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Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:17 pm

Welcome to the Australian Aviation Thread - February 2021. Please continue to add your comments below

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zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:26 pm

can imagine that it’s very frustrating for all airlines. However, with WA closing off again, NZ has opened up again so I’d imagine that sort of mitigates one over the other in terms of aircraft usage. Hopefully greater Perth will open up again after the 5 day lockout and we’ll be back to CoVid “normal”.

Overall I believe that, for the most part, Australia has managed CoVid quite well compared to many other countries. Assuming that things remain relatively stable, by mid year we should have a travel bubble with NZ and many other smaller South Pacific nations. *crossing fingers*

But in terms of airlines managing these changes, whilst annoying, they should be well versed or experienced in dealing with this. How many times have we seen flights affected by other things such as volcanoes in Indonesia, tropical cyclones, tsunami, etc


New Zealand re-opening is only one way still, so not an huge amount of passenger movement. VA isn’t operating on the Tasman while it’s one way, they are waiting for it to be two way to be worth there while. QF is doing an 2x weekly a330 service, then JQ is doing an 3-4x weekly A320 service. Both kept operating during the 6 day lockout. JQ flights really are more about getting fresh a320s to New Zealand, along with airline supplies to keep there New Zealand domestic operating.

Short-term parking aircraft constantly isn’t cheap, it takes allot of man hours to prepare an aircraft for short term storage. A cyclone or volcano general isn’t happening every second week, on the other hands an domestic boarded closes every second week.

QLD is going to want atleast 14 days before they re-open to WA.
 
777luver
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:37 pm

zkncj wrote:
can imagine that it’s very frustrating for all airlines. However, with WA closing off again, NZ has opened up again so I’d imagine that sort of mitigates one over the other in terms of aircraft usage. Hopefully greater Perth will open up again after the 5 day lockout and we’ll be back to CoVid “normal”.

Overall I believe that, for the most part, Australia has managed CoVid quite well compared to many other countries. Assuming that things remain relatively stable, by mid year we should have a travel bubble with NZ and many other smaller South Pacific nations. *crossing fingers*

But in terms of airlines managing these changes, whilst annoying, they should be well versed or experienced in dealing with this. How many times have we seen flights affected by other things such as volcanoes in Indonesia, tropical cyclones, tsunami, etc


New Zealand re-opening is only one way still, so not an huge amount of passenger movement. VA isn’t operating on the Tasman while it’s one way, they are waiting for it to be two way to be worth there while. QF is doing an 2x weekly a330 service, then JQ is doing an 3-4x weekly A320 service. Both kept operating during the 6 day lockout. JQ flights really are more about getting fresh a320s to New Zealand, along with airline supplies to keep there New Zealand domestic operating.

Short-term parking aircraft constantly isn’t cheap, it takes allot of man hours to prepare an aircraft for short term storage. A cyclone or volcano general isn’t happening every second week, on the other hands an domestic boarded closes every second week.

QLD is going to want atleast 14 days before they re-open to WA.


To add to that, no one was prepared for a pandemic. To compare a volcano or hurricane to a pandemic is laughable. "Should be well versed" makes it seem like it's a given but pretty harsh and completely ignorant.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:02 pm

777luver wrote:
zkncj wrote:
can imagine that it’s very frustrating for all airlines. However, with WA closing off again, NZ has opened up again so I’d imagine that sort of mitigates one over the other in terms of aircraft usage. Hopefully greater Perth will open up again after the 5 day lockout and we’ll be back to CoVid “normal”.

Overall I believe that, for the most part, Australia has managed CoVid quite well compared to many other countries. Assuming that things remain relatively stable, by mid year we should have a travel bubble with NZ and many other smaller South Pacific nations. *crossing fingers*

But in terms of airlines managing these changes, whilst annoying, they should be well versed or experienced in dealing with this. How many times have we seen flights affected by other things such as volcanoes in Indonesia, tropical cyclones, tsunami, etc


New Zealand re-opening is only one way still, so not an huge amount of passenger movement. VA isn’t operating on the Tasman while it’s one way, they are waiting for it to be two way to be worth there while. QF is doing an 2x weekly a330 service, then JQ is doing an 3-4x weekly A320 service. Both kept operating during the 6 day lockout. JQ flights really are more about getting fresh a320s to New Zealand, along with airline supplies to keep there New Zealand domestic operating.

Short-term parking aircraft constantly isn’t cheap, it takes allot of man hours to prepare an aircraft for short term storage. A cyclone or volcano general isn’t happening every second week, on the other hands an domestic boarded closes every second week.

QLD is going to want atleast 14 days before they re-open to WA.


To add to that, no one was prepared for a pandemic. To compare a volcano or hurricane to a pandemic is laughable. "Should be well versed" makes it seem like it's a given but pretty harsh and completely ignorant.


We are one year into the pandemic, so they absolutely do know what’s going on. Of course events were unfolding rapidly last March, but by this point the airlines are well aware that border restrictions can change on a whim. They are taking a calculated risk by ramping up capacity immediately after border restrictions ease. Presumably it is more profitable for them to do so than keep supply at lower levels so it doesn’t fluctuate wildly. If the airlines want to accept that risk and make money then good for them. However, every schedule expansion is a gamble, and I won’t be crying if an ASX listed company bets large and looses.
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zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:56 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
777luver wrote:
zkncj wrote:

New Zealand re-opening is only one way still, so not an huge amount of passenger movement. VA isn’t operating on the Tasman while it’s one way, they are waiting for it to be two way to be worth there while. QF is doing an 2x weekly a330 service, then JQ is doing an 3-4x weekly A320 service. Both kept operating during the 6 day lockout. JQ flights really are more about getting fresh a320s to New Zealand, along with airline supplies to keep there New Zealand domestic operating.

Short-term parking aircraft constantly isn’t cheap, it takes allot of man hours to prepare an aircraft for short term storage. A cyclone or volcano general isn’t happening every second week, on the other hands an domestic boarded closes every second week.

QLD is going to want atleast 14 days before they re-open to WA.


To add to that, no one was prepared for a pandemic. To compare a volcano or hurricane to a pandemic is laughable. "Should be well versed" makes it seem like it's a given but pretty harsh and completely ignorant.


We are one year into the pandemic, so they absolutely do know what’s going on. Of course events were unfolding rapidly last March, but by this point the airlines are well aware that border restrictions can change on a whim. They are taking a calculated risk by ramping up capacity immediately after border restrictions ease. Presumably it is more profitable for them to do so than keep supply at lower levels so it doesn’t fluctuate wildly. If the airlines want to accept that risk and make money then good for them. However, every schedule expansion is a gamble, and I won’t be crying if an ASX listed company bets large and looses.


It’s no way to keep running an business, let alone look after the staff you employ.

Domestic travel should be allow to freely happen, as long as that state isn’t currently having an major out break. Closing domestic boarders over an single case is an bit over the top, it should an warning and additional boarder checks put in place eg arrival health checks etc.

Constant domestic boarder changes, doesn’t give the general public very much confidence in travelling intra state. Airlines, Hotels, Other providers all need intra state travel to help them last 2021.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:27 am

777luver wrote:
zkncj wrote:
can imagine that it’s very frustrating for all airlines. However, with WA closing off again, NZ has opened up again so I’d imagine that sort of mitigates one over the other in terms of aircraft usage. Hopefully greater Perth will open up again after the 5 day lockout and we’ll be back to CoVid “normal”.

Overall I believe that, for the most part, Australia has managed CoVid quite well compared to many other countries. Assuming that things remain relatively stable, by mid year we should have a travel bubble with NZ and many other smaller South Pacific nations. *crossing fingers*

But in terms of airlines managing these changes, whilst annoying, they should be well versed or experienced in dealing with this. How many times have we seen flights affected by other things such as volcanoes in Indonesia, tropical cyclones, tsunami, etc


New Zealand re-opening is only one way still, so not an huge amount of passenger movement. VA isn’t operating on the Tasman while it’s one way, they are waiting for it to be two way to be worth there while. QF is doing an 2x weekly a330 service, then JQ is doing an 3-4x weekly A320 service. Both kept operating during the 6 day lockout. JQ flights really are more about getting fresh a320s to New Zealand, along with airline supplies to keep there New Zealand domestic operating.

Short-term parking aircraft constantly isn’t cheap, it takes allot of man hours to prepare an aircraft for short term storage. A cyclone or volcano general isn’t happening every second week, on the other hands an domestic boarded closes every second week.

QLD is going to want atleast 14 days before they re-open to WA.


To add to that, no one was prepared for a pandemic. To compare a volcano or hurricane to a pandemic is laughable. "Should be well versed" makes it seem like it's a given but pretty harsh and completely ignorant.


I wasn’t trying to be glib with my remarks. And I think that the statement “no one was prepared for a pandemic” is a bit ill considered seeing we’ve had them before; SARS being the relevant example.

The point I was making about a volcanic eruption and cyclones was that an airline will have contingency planning in place for major disruptions. It wasn’t that long ago when a volcano in Indonesia was playing havoc with flight schedules at DPS. Depending on wind currents affecting the ash clouds, some flights that had departed Australia, had to return back to their departing airports. That is no different to a state closing a border for quarantine reasons.

If an airline wasn’t “well versed” in contingency planning and risk mitigation then I would be very concerned. I think there’s enough commentary within these forums about Boeing’s regard to risk management with the 737MAX to demonstrably prove it is not ignorant.
Cheers,
C1973


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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:25 am

Qantas remains committed to their West Coast mini hub plans post covid19 with a direct PER-JNB service still on the cards to operate along side SYD-JNB.

Qantas keen for direct Perth-Johannesburg flights

Jo'burg is not only back on the map, it could see Qantas flights from both Sydney and Perth.

Qantas remains keen to launch direct flights between Perth and Johannesburg, in addition to the established Sydney-Jo'burg route, once international travel resumes.
However, a sticking point remains the airline's ongoing dispute with Perth Airport – particularly with regard to Qantas' desire to run its Perth flights from its integrated Terminal 3-Terminal 4 hub, rather than the T1 international terminal used by other airlines.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... rg4OONMz_E


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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:44 am

EK413 wrote:
Qantas remains committed to their West Coast mini hub plans post covid19 with a direct PER-JNB service still on the cards to operate along side SYD-JNB.

Qantas keen for direct Perth-Johannesburg flights

Jo'burg is not only back on the map, it could see Qantas flights from both Sydney and Perth.

Qantas remains keen to launch direct flights between Perth and Johannesburg, in addition to the established Sydney-Jo'burg route, once international travel resumes.
However, a sticking point remains the airline's ongoing dispute with Perth Airport – particularly with regard to Qantas' desire to run its Perth flights from its integrated Terminal 3-Terminal 4 hub, rather than the T1 international terminal used by other airlines.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... rg4OONMz_E


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Wasn’t there discussion at one point about a 3-4 weekly service between PER and CPT as well?
Cheers,
C1973


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EK413
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Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:28 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Qantas remains committed to their West Coast mini hub plans post covid19 with a direct PER-JNB service still on the cards to operate along side SYD-JNB.

Qantas keen for direct Perth-Johannesburg flights

Jo'burg is not only back on the map, it could see Qantas flights from both Sydney and Perth.

Qantas remains keen to launch direct flights between Perth and Johannesburg, in addition to the established Sydney-Jo'burg route, once international travel resumes.
However, a sticking point remains the airline's ongoing dispute with Perth Airport – particularly with regard to Qantas' desire to run its Perth flights from its integrated Terminal 3-Terminal 4 hub, rather than the T1 international terminal used by other airlines.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... rg4OONMz_E


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Wasn’t there discussion at one point about a 3-4 weekly service between PER and CPT as well?

I don’t recall CPT service, however I do recall QF published PER-JNB-PER services at some point only to promptly have it removed from their schedule.


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myki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:27 am

EK413 wrote:
Qantas remains committed to their West Coast mini hub plans post covid19 with a direct PER-JNB service still on the cards to operate along side SYD-JNB.

Qantas keen for direct Perth-Johannesburg flights

Jo'burg is not only back on the map, it could see Qantas flights from both Sydney and Perth.

Qantas remains keen to launch direct flights between Perth and Johannesburg, in addition to the established Sydney-Jo'burg route, once international travel resumes.
However, a sticking point remains the airline's ongoing dispute with Perth Airport – particularly with regard to Qantas' desire to run its Perth flights from its integrated Terminal 3-Terminal 4 hub, rather than the T1 international terminal used by other airlines.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... rg4OONMz_E


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If I was running the show at Perth Airport, I'd be realising the ball isn't in my court at the moment. If the option is having QF fly from whichever terminal they want, or watching QF fly overhead non-stop from SYD to JNB, then it's an easy decision to make when your airport is currently sitting half empty :bouncy:
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:47 pm

Quick question, how is the managed quarantine of pilots in Sydney going? Has it been working? I havent seen any carriers pull back their service as a result of this.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:23 am

I heard a rumour that VS operated a cargo flight from HKG-SYD over the weekend. Does anyone have any info or pics of this bird in SYD?
 
F100Flyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:59 am

EK413 wrote:
Qantas remains committed to their West Coast mini hub plans post covid19 with a direct PER-JNB service still on the cards to operate along side SYD-JNB.

Qantas keen for direct Perth-Johannesburg flights

Jo'burg is not only back on the map, it could see Qantas flights from both Sydney and Perth.

Qantas remains keen to launch direct flights between Perth and Johannesburg, in addition to the established Sydney-Jo'burg route, once international travel resumes.
However, a sticking point remains the airline's ongoing dispute with Perth Airport – particularly with regard to Qantas' desire to run its Perth flights from its integrated Terminal 3-Terminal 4 hub, rather than the T1 international terminal used by other airlines.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... rg4OONMz_E


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Seeing as SAA return is looking less and less likely, I suspect the temptation for QF operating a service to JNB, even from T1, is higher. Surely too good of an opportunity to miss. Rumour mill was that PER-JNB was one of, if not the only profitable route for SAA.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:13 am

Is an A332 enough plane for the route? I’m not sure the QF -300s will have the range but -200s seem like low capacity for what has historically being a busy pair. I guess having more demand than capacity is much more preferable from the airline perspective than the reverse, and why we are seeing the trend of airframe downsizing only accelerated by the pandemic.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:11 am

i think the -200 will have better take off performance out of JNB, I think QF still has 180mins EDTO on the A330s? Which would add about at least an hour compared to the direct routing so the -300 may be pushing it
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:13 am

a320fan wrote:
Is an A332 enough plane for the route? I’m not sure the QF -300s will have the range but -200s seem like low capacity for what has historically being a busy pair. I guess having more demand than capacity is much more preferable from the airline perspective than the reverse, and why we are seeing the trend of airframe downsizing only accelerated by the pandemic.

The A332 can comfortably do PER-JNB and would undoubtedly be what QF uses when the route is introduced. From a capacity point of view the A332 has more seats that the 787. The 787 would only be needed if QF felt there was overwhelming demand for W Class.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:28 am

a320fan wrote:
Is an A332 enough plane for the route? I’m not sure the QF -300s will have the range but -200s seem like low capacity for what has historically being a busy pair. I guess having more demand than capacity is much more preferable from the airline perspective than the reverse, and why we are seeing the trend of airframe downsizing only accelerated by the pandemic.


Lower capacity would suit QF as it could keep yields high.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:18 am

In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:27 am

ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.


Far be it for me to accuse of day dreaming during lockdown but where would QF have gotten the aircraft for that?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:38 am

ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.

Ben I do think you are a tad over enthustic. I can see JNB, I can even see LHR contuining if the reported stats that say over half pax as bound for PER turn out to be correct & not some artific of the data colloction method. I can also SIN & maybe, just maybe India. I think FRA & CDG from both SYD & MEL are a bit otpomatisc at this point in time.

Gemuser
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:40 am

Obzerva wrote:
ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.


Far be it for me to accuse of day dreaming during lockdown but where would QF have gotten the aircraft for that?

From Boeing & Airbus :-) and delaying retirements until they are delivered. [Rember NO covid]

Gemuser
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:41 am

tullamarine wrote:
The A332 can comfortably do PER-JNB and would undoubtedly be what QF uses when the route is introduced. From a capacity point of view the A332 has more seats that the 787. The 787 would only be needed if QF felt there was overwhelming demand for W Class.


Back when QF first wanted to do PER-JNB is was seasonal and I'm not even sure if it was daily, and also it was alongside the B747 SYD-JNB. I suspect COVID-19 will have changed everything but QF would be quick to pounce on PER-JNB with the A330 if SAA doesn't come back, which is looking more and more likely, while the 787 would take over SYD-JNB, but neither of those have to be daily to start with, it would all depend on demand. And who knows, maybe JNB could restart with the 787 doing SYD-PER-JNB and then the PER-JNB A330 is added as demand to South Africa from both coasts rebuilds?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:44 am

ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.


Qantas' plan was certainly to build up PER as an 'Aussie international hub' beginning with PER-LHR and then adding CDG and FRA, but Alan Joyce repeatedly said Qantas would only add CDG and FRA once all the issues with PER were settled. PER-SIN was already operating, but I don't think India would make much sense ex-PER compared to direct flights from SYD or MEL.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:49 am

India on QF probably doesn't make as much sense before COVID considering their 3 failed attempts prior to their proposed 4th attempt.

I'm more surprised they didn't attempt to put JQ's 788s (to match the high demand - low yielding nature of the Oz-India market) on any Oz-India route inbetween any of QF's failed attempts.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:51 am

ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.


Looking at ABS population projections, the greater Perth area will be about 2.5M by the end of the decade. Maybe by then it will be a western hub.
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B762, B763, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:56 am

Obzerva wrote:
ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.


Far be it for me to accuse of day dreaming during lockdown but where would QF have gotten the aircraft for that?


ALDI Special Buys :rotfl: Well, they seem to sell almost everything.

Once CoVid has been controlled, to the point where international travel is possible, airlines seeing growth as well as positive revenue will probably be grabbing the unused frames parked today.
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B762, B763, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
AN, EK, MI, QF, SB.
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:30 am

I've been tracking the Coulson Aviation 737 fire bomber heading over to WA from NSW. It appears to be heading for Busselton, not Perth, anyone know why?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:36 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
I've been tracking the Coulson Aviation 737 fire bomber heading over to WA from NSW. It appears to be heading for Busselton, not Perth, anyone know why?


The Coulson C130 is also operating out of Busselton. Can’t speak to what drove this decision, but it appears to be their “base” in the West.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:56 am

Gemuser wrote:
ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.

Ben I do think you are a tad over enthustic. I can see JNB, I can even see LHR contuining if the reported stats that say over half pax as bound for PER turn out to be correct & not some artific of the data colloction method. I can also SIN & maybe, just maybe India. I think FRA & CDG from both SYD & MEL are a bit otpomatisc at this point in time.

Gemuser


I may have slightly rose-coloured glasses on in regards to 2022 - but all those destinations I mentioned have been flagged by AJ as future candidates for PER, excluding India. LHR is here to stay - I don't understand how you could still be contesting that? The figures speak for themselves and the route is/was clearly profitable.

If only I could find the threads back in the day of people saying PER-LHR would never get off the ground!

Anyways, it's fun to be enthusiastic when the industry is in such a miserable state.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:03 am

ben175 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.

Ben I do think you are a tad over enthustic. I can see JNB, I can even see LHR contuining if the reported stats that say over half pax as bound for PER turn out to be correct & not some artific of the data colloction method. I can also SIN & maybe, just maybe India. I think FRA & CDG from both SYD & MEL are a bit otpomatisc at this point in time.

Gemuser


I may have slightly rose-coloured glasses on in regards to 2022 - but all those destinations I mentioned have been flagged by AJ as future candidates for PER, excluding India. LHR is here to stay - I don't understand how you could still be contesting that? The figures speak for themselves and the route is/was clearly profitable.

If only I could find the threads back in the day of people saying PER-LHR would never get off the ground!

Anyways, it's fun to be enthusiastic when the industry is in such a miserable state.


Here is the initial thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1349721&p=19229325#p19229325

When ticket sales started

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1361397

Inaugural flight thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1389307&p=20257543#p20257543
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Gemuser
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:24 am

ben175 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
ben175 wrote:
In a world without COVID, I think we could’ve seen a fantastic Western QF hub linking PER with SIN, LHR, CDG, FRA, JNB and BOM/DEL by 2022.

I may have slightly rose-coloured glasses on in regards to 2022 - but all those destinations I mentioned have been flagged by AJ as future candidates for PER, excluding India. LHR is here to stay - I don't understand how you could still be contesting that? The figures speak for themselves and the route is/was clearly profitable.

If only I could find the threads back in the day of people saying PER-LHR would never get off the ground!

Anyways, it's fun to be enthusiastic when the industry is in such a miserable state.

I am still somewhat skeptical about PER-LHR AFTER SYD/MEL - LHR non stops are established because we don't really know what effect that will have on PER - LHR traffic. The latest number I saw [on this site] had it about 50% PER O&D, 25% MEL, 10 -15 % SYD/BNE. If all of that 35% - 40% traffic is lost to the east coast non stops, then PER-LHR does become somewhat problematic unless something replaces it. That's why I think you are using rose coloured glasses! I maybe be wareing sun glasses but it is a question that cannot be answered until after the east coast non stop are established.
I know the other routes were flagged by AJ but as possiabilities, that doesn't mean they will definately happen.

Gemuser
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:33 am

Gemuser wrote:
I am still somewhat skeptical about PER-LHR AFTER SYD/MEL - LHR non stops are established because we don't really know what effect that will have on PER - LHR traffic. The latest number I saw [on this site] had it about 50% PER O&D, 25% MEL, 10 -15 % SYD/BNE. If all of that 35% - 40% traffic is lost to the east coast non stops, then PER-LHR does become somewhat problematic unless something replaces it. That's why I think you are using rose coloured glasses! I maybe be wareing sun glasses but it is a question that cannot be answered until after the east coast non stop are established.
I know the other routes were flagged by AJ but as possiabilities, that doesn't mean they will definately happen.

Gemuser


I thought the number was somewhat higher than 50%, more around the 60%? In any case, I can see the flight continuing, perhaps reduced to a 5pw if it is too much. The BHP and Rio traffic between LHR and PER (and associated mining traffic) is high yield and im sure QF have cultivated this and the execs have become used to it in the short period of time it was operating.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:00 am

Gemuser wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I may have slightly rose-coloured glasses on in regards to 2022 - but all those destinations I mentioned have been flagged by AJ as future candidates for PER, excluding India. LHR is here to stay - I don't understand how you could still be contesting that? The figures speak for themselves and the route is/was clearly profitable.

If only I could find the threads back in the day of people saying PER-LHR would never get off the ground!

Anyways, it's fun to be enthusiastic when the industry is in such a miserable state.

I am still somewhat skeptical about PER-LHR AFTER SYD/MEL - LHR non stops are established because we don't really know what effect that will have on PER - LHR traffic. The latest number I saw [on this site] had it about 50% PER O&D, 25% MEL, 10 -15 % SYD/BNE. If all of that 35% - 40% traffic is lost to the east coast non stops, then PER-LHR does become somewhat problematic unless something replaces it. That's why I think you are using rose coloured glasses! I maybe be wareing sun glasses but it is a question that cannot be answered until after the east coast non stop are established.
I know the other routes were flagged by AJ but as possiabilities, that doesn't mean they will definately happen.

Gemuser


O&D to PER has been sitting in the 60% bracket, not 50%. Load factors sitting at above 90% with eye-opening prices across all 3 classes and barely any reward availability pre-covid leads me to believe it’s here to stay. I understand where you’re coming from but quoted from AJs mouth the route has exceeded all expectations.

Considering COVID has put a halt to project sunrise, we are realistically still a good 3-5 years away from direct SYD/MEL-LHR anyway.
 
ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:23 am

ben175 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
ben175 wrote:

I am still somewhat skeptical about PER-LHR AFTER SYD/MEL - LHR non stops are established because we don't really know what effect that will have on PER - LHR traffic. The latest number I saw [on this site] had it about 50% PER O&D, 25% MEL, 10 -15 % SYD/BNE. If all of that 35% - 40% traffic is lost to the east coast non stops, then PER-LHR does become somewhat problematic unless something replaces it. That's why I think you are using rose coloured glasses! I maybe be wareing sun glasses but it is a question that cannot be answered until after the east coast non stop are established.
I know the other routes were flagged by AJ but as possiabilities, that doesn't mean they will definately happen.

Gemuser


O&D to PER has been sitting in the 60% bracket, not 50%. Load factors sitting at above 90% with eye-opening prices across all 3 classes and barely any reward availability pre-covid leads me to believe it’s here to stay. I understand where you’re coming from but quoted from AJs mouth the route has exceeded all expectations.

Considering COVID has put a halt to project sunrise, we are realistically still a good 3-5 years away from direct SYD/MEL-LHR anyway.


2024 for restarting Project Sunrise, according to this: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... a350-order
 
Aware
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:08 am

Watching that interview with AJ, it is clear from how animated AJ spoke on the point that it is the JVs that excite him the most in terms of their international business. That will likely be the primary focus over the next 3 years, not Project Sunrise.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:29 am

ArtV wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I am still somewhat skeptical about PER-LHR AFTER SYD/MEL - LHR non stops are established because we don't really know what effect that will have on PER - LHR traffic. The latest number I saw [on this site] had it about 50% PER O&D, 25% MEL, 10 -15 % SYD/BNE. If all of that 35% - 40% traffic is lost to the east coast non stops, then PER-LHR does become somewhat problematic unless something replaces it. That's why I think you are using rose coloured glasses! I maybe be wareing sun glasses but it is a question that cannot be answered until after the east coast non stop are established.
I know the other routes were flagged by AJ but as possiabilities, that doesn't mean they will definately happen.

Gemuser


O&D to PER has been sitting in the 60% bracket, not 50%. Load factors sitting at above 90% with eye-opening prices across all 3 classes and barely any reward availability pre-covid leads me to believe it’s here to stay. I understand where you’re coming from but quoted from AJs mouth the route has exceeded all expectations.

Considering COVID has put a halt to project sunrise, we are realistically still a good 3-5 years away from direct SYD/MEL-LHR anyway.


2024 for restarting Project Sunrise, according to this: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... a350-order

I get 2024, but restart?? Apart from the 3 "scientific" flights, it has never started
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:09 am

qf2220 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I am still somewhat skeptical about PER-LHR AFTER SYD/MEL - LHR non stops are established because we don't really know what effect that will have on PER - LHR traffic. The latest number I saw [on this site] had it about 50% PER O&D, 25% MEL, 10 -15 % SYD/BNE. If all of that 35% - 40% traffic is lost to the east coast non stops, then PER-LHR does become somewhat problematic unless something replaces it. That's why I think you are using rose coloured glasses! I maybe be wareing sun glasses but it is a question that cannot be answered until after the east coast non stop are established.
I know the other routes were flagged by AJ but as possiabilities, that doesn't mean they will definately happen.

Gemuser


I thought the number was somewhat higher than 50%, more around the 60%? In any case, I can see the flight continuing, perhaps reduced to a 5pw if it is too much. The BHP and Rio traffic between LHR and PER (and associated mining traffic) is high yield and im sure QF have cultivated this and the execs have become used to it in the short period of time it was operating.


Exactly, I think that BHP and Rio Tinto alone if enough to ensure that PER-LHR is here to stay. Premium demand will always be there (pandemic notwithstanding)

We know that the average load factor is around 95%, and - as observed - fares were very high on the route pre-Covid. That means you are still at ~55% load factor at high fares with zero East Coast feed. Reduce fares slightly and filling the other 40% (~100 seats) won’t be hard at all. It is Qantas’ most profitable route, so even with a marginal hit to yield I can’t see how it suddenly becomes loss making.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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EK413
Posts: 5653
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:30 am

tullamarine wrote:
ArtV wrote:
ben175 wrote:

O&D to PER has been sitting in the 60% bracket, not 50%. Load factors sitting at above 90% with eye-opening prices across all 3 classes and barely any reward availability pre-covid leads me to believe it’s here to stay. I understand where you’re coming from but quoted from AJs mouth the route has exceeded all expectations.

Considering COVID has put a halt to project sunrise, we are realistically still a good 3-5 years away from direct SYD/MEL-LHR anyway.


2024 for restarting Project Sunrise, according to this: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... a350-order

I get 2024, but restart?? Apart from the 3 "scientific" flights, it has never started

It’s well worth noting AJ has openly commented surrounding post Covid the direct point to point flights justified. An example would be QF by-passing SIN on their SYD-SIN-LHR route opting to fly via DRW.

The recent LHR repat flights have operated SYD-PER-LHR.

EK413


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Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
A350OZ
Posts: 200
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:52 am

EK413 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
ArtV wrote:

2024 for restarting Project Sunrise, according to this: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... a350-order

I get 2024, but restart?? Apart from the 3 "scientific" flights, it has never started

It’s well worth noting AJ has openly commented surrounding post Covid the direct point to point flights justified. An example would be QF by-passing SIN on their SYD-SIN-LHR route opting to fly via DRW.

The recent LHR repat flights have operated SYD-PER-LHR.

EK413


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I think DRW would only make sense over PER if we’re talking A380 flights resuming to LHR. Given DRW-LHR is about the same distance as SYD-DFW, this may be a consideration. But if they stick with the 789 then I’d say they’d run via PER even double-daily if demand allows.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2765
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:54 am

EK413 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
ArtV wrote:

2024 for restarting Project Sunrise, according to this: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... a350-order

I get 2024, but restart?? Apart from the 3 "scientific" flights, it has never started

It’s well worth noting AJ has openly commented surrounding post Covid the direct point to point flights justified. An example would be QF by-passing SIN on their SYD-SIN-LHR route opting to fly via DRW.

The recent LHR repat flights have operated SYD-PER-LHR.

EK413


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

QF has recently invested in the First Lounge in SIN. QF also operated SIN as a mini-hub with flights from MEL, BNE and PER all arriving around the same time to connect with the A380s operating QF1/2 as well as it being the hub for 3K for flights around SE Asia. If the A380 comes back, I can't see them abandoning it for DRW.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Aviator34ID
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:45 am

Is there anyone in Busselton who has taken any photos of the Coulson C130 and B733 fire bombers in the last couple of days?
 
Deano969
Posts: 56
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:10 am

ben175 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
ben175 wrote:

I am still somewhat skeptical about PER-LHR AFTER SYD/MEL - LHR non stops are established because we don't really know what effect that will have on PER - LHR traffic. The latest number I saw [on this site] had it about 50% PER O&D, 25% MEL, 10 -15 % SYD/BNE. If all of that 35% - 40% traffic is lost to the east coast non stops, then PER-LHR does become somewhat problematic unless something replaces it. That's why I think you are using rose coloured glasses! I maybe be wareing sun glasses but it is a question that cannot be answered until after the east coast non stop are established.
I know the other routes were flagged by AJ but as possiabilities, that doesn't mean they will definately happen.

Gemuser


O&D to PER has been sitting in the 60% bracket, not 50%. Load factors sitting at above 90% with eye-opening prices across all 3 classes and barely any reward availability pre-covid leads me to believe it’s here to stay. I understand where you’re coming from but quoted from AJs mouth the route has exceeded all expectations.

Considering COVID has put a halt to project sunrise, we are realistically still a good 3-5 years away from direct SYD/MEL-LHR anyway.


Would this include
Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart?
One would think that Perth would still be a better one stop option over the east...
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:12 am

tullamarine wrote:
EK413 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I get 2024, but restart?? Apart from the 3 "scientific" flights, it has never started

It’s well worth noting AJ has openly commented surrounding post Covid the direct point to point flights justified. An example would be QF by-passing SIN on their SYD-SIN-LHR route opting to fly via DRW.

The recent LHR repat flights have operated SYD-PER-LHR.

EK413


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

QF has recently invested in the First Lounge in SIN. QF also operated SIN as a mini-hub with flights from MEL, BNE and PER all arriving around the same time to connect with the A380s operating QF1/2 as well as it being the hub for 3K for flights around SE Asia. If the A380 comes back, I can't see them abandoning it for DRW.

Perhaps I should elaborate the point I was making is the fact QF opted to go via an Australian port direct to LHR vs Asian port. The DRW stop over was just an example of QF direct to Europe / UK services.

I personally wouldn’t be surprised PER becomes QF’s West Coast hub with direct services to UK/Europe/Africa. All comes down to the market recovery and demand.


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Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
Gemuser
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:15 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I am still somewhat skeptical about PER-LHR AFTER SYD/MEL - LHR non stops are established because we don't really know what effect that will have on PER - LHR traffic. The latest number I saw [on this site] had it about 50% PER O&D, 25% MEL, 10 -15 % SYD/BNE. If all of that 35% - 40% traffic is lost to the east coast non stops, then PER-LHR does become somewhat problematic unless something replaces it. That's why I think you are using rose coloured glasses! I maybe be wareing sun glasses but it is a question that cannot be answered until after the east coast non stop are established.
I know the other routes were flagged by AJ but as possiabilities, that doesn't mean they will definately happen.

Gemuser


I thought the number was somewhat higher than 50%, more around the 60%? In any case, I can see the flight continuing, perhaps reduced to a 5pw if it is too much. The BHP and Rio traffic between LHR and PER (and associated mining traffic) is high yield and im sure QF have cultivated this and the execs have become used to it in the short period of time it was operating.


Exactly, I think that BHP and Rio Tinto alone if enough to ensure that PER-LHR is here to stay. Premium demand will always be there (pandemic notwithstanding)

We know that the average load factor is around 95%, and - as observed - fares were very high on the route pre-Covid. That means you are still at ~55% load factor at high fares with zero East Coast feed. Reduce fares slightly and filling the other 40% (~100 seats) won’t be hard at all. It is Qantas’ most profitable route, so even with a marginal hit to yield I can’t see how it suddenly becomes loss making.

Maybe you & others are right and maybe you & others are wrong. At this time we just don't know, so I'll just leave my comments at that.

Gemuser
 
CBRboy
Posts: 187
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:17 pm

In relation to the debate about the proportion of Perth O&D traffic on QF 9 and 10, Qantas commissioned Deloitte Access Economics to report on the first year's operation (to 31 March 2019). The report provides a detailed breakdown of the origin of passengers on QF9 and destination of passengers on QF10. It shows that 50.1% of the outbound passengers started their journey in Perth, while 51.3% of those inbound stayed in Perth. There are also detailed figures for the O&D of the rest of the pax.

More broadly I guess it's fun to speculate, but I'm amused at anyone who argues passionately about what will happen with future international services. Qantas has been hugely optimistic selling international services from 1 July this year. Given that currently available vaccines merely reduce the severity of COVID-19 infections and don't prevent the vaccinated person from catching, carrying and spreading the virus, regular international travel other than to and from areas where the virus has been eliminated (eg New Zealand) is a fair way off. With a large proportion of the Australian, European, Singapore, North-East Asian and North American population vaccinated by late this year, we'll see what happens then. At the moment the available facts suggest we can't know whether it will be safe for borders to be fully opened or not: for example there isn't data on whether all the available vaccines work against the recent UK and South African mutations. South Africa, South America and South-East Asia look likely to be some way behind in controlling the pandemic.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:28 pm

CBRboy: Thank you for some real numbers. An interesting read.

Gemuser
 
melpax
Posts: 2134
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:28 pm

Another hotel quarantine breach, this time in MEL. A quarantine staffer at the Grand Hyatt has tested positive while it was being used to house arriving players & officials for the Aus Open. 500 players, and associated people who were staying there have been told to get tested & quarantine until they get a negative result, and mask wearing has been tightened back to having to mask up in all indoor situations. Premier has gone on TV at 10.30PM to announce this, and then tells people not to panic......

https://www.theage.com.au/national/live ... 56ytd.html
 
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EK413
Posts: 5653
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:09 pm

CBRboy wrote:
In relation to the debate about the proportion of Perth O&D traffic on QF 9 and 10, Qantas commissioned Deloitte Access Economics to report on the first year's operation (to 31 March 2019). The report provides a detailed breakdown of the origin of passengers on QF9 and destination of passengers on QF10. It shows that 50.1% of the outbound passengers started their journey in Perth, while 51.3% of those inbound stayed in Perth. There are also detailed figures for the O&D of the rest of the pax.

More broadly I guess it's fun to speculate, but I'm amused at anyone who argues passionately about what will happen with future international services. Qantas has been hugely optimistic selling international services from 1 July this year. Given that currently available vaccines merely reduce the severity of COVID-19 infections and don't prevent the vaccinated person from catching, carrying and spreading the virus, regular international travel other than to and from areas where the virus has been eliminated (eg New Zealand) is a fair way off. With a large proportion of the Australian, European, Singapore, North-East Asian and North American population vaccinated by late this year, we'll see what happens then. At the moment the available facts suggest we can't know whether it will be safe for borders to be fully opened or not: for example there isn't data on whether all the available vaccines work against the recent UK and South African mutations. South Africa, South America and South-East Asia look likely to be some way behind in controlling the pandemic.

Personally I don’t foresee any international travel returning this year and possibly the earliest I’d say the first quarter of 2022 & that’s still a big if especially as mentioned how effective the vaccine is against the latest strains of the virus.


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qf2220
Posts: 2052
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:32 pm

Gemuser wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

I thought the number was somewhat higher than 50%, more around the 60%? In any case, I can see the flight continuing, perhaps reduced to a 5pw if it is too much. The BHP and Rio traffic between LHR and PER (and associated mining traffic) is high yield and im sure QF have cultivated this and the execs have become used to it in the short period of time it was operating.


Exactly, I think that BHP and Rio Tinto alone if enough to ensure that PER-LHR is here to stay. Premium demand will always be there (pandemic notwithstanding)

We know that the average load factor is around 95%, and - as observed - fares were very high on the route pre-Covid. That means you are still at ~55% load factor at high fares with zero East Coast feed. Reduce fares slightly and filling the other 40% (~100 seats) won’t be hard at all. It is Qantas’ most profitable route, so even with a marginal hit to yield I can’t see how it suddenly becomes loss making.

Maybe you & others are right and maybe you & others are wrong. At this time we just don't know, so I'll just leave my comments at that.

Gemuser


No, no, Gemuser is right, see Figure 1 on page 10 of this report - as they usually is about these things and so i had to go check it myself. These figures are as at 31 March 2019. I dont recall any other analysis after this date, though happy for someone to link it if there was.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/wp-co ... REPORT.pdf

50.1% origin PER
24.6 MEL
6.8 SYD
5.9 BNE
 
smi0006
Posts: 2609
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread- February 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:14 am

Interesting development with Alliance picking up some QF flying with E190. Wonder if they will be QF branded? Shows the 717 is a good fit capacity wise, but probably struggles on range. I suspect we won’t see QF replace the 717s but perhaps see Cobham, national jet or Alliance pick up more E190s for the contract.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... city-deal/

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