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VSMUT
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:57 am

Capricorn wrote:
I still think that Airbus would need a second smaller WB more urgently than Boeing (The Airbus version of the NMA), as IMO there is a market a little below the 788/338 that is not yet effectively served, something that Boeing understood correctly.


That's a market that can never be served economically due to legislative limitations. Airbus and Boeing are right to ignore it.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:06 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
...

No good way out for the A330neo, lowering the price will worsen the loss on each frame.


I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.

The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume.

The A330NEO needed AirAsiaX's volume and Tony took advantage of that negotiating. With AirAsiaX unable to afford deliveries and Delta differing, I am very curious as to the next two years production rate.

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Capricorn
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:04 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Capricorn wrote:
I still think that Airbus would need a second smaller WB more urgently than Boeing (The Airbus version of the NMA), as IMO there is a market a little below the 788/338 that is not yet effectively served, something that Boeing understood correctly.


That's a market that can never be served economically due to legislative limitations. Airbus and Boeing are right to ignore it.


Could you explain why (genuine question no utirior motive )? I am an aviation novice so I don'r quite understand. IMO the 767 is still without a true successor and I believe there is market for a NMA plane. Also for leisure airlines (the likes of DE) and the few long haul LCCs still holding on that might be the plane they need, as the current generation of airplanes is slightly too big. And with potential less premium heavy long haul flying as well as the increase of secondary hubs by various airlines I think that there would be more and more of a business case for such a plane.

But my thinking might be wrong, so I am interested in your answer. (Mods: if this is the wrong topic as it is slightly OT please do with this post as you please)
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:41 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:

I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.

The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume.

The A330NEO needed AirAsiaX's volume and Tony took advantage of that negotiating. With AirAsiaX unable to afford deliveries and Delta differing, I am very curious as to the next two years production rate.

Lightsaber


If I take the high ground, and trust the original intent of the thread, I think it asks the wrong question.

The question that needs to be asked is what the longer term prospects for the A330NEO are.
It is being produced on a very mature production line on the back of a very successful predecessor.
Therefore I see no great long-term harm to Airbus if a couple of years production dip below profitable - its not like there's a large deferred production cost that needs to be financed.
It won't be the first time the A320 family has propped Airbus up - very successfully too..

The A330NEO inhabits the same size "sweet spot" as the 787 by and large.
So where we could question the market for the A380, I don't think you can in the same way for the A330NEO.
It becomes then more a case of
a) how it interacts with the competitors around it.
b) How long it will be before the widebody market rebounds.

We have said on many threads that the widebody market is saturated for a long time to come - much more than the narrowbody market has been, and will be slower than the narrowbody market to rebound. I think most widebodys will be scratching a living for a good 3-4 years to come - the oversupply in the last 5 or 6 years has been huge.

I think A330NEO sales campaigns in 2023-2024 is a more significant question

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Wildlander
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:51 pm

Logically low(er) rates should hike costs. Much will depend on supplier contracts, the ability to redeploy labour and to repurpose facilities. Rolls might be expected to be content to stay onboard rather than forego PBTH income downstream and see its global market share further eroded.

Airbus ended the A300-600F line as orders were down to a handful of planes, only to see the market rebound when the supply chain had started scrapping jigs and fixtures. Looking at 767F sales since then, you might imagine that they regretted this choice. Stopping a line is a huge decision when you don't have a shoe-in replacement to offer.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:

I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.

The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume. /quote]

The tooling is already bought and needs to be paid for if it is sitting idle or used to build planes. Its cost don´t play into pricing for new sales. Staffing can be reduced accordingly.

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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:05 pm

JogiXFW wrote:

MSN 1970,1973,1976 are going to Cebu

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 may go to Condor and both A330-941 for Rwandair may go to Air Belgium..


Cebu Pacific had ordered their A339’s with 8 A type doors (4 per side), so they could get up to 460 seats installed. I have no idea what doors have been installed on these frames, also Cebu is in no real shape to be taking these at the moment I would be surprised if they pull all wide body ops as part of their recovery.

Air Belgium the rumours on the street are they would like to transition all wide body ops to the A330. As their A343’s are leased from Airbus Financial Services possibly a deal could be done here to get some white tails off the books for Airbus.

Condor is a possibility, but then there is the glut of 2nd hand 787’s
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:09 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Jetport wrote:
If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

To beat the prior price, I believe Airbus and RR would both have to take a loss, in my opinion. If they were to do this, it would be to prevent a line shutdown or pause. It would not be for an end of the line order per se.

I'm of mixed opinion. DL could do this, but does it make sense? Does it make sense for RR? For Airbus? Only if all 3 agree and a financing company does this happen.

It makes more sense to start an A338F. The MTOW increased enough that the A338F would be, in my opinion, much more attractive than the A332 based A330F and sell better. The issue is the 777-300ERSF. A business case spoiler.

Lightsaber


Could an A338F be used as the basis of an improved MRTT? As I recall the MRTT uses the original A330/A340 wing, and the places where the #1 and #4 engeines of the A340 would attach are used as attachment points for the wing mounted hose and drogue ports. It's my understanding that the A340 NEO wing removes the legacy A340 quad engine hardware.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:17 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Jetport wrote:
If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

To beat the prior price, I believe Airbus and RR would both have to take a loss, in my opinion. If they were to do this, it would be to prevent a line shutdown or pause. It would not be for an end of the line order per se.

I'm of mixed opinion. DL could do this, but does it make sense? Does it make sense for RR? For Airbus? Only if all 3 agree and a financing company does this happen.

It makes more sense to start an A338F. The MTOW increased enough that the A338F would be, in my opinion, much more attractive than the A332 based A330F and sell better. The issue is the 777-300ERSF. A business case spoiler.

Lightsaber


Could an A338F be used as the basis of an improved MRTT? As I recall the MRTT uses the original A330/A340 wing, and the places where the #1 and #4 engeines of the A340 would attach are used as attachment points for the wing mounted hose and drogue ports. It's my understanding that the A340 NEO wing removes the legacy A340 quad engine hardware.

Honestly I only see a neo MRTT if the US Air Force selects it in some competition. Most nations have small tanker fleets, if they have any at all. Most of the heavy hitters in the market have already selected and received MRTTs, they are not going to want to order a couple more that have completely different engines than the rest of their fleet. And of course all MRTTs are too new to justify replacement. Only someone like the US would bring enough volume to justify a neo MRTT at this time. The EU nations are not going to collectedly come together again and buy in bulk anytime soon like they did to get ball rolling on original MRTT-they don’t need to double their fleet.

Beyond just development costs many of the tanker testing and certification will have to be replicated as the neo has has different wake properties than the ceo due to the new engines and wingtips, which is important when you are talking about having other planes in close proximity to the tanker.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:08 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
...
No good way out for the A330neo, lowering the price will worsen the loss on each frame.

I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.

Interestingly enough, even pre-COVID, AAX executives were saying how they found A321neo was doing well on routes they thought they would want A330 on.

Wildlander wrote:
The future? Convincing/persuading A320 Family operators in search of adding or replacing a small widebody fleet that the NEO offers better economic synergy?

If you are referring to A330neo, the flow seems to be the opposite, traditional A330 operators discovering they can service many routes more profitably with the flexibility and lower trip costs offered by a smaller plane. Of course COVID makes it even more difficult to find enough pax wanting to go to the same place at the same time and pay a good fare to do so.
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:25 pm

astuteman wrote:
its not like there's a large deferred production cost that needs to be financed.

Deferred production costs are already financed, they are a loan from B to B.

Wildlander wrote:
Airbus ended the A300-600F line as orders were down to a handful of planes, only to see the market rebound when the supply chain had started scrapping jigs and fixtures. Looking at 767F sales since then, you might imagine that they regretted this choice. Stopping a line is a huge decision when you don't have a shoe-in replacement to offer.

Doubt it. UPS took A380F largely to get out from under a bunch of A300F orders they no longer wanted and that was 20 years ago. Whatever upside there might be for still having A300F on the market would be swamped by the down side of having to keep a 70s era production line and supply chain ticking along at a tiny rate waiting for a market rebound, one which may or may not have occurred.

Polot wrote:
Honestly I only see a neo MRTT if the US Air Force selects it in some competition. Most nations have small tanker fleets, if they have any at all. Most of the heavy hitters in the market have already selected and received MRTTs, they are not going to want to order a couple more that have completely different engines than the rest of their fleet. And of course all MRTTs are too new to justify replacement. Only someone like the US would bring enough volume to justify a neo MRTT at this time. The EU nations are not going to collectedly come together again and buy in bulk anytime soon like they did to get ball rolling on original MRTT-they don’t need to double their fleet.

And despite USAF complaining about various issues with KC-46 and Boeing continuing to take write downs on the program, Congress just put out a contract for more frames and Boeing signed it.
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
Doubt it. UPS took A380F largely to get out from under a bunch of A300F orders they no longer wanted and that was 20 years ago. Whatever upside there might be for still having A300F on the market would be swamped by the down side of having to keep a 70s era production line and supply chain ticking along at a tiny rate waiting for a market rebound, one which may or may not have occurred.

Also important to remember the 767F is surviving because of the tanker. 767F orders alone are not keeping that line open.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:41 pm

I don't want to deviate too far from the core A330 thread subject, but the A300F shutdown arguably handed Boeing monopoly 767F pricing and ultimately helped to keep the line alive while the KC- contest was lost/won. Equally, if I recall correctly, the freight market dynamics evolved and UPS were back looking for A300F type freighters just a few months after the line was closed. I don't recall why, but UPS 767F orders ensued. The A330NEO case is not the same admittedly, but the consequences might be. Who knows? Not I for one.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:41 pm

Polot wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Doubt it. UPS took A380F largely to get out from under a bunch of A300F orders they no longer wanted and that was 20 years ago. Whatever upside there might be for still having A300F on the market would be swamped by the down side of having to keep a 70s era production line and supply chain ticking along at a tiny rate waiting for a market rebound, one which may or may not have occurred.

Also important to remember the 767F is surviving because of the tanker. 767F orders alone are not keeping that line open.

Yes. Team A tried to make the "freighter + tanker = success" formula work for A330ceo, with IMO disappointing results.
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jeffrey0032j
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:58 pm

Wildlander wrote:
I don't want to deviate too far from the core A330 thread subject, but the A300F shutdown arguably handed Boeing monopoly 767F pricing and ultimately helped to keep the line alive while the KC- contest was lost/won. Equally, if I recall correctly, the freight market dynamics evolved and UPS were back looking for A300F type freighters just a few months after the line was closed. I don't recall why, but UPS 767F orders ensued. The A330NEO case is not the same admittedly, but the consequences might be. Who knows? Not I for one.

Thats because the A330 is too big for the A300/767 stands that those A300/767s use, yet it is nowhere as capable as the next sweet spot in the market, which the 777F is holding strong.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:06 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Jetport wrote:
If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

To beat the prior price, I believe Airbus and RR would both have to take a loss, in my opinion. If they were to do this, it would be to prevent a line shutdown or pause. It would not be for an end of the line order per se.

I'm of mixed opinion. DL could do this, but does it make sense? Does it make sense for RR? For Airbus? Only if all 3 agree and a financing company does this happen.

It makes more sense to start an A338F. The MTOW increased enough that the A338F would be, in my opinion, much more attractive than the A332 based A330F and sell better. The issue is the 777-300ERSF. A business case spoiler.

Lightsaber


Could an A338F be used as the basis of an improved MRTT? As I recall the MRTT uses the original A330/A340 wing, and the places where the #1 and #4 engeines of the A340 would attach are used as attachment points for the wing mounted hose and drogue ports. It's my understanding that the A340 NEO wing removes the legacy A340 quad engine hardware.

You would find that military forces would tend to prefer proven engine families instead of going for newer tech. They are not as concerned about fuel efficiencies as reliability and ease of maintenance. The newer CF6s were only hung on C-5Ms 20 years after they were first hung on 767s and it took the USAF another 10 years to phase out the truly amazing but fuel guzzling TF39s (age and maintenance costs also began to affect the TF39s by then). The low oil prices right now and the abundance of A330ceos that can either be converted or used as parts makes a A330neoMRTT unlikely. Even if Airbus decides to bleed money on the A330 program, they will still produce the MRTT based on the ceos.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:52 pm

Capricorn wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Capricorn wrote:
I still think that Airbus would need a second smaller WB more urgently than Boeing (The Airbus version of the NMA), as IMO there is a market a little below the 788/338 that is not yet effectively served, something that Boeing understood correctly.


That's a market that can never be served economically due to legislative limitations. Airbus and Boeing are right to ignore it.


Could you explain why (genuine question no utirior motive )? I am an aviation novice so I don'r quite understand. IMO the 767 is still without a true successor and I believe there is market for a NMA plane. Also for leisure airlines (the likes of DE) and the few long haul LCCs still holding on that might be the plane they need, as the current generation of airplanes is slightly too big. And with potential less premium heavy long haul flying as well as the increase of secondary hubs by various airlines I think that there would be more and more of a business case for such a plane.

But my thinking might be wrong, so I am interested in your answer. (Mods: if this is the wrong topic as it is slightly OT please do with this post as you please)


It is the requirement that a passenger can't be seated more than 2 seats from an aisle coupled with the fact that aisles don't generate profits and add weight and drag to the aircraft. The optimal fuselage width for the middle of the market aircraft sitting between the A321 and 787-8 is going to be one that seats 7 abreast. Take the 767. In economy, they typically come in a 2-3-2 configuration for 7 abreast. It has added a full aisle and all associated weight of a bigger fuselage and more drag in order to achieve a measly 1 additional passenger across than the A321.

For this concept to be truly efficient and competitive with smaller and larger types, you need a 3+4 configuration, and for several reasons, that's a horrible idea.
 
Alias1024
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:27 pm

Jetport wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
Aside from shaking down DL to take a few frames, the remainder of lease frames for Starlux and the line air Greenland frame who else is taking or able to take frames? Who would Airbus even target for more sales? This is sounding a lot more like the a380 order book in 2018


While it's not a great order book for the A330neo, the question Airbus has to answer is fundamentally different from the one they had with the A380. In the case of the A380 the aircraft was simply too large for most airlines. It was clear that apart from EK, the airplane was not wanted by anyone else going forward.

In the case of the A330neo they have very different questions. They center around the cost of limping along at low production for another half decade while waiting for the bulk of the A330ceo replacement cycle, and whether the potential sales there can justify the shorter term expenses. They also need to really think about what airlines are saying to them in regards to the A330neo versus 787 and whether they will be able to capture a significant portion of that replacement market. Another consideration is whether keeping 787 pricing honest is worth the expense of keeping the A330 line open. Boeing needs a lot of cash for NMA and 737MAX replacement down the road and keeping 787 pricing in check might help Airbus slow those programs down.


Losing money to keep your competitor from making money, or as you suggest to slow down their new programs is almost always a very bad strategy. Based on how easily and cheaply Boeing has been able to access capital recently, any Airbus strategy to reduce Boeings 787 profits by selling cheap A330NEO's would be doomed to failure and likely hurt Airbus as much or more than Boeing. Strategic loss making pricing is even dumber in a duopoly where both companies should be very profitable over the long term as long as they don't do stupid things like sell below their incremental cost of production.

I don't favor that strategy either but I'm sure it's somewhere in the deliberations. Perhaps not as the main purpose to extending the line but as a side benefit. The decision should come down to longer term sales prospects.

Speedy752 wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
Aside from shaking down DL to take a few frames, the remainder of lease frames for Starlux and the line air Greenland frame who else is taking or able to take frames? Who would Airbus even target for more sales? This is sounding a lot more like the a380 order book in 2018


While it's not a great order book for the A330neo, the question Airbus has to answer is fundamentally different from the one they had with the A380. In the case of the A380 the aircraft was simply too large for most airlines. It was clear that apart from EK, the airplane was not wanted by anyone else going forward.

In the case of the A330neo they have very different questions. They center around the cost of limping along at low production for another half decade while waiting for the bulk of the A330ceo replacement cycle, and whether the potential sales there can justify the shorter term expenses. They also need to really think about what airlines are saying to them in regards to the A330neo versus 787 and whether they will be able to capture a significant portion of that replacement market. Another consideration is whether keeping 787 pricing honest is worth the expense of keeping the A330 line open. Boeing needs a lot of cash for NMA and 737MAX replacement down the road and keeping 787 pricing in check might help Airbus slow those programs down.


I’d agree there’s a difference in a dead market vs a slow selling plane in a hot market. Isn’t the “pricing pressure” just ultimately hurting the a350? While it doesn’t directly compete with the 787, they are somewhat interchangeable for most operators so if Boeing overnight upped the price of 787s, airlines would instead buy a350s. Likewise without a “cheap” A330neo an a350 wouldn’t have to justify that price differential. I know it’s an AB argument, I just don’t think it really helps them in any way. They seem to be giving away A330neos as it is, as all programs feel the squeeze there will be less profit across the board with the rate drops. I would think it wiser to convert those to a350s and bump the rate to make more money on all the planes produced that period.

I also legitimately wonder which airlines would replace a ceo with neo in say 2026. Most large ceo operators already have 787 and/or a350s on the property or on order, it would make more sense to add to those orders vs keep another type. I guess that drives my a380 comparison, I don’t see any airlines who haven’t already expressed interest or ordered the type interested in it.


I tend to discount the idea that the A330neo is hurting A350 pricing in a significant manner. For example, at Delta the A350 is simply overbuilt for the missions they intend to use A330neo on, namely as a trans-Atlantic hauler and SEA-NE Asia. I believe that without the option of an A330neo they would have been a 787 customer rather than buying more A350s. They're big enough that they can justify both fleets.

The A350-900 is a fantastic airplane but if you don't need the extra 20-30t of lift, and all the expense that comes with it, then the A350 has a steep hill to climb to win an orders versus the 787-9. I wonder how many A330neo customers would be willing to convert to the less economical A350 versus getting their money back and buying Boeing.
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jbs2886
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:45 pm

JogiXFW wrote:
MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 may go to Condor and both A330-941 for Rwandair may go to Air Belgium..


Wait what? Condor doesn't have any aircraft orders, including A330s. Is this some new development? Also how can 1970 go to Cebu and "may" go to Condor?
 
Speedy752
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:52 am

VV wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:

I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.


I did not know it was strongly suggested by Tony Fernandez from Air Asia.
Was it part of that SFO investigation?

AAX and DL were clamoring for it, others came along for the ride. Fernandes’ fraud investigation wasn’t linked in any way to his pushing for the neo
 
JogiXFW
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:10 am

jbs2886 wrote:
JogiXFW wrote:
MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 may go to Condor and both A330-941 for Rwandair may go to Air Belgium..


Wait what? Condor doesn't have any aircraft orders, including A330s. Is this some new development? Also how can 1970 go to Cebu and "may" go to Condor?

Sorry for that, MSN1970 is assignd to Cebu together with 1973 and 1976 and will be retrofitted till 2022. So Cebu is not in a hurry for these frames
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:42 am

JogiXFW wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
JogiXFW wrote:
MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 may go to Condor and both A330-941 for Rwandair may go to Air Belgium..


Wait what? Condor doesn't have any aircraft orders, including A330s. Is this some new development? Also how can 1970 go to Cebu and "may" go to Condor?

Sorry for that, MSN1970 is assignd to Cebu together with 1973 and 1976 and will be retrofitted till 2022. So Cebu is not in a hurry for these frames


Yeah, it's Airbus who's in a hurry to dispose those unwanted MSNs... :duck:
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sat Mar 06, 2021 2:04 am

JogiXFW wrote:
Sorry for that, MSN1970 is assignd to Cebu together with 1973 and 1976 and will be retrofitted till 2022. So Cebu is not in a hurry for these frames

5J just got a syndicated loan approved worth P16B apart from a P12.5B stock rights offering.....

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... -bank-loan

Quote:
"Despite the revenue drought, Cebu Pacific said there are no plans to cancel or reduce new aircraft orders from Airbus, the European plane-maker. In fact, some orders are scheduled to arrive this year to replace some of the budget carrier’s old planes, which were either sold already or awaiting to be surrendered to lessors."
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Sat Mar 06, 2021 2:39 am

Polot wrote:
Honestly I only see a neo MRTT if the US Air Force selects it in some competition. Most nations have small tanker fleets, if they have any at all. Most of the heavy hitters in the market have already selected and received MRTTs, they are not going to want to order a couple more that have completely different engines than the rest of their fleet. And of course all MRTTs are too new to justify replacement. Only someone like the US would bring enough volume to justify a neo MRTT at this time. The EU nations are not going to collectedly come together again and buy in bulk anytime soon like they did to get ball rolling on original MRTT-they don’t need to double their fleet.

Beyond just development costs many of the tanker testing and certification will have to be replicated as the neo has has different wake properties than the ceo due to the new engines and wingtips, which is important when you are talking about having other planes in close proximity to the tanker.

There is not much point in offering a A338 MRTT unless there is a large USAF order - most air forces who ordered the A332 MRTT are unlikely to order it because there is still a lot of life left in their existing fleet. Besides, anyone that wants a MRTT will have a good supply of low cost A332 feedstock as they are retired from civil airline fleets.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:40 pm

There was mention in the A&B O/D thread that the 4x A338 GA MoU was just disclosed. So there's some hope yet for these "orphans" to be adopted? :scratchchin:
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:43 am

Could we please just discuss the topic without drifting off topic
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:01 am

Air Belgium will lease 2 A339 directly from AIB. MSN 1844 and 1861, orginally planed for Air Berlin, then NTU by RwandAir. Delivery is planned for Q3/Q4 2021
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:

I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.

The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume.

The A330NEO needed AirAsiaX's volume and Tony took advantage of that negotiating. With AirAsiaX unable to afford deliveries and Delta differing, I am very curious as to the next two years production rate.

Lightsaber


I think there is made a far to big deal out of the low production rate of the A330 at Airbus. The frames are produced on the already amortised A330 production lines. So we talk about low fixed cost.
The A330neo is not a completely new product, but just two new models of the A330. So low development cost.

If we look at Boeing and the 767, a frame not matching the sales of the A330 in total, we see the the 767-400 a development comparable to the A330neo, hardly a bigger success than the A330neo and we see the 767 yearly production rate, all frames, dipping below 10 frames a year in 2004 and 2014 and being below 20 in altogether 11 years. I am a bit curious how people think that those low production rates are OK at Boeing, but catastrophic at Airbus.

I am sure that low production numbers for the A330, all models for a few years will not be a big bother to Airbus.
Sales will pick up again, when the covid crisis is over.
The replacement market of the A330ceo has also to mature, the bigger part of those frames a below 15 years of age.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:11 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.

The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume.

The A330NEO needed AirAsiaX's volume and Tony took advantage of that negotiating. With AirAsiaX unable to afford deliveries and Delta differing, I am very curious as to the next two years production rate.

Lightsaber


The replacement market of the A330ceo has also to mature, the bigger part of those frames a below 15 years of age.


Almost half are 10 years or younger, but even on 10+2 year leases replacement orders should start coming in right around now, but are probably delayed by Covid and uncertainty.
Travel picking up somewhat quickly may change that... CO2 certificate trading expanded into aviation should accelerate that.

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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:33 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume.

The A330NEO needed AirAsiaX's volume and Tony took advantage of that negotiating. With AirAsiaX unable to afford deliveries and Delta differing, I am very curious as to the next two years production rate.

I think there is made a far to big deal out of the low production rate of the A330 at Airbus. The frames are produced on the already amortised A330 production lines. So we talk about low fixed cost.
The A330neo is not a completely new product, but just two new models of the A330. So low development cost.

If we look at Boeing and the 767, a frame not matching the sales of the A330 in total, we see the the 767-400 a development comparable to the A330neo, hardly a bigger success than the A330neo and we see the 767 yearly production rate, all frames, dipping below 10 frames a year in 2004 and 2014 and being below 20 in altogether 11 years. I am a bit curious how people think that those low production rates are OK at Boeing, but catastrophic at Airbus.

I am sure that low production numbers for the A330, all models for a few years will not be a big bother to Airbus.
Sales will pick up again, when the covid crisis is over.
The replacement market of the A330ceo has also to mature, the bigger part of those frames a below 15 years of age.

Interesting you went A vs B when no one is asserting anything about Boeing in this discussion...

Clearly the current 767 target market is different than the A330neo target market.

Boeing made a lot of changes to its production line once it won the tanker contract to stay efficient with a lower production rate.

Clearly what happened with 764 in the past is of little relevance now, it is no longer on the market.

FX, UP and US DoD are pretty solid customers to have.

Clearly it's a different situation than having the A330neo's biggest customer not taking deliveries and Airbus having to deal with white tails and over-production during the biggest aviation market crash in recorded history.
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:44 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.

The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume.

The A330NEO needed AirAsiaX's volume and Tony took advantage of that negotiating. With AirAsiaX unable to afford deliveries and Delta differing, I am very curious as to the next two years production rate.

Lightsaber


I think there is made a far to big deal out of the low production rate of the A330 at Airbus. The frames are produced on the already amortised A330 production lines. So we talk about low fixed cost.
The A330neo is not a completely new product, but just two new models of the A330. So low development cost.

If we look at Boeing and the 767, a frame not matching the sales of the A330 in total, we see the the 767-400 a development comparable to the A330neo, hardly a bigger success than the A330neo and we see the 767 yearly production rate, all frames, dipping below 10 frames a year in 2004 and 2014 and being below 20 in altogether 11 years. I am a bit curious how people think that those low production rates are OK at Boeing, but catastrophic at Airbus.

I am sure that low production numbers for the A330, all models for a few years will not be a big bother to Airbus.
Sales will pick up again, when the covid crisis is over.
The replacement market of the A330ceo has also to mature, the bigger part of those frames a below 15 years of age.

The difference between the 767 and the A330 is, the A330 just had an expensive refresh (vis-a-vis the 767), and the 764 was cancelled and costs presumably written off. The main commercial 767 frame being produced now is the 763, which is close to a 40 year old design, in which the bulk of the development costs have been recouped many folds over. The total 767 sales may not match the 330, but the 767 is a smaller plane that costs less to produce, and thus easier to put it on low rate production vs the bulky A330.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume.

The A330NEO needed AirAsiaX's volume and Tony took advantage of that negotiating. With AirAsiaX unable to afford deliveries and Delta differing, I am very curious as to the next two years production rate.

I think there is made a far to big deal out of the low production rate of the A330 at Airbus. The frames are produced on the already amortised A330 production lines. So we talk about low fixed cost.
The A330neo is not a completely new product, but just two new models of the A330. So low development cost.

If we look at Boeing and the 767, a frame not matching the sales of the A330 in total, we see the the 767-400 a development comparable to the A330neo, hardly a bigger success than the A330neo and we see the 767 yearly production rate, all frames, dipping below 10 frames a year in 2004 and 2014 and being below 20 in altogether 11 years. I am a bit curious how people think that those low production rates are OK at Boeing, but catastrophic at Airbus.

I am sure that low production numbers for the A330, all models for a few years will not be a big bother to Airbus.
Sales will pick up again, when the covid crisis is over.
The replacement market of the A330ceo has also to mature, the bigger part of those frames a below 15 years of age.

Interesting you went A vs B when no one is asserting anything about Boeing in this discussion...

Clearly the current 767 target market is different than the A330neo target market.

Boeing made a lot of changes to its production line once it won the tanker contract to stay efficient with a lower production rate.

Clearly what happened with 764 in the past is of little relevance now, it is no longer on the market.

FX, UP and US DoD are pretty solid customers to have.

Clearly it's a different situation than having the A330neo's biggest customer not taking deliveries and Airbus having to deal with white tails and over-production during the biggest aviation market crash in recorded history.


Not to mention, I'm yet to meet someone who has said the 764 was a success. Because it simply wasn't.

And this is waaay off topic.
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:07 pm

It is a shame because the A 330neo is good aircraft, and I think ideally suited to the TATL market or intra-Asian regional flying. Basically anything up to about 4,000 nautical miles. But who will buy it in the current market environment?

My thought would be Chinese carriers, but they have quite a few relatively new A330ceo's. It might be a tough slog to survive the next 3-5 years.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:20 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The low rate would be very difficult to make a profit. Tooling, machinery, and people were staffed for a higher volume.

The A330NEO needed AirAsiaX's volume and Tony took advantage of that negotiating. With AirAsiaX unable to afford deliveries and Delta differing, I am very curious as to the next two years production rate.

Lightsaber


I think there is made a far to big deal out of the low production rate of the A330 at Airbus. The frames are produced on the already amortised A330 production lines. So we talk about low fixed cost.
The A330neo is not a completely new product, but just two new models of the A330. So low development cost.

If we look at Boeing and the 767, a frame not matching the sales of the A330 in total, we see the the 767-400 a development comparable to the A330neo, hardly a bigger success than the A330neo and we see the 767 yearly production rate, all frames, dipping below 10 frames a year in 2004 and 2014 and being below 20 in altogether 11 years. I am a bit curious how people think that those low production rates are OK at Boeing, but catastrophic at Airbus.

I am sure that low production numbers for the A330, all models for a few years will not be a big bother to Airbus.
Sales will pick up again, when the covid crisis is over.
The replacement market of the A330ceo has also to mature, the bigger part of those frames a below 15 years of age.

The difference between the 767 and the A330 is, the A330 just had an expensive refresh (vis-a-vis the 767), and the 764 was cancelled and costs presumably written off. The main commercial 767 frame being produced now is the 763, which is close to a 40 year old design, in which the bulk of the development costs have been recouped many folds over. The total 767 sales may not match the 330, but the 767 is a smaller plane that costs less to produce, and thus easier to put it on low rate production vs the bulky A330.

I personally believe the 767 was produced at a loss for many years in anticipation of the KC-46A tanker program. Now, I'm going to be lazy and just link to Wikipedia that the US Air force tanker program started in 2001.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_KC-46_Pegasus

So Boeing made a strategic decision to take, in my opinion, a loss on the commercial 767 for the sake of the tanker program. A tanker program that was a long, protracted bid that was contested and contested again. :box: Wikipedia has a good summary.

I also believe Boeing thought they could win more orders for the 767F. They didn't until later. Oops.

So my opinion on the 767 is the same as the A330NEO; the 767 was just strung along in hopes for the KC-46A. I cannot see how Airbus can make a profit off production. The development cost is a sunk cost built off a strategic decision. I do not like discussing items that belong in the sunk cost falacy. Both companies made strategic development decisions that lost money. Oops. If companies are not making some mistakes, they are not developing enough new product, in my opinion.


I seem to be the only one who thinks an A338F would do well. That is based on my opinion that it would have enough range for TATL missions and my opinion the lack of such range handicapped sales of the original A330F.

The niche of the A339 is the lowest cost widebody. That competes with the A321xLR (lower cost for some of the missions), 788, and why Boeing keeps looking at a new widebody. I believe the niche is too contested. In particular, the A321xLR has exceeded my expectations.

I further expect a Boeing -9ER to compete. This isn't A vs. B, but natural market changes due to competition.

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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:43 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I seem to be the only one who thinks an A338F would do well. That is based on my opinion that it would have enough range for TATL missions and my opinion the lack of such range handicapped sales of the original A330F.

The niche of the A339 is the lowest cost widebody. That competes with the A321xLR (lower cost for some of the missions), 788, and why Boeing keeps looking at a new widebody. I believe the niche is too contested. In particular, the A321xLR has exceeded my expectations.

I further expect a Boeing -9ER to compete. This isn't A vs. B, but natural market changes due to competition.

I think the battle for the A330F's size class is over. It was won by placing 767F in large numbers at FX and UP. Of course, winning the tanker deal helps too, it only adds to the number of trained pilots who will be happy to fly 767F after their military career is over, and guarantees 767F will be supported for decades to come. We can't say the same about A330neo and it's one-off engine. We have indications that we will see 764Fneo with GeNX engines in a few years. It'll make that market segment even more difficult to enter.

I think Airbus's best option is to do A350F. It's much more compelling in terms of payload, range, capacity and longevity. If they haven't figured out a way to produce them at low cost by now, that's on them. They started with a clean sheet and they saw the early market adoption rates so they had every reason to invest in design for manufacturability. They have a clear window right now where freight operators are earning strong profits and Boeing is in transition with regard to 777F and many other things. Time to go for it, says I.

As much as I like A330neo from a pax-ex point of view and find it quite visually appealing, it largely seems redundant in their product line up and not particularly well wanted by customers. The AirAsiaX situation has left the program in shambles. Even before covid, AAX was saying how they were finding they could do many former A330 routes better with A321. Post covid, it's hard to see how that fundamental issue gets resolved in A330neo's favor.
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I seem to be the only one who thinks an A338F would do well. That is based on my opinion that it would have enough range for TATL missions and my opinion the lack of such range handicapped sales of the original A330F.

The niche of the A339 is the lowest cost widebody. That competes with the A321xLR (lower cost for some of the missions), 788, and why Boeing keeps looking at a new widebody. I believe the niche is too contested. In particular, the A321xLR has exceeded my expectations.

I further expect a Boeing -9ER to compete. This isn't A vs. B, but natural market changes due to competition.

I think the battle for the A330F's size class is over. It was won by placing 767F in large numbers at FX and UP. Of course, winning the tanker deal helps too, it only adds to the number of trained pilots who will be happy to fly 767F after their military career is over, and guarantees 767F will be supported for decades to come. We can't say the same about A330neo and it's one-off engine. We have indications that we will see 764Fneo with GeNX engines in a few years. It'll make that market segment even more difficult to enter.

I think Airbus's best option is to do A350F. It's much more compelling in terms of payload, range, capacity and longevity. If they haven't figured out a way to produce them at low cost by now, that's on them. They started with a clean sheet and they saw the early market adoption rates so they had every reason to invest in design for manufacturability. They have a clear window right now where freight operators are earning strong profits and Boeing is in transition with regard to 777F and many other things. Time to go for it, says I.

As much as I like A330neo from a pax-ex point of view and find it quite visually appealing, it largely seems redundant in their product line up and not particularly well wanted by customers. The AirAsiaX situation has left the program in shambles. Even before covid, AAX was saying how they were finding they could do many former A330 routes better with A321. Post covid, it's hard to see how that fundamental issue gets resolved in A330neo's favor.


Yes - I would agree it's time for A to start with the 350F but as you point correctly point out it's expensive to manufacture. If A does do the 350F they may be wise to do once over on the whole program like Boeing did with the 787 and take a lot of cost out of it. The 350 is real hot rod - which is not really needed in a Freighter where low unit cost rules.

The 350 will probably not be replaced until at least the late 2040's - a couple billion of investment on an F and improvements to the manufacturing process - substituting stainless for expensive titanium could be wise - even if it does increase weight/decrease performance slightly - which should be easy to make up with a PIP and aero clean-up. But if the end result is a frame that can be built for a bunch less than current and a A350F could be feasible and help with more sales of the passenger models due to being able to offer them at a lower price that is all good.

Basically add strength to the F by substituting steel for Ti and carry over those parts to -900/1000. It's not like those frames don't have enough capability.

Lower the cost of the 350 and put a bullet in the 330NEO.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:28 pm

morrisond wrote:
[Lower the cost of the 350 and put a bullet in the 330NEO.


... which is unlikely. The A330 MRTT is build on the same line as far as I remember, and there are both orders to be fulfilled as well as several top-up or new order prospects in the market. Closing down the A330 line means closing down this market opportunity, too, and that´s something I deem very unlikely. Might as well continue to build A330 MRTT and A330neos on the same line and have at least some productivity in the line.

In principle the case for the 767 reloaded. Only that the tankers are build and a drought on the civilian side needs to be covered for some time.
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:54 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
morrisond wrote:
[Lower the cost of the 350 and put a bullet in the 330NEO.


... which is unlikely. The A330 MRTT is build on the same line as far as I remember, and there are both orders to be fulfilled as well as several top-up or new order prospects in the market. Closing down the A330 line means closing down this market opportunity, too, and that´s something I deem very unlikely. Might as well continue to build A330 MRTT and A330neos on the same line and have at least some productivity in the line.

In principle the case for the 767 reloaded. Only that the tankers are build and a drought on the civilian side needs to be covered for some time.


I meant - stop investing in the 330 and let it die a natural death after the orders are fulfilled.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:57 pm

morrisond wrote:
Flying-Tiger wrote:
morrisond wrote:
[Lower the cost of the 350 and put a bullet in the 330NEO.


... which is unlikely. The A330 MRTT is build on the same line as far as I remember, and there are both orders to be fulfilled as well as several top-up or new order prospects in the market. Closing down the A330 line means closing down this market opportunity, too, and that´s something I deem very unlikely. Might as well continue to build A330 MRTT and A330neos on the same line and have at least some productivity in the line.

In principle the case for the 767 reloaded. Only that the tankers are build and a drought on the civilian side needs to be covered for some time.


I meant - stop investing in the 330 and let it die a natural death after the orders are fulfilled.


Would be a dream for Boeing.

When the A330 came and heavily outsold the 767, the 767 was not retired by Boeing trough years of very low production rates, lower than we expect now for the A330.
The A330 production lines are already amortized. The development of the new models were not expensive and without expensive mistakes. No reason to despair because of some years with low production rates.

In the 11 years since the 787 started deliveries, 997 787 were delivered and 849 A330, the bigger part of the whole production of that program. Most of the time the A330 having a small backlog compared to the 787.
There are 68 operators of 787 with 997 frames and 124 operators with 1434 A330 in operation today. I do not expect the A330neo to sell as well as the 787, but I expect it to take some of the replacement market. Perhaps similar as the 737max sells compared to the A320neo, about one to two.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:18 am

mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Flying-Tiger wrote:

... which is unlikely. The A330 MRTT is build on the same line as far as I remember, and there are both orders to be fulfilled as well as several top-up or new order prospects in the market. Closing down the A330 line means closing down this market opportunity, too, and that´s something I deem very unlikely. Might as well continue to build A330 MRTT and A330neos on the same line and have at least some productivity in the line.

In principle the case for the 767 reloaded. Only that the tankers are build and a drought on the civilian side needs to be covered for some time.


I meant - stop investing in the 330 and let it die a natural death after the orders are fulfilled.


Would be a dream for Boeing.

When the A330 came and heavily outsold the 767, the 767 was not retired by Boeing trough years of very low production rates, lower than we expect now for the A330.
The A330 production lines are already amortized. The development of the new models were not expensive and without expensive mistakes. No reason to despair because of some years with low production rates.

In the 11 years since the 787 started deliveries, 997 787 were delivered and 849 A330, the bigger part of the whole production of that program. Most of the time the A330 having a small backlog compared to the 787.
There are 68 operators of 787 with 997 frames and 124 operators with 1434 A330 in operation today. I do not expect the A330neo to sell as well as the 787, but I expect it to take some of the replacement market. Perhaps similar as the 737max sells compared to the A320neo, about one to two.


A330NEO vs. 787 is not remotely similar to A320NEO vs. 737MAX. The 787 is superior to the A330 in every way. The only reason to buy an A330 would be for commonality and/or price. Airbus can't make money if they sell the A330NEO on price. Delta apparently got a crazy low price, Airbus would be better off financially closing the line than selling at Delta prices in the future. If Airbus keeps the A330NEO line running they will be lucky to get 10% of future orders vs. the 787.

The A320NEO family is more efficient on longer routes and the A321NEO model holds more bodies than the 737MAX 9/10. The MAX is more efficient at short and mid range routes (most routes flown by most airlines). The MAX is also apparently cheaper to buy. Both models have strong selling points depending on network and commonality with current fleet composition.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:49 am

Revelation wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I seem to be the only one who thinks an A338F would do well. That is based on my opinion that it would have enough range for TATL missions and my opinion the lack of such range handicapped sales of the original A330F.

The niche of the A339 is the lowest cost widebody. That competes with the A321xLR (lower cost for some of the missions), 788, and why Boeing keeps looking at a new widebody. I believe the niche is too contested. In particular, the A321xLR has exceeded my expectations.

I further expect a Boeing -9ER to compete. This isn't A vs. B, but natural market changes due to competition.

I think the battle for the A330F's size class is over. It was won by placing 767F in large numbers at FX and UP. Of course, winning the tanker deal helps too, it only adds to the number of trained pilots who will be happy to fly 767F after their military career is over, and guarantees 767F will be supported for decades to come. We can't say the same about A330neo and it's one-off engine. We have indications that we will see 764Fneo with GeNX engines in a few years. It'll make that market segment even more difficult to enter.

I think Airbus's best option is to do A350F. It's much more compelling in terms of payload, range, capacity and longevity. If they haven't figured out a way to produce them at low cost by now, that's on them. They started with a clean sheet and they saw the early market adoption rates so they had every reason to invest in design for manufacturability. They have a clear window right now where freight operators are earning strong profits and Boeing is in transition with regard to 777F and many other things. Time to go for it, says I.

As much as I like A330neo from a pax-ex point of view and find it quite visually appealing, it largely seems redundant in their product line up and not particularly well wanted by customers. The AirAsiaX situation has left the program in shambles. Even before covid, AAX was saying how they were finding they could do many former A330 routes better with A321. Post covid, it's hard to see how that fundamental issue gets resolved in A330neo's favor.

Well have to disagree in the market size of an A338F. Let us say I know I seem to be the lone holdout. ;)

I will agree that the current situation at AirAsiaX has indeed left the A330NEO program with a handicap as they do not need the lift and the A321 fills to much of the A330 niche. (CEO, NEO, and xLR). I agree, the fundamentals are not in the A330NEOs favor.

I see it as the 717 of widebodies. :duck: Well loved by enthusiasts and passengers, but a limited market.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
amdiesen
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:36 am

Flying-Tiger wrote:
...
The A330 MRTT is build on the same line as far as I remember, and there are both orders to be fulfilled as well as several top-up or new order prospects in the market. Closing down the A330 line means closing down this market opportunity, too, and that´s something I deem very unlikely. Might as well continue to build A330 MRTT and A330neos on the same line and have at least some productivity in the line.

In principle the case for the 767 reloaded. Only that the tankers are build and a drought on the civilian side needs to be covered for some time.


The gap between the A321neo and the A359ultrafan (if the engine will fit on the wings) is pronounced. Airbus is good at tactics and may view this as a space for their version of NMA and adapt the conceptual design after the market responses to the Boeing version.
With the substantive materials and human resources infrastructure built around the a330, the a339p market demand still has a heart beat. However, one might consider that this will be leasing companies filling utility for airlines that do not have pricing power for large b787/a350 orders. Thus until time and economics inspires airbus to launch a NMA, keeping the neo has a number of positive arguments, not the least of which is standing with the supply chain. A strategy for achieving a330neo sales may be a persistant accumulation of small orders; perhaps offering to buy-back a333s for freighter conversions as a purchase incentive.

However, the MRTT twilights with a saturated market and disrupting tech (tanker drones). Orders will fill on the a332 platform. IMO, the market is x < 20 and the MRTT application can be applied to used frames (which are currently inexpensive). Further, one should anticipate/prognosticate that the 767 tanker program will not reach its anticipated delivery numbers as the likely-hood that the US will have a credit event, or at minimum an abrupt belt-tighting, increases in probability.

Regarding the market that the a338f could competently fill; the re-iterative puzzle leads one to ask if a b788p2f will fulfill the utility. It is a growing hypothesis in my mind that the 787 platform will not produce a new-build freighter variant despite design anticipation/plan. What appears more likely is that Boeing will launch a BCF program for the 787. This program could share the line with the upcoming 777 conversion aspiration. One of Boeing's motivations will be to remove passenger supply from a over-saturated market in a method that supports the supply chain. note: DHL's commitment to the a333p2f and the youthful age of the global b789 fleet makes a b789p2f untimely and without demand support. However, would a b788bcf meet utility expectations? tatl range? ~general freight density? Respects to Lightsaber's knowledge and hypothesis; his commentary over time makes a compelling argument for this market segment.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
smartplane
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:39 am

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think the battle for the A330F's size class is over. It was won by placing 767F in large numbers at FX and UP. Of course, winning the tanker deal helps too, it only adds to the number of trained pilots who will be happy to fly 767F after their military career is over, and guarantees 767F will be supported for decades to come. We can't say the same about A330neo and it's one-off engine. We have indications that we will see 764Fneo with GeNX engines in a few years. It'll make that market segment even more difficult to enter.

I think Airbus's best option is to do A350F. It's much more compelling in terms of payload, range, capacity and longevity. If they haven't figured out a way to produce them at low cost by now, that's on them. They started with a clean sheet and they saw the early market adoption rates so they had every reason to invest in design for manufacturability. They have a clear window right now where freight operators are earning strong profits and Boeing is in transition with regard to 777F and many other things. Time to go for it, says I.

As much as I like A330neo from a pax-ex point of view and find it quite visually appealing, it largely seems redundant in their product line up and not particularly well wanted by customers. The AirAsiaX situation has left the program in shambles. Even before covid, AAX was saying how they were finding they could do many former A330 routes better with A321. Post covid, it's hard to see how that fundamental issue gets resolved in A330neo's favor.

Well have to disagree in the market size of an A338F. Let us say I know I seem to be the lone holdout. ;)

I will agree that the current situation at AirAsiaX has indeed left the A330NEO program with a handicap as they do not need the lift and the A321 fills to much of the A330 niche. (CEO, NEO, and xLR). I agree, the fundamentals are not in the A330NEOs favor.

I see it as the 717 of widebodies. :duck: Well loved by enthusiasts and passengers, but a limited market.

And well-loved by financiers, lessors, and operators of smaller fleets. 787 software management is seen as too complex. Try re-possessing from a debtor unwilling to co-operate. Grounding it with Boeing's assistance not a problem. Extracting it a different matter.

Airbus still have NEO enhancements ready, but the reduction in A350 production has delayed when these can be announced.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:59 am

Jetport wrote:
The 787 is superior to the A330 in every way. .


Aside of field performance, offering 10~12 more seats in comparable cabin configurations (check Virgin Atlantic Seat maps) or 20-ish more seats for a ULCC you would be right. And considering the significantly higher wing aspect ratio a touch lower fuel burn wouldn´t be all too surprising and is a given on a per seat basis, unless you want to claim the Neo burns 4-5% more per Aircraft mile.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:00 am

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I seem to be the only one who thinks an A338F would do well. That is based on my opinion that it would have enough range for TATL missions and my opinion the lack of such range handicapped sales of the original A330F.

The niche of the A339 is the lowest cost widebody. That competes with the A321xLR (lower cost for some of the missions), 788, and why Boeing keeps looking at a new widebody. I believe the niche is too contested. In particular, the A321xLR has exceeded my expectations.

I further expect a Boeing -9ER to compete. This isn't A vs. B, but natural market changes due to competition.

I think the battle for the A330F's size class is over. It was won by placing 767F in large numbers at FX and UP. Of course, winning the tanker deal helps too, it only adds to the number of trained pilots who will be happy to fly 767F after their military career is over, and guarantees 767F will be supported for decades to come. We can't say the same about A330neo and it's one-off engine. We have indications that we will see 764Fneo with GeNX engines in a few years. It'll make that market segment even more difficult to enter.

I think Airbus's best option is to do A350F. It's much more compelling in terms of payload, range, capacity and longevity. If they haven't figured out a way to produce them at low cost by now, that's on them. They started with a clean sheet and they saw the early market adoption rates so they had every reason to invest in design for manufacturability. They have a clear window right now where freight operators are earning strong profits and Boeing is in transition with regard to 777F and many other things. Time to go for it, says I.

As much as I like A330neo from a pax-ex point of view and find it quite visually appealing, it largely seems redundant in their product line up and not particularly well wanted by customers. The AirAsiaX situation has left the program in shambles. Even before covid, AAX was saying how they were finding they could do many former A330 routes better with A321. Post covid, it's hard to see how that fundamental issue gets resolved in A330neo's favor.

Well have to disagree in the market size of an A338F. Let us say I know I seem to be the lone holdout. ;)

I will agree that the current situation at AirAsiaX has indeed left the A330NEO program with a handicap as they do not need the lift and the A321 fills to much of the A330 niche. (CEO, NEO, and xLR). I agree, the fundamentals are not in the A330NEOs favor.

I see it as the 717 of widebodies. :duck: Well loved by enthusiasts and passengers, but a limited market.

Lightsaber


I do not see any problem with Airbus running the A330 production at a low rate and making money. They used to do that in the early years of the A330 and the way the A330 is produced has not changed that much. The production facilities and tools for the A330 are amortised, so fixed cost should be low.
The A330 boom came at about the same time the 787 went into production. I see a much bigger problem for Boeing having to cut the 787 production, as they speculated on numbers to cut cost.

If new lift is needed the A330s will sell, especially to the smaller operators having already A330. If no new lift is needed, with most A330 and 787 being rather young, both will not sell.
In regards to performance, the gab between the A330neo and 787 is smaller in reality, than the propaganda here on A.net wants to have it.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:10 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
The 787 is superior to the A330 in every way. .


Aside of field performance, offering 10~12 more seats in comparable cabin configurations (check Virgin Atlantic Seat maps) or 20-ish more seats for a ULCC you would be right. And considering the significantly higher wing aspect ratio a touch lower fuel burn wouldn´t be all too surprising and is a given on a per seat basis, unless you want to claim the Neo burns 4-5% more per Aircraft mile.

best regards
Thomas

The A330neo and 787 have very similar aspect ratios. You have to be careful, wing aspect ratio depends of course on wing areas and there are various ways to calculate that, which will result in slightly different aspect ratio values. Just using the wing areas found on Wikipedia for example would give the 787 a higher aspect ratio. From what I’ve heard the 787 wing is slightly more efficient in flight (not surprising considering it is ~10-15 year old newer design).

mjoelnir wrote:
I do not see any problem with Airbus running the A330 production at a low rate and making money. They used to do that in the early years of the A330 and the way the A330 is produced has not changed that much. The production facilities and tools for the A330 are amortised, so fixed cost should be low.
The A330 boom came at about the same time the 787 went into production. I see a much bigger problem for Boeing having to cut the 787 production, as they speculated on numbers to cut cost.

In the early years of the A330 the A330 was sharing production with the A340. You can’t forget that if you want to talk about production costs.
 
brindabella
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:05 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Flying-Tiger wrote:

... which is unlikely. The A330 MRTT is build on the same line as far as I remember, and there are both orders to be fulfilled as well as several top-up or new order prospects in the market. Closing down the A330 line means closing down this market opportunity, too, and that´s something I deem very unlikely. Might as well continue to build A330 MRTT and A330neos on the same line and have at least some productivity in the line.

In principle the case for the 767 reloaded. Only that the tankers are build and a drought on the civilian side needs to be covered for some time.


I meant - stop investing in the 330 and let it die a natural death after the orders are fulfilled.


Would be a dream for Boeing.


When the A330 came and heavily outsold the 767, the 767 was not retired by Boeing trough years of very low production rates, lower than we expect now for the A330.
The A330 production lines are already amortized. The development of the new models were not expensive and without expensive mistakes. No reason to despair because of some years with low production rates.

In the 11 years since the 787 started deliveries, 997 787 were delivered and 849 A330, the bigger part of the whole production of that program. Most of the time the A330 having a small backlog compared to the 787.
There are 68 operators of 787 with 997 frames and 124 operators with 1434 A330 in operation today. I do not expect the A330neo to sell as well as the 787, but I expect it to take some of the replacement market. Perhaps similar as the 737max sells compared to the A320neo, about one to two.


Thanks for that. It certainly clarifies many issues.


Would be a dream for Boeing.

Of course. For AB, having nothing at all between the A321neo and the A359 is NOT where you would want to be.
But what to do?
It is not clear that the market is ever going to buy the A330neo family from here on.
Maybe existing A330ceo operators?
Could be.
However the A330ceo was produced at a very high rate pre-COVID.
And now NOBODY is buying new WBs.
Enough said.

It made great strategic sense to bring the A330ceo family up to compete with the 787 family and offer a seamless WB range.
I supported the idea in that the upside for AB to have the A330neo compete with the 787 could work very well for AB IF ...
However I was always concerned that "upscaling" the A330 into the 787 space ultimately was not wise.
I think that is probably what has happened.

What to do?
Well, if the A330neo is not going to sell at a sufficient rate (that is, it continues to make losses), then the conundrum just gets worse.

:scratchchin: :scratchchin:

cheers
Billy
 
tommy1808
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:14 pm

brindabella wrote:
What to do?
Well, if the A330neo is not going to sell at a sufficient rate (that is, it continues to make losses), then the conundrum just gets worse.


That would be bad for the 787 and the A330neo though, considering that Airbus captured 40% of the market since Airlines did have a choice. Even discarding the AirAsiaX order the marketshare is probably worthwhile considering it cost nothing to develop, relatively speaking, tooling and trained staff is already there up and down the supply chain and when Airbus needs room to expand again there is all the space occupied by the A380 production to be converted first.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6

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