Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:56 pm

SA280 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Jungleneer wrote:
Geez, chill down.

Here are the numbers:
E195-E2 single class high density: 146 seats
E195-E2 standard single class: 132 seats (KLM has 134 and Azul 136)
https://www.embraercommercialaviation.c ... rcial-jet/

E190-E1 which is the same as E2:
114 seats high density
100 seats typical single class

https://www.embraercommercialaviation.c ... jets/e190/


How do you compare 1 aircraft with 29-30 inch pitch in HD vs another one at 28 inch pitch? It's nonsense. You reduce the first one's pitch down to 28 inch, then you can fit in another 8 seats.

That HD E2-195 configuration is provided by Embraer as a sales pitch config that no airline in the real world will actually use.

Tap, Iberia, Ryanair, Wizz Air. All of them are already used to 28" pitch. And it is a matter of time before other airlines adopt it, at least in European economy class.

There might be no sales ever for the full high-density configuration with 146 seats, but it shows there are intermediate alternatives between Azul's very comfy 136-seats and this high-density one.

And as the A220-300 is certified for maximum 145, depending on the configuration requirements, A220-300's claimed seat cost advantage would eventually disappear or even become worse than the E195-E2.

Just a point of parliamentary procedure, the A220-300 could be certified to 160 at 28". They need a customer.

But currently certified 145:
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/passeng ... 0-300.html

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... next-level

That said, the E2-195 at 146 seats is a good economic choice.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:59 pm

tphuang wrote:

For a simple comparison, take a look at azul. Yes, while I'm not Brazilian, I have flown Azul before!
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Azul_ ... er_195.php
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Azul_ ... er_190.php
just 12 more seats on E95 vs E90

How is E2 going to add 28 more seats upon the aircraft its replacing?

The E195E2 is not the same length as the E195(E1?)…
 
tphuang
Posts: 6609
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 5:03 pm

SA280 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Jungleneer wrote:
Geez, chill down.

Here are the numbers:
E195-E2 single class high density: 146 seats
E195-E2 standard single class: 132 seats (KLM has 134 and Azul 136)
https://www.embraercommercialaviation.c ... rcial-jet/

E190-E1 which is the same as E2:
114 seats high density
100 seats typical single class

https://www.embraercommercialaviation.c ... jets/e190/


How do you compare 1 aircraft with 29-30 inch pitch in HD vs another one at 28 inch pitch? It's nonsense. You reduce the first one's pitch down to 28 inch, then you can fit in another 8 seats.

That HD E2-195 configuration is provided by Embraer as a sales pitch config that no airline in the real world will actually use.

Tap, Iberia, Ryanair, Wizz Air. All of them are already used to 28" pitch. And it is a matter of time before other airlines adopt it, at least in European economy class.

There might be no sales ever for the full high-density configuration with 146 seats, but it shows there are intermediate alternatives between Azul's very comfy 136-seats and this high-density one.

And as the A220-300 is certified for maximum 145, depending on the configuration requirements, A220-300's claimed seat cost advantage would eventually disappear or even become worse than the E195-E2.


you are not comparing apples to apples. There is nothing stopping A220-300 from being certified for more than 150 seat (I'm not even sure what you are saying here is accurate, this is the first I've heard of it).

In fact, Airbus advertises 160 seat in single class layout
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/passeng ... 0-300.html

The reality is that A220-300's floor area could allow 150 seats at 30 to 31 inch in pitch and 160 seats at 28 inch in pitch. It's just a larger aircraft. None of these sales pitches or finessing changes that fact.

Why A220 numbers should improve more than E2's considering the first is a much more mature program while the last is on a EIS stage?


have you been following this thread at all? more operators/aircraft -> more spare parts, MRO providers, upgrade programs, subystem providers and bigger used markets.

just as important, it has already achieved very high reliability and high utilization which really cuts down on the cost.

Think about why would B6 chose A220 over E2 when it already operates embraer and has to fork out major $ in its fleet transition program.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 5:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
SA280 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

How do you compare 1 aircraft with 29-30 inch pitch in HD vs another one at 28 inch pitch? It's nonsense. You reduce the first one's pitch down to 28 inch, then you can fit in another 8 seats.

That HD E2-195 configuration is provided by Embraer as a sales pitch config that no airline in the real world will actually use.

Tap, Iberia, Ryanair, Wizz Air. All of them are already used to 28" pitch. And it is a matter of time before other airlines adopt it, at least in European economy class.

There might be no sales ever for the full high-density configuration with 146 seats, but it shows there are intermediate alternatives between Azul's very comfy 136-seats and this high-density one.

And as the A220-300 is certified for maximum 145, depending on the configuration requirements, A220-300's claimed seat cost advantage would eventually disappear or even become worse than the E195-E2.


you are not comparing apples to apples. There is nothing stopping A220-300 from being certified for more than 150 seat (I'm not even sure what you are saying here is accurate, this is the first I've heard of it).

In fact, Airbus advertises 160 seat in single class layout
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/passeng ... 0-300.html

The reality is that A220-300's floor area could allow 150 seats at 30 to 31 inch in pitch and 160 seats at 28 inch in pitch. It's just a larger aircraft. None of these sales pitches or finessing changes that fact.

Why A220 numbers should improve more than E2's considering the first is a much more mature program while the last is on a EIS stage?


have you been following this thread at all? more operators/aircraft -> more spare parts, MRO providers, upgrade programs, subystem providers and bigger used markets.

just as important, it has already achieved very high reliability and high utilization which really cuts down on the cost.

Think about why would B6 chose A220 over E2 when it already operates embraer and has to fork out major $ in its fleet transition program.

As stated the A223 is currently certified for a maximum of 145 passengers. See https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... e%2014.pdf

The plane can physically fit more but another set of over wing exits needs to be added. That’s not particularly difficult though, especially as looking at the window spacing it looks like a planned 2nd set was baked into the design. Airbus just needs customers for it before they are going to spend the money to do that.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 5:25 pm

Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 5:43 pm

Polot wrote:
....

As stated the A223 is currently certified for a maximum of 145 passengers. See https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... e%2014.pdf

The plane can physically fit more but another set of over wing exits needs to be added. That’s not particularly difficult though, especially as looking at the window spacing it looks like a planned 2nd set was baked into the design. Airbus just needs customers for it before they are going to spend the money to do that.


What? The E195-E2 maximum passenger capacity is 146.
According to this:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... df#page=35

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.
 
Jetport
Posts: 303
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 5:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
Jungleneer wrote:
Jetport wrote:

You are correct, Jungleneer must have meant cost per trip or fuel burn per trip. Hey, I agree with tphuang, I should play the lottery!

Link below shows some fuel burn numbers, a lot of it doesn't make sense and seat counts are often apples to oranges comparisons. Information is also very old.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_aircraft


Yeah, you maybe right. I am using my memory here, because I don’t have subscription anymore.

Oh, and remember that the E195-E2 can carry almost 40 seats more than E190 in high density.


Please show the actual text of what you read. E2-195 cannot carry 40 seat more than E90 in high density. That is nonsense.

For a simple comparison, take a look at azul. Yes, while I'm not Brazilian, I have flown Azul before!
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Azul_ ... er_195.php
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Azul_ ... er_190.php
just 12 more seats on E95 vs E90

How is E2 going to add 28 more seats upon the aircraft its replacing?

IIRC, leeham analysis came out to be E2-195 had lower CASM than A220-100, but higher CASM than A220-300. That would make sense since the lower seat count aircraft has higher CASM. In reality and based on the current state of A220 program vs E2, I'd be surprised if A220 cost has not improved vs E2 since that analysis was done.


Just to make sure everyone is aware, the E195E2 grew three seat rows from the E195 (2.85 m/9.4 ft) in length. So you have 12 more seats just on the E195E2 vs. the original E195 in identical layouts.
 
Jetport
Posts: 303
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 6:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
SA280 wrote:

Why A220 numbers should improve more than E2's considering the first is a much more mature program while the last is on a EIS stage?


have you been following this thread at all? more operators/aircraft -> more spare parts, MRO providers, upgrade programs, subystem providers and bigger used markets.

just as important, it has already achieved very high reliability and high utilization which really cuts down on the cost.

Think about why would B6 chose A220 over E2 when it already operates embraer and has to fork out major $ in its fleet transition program.


I can think of 2 possible reasons why B6 chose the A220 over the E2:
1. B6 really wanted the longer range or the A220. Unlikely the deciding factor since there will be a low single digit percentage of flights that need the extra range.
2. Airbus sold them at a big loss, while Embraer wouldn't go there. This is most likely what happened, since Airbus admits they are losing money on every delivery. This is why Delta ordered so many, Crazy Eddy pricing (Prices so low we're practically giving them away!).
 
tphuang
Posts: 6609
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 6:51 pm

Jetport wrote:
tphuang wrote:
SA280 wrote:



have you been following this thread at all? more operators/aircraft -> more spare parts, MRO providers, upgrade programs, subystem providers and bigger used markets.

just as important, it has already achieved very high reliability and high utilization which really cuts down on the cost.

Think about why would B6 chose A220 over E2 when it already operates embraer and has to fork out major $ in its fleet transition program.


I can think of 2 possible reasons why B6 chose the A220 over the E2:
1. B6 really wanted the longer range or the A220. Unlikely the deciding factor since there will be a low single digit percentage of flights that need the extra range.
2. Airbus sold them at a big loss, while Embraer wouldn't go there. This is most likely what happened, since Airbus admits they are losing money on every delivery. This is why Delta ordered so many, Crazy Eddy pricing (Prices so low we're practically giving them away!).


Embraer would've sold E2 to them at a big loss too. The earliest orders for new aircraft programs are always sold at big losses. How do you think Embraer got B6 to sign onto E90 when nobody else in north america ordered it?

Once you get enough orders and time to improve your production line, the production costs will come down. Of course, once there are enough aircraft in service, the direct operating cost will also come down due to lower maintenance cost and higher reliability. At that time, you can also charge more. That's how A320 and B737 are so profitable now. You don't get to profitability without volume.

Btw, I'm saying this as someone who thought E2 made more sense than A220 for B6 at the time. In the end, B6 went for the more expensive option. Even if you don't believe E2 was offered at a lower price than A220, the additional fleet transition cost would've made A220 the more expensive aircraft.
 
SA280
Posts: 76
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:18 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
Jetport wrote:
tphuang wrote:


I can think of 2 possible reasons why B6 chose the A220 over the E2:
1. B6 really wanted the longer range or the A220. Unlikely the deciding factor since there will be a low single digit percentage of flights that need the extra range.
2. Airbus sold them at a big loss, while Embraer wouldn't go there. This is most likely what happened, since Airbus admits they are losing money on every delivery. This is why Delta ordered so many, Crazy Eddy pricing (Prices so low we're practically giving them away!).


Embraer would've sold E2 to them at a big loss too. The earliest orders for new aircraft programs are always sold at big losses. How do you think Embraer got B6 to sign onto E90 when nobody else in north america ordered it?

Once you get enough orders and time to improve your production line, the production costs will come down. Of course, once there are enough aircraft in service, the direct operating cost will also come down due to lower maintenance cost and higher reliability. At that time, you can also charge more. That's how A320 and B737 are so profitable now. You don't get to profitability without volume.

Btw, I'm saying this as someone who thought E2 made more sense than A220 for B6 at the time. In the end, B6 went for the more expensive option. Even if you don't believe E2 was offered at a lower price than A220, the additional fleet transition cost would've made A220 the more expensive aircraft.

The absence of mid-con hubs on B6 network, with operations relying on coastal focus cities with lots of transcon opportunities make the case strong for the A220. It's one of few sales campaigns where A220's extra range really makes a difference

Embraer had lower transition cost to offer (and might have relied too much on this). Airbus had the extras range. Pricing has definitely been critical for the deal.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6609
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:57 pm

SA280 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Jetport wrote:

I can think of 2 possible reasons why B6 chose the A220 over the E2:
1. B6 really wanted the longer range or the A220. Unlikely the deciding factor since there will be a low single digit percentage of flights that need the extra range.
2. Airbus sold them at a big loss, while Embraer wouldn't go there. This is most likely what happened, since Airbus admits they are losing money on every delivery. This is why Delta ordered so many, Crazy Eddy pricing (Prices so low we're practically giving them away!).


Embraer would've sold E2 to them at a big loss too. The earliest orders for new aircraft programs are always sold at big losses. How do you think Embraer got B6 to sign onto E90 when nobody else in north america ordered it?

Once you get enough orders and time to improve your production line, the production costs will come down. Of course, once there are enough aircraft in service, the direct operating cost will also come down due to lower maintenance cost and higher reliability. At that time, you can also charge more. That's how A320 and B737 are so profitable now. You don't get to profitability without volume.

Btw, I'm saying this as someone who thought E2 made more sense than A220 for B6 at the time. In the end, B6 went for the more expensive option. Even if you don't believe E2 was offered at a lower price than A220, the additional fleet transition cost would've made A220 the more expensive aircraft.

The absence of mid-con hubs on B6 network, with operations relying on coastal focus cities with lots of transcon opportunities make the case strong for the A220. It's one of few sales campaigns where A220's extra range really makes a difference

Embraer had lower transition cost to offer (and might have relied too much on this). Airbus had the extras range. Pricing has definitely been critical for the deal.


So far, every A220 route they've added are under 1100 nm. Most of them are in the 800 to 1000 nm range where E2 is apparently quite competitive with A220.

Embraer fans at some point have to drop the A220 loses a lot of money pitch. E2 needed the B6 sale just as much as A220 did. B6 would've also gotten great pricing from Embraer if they had picked E2. And, they would be dealing with no new fleet type and lower transition cost.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:04 pm

VV wrote:
Polot wrote:
....

As stated the A223 is currently certified for a maximum of 145 passengers. See https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... e%2014.pdf

The plane can physically fit more but another set of over wing exits needs to be added. That’s not particularly difficult though, especially as looking at the window spacing it looks like a planned 2nd set was baked into the design. Airbus just needs customers for it before they are going to spend the money to do that.


What? The E195-E2 maximum passenger capacity is 146.
According to this:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... df#page=35

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.

I agree it will take a customer who wants 160 seats. Thank you for pointing out the physical feature that must change and how it is already planned.

This is drawing updates and the a certification application. Easy, but it still costs effort (and thus money).

So 160 vs. 146.

It is the A220 currently maximum of 145.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7413
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:13 pm

Babyshark wrote:
astuteman wrote:

As an observation, in September 2015,
the A320NEO had 3,312 orders
the A321NEO had 1,052 orders

http://pdxlight.com/neomax.htm

Today, almost 6 years later...
the A320NEO had 3,853 orders
the A321NEO had 3,543 orders

So in a smidge short of 6 years,
the A320NEO has gained 541 net orders
the A321NEO had gained 2,491 net orders

I the same timeframe the A220 has gained 408 orders - not far at all behind the A320NEO

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A2 ... deliveries

So whilst the NEO family is in a strong position, the A320NEO has not actually gone all that well in the last 6 years.
As has been suggested for the A220, one wonders if Airbus are looking to maximise the high value A321's on the line at the expense of A320's


Who knows?

Rgds


First I am showing 1069 net orders from 2017 to 2021 for the 320N? idk. Also, the first order for the 220 was "648" orders and 164 delivered in 13 years. Not 6.

Either way, 3800 is a ton of orders, 11K combined between 320/321/73M in short order. Maybe airlines mostly had filled their needs?


I picked the last 6 years for both types to illustrate the trend, and to show that its possible that the A320NEO is no longer as popular as it once was, that crown going to the A321NEO.
Where are you "showing" 1069 net orders from? Wiki?
I'm assuming you missed a whole slew of conversions from A320 to A321 in the last few years. Wiki have.
I tracked the NEO orders closely over the first few years.
The PDXlite figures were correct.

No matter. It was a bit of idle speculation to show that there may be other futures out there ... :)

Rgds
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:19 pm

VV wrote:

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.

To be honest I don’t see Airbus doing it until the A225 is launched.

The issue with the A220 for heavy single class density is that those are usually operated by ULCCs. And that poses a problem because that means the ULCC is currently maxed out at ~160 seats (only 10 more than the 150 threshold requiring another FA) before they now have to add another type that complicates their operations and raises costs. Assuming you can fill the seats a 200-240 seat 737 Max 200-Max 10 and A320neo-A321neo is very cost effective against a 160 seat A223.

For that reason at the moment I don’t see much interest in the A220 among those carriers.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:
VV wrote:
Polot wrote:
....

As stated the A223 is currently certified for a maximum of 145 passengers. See https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... e%2014.pdf

The plane can physically fit more but another set of over wing exits needs to be added. That’s not particularly difficult though, especially as looking at the window spacing it looks like a planned 2nd set was baked into the design. Airbus just needs customers for it before they are going to spend the money to do that.


What? The E195-E2 maximum passenger capacity is 146.
According to this:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... df#page=35

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.

I agree it will take a customer who wants 160 seats. Thank you for pointing out the physical feature that must change and how it is already planned.

This is drawing updates and the a certification application. Easy, but it still costs effort (and thus money).

So 160 vs. 146.

It is the A220 currently maximum of 145.

Lightsaber


No. Currently it is 145 for A220-300 vs 146 for E195-E2.

That's scary!
 
9252fly
Posts: 1202
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:19 am

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:29 pm

Polot wrote:
VV wrote:

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.

To be honest I don’t see Airbus doing it until the A225 is launched.


I wonder how many seats a hypothetical A225 could have in an ULCC configuration?
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:49 pm

9252fly wrote:
Polot wrote:
VV wrote:

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.

To be honest I don’t see Airbus doing it until the A225 is launched.


I wonder how many seats a hypothetical A225 could have in an ULCC configuration?

Depends on the size of the aircraft. Assuming ~180-190 seats similar to A320.
 
SA280
Posts: 76
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:18 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 10:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:
VV wrote:
Polot wrote:
....

As stated the A223 is currently certified for a maximum of 145 passengers. See https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... e%2014.pdf

The plane can physically fit more but another set of over wing exits needs to be added. That’s not particularly difficult though, especially as looking at the window spacing it looks like a planned 2nd set was baked into the design. Airbus just needs customers for it before they are going to spend the money to do that.


What? The E195-E2 maximum passenger capacity is 146.
According to this:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... df#page=35

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.

I agree it will take a customer who wants 160 seats. Thank you for pointing out the physical feature that must change and how it is already planned.

This is drawing updates and the a certification application. Easy, but it still costs effort (and thus money).

So 160 vs. 146.

It is the A220 currently maximum of 145.

Lightsaber

There might be some reasons why BBD has never certified the 160 seater with extra pair of emergency exits.

Firstly, the cabin apparently come to an all 28" pitch in economy class, except the emergency exit seats. Too disruptive to imagine few rows at 28" by the time the aircraft was launched, what to say about the whole aircraft!

Secondly, even nowadays the airlines that offer 28" in economy or intend to do so also offer some seats in the front with extra legroom (30" to 33"). So, worsening overall product is a way to drive unit costs down aiming at very price sensitive passengers and also helps to drive ancillary revenue up from passengers that pay extra for small improvement in service.

That makes the 160-seater quite unbelievable. A 155-seater would address the demand segmentation issue, with one row axed for extra leg room in the front. But do those 5 extra seats pay for the extra flight attendant? I don't think so.

But let's assume that somewhere in the world there is an ULCC airline looking for a small narrowbody to be deployed on very thin markets (I don't believe that airline exist nowadays). Then we would have the A223 with 160 seats competing with the E295 with 146 seats. Even in this case I think the E2 ends up with the lowest unit cost, as it does not require a 4th flight attendant like the A223.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6609
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 10:29 pm

SA280 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
VV wrote:

What? The E195-E2 maximum passenger capacity is 146.
According to this:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... df#page=35

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.

I agree it will take a customer who wants 160 seats. Thank you for pointing out the physical feature that must change and how it is already planned.

This is drawing updates and the a certification application. Easy, but it still costs effort (and thus money).

So 160 vs. 146.

It is the A220 currently maximum of 145.

Lightsaber

There might be some reasons why BBD has never certified the 160 seater with extra pair of emergency exits.

Firstly, the cabin apparently come to an all 28" pitch in economy class, except the emergency exit seats. Too disruptive to imagine few rows at 28" by the time the aircraft was launched, what to say about the whole aircraft!

Secondly, even nowadays the airlines that offer 28" in economy or intend to do so also offer some seats in the front with extra legroom (30" to 33"). So, worsening overall product is a way to drive unit costs down aiming at very price sensitive passengers and also helps to drive ancillary revenue up from passengers that pay extra for small improvement in service.

That makes the 160-seater quite unbelievable. A 155-seater would address the demand segmentation issue, with one row axed for extra leg room in the front. But do those 5 extra seats pay for the extra flight attendant? I don't think so.

But let's assume that somewhere in the world there is an ULCC airline looking for a small narrowbody to be deployed on very thin markets (I don't believe that airline exist nowadays). Then we would have the A223 with 160 seats competing with the E295 with 146 seats. Even in this case I think the E2 ends up with the lowest unit cost, as it does not require a 4th flight attendant like the A223.


For direct operating cost, about 40% of that is fuel cost based on the numbers B6 published for E90 and A220. Of the remaining 60%, the large portion of that is all the ground handling, gate agents, maintenance, parking, landing fees and other fixed cost. Let's say onboard crewmember is 25% of the direct operating cost, what portion of that are pilot wages and what portion of that are FA wages? I'd be surprised if the additional FA is more than 2 to 3% of the direct operating cost. That's not enough to move the needle here.

More importantly, 160 seat A220-300 configuration has not been required in any competition thus far. Which means, the demand for that and the 146 seat E2-95 is close to 0.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 10:55 pm

SA280 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
VV wrote:

What? The E195-E2 maximum passenger capacity is 146.
According to this:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... df#page=35

Airbus Canada needs to do the second overwing exit door.

I agree it will take a customer who wants 160 seats. Thank you for pointing out the physical feature that must change and how it is already planned.

This is drawing updates and the a certification application. Easy, but it still costs effort (and thus money).

So 160 vs. 146.

It is the A220 currently maximum of 145.

Lightsaber

There might be some reasons why BBD has never certified the 160 seater with extra pair of emergency exits.

Firstly, the cabin apparently come to an all 28" pitch in economy class, except the emergency exit seats. Too disruptive to imagine few rows at 28" by the time the aircraft was launched, what to say about the whole aircraft!

Secondly, even nowadays the airlines that offer 28" in economy or intend to do so also offer some seats in the front with extra legroom (30" to 33"). So, worsening overall product is a way to drive unit costs down aiming at very price sensitive passengers and also helps to drive ancillary revenue up from passengers that pay extra for small improvement in service.

That makes the 160-seater quite unbelievable. A 155-seater would address the demand segmentation issue, with one row axed for extra leg room in the front. But do those 5 extra seats pay for the extra flight attendant? I don't think so.

But let's assume that somewhere in the world there is an ULCC airline looking for a small narrowbody to be deployed on very thin markets (I don't believe that airline exist nowadays). Then we would have the A223 with 160 seats competing with the E295 with 146 seats. Even in this case I think the E2 ends up with the lowest unit cost, as it does not require a 4th flight attendant like the A223.

If an airline is considering the 146 seat E2-195, Airbus will offer the A223 in 160 seats. If Embraer wins a few orders in a row, we will know. 10 seats is enough to pay for the 4th FA. 5 seats is not.

Easyjet and Cebu Pacific had 156 seats on the A319. Easyjet would remove seat cushions to revert to 3 FA during slow times I recall (going from memory).

I'm glad for the Porter order. I was wondering wht the E2-195 wasn't selling better (I've always believed the E2-195 would outsell the E2-190 as few can make the new expensive engine pay with less room).

Now, MAX 200 vs A223 vs. high density A320/321NEO is interesting.

JetBlue, AC, and AirFrance had more commonality and for some reason chose the A220 despite having E-jet knowledge/commonality. Delta chose the A221/A223 in head to head when Techops services E175.

While we enthusiasts get into details, I see this as a transition year with only a few potential mid-size orders for the A220, ALC having their 15 placed, and no large order (150+) on the horizon.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 9:32 am

lightsaber wrote:
...
If an airline is considering the 146 seat E2-195, Airbus will offer the A223 in 160 seats. If Embraer wins a few orders in a row, we will know. 10 seats is enough to pay for the 4th FA. 5 seats is not.
...


So you think Airbus Canada would be willing to develop and certify the second overwing emergency exit door when they are still losing money until 2025 or so and they need to finance themselves just because an airline considers 146 seats on the E195-E2?
It is an interesting thought.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:48 am

VV wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
...
If an airline is considering the 146 seat E2-195, Airbus will offer the A223 in 160 seats. If Embraer wins a few orders in a row, we will know. 10 seats is enough to pay for the 4th FA. 5 seats is not.
...


So you think Airbus Canada would be willing to develop and certify the second overwing emergency exit door when they are still losing money until 2025 or so and they need to finance themselves just because an airline considers 146 seats on the E195-E2?
It is an interesting thought.

Airbus will offer. They won’t actually go through with it unless customer pulls the trigger (and it is a significantly high enough volume or price to make it worthwhile).
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:00 am

According to the following article the A220 in Air France's configuration will have 149 seats.
https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... september/
Air France’s A220s will be configured with 149 seats in a 3-2 layout, and the aircraft will offer inflight wifi connectivity.

And the following.
https://www.airfranceklm.com/sites/defa ... pdf#page=2

It means the TCDS we looked into in the above comment is not valid any more.
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... df#page=21
19. Maximum Aircraft Occupants
153 (including 1 Pilot, 1 Co-pilot, 1 Observer, a minimum of 3 Cabin Crew and a maximum of 145
Passengers)


Perhaps the certification for higher than 145 passengers is already in progress.

The range mentioned in the brochure is quite interesting.
https://www.airfranceklm.com/sites/defa ... pdf#page=2

It says in French "Un rayon d'action de plus de 2300 miles nautique" or "A range of more than 2,300 nautical miles".
It is not a mistake because it says "more than 2,300 nm". It could be 3,400 nm or 2,500 nm or else.
 
SA280
Posts: 76
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:18 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:13 am

The number of seats on-board not always reflect available capacity.

Air Baltic's are 148Y, however they've been blocking 3 seats since they took delivery in 2016. It's been quite a while for an "in-progress" certification.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:15 am

SA280 wrote:
The number of seats on-board not always reflect available capacity.

Air Baltic's are 148Y, however they've been blocking 3 seats since they took delivery in 2016. It's been quite a while for an "in-progress" certification.


Are the 3 extra seats for flight attendants?

How can an airline be happy carrying three empty seats around since so many years?
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:31 am

SA280 wrote:
The number of seats on-board not always reflect available capacity.

Air Baltic's are 148Y, however they've been blocking 3 seats since they took delivery in 2016. It's been quite a while for an "in-progress" certification.

And AF’s A220s will have some blocked middle seats up front for business class.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:43 am

Polot wrote:
SA280 wrote:
The number of seats on-board not always reflect available capacity.

Air Baltic's are 148Y, however they've been blocking 3 seats since they took delivery in 2016. It's been quite a while for an "in-progress" certification.

And AF’s A220s will have some blocked middle seats up front for business class.


And carry them around empty on every single flight?
What the hell?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6609
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:59 am

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Air_B ... 20-300.php
it seems like AirBaltic is just using the block middle seat methodology for those first 2 rows like a euro business.

If certifying for more than 145 seat is a big deal, I'm sure it would've been done by now.


Anyhow, back to the main topic. Discussion on B6 thread indicates that near term A220 delivery slots out of Mobile are all taken up. I'm not too surprised given its ramp up and the number of orders from B6/DL/MX.

It seems to me that could be a hindrance for A220 sales effort. They are probably not pushing as hard in pricing as they were before the B6/MX orders.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 12:01 pm

VV wrote:
Polot wrote:
SA280 wrote:
The number of seats on-board not always reflect available capacity.

Air Baltic's are 148Y, however they've been blocking 3 seats since they took delivery in 2016. It's been quite a while for an "in-progress" certification.

And AF’s A220s will have some blocked middle seats up front for business class.


And carry them around empty on every single flight?
What the hell?

Blocking middle seats is standard "Euro Business" Its been done forever by multiple airlines. Not news.

I wonder why the 2nd door wasn't certified by now. I have no doubt it will be. This is a pretty standard process.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Wed Jul 14, 2021 12:05 pm

Polot wrote:
VV wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
...
If an airline is considering the 146 seat E2-195, Airbus will offer the A223 in 160 seats. If Embraer wins a few orders in a row, we will know. 10 seats is enough to pay for the 4th FA. 5 seats is not.
...


So you think Airbus Canada would be willing to develop and certify the second overwing emergency exit door when they are still losing money until 2025 or so and they need to finance themselves just because an airline considers 146 seats on the E195-E2?
It is an interesting thought.

Airbus will offer. They won’t actually go through with it unless customer pulls the trigger (and it is a significantly high enough volume or price to make it worthwhile).

It sounds like multiple airlines are interested. This a speculative business case. Airbus would never charge one airline the total cost as that airline could demand a licensing fee of all other airlines for the modification. I would think Airbus would eat the cost to enable future sales.

WIth the announcement AF will have more seats, that means a high likelihood the sales contract included the extra over-wing exit active.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
reidar76
Posts: 590
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 5:16 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:33 am

Remember that the A220 is still an Canadian aircraft. The primary certification authority is Transport Canada Civil Aviation.

As an example, the A320 and A321 is not certified by FAA to have 194 and 244 passenger seats respectively. There probably have not been any reason to submit an application to the FAA and ask for an increased maximum passenger limit. So don't expect that EASA is up-to-date on the latest changes in A220 certification.

Transport Canada certification for the A220-300 with one over-wing exit is: "157 (including 1 Pilot, 1 Co-pilot, 1 Observer, a maximum of 5 Cabin Crew and a maximum of 149 Passengers) when fitted with an approved interior." There isn't listed anything about the second (optional) over-wing exit.

https://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/Saf-Sec-Sur/2/ ... d_num=2062

It looks like Airbus is pursuing further increases in maximum allowed occupants, without adding the second over-wing exit. There is reference to application 525.807(g) at Transport Canada, with the title "Increased Maximum Passenger Seating Capacity - Overperforming Type III Emergency Exits". The A320/A321 is certified by EASA with overperforming exits.

The airport planning manual for the A220 shows the optional second over-wing exit: (page 46) https://eservices.aero.bombardier.com/w ... ID=mVHwufA

(Side note: Airbus Canada still updates their airport planning manuals at Bombardiers site.)
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1640
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:58 am

VV wrote:
Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?


I believe there is high possibility that one big airline already did just that for their 100 AND 300 negotiation. The big airline in Atlanta. No, I have no proof, just a hunch.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:02 am

SteelChair wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?


I believe there is high possibility that one big airline already did just that for their 100 AND 300 negotiation. The big airline in Atlanta. No, I have no proof, just a hunch.

Considering the state of BBD and the C series at the time, and the price BBD was offering, I doubt CS500 talk was part of the negotiations with DL. The initial order didn’t even include CS300s, just conversions rights for part of the order (a vast majority of which DL later exercised).

Airbus can’t include a commitment to build a A225 as part of current contracts. They have not been authorized by their board to sell a A225 or commit themselves to that project. Sales staff are not allowed to just commit Airbus to new aircraft/variants. They are not the decision makers on what Airbus designs/builds, when they will build a new aircraft/variant, and how the company spends its money.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:40 am

:praise: :praise:
reidar76 wrote:
Remember that the A220 is still an Canadian aircraft. The primary certification authority is Transport Canada Civil Aviation.

As an example, the A320 and A321 is not certified by FAA to have 194 and 244 passenger seats respectively. There probably have not been any reason to submit an application to the FAA and ask for an increased maximum passenger limit. So don't expect that EASA is up-to-date on the latest changes in A220 certification.

Transport Canada certification for the A220-300 with one over-wing exit is: "157 (including 1 Pilot, 1 Co-pilot, 1 Observer, a maximum of 5 Cabin Crew and a maximum of 149 Passengers) when fitted with an approved interior." There isn't listed anything about the second (optional) over-wing exit.

https://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/Saf-Sec-Sur/2/ ... d_num=2062

It looks like Airbus is pursuing further increases in maximum allowed occupants, without adding the second over-wing exit. There is reference to application 525.807(g) at Transport Canada, with the title "Increased Maximum Passenger Seating Capacity - Overperforming Type III Emergency Exits". The A320/A321 is certified by EASA with overperforming exits.

The airport planning manual for the A220 shows the optional second over-wing exit: (page 46) https://eservices.aero.bombardier.com/w ... ID=mVHwufA

(Side note: Airbus Canada still updates their airport planning manuals at Bombardiers site.)

:praise:

You brought up a great point the rest of us... :banghead: forgot about that important detail.

No no 2nd set of exits means no one has signed a contract.
That means there is a path to upgrading the FAA/EASA certification when an airline wants it. Cool.

It also means no > 149 seat airlines have shown interest. :cry2:

Sadly, it will take months for the known campaigns to go anywhere. The best hope is at the ALC conference call in August. It doesn't necessarily mean anything if nothing happens, but it would be the earliest we would hear any good news.
https://airleasecorp.com/press/air-leas ... rence-call

It will be weeks... so time to find other thread until Aug 5th.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Babyshark
Posts: 309
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 2:43 am

VV wrote:
Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?


“Absolutely we can give you a stretched 220… it’s called a 320Neo, but better yet, have you seen the casm on our 321Neo? Check this out!!!

Not to mention, 320 fleet has some easy training costs, 321 pilots can fly 320s too, way larger support network and best of all, you don’t need as many pilots, and as many gates. And if you ever expand, that 330 would look awfully good on you. So would differences training. Come talk to our finance people, they’ll set you up with a nice demo.”

-Airbus “Canada”
 
Babyshark
Posts: 309
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 2:55 am

SteelChair wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?


I believe there is high possibility that one big airline already did just that for their 100 AND 300 negotiation. The big airline in Atlanta. No, I have no proof, just a hunch.


Doubt it.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:15 am

Polot wrote:
VV wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
...
If an airline is considering the 146 seat E2-195, Airbus will offer the A223 in 160 seats. If Embraer wins a few orders in a row, we will know. 10 seats is enough to pay for the 4th FA. 5 seats is not.
...


So you think Airbus Canada would be willing to develop and certify the second overwing emergency exit door when they are still losing money until 2025 or so and they need to finance themselves just because an airline considers 146 seats on the E195-E2?
It is an interesting thought.

Airbus will offer. They won’t actually go through with it unless customer pulls the trigger (and it is a significantly high enough volume or price to make it worthwhile).


Bombardier DID offer the 160 seat configuration to Air Baltic, one of the most fervent operators of A220.
For some reasons the certified aircraft has a maximum passenger count of 145.

The 160 seat high density configuration was mentioned in a FlightGlobal article in March 2013 (link below).
https://www.flightglobal.com/bombardier ... 13.article
Bombardier has officially launched a high-density 160-seat variant of its in-development CSeries CS300.

The airframer says the higher-capacity aircraft requires the addition of a second pair of over-wing exit doors and will be available as both a line-fit and retrofit option.

Latvia's Air Baltic has become the first customer for the "extra capacity" jet, although it has opted to configure its aircraft with 148 seats.


The Type Certificte Data Sheet for A220 published by EASA of March 2021 is in the link below. Read page 21.
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... df#page=21
[i]19. Maximum Aircraft Occupants
153 (including 1 Pilot, 1 Co-pilot, 1 Observer, a minimum of 3 Cabin Crew and a maximum of 145
Passengers
)
[/i]


I am not sure what has happened since then.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:38 am

reidar76 wrote:
Remember that the A220 is still an Canadian aircraft. The primary certification authority is Transport Canada Civil Aviation.

As an example, the A320 and A321 is not certified by FAA to have 194 and 244 passenger seats respectively. There probably have not been any reason to submit an application to the FAA and ask for an increased maximum passenger limit. So don't expect that EASA is up-to-date on the latest changes in A220 certification.

Transport Canada certification for the A220-300 with one over-wing exit is: "157 (including 1 Pilot, 1 Co-pilot, 1 Observer, a maximum of 5 Cabin Crew and a maximum of 149 Passengers) when fitted with an approved interior." There isn't listed anything about the second (optional) over-wing exit.

https://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/Saf-Sec-Sur/2/ ... d_num=2062

It looks like Airbus is pursuing further increases in maximum allowed occupants, without adding the second over-wing exit. There is reference to application 525.807(g) at Transport Canada, with the title "Increased Maximum Passenger Seating Capacity - Overperforming Type III Emergency Exits". The A320/A321 is certified by EASA with overperforming exits.

The airport planning manual for the A220 shows the optional second over-wing exit: (page 46) https://eservices.aero.bombardier.com/w ... ID=mVHwufA

(Side note: Airbus Canada still updates their airport planning manuals at Bombardiers site.)


The Type Certificate Data Sheet from TCCA mentions the following. Read page 5.
Maximum Occupants

153 (including 1 Pilot, 1 Co-pilot, 1 Observer, a maximum of 5 Cabin Crew and a maximum of 145 Passengers) when fitted with an approved interior.

In accordance with the ESF to 525.807(g), when equipped with provisions (Modsum 500T100692) and Dual Lane Slide Option (Modsum 500T800030) the maximum occupants are:
157 (including 1 Pilot, 1 Co-pilot, 1 Observer, a maximum of 5 Cabin Crew and a maximum of 149 Passengers) when fitted with an approved interior.


So an airline needs to buy the modifications (most probably charged) to get to 149 passenger capacity.

As for the Airport Planning Manual, it is very interesting to note that the format and the content and structure of the document is so different from other Airbus Aircraft Characteristics for Airport Planning documents that you can find in the link below.
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/support ... stics.html

In addition, I observed that the Airport planning document of the A220 issue 26 published on 17 June 2021 still has the wrong performance data (payload range, MTOW value, TOFL vs TOW chart, LFL vs LW chart).
You can check it by yourself in the link below. The performance pages are time stamped in 2015.
https://eservices.aero.bombardier.com/w ... ID=mVHwufA

And yes, the document is still hosted by Bombardier.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:16 am

Babyshark wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?


“Absolutely we can give you a stretched 220… it’s called a 320Neo, but better yet, have you seen the casm on our 321Neo? Check this out!!!

Not to mention, 320 fleet has some easy training costs, 321 pilots can fly 320s too, way larger support network and best of all, you don’t need as many pilots, and as many gates. And if you ever expand, that 330 would look awfully good on you. So would differences training. Come talk to our finance people, they’ll set you up with a nice demo.”

-Airbus “Canada”


What if the airline does not have A320neo and does not want to get yet another engine for cost containment? After all you still need some spare engines for each aircraft.
The answer still is not very convincing in my opinion.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:52 am

VV wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?


“Absolutely we can give you a stretched 220… it’s called a 320Neo, but better yet, have you seen the casm on our 321Neo? Check this out!!!

Not to mention, 320 fleet has some easy training costs, 321 pilots can fly 320s too, way larger support network and best of all, you don’t need as many pilots, and as many gates. And if you ever expand, that 330 would look awfully good on you. So would differences training. Come talk to our finance people, they’ll set you up with a nice demo.”

-Airbus “Canada”


What if the airline does not have A320neo and does not want to get yet another engine for cost containment? After all you still need some spare engines for each aircraft.
The answer still is not very convincing in my opinion.

Then the airline has to suck it up and deal with it. They have no other alternative.
 
VV
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:22 am

Polot wrote:
VV wrote:
Babyshark wrote:

“Absolutely we can give you a stretched 220… it’s called a 320Neo, but better yet, have you seen the casm on our 321Neo? Check this out!!!

Not to mention, 320 fleet has some easy training costs, 321 pilots can fly 320s too, way larger support network and best of all, you don’t need as many pilots, and as many gates. And if you ever expand, that 330 would look awfully good on you. So would differences training. Come talk to our finance people, they’ll set you up with a nice demo.”

-Airbus “Canada”


What if the airline does not have A320neo and does not want to get yet another engine for cost containment? After all you still need some spare engines for each aircraft.
The answer still is not very convincing in my opinion.

Then the airline has to suck it up and deal with it. They have no other alternative.

Perhaps they can then start with 737-7 with about 152 seats then densify it later on before going to 737-8 and then 737-10 is the market grows.
Does it make sense?
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12062
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:50 am

VV wrote:
Polot wrote:
VV wrote:

What if the airline does not have A320neo and does not want to get yet another engine for cost containment? After all you still need some spare engines for each aircraft.
The answer still is not very convincing in my opinion.

Then the airline has to suck it up and deal with it. They have no other alternative.

Perhaps they can then start with 737-7 with about 152 seats then densify it later on before going to 737-8 and then 737-10 is the market grows.
Does it make sense?

The A319neo still exists, which is similar in size to the A223 and 737-7 (about same as former, slightly smaller than latter). If airline is fine with 737-7s Airbus will happily pitch the A319neo with the opportunity to grow into the A320neo and A321neo. That’s exactly what Spirit decided to do.

There is no direct, with similar weight and efficiency, alternative to the A220 family that has larger than A223 variants. If you want that you have no choice but to accept the Max 7 or A319neo at the moment. Airlines don’t really have the negotiating power to demand that Airbus make a A225 now on their schedule. Airbus holds the cards.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6609
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 11:59 am

VV wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?


“Absolutely we can give you a stretched 220… it’s called a 320Neo, but better yet, have you seen the casm on our 321Neo? Check this out!!!

Not to mention, 320 fleet has some easy training costs, 321 pilots can fly 320s too, way larger support network and best of all, you don’t need as many pilots, and as many gates. And if you ever expand, that 330 would look awfully good on you. So would differences training. Come talk to our finance people, they’ll set you up with a nice demo.”

-Airbus “Canada”


What if the airline does not have A320neo and does not want to get yet another engine for cost containment? After all you still need some spare engines for each aircraft.
The answer still is not very convincing in my opinion.


A320NEO simply isn't economical compared to a hypothetical A220-500. There is a reason both B6/DL have A321NEO and A220-300, but not made any A320NEO orders. The most logical move as many have said is to add a few rows to A320NEO to create a A320.5NEO and also offer A220-500. That would leave a great lineup for 110 to 250 seat.

If you already made the decision to add A220, then A220-500 is a no-brainer if it gets offered.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:10 pm

Polot wrote:
There is no direct, with similar weight and efficiency, alternative to the A220 family that has larger than A223 variants.

This is the point. If airlines want A223 efficiency, they will do the calculation.
AirCanada
JetBlue
AirFrance
Breeze

All came to the conclusion a mixed fleet would work.

The only competition has no growth option. Perhaps it is a reason the size category hasn't done as well as I predicted.

For sales campaigns we have seen the A220 replace turboprops at AirBaltic. I think this is the growth market. There will not be an available competitive turboprop until, I estimate, 2030 with today's long certification times. That is a good number of sales campaigns.

Eventually, I believe there will be an A225, but not until Airbus delivers a few thousand more A320NEO and an engine PiP. Engine PiPs always favor larger guage aircraft:
Greater durability has a greater per flight savings on larger guage (who need earlier overhauls).
Fuel burn savings favor heavier aircraft (in particular as they carry less fuel, saving more weight and thus fuel per flight). Look at how sharklets and the V2500 engine PiP helped A321CEO sales.

But gor the next 5 years, we'll see the A223 be the bulk with A221 bid agressively vs. the competition.

tphuang wrote:
If you already made the decision to add A220, then A220-500 is a no-brainer if it gets offered.

True. I would expect 185 seats in ULCC configuration, which would change that market.

Back fully on topic:
So we wait
ALC
SAS
Truejet
Green Africa

It has been a long time since we knew about 4+ sales campaigns currently in process. The last time we had this level of sales activity is when Airbus took over the program.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9850
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:39 pm

VV wrote:
What if the airline does not have A320neo and does not want to get yet another engine for cost containment? After all you still need some spare engines for each aircraft.


If a carrier doesn't have Neos or MAXs on order it just isn't a serious commercial enterprise primed to buy hundreds of airplanes to direct airframe development. This stuff with 10 or 20 at little carriers - it's a joke. Market-driven enterprises won't invest $10 Billion chasing that market. BBD spent $7 Billion because of overruns, and then because it thought the near-term market for small narrowbodies was 3x the size it turned out to be. If they could have done it for the proposed $2.1 Billion, on time, into the size market they expected, BBD would still own it - and look pretty smart.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1640
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 2:41 am

Babyshark wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
VV wrote:
Is there any possibility that airline executives use the potential stretch of the A220-300 (often speculated as A220-500) to put pressure on Airbus Canada in their negotiations for A220-300 orders?

Just imagine a big airline CEO who says, "I am very interested to order 50 A220-300 if you can commit to develop a simple stretch of the aircraft for our future growth in 2025. Without such commitment I cannot commit to ordering A220-300."

Do you think there are a lot of executives with such idea?


I believe there is high possibility that one big airline already did just that for their 100 AND 300 negotiation. The big airline in Atlanta. No, I have no proof, just a hunch.


Doubt it.


Well, let's do some detective work: How many A320neos has the airline in question ordered?

What will fill that gap between the 223 and 321N? They've already tipped their hand with the order book. Sorry it will pay less, but they're famous for capacity discipline.

Why do so many refuse to see that the GTF made the A320 series a very different series of airplanes? The 319N is way unbalanced/suboptimal and even the A320N is suboptimal. The big GTF fits the 321N just right, so much so that the LR and XLR are now serious players. And the small GTF fits the 223 and 225 just right.

What would be interesting would be to see the 320 fit with the small GTF, weight taken out of the airframe, and the airplane optimized for less than 1000nm routes. But that hasn't even been speculated. Except by me, just now. It's much easier just to do the 225.
 
Cactusjuba
Posts: 285
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:06 am

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:17 am

Airbus will offer the 225 when they are ready, whenever that may be. But we've heard comments over the years from several airlines showing interest in this model. I've personally heard the airline CEO of a big 220 operator state, paraphrased "at some point Airbus is going to want to do an A220-500. And we'll be very interested in that..[and further expounding about the hypothetical improved economics vs the 220-300, and why it'd be a great fit]. So I have no doubt this future model has been discussed thoroughly with customers.
 
Bradlee102896
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 4:13 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:15 pm

I wonder what the outlook of the A220 is if let’s say Breeze Airways ends up not being successful and very few deliveries are made, would that be a huge setback for the program?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:49 pm

Bradlee102896 wrote:
I wonder what the outlook of the A220 is if let’s say Breeze Airways ends up not being successful and very few deliveries are made, would that be a huge setback for the program?

That is why multiple medium sized purchases are required.

The 717 had AirTran, where the planes went to SouthWest then Delta. Due to lack of sales, Delta retiring the type as the only mid size customer is ruining the support economics.

The mid size customers (50+ orders) for the A220:
Delta 95
Breeze 80
JetBlue 70
AirFrance 60
AirBaltic 50

Plus AirCanada fell out of mid-size, but is still significant. ALC placed 15 of 50 per prior.

Huge setback? No. Bad? Yes.

But thanks to leasing companies placing as well as Egyptair and KE, a pretty good spot actually if a couple are lost.

There seems to be some potential momentum. I'm very curious to know how the ALC call goes. No expectation.

Lightsaber
Ps, obviously a large order would be better. Multiple large orders better still. We are where we are. We have enough orders for the current announced production ramp.
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1479
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:55 am

lightsaber wrote:
Ps, obviously a large order would be better. Multiple large orders better still. We are where we are. We have enough orders for the current announced production ramp.

With the current production rate, it would be difficult to win a large order unless deliveries are spaced out over many years. So, Airbus should be targetting small to medium orders and gradually build up the A220 userbase.

Meanwhile, it should be sorting out its supply chain to gain more efficiency. It should also improve the aircraft performance and economics constantly. Once this is done, it will then be time to think of adding a -500 to the family.
  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos