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Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:15 pm

Seems a few comments are leaking out in the aftermath of the earnings call via Jon Ostrower:

In discussing the A321XLR TATL market competition between Max and 787, Boeing CEO David Calhoun tells an analyst, while not defining an airplane, “you’re pretty much in the right space where the next airplane developments lean.”

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 8686320643

Calhoun said the next all-new Boeing airplane will be a conventionally powered turbofan and they’re not expecting hydrogen or future propulsion tech to drive the design timing. Wants to rely on bio fuel on big carbon goals. “This is the only answer between now and 2050."

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 2892452865

It seems like they are heading towards a "me too" airplane. IMO this is good news for Team A. This plays right into the advantages their huge installed base and huge A321 lead gives them. Team B will have to come up with an incredibly good product to have any chance at all, IMO. There aren't any big tech "leaps" available to be harvested so I don't see how they will be able to make inroads against the A32x family.
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Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:21 pm

Both A and B seem to wait for that engine.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:30 pm

Noshow wrote:
Both A and B seem to wait for that engine.

Right, but A can sit back and wait for it to appear and for early teething issues to be worked out, since they already have a huge advantage in backlog and their customer base is largely locked into their products. B needs pretty much everything to be perfect right out of the gate to make inroads since they seem to be making a "me too" airplane so they will not have a lot of product differentiation.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems a few comments are leaking out in the aftermath of the earnings call via Jon Ostrower:

In discussing the A321XLR TATL market competition between Max and 787, Boeing CEO David Calhoun tells an analyst, while not defining an airplane, “you’re pretty much in the right space where the next airplane developments lean.”

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 8686320643

Calhoun said the next all-new Boeing airplane will be a conventionally powered turbofan and they’re not expecting hydrogen or future propulsion tech to drive the design timing. Wants to rely on bio fuel on big carbon goals. “This is the only answer between now and 2050."

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 2892452865

It seems like they are heading towards a "me too" airplane. IMO this is good news for Team A. This plays right into the advantages their huge installed base and huge A321 lead gives them. Team B will have to come up with an incredibly good product to have any chance at all, IMO. There aren't any big tech "leaps" available to be harvested so I don't see how they will be able to make inroads against the A32x family.

Yes I saw these as well. I think it depends on when they intend on launching and what technologies they will have by then.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:42 pm

Noshow wrote:
Both A and B seem to wait for that engine.

The engine is ready. RR just announced that they'd stop further work on their Ultrafan project until an aircraft OEM commits to it.

P&W likely won't produce anything new except improved iterations of the GTF.

The only ones who don't have a geared fan yet is GE but I think they're working on it. That'll be the best they can offer in the 20s. Does Boeing really need to wait for GE?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:24 pm

I think they should concentrate on getting the 777-9 out the door first
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:38 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Both A and B seem to wait for that engine.

The engine is ready. RR just announced that they'd stop further work on their Ultrafan project until an aircraft OEM commits to it.

P&W likely won't produce anything new except improved iterations of the GTF.

The only ones who don't have a geared fan yet is GE but I think they're working on it. That'll be the best they can offer in the 20s. Does Boeing really need to wait for GE?

Do you mean the engine is *not* ready?

RR did just announce Ultrafan will be stopped till an OEM commits to it.

PW's parent, Raytheon, just announced bigger layoffs than planned even though they are flush with cash from their military side. They just don't see the point in keeping a big staff around waiting for demand to recover.

GE has suffered revenue shortfalls because they have invested heavily in LEAP yet MAX has been grounded and now COVID is meaning GENX and CFM56 spares income is being impacted.

GE did offer a geared engine to Airbus pre-covid, according to some court documents. Interestingly enough they own Avios, the company that makes the gear for PW. I'm sure there are intellectual property firewalls, but there is a lot of prior art around high powered gears and it's been a long time since it became clear that developing a geared solution would be required sooner or later so I think it's likely GE has a viable path to a geared solution.
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giblets
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:42 pm

Interesting chat in another thread with AB proposing an A322 (+12 seats over the a321)with carbon fibre wings for launch in 2025. This maybe mentioned with a view to spoiling Boeing’s parade and taking the bottom off the NMA market


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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:51 pm

giblets wrote:
Interesting chat in another thread with AB proposing an A322 (+12 seats over the a321)with carbon fibre wings for launch in 2025. This maybe mentioned with a view to spoiling Boeing’s parade and taking the bottom off the NMA market


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Given that a 322 with a new wing would effectively be the same as 77W to 777X I find it hard to believe they can do it on the same type certificate given the new regulatory environment and the FAA's comments that any future new certifications after 777X will have to include a lot more modern cockpit. 2025 is a pipe dream I think at this point.

The good thing is that Airbus now does have a lot more modern cockpit in production (A220) that could probably be adopted to what the FAA wants and then the A322 could have commonality with A220 at least - but then you are talking more about 2028-2029 than 2025. Given the Airbus backlog and the after affects of Covid - no point in having something for 2025 anyways.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:56 pm

If you read it carefully, he might simply be talking about the 737 successor. Everybody expects that 737-8 size will be the small version, around A321 size will be the baseline and somewhere below 753 size will be the stretch.
Last edited by seahawk on Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:56 pm

B would be better off going for the Transonic Truss Braced Wing at this point. A "me too" isn't going to cut it
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
Do you mean the engine is *not* ready?

RR did just announce Ultrafan will be stopped till an OEM commits to it.

No, I meant exactly that. Ultrafan is as ready as it can be until an OEM commits. It doesn't get any more ready by waiting. RR will produce a prototype and run it through the tests by 2022. A production model could be available by ~2025, if you wanted one.

Similarly, P&W's engines are as ready as they're willing to commit to. As you already note, they've just committed to laying off staff.
There won't be a new P&W engine program (aside of GTF improvements) for a couple of years, probably not before end of the decade.


Any new medium airliner with EIS betwen 2025 and 2030 can choose either an RR Ultrafan, a P&W GTF or a geared LEAP derivative. Neither Boeing nor Airbus can sit on their hands and wait for better engines, because there won't be any.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:06 pm

seahawk wrote:
If you read it carefully, he might simply be talking about the 737 successor. Everybody expect that 737-8 size will be the small version, around A321 size will be the baseline and somewhere below 753 size will be the stretch.


Yes, I haven't listened to the whole call but it's definitely not saying "we're making a MoM". Whatever inkling of a business case existed pre-COVID is definitely gone now for that. It has to be NSA, which is hugely problematic as it will be a huge risk item for Boeing (whole new frame, new manufacturing processes, all needing to ramp up quickly). Part of MoM was trying to sequence those things a bit to de-risk NSA.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:18 pm

mxaxai wrote:
No, I meant exactly that. Ultrafan is as ready as it can be until an OEM commits. It doesn't get any more ready by waiting. RR will produce a prototype and run it through the tests by 2022. A production model could be available by ~2025, if you wanted one.

I'm not sure I buy that. All the UF stories I've read suggest their prototype targets T1000-TXWB scale applications. A350NEO was presumably the first application. We even saw ads for Airbus hiring people to work on A350NEO. I think a "A322"/"NSA" sized engine would be pretty close to a total reboot. 2025 seems too optimistic to me.

mxaxai wrote:
Any new medium airliner with EIS betwen 2025 and 2030 can choose either an RR Ultrafan, a P&W GTF or a geared LEAP derivative. Neither Boeing nor Airbus can sit on their hands and wait for better engines, because there won't be any.

I'm in agreement with this. As above, Boeing will not be waiting for something exotic like hydrogen.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:22 pm

So it will be another 737 derivative because of WN
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
No, I meant exactly that. Ultrafan is as ready as it can be until an OEM commits. It doesn't get any more ready by waiting. RR will produce a prototype and run it through the tests by 2022. A production model could be available by ~2025, if you wanted one.

I'm not sure I buy that. All the UF stories I've read suggest their prototype targets T1000-TXWB scale applications. A350NEO was presumably the first application. We even saw ads for Airbus hiring people to work on A350NEO. I think a "A322"/"NSA" sized engine would be pretty close to a total reboot. 2025 seems too optimistic to me.

mxaxai wrote:
Any new medium airliner with EIS betwen 2025 and 2030 can choose either an RR Ultrafan, a P&W GTF or a geared LEAP derivative. Neither Boeing nor Airbus can sit on their hands and wait for better engines, because there won't be any.

I'm in agreement with this. As above, Boeing will not be waiting for something exotic like hydrogen.

So with these engines. What efficiency gains do we think Boeing can get out of thet. Like revelation said they need VERY VERY good numbers to break 321 stronghold
Last edited by Opus99 on Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:23 pm

UA444 wrote:
So it will be another 737 derivative because of WN

It will obviously be a clean sheet. As they’ve said before
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:25 pm

ethernal wrote:
seahawk wrote:
If you read it carefully, he might simply be talking about the 737 successor. Everybody expect that 737-8 size will be the small version, around A321 size will be the baseline and somewhere below 753 size will be the stretch.


Yes, I haven't listened to the whole call but it's definitely not saying "we're making a MoM". Whatever inkling of a business case existed pre-COVID is definitely gone now for that. It has to be NSA, which is hugely problematic as it will be a huge risk item for Boeing (whole new frame, new manufacturing processes, all needing to ramp up quickly). Part of MoM was trying to sequence those things a bit to de-risk NSA.

I understand it will be a risk. But they need to leave the 737 behind. It’s time has come really. Make the move as simple as possible WITHIN ALL SAFETY guidelines. You just have to be a plane maker and build a good plane that people WANT to make the switch. The switch is with it . After all that’s their job
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:27 pm

Opus99 wrote:
UA444 wrote:
So it will be another 737 derivative because of WN

It will obviously be a clean sheet. As they’ve said before

Indeed. I can't see how FAA will sign off on any more derivatives beyond the MAX family, and MAX10 seems to have been kicked into the long grass. Calhoun has hinted FAA will require an all new cockpit on their next airplane.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:00 pm

And... to think they could have had the C Series for a song. Which would have replaced the Max 7, Max 8 and with a 500, the Max 9 and free'd up billions for a new MOM possibly using tech gains from the C- Series programme to speed things along and reduce costs and promoted commonality.

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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:08 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
No, I meant exactly that. Ultrafan is as ready as it can be until an OEM commits. It doesn't get any more ready by waiting. RR will produce a prototype and run it through the tests by 2022. A production model could be available by ~2025, if you wanted one.

I'm not sure I buy that. All the UF stories I've read suggest their prototype targets T1000-TXWB scale applications. A350NEO was presumably the first application. We even saw ads for Airbus hiring people to work on A350NEO. I think a "A322"/"NSA" sized engine would be pretty close to a total reboot. 2025 seems too optimistic to me.

mxaxai wrote:
Any new medium airliner with EIS betwen 2025 and 2030 can choose either an RR Ultrafan, a P&W GTF or a geared LEAP derivative. Neither Boeing nor Airbus can sit on their hands and wait for better engines, because there won't be any.

I'm in agreement with this. As above, Boeing will not be waiting for something exotic like hydrogen.

So with these engines. What efficiency gains do we think Boeing can get out of thet. Like revelation said they need VERY VERY good numbers to break 321 stronghold


Operating efficiency isn't the be all and end all. Where Boeing can gain a lot is by optimizing a new design for very efficient production and use an awful lot of automation on the assembly line to reduce labour cost. Plus do it in SC where Labour costs are lower anyways and you put yourself in a position where you can have a large pricing advantage.

A fully up to date SA more state of the art Aero and lightweight structure should be better than A320/321 with a new wing but maybe a maximum of 3-5% better.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:25 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
And... to think they could have had the C Series for a song.


... and lost money with it, just as Airbus is doing with no hope in sight for breakeven, let alone a return on the original $7 Billion development cost.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:35 pm

Well Boeing could be doing this new cockpit design, software and the like for the 779. This system should be able to be the basis for any further airplanes. No mention of the MAX 10, all quiet on the western front, could this mean the MAX10 is too big of a hurdle.

Certification for any new derivative could have gotten a lot harder. May be why MHI packed it in on the Spacejet. Grandfathering may be capped from here on out.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
It seems like they are heading towards a "me too" airplane. IMO this is good news for Team A. This plays right into the advantages their huge installed base and huge A321 lead gives them. Team B will have to come up with an incredibly good product to have any chance at all, IMO. There aren't any big tech "leaps" available to be harvested so I don't see how they will be able to make inroads against the A32x family.


Good news and bad news. Good news for the reasons you stated, but bad news because Boeing can target any deficiencies in the A320 family that are "baked in" and Airbus can't fix.

I don't think Boeing is going to do anything radical like a transonic truss-braced wing, but I expect a CFRP construction. Given their experience with the 787, they may wish to use all-electric architecture going forward, which can save a lot of weight and simplify systems. I would not be surprised to see folding wingtips included in a clean-sheet Boeing new-build. They may choose to widen the fuselage so it can accomodate LD3-45/46 containers in the hold. They will definitely be generous in the landing gear length. They may offer tinting windows as an option but I think that they will retain sliding shades as an option.

The interior will be a graceful, curvaceous white with cute LED light effects. The flight will be just as long, slow, and boring as they are right now. Boeing will, of course, market the interior renderings with optimistically spacious cabins and show attractive, well-dressed people and their well-behaved children who need nothing more than a single stuffed animal for entertainment sitting back and taking a deep, blissful breath as the sun sets outside the window.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:41 pm

UA444 wrote:
So it will be another 737 derivative because of WN


It will be a new design. Has to be. WN knows it too. Will it be along the lines of a 737 for some sort of commonality, yes, but will be a new frame. Boeing needs to fight back from the Max issues and bringing another 737 will be a marketing nightmare. New Aircraft & New Name will make for a much easier launch.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:41 pm

morrisond wrote:
Operating efficiency isn't the be all and end all. Where Boeing can gain a lot is by optimizing a new design for very efficient production and use an awful lot of automation on the assembly line to reduce labour cost. Plus do it in SC where Labour costs are lower anyways and you put yourself in a position where you can have a large pricing advantage.

A fully up to date SA more state of the art Aero and lightweight structure should be better than A320/321 with a new wing but maybe a maximum of 3-5% better.

Large pricing advantage will only come after spending the $billions to get that new production method up and running at full production volume across the supply chain. The 3-5% gain can be addressed by a new wing for Team A. The transition period will be fraught with peril for Team B. Customers will stop buying MAX once they know Boeing is moving on from it. 787, MAX and now 777X gives customers a lot of reasons to wonder if Boeing can deliver on a clean sheet or not. It would take giant cajones for an executive to decide to be in the front of the line to get what IMO will largely be a "me too" product. The transition time would be perfect for Team A to steal some key customers. Tell them that B is leaving them stranded because no money will be spent on MAX, meanwhile A can sell the current product as a known quantity at sharp prices while making a much smaller transition to a new wing while keeping the rest of the supply chain in place.

JayinKitsap wrote:
Well Boeing could be doing this new cockpit design, software and the like for the 779. This system should be able to be the basis for any further airplanes. No mention of the MAX 10, all quiet on the western front, could this mean the MAX10 is too big of a hurdle.

Certification for any new derivative could have gotten a lot harder. May be why MHI packed it in on the Spacejet. Grandfathering may be capped from here on out.

From the comments we've read, 777X is a simple refresh of the 787 cockpit and systems tech. My reading of Calhoun's earlier comments suggest he accepts that FAA wants to see something more advanced.

Some verbiage from before Calhoun got the job:

Boeing will re-examine flight deck design and operations in response to recommendations from a five-month internal review of the company’s aircraft design and development processes in the wake of the MAX disasters.

The recommendation to partner with airlines to look at the assumptions behind flight deck design and operations is one of five from a special committee formed in April 2019 after the crashes of Ethiopian Airlines and Lion Air crashes.

“Design assumptions have evolved over time, and the company should ensure flight deck designs continue to anticipate the needs of the changing demographics and future pilot populations,’’ a company statement on the review said.

Ref: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/boe ... x-crashes/

Unfortunately, I can't find the more direct quote from Calhoun right now.
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:57 pm

UA444 wrote:
So it will be another 737 derivative because of WN

Opus99 wrote:
It will obviously be a clean sheet. As they’ve said before

Revelation wrote:
Indeed. I can't see how FAA will sign off on any more derivatives beyond the MAX family, and MAX10 seems to have been kicked into the long grass. Calhoun has hinted FAA will require an all new cockpit on their next airplane.


Honestly I don't see how customers will sign off on any more derivatives. Even WN is on record as saying that pilot retaining is not a major cost center for them.


WaywardMemphian wrote:
And... to think they could have had the C Series for a song. Which would have replaced the Max 7, Max 8 and with a 500, the Max 9 and free'd up billions for a new MOM possibly using tech gains from the C- Series programme to speed things along and reduce costs and promoted commonality.


The CSeries would not have really done them as much good as it did Airbus, frankly. The CS100 and CS300 comfortably covers the A318 and A319 in capacity and operators of those models like Air France have chosen it for that purpose. The CS500 could arguably replace the A320, as well, but that would leave Airbus with just the A321 in that family so I think we will not see a CS500 and instead the A320neo and A321neo will continue on in the 165-240 seat role.

In terms of Boeing, there was no 737-6 so the CS100 would not have replaced anything. The CS300 could have replaced the 737-7, but the only two 737-7 customers will also be operating the 737-8 (and one of them the 737-10) so would they really have been interested in adding an all-new model to the fleet when the 737-7 leveraged their existing 737 MAX investment?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:59 pm

A 5% gain in efficiency over a potential rewinged a320 can't be the goal for a clean sheet design with a new certificate, the business case would be dead against the scale of a32x production
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:01 pm

Boeing needs a 1 hr to 4 hr 200 pax to 250 pax workhorse. It also needs a 5,000 nm aircraft to beat the XLR, which shouldn't be too hard with a better wing. The problem is that this requires two different aircraft with different wings, so where does Boeing go first?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:25 pm

Yeah, I am sure Boeing doesn't have engineers running numbers on a rewinged A321, nah, Boeing has nooooooooo idea on just how much more efficient an A321NEO could be with a lighter wing and PIP GTFs. Come on people, theses aren't Anet aviation geeks. And vice versa for Airbus.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:18 pm

william wrote:
Yeah, I am sure Boeing doesn't have engineers running numbers on a rewinged A321, nah, Boeing has nooooooooo idea on just how much more efficient an A321NEO could be with a lighter wing and PIP GTFs. Come on people, theses aren't Anet aviation geeks. And vice versa for Airbus.


You are right that both companies have good and capable engineering staff but....

You would be surprised how stupid managements are when they apply the Peter Principle in their HR departments. (Applies to both A and B, I’ve dealt with both)

Three words “Stovepipe Organizational Structure”

SOS is appropriate for companies that adopt such a structure.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems a few comments are leaking out in the aftermath of the earnings call via Jon Ostrower:

In discussing the A321XLR TATL market competition between Max and 787, Boeing CEO David Calhoun tells an analyst, while not defining an airplane, “you’re pretty much in the right space where the next airplane developments lean.”

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 8686320643

Calhoun said the next all-new Boeing airplane will be a conventionally powered turbofan and they’re not expecting hydrogen or future propulsion tech to drive the design timing. Wants to rely on bio fuel on big carbon goals. “This is the only answer between now and 2050."

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 2892452865

It seems like they are heading towards a "me too" airplane. IMO this is good news for Team A. This plays right into the advantages their huge installed base and huge A321 lead gives them. Team B will have to come up with an incredibly good product to have any chance at all, IMO. There aren't any big tech "leaps" available to be harvested so I don't see how they will be able to make inroads against the A32x family.


How can you highlight those tiny non-technical details to conclude a new airplane from Boeing would be 'me too' vs. Airbus? I mean, I'd be pretty darn worried if they did announce somehow in an earnings call they were going all in on hydrogen, seeing as it makes no economic sense near term. There's no telling what Boeing is really planning to do, nor what the engine bids will be.
 
2175301
Posts: 2052
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
It seems like they are heading towards a "me too" airplane. IMO this is good news for Team A. This plays right into the advantages their huge installed base and huge A321 lead gives them. Team B will have to come up with an incredibly good product to have any chance at all, IMO. There aren't any big tech "leaps" available to be harvested so I don't see how they will be able to make inroads against the A32x family.


I totally disagree. There are no signs of a "me too" airplane.

I believe you are forgetting the goals of the NMA program: No great push in any major technology. Huge push in how parts are made and how the aircraft was going to be assembled. Boeing felt that they could produce a superior aircraft at prices that Airbus would not be able to compete with with their existing aircraft just due to the cost to construction of the different aircraft.

My sense is that Boeing is intending that for their next aircraft, although given the extra time they might have time to add something from the technology side (trussed wings might make it in - depending on where they are with their research on it); and while Airbus might get a few sales in regards to compatibility with existing aircraft in service in an airline... Any hopes of larger orders would pas them by until they themselves come out with a new clean-sheet.

Whatever Boeing comes out with... will not be a "me too" aircraft. It will at least set a new standard on how aircraft are built.

Have a great day,
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:01 pm

How can it be a 737 replacement, Boeing needs to recoup as much as it can from the existing MAX product line.
The weak spot in their line up is the MAX9, 10, 200 so an NMA that sits between the MAX9 and the 787-8 seems to me to be their only option for a new build project starting in the next few years. Based on the crashes and Covid, enough slack exist in the backlog that if a MAX replacement is offered, the bulk of the backlog would be transferred thus the MAX financial black hole gets even deeper. The bean counters may not see such as viable.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:02 pm

This seems to be a bet against battery/battery hybrid not being able to do 180 passengers for 500 miles by 2040. Maybe even 2035.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
giblets
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:07 pm

par13del wrote:
How can it be a 737 replacement, Boeing needs to recoup as much as it can from the existing MAX product line.
The weak spot in their line up is the MAX9, 10, 200 so an NMA that sits between the MAX9 and the 787-8 seems to me to be their only option for a new build project starting in the next few years. .


Which is exactly where airbus is proposing this supposed A322 with a plastic wing. Which will be cheaper and faster to bring to market than an all new design, and commonality will still be a big win.


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TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Both A and B seem to wait for that engine.

Right, but A can sit back and wait for it to appear and for early teething issues to be worked out, since they already have a huge advantage in backlog and their customer base is largely locked into their products. B needs pretty much everything to be perfect right out of the gate to make inroads since they seem to be making a "me too" airplane so they will not have a lot of product differentiation.


From the way you make it sound, maybe it isn't even worth it for Boeing to enter this segment. If the deck is so heavily stacked against them then they should just move on to the 737 replacement.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:48 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
And... to think they could have had the C Series for a song. Which would have replaced the Max 7, Max 8 and with a 500, the Max 9 and free'd up billions for a new MOM possibly using tech gains from the C- Series programme to speed things along and reduce costs and promoted commonality.

If it wasn't for defense and cargo, Boeing would be a Dodo bird.


They had E2 with a relatively modern and mature FBW and dropped out of that JV as well.
All posts are just opinions.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2448
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:15 am

The 'NSA' must be a plane that has a very automated assembly line. CFRP barrels and CFRP wings both can be built in a very automated fashion. It is smart to have two sites doing production - Everett at first for the dress rehearsal, then SC for the primary line. It has to be differentiated from the MAX, 1,500 miles longer range than the MAX, initial 2 models both positioned above the 737-10. Then it can be priced at a premium compared to the MAX to minimize the cannibalization - the 9ER and -10 would have the worst cannibalization.

Revelation wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Operating efficiency isn't the be all and end all. Where Boeing can gain a lot is by optimizing a new design for very efficient production and use an awful lot of automation on the assembly line to reduce labour cost. Plus do it in SC where Labour costs are lower anyways and you put yourself in a position where you can have a large pricing advantage.

A fully up to date SA more state of the art Aero and lightweight structure should be better than A320/321 with a new wing but maybe a maximum of 3-5% better.

Large pricing advantage will only come after spending the $billions to get that new production method up and running at full production volume across the supply chain. The 3-5% gain can be addressed by a new wing for Team A. The transition period will be fraught with peril for Team B. Customers will stop buying MAX once they know Boeing is moving on from it. 787, MAX and now 777X gives customers a lot of reasons to wonder if Boeing can deliver on a clean sheet or not. It would take giant cajones for an executive to decide to be in the front of the line to get what IMO will largely be a "me too" product.


----

JayinKitsap wrote:
Well Boeing could be doing this new cockpit design, software and the like for the 779. This system should be able to be the basis for any further airplanes. No mention of the MAX 10, all quiet on the western front, could this mean the MAX10 is too big of a hurdle.

Certification for any new derivative could have gotten a lot harder. May be why MHI packed it in on the Spacejet. Grandfathering may be capped from here on out.


From the comments we've read, 777X is a simple refresh of the 787 cockpit and systems tech. My reading of Calhoun's earlier comments suggest he accepts that FAA wants to see something more advanced.

Some verbiage from before Calhoun got the job:

Boeing will re-examine flight deck design and operations in response to recommendations from a five-month internal review of the company’s aircraft design and development processes in the wake of the MAX disasters.

The recommendation to partner with airlines to look at the assumptions behind flight deck design and operations is one of five from a special committee formed in April 2019 after the crashes of Ethiopian Airlines and Lion Air crashes.

“Design assumptions have evolved over time, and the company should ensure flight deck designs continue to anticipate the needs of the changing demographics and future pilot populations,’’ a company statement on the review said.

Ref: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/boe ... x-crashes/

Unfortunately, I can't find the more direct quote from Calhoun right now.


I was a bit unclear, the "777X is a simple refresh of the 787 cockpit and systems tech" I agree WAS the case. But if the FAA and CASA want a complete systems certification like a clean sheet, it won't be a simple refresh of the 787. Sure the physical architecture of the control system and how it controls is a refresh, but the code may now be required to review from top to bottom to address those "4 second" assumptions that occurred in the MAX design. Just a few items having higher importance may toss thousands of lines of code. I suspect Boeing is being held tight to the regulations here, they used up all of their grace cards with the MAX debacle. From a systems functionality, with the digital age it is probably better to model the controls from scratch, that way the digital model will be fresh and easily altered from now on.

Even if not used, designing the controls for future single pilot, or reduced crewing on long flights to say 3 pilots - 2 in the seats for landing and takeoff, a 3rd to handle the middle portion of the cruise along with autopilot. Get the architecture right for this should be able to migrate from the 779 to the NSA and to the 764F. At some point the Air Force will be doing an RFP for the next batch of tankers, having the 764F certified by the time of that next RFP will help ensure the next contract stays with Boeing.

A major side point, will Airbus have to go thru the same new requirements for certification. If the playing field is level, they would be required to do this. Can a new wing A322 be grandfathered?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:24 am

Revelation wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Operating efficiency isn't the be all and end all. Where Boeing can gain a lot is by optimizing a new design for very efficient production and use an awful lot of automation on the assembly line to reduce labour cost. Plus do it in SC where Labour costs are lower anyways and you put yourself in a position where you can have a large pricing advantage.

A fully up to date SA more state of the art Aero and lightweight structure should be better than A320/321 with a new wing but maybe a maximum of 3-5% better.

Large pricing advantage will only come after spending the $billions to get that new production method up and running at full production volume across the supply chain. The 3-5% gain can be addressed by a new wing for Team A. The transition period will be fraught with peril for Team B. Customers will stop buying MAX once they know Boeing is moving on from it. 787, MAX and now 777X gives customers a lot of reasons to wonder if Boeing can deliver on a clean sheet or not. It would take giant cajones for an executive to decide to be in the front of the line to get what IMO will largely be a "me too" product. The transition time would be perfect for Team A to steal some key customers. Tell them that B is leaving them stranded because no money will be spent on MAX, meanwhile A can sell the current product as a known quantity at sharp prices while making a much smaller transition to a new wing while keeping the rest of the supply chain in place.


It was a 3-5% advantage vs a 320 with a new wing. It would not be a me to product as it would be far more advanced than the by then Ancient A320 series (from a Systems standpoint).

I still believe they do Big Wing/Small Wing Versions with the Big Wing LR Version First which sits in a slot above MAX and does not Cannibalize it sales. Just as Calhoun stated today - the next aircraft is somewhere between MAX and 787.

However the program can be expensed for as one under program accounting (Big Wing + Small Wing) so all those billions in Industrialization costs can be spread over a very large block of frames (5,000+) further helping what you can sell it for.

Given the new regulatory environment I highly doubt Airbus can do a rewinged 320 as a Derivative - unless they don't ever want to sell it with FAA approval. If the FAA is demanding a more advanced cockpit than 787/777X for Boeing they will never allow Airbus to not meet that standard either. Which basically means Airbus will need to do a clean sheet as well or substantially a new clean sheet as once they start having to redo the cockpit systems you might as well modernize everything else.

Besides - if Boeing doesn't do this (and it could be truss based wing if ready) what else do you think they will/should do?

2175301 gets it - without radical new aero design this will be about production cost where Boeing already has an advantage. We must also remember that Boeing just cut their overhead materially. Airbus has not done that to the same extent.

What is Boeing's alternative?
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2953
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:35 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
And... to think they could have had the C Series for a song. Which would have replaced the Max 7, Max 8 and with a 500, the Max 9 and free'd up billions for a new MOM possibly using tech gains from the C- Series programme to speed things along and reduce costs and promoted commonality.

If it wasn't for defense and cargo, Boeing would be a Dodo bird.


They had E2 with a relatively modern and mature FBW and dropped out of that JV as well.


Boeing is very familiar with FBW. Both the 777 and 787 are full FBW. The E2 family, while excellent, was never going to be a 737 replacement.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
Posts: 271
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:39 am

Revelation wrote:
Large pricing advantage will only come after spending the $billions to get that new production method up and running at full production volume across the supply chain. The 3-5% gain can be addressed by a new wing for Team A. The transition period will be fraught with peril for Team B. Customers will stop buying MAX once they know Boeing is moving on from it. 787, MAX and now 777X gives customers a lot of reasons to wonder if Boeing can deliver on a clean sheet or not. It would take giant cajones for an executive to decide to be in the front of the line to get what IMO will largely be a "me too" product. The transition time would be perfect for Team A to steal some key customers. Tell them that B is leaving them stranded because no money will be spent on MAX, meanwhile A can sell the current product as a known quantity at sharp prices while making a much smaller transition to a new wing while keeping the rest of the supply chain in place.


Rev,
Everything you are saying here has been true for Boeing for the last 10+ years (except we have the added MAX tragedies and 777X delays to further erode investor/customer confidence). Boeing can't keep kicking the can down the road with respect to everything smaller than the 787-9. They just have to build a better 'me-too' plane.

There have been two planes that have been expecially challenging for Boeing to compete against in the last 15 years... They were the A330 and the A320. They addressed the A330 head on, realizing the 767 couldn't do it, they went clean sheet. Man it was painful, but the worst is behind.. 787 is a good plane... and it will be even better when it's significantly improved as a NG/ER whatever followup. They need to address the A320 (especially the A321) head on... still... The MAX can't do it, they need to go clean sheet. Can't take an MD approach and go DC9,MD80,MD90 with the same plane to compete indefinitely in that market..... Can no longer take the usual approach of Jurrasic, Classic, NG, and MAX with the same plane to compete indefinitely in that market either.

Again, Airbus did such a great job defining the A330 and A320, that Boeing was always going to have eventually launch new programs to compete in those segments. Boeing was always going to isolate 737 operators and always going to be vulnerable to Airbus doing incremental improvements on the A320. At some point you just have to do it. Imagine if they had done it instead of wasting time on the 748?

Yes, they need to place the parked frames... yes they need to build and deliver on the backlog... But does anyone believe that backlog will even be halfway built out?... honestly... Boeing admits that to themselves, they will be able to stomach moving on to build a fantastic me too plane.

Clean Sheet Single Aisle program.. built with curent tech: GTF engines w/ leap materials tech, bleedless engines, electrical tech for subsystems, folding wingtips, integrated center tanks, carbon fibre, big windows, containers in the hold,.... but two wings, two landing gears, two engine thrust sizes... Current tech is very good, especially when you start with a foundation that can take proper advantage of it. Cover from 175/200pax and 200/250pax, short haul and medium haul. 2 models each in 2 subfamilies to make 1 family with common fuselage/avionics/cabin.

They did the 757/767 tandem during the economic crisis of the later Carter / early Reagan years... They can do a Tandem built around the same fuselage/avionics/cabin and get back in the game.

Rev,
I know a long post.... as an aviation enthusiast... I'm just getting tired of hearing why Boeing can't do this and won't do that. If everyone really believes that passenger loads will return to 2019 levels by 2027... AWESOME... Let's have some awesome planes, a 1 - 2 - punch, for Airlines to start buying in 2027-2029!

Yeah I know.... long term commitments to an entire new family of aircraft run counter to everyone needing to take profits as income every quarter...even in down times... Different world man.....
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
Posts: 271
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:41 am

morrisond wrote:
I still believe they do Big Wing/Small Wing Versions with the Big Wing LR Version First which sits in a slot above MAX and does not Cannibalize it sales. Just as Calhoun stated today - the next aircraft is somewhere between MAX and 787.

However the program can be expensed for as one under program accounting (Big Wing + Small Wing) so all those billions in Industrialization costs can be spread over a very large block of frames (5,000+) further helping what you can sell it for.

What is Boeing's alternative?


I agree with you. You elegantly stated what I took about 7 paragraphs to say in my long winded monologue....
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8920
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:44 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Boeing is very familiar with FBW. Both the 777 and 787 are full FBW. The E2 family, while excellent, was never going to be a 737 replacement.


Yes, we heard all about their capability it over last 26 months.

Its not about E2 replacing 737, its about having latest and mature FBW architecture which can be implemented without reinventing the wheel or without bean counters deleting few components (or) lines of code.
All posts are just opinions.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2953
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:46 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Boeing is very familiar with FBW. Both the 777 and 787 are full FBW. The E2 family, while excellent, was never going to be a 737 replacement.


Yes, we heard all about their capability it over last 26 months.

Its not about E2 replacing 737, its about having latest and mature FBW architecture which can be implemented without reinventing the wheel or without bean counters deleting few components (or) lines of code.


What are you talking about? MCAS has nothing to do with FBW and you are intentionally trying to spread false information.
 
Opus99
Posts: 1950
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:47 am

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 64.article

Just to add a bit more flesh to what Calhoun said concerning the new jet:

That market segment – also known as the mid-market segment – is “where our development efforts lean”, Calhoun responds.

“We are not going to call out the point design at the moment. This is not the time,” he adds. “We are really progressing well.”

Last January, amid its 737 Max crisis, Boeing said it was pausing NMA development. That jet was to carry some 270 passengers and have 4,000-5,000nm (7,400-9,300km) range.

Calhoun adds that Boeing’s engineers and developers are working on the advanced production and manufacturing technologies such a jet would need to be commercially successful.

“Differentiation at the airframe level… is really, really important,” he says.
 
CX747
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:01 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I still believe they do Big Wing/Small Wing Versions with the Big Wing LR Version First which sits in a slot above MAX and does not Cannibalize it sales. Just as Calhoun stated today - the next aircraft is somewhere between MAX and 787.

However the program can be expensed for as one under program accounting (Big Wing + Small Wing) so all those billions in Industrialization costs can be spread over a very large block of frames (5,000+) further helping what you can sell it for.

What is Boeing's alternative?


I agree with you. You elegantly stated what I took about 7 paragraphs to say in my long winded monologue....


Kudos to both of you on well written posts!!!

I look forward to learning more as Boeing continues down the path to the next design. The company is in the business of making jets that compete in a market place. They are going forward to compete.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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ElroyJetson
Posts: 910
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Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:35 am

A tandem design similar to the 757 and 767 is the way to go with all new tech, common type rating, and flexibility to increase MTOW and engine choice down the line. 180-250 seats is the sweet spot for short to mid range. If the efficiency is 10%-15% better than the existing A320 Neo family it will sell very well.
 
Babyshark
Posts: 283
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:46 am

morrisond wrote:
giblets wrote:
The good thing is that Airbus now does have a lot more modern cockpit in production (A220) that could probably be adopted to what the FAA wants and then the A322 could have commonality with A220 at least - but then you are talking more about 2028-2029 than 2025. Given the Airbus backlog and the after affects of Covid - no point in having something for 2025 anyways.


LMAO.

For some reason some airliners.net folks seem to confuse a Garmin 1000 screen as a more modern cockpit. Its a great cockpit for a corporate jet and king air, but a 15" screen does not mean it's advanced for airline ops. And to say skip the entire Airbus fleet and make it common with the non-Airbus aircraft with the thin order book is laughable.

Make the 322 a EIS2 with some 330 and 350 improvements and call it a day.
Last edited by Babyshark on Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
morrisond
Posts: 3413
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:50 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Large pricing advantage will only come after spending the $billions to get that new production method up and running at full production volume across the supply chain. The 3-5% gain can be addressed by a new wing for Team A. The transition period will be fraught with peril for Team B. Customers will stop buying MAX once they know Boeing is moving on from it. 787, MAX and now 777X gives customers a lot of reasons to wonder if Boeing can deliver on a clean sheet or not. It would take giant cajones for an executive to decide to be in the front of the line to get what IMO will largely be a "me too" product. The transition time would be perfect for Team A to steal some key customers. Tell them that B is leaving them stranded because no money will be spent on MAX, meanwhile A can sell the current product as a known quantity at sharp prices while making a much smaller transition to a new wing while keeping the rest of the supply chain in place.


Rev,
Everything you are saying here has been true for Boeing for the last 10+ years (except we have the added MAX tragedies and 777X delays to further erode investor/customer confidence). Boeing can't keep kicking the can down the road with respect to everything smaller than the 787-9. They just have to build a better 'me-too' plane.

There have been two planes that have been expecially challenging for Boeing to compete against in the last 15 years... They were the A330 and the A320. They addressed the A330 head on, realizing the 767 couldn't do it, they went clean sheet. Man it was painful, but the worst is behind.. 787 is a good plane... and it will be even better when it's significantly improved as a NG/ER whatever followup. They need to address the A320 (especially the A321) head on... still... The MAX can't do it, they need to go clean sheet. Can't take an MD approach and go DC9,MD80,MD90 with the same plane to compete indefinitely in that market..... Can no longer take the usual approach of Jurrasic, Classic, NG, and MAX with the same plane to compete indefinitely in that market either.

Again, Airbus did such a great job defining the A330 and A320, that Boeing was always going to have eventually launch new programs to compete in those segments. Boeing was always going to isolate 737 operators and always going to be vulnerable to Airbus doing incremental improvements on the A320. At some point you just have to do it. Imagine if they had done it instead of wasting time on the 748?

Yes, they need to place the parked frames... yes they need to build and deliver on the backlog... But does anyone believe that backlog will even be halfway built out?... honestly... Boeing admits that to themselves, they will be able to stomach moving on to build a fantastic me too plane.

Clean Sheet Single Aisle program.. built with curent tech: GTF engines w/ leap materials tech, bleedless engines, electrical tech for subsystems, folding wingtips, integrated center tanks, carbon fibre, big windows, containers in the hold,.... but two wings, two landing gears, two engine thrust sizes... Current tech is very good, especially when you start with a foundation that can take proper advantage of it. Cover from 175/200pax and 200/250pax, short haul and medium haul. 2 models each in 2 subfamilies to make 1 family with common fuselage/avionics/cabin.

They did the 757/767 tandem during the economic crisis of the later Carter / early Reagan years... They can do a Tandem built around the same fuselage/avionics/cabin and get back in the game.

Rev,
I know a long post.... as an aviation enthusiast... I'm just getting tired of hearing why Boeing can't do this and won't do that. If everyone really believes that passenger loads will return to 2019 levels by 2027... AWESOME... Let's have some awesome planes, a 1 - 2 - punch, for Airlines to start buying in 2027-2029!

Yeah I know.... long term commitments to an entire new family of aircraft run counter to everyone needing to take profits as income every quarter...even in down times... Different world man.....


Totally agree. I expect them to do an Equity raise sooner rather than later to fund the next chapter and retire some debt. Now that they have started to clean up the books that sooner may be quite soon (equity raise). I would not be surprised by an announcement on what comes next within the next 18 months. They have done enough studies that it should be just a matter of picking one and going for it. Calhoun will want to make his mark and once they get a handle on how long long it takes to certify in the new era they can properly define the program in terms of length and cost. The 777X experience should give them that knowledge.

Either this or basically concede defeat and let the MAX run out. They really need to get started to start delivering the next solution before the end of the decade.
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