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777luver
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Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:48 pm

Thought this was interesting. Iran's head of their CAO wrote a letter seeking to get clarification on its Boeing order now that Biden is in office.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aeroti ... te%3fv=amp

Wonder if they will get an answer
 
Antarius
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:55 pm

Hopefully. Jacking around with civil aviation is childish and dangerous.
 
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moo
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:01 pm

This is risky for Iran, whatever the Biden administrations position is - I know this borders on a political post, but it has relevance here...

If the Republican stance doesn't change with regard to Iran, then the next Republican President or the next time the Republicans control the Senate, they can block spare parts sales to Iran and there goes a nice fleet, because it will be near to impossible for them to sell that fleet on without the buyer also running foul of US restrictions.

So Iran may get some planes delivered in the next 4 years, but they might not be able to use them after that.
 
VS11
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:40 pm

777luver wrote:
Thought this was interesting. Iran's head of their CAO wrote a letter seeking to get clarification on its Boeing order now that Biden is in office.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aeroti ... te%3fv=amp

Wonder if they will get an answer


They will and it will be in the affirmative. The US wants to resume the Iran nuclear deal and this would be a good first step. In addition, Boeing has produced plenty of planes that are being deferred or canceled, no real reason to forfeit this opportunity.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:48 pm

moo wrote:
So Iran may get some planes delivered in the next 4 years, but they might not be able to use them after that.

That's a threat that comes with any aircraft except a handful of old or obscure models. Whether they buy A320 or 777X, MC-21 or CR929, new or used, all modern aircraft have sufficient US content that a US embargo would have an impact.

It's one of the reasons why countries like Russia and China are so eager to support a domestic industry that could produce their own parts if necessary.
 
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OA412
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:49 pm

I realize that there are political aspects to this issue, but a reminder that any blatantly political posts that aren't civil aviation related belong in non aviation and not in this forum.
 
Capricorn
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:57 pm

I give this a chance (not a big one) as Biden's theme so far seems to be undoing most of what the previous administration did. I wonder, however, if IR would still want the same models they previously ordered, or if they wish to restructure/change their order. Does it still make sense for them to take the 77W or would it not be more attractive for both, Iran Air and Boeing, to switch to the 77X or the 787?

Could potentially be a big win-win for the OEMs and for IR.
 
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Polot
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:00 pm

Capricorn wrote:
I give this a chance (not a big one) as Biden's theme so far seems to be undoing most of what the previous administration did. I wonder, however, if IR would still want the same models they previously ordered, or if they wish to restructure/change their order. Does it still make sense for them to take the 77W or would it not be more attractive for both, Iran Air and Boeing, to switch to the 77X or the 787?

Could potentially be a big win-win for the OEMs and for IR.

I’m sure they will restructure/change the order to better fit current needs. Keep in mind that the Boeing order, unlike Airbus’s, was never firmed to begin with.
 
Capricorn
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:05 pm

Polot wrote:
Capricorn wrote:
I give this a chance (not a big one) as Biden's theme so far seems to be undoing most of what the previous administration did. I wonder, however, if IR would still want the same models they previously ordered, or if they wish to restructure/change their order. Does it still make sense for them to take the 77W or would it not be more attractive for both, Iran Air and Boeing, to switch to the 77X or the 787?

Could potentially be a big win-win for the OEMs and for IR.

I’m sure they will restructure/change the order to better fit current needs. Keep in mind that the Boeing order, unlike Airbus’s, was never firmed to begin with.


Thanks for the info. It is great for IR to have some flexibility.

If that indeed goes through, then I would advise them to only take planes that can actually be delivered during the next 4 years, as we never know if the political situation will change again after the next election. Luckily in the current market probably not too big of a problem, as there are probably many customers willing/hoping to defer their orders. And I think both OEMs will be accommodating to such a request. Much like the 13 ATR got a rushed delivery before exports to Iran were again restricted.
 
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Polot
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:07 pm

Capricorn wrote:
Polot wrote:
Capricorn wrote:
I give this a chance (not a big one) as Biden's theme so far seems to be undoing most of what the previous administration did. I wonder, however, if IR would still want the same models they previously ordered, or if they wish to restructure/change their order. Does it still make sense for them to take the 77W or would it not be more attractive for both, Iran Air and Boeing, to switch to the 77X or the 787?

Could potentially be a big win-win for the OEMs and for IR.

I’m sure they will restructure/change the order to better fit current needs. Keep in mind that the Boeing order, unlike Airbus’s, was never firmed to begin with.


Thanks for the info. It is great for IR to have some flexibility.

If that indeed goes through, then I would advise them to only take planes that can actually be delivered during the next 4 years, as we never know if the political situation will change again after the next election. Luckily in the current market probably not too big of a problem, as there are probably many customers willing/hoping to defer their orders. And I think both OEMs will be accommodating to such a request. Much like the 13 ATR got a rushed delivery before exports to Iran were again restricted.

I’m guessing if things do open up again IR will take a bunch of MAX white tails on an accelerated delivery schedule versus waiting for new builds. Possibly some 787 white tails depending on how many are available.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:08 pm

VS11 wrote:
They will and it will be in the affirmative. The US wants to resume the Iran nuclear deal and this would be a good first step. In addition, Boeing has produced plenty of planes that are being deferred or canceled, no real reason to forfeit this opportunity.

It's a game of chicken. Iran won't stop their nuclear program until the US guarantees a lifting of the sanctions and the US won't remove the sanctions until Iran stops enriching Uranium. Nothing has changed under the Biden administration.

I don't see any new aircraft in Iran's future unless they accept the terms and conditions as dictated by the US. That is the only way for this conflict to end.

Alternatively, the US might just put enough pressure on China or Russia to make them develop an airliner that's free of US content. But that's going to take at least 5-10 more years.
 
sas931
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:12 pm

The Iran Air order is a large one and would probably boost Boeings economy...Boeing isnt doing that well at the moment and would probably need the order for 80 new aircrafts , but will the order go through ?? If you look at it with air safety in the region in mind, Yes then the order should be filled, but I do doubt that the US government will OK the order...
 
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LAXdenizen
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:18 pm

There's no reason for Iran to buy Boeing if Airbus is willing and able to sell them aircraft.
 
Opus99
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:27 pm

LAXdenizen wrote:
There's no reason for Iran to buy Boeing if Airbus is willing and able to sell them aircraft.

Sales with airbus were also suspended with the deal. Obviously it's not as straightforward as that. Airbus cannot export planes to iran because airbus uses american technology as well to build some of their planes. Its in the article
 
randomdude83
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:33 pm

LAXdenizen wrote:
There's no reason for Iran to buy Boeing if Airbus is willing and able to sell them aircraft.


Buying Boeing is a gester of good will towards the american economy in hopes to keep the channels open but most importantly the supply chain/Support going without disruption (for both airbus and boeing).

This However will be used by the US Gov to demand IRAN be compliant on larger things so we'll just have to wait and see.
 
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LAXdenizen
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:58 pm

randomdude83 wrote:
LAXdenizen wrote:
There's no reason for Iran to buy Boeing if Airbus is willing and able to sell them aircraft.


Buying Boeing is a gester of good will towards the american economy in hopes to keep the channels open but most importantly the supply chain/Support going without disruption (for both airbus and boeing).

This However will be used by the US Gov to demand IRAN be compliant on larger things so we'll just have to wait and see.


I think what the last US administration showed, is that purchasing US airplanes from Boeing would be risky move. Some folks have mentioned the MAX. Well, why would would Iran Air a) purchase dozens of MAX's (at least until they have an established safety record) and b) have to rely on Boeing for parts + software updates should another US administration be less open to Iran.
 
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Polot
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:04 am

LAXdenizen wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
LAXdenizen wrote:
There's no reason for Iran to buy Boeing if Airbus is willing and able to sell them aircraft.


Buying Boeing is a gester of good will towards the american economy in hopes to keep the channels open but most importantly the supply chain/Support going without disruption (for both airbus and boeing).

This However will be used by the US Gov to demand IRAN be compliant on larger things so we'll just have to wait and see.


I think what the last US administration showed, is that purchasing US airplanes from Boeing would be risky move. Some folks have mentioned the MAX. Well, why would would Iran Air a) purchase dozens of MAX's (at least until they have an established safety record) and b) have to rely on Boeing for parts + software updates should another US administration be less open to Iran.

As others as pointed out Iran is in the exact same boat if they purchase from Airbus. At least purchasing Boeing gives the US an added incentive to ease restrictions.
 
sincx
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:20 am

Polot wrote:
LAXdenizen wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:

Buying Boeing is a gester of good will towards the american economy in hopes to keep the channels open but most importantly the supply chain/Support going without disruption (for both airbus and boeing).

This However will be used by the US Gov to demand IRAN be compliant on larger things so we'll just have to wait and see.


I think what the last US administration showed, is that purchasing US airplanes from Boeing would be risky move. Some folks have mentioned the MAX. Well, why would would Iran Air a) purchase dozens of MAX's (at least until they have an established safety record) and b) have to rely on Boeing for parts + software updates should another US administration be less open to Iran.

As others as pointed out Iran is in the exact same boat if they purchase from Airbus. At least purchasing Boeing gives the US an added incentive to ease restrictions.


The only sanctions-proof plane for Iran would be a hypothetical C919 with WS-20 engines (the CJ1000A probably won't be ready for another decade) and avionics/controls from the Y-20. With COMAC does not offer yet, but if the New Cold War keeps heating up, who knows.
 
Antarius
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:25 am

Polot wrote:
LAXdenizen wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:

Buying Boeing is a gester of good will towards the american economy in hopes to keep the channels open but most importantly the supply chain/Support going without disruption (for both airbus and boeing).

This However will be used by the US Gov to demand IRAN be compliant on larger things so we'll just have to wait and see.


I think what the last US administration showed, is that purchasing US airplanes from Boeing would be risky move. Some folks have mentioned the MAX. Well, why would would Iran Air a) purchase dozens of MAX's (at least until they have an established safety record) and b) have to rely on Boeing for parts + software updates should another US administration be less open to Iran.

As others as pointed out Iran is in the exact same boat if they purchase from Airbus. At least purchasing Boeing gives the US an added incentive to ease restrictions.


And to extra clarify it, if Iran could buy Airbus, then they would have by now. Instead, they're flying ancient A300s until this situation is resolved.
 
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ER757
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:37 am

sas931 wrote:
The Iran Air order is a large one and would probably boost Boeings economy...Boeing isnt doing that well at the moment and would probably need the order for 80 new aircrafts , but will the order go through ?? If you look at it with air safety in the region in mind, Yes then the order should be filled, but I do doubt that the US government will OK the order...

You are correct that none of the OEM's are raking in orders at the moment, for good reason. I am sure both Boeing and Airbus would welcome new orders from IR - I could certainly see Boeing putting pressure on the Washington congress members asking them to plead their case to Biden. Money talks as they say,,,,,,we shall see
 
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moo
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:39 am

mxaxai wrote:
moo wrote:
So Iran may get some planes delivered in the next 4 years, but they might not be able to use them after that.

That's a threat that comes with any aircraft except a handful of old or obscure models. Whether they buy A320 or 777X, MC-21 or CR929, new or used, all modern aircraft have sufficient US content that a US embargo would have an impact.

It's one of the reasons why countries like Russia and China are so eager to support a domestic industry that could produce their own parts if necessary.


With older models you can get plenty of spare parts on the second hand market from countries that arent affected by US restrictions.
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:50 am

Why did Iran not talk to Russia about the Sukhoi SSJ ? My understanding is the problem was the lack of a support network.... if Iran bought enough planes then presumably Sukhoi would be motivated to add proper support in Iran
 
bennett123
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:56 am

IMO, the key is not just what Biden does, but also how.

If he can get something through Congress, then it might stick.

Executive Orders can be overturned just like that.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:41 am

moo wrote:
This is risky for Iran, whatever the Biden administrations position is - I know this borders on a political post, but it has relevance here...

If the Republican stance doesn't change with regard to Iran, then the next Republican President or the next time the Republicans control the Senate, they can block spare parts sales to Iran and there goes a nice fleet, because it will be near to impossible for them to sell that fleet on without the buyer also running foul of US restrictions.

So Iran may get some planes delivered in the next 4 years, but they might not be able to use them after that.


Sanctions against Iran are not merely a Republican strategy. Just as a snapshot, although neglecting the Congressional majority which is also important:

Carter (D) - enacted
Reagan (R) - repealed, enacted again
Bush (R) - No actions? (I think previous sanctions expired)
Clinton (D) - enacted complete embargo, then later partially repealed
Bush (R) - Enacted increased sanctions
Obama (D) - enacted increased sanctions, then repealed and replaced with the UN JCPOA.
Trump (R) - Withdrew from JCPOA and re-enacted sanctions

In most of those cases, the policy has been in response to various actions by the Iranian government. From that perspective, the ability of Iran's airlines to sustain their fleets is tied to the broader political trends in the country.

Hopefully these orders can serve as one of the motives for both sides to earnestly work towards easing tensions again.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:50 am

randomdude83 wrote:
LAXdenizen wrote:
There's no reason for Iran to buy Boeing if Airbus is willing and able to sell them aircraft.


Buying Boeing is a gester of good will towards the american economy in hopes to keep the channels open but most importantly the supply chain/Support going without disruption (for both airbus and boeing).

This However will be used by the US Gov to demand IRAN be compliant on larger things so we'll just have to wait and see.


A prospective deal with Boeing isn't big enough to matter in the U.S. economy. All of U.S. aerospace (~$370 Billion) amounted to 1.8% of GDP. When commercial policy starts driving domestic policy and international diplomacy you've got a problem. Can you say SNC-Lavalin? Can you say BAE Systems Saudi arms deal inquiry squelched?
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:57 am

LAXdenizen wrote:
There's no reason for Iran to buy Boeing if Airbus is willing and able to sell them aircraft.


The Airbus deal cannot go through without a Boeing deal. This is the political reality.
 
cschleic
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:33 am

Didn't Iran manage to operate a fleet of Boeing planes, using their own parts and maintenance capabilities, for a long time during sanctions? After all that included 707s that hadn't even been produced for decades.
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:38 am

Cuba managed to get by using American cars from the 1950s.... and keep those cars going for 50+ years. Once it became possible to import new cars into Cuba, many people chose to do so

Iran *can* get by using 707 aircraft, but machinery has a finite life if you want it to be fairly reliable, making your own spare parts all the time is expensive and time consuming, what was fuel efficient 50 years ago is not considered to be fuel efficient now, consumer confidence in safety of old aircraft is low, airports around the world have noise standards that make it very difficult to use 707s nowadays, etc, etc...

There's only so far the Iranians can go by using very old aircraft without the explicit support of the manufacturer
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:50 am

How is Iran Air currently maintaining the A319/320/321/330's in their fleet?
 
alfa164
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:19 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Cuba managed to get by using American cars from the 1950s.... and keep those cars going for 50+ years. Once it became possible to import new cars into Cuba, many people chose to do so.


You might be surprised how many of the 50's American cars in Cuba are now powered by Russian-made tractor engines; the Cubans have been very resourceful in keeping their vintage cars in operation, albeit at the loss of many original components.

I don't think that is a practical option for aircraft.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:33 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Why did Iran not talk to Russia about the Sukhoi SSJ ? My understanding is the problem was the lack of a support network.... if Iran bought enough planes then presumably Sukhoi would be motivated to add proper support in Iran


Maybe they learned a thing or two from the IrAN-140 debacle. They also seem to have an aversion (well earned) to the TU-154 from the bad old days and perhaps that influenced their calculus. After all, they are maintaining and flying older western aircraft pretty well now, yet the sanction free soviet types of the same era are long gone.
 
Sokes
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:24 am

moo wrote:
With older models you can get plenty of spare parts on the second hand market from countries that arent affected by US restrictions.

As an Iranian politician the last plane I would order is a new model.
Why would they? Considering their fleet I assume they are experts in maintenance and labour cost should be moderate.

Tehran to Beijing is 3000nm, to London 2400nm, Bangalore below 2000nm. Ignoring the 1000m altitude there is no better place on the map for a hypothetical hub Asia to Europe than Tehran. For small South China cities a Neo may be better, but for offering a one stop connection Leipzig to Hohhot the old A320 will do.

In short:
Now would be a good time to replace the full fleet with 12 year old planes which need a D check.

But then I don't think US allies in the Gulf would appreciate if Iran gets traffic rights to Europe. So Iran should just replace their 40 or so planes and lie low.
 
r6russian
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:07 am

theyre not getting any new planes til Russia makes completely russian made plane with zero western components. It would take a drastic downturn in US-Russia relations for them to have the need or motivation to make their own avionics or develop modern big turbofans. So either never or 10 years after WW3 starts
 
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747classic
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:36 am

Mahan Air operates already a considerable number of Airbus aircraft :
A300-600 3x
A310-300 9x
A340-300 5x
A340-600 7x
Especially the A340-600 or -500 , all RR powered are the perfect long range aircraft for Iran in the present situation. Many more A346's or A345's are stored and available.
 
Capricorn
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:44 pm

747classic wrote:
Mahan Air operates already a considerable number of Airbus aircraft :
A300-600 3x
A310-300 9x
A340-300 5x
A340-600 7x
Especially the A340-600 or -500 , all RR powered are the perfect long range aircraft for Iran in the present situation. Many more A346's or A345's are stored and available.


Yes that indeed often gets forgotten, IR can anyway acquire planes one way or another, it is hard to inhibit that. Like the second hand A319 IR received via Tajikistan in 2019. Probably it is just a more expensive since this type of plane acquisition most likely involves certain brown envelopes that drive up the cost and therefore if IR has the option they would rather buy new. But with C19 there probably are many planes sitting around that IR can get its hands on. And as another user pointed out, these planes are probably easier to maintain too.

It is possible to ban exports to Tajikistan and any other country that helps Iran as well, but there are probably always a couple of other countries (routes) IR can get second hand planes from. And the more the US restrict its exports, the greater the market potential for a 100% Chinese/Russian made plane gets. These programs then faster reach economies of scale and Boeing / Airbus loose even more market share down the road. Countries on the US naughty boy list after all have to ask them selves if they really want to order Boeing (US made) and potentially loose the deposit on their orders in case of changing political circumstances, like maybe Myanmar currently. There definitely is some rational of establishing some relations with Iran and let them import some civilian goods, even if it only serves to counter Chinese / Russian influence.

Source A319 acquisition:
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/iran-ai ... -aircraft/
 
JohanTally
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:51 pm

Sokes wrote:
moo wrote:
With older models you can get plenty of spare parts on the second hand market from countries that arent affected by US restrictions.

As an Iranian politician the last plane I would order is a new model.
Why would they? Considering their fleet I assume they are experts in maintenance and labour cost should be moderate.

Tehran to Beijing is 3000nm, to London 2400nm, Bangalore below 2000nm. Ignoring the 1000m altitude there is no better place on the map for a hypothetical hub Asia to Europe than Tehran. For small South China cities a Neo may be better, but for offering a one stop connection Leipzig to Hohhot the old A320 will do.

In short:
Now would be a good time to replace the full fleet with 12 year old planes which need a D check.

But then I don't think US allies in the Gulf would appreciate if Iran gets traffic rights to Europe. So Iran should just replace their 40 or so planes and lie low.


With that logic maybe BGW would be a better option having an elevation 1150m lower than TEH.
 
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Polot
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:58 pm

Sokes wrote:

But then I don't think US allies in the Gulf would appreciate if Iran gets traffic rights to Europe. So Iran should just replace their 40 or so planes and lie low.

Iran already has traffic rights to most of Europe. They just can’t exercise a lot of them due to sanctions making the routes near impossible to operate, eg fuelers in EU refusing to let IR buy fuel, and because most of their fleet is blacklisted from the EU due to maintenance concerns (ultimately stemming from sanctions).
 
mxaxai
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:20 pm

Polot wrote:
They just can’t exercise a lot of them due to sanctions making the routes near impossible to operate, eg fuelers in EU refusing to let IR buy fuel,

They're not simply refusing their request to buy fuel. IR just can't pay for it due to the US sanctions blocking the transfer of money through banks.
 
Sokes
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:02 pm

JohanTally wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Tehran to Beijing is 3000nm, to London 2400nm, Bangalore below 2000nm. Ignoring the 1000m altitude there is no better place on the map for a hypothetical hub Asia to Europe than Tehran.


With that logic maybe BGW would be a better option having an elevation 1150m lower than TEH.

Yes, but Baghdad is 400 nm further West.
With A321s to Europe and India and bigger planes to China you are right.
At any rate the Gulf carriers are too far South. It doesn't matter that much, but for narrowbody use it may.
But then I ignore politics.
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:47 pm

Perhaps it would make sense to allow Iran to buy a lot of the surplus aircraft that have just been sent to the desert, or are just about to be... that would give them a much newer fleet without the need to rely on up to date spares, would help the US owners of the aircraft recover some of their current losses, and not be seen to be allowing Iran too much of a get-out-of-jail-free card.
 
rutankrd
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Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:23 pm

Primary sanctions are the fiscal ones imposed on US business trades with Iranian companies and fund transfers.
Until the US banks can once again legally move funds to and from Iran nothing changes.

The political rhetoric may lighten up but only if Iran now moves to pause further enrichment; however think at least 18 months before we are at a point to discuss the Iranair orders in all honesty.
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4654
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:43 pm

The 777X program's current death spiral is probably something quite advantageous to IranAir as far as lobbying is concerned. With Boeing desperately needing every 777X order it can get, it sure puts pressure on their lobbyists to (legally) grease the right palms of lawmakers who are trying to stop a thawing of relations between the US and Iran.

Obviously this assumes that IranAir still wants the 777X. Their current network isn't exactly full of ULH flying, which is what the 777X is optimized for.

As mentioned earlier, all the 737MAX White Tails which Boeing needs to get rid of also falls quite nicely in IranAir's favour.

OTOH the world is still in the middle of a pandemic and, whilst I'm not privy to the details of IranAir's financial situation, I doubt it's going to be particularly healthy. Maybe better to play it safe and stick to acquisitions of second hand aircraft as needed.

Capricorn wrote:
If that indeed goes through, then I would advise them to only take planes that can actually be delivered during the next 4 years, as we never know if the political situation will change again after the next election.


They'll certainly be dotting the Is, and crossing the Ts when it comes to making sure that the deposits are held in escrow in a jurisdiction out of reach from pressures of US political changes.


moo wrote:
With older models you can get plenty of spare parts on the second hand market from countries that arent affected by US restrictions.


A very good point which would favor a deal to take the HNA A330 whitetails.


747classic wrote:
Especially the A340-600 or -500 , all RR powered are the perfect long range aircraft for Iran in the present situation. Many more A346's or A345's are stored and available.


If relations between Iran and the US don't thaw, I hope that they buy up Lufthansa and Iberia's A340-600 fleet. :hyper:
 
Avgeek21
Posts: 300
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:44 am

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:58 pm

Please put politics, religion and economics aside. None of the technology nowadays is unknown or can’t be accessed anyways. How long can old frames be patched up and kept going? I’d rather have some 21st century stuff in the skies and airlines/crews with proper training and support going forward, flying overhead. Safety first. This is civil aviation, not military stuff.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2706
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:11 pm

zkojq wrote:
moo wrote:
With older models you can get plenty of spare parts on the second hand market from countries that arent affected by US restrictions.


A very good point which would favor a deal to take the HNA A330 whitetails.

I'm sure IR and Airbus would love a deal for a bunch of A330neo but I don't see much incentive for the US to allow that ...

On the other hand, there are quite a few used Airbus aircraft owned by the now-bankrupt HNA group, this could be an easy way to get rid of those liabilities and pay off debt. Perhaps with a stop in Tajikistan to seal the deal.
 
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NameOmitted
Posts: 1060
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:57 pm

Iran Air's order was for something like 200 aircraft, including 50 303 MAX. Boeing has some 100 white-tail Max aircraft that could be delivered during this administration.

Right now, further bailouts of big business are unpopular and will continue to be so under this administration. Here, an opportunity presents itself to allow Iran to do a Boeing bailout for us. There is a lot more pushing this forward than holding it back.
 
starrion
Posts: 1025
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:19 pm

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:23 pm

They could buy a slew of parked 737NG and keep a portion for spares. With so many airlines on life support it would be an absolute buyers market. For the widebodies, A330 would probably make the most sense, and then do the same. They could build multiple airlines from what the leading edge airlines are parking.
 
rutankrd
Posts: 3102
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:08 am

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:49 pm

Avgeek21 wrote:
Please put politics, religion and economics aside. None of the technology nowadays is unknown or can’t be accessed anyways. How long can old frames be patched up and kept going? I’d rather have some 21st century stuff in the skies and airlines/crews with proper training and support going forward, flying overhead. Safety first. This is civil aviation, not military stuff.


Impossible to discuss this without reference to the political and economic pressures imposed on Tehran , its fundamental to the arguments mate
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20086
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:13 pm

mxaxai wrote:
I'm sure IR and Airbus would love a deal for a bunch of A330neo but I don't see much incentive for the US to allow that ...


Airbus and IR already have a firm order for A339s.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2706
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:18 pm

scbriml wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
I'm sure IR and Airbus would love a deal for a bunch of A330neo but I don't see much incentive for the US to allow that ...


Airbus and IR already have a firm order for A339s.

Which is blocked by the US sanctions.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2953
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Iran Air seeks to figure out the future on its Boeing order

Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:46 pm

mxaxai wrote:
scbriml wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
I'm sure IR and Airbus would love a deal for a bunch of A330neo but I don't see much incentive for the US to allow that ...


Airbus and IR already have a firm order for A339s.

Which is blocked by the US sanctions.


Can the US really impose any fines on Airbus though if Airbus started delivering new planes anyway? I would think it would be very difficult for the US to actually be awarded any damages. I really don't think Airbus has anything to lose.

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