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Jetport
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:24 pm

If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:22 pm

Hmm... I don't know that taking planes you don't need is a good deal, even at 'incredible' prices. They could retire the 763s even faster - and so bury themselves in training events as they did with the rapid draw-down of MD-88s and MD-90s.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:18 pm

Jetport wrote:
If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

To beat the prior price, I believe Airbus and RR would both have to take a loss, in my opinion. If they were to do this, it would be to prevent a line shutdown or pause. It would not be for an end of the line order per se.

I'm of mixed opinion. DL could do this, but does it make sense? Does it make sense for RR? For Airbus? Only if all 3 agree and a financing company does this happen.

It makes more sense to start an A338F. The MTOW increased enough that the A338F would be, in my opinion, much more attractive than the A332 based A330F and sell better. The issue is the 777-300ERSF. A business case spoiler.

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Wildlander
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:37 pm

I would be happy to be proven wrong, but the A332F was a lesson learned the hard way and an A338F would not offer enough more/better to warrant the investment. The 767F, supported by the KC-46 long-term, will always beat it on price, there are oodles of A330s sitting around as A330P2F feedstock and the 777F is a clear winner in the heavier/longer-range category. If AIB do anything, I would expect an A350F to emerge to challenge the 777 monopoly.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:13 pm

Wildlander wrote:
I would be happy to be proven wrong, but the A332F was a lesson learned the hard way and an A338F would not offer enough more/better to warrant the investment. The 767F, supported by the KC-46 long-term, will always beat it on price, there are oodles of A330s sitting around as A330P2F feedstock and the 777F is a clear winner in the heavier/longer-range category. If AIB do anything, I would expect an A350F to emerge to challenge the 777 monopoly.

My opinion is that the A332F failed on lack of range for new build cost. My back of the envelope math says enough range is added to dramatically improve the business case. That said, it would compete with the lower acquisition cost 777-300ERSF.

So an opportunity missed? The more I think about it, the more I am convinced the opportunity came and went. :cry2:

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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:02 pm

Jetport wrote:
If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

And yet in another thread we read DL is losing $15M/day and is only running four A330s right now.

That $15M/day has to be coming from somewhere, be it savings or loans or equity, and will need to be replaced once income turns positive again.

DL worked hard post-BK to get into the financial condition to be able to extract big discounts from the vendors.

I doubt they're going to go on a buying splurge just to get new aircraft when they've shown they are comfortable operating aging aircraft.

I think it's more likely they go very conservative and run out their current fleet till they get their finances in good shape again, however long that takes.
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
Jetport wrote:
If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

And yet in another thread we read DL is losing $15M/day and is only running four A330s right now.

That $15M/day has to be coming from somewhere, be it savings or loans or equity, and will need to be replaced once income turns positive again.

DL worked hard post-BK to get into the financial condition to be able to extract big discounts from the vendors.

I doubt they're going to go on a buying splurge just to get new aircraft when they've shown they are comfortable operating aging aircraft.

I think it's more likely they go very conservative and run out their current fleet till they get their finances in good shape again, however long that takes.

You make an excellent point. The airlines that put their financial houses in order will earn vendor discounts There is a negotiations position that cannot be ignored.

Delta spent a year getting to where they were a year ago. They will do it again by being smart with aircraft.

If only 4 A330 are flying, there is no need for more.

Due to disease fears and the drop in business traffic, long haul will return slowly.

Airbus needs a plan for the A330NEO. I hope their Global Market Forecast comes out soon with that plan. (They skipped 2020.)

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Jetport
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
Jetport wrote:
If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

And yet in another thread we read DL is losing $15M/day and is only running four A330s right now.

That $15M/day has to be coming from somewhere, be it savings or loans or equity, and will need to be replaced once income turns positive again.

DL worked hard post-BK to get into the financial condition to be able to extract big discounts from the vendors.

I doubt they're going to go on a buying splurge just to get new aircraft when they've shown they are comfortable operating aging aircraft.

I think it's more likely they go very conservative and run out their current fleet till they get their finances in good shape again, however long that takes.


I do believe your scenario is more likely than mine, I was just speculating on a possible life line or exit strategy for the A330NEO. The white tails are going to start to pile up pretty fast at the current rate, and unlike all the other lines at both Airbus and Boeing, I don't believe there be takers for any of the A330NEO inventory except at a steep cash loss for Airbus. Airbus needs to reduce the rate to something like 6 a year or pull the plug very soon.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:42 pm

Jetport wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Jetport wrote:
If Delta's finances are healthy enough by next year, I wonder if they will take the last X number of A330NEO's off the line and remaining white tails at an incredible price. Other than their A350's, Delta appears to have gotten the best pricing ever on all of their recent orders (A330NEO, end of line A321CEO and A220). The end of the A330 production may allow them to get additional aircraft even cheaper than the ones already ordered and delivered, which was apparently already the best price anyone received on the A330NEO according to all available information.

To Summarize for Delta:
• A320CEO end of line – best price ever
• A220 – best price ever
• A330NEO – best price ever
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

And yet in another thread we read DL is losing $15M/day and is only running four A330s right now.

That $15M/day has to be coming from somewhere, be it savings or loans or equity, and will need to be replaced once income turns positive again.

DL worked hard post-BK to get into the financial condition to be able to extract big discounts from the vendors.

I doubt they're going to go on a buying splurge just to get new aircraft when they've shown they are comfortable operating aging aircraft.

I think it's more likely they go very conservative and run out their current fleet till they get their finances in good shape again, however long that takes.


I do believe your scenario is more likely than mine, I was just speculating on a possible life line or exit strategy for the A330NEO. The white tails are going to start to pile up pretty fast at the current rate, and unlike all the other lines at both Airbus and Boeing, I don't believe there be takers for any of the A330NEO inventory except at a steep cash loss for Airbus. Airbus needs to reduce the rate to something like 6 a year or pull the plug very soon.

Unfortunately, I concur with you. Either way, Airbus and RR lose money.

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CFBFrame
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:36 pm

Airbus rode the wave on the A330 program well past the time to have let it have a most excellent death. Now COVID might be forcing their hand for another widebody program? Deep discount sales are not the way to ensure your suppliers are viable long term, after you forced them to support a dead end limited unit strategy. RR could have been in a better position if they could have been able to be more focused on the A350, but Airbus wanted to force Boeing's hand for low ball deals with the 787. Now, white tails, deep discounts for programs Boeing has no interest in responding to the RFP, is this defined as the winning widebody strategy? Without the A320 family, and the help of the A220 where do they go?
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:56 pm

Are there A330neo opportunities in China?

The Chinese economy is powering ahead of most of the world, and with Airbus has set up a finishing centre in Tianjin. Chinese airlines have large 330ceo fleets to which a few neos would fit seamlessly if expansion is on the cards post-covid.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:28 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Are there A330neo opportunities in China?

The Chinese economy is powering ahead of most of the world, and with Airbus has set up a finishing centre in Tianjin. Chinese airlines have large 330ceo fleets to which a few neos would fit seamlessly if expansion is on the cards post-covid.

The issue is C919 certification later this year and C929 development. With the new Daxing airport, there is no reason not to increase frequency with the C919.

I would expect the Chinese to order A350s.

I'm personally suspicious of Chinese airline yield, but that is my own opinion. I wonder how an export economy works when the customers are bankrupt.

Lightsaber
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Capricorn
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:04 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Are there A330neo opportunities in China?

The Chinese economy is powering ahead of most of the world, and with Airbus has set up a finishing centre in Tianjin. Chinese airlines have large 330ceo fleets to which a few neos would fit seamlessly if expansion is on the cards post-covid.


What always gets forgotten when suggesting China as a potential customer to save the day is the fact that China is not only a country with many large airlines, but also a major player in leasing aircraft globally. Especially the likes of Companies like BOC Aviation and ICBC Leasing. They are currently facing the same problem as their non-Chinese peer, mass return of ACs from global customers. But unlike their foreign counterparts, as state owned enterprises they can call their buddies in the government give them a "get out of jail free card". If recovery remains sluggish, I would not be surprised if these companies place some of their assets at Chinese sate owned airlines. Therefore, I question the future ability of Chine to take additional planes beyond what they have already ordered.

And as lightsaber notes, there is the Chinese domestic aviation industry that the government is focusing on.

Source for Chinese AC lessors.
https://www.flightglobal.com/analysis/a ... 81.article
 
vfw614
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:01 am

Jetport wrote:
• A330NEO end of line


Am I missing something here - end of line A330NEO?
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:15 am

vfw614 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
• A330NEO end of line


Am I missing something here - end of line A330NEO?


Nope. I think you hit the underlying purpose behind the thread right on the nose :thumbsup:

Rgds
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:05 pm

Are there any A330ceo white tails left?
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:59 pm

astuteman wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
• A330NEO end of line


Am I missing something here - end of line A330NEO?


Nope. I think you hit the underlying purpose behind the thread right on the nose :thumbsup:

Rgds


Also, what are the white tails referenced? (Well which airlines?)
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:18 pm

A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.
A330-941 MSN 1795 and 1813 both prototypes haven’t been assigned to customers yet so these could end up being white tails. Rwandair has stated they aren’t taking MSN’s 1844 and 1861 both A330-941’s.

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 all A330-941’s have been built for AirAsiaX these could end up being white tails depending on what happens at the Airline.

MSN 1967 A330-941 is the 251T prototype which at present hasn’t been assigned to an airline.

I’m sure some other members may have more information, or correction’s.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:11 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Are there any A330ceo white tails left?

There are about 5-6 2018 build A333s available. Hong Kong Air NTUs that were finally cancelled at the end of last year.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:01 pm

Jetport wrote:
• A330NEO end of line – even better than their previous best price ever?

Jetport wrote:
The white tails are going to start to pile up pretty fast at the current rate, and unlike all the other lines at both Airbus and Boeing, I don't believe there be takers for any of the A330NEO inventory except at a steep cash loss for Airbus.

In connection with this, while KU is believed to still be taking their whole complement of 8 x A338s, are the major parts for the rest of the frames already on their way to the assembly line and that the balance of their A338 order won't likely be deferred :?:
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:14 am

A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.
A330-941 MSN 1795 and 1813 both prototypes haven’t been assigned to customers yet so these could end up being white tails. Rwandair has stated they aren’t taking MSN’s 1844 and 1861 both A330-941’s.

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 all A330-941’s have been built for AirAsiaX these could end up being white tails depending on what happens at the Airline.

MSN 1967 A330-941 is the 251T prototype which at present hasn’t been assigned to an airline.

I’m sure some other members may have more information, or correction’s.

Thank you for the summary. Airbus needs to find a set of replacement customers to build up production.

Serious question, does all the 2021 and 2022 production have a viable customer assigned to each tail? Typical aircraft production requires 18+ months assigned with enough firm orders to fill 42 months of production to achieve best vendor pricing.


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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:18 am

A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.
A330-941 MSN 1795 and 1813 both prototypes haven’t been assigned to customers yet so these could end up being white tails. Rwandair has stated they aren’t taking MSN’s 1844 and 1861 both A330-941’s.

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 all A330-941’s have been built for AirAsiaX these could end up being white tails depending on what happens at the Airline.

MSN 1967 A330-941 is the 251T prototype which at present hasn’t been assigned to an airline.

I’m sure some other members may have more information, or correction’s.


Add for AirAsiaX MSN 1973 painted all white no engines and MSN 1976 all white but Air Asia tail no engines
 
A320B737NGCapt
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:41 pm

oldJoe wrote:
A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.
A330-941 MSN 1795 and 1813 both prototypes haven’t been assigned to customers yet so these could end up being white tails. Rwandair has stated they aren’t taking MSN’s 1844 and 1861 both A330-941’s.

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 all A330-941’s have been built for AirAsiaX these could end up being white tails depending on what happens at the Airline.

MSN 1967 A330-941 is the 251T prototype which at present hasn’t been assigned to an airline.

I’m sure some other members may have more information, or correction’s.


Add for AirAsiaX MSN 1973 painted all white no engines and MSN 1976 all white but Air Asia tail no engines


Thanks for the additions.
 
A320B737NGCapt
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.
A330-941 MSN 1795 and 1813 both prototypes haven’t been assigned to customers yet so these could end up being white tails. Rwandair has stated they aren’t taking MSN’s 1844 and 1861 both A330-941’s.

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 all A330-941’s have been built for AirAsiaX these could end up being white tails depending on what happens at the Airline.

MSN 1967 A330-941 is the 251T prototype which at present hasn’t been assigned to an airline.

I’m sure some other members may have more information, or correction’s.

Thank you for the summary. Airbus needs to find a set of replacement customers to build up production.

Serious question, does all the 2021 and 2022 production have a viable customer assigned to each tail? Typical aircraft production requires 18+ months assigned with enough firm orders to fill 42 months of production to achieve best vendor pricing.


Lightsaber


Anytime Lightsaber, and thank you for all the information you provide to the various threads.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:03 pm

A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.


Latest news is Air Greenland is getting a new one, not the former prototype.
 
xwb777
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:31 pm

I came across a tweet on Twitter mentioning that a Saudi career will be announcing an order for the A330NEO. If that’s true, it would be either Saudia or Fly Nas.
 
A320B737NGCapt
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:40 am

VSMUT wrote:
A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.


Latest news is Air Greenland is getting a new one, not the former prototype.


That’s good, hopefully MSN 1888 will find a home as a VIP aircraft.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 07, 2021 5:07 pm

A320B737NGCapt wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.


Latest news is Air Greenland is getting a new one, not the former prototype.


That’s good, hopefully MSN 1888 will find a home as a VIP aircraft.

It concerns me how many commercial aircraft are looking for a home as VIP aircraft. For example all the A220-100 not taken up.
I would be shocked if 777x prototypes weren't offered too.
Same with a few used aircraft (I would be shocked if some weren't converted).
But on the flip side, the newest dedicated VIP aircraft have a lot of merit. By this I mean the Global 7500/6500/5500, the G700/G600/G500, and the Falcon 6X will certainly be attractive, more flexible, cheaper to maintain (designed for low utilization business jet duty), and generally faster. I can see a few A330NEO as VIP, but not many.

It is unfortunately an interesting market.
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VSMUT
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:22 pm

lightsaber wrote:
A320B737NGCapt wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Latest news is Air Greenland is getting a new one, not the former prototype.


That’s good, hopefully MSN 1888 will find a home as a VIP aircraft.

It concerns me how many commercial aircraft are looking for a home as VIP aircraft. For example all the A220-100 not taken up.
I would be shocked if 777x prototypes weren't offered too.
Same with a few used aircraft (I would be shocked if some weren't converted).
But on the flip side, the newest dedicated VIP aircraft have a lot of merit. By this I mean the Global 7500/6500/5500, the G700/G600/G500, and the Falcon 6X will certainly be attractive, more flexible, cheaper to maintain (designed for low utilization business jet duty), and generally faster. I can see a few A330NEO as VIP, but not many.

It is unfortunately an interesting market.
Lightsaber


What is the current tally for big widebody business jets? How many and of what type are out there? Lets say anything including and bigger than the 767.

There are 4 A330neo prototypes. Airbus usually hangs on to a prototype or two for internal use and demonstrations. That leaves them 2 to be peddled off somewhere. Thats somewhat better than the A350 program which had 8 prototypes, 3 of which have been sold and one is listed as preserved.
 
Speedy752
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:23 pm

oldJoe wrote:
A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.
A330-941 MSN 1795 and 1813 both prototypes haven’t been assigned to customers yet so these could end up being white tails. Rwandair has stated they aren’t taking MSN’s 1844 and 1861 both A330-941’s.

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 all A330-941’s have been built for AirAsiaX these could end up being white tails depending on what happens at the Airline.

MSN 1967 A330-941 is the 251T prototype which at present hasn’t been assigned to an airline.

I’m sure some other members may have more information, or correction’s.


Add for AirAsiaX MSN 1973 painted all white no engines and MSN 1976 all white but Air Asia tail no engines


Maybe it’s my own speculation, but aren’t the AAX birds being repurposed into starlux ones?
 
oldJoe
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:32 pm

Speedy752 wrote:
oldJoe wrote:
A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.
A330-941 MSN 1795 and 1813 both prototypes haven’t been assigned to customers yet so these could end up being white tails. Rwandair has stated they aren’t taking MSN’s 1844 and 1861 both A330-941’s.

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 all A330-941’s have been built for AirAsiaX these could end up being white tails depending on what happens at the Airline.

MSN 1967 A330-941 is the 251T prototype which at present hasn’t been assigned to an airline.

I’m sure some other members may have more information, or correction’s.


Add for AirAsiaX MSN 1973 painted all white no engines and MSN 1976 all white but Air Asia tail no engines


Maybe it’s my own speculation, but aren’t the AAX birds being repurposed into starlux ones?


Maybe but the first one should be MSN 1981 and was XL Airways ntu. Since all for Starlux are leased time will tell from where the other seven are coming from
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:38 pm

Aside from shaking down DL to take a few frames, the remainder of lease frames for Starlux and the line air Greenland frame who else is taking or able to take frames? Who would Airbus even target for more sales? This is sounding a lot more like the a380 order book in 2018
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:45 pm

Speedy752 wrote:
Aside from shaking down DL to take a few frames, the remainder of lease frames for Starlux and the line air Greenland frame who else is taking or able to take frames? Who would Airbus even target for more sales? This is sounding a lot more like the a380 order book in 2018

DL is deferring:

MIflyer12 wrote:
330neo, what had been 11 due 2021 is now 3, 8 due 2022 remains 8, what had been 7 for later than 2022 is now 18

Ref: viewtopic.php?p=22648807#p22648543
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:53 pm

Speedy752 wrote:
Aside from shaking down DL to take a few frames, the remainder of lease frames for Starlux and the line air Greenland frame who else is taking or able to take frames? Who would Airbus even target for more sales? This is sounding a lot more like the a380 order book in 2018


While it's not a great order book for the A330neo, the question Airbus has to answer is fundamentally different from the one they had with the A380. In the case of the A380 the aircraft was simply too large for most airlines. It was clear that apart from EK, the airplane was not wanted by anyone else going forward.

In the case of the A330neo they have very different questions. They center around the cost of limping along at low production for another half decade while waiting for the bulk of the A330ceo replacement cycle, and whether the potential sales there can justify the shorter term expenses. They also need to really think about what airlines are saying to them in regards to the A330neo versus 787 and whether they will be able to capture a significant portion of that replacement market. Another consideration is whether keeping 787 pricing honest is worth the expense of keeping the A330 line open. Boeing needs a lot of cash for NMA and 737MAX replacement down the road and keeping 787 pricing in check might help Airbus slow those programs down.
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Speedy752
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:17 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
Aside from shaking down DL to take a few frames, the remainder of lease frames for Starlux and the line air Greenland frame who else is taking or able to take frames? Who would Airbus even target for more sales? This is sounding a lot more like the a380 order book in 2018


While it's not a great order book for the A330neo, the question Airbus has to answer is fundamentally different from the one they had with the A380. In the case of the A380 the aircraft was simply too large for most airlines. It was clear that apart from EK, the airplane was not wanted by anyone else going forward.

In the case of the A330neo they have very different questions. They center around the cost of limping along at low production for another half decade while waiting for the bulk of the A330ceo replacement cycle, and whether the potential sales there can justify the shorter term expenses. They also need to really think about what airlines are saying to them in regards to the A330neo versus 787 and whether they will be able to capture a significant portion of that replacement market. Another consideration is whether keeping 787 pricing honest is worth the expense of keeping the A330 line open. Boeing needs a lot of cash for NMA and 737MAX replacement down the road and keeping 787 pricing in check might help Airbus slow those programs down.


I’d agree there’s a difference in a dead market vs a slow selling plane in a hot market. Isn’t the “pricing pressure” just ultimately hurting the a350? While it doesn’t directly compete with the 787, they are somewhat interchangeable for most operators so if Boeing overnight upped the price of 787s, airlines would instead buy a350s. Likewise without a “cheap” A330neo an a350 wouldn’t have to justify that price differential. I know it’s an AB argument, I just don’t think it really helps them in any way. They seem to be giving away A330neos as it is, as all programs feel the squeeze there will be less profit across the board with the rate drops. I would think it wiser to convert those to a350s and bump the rate to make more money on all the planes produced that period.

I also legitimately wonder which airlines would replace a ceo with neo in say 2026. Most large ceo operators already have 787 and/or a350s on the property or on order, it would make more sense to add to those orders vs keep another type. I guess that drives my a380 comparison, I don’t see any airlines who haven’t already expressed interest or ordered the type interested in it.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:30 pm

Revelation wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
Aside from shaking down DL to take a few frames, the remainder of lease frames for Starlux and the line air Greenland frame who else is taking or able to take frames? Who would Airbus even target for more sales? This is sounding a lot more like the a380 order book in 2018

DL is deferring:

MIflyer12 wrote:
330neo, what had been 11 due 2021 is now 3, 8 due 2022 remains 8, what had been 7 for later than 2022 is now 18

Ref: viewtopic.php?p=22648807#p22648543

Thank you. Those are immense deferalls for DL. Is there a breakdown of 2021 and 2022 deliveries?

That implies 2020 deliveries happen late.

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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:46 am

Alias1024 wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
Aside from shaking down DL to take a few frames, the remainder of lease frames for Starlux and the line air Greenland frame who else is taking or able to take frames? Who would Airbus even target for more sales? This is sounding a lot more like the a380 order book in 2018


While it's not a great order book for the A330neo, the question Airbus has to answer is fundamentally different from the one they had with the A380. In the case of the A380 the aircraft was simply too large for most airlines. It was clear that apart from EK, the airplane was not wanted by anyone else going forward.

In the case of the A330neo they have very different questions. They center around the cost of limping along at low production for another half decade while waiting for the bulk of the A330ceo replacement cycle, and whether the potential sales there can justify the shorter term expenses. They also need to really think about what airlines are saying to them in regards to the A330neo versus 787 and whether they will be able to capture a significant portion of that replacement market. Another consideration is whether keeping 787 pricing honest is worth the expense of keeping the A330 line open. Boeing needs a lot of cash for NMA and 737MAX replacement down the road and keeping 787 pricing in check might help Airbus slow those programs down.


Losing money to keep your competitor from making money, or as you suggest to slow down their new programs is almost always a very bad strategy. Based on how easily and cheaply Boeing has been able to access capital recently, any Airbus strategy to reduce Boeings 787 profits by selling cheap A330NEO's would be doomed to failure and likely hurt Airbus as much or more than Boeing. Strategic loss making pricing is even dumber in a duopoly where both companies should be very profitable over the long term as long as they don't do stupid things like sell below their incremental cost of production.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:19 am

Is the availability of relatively young A330(ceo) in the market an issue?
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:42 am

VV wrote:
Is the availability of relatively young A330(ceo) in the market an issue?

That is probably the larger factor. Airbus basically killed the mid to long term chances for A330neo even before it was conceived by churning out A330ceos at high rates to take advantage of the 787 delays.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:47 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:
Is the availability of relatively young A330(ceo) in the market an issue?

That is probably the larger factor. Airbus basically killed the mid to long term chances for A330neo even before it was conceived by churning out A330ceos at high rates to take advantage of the 787 delays.


If it is the case then what is the best remedy to improve the competitiveness of the A330 relative to the A330(ceo)?

Is lowering A330neo's pricing even further a solution?

It is not reasonable to retire so many young A330(ceo) from in-service life.

By the way there are also young second hand 787 that are coming into the market.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:12 am

VV wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:
Is the availability of relatively young A330(ceo) in the market an issue?

That is probably the larger factor. Airbus basically killed the mid to long term chances for A330neo even before it was conceived by churning out A330ceos at high rates to take advantage of the 787 delays.


If it is the case then what is the best remedy to improve the competitiveness of the A330 relative to the A330(ceo)?

Is lowering A330neo's pricing even further a solution?

It is not reasonable to retire so many young A330(ceo) from in-service life.

By the way there are also young second hand 787 that are coming into the market.

No good way out for the A330neo, lowering the price will worsen the loss on each frame.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:44 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
...

No good way out for the A330neo, lowering the price will worsen the loss on each frame.


I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:51 am

VV wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
...

No good way out for the A330neo, lowering the price will worsen the loss on each frame.


I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:01 am

oldJoe wrote:
A320B737NGCapt wrote:
A330-841 MSN 1888 Prototype doesn’t have a customer assigned to it yet, but this could end up at Air Greenland.
A330-941 MSN 1795 and 1813 both prototypes haven’t been assigned to customers yet so these could end up being white tails. Rwandair has stated they aren’t taking MSN’s 1844 and 1861 both A330-941’s.

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 all A330-941’s have been built for AirAsiaX these could end up being white tails depending on what happens at the Airline.

MSN 1967 A330-941 is the 251T prototype which at present hasn’t been assigned to an airline.

I’m sure some other members may have more information, or correction’s.


Add for AirAsiaX MSN 1973 painted all white no engines and MSN 1976 all white but Air Asia tail no engines


MSN 1970,1973,1976 are going to Cebu

MSN’s 1966, 1970, 1971, 1972 may go to Condor and both A330-941 for Rwandair may go to Air Belgium..
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:23 am

Insomuch as Airbus found willing buyers for the A330s it "churned out to take advantage of 787 delays" they could hardly be blamed for doing so. If anything it was the subsequent (presumed) 787 commercial aggression applied to raise production rates to 14 pm in an attempt to see off the A330 that forced A330 production rates downwards.

As for the A330neo, the overdependence on AXM is as clear as it is debatable (but what if Tony had, as hinted at one stage, opted for XX 787s instead of extra NEOs?). There was an implicit expectation linked to the opening of the A330 cabin completion centre in Tianjin that Chinese carriers would keep buying A330s and that these would be NEOs. The failure of his to materialise and the HNA debacle explain why the FAL rate has declined so much. Finally, no-one foresaw COVID.

The future? Convincing/persuading A320 Family operators in search of adding or replacing a small widebody fleet that the NEO offers better economic synergy? I don't believe there will be an A330NF, just more and more CEO P2F conversions.

With tools/fixtures/buildings well amortised and production costs right down the learning curve, I doubt if the A330 is sold at a loss. Terminating a programme incurs costs, automatically depreciates existing aircraft and may trigger commercial penalties/rights as a consequence. I suspect the A330 line will continue for some years, but at a "modest" rate.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:51 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
...

No good way out for the A330neo, lowering the price will worsen the loss on each frame.


I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.


I think that you are making a great point. Originally if the complete backlog of the A330neo would have eventually been delivered, then Airbus would break even on the program (economies of scale and so on). But with so many shaky order in the backlog, especially the AAX one and the lessors, the program most likely is deep in the red. While Airbus was most likely not selling them at a loss, they probably are delivering them at a loss. With AAX's future standing on thin ice, I don't see a way out for the A330neo, as there is no cargo version to support the line, tankers being a niche market and no new order in sight.

I still think that Airbus would need a second smaller WB more urgently than Boeing (The Airbus version of the NMA), as IMO there is a market a little below the 788/338 that is not yet effectively served, something that Boeing understood correctly.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:39 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
...

No good way out for the A330neo, lowering the price will worsen the loss on each frame.


I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.


I did not know it was strongly suggested by Tony Fernandez from Air Asia.
Was it part of that SFO investigation?
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:42 am

VV wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
VV wrote:

I do not think Airbus is selling them at loss. It is not reasonable to do so.

It is not reasonable to do so but they are most likely doing it. I can't see them producing at such low rates profitably. Which is why I say that there is no easy way out, maybe except stopping the program. That makes the most sense considering that this plane was an idea egged on by Tony from Air Asia.


I did not know it was strongly suggested by Tony Fernandez from Air Asia.
Was it part of that SFO investigation?


Not content with the baseline A330, the carrier pushed Airbus hard for a re-engined Neo variant. Finally, at the Farnborough air show in 2014, Airbus launched the A330neo family. AirAsia X promptly signed a memorandum of understanding for 50 examples.

Fernandes called the A330neo “a killer aircraft.” His only complaint? That he was restricted to Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engines.


https://www.flightglobal.com/x-doesnt-mark-the-spot-for-a330neo/139817.article

Whether or not this was related to the Airbus corruption trials is another issue, some articles seem to suggest this.

https://paxex.aero/airbus-bribery-airasia-tony-fernandes/

If this was true, then it appears to be a foolish decision - as Airbus is basically using its own money to satisfy Executives at their top customer while helping them plane with lacklustre sales. Essentially mutual massaging on each other backs. This was done seemingly without much market research, and people wonder why Boeing is slow on the NMA, it is to avoid pitfalls like this.
Last edited by jeffrey0032j on Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:49 am

JogiXFW wrote:
MSN 1970,1973,1976 are going to Cebu


Cebu frames were to get enhanced exit doors to enable accommodation of higher pax numbers (460 pax). Are these now standard fit, or retrofittable to white tails?

https://www.flightglobal.com/programmes ... 71.article
 
VV
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Re: Airbus A330neo Sales Campaigns and Prospects Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:51 am

Wildlander wrote:
...
I suspect the A330 line will continue for some years, but at a "modest" rate.



Doesn't it mean even higher unit production cost?

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