The major U.S. publicly traded carriers - meaning everybody except Frontier - publish annual reports with detail on aircraft purchase commitments. The annual reports typically come out in February. Across carriers there are some differences in specificity of reporting, like not clarifying subtype, or of showing fewer years and just aggregating purchases into 'later'. I will return with new posts as more firms release their 10-K filings.

DL leads off the season with its filing dated 2/12/21. I'll go old-school since I can't figure out how to post images.

changes from 12/31/19 to 12/31/20:

A220-100, pushed 3 from 2020 into 2021; pushed 4 from 2020 into 2022

A220-300, cut 2021 from 12 to 5; cut 2022 from 18 to 7; what had been 14 for later than 2022 is now 33

321ceo, deliveries were to have been completed in 2020, now 22 are due this year

321neo, 41 due in 2021 reduced to zero, 40 due in 2022 reduced to 18, what had been 18 due later than 2022 is now 82

330neo, what had been 11 due 2021 is now 3, 8 due 2022 remains 8, what had been 7 for later than 2022 is now 18

A350, 2 for 2021 drop to zero, zero for 2022 becomes 2, what had been 10 for later than 2022 is now 18

A CR9 that was due in 2020 got pushed to 2021

I'll infer they got 29 aircraft (including 5 CR9s) in 2020, down from a planned 72. Total purchase commitments drop from 253 on 12/31/19 to 224 on 12/31/20.

By year: 2021 drops from 66 to 39, 2022 drops from 66 to 39, 49 for later than 2022 becomes 151.

If anybody wants to create a thread for summary changes to active fleet from end '19 to end '20, please do.

It’s going to take a while for passenger numbers to recover to 2019 levels. I mean years to recover. Wouldn’t be surprised if DL pushes back deliveries even farther.

Pretty sure about the following for JetBlue
A321NEO - Originally scheduled to take 11 in 2020, ended up taking 7. 2021 drops from 11 to 6. 2022 drops from 8 to 0.
A321CEO - Originally scheduled 4 on loan for 2020, ended up returning them all
A321LR - 2021 drops from 6 to 3. 2022 drops from 7 to 3
A220 - 2021 delivery increased for 6 to 7. 2022 delivery increased for 8 to 9.

Their fleet grew from 259 to 267 over 2020 and is planning to get to 282 by end of 2021. So no planned retirement.

tphuang wrote:

Pretty sure about the following for JetBlue
A321NEO - Originally scheduled to take 11 in 2020, ended up taking 7. 2021 drops from 11 to 6. 2022 drops from 8 to 0.
A321CEO - Originally scheduled 4 on loan for 2020, ended up returning them all
A321LR - 2021 drops from 6 to 3. 2022 drops from 7 to 3
A220 - 2021 delivery increased for 6 to 7. 2022 delivery increased for 8 to 9.

Their fleet grew from 259 to 267 over 2020 and is planning to get to 282 by end of 2021. So no planned retirement.

Wait, all four of the planned A321 leases ended up as NTU? I wonder what carrier will take them.

MIflyer12 wrote:

DL leads off the season...
changes from 12/31/19 to 12/31/20:
...
321ceo, deliveries were to have been completed in 2020, now 22 are due this year
...
A350, 2 for 2021 drop to zero, zero for 2022 becomes 2, what had been 10 for later than 2022 is now 18

Airbus cuts production on the neo and continues to deliver ceos? A321 on top of that!

Good news for the A350.

Sokes wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

DL leads off the season...
changes from 12/31/19 to 12/31/20:
...
321ceo, deliveries were to have been completed in 2020, now 22 are due this year
...
A350, 2 for 2021 drop to zero, zero for 2022 becomes 2, what had been 10 for later than 2022 is now 18

Airbus cuts production on the neo and continues to deliver ceos? A321 on top of that!

Good news for the A350.

Neo production is not cut, Ceo's are just stored till needed

WN made its filing 2/8/21, actually, beating DL.

WN presents its data differently, and of course is as much a story of MAX delivery interruptions as intentional delays to CAPEX. Rather than showing deferrals in a table pushing out deliveries, WN records firm orders by year but then has a separate table for Contractual Deliveries, and then goes to explain further in the footnotes. 2021 orders include MAXs that didn't get delivered in '19 and '20.

As of 12/31/2020, for 2021, WN shows orders from Boeing for 7 MAX7, 100 MAX8, plus 16 MAX8 from leasing companies -- a total of 123 aircraft. Expected deliveries outlined in the notes total just 35 aircraft, however.

The Company reached an agreement with Boeing in December 2020 to begin taking delivery of the
delayed MAX aircraft, and received seven of these new leased 737 MAX 8 aircraft from third parties in December 2020. Including the seven leased MAX aircraft
received in December 2020, the Company expects to receive 35 MAX 8 deliveries, including 16 leased aircraft, through the end of 2021, instead of the 123 shown
above. The Company continues to be in discussions with Boeing to restructure its delivery schedule for the MAX aircraft. The schedule reflects one contractual
aircraft delivery that shifted from 2019 to 2021.

Southwest's annual report for 2019 (commitments 12/31/19) did not show a Contractual Delivery count for 2021. It had an order total of 45 MAX8s for 2021.

This should be a good thread to see how orders/deliveries play out for 2021

Thanks for the details

In the ann rep DL mentions how much the deferrals slam the brakes on short-term CAPEX:

The restructuring reduced our aircraft purchase commitments by more than $2 billion in 2020 and by more than $5 billion through 2022. The shift in delivery timing is intended to allow us to continue simplifying and modernizing our fleet while maintaining our Airbus order book.

AA released its 10-K dated 2/17/21.

Total purchase commitments - out to '2026 and thereafter' - declined by 46 frames although 69 frames, including E75 and CR9, had been scheduled for 2020. That's got to be a net total of deliveries and cancellations.

Change in purchase commitments by type by year from 12/31/19 to 12/31/20:

A320Neo family

'21 (1)
'22 +1
'23 (3)
'24 unchanged
'25 and beyond +7

MAX

'21 (5)
'22 unchanged
'23 +7
'24 unchanged
'25 and beyond unchanged

787

'21 +9
'22 unchanged
'23 unchanged
'24 unchanged
'25 and beyond unchanged

These type aggregations are AA's, not mine. AA isn't specifying the mix within MAX, Neo, or 787.

Although changes by year seem fairly small (especially compared to DL's hacking), a lot of spending has been pulled from 2021 and 2022. 'Aircraft and engine purchase commitments' in 2025 are 6x 2021 levels,

MIflyer12 wrote:

A350, 2 for 2021 drop to zero, zero for 2022 becomes 2, what had been 10 for later than 2022 is now 18

I'm slightly confused by this, does this mean that Delta ordered 8 new A350s?

canmau wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

A350, 2 for 2021 drop to zero, zero for 2022 becomes 2, what had been 10 for later than 2022 is now 18

I'm slightly confused by this, does this mean that Delta ordered 8 new A350s?

DL was to take over 10 A350 orders from LATAM. Early last year LATAM cancelled 10 A350s and on the same date an unidentified customer ordered 10. Presumably that UFO is DL, or a leasing company that DL made a deal with.

DL was also to acquire several used A350s from LATAM but that part of the deal was cancelled due to Covid.

DL's takeover of ten LATAM A350 orders with Airbus was announced as part of the equity purchase. It took a while (months?) for the ten aircraft to show up in DL orders. That purchase obligation has been showing up in financial notes for some time now.

Yes, separately, DL paid LATAM $62 million not to have to buy 4 used A350s which had also been an element of the equity deal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 18293b3391

Here's one expression of the 10 new/4 used purchase obligations from this year's annual report:

As part of our planned strategic alliance with LATAM, we also assumed 10 of LATAM's A350 purchase commitments with Airbus S.A.S. for
deliveries through 2025. We initially agreed to acquire four A350 aircraft from LATAM but terminated this agreement during 2020.

I just checked again for the UA, AS, and B6 annual reports on the respective carrier SEC filings pages. They're not out yet.

MIflyer12 wrote:

DL's takeover of ten LATAM A350 orders with Airbus was announced as part of the equity purchase. It took a while (months?) for the ten aircraft to show up in DL orders. That purchase obligation has been showing up in financial notes for some time now.

They are still not under DL’s name in Airbus’s order book, with Airbus only listing the original order for 25. As you say though DL acknowledges them in financial reports, but has not made a big PR splash about them for obvious reasons.

UA is in the same boat with some 787s. They ordered 7 787-10s last March under unidentified which are only acknowledged in financial filings.

I also want to add, before the question arises, that DL’s new outlook reflects all 10 of those orders. The 2 A350s that were suppose to arrive this year were suppose to be the final 2 used A350s from LATAM. The +2 in 2022 is from the LATAM takeover order, not deferment of planes due this year.

Polot wrote:

As you say though DL acknowledges them in financial reports, but has not made a big PR splash about them for obvious reasons.

I appreciate your comments but I'm not sure what you mean by that. It's not as if DL can argue that $2 Billion in aircraft purchase commitments are immaterial, to be paid by SkyMiles elite drink vouchers that are sitting around.

The 10 + 4 purchase commitments were listed in the original PR Newswire release dated 9/26/2019, that announced the plan for the equity buy and numerous ancillary spending commitments.

https://www.cnn.com/business/newsfeeds/ ... 86230.html

The ten appear in the annual report's table of purchase commitments as of 12/31/2020, the reference for year-over-year changes in my original post.

There are five references to the agreement to take over ten in the annual report, plus numerous links to DL/Airbus purchase documents for same.

I'm kind of interested in how they are priced: DL prices comparable to DL's first A350 order, or LATAM prices, and the gap between those two. Unless there's a WTO case we probably won't have that disclosed publicly.

MIflyer12 wrote:

Polot wrote:

As you say though DL acknowledges them in financial reports, but has not made a big PR splash about them for obvious reasons.

I appreciate your comments but I'm not sure what you mean by that. It's not as if DL can argue that $2 Billion in aircraft purchase commitments are immaterial, to be paid by SkyMiles elite drink vouchers that are sitting around.

The 10 + 4 purchase commitments were listed in the original PR Newswire release dated 9/26/2019, that announced the plan for the equity buy and numerous ancillary spending commitments.

https://www.cnn.com/business/newsfeeds/ ... 86230.html

The ten appear in the annual report's table of purchase commitments as of 12/31/2020, the reference for year-over-year changes in my original post.

There are five references to the agreement to take over ten in the annual report, plus numerous links to DL/Airbus purchase documents for same.

I'm kind of interested in how they are priced: DL prices comparable to DL's first A350 order, or LATAM prices, and the gap between those two. Unless there's a WTO case we probably won't have that disclosed publicly.

I’m referring to the fact that they are still listed as undisclosed on Airbus’s order book sheet, and DL never gave any PR announcing the deal was complete and 10 A350s officially ordered.

Obviously they are acknowledged in the financial record but most people don’t read those. If the pandemic had not occurred and DL wasn’t losing billions while getting aid from government they would have likely put out a press release announcing the 10 A350s as officially theirs.

lightsaber wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Pretty sure about the following for JetBlue
...
A220 - 2021 delivery increased for 6 to 7. 2022 delivery increased for 8 to 9.

In a sea of differals, that is a nice change. Yes, small, but an increase. I will be very interested to see what other increases occur.

Lightsaber

For sure! I’m guessing B6 are getting a little antsy to start replacing their E190s.

MIflyer12 wrote:

AA released its 10-K dated 2/17/21.

Total purchase commitments - out to '2026 and thereafter' - declined by 46 frames although 69 frames, including E75 and CR9, had been scheduled for 2020. That's got to be a net total of deliveries and cancellations.

Change in purchase commitments by type by year from 12/31/19 to 12/31/20:

A320Neo family

'21 (1)
'22 +1
'23 (3)
'24 unchanged
'25 and beyond +7

MAX

'21 (5)
'22 unchanged
'23 +7
'24 unchanged
'25 and beyond unchanged

787

'21 +9
'22 unchanged
'23 unchanged
'24 unchanged
'25 and beyond unchanged

These type aggregations are AA's, not mine. AA isn't specifying the mix within MAX, Neo, or 787.

Although changes by year seem fairly small (especially compared to DL's hacking), a lot of spending has been pulled from 2021 and 2022. 'Aircraft and engine purchase commitments' in 2025 are 6x 2021 levels,

These press releases might help a little:

• The 320neos are for the A321neos currently being delivered (though I couldn't locate the exact delivery schedule, but this was as close as I could find - http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx)
• All MAXs are for the 737-8 (http://s21.q4cdn.com/616071541/files/im ... 37-MAX.pdf); and
• The 787s are a mix of 788s (22 from 2020 to 2023, I think) and 789s (25 from 2023 onwards) http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

Alaska Air Group published its 10-K today. ALK likes paragraphs instead of charts of purchase commitments.

ALK holds cancellable commitments for thirty A320neo for delivery 2024-2026 and 'at this time, we do not expect to take delivery.' In the prior annual report they stated 'We could incur a loss of pre-delivery payments and credits as a cancellation fee,' so one has to wonder how they played a get-out-of-jail card with Airbus, although they previously listed those for 2023-2025 delivery.

As of December 31, 2020, Alaska had commitments to purchase 32 Boeing 737-9 MAX aircraft with deliveries in 2021 through 2023, contrasting with As of December 31, 2019, we have firm orders to purchase 35 aircraft

And, the incremental MAX order that got lots of ink back when announced:

In December 2020, Alaska announced an agreement in principle with Boeing to restructure the existing aircraft purchase agreement. Upon execution of the
agreement, Alaska will have commitments to purchase an additional 23 737-9 MAX aircraft with deliveries between 2023 and 2024

The thirty E175 options got pushed from 2021-2023 to 2022-2024.

MIflyer12 wrote:

I'm kind of interested in how they are priced: DL prices comparable to DL's first A350 order, or LATAM prices, and the gap between those two. Unless there's a WTO case we probably won't have that disclosed publicly.

Same Here! I mean, I understand that the current pandemic has changed the equation (not only on the supply, but also on the demand sides as well), and with Delta having been such a loyal Airbus customer for the recent past - I wonder, what their pricing and power were here with these aircraft. I get that the 10 (on order, originally for LATAM but cancelled, then 'sold' to a leasing company, for DL) was part of a larger equity deal, however I wonder what the calculation was regarding the used/excess A350s currently at LATAM. In the grand scheme of things, it's not probably likely that DL will need more aircraft in the class soon - however, if they did, I could see that they might be spoiled for choice, and even the benefit of the LATAM transactions, may not shield them from better/other options.

IINM, UA's A350s have been deferred to 2027 (and if DL's similar action on its 788s is predictive, means they likely won't be taken).... but that aside, what variant are they?

They've shunted back and forth between A359 and A35K, but no idea where it sits now. Anyone?

LAX772LR wrote:

IINM, UA's A350s have been deferred to 2027 (and if DL's similar action on its 788s is predictive, means they likely won't be taken).... but that aside, what variant are they?

They've shunted back and forth between A359 and A35K, but no idea where it sits now. Anyone?

UA’ A350 order is now all for A359s.

Still waiting for the UA and B6 annual reports. Last year UA expressed order counts by sub-type simply as current year, and later. Maybe there will be more detail in the notes with respect to deliveries by year, or a specified multi-year delivery range.

United published its 10-K on March 1 with detail of purchase obligations effective 12/31/2020, then promptly torched it with the incremental MAX order, ref'd by Mod qf789 here

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1458279

Commitments 12/31/2020 by type by year, and change from 12/31/2019 without incorporating the new MAX order:

321XLR, all 50 due after 2022 (they were simply noted as due after 2020 in the prior report)

A350, all 45 due after 2022 (they were simply noted as due after 2020 in the prior report)

MAX (see UA note below, verbatim), 21 due 2021, 40 due 2022, 127 due after 2022 (last year's report had 44 due in 2020 and 127 due after 2020)

787, 11 due 2021 (last year's report had 15 due in 2020 and 1 due after 2020)

E175, 4 due 2021 (last year had all 20 due in 2020)

UA's Note on MAX: On February 26, 2021, the Company entered into an agreement with The Boeing Company ("Boeing") for a firm order of 25 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft for delivery in 2023, and to reschedule the delivery of 40 previously ordered Boeing 737 MAX aircraft to 2022 and 5 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft into 2023.

MAX grounding compensation - price reductions when delivered, apparently: The compensation to the Company under the amended and restated settlement agreement is in the form of credit memos to be issued upon the satisfaction of certain conditions related to aircraft deliveries. The Company is accounting for this settlement as a reduction to the cost basis of future firm order Boeing 737 MAX aircraft deliveries and previously-delivered Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which will reduce future depreciation expense associated with these aircraft.

Purchase commitments for used - A319s not staying. In an earlier thread I questioned the economics of used 319s.

United also has an agreement to purchase 11 used Boeing 737-700 aircraft with expected delivery dates in 2021. In addition, United has an agreement to
purchase 17 used Airbus A319 aircraft, which it intends to sell, with expected delivery dates in 2021 and 2022.

UA's gives a table showing some pretty substantial capital commitments in 2021:

The table below summarizes United's commitments as of December 31, 2020 (adjusted to include the effects of the February 26, 2021 agreement with
Boeing), which include aircraft and related spare engines, aircraft improvements and all non-aircraft capital commitments (in billions):

2021 $ 4.9
2022 2.9
2023 2.8
2024 1.6
2025 2.0
After 2025 10.1
total $ 24.3

JetBlue filed its annual report yesterday and this completes the six carriers of my focus. There is some commentary as well as a summary chart.

We may be subject to competitive risks due to the long-term nature of our fleet order book.
At present, we have existing aircraft commitments through 2027. As technological evolution occurs in our industry, through the use of composites and other
innovations, we may be competitively disadvantaged because we have existing extensive fleet commitments that would prohibit us from adopting new technologies on
an expedited basis.

As of December 31, 2020, we had commitments of approximately $8.2 billion to purchase 141 additional aircraft and related flight equipment through 2027,
including estimated amounts for contractual price escalations and pre-delivery deposits.

during the year ended December 31, 2020, the Company recorded impairment charges of $273 million associated with its E190 fleet due to COVID-19

As of December 31, 2020, options for 50 additional A220-300 aircraft deliveries remain available to us and we retain the flexibility to convert certain aircraft to
the A220-100 model. Both members of the A220 family share commonality in more than 99 percent of their replaceable parts and utilize the same family of engines.

commitments 12/31/2020 and 12/31/2019:

321neo

2021, 8 down from 17

2022, 3 down from 15

2023, 11 down from 14

2024, 13 up from 12

2025, 11 up from zero

2026, 12 up from zero

2027, 14 up from zero

A220

2021, 7 up from 6

2022, 8 unchanged

2023, 19 unchanged

2024, 22 unchanged

2025 12 unchanged

2026 1 down from 2

MIflyer12 wrote:

Alaska Air Group published its 10-K today. ALK likes paragraphs instead of charts of purchase commitments.

ALK holds cancellable commitments for thirty A320neo for delivery 2024-2026 and 'at this time, we do not expect to take delivery.' In the prior annual report they stated 'We could incur a loss of pre-delivery payments and credits as a cancellation fee,' so one has to wonder how they played a get-out-of-jail card with Airbus, although they previously listed those for 2023-2025 delivery.

Leehamnews.com states in the article below that Alaska believes that the deposit of USD15M is not recoverable. There seems to be no get-out-of-jail card on this one. https://leehamnews.com/2021/03/01/hotr- ... h-737-max/

majano wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Alaska Air Group published its 10-K today. ALK likes paragraphs instead of charts of purchase commitments.

ALK holds cancellable commitments for thirty A320neo for delivery 2024-2026 and 'at this time, we do not expect to take delivery.' In the prior annual report they stated 'We could incur a loss of pre-delivery payments and credits as a cancellation fee,' so one has to wonder how they played a get-out-of-jail card with Airbus, although they previously listed those for 2023-2025 delivery.

Leehamnews.com states in the article below that Alaska believes that the deposit of USD15M is not recoverable. There seems to be no get-out-of-jail card on this one. https://leehamnews.com/2021/03/01/hotr- ... h-737-max/

The fact that it was VX that spent that $15 million and not AS makes it an easier pill to swallow though. AS is just not going to get money back that somebody else paid.

Polot wrote:

majano wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Alaska Air Group published its 10-K today. ALK likes paragraphs instead of charts of purchase commitments.

ALK holds cancellable commitments for thirty A320neo for delivery 2024-2026 and 'at this time, we do not expect to take delivery.' In the prior annual report they stated 'We could incur a loss of pre-delivery payments and credits as a cancellation fee,' so one has to wonder how they played a get-out-of-jail card with Airbus, although they previously listed those for 2023-2025 delivery.

Leehamnews.com states in the article below that Alaska believes that the deposit of USD15M is not recoverable. There seems to be no get-out-of-jail card on this one. https://leehamnews.com/2021/03/01/hotr- ... h-737-max/

The fact that it was VX that spent that $15 million and not AS makes it an easier pill to swallow though. AS is just not going to get money back that somebody else paid.

I would assume AS brought the deposit that VX had paid onto its own books as an asset after it settled for the purchase of VX. If that is the case, that asset now has to be written off though, given the sagas of 2020, $15M is a drop in the ocean.