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a7ala
Posts: 378
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:52 pm

zkncj wrote:
zkojq wrote:
IMO more MIQ space needs to be added in smaller cities where an outbreak isn't going to put our biggest city into Level Three (or Level Four). Somewhere like Taupo would be ideal in this regard, though I guess Taupo is more difficult to seal off - handy that Auckland is on the narrowest bit of the country. Obviously it's a trade off though with a need to have big enough facilities to get economies of scale (security guards, doctors + nurses etc).


The latest lockdown was projected to have cost Auckland, $30m/day so around $90million for 72hours. If International arrivals are going to be kept by large kept in AKL MIQ Hotels. Then maybe it’s time to start charging an MIQ Auckland Recovery Tax on all returnees staying in Auckland? $1000 per returnee should be going into an Auckland Recovery fund, to subsidise and compensate Aucklanders for MIQ outbreaks.

Aucklanders live in constant stress and fear of lockdown from MIQ leaks, yet we get nothing for it. We didn’t ask to have returning International Traveler locked up in our hotels.


Remember almost half of those returning will be going to Auckland anyway. Plus the benefits Aucklanders get is fantastic/cheap access to air services and the majority of international visitor spend in the country when borders are open.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:42 am

zkncj wrote:
zkojq wrote:
IMO more MIQ space needs to be added in smaller cities where an outbreak isn't going to put our biggest city into Level Three (or Level Four). Somewhere like Taupo would be ideal in this regard, though I guess Taupo is more difficult to seal off - handy that Auckland is on the narrowest bit of the country. Obviously it's a trade off though with a need to have big enough facilities to get economies of scale (security guards, doctors + nurses etc).


The latest lockdown was projected to have cost Auckland, $30m/day so around $90million for 72hours. If International arrivals are going to be kept by large kept in AKL MIQ Hotels. Then maybe it’s time to start charging an MIQ Auckland Recovery Tax on all returnees staying in Auckland? $1000 per returnee should be going into an Auckland Recovery fund, to subsidise and compensate Aucklanders for MIQ outbreaks.

Aucklanders live in constant stress and fear of lockdown from MIQ leaks, yet we get nothing for it. We didn’t ask to have returning International Traveler locked up in our hotels.


Add 30-40% to the final government MIQ bill if we did this? The vast majority of guests don't pay for their own stay.

So it'd be central government giving money to local to spend where they feel fit. The local business in Howick may not see a cent of it. Aren't we better off having central government give money out by way of their various COVID support packages as they've done.

Having MIQ hotels in AKL has also kept some in jobs via the various supply chains associated with keeping 3,000+ people looked after around the clock (food supplies, food preperatiion, drivers, washing, cleaning, security, fencing hire etc etc).

I wouldn't go as far as saying Aucklanders live in fear - small business owners do I'm sure! But they likely do outside of AKL as well. Go back mid Jan look at the daily tracer scanning numbers and that'll show just how many of us were living very normal pre COVID lives.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:03 am

zkncj wrote:
$1000 per returnee should be going into an Auckland Recovery fund, to subsidise and compensate Aucklanders for MIQ outbreaks.

Aucklanders live in constant stress and fear of lockdown from MIQ leaks, yet we get nothing for it. We didn’t ask to have returning International Traveler locked up in our hotels.

Sorry, but this is the kind of Auckland-centrism that gives the rest of the country ammunition to disparage us. The WHOLE country is hurting, and while the direct impact is most strongly felt here, the damage to the tourism industry is nationwide. Seems to me there’s just as much likelihood of a MIQ-mishap in Hamilton, Rotorua, Christchurch or wherever as there is in Auckland. I say we Aucklanders should just suck it up and not expect extra privileges.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:32 am

DavidByrne wrote:
zkncj wrote:
$1000 per returnee should be going into an Auckland Recovery fund, to subsidise and compensate Aucklanders for MIQ outbreaks.

Aucklanders live in constant stress and fear of lockdown from MIQ leaks, yet we get nothing for it. We didn’t ask to have returning International Traveler locked up in our hotels.

Sorry, but this is the kind of Auckland-centrism that gives the rest of the country ammunition to disparage us. The WHOLE country is hurting, and while the direct impact is most strongly felt here, the damage to the tourism industry is nationwide. Seems to me there’s just as much likelihood of a MIQ-mishap in Hamilton, Rotorua, Christchurch or wherever as there is in Auckland. I say we Aucklanders should just suck it up and not expect extra privileges.


In defence of zknjc, he raises a valid point. Even if I don't completely agree with his solution.

AKL is at higher risk of alert levels given we host the majority of the MIQ facilities and the only quarantine facility. We also see the most household goods come across the border into our super city via sea or air so have the majority of border workers. Oh and we're home to most international airline crew based onshore.

In fact it's not a risk, it's happened. We've gone into level 3 twice while other parts of NZ have only seen level 2 which have implications but far fewer than level 3.Especvially in the likes of Queen street retail.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:37 am

zkncj wrote:
zkojq wrote:
IMO more MIQ space needs to be added in smaller cities where an outbreak isn't going to put our biggest city into Level Three (or Level Four). Somewhere like Taupo would be ideal in this regard, though I guess Taupo is more difficult to seal off - handy that Auckland is on the narrowest bit of the country. Obviously it's a trade off though with a need to have big enough facilities to get economies of scale (security guards, doctors + nurses etc).


The latest lockdown was projected to have cost Auckland, $30m/day so around $90million for 72hours. If International arrivals are going to be kept by large kept in AKL MIQ Hotels. Then maybe it’s time to start charging an MIQ Auckland Recovery Tax on all returnees staying in Auckland? $1000 per returnee should be going into an Auckland Recovery fund, to subsidise and compensate Aucklanders for MIQ outbreaks.

Aucklanders live in constant stress and fear of lockdown from MIQ leaks, yet we get nothing for it. We didn’t ask to have returning International Traveler locked up in our hotels.

I’m an Aucklander. I work in aviation. The last 120 hours have been a royal pain in the butt. I would not describe myself as living in constant stress or fear of lockdown.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:47 am

a7ala wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
For those interested in or following the debate on AIAL development (or argued lack of). Their half year results are out. While there's naturally a huge drop in revenue and profit they're still turning $30m in profit.

https://corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz ... nd-reports

Surprising they're still able to be profitable given the lack of international pax and cargo flights in addition to a small reduction in domestic movements. I've made my thoughts clear on their investment in domestic passenger experience before


It does beg the question is AIAL really in the business of running an airport? Or are they more into the property business. While using the airport as front to get all there needed resource consents.

If only someone would threaten to build another private airport near Auckland.

Would have thought that CHC would of be better in building an second Auckland Airport, than second Queenstown Airport in Tarras.


Airports have two different types of revenue streams. Aeronautical (runways, terminals - for passengers/cargo) and non Aeronautical (car parking, retail, non-aero property). The non-aero side of the business is not regulated and they can do what they like. For the assets that are defined as Aero, they charge airlines to use and prices are determined using a building blocks method overseen but not regulated by the commerce commission. On the aero assets (terminals for simplicity) there is always tension between airlines and airports about how much and quickly to invest. AIAL would love to build a brand new shiny terminal as they can recover the costs from the airlines - however the airlines are wanting to keep their costs low and so like to see the investment deferred as long as possible. This is particularly the case for Air NZ where investment in new facilities could enable more competition in the future - and so they will only support investment when the situation is getting so bad that its hurting their operations and customers.

In the current environment where airlines are losing huge amounts of money, there is zero interest in paying for shiny new terminals, and also airports recognise they cant ask airlines to pay for these things - so many aero capital projects are being deferred. Added to this you have the complication that at AKL I think some of the facilities arent even owned by the airport..

So when people complain about AKL airport and the terminal facilities remember the lack of investment is probably being driven by the airlines.

While there is an element of truth to that, in reality it is still the airport company itself that has been dragging the chain. The airlines obviously don’t want to pay more than they need to, however they have good reason not to pay more given AIALs history of building low-grade/temporary/inadequate infrastructure while reporting big profits. One only needs to look at the international B pier that deserves its name as it is little more than a tin shed definitely “B” grade.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
Deepinsider
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:20 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
zkncj wrote:
$1000 per returnee should be going into an Auckland Recovery fund, to subsidise and compensate Aucklanders for MIQ outbreaks.

Aucklanders live in constant stress and fear of lockdown from MIQ leaks, yet we get nothing for it. We didn’t ask to have returning International Traveler locked up in our hotels.

Sorry, but this is the kind of Auckland-centrism that gives the rest of the country ammunition to disparage us. The WHOLE country is hurting, and while the direct impact is most strongly felt here, the damage to the tourism industry is nationwide. Seems to me there’s just as much likelihood of a MIQ-mishap in Hamilton, Rotorua, Christchurch or wherever as there is in Auckland. I say we Aucklanders should just suck it up and not expect extra privileges.


Don't really agree David. With Auckland having had level 3 alert events not including the
rest of the country, it's clear that Auckland is high risk territory. that's pretty obvious being that
they have the overwhelming numbers of arriving people. For that reason I would promote priority
vaccinations for the greater Auckland area once essential front line staff are done. This protection
layer must surely then benefit the rest of us as the Aucklanders carry on with their travel habits.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:22 am

Haven’t been able to find an link for it yet, just seem on 1News tonight that on the last half an hour Australia has agreed to resume the one way travel bubble.

Although those from Auckland now will need an negative PCR test within 72hours of departure.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:53 pm

zkncj wrote:
Haven’t been able to find an link for it yet, just seem on 1News tonight that on the last half an hour Australia has agreed to resume the one way travel bubble.

Although those from Auckland now will need an negative PCR test within 72hours of departure.


I'm sure you've all seen it by now but for the record.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... conditions
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:02 pm

Have we moved into a new phase...

I could well be wrong here but it feels like Friday and yesterdays initial vaccinations mark a significant turning point in this pandemic here at home.

There's not been many milestones on this journey. In retrospect the shut down happened really quickly, from the initial Wuhan charter to Whangaparaoa, which was followed by the call for people entering NZ to self isolate then the complete border closure, level 4 and the swarm of reputation flights..

We were then feed a variety of conflicting opinion on how the future would play out. Ranging from we'll never find a vaccine to we should have it by the end of the year and everything in between.

There was hope of a "bubble" by September but that all faded away with various "outbreaks" and the hope of a return to normal travel in the near future faded quickly.

The world got great news in late last year with promising results on various vaccines followed by their approval and finally the first few shots.

But we've now started the rollout here. What does this mean though?

- I'm hopeful we'll have a secure border workforce within a month. Which will result in far fewer, ideally no "leaks".
- I'm hopeful we'll continue to see more evidence on the global scene that the vaccination prevents spreading the disease
- The above will enable a Tasman Bubble within the next few months.

From there how will a return to normal play out...

- Vaccination Passports will become the normal here but offshore as well. Unsure how they'll look/work though.
- Safe/Green Zones - Likely parts of Asia maybe by the very end of 2021 in conjunction with evidence of being vaccinated.
- High risk high volume countries such as the USA/UK not to return until 2022.

One key point which doesn't get much "air time" is the rapid reduction in case numbers in the likes of India, UK and the US. There's obviously a lot to consider, is this the "eye of the storm" is one US article I read earlier, but also an opinion on the reduction is more to do with a settling back to normal post the Xmas period vs any benefit from vaccinations.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:58 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Have we moved into a new phase...

I could well be wrong here but it feels like Friday and yesterdays initial vaccinations mark a significant turning point in this pandemic here at home.

There's not been many milestones on this journey. In retrospect the shut down happened really quickly, from the initial Wuhan charter to Whangaparaoa, which was followed by the call for people entering NZ to self isolate then the complete border closure, level 4 and the swarm of reputation flights..

We were then feed a variety of conflicting opinion on how the future would play out. Ranging from we'll never find a vaccine to we should have it by the end of the year and everything in between.

There was hope of a "bubble" by September but that all faded away with various "outbreaks" and the hope of a return to normal travel in the near future faded quickly.

The world got great news in late last year with promising results on various vaccines followed by their approval and finally the first few shots.

But we've now started the rollout here. What does this mean though?

- I'm hopeful we'll have a secure border workforce within a month. Which will result in far fewer, ideally no "leaks".
- I'm hopeful we'll continue to see more evidence on the global scene that the vaccination prevents spreading the disease
- The above will enable a Tasman Bubble within the next few months.

From there how will a return to normal play out...

- Vaccination Passports will become the normal here but offshore as well. Unsure how they'll look/work though.
- Safe/Green Zones - Likely parts of Asia maybe by the very end of 2021 in conjunction with evidence of being vaccinated.
- High risk high volume countries such as the USA/UK not to return until 2022.

One key point which doesn't get much "air time" is the rapid reduction in case numbers in the likes of India, UK and the US. There's obviously a lot to consider, is this the "eye of the storm" is one US article I read earlier, but also an opinion on the reduction is more to do with a settling back to normal post the Xmas period vs any benefit from vaccinations.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Let’s just hope those anti-vaxx nutcases don’t screw everything up for everyone. I certainly hope the airlines go ahead with the no jab no fly policy.
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777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:33 pm

NZ6 wrote:

- I'm hopeful we'll have a secure border workforce within a month. Which will result in far fewer, ideally no "leaks".
- I'm hopeful we'll continue to see more evidence on the global scene that the vaccination prevents spreading the disease
- The above will enable a Tasman Bubble within the next few months.

From there how will a return to normal play out...

- Vaccination Passports will become the normal here but offshore as well. Unsure how they'll look/work though.
- Safe/Green Zones - Likely parts of Asia maybe by the very end of 2021 in conjunction with evidence of being vaccinated.
- High risk high volume countries such as the USA/UK not to return until 2022.


I don't see any two way tasman/Islands bubble happening till at least towards the end of this year. Yes MIQ/border/close contacts are getting their shots now, followed by health care workers (including me) and their close contacts, but the full vaccination will start around May/June/July. There is simply no way our borders will start opening till there is a big % of both populations having their vaccination as the risk is still very high for the general population. Travel to the UK and USA simply won't happen this year, but very high chances of early next year with bookings starting towards the end of this year.

Only way I can see a vaccination passport fully working is for a health note being put into our passport chip. Any other option runs a very high risk IMHO of black market by passes for those who don't/refuse to get the vaccine. I believe many countries will make a proof of vaccine a requirement for entry
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zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:13 am

What bubbles do we predict follow Australia and the Cook Islands? Which I’m now more expecting toward Q3/4 once an large amount of the general population is immune.

Maybe Singapore could be up there on that list? They seem to be doing pretty well locally on the case front. They have around 10-20 daily imported cases, but minimal local cases.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:40 am

777ER wrote:
I don't see any two way tasman/Islands bubble happening till at least towards the end of this year. Yes MIQ/border/close contacts are getting their shots now, followed by health care workers (including me) and their close contacts, but the full vaccination will start around May/June/July. There is simply no way our borders will start opening till there is a big % of both populations having their vaccination as the risk is still very high for the general population. Travel to the UK and USA simply won't happen this year, but very high chances of early next year with bookings starting towards the end of this year.

Only way I can see a vaccination passport fully working is for a health note being put into our passport chip. Any other option runs a very high risk IMHO of black market by passes for those who don't/refuse to get the vaccine. I believe many countries will make a proof of vaccine a requirement for entry


Re the bubble - I hope you're wrong but it's certainly one way it may go. The only thing "holding it back", is the continuous outbreaks. Potentially these should dry up as those involved in and around the facilities become vaccinated. Well that's my hope.

Then the risk focuses on escapee guests, cross contamination on arriving/departing guest at MIQ and on surfaces of cargo etc all of which can be managed.

Time will tell.

As for the passport; the logical thing would be a electronic record in your e-passport. Question: Is such a mechanism available now? If not it would require global cooperation and agreeance and that just sounds like a lengthy, complicated, political process.

The alternative is a vaccination card stamped/authorized by a nationally or W.H.O approved organization. M.O.H here in NZ. Obviously like you say, wide open to the black market but I'm not sure if it's much of a concern. You're really only targeting those who don't want the vaccine but will still travel at all costs - i.e. pay the black market for fraudulent documents. This risk is also lowed if only allowing safe zones until we have a very high level of uptake on any vaccine in 2022 sometime.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:51 am

NZ6 wrote:
As for the passport; the logical thing would be a electronic record in your e-passport. Question: Is such a mechanism available now? If not it would require global cooperation and agreeance and that just sounds like a lengthy, complicated, political process.


One would assume that the chips in our e-passports, could simply had additional data written to them? With some special kiosks setup at our airports, that you could get your passport updated on your first departure.
It would seem globally logical to have that information stored on e-passport chip.

I’ve got until December 2029 on my current passport, hopefully don’t have to renew it before then to include covid information.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:06 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
As for the passport; the logical thing would be a electronic record in your e-passport. Question: Is such a mechanism available now? If not it would require global cooperation and agreeance and that just sounds like a lengthy, complicated, political process.


One would assume that the chips in our e-passports, could simply had additional data written to them? With some special kiosks setup at our airports, that you could get your passport updated on your first departure.
It would seem globally logical to have that information stored on e-passport chip.

I’ve got until December 2029 on my current passport, hopefully don’t have to renew it before then to include covid information.


But that "data" needs to be universal and sent/received in a agreed format. Is there a framework for that? who sets it etc... Sounds simple but how quickly can it be done or is it there today?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:36 am

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
As for the passport; the logical thing would be a electronic record in your e-passport. Question: Is such a mechanism available now? If not it would require global cooperation and agreeance and that just sounds like a lengthy, complicated, political process.


One would assume that the chips in our e-passports, could simply had additional data written to them? With some special kiosks setup at our airports, that you could get your passport updated on your first departure.
It would seem globally logical to have that information stored on e-passport chip.

I’ve got until December 2029 on my current passport, hopefully don’t have to renew it before then to include covid information.


But that "data" needs to be universal and sent/received in a agreed format. Is there a framework for that? who sets it etc... Sounds simple but how quickly can it be done or is it there today?


From some quick research, it sounds like the ICAO since the 1980 has had recommended standards for passports. In which most countries adhere too.

So logical sense would be for the ICAO to recommend an standard method for an covid password.
 
anstar
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:12 am

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
As for the passport; the logical thing would be a electronic record in your e-passport. Question: Is such a mechanism available now? If not it would require global cooperation and agreeance and that just sounds like a lengthy, complicated, political process.


One would assume that the chips in our e-passports, could simply had additional data written to them? With some special kiosks setup at our airports, that you could get your passport updated on your first departure.
It would seem globally logical to have that information stored on e-passport chip.

I’ve got until December 2029 on my current passport, hopefully don’t have to renew it before then to include covid information.


But that "data" needs to be universal and sent/received in a agreed format. Is there a framework for that? who sets it etc... Sounds simple but how quickly can it be done or is it there today?


IATA are already working on a travel pass
https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:14 am

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
As for the passport; the logical thing would be a electronic record in your e-passport. Question: Is such a mechanism available now? If not it would require global cooperation and agreeance and that just sounds like a lengthy, complicated, political process.


One would assume that the chips in our e-passports, could simply had additional data written to them? With some special kiosks setup at our airports, that you could get your passport updated on your first departure.
It would seem globally logical to have that information stored on e-passport chip.

I’ve got until December 2029 on my current passport, hopefully don’t have to renew it before then to include covid information.


But that "data" needs to be universal and sent/received in a agreed format. Is there a framework for that? who sets it etc... Sounds simple but how quickly can it be done or is it there today?

I wonder if it would be in the same form as ESTA/ETA which has proliferated around the world since being introduced by the USA. I know the automated passport processing system (APP) will give a board/do not board message based on ESTA/ETA status for people travelling to places a visa isn’t required, so I imagine a similar format of message (through SITA presumably) would work. The devil would be in the detail of how it would work; would the record of vaccination be held in the immigration computer system of the country of origin, and be polled through APP as a requirement for acceptance by the country of destination? Or would you have to do like with an ESTA/ETA and submit your vaccination record to the country of destination in order for an authority to be issued?

Will be interesting to see how it is implemented. COVID-19 is unlikely to be the last major global pandemic in the 21st century, so would be worth something being implemented which can be used for quarantine purposes in general, and not just an ad-hoc mechanism for COVID-19 specifically.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:49 am

anstar wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

One would assume that the chips in our e-passports, could simply had additional data written to them? With some special kiosks setup at our airports, that you could get your passport updated on your first departure.
It would seem globally logical to have that information stored on e-passport chip.

I’ve got until December 2029 on my current passport, hopefully don’t have to renew it before then to include covid information.


But that "data" needs to be universal and sent/received in a agreed format. Is there a framework for that? who sets it etc... Sounds simple but how quickly can it be done or is it there today?


IATA are already working on a travel pass
https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/


The first part is reasonably standard, much like Timatic. Gives you information on what you need etc.

The "LAB APP" part seems a bit optimistic. Sounds like it requires labs willingness to send data to IATA or have information available to IATA when requests are submitted.

I don't know if this is "the solution" or one of many solutions. It won't work for land, sea borders as it does for Air. Then there's non IATA airlines etc
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:50 am

Why complicate it with a new process, when the existing one works already? just use the same format as existing serious viruses and diseases as it is no different. The Yellow fever travel booklet just needs a dedicated couple of pages for Covid added, just like they do with Yellow fever and the three rabies shots, with a stamp/sticker with date of vaccine and doctor's name and maybe a QR code, surgery contact in case they want to ask any further questions/corroborate data. Just because it becomes an app or a development for big tech to work on doesn't make it more secure or better, why do you think many countries do not allow important processes like voting to be online, in fact it is easier to manipulate/clone en masse, rather than the stamp that is forged or corrupted on individual documents. A travel card that can be securely stored in an RFID blocking passport holder or wallet is better than an app and still works without wifi or any other advanced/expensive tech that most developing countries won't want to buy.
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NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:27 pm

I think the world will open up quicker so not in 2022 but in the second half of this year. The UK has vaccinated a third of the population now 17 million people. Can see them be at 75 to 85 % by June. The USA will be similar so they can all start to travel freely again and visit NZ etc as long as they have the Passport chip which should be compulsory. Hopefully our rollout can be just as fast as theirs.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:47 am

anstar wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

One would assume that the chips in our e-passports, could simply had additional data written to them? With some special kiosks setup at our airports, that you could get your passport updated on your first departure.
It would seem globally logical to have that information stored on e-passport chip.

I’ve got until December 2029 on my current passport, hopefully don’t have to renew it before then to include covid information.


But that "data" needs to be universal and sent/received in a agreed format. Is there a framework for that? who sets it etc... Sounds simple but how quickly can it be done or is it there today?


IATA are already working on a travel pass
https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/


So it turns out this is the exact option NZ will be embedding in their systems. I'm not sure what happens if a particular health authority doesn't share records with IATA but I suspect it'll be an electronic denial which will revert to manual override if certified documents are provided.

How stringent the border will be on this could I guess vary.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:06 am

NZ516 wrote:
I think the world will open up quicker so not in 2022 but in the second half of this year. The UK has vaccinated a third of the population now 17 million people. Can see them be at 75 to 85 % by June. The USA will be similar so they can all start to travel freely again and visit NZ etc as long as they have the Passport chip which should be compulsory. Hopefully our rollout can be just as fast as theirs.


Depends what we define as open up...

Mass lock downs will hopefully end and more movement will occur globally as year progresses. But I still think it'll be 2022 before "normal" returns whatever that is, our new normal could be renewing your COVID shot each year.

Also I think we'll see Europe, US even parts of Asia have more "open borders" before we're even able to dart off to Australia for a week.

Ultimately what does it mean for us though - our border will remain shut until we have this "heard immunity status" and confidence in the vaccine's endurance. However I question if it will become easier to enter NZ on special circumstances, specialist skills for example with a vaccine passport, negative test with rules being progressively being relaxed over time.

Also will the Vaccine passport be the green light for this elusive "bubble" prior to other countries?

AU have set a target for Oct for all Australians to have been offered a Vaccine, we've set "the end of the year" as a guide. I suspect, we're targeting a similar timeframe. Australia was much more precise in their initial vaccine arrival timeframe while we kept stating first quarter - turns out they were likely shipped to SIN on the same flight as they arrived in the respective countries on the same day.

All in all, I think Jan, Jul and Dec snapshots will all look drastically different if we looked back next year.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2758
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:49 am

Also I think we'll see Europe, US even parts of Asia have more "open borders" before we're even able to dart off to Australia for a week.


As the NSW Premier rightly points out, the whole AU/NZ bubble is in the hands of the Ardern Government with Australia, and NSW particularly, being already open to green-flight bubbles. It remains unclear exactly what Ardern & Co want to see before opening up.

https://7news.com.au/politics/gladys-berejiklian/return-the-favour-nsw-premier-calls-on-ardern-to-open-borders-c-2222193
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:33 am

tullamarine wrote:
Also I think we'll see Europe, US even parts of Asia have more "open borders" before we're even able to dart off to Australia for a week.


As the NSW Premier rightly points out, the whole AU/NZ bubble is in the hands of the Ardern Government with Australia, and NSW particularly, being already open to green-flight bubbles. It remains unclear exactly what Ardern & Co want to see before opening up.

https://7news.com.au/politics/gladys-berejiklian/return-the-favour-nsw-premier-calls-on-ardern-to-open-borders-c-2222193


The cost of lockdowns greatly outweighs the benefit of a bubble. As hard as it is to write, it's the truth. 3 day lock down in AKL alone cost around $100m.

Add on top - soon to be vaccinated border force followed by vaccinations of the general public within 3-4 months.

It's easy to see why the "in control" lead government will take the low risk approach.
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1099
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:05 am

NZ6 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Also I think we'll see Europe, US even parts of Asia have more "open borders" before we're even able to dart off to Australia for a week.


As the NSW Premier rightly points out, the whole AU/NZ bubble is in the hands of the Ardern Government with Australia, and NSW particularly, being already open to green-flight bubbles. It remains unclear exactly what Ardern & Co want to see before opening up.

https://7news.com.au/politics/gladys-berejiklian/return-the-favour-nsw-premier-calls-on-ardern-to-open-borders-c-2222193


The cost of lockdowns greatly outweighs the benefit of a bubble. As hard as it is to write, it's the truth. 3 day lock down in AKL alone cost around $100m.

Add on top - soon to be vaccinated border force followed by vaccinations of the general public within 3-4 months.

It's easy to see why the "in control" lead government will take the low risk approach.


There is a flaw in your logic. You can't assume that the potential community transmission would always come from NSW should NZ open to NSW. As we have seen from the past few months, COVID could come from anywhere.

Opening NZ to NSW is no different from other Australian states opening to NSW. I don't think anyone would argue that any potential lockdown would outweigh the benefits from say opening VIC to NSW.

You may be right that the vaccine rollout is so close so it's pointless to set up protocals for just the next couple of months. The 2 way travel bubble should have been in place long ago.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:09 am

xiaotung wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:

As the NSW Premier rightly points out, the whole AU/NZ bubble is in the hands of the Ardern Government with Australia, and NSW particularly, being already open to green-flight bubbles. It remains unclear exactly what Ardern & Co want to see before opening up.

https://7news.com.au/politics/gladys-berejiklian/return-the-favour-nsw-premier-calls-on-ardern-to-open-borders-c-2222193


The cost of lockdowns greatly outweighs the benefit of a bubble. As hard as it is to write, it's the truth. 3 day lock down in AKL alone cost around $100m.

Add on top - soon to be vaccinated border force followed by vaccinations of the general public within 3-4 months.

It's easy to see why the "in control" lead government will take the low risk approach.


There is a flaw in your logic. You can't assume that the potential community transmission would always come from NSW should NZ open to NSW. As we have seen from the past few months, COVID could come from anywhere.

Opening NZ to NSW is no different from other Australian states opening to NSW. I don't think anyone would argue that any potential lockdown would outweigh the benefits from say opening VIC to NSW.


Not my logic.

You're right it could come from anywhere. So eliminating avenues such as ANY offshore borders is their preferred choice as it seems.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4176
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:18 am

tullamarine wrote:
Also I think we'll see Europe, US even parts of Asia have more "open borders" before we're even able to dart off to Australia for a week.


As the NSW Premier rightly points out, the whole AU/NZ bubble is in the hands of the Ardern Government with Australia, and NSW particularly, being already open to green-flight bubbles. It remains unclear exactly what Ardern & Co want to see before opening up.

https://7news.com.au/politics/gladys-berejiklian/return-the-favour-nsw-premier-calls-on-ardern-to-open-borders-c-2222193


Well we will see in the morning, if Auckland is still an green travel zone to Australia. We just announced another two community cases this evening, on top of the one this afternoon.

Would be expecting an another 72hr travel band from New Zealand, any moment now.
 
Toenga
Posts: 187
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:49 am

I think NZ has been quite open to a "hot spot" approach to opening and closing access between regions/states/ and countries when required. But it has been pushing for a common definition of "hot spot" and prescribed protocols for limiting access into and out of these "hotspots" and prescribed protocols, for repatriation of peoples in and out of "hotspots"
I think in this we have much in common with the bulk of Australian States, in seeking more defininition and commonality of standards to reduce the adhoc measures being imposed every outbreak. With quarantine free travel between NZ and Australia an outbreak could potentially see vast numbers of our people, or theirs, wrongsided. Above the capacities of our respective MIQ facilities.
The state border shambles that occurs every outbreak in Australia, simply does not give sufficient confidence that existing systems and protocols are adequate, Not insurmountable by any means, but "trust us we know what we are doing" is simply insufficient to progress further. Details need to be agreed, even between Australian States, before we should countenance joining them in a common bubble.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:52 am

Toenga wrote:
I think NZ has been quite open to a "hot spot" approach to opening and closing access between regions/states/ and countries when required. But it has been pushing for a common definition of "hot spot" and prescribed protocols for limiting access into and out of these "hotspots" and prescribed protocols, for repatriation of peoples in and out of "hotspots"
I think in this we have much in common with the bulk of Australian States, in seeking more defininition and commonality of standards to reduce the adhoc measures being imposed every outbreak. With quarantine free travel between NZ and Australia an outbreak could potentially see vast numbers of our people, or theirs, wrongsided. Above the capacities of our respective MIQ facilities.
The state border shambles that occurs every outbreak in Australia, simply does not give sufficient confidence that existing systems and protocols are adequate, Not insurmountable by any means, but "trust us we know what we are doing" is simply insufficient to progress further. Details need to be agreed, even between Australian States, before we should countenance joining them in a common bubble.

Exactly. The suggestion that a two-way bubble should have been in place a long time ago ignores the these very significant realities. And I don't see anyone clamoring for urgent lifting of the current restrictions except from the tourism industry (which is surely looking primarily from a self-interested perspective) and from a handful of avgeeks. The rest of the population, by and large, is very comfortable with the "abundance of caution" approach NZ has taken.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:37 pm

So while AIAL reports a (small) profit, airlines report a loss.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:18 pm

Two other notes of interest.

QF: Reported $1.08B loss
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... f6c2cc2ee6

New Zealand and Australia both received their second batch of the pfizer vaccine this week, again on the same day?!?!?!. Makes you wonder if NZ & AU have worked together on their pfizer vaccine purchases. Both batches being delivered on the exactly the same day...

I wonder if the same applies to the other vaccines - will this bring forward our program timeframe. Remember end of the year is all the guidance we've been given but we also know our government doesn't like putting timeframes on things.

Should we be done in Oct like AU is indicating - does this enable some reopening of the border in Spring?
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:44 am

NZ6 wrote:
Two other notes of interest.

QF: Reported $1.08B loss
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... f6c2cc2ee6

New Zealand and Australia both received their second batch of the pfizer vaccine this week, again on the same day?!?!?!. Makes you wonder if NZ & AU have worked together on their pfizer vaccine purchases. Both batches being delivered on the exactly the same day...

I wonder if the same applies to the other vaccines - will this bring forward our program timeframe. Remember end of the year is all the guidance we've been given but we also know our government doesn't like putting timeframes on things.

Should we be done in Oct like AU is indicating - does this enable some reopening of the border in Spring?


They potentially did work together to try and secure some batches of vaccines from Pfizer, which would have made sense.

As for the borders reopening in the Spring, that probably could work for say October school holidays if both Aus and NZ has large proportions of their respective countries vaccinated by then, with maybe a ramp up in travel for summer time?
 
Toenga
Posts: 187
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:52 am

I think Pfizer too are keen to avoid any potential political grandstanding opportunities that could reflect on their brand either side of the Tasman.
 
NZ516
Posts: 617
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:26 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Two other notes of interest.

QF: Reported $1.08B loss
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... f6c2cc2ee6

New Zealand and Australia both received their second batch of the pfizer vaccine this week, again on the same day?!?!?!. Makes you wonder if NZ & AU have worked together on their pfizer vaccine purchases. Both batches being delivered on the exactly the same day...

I wonder if the same applies to the other vaccines - will this bring forward our program timeframe. Remember end of the year is all the guidance we've been given but we also know our government doesn't like putting timeframes on things.

Should we be done in Oct like AU is indicating - does this enable some reopening of the border in Spring?


They potentially did work together to try and secure some batches of vaccines from Pfizer, which would have made sense.

As for the borders reopening in the Spring, that probably could work for say October school holidays if both Aus and NZ has large proportions of their respective countries vaccinated by then, with maybe a ramp up in travel for summer time?


That could work or even earlier if the rollout is faster. We could be welcoming into NZ Vaccinated Americans, Asians and European tourists before then as well.
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:52 am

NZ516 wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Two other notes of interest.

QF: Reported $1.08B loss
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... f6c2cc2ee6

New Zealand and Australia both received their second batch of the pfizer vaccine this week, again on the same day?!?!?!. Makes you wonder if NZ & AU have worked together on their pfizer vaccine purchases. Both batches being delivered on the exactly the same day...

I wonder if the same applies to the other vaccines - will this bring forward our program timeframe. Remember end of the year is all the guidance we've been given but we also know our government doesn't like putting timeframes on things.

Should we be done in Oct like AU is indicating - does this enable some reopening of the border in Spring?


They potentially did work together to try and secure some batches of vaccines from Pfizer, which would have made sense.

As for the borders reopening in the Spring, that probably could work for say October school holidays if both Aus and NZ has large proportions of their respective countries vaccinated by then, with maybe a ramp up in travel for summer time?


That could work or even earlier if the rollout is faster. We could be welcoming into NZ Vaccinated Americans, Asians and European tourists before then as well.


There is definitely potential for all of that happening. Personally I think it'd be Australia and the Islands first, for at least a few months anyways and then they'll only allow fully vaccinated travellers in from Asia, America and Europe after that
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2818
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:39 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Toenga wrote:
I think NZ has been quite open to a "hot spot" approach to opening and closing access between regions/states/ and countries when required. But it has been pushing for a common definition of "hot spot" and prescribed protocols for limiting access into and out of these "hotspots" and prescribed protocols, for repatriation of peoples in and out of "hotspots"
I think in this we have much in common with the bulk of Australian States, in seeking more defininition and commonality of standards to reduce the adhoc measures being imposed every outbreak. With quarantine free travel between NZ and Australia an outbreak could potentially see vast numbers of our people, or theirs, wrongsided. Above the capacities of our respective MIQ facilities.
The state border shambles that occurs every outbreak in Australia, simply does not give sufficient confidence that existing systems and protocols are adequate, Not insurmountable by any means, but "trust us we know what we are doing" is simply insufficient to progress further. Details need to be agreed, even between Australian States, before we should countenance joining them in a common bubble.

Exactly. The suggestion that a two-way bubble should have been in place a long time ago ignores the these very significant realities. And I don't see anyone clamoring for urgent lifting of the current restrictions except from the tourism industry (which is surely looking primarily from a self-interested perspective) and from a handful of avgeeks. The rest of the population, by and large, is very comfortable with the "abundance of caution" approach NZ has taken.


It's funny what perpetual fear does to a population. Makes you blind to the single largest economic driver in New Zealand, for one thing. And cold to those directly impacted by it, because it doesn't impact you and you rather enjoy the vineyards of... Hastings.

All of the pontificating about definitions and standards and whatever else sounds considered ignores the reality that Australia has been open to New Zealand since, what, November? And that's WITH a multitude of hermit kingdoms headed by little Napoleons.

The brief closures Australia has imposed on New Zealand reflect a general lack of confidence in the New Zealand quarantine and track and trace system, with New Zealand officials trying to cover the lack of pinpointing of outbreaks by claiming, without evidence, things like "surface transmission" (remember the frozen meat one? Yeah that went nowhere). And you look at the Auckland Hotel quarantine and "loose" would be a polite description.

So what has the government been doing all this time? Why haven't they bolstered their systems? Plenty of lessons from Australia on how and why you should do so. If these definitions are so critical, why hasn't any progress been made at all? Why can Australia open up without these definitions?

And why is New Zealand taking It's sweet time to kick off vaccinations en masse? Complacency in the face of mutant strains leaking across borders - sounds about right. Australia will have vaccinated about double the population of New Zealand before the long white cloud even gets started on the general public. She'll be right!

Yeah Australia had an outbreak over Christmas. Borders shut and things were brought under control in a third the time it took with previous outbreaks. So we're learning and next time will likely be even better.

Perhaps adopt a buyer beware approach? If borders slam shut for a couple of days or weeks then beware of that - make sure travellers have x amount of dollars they can access to pay for temporary accommodation. Tick. Remote working is standard now for a bunch of professions so another tick. Border opens.

But nah. Cower in fear with a risk appetite of zero and watch the world, and life, go by. Cue the cries of "Won't someone think of the children?!"
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:29 pm

I'm in support of where you're coming from, just a few thoughts however.

aerokiwi wrote:
The brief closures Australia has imposed on New Zealand reflect a general lack of confidence in the New Zealand quarantine and track and trace system, with New Zealand officials trying to cover the lack of pinpointing of outbreaks by claiming, without evidence, things like "surface transmission" (remember the frozen meat one? Yeah that went nowhere). And you look at the Auckland Hotel quarantine and "loose" would be a polite description.

Is it that or is it a reflection of the "panic" and "fear" mentality in the Australian premiers as well? Which is a whole other issue that will be thrashed out in due course at federal level. You've got how many premiers all arguably making federal level decisions on national health security. Closing an international border. In the recent Northland case without any real need. That one case was directly linked to MIQ and there was no known transmission and an electronic record of ALL her movements. I've seen some commentary out of Australia that there's interest at federal level for them to have this authority only .Especially the domestic borders.

aerokiwi wrote:
So what has the government been doing all this time? Why haven't they bolstered their systems? Plenty of lessons from Australia on how and why you should do so. If these definitions are so critical, why hasn't any progress been made at all? Why can Australia open up without these definitions?

Two fold. We're still "learning" to quote Chris Hipkins on how to keep our border secure. Which is really keeping the topic at arms length but also justifying our failures as well. Either way though, what's the point if state by state in Australia will close it down at the sniff of COVID? You could be 30mins from landing and turned back. That happened domestically, recently. Flight left MEL for DRW. On arrival all passengers told they're off to MIQ.

aerokiwi wrote:
And why is New Zealand taking It's sweet time to kick off vaccinations en masse? Complacency in the face of mutant strains leaking across borders - sounds about right. Australia will have vaccinated about double the population of New Zealand before the long white cloud even gets started on the general public. She'll be right!

To be fair, they've got limited stock so administrating it in strategic areas to keep the domestic economy safe.

Could they, should they have ordered more. Should MEDSAFE have approved other vaccines by now.. I don't know. It's too scientific any of us really know what's involved. Nor do we know how the ordering process works. It's safe to say it's not like keep an eye on the website for that elusive grabaseat deal.

I know we hear Israel is setting the standard but putting it out there, would Kiwis have supported this approach?

aerokiwi wrote:
Yeah Australia had an outbreak over Christmas. Borders shut and things were brought under control in a third the time it took with previous outbreaks. So we're learning and next time will likely be even better.

This I think doesn't get the airtime it deserves. We've demonstrated now, both NZ and AU - the ability to ring fence known COVID cases and not be in complete lockdown. Look at today in Auckland.

It's the unexpected cases which raise the alarm bells. How widespread is the issue?

aerokiwi wrote:
But nah. Cower in fear with a risk appetite of zero and watch the world, and life, go by. Cue the cries of "Won't someone think of the children?!"

It's not fear of COVID. It's fear of economic harm.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1812
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:35 pm

NZ516 wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Two other notes of interest.

QF: Reported $1.08B loss
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... f6c2cc2ee6

New Zealand and Australia both received their second batch of the pfizer vaccine this week, again on the same day?!?!?!. Makes you wonder if NZ & AU have worked together on their pfizer vaccine purchases. Both batches being delivered on the exactly the same day...

I wonder if the same applies to the other vaccines - will this bring forward our program timeframe. Remember end of the year is all the guidance we've been given but we also know our government doesn't like putting timeframes on things.

Should we be done in Oct like AU is indicating - does this enable some reopening of the border in Spring?


They potentially did work together to try and secure some batches of vaccines from Pfizer, which would have made sense.

As for the borders reopening in the Spring, that probably could work for say October school holidays if both Aus and NZ has large proportions of their respective countries vaccinated by then, with maybe a ramp up in travel for summer time?


That could work or even earlier if the rollout is faster. We could be welcoming into NZ Vaccinated Americans, Asians and European tourists before then as well.


Not until our rollout is complete.

1) We need 70% of the population administered to get this "heard immunity" status and that's with 90-95% effectiveness (I believe). Then if we opened up before we'd completed our rollout those waiting would be rightly, crying foul that they're at risk

2) Once vaccinated you can still carry the virus, it's just not 100% known how infectious you are. But potentially a yank could bring it here, be safe themselves but give it to our vulnerable.

just hope we're done sooner rather than later.
 
Toenga
Posts: 187
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:36 pm

In reply to aerokiwi,
Granted international tourism has been an important, and growing part of economy, an even larger portion of our economy, then it is to the Australian economy. So people working supplying this section have been heavily disproportionately affected. They need more then just sympathy, they need effective support.
In spite of the importance of the greater tourism to our economy we have actually economically out performed Australia since Covid. The increase in unemployment is more modest, as is the decrease in GDP. Even the reported loss to Air NZ is much more modest then the losses sustained by Qantas, after making allowances for size difference.
We have both very similar throughputs of our MIQ facilities, in absolute terms, so many times the capacity in proportion to our population. Reducing our MIQ throughput to equate to Australia's per head capacity, would have proportionaly reduced our outbreak rate.
Effective covid response planning starts with creating definitions and then developing scenarios and protocols.
Individually the Australian state governments have been very effective at doing this, but interactions between states and Federal Government are untidy.evidenced by the Federal Government for a time, even joining a private legal case against WA's border closures.
It should not be insurmountable to get commonality of definitions and protocols, but the fact, that this has not occurred even between states, and states and the Australian Federal Government shows the problems on the other side of the Tasman.
The Australian Federal formal definition of covid hot spot, being three community cases per day over a rolling three day average, potentially , has been rejected as too liberal and simplistic by all bar NSW. https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-040920
The characteristics of covid, mean the state of keeping community transmission from occuring is a continuing knife edge and the costs of community transmission getting away are just economically and socially horrendous, evidenced by just about every other in the world right now. Increasing risk is only justified if the rewards are absolutely massive. Given the relatively modest effect covid has had to our economy any such potential reward must also be modest.
Britain by prioritising "freedom to do business" in both it's Covid response and Brexit, has suffered about 140000 excess deaths and a GDP decline of just under 10% last year.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4176
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:37 pm

Toenga wrote:
I think Pfizer too are keen to avoid any potential political grandstanding opportunities that could reflect on their brand either side of the Tasman.


I thought the EU was blocking the export of the Pfizer jab? Yet they still seem to be getting stock out to countries not on list of approved export countries. Or did the EU back track on that decision.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:45 pm

It's all so easy to make decisions about borders and Covid from our armchairs. It's all so easy, too, to manage MIQ with 100% security and to lambasted the incompetence of the authorities when something goes wrong. It's incomprehensible that we're not all vaccinated already, too - how easy would that be? I don't know why they haven't employed A-netters in key roles and fixed all these problems permanently.

As I said in a previous post, it mainly seems to be the tourism industry and Avgeeks who think that they could do better. Oh, and a few conspiracy theorists who think the whole thing is a hoax.

Relax, people - life goes on, and we'll soon be able to travel - to some extent at least. Though whether most people will have the appetite to travel remains to be seen. Certainly QF's announcement yesterday doesn't signal that things are expected to come back with a hiss and a roar. Even if there's widespread vaccination by October and borders more or less open.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Toenga
Posts: 187
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:10 am

zkncj wrote:
Toenga wrote:
I think Pfizer too are keen to avoid any potential political grandstanding opportunities that could reflect on their brand either side of the Tasman.


I thought the EU was blocking the export of the Pfizer jab? Yet they still seem to be getting stock out to countries not on list of approved export countries. Or did the EU back track on that decision.


Australia and NZ have received ther Pfizer vaccine from their Belgium manufacturing plant presumably with EU blessing.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1391
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:12 pm

NZ6 wrote:
So while AIAL reports a (small) profit, airlines report a loss.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf


NZ's loss is - IMHO - surprising low. Just look at the Qantas figure! Considering the two airlines' relative size, this is interesting. Seems at face value that NZ have managed things well in the circumstances. I wonder how things are tracking at the moment....

Far from the somewhat pessimistic comments from some on this forum, this could be, perhaps, a sign that NZ is positioning itself well to emerge strong and ready for action.... as global case numbers continue to fall for the third week in a row.
Plane mad!
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:41 pm

NZ321 wrote:
NZ's loss is - IMHO - surprising low. Just look at the Qantas figure! Considering the two airlines' relative size, this is interesting. Seems at face value that NZ have managed things well in the circumstances. I wonder how things are tracking at the moment....

Far from the somewhat pessimistic comments from some on this forum, this could be, perhaps, a sign that NZ is positioning itself well to emerge strong and ready for action.... as global case numbers continue to fall for the third week in a row.

I agree - they've done very well indeed in the circumstances. But if recent statements by QF are to be taken seriously, their insistence they can make do with just 11 789s for their long-haul ops (plus A330s for regional routes) and have no current plans to take on the remaining three which have already been built, suggests that traffic in this part of the world may not rebound as quickly as we might hope.

Global case numbers falling for three weeks in a row is great, but it's hardly a signal to reopen the borders. Although the airlines may be ready and willing to ramp up operations, they will lose even more $$$ unless the market is there. I personally think that the Tasman will rebound relatively quickly (though whether to previous levels remains to be seen). Asia I'm less sure of - both Japan and China have shown themselves in the past to be quite fickle markets. As for the USA, around half of NZ's long-haul ops, I'm much less sure of a rebound to the kinds of levels seen previously, given the extremes of Covid seen there. And I don't think we can assume that a even fully vaccinated New Zealand population will necessarily have the same willingness to visit Covid hotspots as they did pre-pandemic.

Having said that, there are opportunities there too - if they decide to launch EWR while QF is keeping JFK on ice (as it has said they will do for the meantime, even after the resumption of other routes) then they could gain a real competitive advantage.
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:24 pm

NZ321 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
So while AIAL reports a (small) profit, airlines report a loss.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf


NZ's loss is - IMHO - surprising low. Just look at the Qantas figure! Considering the two airlines' relative size, this is interesting. Seems at face value that NZ have managed things well in the circumstances. I wonder how things are tracking at the moment....

Far from the somewhat pessimistic comments from some on this forum, this could be, perhaps, a sign that NZ is positioning itself well to emerge strong and ready for action.... as global case numbers continue to fall for the third week in a row.

QF international makes up a far larger part of their profit than NZ international does. Australia also has different tax laws so QF is definitely front loading their losses (write-downs etc) but are able to use these to offset taxes in future.
New Zealand opened up domestically relatively quickly and without as much disruption whereas each state in Oz did their own thing and of course QF has a stronger domestic competitor.
NZ was able to use the wage subsidy massively to reduce costs while it has effectively gotten rid of 1/4 of its wide body fleet.
Financially overall though QF is still stronger (relative to size) and has over $4B of cash reserves.
I do think that NZ will bounce back strongly though (possibly more so than QF).
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:05 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
It's all so easy to make decisions about borders and Covid from our armchairs. It's all so easy, too, to manage MIQ with 100% security and to lambasted the incompetence of the authorities when something goes wrong. It's incomprehensible that we're not all vaccinated already, too - how easy would that be? I don't know why they haven't employed A-netters in key roles and fixed all these problems permanently.

As I said in a previous post, it mainly seems to be the tourism industry and Avgeeks who think that they could do better. Oh, and a few conspiracy theorists who think the whole thing is a hoax.

Relax, people - life goes on, and we'll soon be able to travel - to some extent at least. Though whether most people will have the appetite to travel remains to be seen. Certainly QF's announcement yesterday doesn't signal that things are expected to come back with a hiss and a roar. Even if there's widespread vaccination by October and borders more or less open.


I'm confused where this has come from?

To your points or grumbles...

It's fair to say there's questions being asked of MIQ and the border measures in place from all angles, there's even debate occurring on if NZ should be building dedicated MIQ facilities outside of AKL. So, I think the "criticism", "questions" and reluctance to accept we have world class, fail proof systems in place goes beyond "a-netters".

I think many in Auckland effected by level 2 and 3 lockdowns would disagree, likewise many of those who can't see family or can't run their business because of an apparent lack of willingness to budge on policy would disagree. Explain to the orchardist why they can't employ seasonal pickers from Pacific, from nations where in some cases, they've never had COVID full stop. They're not even trying to bypass MIQ - it's just no. So it goes beyond "Avgeeks" and tourism. Besides that, what's so unreasonable for those groups to challenge status quo and hold those in power to account for their decisions and ensure we're doing everything we can. I'd challenge it and say, while the approach we've got is working, but so is that of NSW!

I don't think anyone needs to "relax" - there's very little else occurring right now, it's genuinely an interesting debate on what the short term future looks like, when we may complete the vaccination rollout, how and when the border could get relaxed... Seeing as Jacinda has never publicly set a "road map" out of the pandemic what else are we supposed to do? - It does very much seem like we've over the top and on our way out of this mess - just how long will that tail wag..
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:43 pm

NZ321 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
So while AIAL reports a (small) profit, airlines report a loss.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf


NZ's loss is - IMHO - surprising low. Just look at the Qantas figure! Considering the two airlines' relative size, this is interesting. Seems at face value that NZ have managed things well in the circumstances. I wonder how things are tracking at the moment....

Far from the somewhat pessimistic comments from some on this forum, this could be, perhaps, a sign that NZ is positioning itself well to emerge strong and ready for action.... as global case numbers continue to fall for the third week in a row.


I'm expecting the full year results to be much worse. (not just double)

But NZ was able to cut their cost base back quickly, nearly 40% reduction in workforce, 41% of long haul fleet parked up, over 50% if you include the 3 parked up at home.

Government support for Cargo services, along with very strong cargo demand and almost a full half year of strong domestic passenger numbers.

Basically NZ was able to scale back quickly enough and still operated in some key areas generating some passenger and cargo revenue.

Can't comment too much on QF but they've got a much bigger fleet, a domestic market in turmoil with many state borders being closed for long periods during the first half (Victoria for example) and several competitors (VA,REX etc)

Let's also no forget NZ has basically burned away it's rainy day cash
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021

Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:56 am

NZ6 wrote:
.
Government support for Cargo services, along with very strong cargo demand and almost a full half year of strong domestic passenger numbers.


Domestic must be starting todo pretty well, I’ve been looking at some domestic flights for March. It looks like the schedule is almost back to 90-100% of pre-covid during the week. AKL-WLG is now at around 18-20x daily during the week, with some services being a321NEO’s.

I would expect domestic numbers to drop by about 20% if the Pacifica / Australia bubbles open up.

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