive my vehicle that distance directly to the hotel.

What is automation doing that cannot be achieved right now? Nothing other than getting rid of a driver.

A bus will come to your front door and drop you off, non-stop, at your destination?
I don't think you get it.

I can get a cab, or an uber or ride share to the bus stop for minimal cost. That is a fraction of the cost of what a 10 hour drive would be. So there is really no convenience attached to being dropped at the bus stop, and getting another uber to drop me to the hotel.

And yes, in my life, we have been picked by bus at the house on several occasions. My father had some arrangement when I was a kid,and paid for the convenience.

I think we live in a world where people think that automation is the answer to all problems and you have these tech companies that are doing everything possible to convince people that this is the future. It happened with the hyperloop argument and we now see it with automated cars.

Automated cars offer nothing above what current cars do not offer. Automated buses are even less convenient and practical.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:25 am

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
I can already travel overnight on a bus. Or drive my vehicle that distance directly to the hotel.

What is automation doing that cannot be achieved right now? Nothing other than getting rid of a driver.

A bus will come to your front door and drop you off, non-stop, at your destination?
I don't think you get it.

I can get a cab, or an uber or ride share to the bus stop for minimal cost. That is a fraction of the cost of what a 10 hour drive would be. So there is really no convenience attached to being dropped at the bus stop, and getting another uber to drop me to the hotel.

And yes, in my life, we have been picked by bus at the house on several occasions. My father had some arrangement when I was a kid,and paid for the convenience.

I think we live in a world where people think that automation is the answer to all problems and you have these tech companies that are doing everything possible to convince people that this is the future. It happened with the hyperloop argument and we now see it with automated cars.

Automated cars offer nothing above what current cars do not offer. Automated buses are even less convenient and practical.


In Asia you already have night buses with bunk beds that cross just highway sections and drop you off 5 minutes from the place you want to be. Believe me you rather fly...
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:26 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:

It does if you can rent an overnight sleeper coach that will pick you up at your front door and drive you directly to your hotel 600 miles away.

No TSA, no lines, no excess baggage fees.

I can already travel overnight on a bus. Or drive my vehicle that distance directly to the hotel.

What is automation doing that cannot be achieved right now? Nothing other than getting rid of a driver.


Automation will reduce travel times by car a lot (and I mean really a lot) because fully automated roads (so no one is driving by himself) will see almost no traffic jams. Most traffic jams are caused by drivers making mistakes and the fact that humans can not predict the future or crash while they try.

If we take the standard 1s reaction time (we could go higher when you see how many idiots drive with a phone in their hands) the 30th car at a traffic light will accelerate with a 30s delay. If all cars are automated and fully communicate with each other, all cars can start moving simultaneously increasing throughput a lot.

Another example is line switching. Every time someone switches the lane on a speed way it causes slight disturbances in the flow of traffic (some other driver will break, some will accelerate to close the gap, etc.) which over time will start to slow every one down. Automation will cut unnecessary direction changes increasing the capacity of the roads.

If you ever were in a fully automated ware house and then step foot into a non automated one you can see the unbearable amount of inefficiencies humans create when hundreds of them have to bring something from A to B compared to machine doing the same work.
If the journey is 600 miles and the average is 80mph, you are still going to take 7 and a half hours minimum to take that trek. The time would be closer to 8 and a half hours, just because you would have to be picked at home thus traffic.

How is this going to be an alternative to people that want less time than on the road? People that know they will get a plane and in an hour be at their destination? Automated vehicles are not that alternative to air travel, and I don't think they are even an alternative to trains or buses. I cannot foresee a situation where a bus with 50 passengers is allowed on the road without a driver monitoring either. If they allow it, several fatal accidents are all it is going to take for policy makers to change their minds.

Mass transit solutions work because of volume, and it is the volume that tends to drive prices down.

We seem to be going through a phase where the thought process is that we can get rid of something that works at volume, break it down to component pieces, hence more expensive and offer people and alternative because it might save an half an hour to an hour. There is also the practical element that is being ignored here. What if something goes wrong? If I get a bus and there is a mechanical issue, a driver will take the vehicle on the side of the road and fix it. If someone is sick, they will try and get them to a hospital, and if a problem arises and they are in communication with other drivers, they will get an alternative route.

So, what is automation on the road going to change? It is not going to be cheaper. It is not going to save on time to a great extent. You are also going to need to build a road where only automated vehicles are allowed, and as usual, they will be tolled or they become a political hot topic. Hire costs.

I wonder why we are so detached from reality at times.
Last edited by Gremlinzzzz on Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:36 am

JonesNL wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
A bus will come to your front door and drop you off, non-stop, at your destination?
I don't think you get it.

I can get a cab, or an uber or ride share to the bus stop for minimal cost. That is a fraction of the cost of what a 10 hour drive would be. So there is really no convenience attached to being dropped at the bus stop, and getting another uber to drop me to the hotel.

And yes, in my life, we have been picked by bus at the house on several occasions. My father had some arrangement when I was a kid,and paid for the convenience.

I think we live in a world where people think that automation is the answer to all problems and you have these tech companies that are doing everything possible to convince people that this is the future. It happened with the hyperloop argument and we now see it with automated cars.

Automated cars offer nothing above what current cars do not offer. Automated buses are even less convenient and practical.


In Asia you already have night buses with bunk beds that cross just highway sections and drop you off 5 minutes from the place you want to be. Believe me you rather fly...
Same thing in South America where some bus lines have ultra comfortable seats that can for a bed. Yet people think that getting rid of a driver and replacement with automation will be a game changer that makes people abandon jets.

People travel using different means for different reasons.
2175301 wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


The bigger argument is that trains are about 100 times more fuel efficient than highway vehicles. Between aerodynamic drag and tire friction; motor vehicles (whatever their energy source) are just plain humongous fuel hogs compared to trains (steel wheels on steel rails does amazing things to fuel efficiency) - not to mention multiple train cars for almost the same frontal and back air drag.
Yep. Trains generally lose money on sections where traffic is not enough to justify the leg, but operations are kept going because sometimes the train might be the only viable option for certain small town communities.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:19 pm

2175301 wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


The bigger argument is that trains are about 100 times more fuel efficient than highway vehicles. Between aerodynamic drag and tire friction; motor vehicles (whatever their energy source) are just plain humongous fuel hogs compared to trains (steel wheels on steel rails does amazing things to fuel efficiency) - not to mention multiple train cars for almost the same frontal and back air drag.


But the irony in the whole situation is that those 100 trucks with 100 drivers are out competing RRs who have that extra long train with only an engineer and conductor. And that is just for the longer leg of the journey. A couple more truck drivers are often needed for each container. Not true of course with deliveries to most factories. There are some interesting imaginings/speculations about what freight trains need to do to really reach their competitive limits. Additionally, maintaining rails is incredibly expensive, particularly if you want those trains to go at least 50-60 mph.
 
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william
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:27 pm

Stitch wrote:
If "Middle of the Market" really is small, then it's arguably better for Boeing from a financial perspective to let Airbus make a couple billion selling a few score of A321XLR for that specific market (as opposed to airlines buying XLRs because they are the most flexible A321 model even if they have no intention of operating them on 3000nm or longer missions) than losing many multiple billions bringing it to market and not selling enough to recover those costs.


That pretty much sums it up.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:53 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


The bigger argument is that trains are about 100 times more fuel efficient than highway vehicles. Between aerodynamic drag and tire friction; motor vehicles (whatever their energy source) are just plain humongous fuel hogs compared to trains (steel wheels on steel rails does amazing things to fuel efficiency) - not to mention multiple train cars for almost the same frontal and back air drag.


But the irony in the whole situation is that those 100 trucks with 100 drivers are out competing RRs who have that extra long train with only an engineer and conductor. And that is just for the longer leg of the journey. A couple more truck drivers are often needed for each container. Not true of course with deliveries to most factories. There are some interesting imaginings/speculations about what freight trains need to do to really reach their competitive limits. Additionally, maintaining rails is incredibly expensive, particularly if you want those trains to go at least 50-60 mph.

Economics are different based on what you are transporting, and how fast it is needed.

Trucks can out-compete trains because they are that last mile solution. They can out-compete jets on cost if goods or materials are not time barred.

Just like passenger transport, freight similarly moves according to how much time is valued. If you want goods fast, you use a plane. If you want an end to end solution from port to destination, you use trucks even if they cost more. If you transporting hazardous cargo, or you are concerned about cost, then the train is there especially at longer distances.

Every kind of good finds its niche just like in passenger transport, and to that end, no one is actually telling us why automated cars are going to be the revolution that kills jets.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:28 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.

I call BS on "certainly". Please show us links for any plausible plans with enough detail to support such a conclusion. I can see a myriad of real-world problems getting it to work. The IT problems are the easier ones. The harder ones are the legal and cost ones.
 
ethernal
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.

I call BS on "certainly". Please show us links for any plausible plans with enough detail to support such a conclusion. I can see a myriad of real-world problems getting it to work. The IT problems are the easier ones. The harder ones are the legal and cost ones.


I assume you're debating the question of whether or not it will be "standard" (i.e. autonomous vehicle only). I agree that is unlikely it will be autonomous-only by 2035. But autonomous as an option? Guaranteed. We're practically already there. Highway driving is as close to a solved problem in AI as you can get; it's the local roads that are typically the issue to autonomous vehicles. And even those, suburban streets in good weather are covered (See Waymo's fully autonomous driving in Chandler), but probably not economically viable yet as a self-driving service (places easy to drive typically represent suburbs with low demand).

I don't think the legal issues of autonomous driving are as bad as everyone makes out to be, at least in terms of mixed-mode (i.e. roads with both autonomous and non-autonomous drivers). Regulators everywhere have expressed openness to allowing it, and the companies behind autonomous vehicles are clearly willing to bankroll the risk which solves the private insurance issue.

I don't envy any airline market forecaster right now. There are so many uncertaintities:

  • How does the step change in acceptance of telecommunication for collaboration impact the long term business travel market?
  • How do remote work and autonomous vehicles impact population distribution (do smaller cities become bigger cities?) Do autonomous vehicles impact the need for hyper-local airports (small airports die off)?
  • How do inevitable carbon taxes and uncertain fuel costs (biofuel mandates, etc) impact the economics of travel?


If the NMA was shaky before, it's shakier than ever - because of market uncertainty.
 
Cdydatzigs
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:05 pm

VV wrote:
Forget electric powered and hydrogen powered commercial passenger transport. It is NOT going to happen.


People like you 100 years ago never thought a machine the size of a two-story building would ever get into the air under its own power either, and yet...
 
Cdydatzigs
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:13 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035...


That's a generous prediction for that technology. If they haven't gotten fully autonomous technology to work right by now (and no, what Tesla is doing is not even close to that), I highly doubt it'll be the standard a mere 14 years from now.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:16 pm

ethernal wrote:
Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.

I call BS on "certainly". Please show us links for any plausible plans with enough detail to support such a conclusion. I can see a myriad of real-world problems getting it to work. The IT problems are the easier ones. The harder ones are the legal and cost ones.


I assume you're debating the question of whether or not it will be "standard" (i.e. autonomous vehicle only). I agree that is unlikely it will be autonomous-only by 2035. But autonomous as an option? Guaranteed. We're practically already there. Highway driving is as close to a solved problem in AI as you can get; it's the local roads that are typically the issue to autonomous vehicles. And even those, suburban streets in good weather are covered (See Waymo's fully autonomous driving in Chandler), but probably not economically viable yet as a self-driving service (places easy to drive typically represent suburbs with low demand).

I don't think the legal issues of autonomous driving are as bad as everyone makes out to be, at least in terms of mixed-mode (i.e. roads with both autonomous and non-autonomous drivers). Regulators everywhere have expressed openness to allowing it, and the companies behind autonomous vehicles are clearly willing to bankroll the risk which solves the private insurance issue.

I don't envy any airline market forecaster right now. There are so many uncertaintities:

  • How does the step change in acceptance of telecommunication for collaboration impact the long term business travel market?
  • How do remote work and autonomous vehicles impact population distribution (do smaller cities become bigger cities?) Do autonomous vehicles impact the need for hyper-local airports (small airports die off)?
  • How do inevitable carbon taxes and uncertain fuel costs (biofuel mandates, etc) impact the economics of travel?


If the NMA was shaky before, it's shakier than ever - because of market uncertainty.

I'm saying I don't think we'll see fully autonomous driving that can hugely increase the capacity of the US freeway system becoming standard by 2035. IMO there are too many hurdles to cross.

Some things that sound cool don't make it past concept or limited deployment stages. Hyperloop for instance seems to be one of those. It ain't dead yet, but it also isn't prevalent either.
 
Gremlinzzzz
Posts: 420
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:28 am

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:32 pm

Cdydatzigs wrote:
VV wrote:
Forget electric powered and hydrogen powered commercial passenger transport. It is NOT going to happen.


People like you 100 years ago never thought a machine the size of a two-story building would ever get into the air under its own power either, and yet...
The biggest problem with hydrogen is infrastructure. How are the policy makers going to mandate that there be a transition to full hydrogen transport?

How are bilateral agreements going to handled? How are countries struggling to expand their own capacity going to transition to a new, more expensive setup?

It reminds me of something like going full electric when it comes to units being produced. Governments talk big, companies tell of how they are environmentally conscious as to what they environmental obligations are.........then nothing happens.

Electric transport is some ways off. Short range aircraft may not be that far off, but medium haul and long haul is another thing altogether.

Revelation wrote:
ethernal wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I call BS on "certainly". Please show us links for any plausible plans with enough detail to support such a conclusion. I can see a myriad of real-world problems getting it to work. The IT problems are the easier ones. The harder ones are the legal and cost ones.


I assume you're debating the question of whether or not it will be "standard" (i.e. autonomous vehicle only). I agree that is unlikely it will be autonomous-only by 2035. But autonomous as an option? Guaranteed. We're practically already there. Highway driving is as close to a solved problem in AI as you can get; it's the local roads that are typically the issue to autonomous vehicles. And even those, suburban streets in good weather are covered (See Waymo's fully autonomous driving in Chandler), but probably not economically viable yet as a self-driving service (places easy to drive typically represent suburbs with low demand).

I don't think the legal issues of autonomous driving are as bad as everyone makes out to be, at least in terms of mixed-mode (i.e. roads with both autonomous and non-autonomous drivers). Regulators everywhere have expressed openness to allowing it, and the companies behind autonomous vehicles are clearly willing to bankroll the risk which solves the private insurance issue.

I don't envy any airline market forecaster right now. There are so many uncertaintities:

  • How does the step change in acceptance of telecommunication for collaboration impact the long term business travel market?
  • How do remote work and autonomous vehicles impact population distribution (do smaller cities become bigger cities?) Do autonomous vehicles impact the need for hyper-local airports (small airports die off)?
  • How do inevitable carbon taxes and uncertain fuel costs (biofuel mandates, etc) impact the economics of travel?


If the NMA was shaky before, it's shakier than ever - because of market uncertainty.

I'm saying I don't think we'll see fully autonomous driving that can hugely increase the capacity of the US freeway system becoming standard by 2035. IMO there are too many hurdles to cross.

Some things that sound cool don't make it past concept or limited deployment stages. Hyperloop for instance seems to be one of those. It ain't dead yet, but it also isn't prevalent either.
I remember Elon Musk being asked in a tweet whether consumers would have a limited time to buy Tesla cars once they have nailed the self driving model, and he said yes.

https://electrek.co/2019/07/08/tesla-will-stop-selling-cars-full-self-driving-elon-musk/

This is the problem with tech companies and their need to try and sell everything as a service instead of a product. A world where we own nothing, but rent everything even personal mobility. The best thing about owning a car is the ability to determine when and where I move, and right now we see people even championing that maybe, just maybe, even aviation and new models wont make sense because a good amount of issues with self driving algorithms might be sorted in the next decade.

Look at an example like Hyperloop and where it is getting the most interest from.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:42 pm

2175301 wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
When full autonomous has become standard, certainly before 2035, the capacity of the US freeway system will hugely increase. It is a system which reaches about everywhere, it has no grade crossings, and door to door times will easily outclass regional trains. Distances over a 1000 miles will still be predominantly aviation. I say that as a rail fan. Freight will hopefully (wistfully!) with improved technology, most IT, will perhaps capture a lot more of the >500 mile trips. Train trips are my favorite, and perhaps shorter fast freights will be their best hope of continuing.
What will automation add to the table that is not already there?

People fly because it saves time. You replacing a driver with automation does nothing to change that.


The bigger argument is that trains are about 100 times more fuel efficient than highway vehicles. Between aerodynamic drag and tire friction; motor vehicles (whatever their energy source) are just plain humongous fuel hogs compared to trains (steel wheels on steel rails does amazing things to fuel efficiency) - not to mention multiple train cars for almost the same frontal and back air drag.


The advantage is nowhere near 100x. If you compare a typical scenario for cars versus a high average load factor scenario for rail, the car option could use over 5 times as much energy. If you compare typical current scenarios for each, it's more like 40% more energy for cars. Electrification of cars should bring a fairly significant decrease in highway vehicle energy use.

Here's some summary figures, including for cars, buses, trains, and planes:
https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10311

Here's a little more detailed look at a couple scenarios each for cars, buses, and trains:
https://afdc.energy.gov/conserve/mass_transit.html

For all the hyperbole about aviation being the fastest growing sector of emissions, it is actually fairly efficient. It also, however, is a very fast way to rack up a lot of miles - a person taking just 3 cross-country flights a year in the US travels more miles than the average daily driver. On the other hand, increasing the average load factor of trains or buses would really push up their efficiency in terms of reducing energy use per passenger mile. The Japanese Shinkansen trains operate with relatively good efficiency due in no small part due to having relatively high seating density, and high load factors.
 
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deltacto
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:19 pm

This is all fascinating about autonomous vehicles ...but what does this have to do with "Boeing CEO's Comments on their next Airplane"?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:43 pm

Stitch wrote:
If "Middle of the Market" really is small, then it's arguably better for Boeing from a financial perspective to let Airbus make a couple billion selling a few score of A321XLR for that specific market (as opposed to airlines buying XLRs because they are the most flexible A321 model even if they have no intention of operating them on 3000nm or longer missions) than losing many multiple billions bringing it to market and not selling enough to recover those costs.

I recall the same said after the 757 ceased production when Boeing said the 737-9ER would pick up the slack, well, the few billion Airbus made then has swelled to the point where the A321 is now pulling a lot more orders as clients move up from the A320 / 737-NG size, so little then has grown to little now also.

Boeing either needs to bit the bullet and do an NMA 767-200 size or just stop talking about, or do we still believe that by talking about it clients will hold off buying A321's?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:55 pm

par13del wrote:
I recall the same said after the 757 ceased production when Boeing said the 737-9ER would pick up the slack, well, the few billion Airbus made then has swelled to the point where the A321 is now pulling a lot more orders as clients move up from the A320 / 737-NG size, so little then has grown to little now also.


The 737-900ER did sell around half of what the 757-200 did and a number of US 752 operators swapped out those planes for 739ER frames.

And yes, the A321 sold almost twice as many frames as the 757-200 did and the A321neo has sold twice as many more again, but the significant majority of A321 operators (of all models) never operated the 757-200 so they were not looking for a "757-sized frame", just something larger than the A320-200 within the Airbus narrowbody family range.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:20 pm

Thread has gone off topic. Feel free to start part 2 where aviation is discussed.

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