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petertenthije
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:49 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Can the US really impose any fines on Airbus though if Airbus started delivering new planes anyway? I would think it would be very difficult for the US to actually be awarded any damages. I really don't think Airbus has anything to lose.

Even if the US can't issue fines outright, they can impose tariffs which could make airbus non-competitive on the US market.
Kind a like what the US did to Bombardier.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:26 pm

petertenthije wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Can the US really impose any fines on Airbus though if Airbus started delivering new planes anyway? I would think it would be very difficult for the US to actually be awarded any damages. I really don't think Airbus has anything to lose.

Even if the US can't issue fines outright, they can impose tariffs which could make airbus non-competitive on the US market.
Kind a like what the US did to Bombardier.


That's a fair point I hadn't thought of. But I'm not sure it would make much difference to the Airbus operators like Nk,B6,G4,DL. Even with tarrifs it would likely still be cheaper than adding another fleet type and the costs associated with it.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:01 pm

mxaxai wrote:
scbriml wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
I'm sure IR and Airbus would love a deal for a bunch of A330neo but I don't see much incentive for the US to allow that ...


Airbus and IR already have a firm order for A339s.

Which is blocked by the US sanctions.


Yes, but the deal is already in place. If the US government loosens the sanctions on Iran, Airbus can start delivering those planes.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Can the US really impose any fines on Airbus though if Airbus started delivering new planes anyway? I would think it would be very difficult for the US to actually be awarded any damages. I really don't think Airbus has anything to lose.


They could easily sanction Airbus and its employees, and possibly add more tariffs. Any American supplier to Airbus would also be targeted by the US government, if they knowingly supplied parts to Airbus that we’re destined to be delivered to Iran. No American supplier to Airbus would want to face the significant consequences.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:57 am

I'd like the average Iranian family to feel secure when they travel. Whether or not those planes come from a distressed A330 program or excess MAX/787 white-tail inventory is unimportant. Sure, Iranians purchases from either of those pools would benefit Airbus/Boeing financially. But, I caution on altering policy purely to benefit commercial interest of a limited number of large corporations. However, altering policy to promote the safety and well being of an entire population is something that most could get behind, no?

I'm not trying to be political, just huminitarian. I hope on that basis the contracts/purchase negotiations are restored. Both of the major manufacturers are in a position to provide short range (max) and long range (330/787) aircraft rather quickly to remedy the shortage of modern aircraft at Iranian Carriers. Both manufacturers no doubt can provide a fair number of common spare components as part of the orders to ensure the new fleets could remain mostly airborne, in behalf of the citizenry, even if policy/political will changes again.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold. It might be best to acquire planes that are available now, rather than those still in development (bird in the hand better than two in the bush).... So A330neos and 787 whitetails might be better than 777x. MAX whitetails might be better than constrained A320s.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:43 am

Please remember to provide a link to a source when stating facts. Thanks.
 
rutankrd
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:56 am

petertenthije wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Can the US really impose any fines on Airbus though if Airbus started delivering new planes anyway? I would think it would be very difficult for the US to actually be awarded any damages. I really don't think Airbus has anything to lose.

Even if the US can't issue fines outright, they can impose tariffs which could make airbus non-competitive on the US market.
Kind a like what the US did to Bombardier.


Again I reiterate the primary sanctions are the fiscal regulations since funds can’t be transferred legally commerce (aviation) can not be completed period stop

Reference

Secretary of State, identified the financial sector of the Iranian economy pursuant to section 1(a)(I) of Executive Order (E.O.) 13902, which authorizes Treasury to sanction any Iranian financial institution. Subsequently, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned eighteen major Iranian banks.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:52 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I'd like the average Iranian family to feel secure when they travel. Whether or not those planes come from a distressed A330 program or excess MAX/787 white-tail inventory is unimportant. Sure, Iranians purchases from either of those pools would benefit Airbus/Boeing financially. But, I caution on altering policy purely to benefit commercial interest of a limited number of large corporations. However, altering policy to promote the safety and well being of an entire population is something that most could get behind, no?

I'm not trying to be political, just huminitarian. I hope on that basis the contracts/purchase negotiations are restored. Both of the major manufacturers are in a position to provide short range (max) and long range (330/787) aircraft rather quickly to remedy the shortage of modern aircraft at Iranian Carriers. Both manufacturers no doubt can provide a fair number of common spare components as part of the orders to ensure the new fleets could remain mostly airborne, in behalf of the citizenry, even if policy/political will changes again.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold. It might be best to acquire planes that are available now, rather than those still in development (bird in the hand better than two in the bush).... So A330neos and 787 whitetails might be better than 777x. MAX whitetails might be better than constrained A320s.


I totally agree with this. Iran's commercial aviation industry is serviced by very old aircraft and the country has one of the world's worst safety records when it comes to aviation. I'm of the opinion that sanctions generally, don't work, and typically harm the everyday person, not the governments they are intended for. Just look at Cuba. Almost 60 years of US sanctions has done nothing to turn Cuba into a democracy. While I don't want to get too political, the cause of the US-Iran problem will illustrate plenty of contributions from both sides dating back to the 1950s. The policies and actions of the past 4 years likely haven't helped but the Nuclear deal struck several years ago, that enabled Iran to purchase new aircraft on the open market for the first time, was a better deal and access to better planes, more travel, and an opening up of Iran's economy would likely have a better chance of transforming the country than slapping it with sanctions that ultimately, won't work. It just doesn't seem fair that the average Iranian has to travel on a 1970s vintage plane when much of the rest of the world can do it on a relatively new Boeing or Airbus plane,
 
deltatrav
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:40 pm

Seems like could be a great win for Boeing - sell new AC to them and maybe even get them some used ones to hold them over (deltas 777s or 767s, Thai, etc. I know with royal jordanian when 787 was delayed Boeing refurbished their 342s with avod etc to hold them over
 
ILikeTrains
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:08 pm

In the case Iran Air can upgrade their fleet, what will the ME3 think or do?

I personally hope everything works out, Iran is a beautiful country with wonderful people.
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:10 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Airbus and IR already have a firm order for A339s.

Which is blocked by the US sanctions.


Can the US really impose any fines on Airbus though if Airbus started delivering new planes anyway? I would think it would be very difficult for the US to actually be awarded any damages. I really don't think Airbus has anything to lose.



It’s actually worse than Imposing fines on Airbus; The US government prevents the export of goods that are to be used in embargoed countries, and can further restrict the sale of these goods to entities who sell those goods to an unfriendly country. The US for instance can prevent Honeywell from selling a FMS to Airbus that will be used in an IRAN Air aircraft- and if Airbus tries to skirt that restriction the US could prevent the wholesale of Honeywell FMSs to EADS (throw GE engines, Rockwell Collins Navigation, WX radars, Goodyear tires, the random nuts and bolts).

https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publi ... liance-wit
 
2175301
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:29 pm

Thinking about this for the last day or so...

I think this is Iran sending a message to President Biden's administration that they would like to talk and see if they can make a deal... and Aircraft is a neutral subject to start talking about...

Then if that goes well the talks can be expanded to other areas... which Iran knows that they have to negotiate on.

Often its a lot easier to start talking about some relatively minor side issue and make progress there... than to start negotiating on the main areas of disagreement.

I actually hope it leads to fruitful negotiations and progress.

Have a great day,
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:04 pm

2175301 wrote:
Thinking about this for the last day or so...

I think this is Iran sending a message to President Biden's administration that they would like to talk and see if they can make a deal... and Aircraft is a neutral subject to start talking about...

Then if that goes well the talks can be expanded to other areas... which Iran knows that they have to negotiate on.

Often its a lot easier to start talking about some relatively minor side issue and make progress there... than to start negotiating on the main areas of disagreement.

I actually hope it leads to fruitful negotiations and progress.

Have a great day,


I think you have this the wrong way round. A potential Boeing order is just a sidebar to a much bigger picture.

First, America has to rejoin JCPOA. Then Iran has to agree to meet the conditions of JCPOA again. Once those two things have happened and IEAE inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities resume and once Iran is seen to be sticking to the agreement, then America should start easing sanctions. Once those sanctions start being eased, Iran may be in the position to consider placing an order for Boeing planes.
 
rutankrd
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:14 pm

rutankrd wrote:
scbriml wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Thinking about this for the last day or so...

I think this is Iran sending a message to President Biden's administration that they would like to talk and see if they can make a deal... and Aircraft is a neutral subject to start talking about...

Then if that goes well the talks can be expanded to other areas... which Iran knows that they have to negotiate on.

Often its a lot easier to start talking about some relatively minor side issue and make progress there... than to start negotiating on the main areas of disagreement.

I actually hope it leads to fruitful negotiations and progress.

Have a great day,


I think you have this the wrong way round. A potential Boeing order is just a sidebar to a much bigger picture.

First, America has to rejoin JCPOA. Then Iran has to agree to meet the conditions of JCPOA again. Once those two things have happened and IEAE inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities resume and once Iran is seen to be sticking to the agreement, then America should start easing sanctions. Once those sanctions start being eased, Iran may be in the position to consider placing an order for Boeing planes.


This is correct and like said it may take 18 month plus to get to a point even close considering trading and thats if Biden starts a diplomatic process behind the scenes this year
 
2175301
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:44 am

scbriml wrote:
First, America has to rejoin JCPOA. Then Iran has to agree to meet the conditions of JCPOA again. Once those two things have happened and IEAE inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities resume and once Iran is seen to be sticking to the agreement, then America should start easing sanctions. Once those sanctions start being eased, Iran may be in the position to consider placing an order for Boeing planes.


I'm not sure there is a method in the JCPOA for America to rejoin; and I think your concept is along the line of wishful thinking.

The reality is the USA formally withdrew from the JCPOA, and no longer has any say in it. Former President Trump wanted for America to go it alone.

Now, President Biden's Administration might be in a position to ask Iran to come into compliance with the JCPOA as part of a condition for easing the restrictions that the USA unilaterally applied under President Trump; and it might be something less.

Keep in mind that by all reports Iran was well in compliance with the JCPOA when President Trump withdrew and imposed much stricter sanctions. Why should Iran believe that compliance with the JCPOA is to their benefit after that.

At least the aircraft gives a starting point for a discussion... I am quite sure that Iran knows that at least parts of compliance with the JCPOA will likely be required. But, at this point I belive that USA is likely forever no longer a part of it. I would like to point out - that Iran would likely have to approve along with all other parties if there is even a legal way for the USA to be a legal part of the JCPOA.

The real question for the USA... is how to move forward working outside of the JCPOA, as the USA is outside of it already.

Have a great day,
 
Hassan27
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:17 am

I’d be surprised if Iran Air didn’t try to swap all of it’s 777 orders for 787s. At the time of the order, waiting times for the 777 were much shorter than that of the 787 and no doubt played a role in the original decision. Times have changed.
 
deltatrav
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:31 pm

ILikeTrains wrote:
In the case Iran Air can upgrade their fleet, what will the ME3 think or do?

I personally hope everything works out, Iran is a beautiful country with wonderful people.



I don’t think Iran’s carriers can compete. Won’t impact ME3 except to take *some* Iran bound traffic from them
 
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Aesma
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sun Feb 07, 2021 7:54 pm

scbriml wrote:
I think you have this the wrong way round. A potential Boeing order is just a sidebar to a much bigger picture.

First, America has to rejoin JCPOA. Then Iran has to agree to meet the conditions of JCPOA again. Once those two things have happened and IEAE inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities resume and once Iran is seen to be sticking to the agreement, then America should start easing sanctions. Once those sanctions start being eased, Iran may be in the position to consider placing an order for Boeing planes.


Joining the JCPOA with a US Senate vote, this time.
 
2175301
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sun Feb 07, 2021 9:13 pm

Aesma wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I think you have this the wrong way round. A potential Boeing order is just a sidebar to a much bigger picture.

First, America has to rejoin JCPOA. Then Iran has to agree to meet the conditions of JCPOA again. Once those two things have happened and IEAE inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities resume and once Iran is seen to be sticking to the agreement, then America should start easing sanctions. Once those sanctions start being eased, Iran may be in the position to consider placing an order for Boeing planes.


Joining the JCPOA with a US Senate vote, this time.



I've done a bit more reading: It appears that the JCPOA does not contain any provision to allow a Country not in it to join it. All participant countries would have to agree to a change allowing other countries to join the agreement; and I don't see that happen.

The UN has already rejected the USA 2020 attempt to invoke parts of the JCPOA because the USA had withdrew from the JCPOA and no longer had any input on its implementation or terms.

Thus, Iran is free to negotiate with the USA outside of the JCPOA terms and conditions for reduction of the US sanctions and other trade issues.

Have a great day,
 
fcogafa
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:47 pm

Biden has implied today that he is in no hurry to ease the sanctions

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55972619
 
2175301
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:24 am

fcogafa wrote:
Biden has implied today that he is in no hurry to ease the sanctions

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55972619


He's said that before; and I believe it.

However, the talks have to start somewhere sometime... and discussion of the suspended Boeing order is likely as good as place as any.

The talks will of course involve other issues (nuclear program, etc). However, you first need something to talk about... That's how most diplomacy works. You start talking about something not directly tied to the main issue... and expand from there.

Have a great day,
 
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Aesma
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:50 am

2175301 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I think you have this the wrong way round. A potential Boeing order is just a sidebar to a much bigger picture.

First, America has to rejoin JCPOA. Then Iran has to agree to meet the conditions of JCPOA again. Once those two things have happened and IEAE inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities resume and once Iran is seen to be sticking to the agreement, then America should start easing sanctions. Once those sanctions start being eased, Iran may be in the position to consider placing an order for Boeing planes.


Joining the JCPOA with a US Senate vote, this time.



I've done a bit more reading: It appears that the JCPOA does not contain any provision to allow a Country not in it to join it. All participant countries would have to agree to a change allowing other countries to join the agreement; and I don't see that happen.

The UN has already rejected the USA 2020 attempt to invoke parts of the JCPOA because the USA had withdrew from the JCPOA and no longer had any input on its implementation or terms.

Thus, Iran is free to negotiate with the USA outside of the JCPOA terms and conditions for reduction of the US sanctions and other trade issues.

Have a great day,


The problem is that Iran is still in the JCPOA, though. I don't mean Iran can't discuss and make a deal with the US, but I don't really see how it would work : "apply the rules from that other agreement we're not a part of, and we will give you this", doesn't seem really possible. Especially since there needs to be checks, enforcements mechanisms, etc.

That the US couldn't invoke a deal it walked out of is perfectly normal, and the opposite would have been very bad for international law, but if the US wants back in, and Iran is OK with it, then I don't see the others opposing it.
 
Sokes
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:35 am

2175301 wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Biden has implied today that he is in no hurry to ease the sanctions

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55972619


He's said that before; and I believe it.

However, the talks have to start somewhere sometime... and discussion of the suspended Boeing order is likely as good as place as any.

Iran is possibly the biggest ideological issue one can have. I expected that the Democrats would return to the deal. But now it looks like the US just wanted to have a look how capable Iran really is. A bit like with Iraq showing the UN their chemical weapons.
I don't think there is a point for moderate Iranians trying to speak with the US.
Anyway Chinese planes may do just fine for them. They don't have high range requirements. That much longer they can wait.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:59 pm

2175301 wrote:
However, the talks have to start somewhere sometime... and discussion of the suspended Boeing order is likely as good as place as any.

The talks will of course involve other issues (nuclear program, etc). However, you first need something to talk about... That's how most diplomacy works. You start talking about something not directly tied to the main issue... and expand from there.

Have a great day,


There will be no discussions about a possible Boeing order before sanctions are lifted. It's currently illegal for Boeing to enter any discussions with Iran or an agent representing them. Not happening.
 
2175301
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:18 pm

scbriml wrote:
2175301 wrote:
However, the talks have to start somewhere sometime... and discussion of the suspended Boeing order is likely as good as place as any.

The talks will of course involve other issues (nuclear program, etc). However, you first need something to talk about... That's how most diplomacy works. You start talking about something not directly tied to the main issue... and expand from there.

Have a great day,


There will be no discussions about a possible Boeing order before sanctions are lifted. It's currently illegal for Boeing to enter any discussions with Iran or an agent representing them. Not happening.


I am quite sure that Boeing will have provided a copy of the letter to the US State Department.

The Iran and US diplomats will talk a lot... about a lot of things (including likely the suspended Boeing Order)... long before sanctions are reduced or lifted.

As I said earlier in this thread. This is a relatively neutral issue that allows the diplomats to start to talk; and using such relatively neutral issues is how a lot of very real diplomacy starts in the world.

Have a great day,
 
superjeff
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:30 pm

Bottom line is that Iran needs this more than the U.S. Stop making this a political thread.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:39 pm

While this thread touches politics, off topic political flamebait is not tolerated.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:10 am

scbriml wrote:
There will be no discussions about a possible Boeing order before sanctions are lifted. It's currently illegal for Boeing to enter any discussions with Iran or an agent representing them. Not happening.


Why not? Are discussions prohibited by relevant executive orders? Sales of goods and services, yes.
 
744SPX
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:46 am

I don't see the issue here. New aircraft aren't going to help the regime, they will help the Iranian people.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:39 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
There will be no discussions about a possible Boeing order before sanctions are lifted. It's currently illegal for Boeing to enter any discussions with Iran or an agent representing them. Not happening.


Why not? Are discussions prohibited by relevant executive orders? Sales of goods and services, yes.


I believe the sanctions forbid it - no contact is allowed unless exempted by the government. There are quite a few exemptions, but they are predominantly in the fields of agriculture and medicine. As things stand today, the only notable aviation exemption is for Lufthansa Technical.
https://graphics.wsj.com/iran-sanctions/
 
aristoenigma
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:34 am

Imo the greater good is advanced from Iran having a modern transportation system that Boeing benefits from and as an aviation enthusiast I would love to see modern airplanes in Iran and I want to see those aircraft and parts come from the US before China and Russia get a toehold.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:51 am

Another reminder.. This is an aviation topic. Political posts will be removed. Take those comments to Non Av.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
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enzo011
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:11 am

The Iran deal has a better chance of success after talks are resurrected due to a new leader for the US, and also the monetary considerations. If Boeing was in a good financial position there would have been very little rush to get the talks restarted, but with all parties needing some good news the time is ripe to get the agreement back up and running again. There will be a lot of winners, both Airbus and Boeing, if this does happen so there will be political will behind getting it done.

Iran nuclear deal: US agrees to join talks brokered by EU

The US has agreed to take part in multilateral talks with Iran hosted by the EU, with the aim of negotiating a return by both countries to the 2015 nuclear deal that is close to falling apart in the wake of the Trump administration.

The state department spokesman, Ned Price, said the US would accept the invitation of the EU high representative for discussions with Iran and the five other countries that agreed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), by which Iran accepted strict constraints on its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief.

There was no immediate word from Tehran on whether it was ready to join the talks, which so far have no agreed start time or location. The US has made clear its delegation will be led by its special envoy, Rob Malley, who helped negotiate the JCPOA six years ago.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:58 am

How would the payments be arranged, if the sanctions are lifted? Would Iran have to come up with the money ("fresh money") to pay for the planes? Or is it expected that Iranian assets (including bank accounts in the US) would be "unfrozen" and deployed for these purchases?
 
777luver
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:51 pm

enzo011 wrote:
The Iran deal has a better chance of success after talks are resurrected due to a new leader for the US, and also the monetary considerations. If Boeing was in a good financial position there would have been very little rush to get the talks restarted, but with all parties needing some good news the time is ripe to get the agreement back up and running again. There will be a lot of winners, both Airbus and Boeing, if this does happen so there will be political will behind getting it done.

Iran nuclear deal: US agrees to join talks brokered by EU

The US has agreed to take part in multilateral talks with Iran hosted by the EU, with the aim of negotiating a return by both countries to the 2015 nuclear deal that is close to falling apart in the wake of the Trump administration.

The state department spokesman, Ned Price, said the US would accept the invitation of the EU high representative for discussions with Iran and the five other countries that agreed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), by which Iran accepted strict constraints on its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief.

There was no immediate word from Tehran on whether it was ready to join the talks, which so far have no agreed start time or location. The US has made clear its delegation will be led by its special envoy, Rob Malley, who helped negotiate the JCPOA six years ago.


Doesn't mean as much as someone might think. It just means that talks have a chance at being restored. Whether or not Biden even wants to lift sanctions is a whole other question and one that I don't think he would be willing to do, there will be pressure from other countries to keep sanctions.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:32 pm

777luver wrote:
Doesn't mean as much as someone might think. It just means that talks have a chance at being restored. Whether or not Biden even wants to lift sanctions is a whole other question and one that I don't think he would be willing to do, there will be pressure from other countries to keep sanctions.



It is more than what was on the table before. Seeing that the same person will be heading the talks for the US that negotiated the deal in the first place as well means it doesn't start from the start either. What other countries are there that have the clout to stop this deal if the US, EU and other signatories want this to happen?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:18 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
How would the payments be arranged, if the sanctions are lifted? Would Iran have to come up with the money ("fresh money") to pay for the planes? Or is it expected that Iranian assets (including bank accounts in the US) would be "unfrozen" and deployed for these purchases?


One would imagine that after their assets were released by Obama in return for signing up to JCPOA, Iran would have moved all their money out of America. If they didn't, then they're not as smart as I thought they were.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:15 pm

scbriml wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
How would the payments be arranged, if the sanctions are lifted? Would Iran have to come up with the money ("fresh money") to pay for the planes? Or is it expected that Iranian assets (including bank accounts in the US) would be "unfrozen" and deployed for these purchases?


One would imagine that after their assets were released by Obama in return for signing up to JCPOA, Iran would have moved all their money out of America. If they didn't, then they're not as smart as I thought they were.


AFAIR, it was WAY more intricate than that. Iranians could not just make a couple of mouse clicks, convert all the money into Swiss franks (or Chinese Yuan, or gold bars and guns, or whatever), and transfer them out. There was some sort of permissive mechanism -- on what and how much they could spend.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:29 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
How would the payments be arranged, if the sanctions are lifted? Would Iran have to come up with the money ("fresh money") to pay for the planes? Or is it expected that Iranian assets (including bank accounts in the US) would be "unfrozen" and deployed for these purchases?


One would imagine that after their assets were released by Obama in return for signing up to JCPOA, Iran would have moved all their money out of America. If they didn't, then they're not as smart as I thought they were.


AFAIR, it was WAY more intricate than that. Iranians could not just make a couple of mouse clicks, convert all the money into Swiss franks (or Chinese Yuan, or gold bars and guns, or whatever), and transfer them out. There was some sort of permissive mechanism -- on what and how much they could spend.


I don’t believe that’s the case, but more than happy to be shown otherwise.
https://www.factcheck.org/2019/03/obama ... n-in-cash/
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:58 pm

I think some of the unfrozen assets were literally flown out of Switzerland on an Iran government 737-200, there is a lovely video of it taking off from Geneva on YouTube somewhere.
 
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LH748
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:28 pm

As neither the US nor Iran have a real interest in normalizing their relations I can't imagine that we will see any development over the next 4 years unless we witness a revolution in Iran. The current administration will never let go of their nuclear plans and considering what they dream about it's probably for the better that the US keeps the economic pressure high.
 
777luver
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:23 am

LH748 wrote:
As neither the US nor Iran have a real interest in normalizing their relations I can't imagine that we will see any development over the next 4 years unless we witness a revolution in Iran. The current administration will never let go of their nuclear plans and considering what they dream about it's probably for the better that the US keeps the economic pressure high.


Bingo
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:27 am

LH748 wrote:
As neither the US nor Iran have a real interest in normalizing their relations I can't imagine that we will see any development over the next 4 years unless we witness a revolution in Iran. The current administration will never let go of their nuclear plans and considering what they dream about it's probably for the better that the US keeps the economic pressure high.


Really? Just yesterday it was reported that America has signaled it's willingness to talk with Iran...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-i ... 1613687193
U.S. and Iranian officials could hold nuclear discussions within coming weeks under a plan by the European Union to bring the two sides together for the first time since President Biden took office, according to U.S. officials and senior diplomats.

The move, potentially a first step toward reviving the 2015 international nuclear agreement, came after Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the deepening nuclear standoff with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany. Former President Donald Trump withdrew from the accord.
 
777luver
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:33 am

scbriml wrote:
LH748 wrote:
As neither the US nor Iran have a real interest in normalizing their relations I can't imagine that we will see any development over the next 4 years unless we witness a revolution in Iran. The current administration will never let go of their nuclear plans and considering what they dream about it's probably for the better that the US keeps the economic pressure high.


Really? Just yesterday it was reported that America has signaled it's willingness to talk with Iran...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-i ... 1613687193
U.S. and Iranian officials could hold nuclear discussions within coming weeks under a plan by the European Union to bring the two sides together for the first time since President Biden took office, according to U.S. officials and senior diplomats.

The move, potentially a first step toward reviving the 2015 international nuclear agreement, came after Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the deepening nuclear standoff with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany. Former President Donald Trump withdrew from the accord.


But neither side is willing to budge on the issues that would move them closer to an agreement
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:53 am

777luver wrote:
scbriml wrote:
LH748 wrote:
As neither the US nor Iran have a real interest in normalizing their relations I can't imagine that we will see any development over the next 4 years unless we witness a revolution in Iran. The current administration will never let go of their nuclear plans and considering what they dream about it's probably for the better that the US keeps the economic pressure high.


Really? Just yesterday it was reported that America has signaled it's willingness to talk with Iran...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-i ... 1613687193
U.S. and Iranian officials could hold nuclear discussions within coming weeks under a plan by the European Union to bring the two sides together for the first time since President Biden took office, according to U.S. officials and senior diplomats.

The move, potentially a first step toward reviving the 2015 international nuclear agreement, came after Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the deepening nuclear standoff with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany. Former President Donald Trump withdrew from the accord.


But neither side is willing to budge on the issues that would move them closer to an agreement


Saying you're willing to meet and discuss the issue is already progress compared to the situation on January 19th.
 
777luver
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:52 pm

scbriml wrote:
777luver wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Really? Just yesterday it was reported that America has signaled it's willingness to talk with Iran...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-i ... 1613687193


But neither side is willing to budge on the issues that would move them closer to an agreement


Saying you're willing to meet and discuss the issue is already progress compared to the situation on January 19th.


But Iran doesn't seem willing to meet.....
 
kaitak
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:29 pm

I don't want to get into the politics of it (says he, just about to do so!), but sufficeth to say, the time to move would be now. Iran could benefit hugely from a normalization of relations.

Both major manufacturers, probably Embraer as well, could benefit. An economically resurgent Iran could give both Boeing and Airbus a huge boost and I see it as being in everyone's interests to push them in that direction. There are risks and Iran will want assurances; I guess its biggest fear is that it expends a lot of effort and political capital (in a domestic context) and then, you could have a repeat of what happened in 2017 and they're back to Square One, if there's another Republican administration. That affects aviation, because they could lose a lot of money and aircraft they have already acquired become useless. How many of the A330/321s is Iran Air now flying? And how much did they pay for them?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:45 pm

777luver wrote:
scbriml wrote:
777luver wrote:

But neither side is willing to budge on the issues that would move them closer to an agreement


Saying you're willing to meet and discuss the issue is already progress compared to the situation on January 19th.


But Iran doesn't seem willing to meet.....


I haven't seen that reported anywhere.
 
Hassan27
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:58 pm

Do people think Iran will still take the 77W's it ordered? Just read the positive news on the nuclear talks today, which make me feel optimistic that we could see the resumption of aircraft deliveries this summer (if the talks are successful). Found it a little surprising that IR did not include 787s in its original order.
 
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ER757
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:58 pm

Hassan27 wrote:
Do people think Iran will still take the 77W's it ordered? Just read the positive news on the nuclear talks today, which make me feel optimistic that we could see the resumption of aircraft deliveries this summer (if the talks are successful). Found it a little surprising that IR did not include 787s in its original order.

They are just starting indirect talks through intermediaries - a resolution to the disagreement is nowhere close, so deliveries this summer would be unlikely at best. If things eventually do open up, I'd expect changes to the original order - maybe replacing 77W's with 779's and/or swapping out for 787's of various models (9's and 10's)
 
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Polot
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:00 pm

Hassan27 wrote:
Do people think Iran will still take the 77W's it ordered? Just read the positive news on the nuclear talks today, which make me feel optimistic that we could see the resumption of aircraft deliveries this summer (if the talks are successful). Found it a little surprising that IR did not include 787s in its original order.

IR did not have any firm order placed with Boeing at the time the sanctions were re-introduced, the deal had not moved that that stage yet. If/when IR can order western aircraft I would expect them to change their order mix with both Boeing and Airbus to better fit current needs and reflects current availabilities. For Boeing I would expect no 77Ws and 787s instead, with Airbus no A320ceos and A330ceos. Maybe no A330neo as well with more A350s instead if go for 787.

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