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2175301
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Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:56 pm

Boeing lost $8.4 Billion, and 1st 777X deliver is now scheduled for 2023.

I expect that they will also have a loss in 2021, which should be smaller as they will have delivered many of the parked 737Max's.


https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... dlines_hed
 
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janders
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:08 pm

Feel free to discuss the Boeing financial news from today here.

For 777X comments, continue in the existing discussion since this morning >> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1455929
 
chiad
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:14 pm

2175301 wrote:
Boeing lost $8.4 Billion, and 1st 777X deliver is now scheduled for 2023.

I expect that they will also have a loss in 2021, which should be smaller as they will have delivered many of the parked 737Max's.


https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... dlines_hed


I think the full year loss was $12 Billion. The $8.4 Billion was in the fourth quarter alone.
 
max999
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:27 am

I would not be surprised if Boeing gets split up into two different companies - military and commercial.

Wall street and Boeing shareholders are probably angry that the commercial side is dragging down their investments. They could convince the board to split the company with the current shareholders owning the profitable military side. While the commerical side will be spun off into its own company or be sold to a competitor. It would be the ultimate irony if the likes of bombardier or embraer purchased Boeing commercial.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:40 am

Interesting is the hint, that they might have to make another write of for the 787 line. That is speculation right now but that could also ruin 2021 (financially), especially together with slow (and heavily discounted) 737 deliveries. Good for Boeing is that the 767 (F and Tanker) and 777F should make money.

Also positive cash flow is only expected in 2022. So we will have another year of losses coming.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/boeing-ba-q4-2020-earnings.html

https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/im-sure-glad-2020-is-in-the-rear-view-mirror-david-calhoun-boeing-ceo/
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:44 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Interesting is the hint, that they might have to make another write of for the 787 line. That is speculation right now but that could also ruin 2021 (financially), especially together with slow (and heavily discounted) 737 deliveries. Good for Boeing is that the 767 (F and Tanker) and 777F should make money.

Also positive cash flow is only expected in 2022. So we will have another year of losses coming.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/boeing-ba-q4-2020-earnings.html

https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/im-sure-glad-2020-is-in-the-rear-view-mirror-david-calhoun-boeing-ceo/

Boeing has a long way to go. But they will get there eventually
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:52 am

Opus99 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Interesting is the hint, that they might have to make another write of for the 787 line. That is speculation right now but that could also ruin 2021 (financially), especially together with slow (and heavily discounted) 737 deliveries. Good for Boeing is that the 767 (F and Tanker) and 777F should make money.

Also positive cash flow is only expected in 2022. So we will have another year of losses coming.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/boeing-ba-q4-2020-earnings.html

https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/im-sure-glad-2020-is-in-the-rear-view-mirror-david-calhoun-boeing-ceo/

Boeing has a long way to go. But they will get there eventually


I do not doubt that, what I wonder though is the actual numbers of BCA. Because as far as I understood the 12B$ annual loss was for the whole group. Some of that must have been offset by the other Boeing branches (Military, Space). So I wonder how bad it really looks at BCA at the moment.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:07 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Interesting is the hint, that they might have to make another write of for the 787 line. That is speculation right now but that could also ruin 2021 (financially), especially together with slow (and heavily discounted) 737 deliveries. Good for Boeing is that the 767 (F and Tanker) and 777F should make money.

Also positive cash flow is only expected in 2022. So we will have another year of losses coming.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/boeing-ba-q4-2020-earnings.html

https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/im-sure-glad-2020-is-in-the-rear-view-mirror-david-calhoun-boeing-ceo/

Boeing has a long way to go. But they will get there eventually


I do not doubt that, what I wonder though is the actual numbers of BCA. Because as far as I understood the 12B$ annual loss was for the whole group. Some of that must have been offset by the other Boeing branches (Military, Space). So I wonder how bad it really looks at BCA at the moment.

I think it’s pretty bad. That’s why they used Covid environment to get a lot of their balance sheet.

But it helps with the what you’ll see next year. Boeing will probably make a loss BUT they will sell it to us an improvement on this year because it probably (hopefully) won’t be as bad.

They just need to keep pushing. Focus on getting your programs to their optimum level within constraints of external factors. The MAX is back good job. Sort out the 787s, get your défense and space in order. Move with the 777X. You have a monopoly on freighters continue to look for opportunities there. Whatever forward Los comes they should swallow it. They must focus on regaining stability.
 
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:39 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Good for Boeing is that the 767 (F and Tanker) and 777F should make money.


I was under the impression Boeing is currently losing money on the 767 Tanker considering all the charges they've made against that contract. In the longer term it may well become cash positive but that's quite a few years away.
 
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:49 am

Opus99 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Boeing has a long way to go. But they will get there eventually


I do not doubt that, what I wonder though is the actual numbers of BCA. Because as far as I understood the 12B$ annual loss was for the whole group. Some of that must have been offset by the other Boeing branches (Military, Space). So I wonder how bad it really looks at BCA at the moment.

I think it’s pretty bad. That’s why they used Covid environment to get a lot of their balance sheet.

But it helps with the what you’ll see next year. Boeing will probably make a loss BUT they will sell it to us an improvement on this year because it probably (hopefully) won’t be as bad.

They just need to keep pushing. Focus on getting your programs to their optimum level within constraints of external factors. The MAX is back good job. Sort out the 787s, get your défense and space in order. Move with the 777X. You have a monopoly on freighters continue to look for opportunities there. Whatever forward Los comes they should swallow it. They must focus on regaining stability.


Errr... no. There´s still the 800lb gorilla on the books in form of the deferred production costs for the 787, which need to be acknowledge at one point of time. With the market in doldrumms for years to come one can safely assume that a) production needs to be cut [done], b) pricing power will be much lower thus the allocatable profit per plane will be much lower and c) the accounting block assumed needs to be question again. All of it points towards another write down for the 787 down the road, and probably a hefty one.

Move on and make the best out of it is certaily the best what can be done currently. And try to sell freighters now - I think that´s another window of opportunity closing with the 777-300ER(F) getting to the market soon, and a cargo market which - in all likelyhood - won´t run on the same pace for years to come and will settle back with a major impact of new orders (combination of many used planes available and market retracting).
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:03 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

I do not doubt that, what I wonder though is the actual numbers of BCA. Because as far as I understood the 12B$ annual loss was for the whole group. Some of that must have been offset by the other Boeing branches (Military, Space). So I wonder how bad it really looks at BCA at the moment.

I think it’s pretty bad. That’s why they used Covid environment to get a lot of their balance sheet.

But it helps with the what you’ll see next year. Boeing will probably make a loss BUT they will sell it to us an improvement on this year because it probably (hopefully) won’t be as bad.

They just need to keep pushing. Focus on getting your programs to their optimum level within constraints of external factors. The MAX is back good job. Sort out the 787s, get your défense and space in order. Move with the 777X. You have a monopoly on freighters continue to look for opportunities there. Whatever forward Los comes they should swallow it. They must focus on regaining stability.


Errr... no. There´s still the 800lb gorilla on the books in form of the deferred production costs for the 787, which need to be acknowledge at one point of time. With the market in doldrumms for years to come one can safely assume that a) production needs to be cut [done], b) pricing power will be much lower thus the allocatable profit per plane will be much lower and c) the accounting block assumed needs to be question again. All of it points towards another write down for the 787 down the road, and probably a hefty one.

Move on and make the best out of it is certaily the best what can be done currently. And try to sell freighters now - I think that´s another window of opportunity closing with the 777-300ER(F) getting to the market soon, and a cargo market which - in all likelyhood - won´t run on the same pace for years to come and will settle back with a major impact of new orders (combination of many used planes available and market retracting).

Depends on when they write it off. I don't know if theyll write it off this year, if they don't then they will try and spin an improvement.
 
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:15 pm

SamYeager2016 wrote:
I was under the impression Boeing is currently losing money on the 767 Tanker considering all the charges they've made against that contract. In the longer term it may well become cash positive but that's quite a few years away.


According to the results published “ Fourth-quarter operating margin increased to 7.4 percent reflecting more favorable performance on multiple programs compared with the same period last year, partially offset by a $275 million pre-tax charge on the KC-46A Tanker program primarily due to production inefficiencies including impacts of COVID-19 disruption.”

Source https://investors.boeing.com/investors/ ... fault.aspx
 
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:50 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Interesting is the hint, that they might have to make another write of for the 787 line. That is speculation right now but that could also ruin 2021 (financially), especially together with slow (and heavily discounted) 737 deliveries. Good for Boeing is that the 767 (F and Tanker) and 777F should make money.

Also positive cash flow is only expected in 2022. So we will have another year of losses coming.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/boeing-ba-q4-2020-earnings.html

https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/im-sure-glad-2020-is-in-the-rear-view-mirror-david-calhoun-boeing-ceo/

787 write down seems likely. Clearly KPAE is closing sooner than anticipated. Clearly going from 14/month to 5/month and knowing COVID is likely to have long term effects on premium international flying means adjustments need to be made. Maybe they are waiting for the KPAE closure to take the write down?

I also read the markets knew that sooner or later the 77X delays would require a reckoning, so weren't particularly shocked by this quarter's results.
 
docmtl
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:19 pm

It becomes understandable why Boeing dropped the Embraer Commercial Division purchase last year, they need every penny they can get.
 
Jetport
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:09 pm

Boeing double upgraded at Morgan Stanley.

"Boeing got all the bad news out in its “kitchen sink” earnings report on Wednesday, sending earnings estimates down and providing a “clear runway for Boeing” stock, Liwag said, according to Bloomberg."

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/boe ... _ven=YAHOO
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion Loss, Delays 777X to 2023

Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Interesting is the hint, that they might have to make another write of for the 787 line. That is speculation right now but that could also ruin 2021 (financially), especially together with slow (and heavily discounted) 737 deliveries. Good for Boeing is that the 767 (F and Tanker) and 777F should make money.

Also positive cash flow is only expected in 2022. So we will have another year of losses coming.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/boeing-ba-q4-2020-earnings.html

https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/im-sure-glad-2020-is-in-the-rear-view-mirror-david-calhoun-boeing-ceo/

787 write down seems likely. Clearly KPAE is closing sooner than anticipated. Clearly going from 14/month to 5/month and knowing COVID is likely to have long term effects on premium international flying means adjustments need to be made. Maybe they are waiting for the KPAE closure to take the write down?

I also read the markets knew that sooner or later the 77X delays would require a reckoning, so weren't particularly shocked by this quarter's results.


Yes. I anticipate that most of the 787 deferred program accounting write-down to occur in either 1st or 2nd quarter of 2021, with a modest closing of the Seattle line write-down in 3rd or 4th quarter. Boeing likely wants to get the largest bad news out of the way sooner in the year. After that, I think that Boeing will likely show a profit for the subsequent quarters... although a loss for the entire year.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:56 pm

Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/
Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:39 am

scbriml wrote:
Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.


Not by some of us. ;)

As I noted, this likely explains the large write-down for the 777X program as this puts the program in a Forward Loss position.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:42 am

scbriml wrote:
Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/
Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.


Like Revelation mentioned in one thread, Boeing has become a master in hiding info. All that talk about transparency was just that...
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:46 am

JonesNL wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/
Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.


Like Revelation mentioned in one thread, Boeing has become a master in hiding info. All that talk about transparency was just that...

Is it really hidden? You can go on the website and see for yourself.

They reduced the market outlook at the earnings call. Then updated the website for the accounting adjustments so what did they hide?
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:00 am

scbriml wrote:
Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/
Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.


Ooof, that's pretty brutal, but I guess relatively unsurprising. I've never been the most vocal optimist on the 777X, but this is going to hurt. If it is indeed the case that many 777Xs are cancelled/converted (even if it's fewer than the 118 Boeing has categorised as iffy) then I struggle to see it being the money-maker it needs to be going forward. With the state of the world airlines will not be as keen on a large aircraft, though an efficient and good aircraft it may be.
 
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:30 am

COVID won't be forever. Traffic will eventually return and so will the market for 300-plus seat aircraft.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:51 am

Stitch wrote:
COVID won't be forever. Traffic will eventually return and so will the market for 300-plus seat aircraft.


It will still be a long time before it's back to 2019 levels, and airlines will be hit hard, even those that survive. Will enough airlines be able to afford a large aircraft? And will this all happen before the 777X goes too far into the red? The longer it goes on, the worse it gets.
 
Jetport
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:57 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
COVID won't be forever. Traffic will eventually return and so will the market for 300-plus seat aircraft.


It will still be a long time before it's back to 2019 levels, and airlines will be hit hard, even those that survive. Will enough airlines be able to afford a large aircraft? And will this all happen before the 777X goes too far into the red? The longer it goes on, the worse it gets.


No, it doesn't get worse the longer it goes on, it will likely get better, especially since the 777X has no direct competition. It doesn't matter if the program is in the red, or if the program ever makes money as a total program. Virtually all of the development money has been spent, that boat sailed when Boeing committed to the 777X program. As long as Boeing can see a case for the the 777X to be cash flow positive going forward they will keep the program going. This is the same reason Airbus keeps the A330NEO and A220 programs going. The A330NEO is the program with the lowest chance to ever be cash flow positive, even far into the future. Airbus must see something in the A330NEO no one else can see.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:01 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
COVID won't be forever. Traffic will eventually return and so will the market for 300-plus seat aircraft.


It will still be a long time before it's back to 2019 levels, and airlines will be hit hard, even those that survive. Will enough airlines be able to afford a large aircraft? And will this all happen before the 777X goes too far into the red? The longer it goes on, the worse it gets.


I try to avoid the temptation to attempt a specific prediction, but if it takes the industry 5 years to recover to its previous high, it would set a record going back to at least 1970. Here's some notable overall 5 year global passenger numbers in the year listed and the cause of the trouble that followed:

2007 Global Financial Crisis: +31%
2000 dotcom Bubble and 9/11 attacks: +18%
1979 Oil Crisis: + 13%

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR

Of course, this crisis is far deeper, and as much as I'd like to believe eliminating the root cause makes traffic jump almost immediately back to where it was before because of economies growing due to stimulus efforts and low interest-rates, I have no confidence in that happening. Depth of the crisis does not dictate the duration, but there's numerous reasons that don't need repeating to worry about even the 2024 time frame kicked around the industry as the current most prevalent forecast for recovery.

That said, I can easily believe Boeing is willing to keep the 777X program running even at slight production cost loss for at least 5 years while waiting for demand to recover, but probably not 10 years. Their first priority, of course, will be trying to make the production line profitable at low rates.

When demand recovers, the capital will be there to invest in the aircraft needed to make money off of the demand. My concern for the 777X is based less on whether airlines will be able to afford it, and more on how much the trends of market fragmentation and frequency continue.
 
sincx
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:45 am

I, for one, will not mourn an unexpectedly early demise of 3-4-3 16.8"-wide seats.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:48 am

sincx wrote:
I, for one, will not mourn an unexpectedly early demise of 3-4-3 16.8"-wide seats.


Good thing the 777X widened the interior then. I think at least 17.3" or higher are now possible.
 
sincx
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:51 am

morrisond wrote:
sincx wrote:
I, for one, will not mourn an unexpectedly early demise of 3-4-3 16.8"-wide seats.


Good thing the 777X widened the interior then. I think at least 17.3" or higher are now possible.


The 747 had an interior cabin width of 6.08m, and had 17.2" seats. The 777X has an interior cabin width of 5.97m, which might get you 17.0", or slightly more with narrower-than-standard aisles. An improvement from the 777's 5.87m, but 10 abreast 777/777X are and will still be the least comfortable long-haul plane in economy, all other things equal.
 
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:09 am

Crazy times at Boeing. I knew that Emirates wanted to convert some more 777Xs to 787s but never considered that they might cancel the whole thing.

I've thought for a while that they'd be better off canceling the 777X and converting everyone's orders to 787s which would bring the 787's productionrate up to a more healthy andprofitable level. This is what half of the 777X customerbase seems to want anyway. Boeing won't do it due to pride, but I'm sure that the negative cashflow of the 777X will be a blight on Boeing's balance sheet for a long time to come.

MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
COVID won't be forever. Traffic will eventually return and so will the market for 300-plus seat aircraft.


It will still be a long time before it's back to 2019 levels, and airlines will be hit hard, even those that survive. Will enough airlines be able to afford a large aircraft? And will this all happen before the 777X goes too far into the red? The longer it goes on, the worse it gets.


I think its foolish to expect a big glut of orders for large widebodies as soon as traffic levels start to recover. Airlines have lost record amounts of money and accumulated record levels of debt in this crisis. As things return to normal, airlines will prioritize managing (ie reducing) their debt load. That means keeping owned aircraft longer, extending leases on leased ones and being timid with future wide body acquisitions - replacing large widebodies (like 77Ws) with smaller, low risk ones (like the 787-9).

The fact that no lessors have nor will order the 777X further diminishes its chances.

Jetport wrote:
As long as Boeing can see a case for the the 777X to be cash flow positive going forward they will keep the program going. This is the same reason Airbus keeps the A330NEO and A220 programs going. The A330NEO is the program with the lowest chance to ever be cash flow positive, even far into the future. Airbus must see something in the A330NEO no one else can see.


Does anybody credible actually see the 777X program ever being cashflow positive? I don't see that happening, especially at the two a month production rate.

At least the A330neo shares much of its production line with the A350 which helps to spread fixed costs.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:16 am

Jetport wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
COVID won't be forever. Traffic will eventually return and so will the market for 300-plus seat aircraft.


It will still be a long time before it's back to 2019 levels, and airlines will be hit hard, even those that survive. Will enough airlines be able to afford a large aircraft? And will this all happen before the 777X goes too far into the red? The longer it goes on, the worse it gets.


No, it doesn't get worse the longer it goes on, it will likely get better, especially since the 777X has no direct competition. It doesn't matter if the program is in the red, or if the program ever makes money as a total program. Virtually all of the development money has been spent, that boat sailed when Boeing committed to the 777X program. As long as Boeing can see a case for the the 777X to be cash flow positive going forward they will keep the program going. This is the same reason Airbus keeps the A330NEO and A220 programs going. The A330NEO is the program with the lowest chance to ever be cash flow positive, even far into the future. Airbus must see something in the A330NEO no one else can see.


Having no competition is a moot point if airlines don't want/can't afford a large aircraft. With so many uncertain orders and no concrete outlook even being cash-flow positive will be a huge challenge.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:06 am

MrHMSH wrote:
It will still be a long time before it's back to 2019 levels, and airlines will be hit hard, even those that survive. Will enough airlines be able to afford a large aircraft? And will this all happen before the 777X goes too far into the red? The longer it goes on, the worse it gets.


Boeing will just have to play the long game like they did when demand for the 747 and 767 collapsed. They can do ultra-low-rate production for a few years, pushing out one frame every couple of months. They can also prioritize the 777X freighter development and put it into production if cargo demand recovers strongly first.

Yeah, they'll lose money on the program for a time, but they can write off the entire deferred production cost in the interim (as they eventually did with the 747-8 program) to "clear the deck" and this will allow them to book stronger profits when demand does recover as the frames won't be saddled with retiring any accrued debt beyond their direct production cost.
 
vfw614
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:44 am

scbriml wrote:
Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/
Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.


So that would be, I assume:

60x QR
53x EK
20x LH
20x NH
20x SQ
18x BA

Not sure about Lufthansa, though. Didn't they reduce firm orders to just 6 when they ordered 787s and converted 14 firm orders into options? So I take Leeham is assuming that they will take all 20 (which probably is the only sensible strategy unless they can cancel/convert the whole 777X-order).

An orderbook consisting of 6 airlines, with 60 per cent of the orders from just two.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:48 am

Stitch wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
It will still be a long time before it's back to 2019 levels, and airlines will be hit hard, even those that survive. Will enough airlines be able to afford a large aircraft? And will this all happen before the 777X goes too far into the red? The longer it goes on, the worse it gets.


Boeing will just have to play the long game like they did when demand for the 747 and 767 collapsed. They can do ultra-low-rate production for a few years, pushing out one frame every couple of months. They can also prioritize the 777X freighter development and put it into production if cargo demand recovers strongly first.

Yeah, they'll lose money on the program for a time, but they can write off the entire deferred production cost in the interim (as they eventually did with the 747-8 program) to "clear the deck" and this will allow them to book stronger profits when demand does recover as the frames won't be saddled with retiring any accrued debt beyond their direct production cost.



Yeah, but can they afford to lose money on the 777X when they are looking to write off profits off the 787 due to the lower production rate and still catching up with the 737MAX?
 
vfw614
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:11 am

Let's hope they don't come to the conclusion at some point that building passenger planes just is not worth it.... they had nothing but trouble with the 787, 747-8, 777X and 737MAX programmes. The last that sort of went smoothly were the 737NG and the 777 from 20+ years ago....
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:04 pm

So as it stands, it will sell even less than the last VLA? Didn't expect that!
 
JonesNL
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:30 pm

Opus99 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/


Like Revelation mentioned in one thread, Boeing has become a master in hiding info. All that talk about transparency was just that...

Is it really hidden? You can go on the website and see for yourself.

They reduced the market outlook at the earnings call. Then updated the website for the accounting adjustments so what did they hide?


It was not mentioned in the earnings call at all. If they were transparent they would have told the world that the amount of firm orders was reduced by 40%...
 
majano
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:44 pm

vfw614 wrote:

So that would be, I assume:

60x QR
53x EK
20x LH
20x NH
20x SQ
18x BA

An orderbook consisting of 6 airlines, with 60 per cent of the orders from just two.

I would hope EK can take more than 53 frames, but in any event more examples than QR. I agree that EY and CX are unlikely to accept any of their orders.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:50 pm

vfw614 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/
Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.


So that would be, I assume:

60x QR
53x EK
20x LH
20x NH
20x SQ
18x BA

Not sure about Lufthansa, though. Didn't they reduce firm orders to just 6 when they ordered 787s and converted 14 firm orders into options? So I take Leeham is assuming that they will take all 20 (which probably is the only sensible strategy unless they can cancel/convert the whole 777X-order).

An orderbook consisting of 6 airlines, with 60 per cent of the orders from just two.

Those extra 14 were never firm. They were LOIs to order and they converted them to options. So the firm still remains 20. It was initially 20 firm orders and 14 loi to order making 34 commitments
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:10 pm

sincx wrote:
morrisond wrote:
sincx wrote:
I, for one, will not mourn an unexpectedly early demise of 3-4-3 16.8"-wide seats.


Good thing the 777X widened the interior then. I think at least 17.3" or higher are now possible.


The 747 had an interior cabin width of 6.08m, and had 17.2" seats. The 777X has an interior cabin width of 5.97m, which might get you 17.0", or slightly more with narrower-than-standard aisles. An improvement from the 777's 5.87m, but 10 abreast 777/777X are and will still be the least comfortable long-haul plane in economy, all other things equal.


No - the 777X will take the same seats as 787 - 17.3". You may be thinking of the A350 10W at 16.4" as the most uncomfortable aircraft in Economy.

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2019/05/2 ... r-markets/

The front row of 10 W 777W with fold out tray tables have seat widths in the low 16's - however I believe that normal Y seats on 777W are already at 17" (AC 777W). 777X interior widening added 4" or about .4" per seat taking it to 787 17.3"ish seat widths.
 
Capricorn
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:19 pm

What IMO is a big reason why the 777X future is clouded, is the relative small list of potential new 777X customers, that have not yet ordered any. Most of the current customers fall into the category of large single hub operators (CX, SQ, EK, QR, EY) or operators with heavily slot constrained airports (BA with LHR and NH with HND). Only LH as a multi-hub airline is the odd one out of the current 777X customers, but then again I generally don't really understand LH's fleet strategy.

IMO one of the interesting take aways from the Leeham News article is:

No confirmation has been forthcoming from Cathay, which is financially struggling due to China’s crackdown on democracy demonstrations and COVID. Hong Kong Airport will also receive a third runway by 2025, which will diminish the need for an aircraft of the 777X size.

Singapore Airlines is under COVID pressure, and Singapore Airport will receive another runway by the mid 2020s.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/

Interesting assumption that airport expansion works against the 777X, which I think is to some degree is true.

This makes me wonder about the prospects of the 777X at carriers like TK, which does not have any slot problems with the opening of the new IST airport. Neither are multi hub airlines like LATAM, VN and so on likely prospective customers, as they probably have very little need for a large plane. They can always steer connecting traffic through more than one hub.

That leaves IMO KL, KE, CI, QF, BR and may the likes of SU, TG, AI (if they only focus on DEL) and some of the China 3, but then again they started to open up secondary hubs like CA did in CTU. But even then, I think the numbers these carriers will order a relatively small.

I think JL and AF are unlikely, as JL has the 35K on order and with the French state getting a larger role in AF, an additional Airbus order seems very likely.

Edit: Down the road VS might be a potential customer as well if no LHR expansion is happening.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:57 pm

scbriml wrote:
Almost unnoticed among the headlines, Boeing has quietly moved 118 777Xs under ASC 606, reducing the realistic 777X backlog to 191 firm orders.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/02/01/exclu ... rs-remain/
Boeing confirmed to LNA there are 191 firm orders for the X, down from 309 previously.

Bloomberg finally noticed.

For some clarity:

Boeing Co. signaled it’s at risk of losing more than a third of its 777X order haul because the latest delay to the behemoth jet’s debut -- now slated for late 2023 -- gives some customers the right to walk away from sales contracts.

Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... test-delay

Since you're a stickler for correctness, I'll suggest that I think "at risk" is a better description than "realistic". The customers can now cancel due to Boeing's tardiness, but we have not heard what their plans are. I think it's realistic that some of these at-risk orders are deferred rather than canceled.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:05 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

Like Revelation mentioned in one thread, Boeing has become a master in hiding info. All that talk about transparency was just that...

Is it really hidden? You can go on the website and see for yourself.

They reduced the market outlook at the earnings call. Then updated the website for the accounting adjustments so what did they hide?


It was not mentioned in the earnings call at all. If they were transparent they would have told the world that the amount of firm orders was reduced by 40%...

I guess the meaning of the word transparency has taken a new meaning, previously it was regarded as hiding information, items one had to legally declare to various government entities was not included. Now that we have intelligent media whose job is to report and not investigate, transparency could take on a whole new meaning, no ambush tactics anymore.
 
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PepeTheFrog
Posts: 406
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
Since you're a stickler for correctness, I'll suggest that I think "at risk" is a better description than "realistic". The customers can now cancel due to Boeing's tardiness, but we have not heard what their plans are. I think it's realistic that some of these at-risk orders are deferred rather than canceled.


Or convert to another type.

So Emirates, you guys want to have some more 787s eh? Feel free to convert some.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:59 pm

Revelation wrote:
Since you're a stickler for correctness, I'll suggest that I think "at risk" is a better description than "realistic".


I applied the term "realistic" to the 191 orders that Boeing still considers firm (per their statement to LNA). Boeing must consider the 118 they moved to ASC 606 sufficiently "unrealistic" or "at risk" to not include them in their firm backlog summary.

I think we're saying the same thing. :?
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:02 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Since you're a stickler for correctness, I'll suggest that I think "at risk" is a better description than "realistic". The customers can now cancel due to Boeing's tardiness, but we have not heard what their plans are. I think it's realistic that some of these at-risk orders are deferred rather than canceled.


Or convert to another type.

So Emirates, you guys want to have some more 787s eh? Feel free to convert some.

Maybe some -10s? I know they pulled out because of the engines. But I don’t understand how EY is able to make it work and they’re not because of the hot weather.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:24 pm

Stitch wrote:
COVID won't be forever. Traffic will eventually return and so will the market for 300-plus seat aircraft.


I don't think the market will be back before 2022 at the earliest.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:28 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Yeah, but can they afford to lose money on the 777X when they are looking to write off profits off the 787 due to the lower production rate and still catching up with the 737MAX?


Yes.

They still have access to significant capital on the open markets, plus they have other programs that are generating revenue and worse-case they just go to the US government for a bail-out.

Also, let us not forget a large portion of the latest loss was write-offs, so they money had already been spent/lost in previous quarters so the actual damage to the bank account last quarter was not nearly as large as that.
 
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747classic
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:44 pm

I'm not surprised at all : I love when everything comes together ( free quote of Kolonel John "Hannibal" Smith)

- long time mismanagment at all aircraft types
- too much outsourcing, loosing overall control (787)
- economy first, safety second (737max)
- poor quality control, all types, especially 787, KC-46A
- fixed price military contracts, KC-46A
- lost (military and civil) engineering expertice , keep sending more beancounters, 787, 747-8, KC-46A
- try to defeat the unions, keep sending more inexperienced, cheaper "non union" workers 787 at PAE and CHS
- covid -19

The only succesfull programs are the 767 and the "old "777 , but both are near the end of the production cycle .
The 787 fiasco dragged the 747-8 program down with it (no engineering resources, parallel certification of two aircraft types, etc.)
The 777successor, the 777-9 , seems too big for the after covid-19 passenger numbers.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Since you're a stickler for correctness, I'll suggest that I think "at risk" is a better description than "realistic".


I applied the term "realistic" to the 191 orders that Boeing still considers firm (per their statement to LNA). Boeing must consider the 118 they moved to ASC 606 sufficiently "unrealistic" or "at risk" to not include them in their firm backlog summary.

I think we're saying the same thing. :?

I agree our take are quite similar, yet I've seen a few different ways the situation is being described.

A source on Twitter used the verbiage 'no longer firm' which seems more open ended than 'unrealistic' which seems to convey a finality to it. I guess it's glass half full vs glass half empty time.

https://www.fasb.org/cs/ContentServer?c ... 2FNewsPage says:

The core principle of the new standard is for companies to recognize revenue to depict the transfer of goods or services to customers in amounts that reflect the consideration (that is, payment) to which The core principle of the new standard is for companies to recognize revenue to depict the transfer of goods or services to customers in amounts that reflect the consideration (that is, payment) to which the company expects to be entitled in exchange for those goods or services. in exchange for those goods or services.

So Boeing expects 1/3rd of its 77X orders to not be filled, at least not under the current contracts. Seems a bit more close ended than 'no longer firm'.

So, I am converging on the less open ended take, although "unrealistic" still sounds a bit harsher than "no longer expects" and this is the language used by the accounting board as well.
 
UA748i
Posts: 151
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Re: Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:01 pm

This really hurts me to say, but unfortunately, there is an increasing likelihood we may not even see the 777-8.

Boeing seemed to be a few years too late on the 777X, just like they were too late the 747-8i.

With the advent of NEOs and now the A220, the MAX is losing ground. 747 production is wrapping up, 767 orders wont last forever, 777 pretty much done, the 787 still isn't cash positive, and now this, with the 777X, their new flagship product that hasnt even entered service.

Boeing Defense is in the same realm. Sure, they just launched the F-15EX and F/A-18E/F Block III, Defiant progress is going well, and even are fiddling with a Gen-6 fighter, but 40+ year old fighters and aircraft that will not win their respective competitions is not a recipe for long term success.

The next decade will be a very unexciting period for Boeing, particularly for BCA. An uncompetitive lineup (save the 787) and too broke to launch anything new.

Just my 2c.

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