LOT is looking at buying 50+ A220 or E2 jets.

This could be a big win for either airframer.
https://www.aerotime.aero/29607-airbus- ... ompetition

ITA firms LOI for 7 A220:
https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/c ... s-aircraft

Lightsaber

Well for goodness sake, I hope they go A221/223/225 to build a nice family.
And launch the A225.
I think it would be an efficient fleet for LOT: A22x and 787.

I think Airbus is trying to hold off the A220 stretch for as long as possible so that it can derive better RoI on their A32xNeo investments.

Any new A220 stretch may require substantial investments as it will probably at the design limits of this airframe and Airbus needs a very good business case to do so.

T4thH wrote:

There is no European airline/airline group in according size, flying only Boeing wb and sm.
Even Tui Fly have few E190 and Iceland Air some Dash 8.

Or do I miss one?

It stretches the definition of European a bit and would probably be unlikely overall, but El Al fits.

zkojq wrote:

T4thH wrote:

There is no European airline/airline group in according size, flying only Boeing wb and sm.
Even Tui Fly have few E190 and Iceland Air some Dash 8.

Or do I miss one?

It stretches the definition of European a bit and would probably be unlikely overall, but El Al fits.

Israel is too much tied to US and its aerospace / military industry. I don't see that that bold move anytime

Kikko19 wrote:

zkojq wrote:

T4thH wrote:

There is no European airline/airline group in according size, flying only Boeing wb and sm.
Even Tui Fly have few E190 and Iceland Air some Dash 8.

Or do I miss one?

It stretches the definition of European a bit and would probably be unlikely overall, but El Al fits.

Israel is too much tied to US and its aerospace / military industry. I don't see that that bold move anytime

Sorry, El Al is tied to Boeing and an all Boeing customer, but not all of the airlines of Israel. Israir: There is an A220 sales tour on-going for the A220. The airline has changed the ownership, the new owner is eyeing a fleet revamp to an all A220 fleet.https://mentourpilot.com/airbus-a220-israir-eyeing-a-complete-fleet-revamp/

Israir is now an all Airbus and ATR customer.

So, there is a possibility, Israir will order the A220 till end of this year (so will get part of the additional up to 150 A220 orders till end of 2021) but it is not the "European all Boeing customer with also wb's and no LCC/ULCC".

Kikko19 wrote:

zkojq wrote:

It stretches the definition of European a bit and would probably be unlikely overall, but El Al fits.

Israel is too much tied to US and its aerospace / military industry. I don't see that that bold move anytime

Generally speaking I'd agree, but they've got Rolls Royce engines on their dreamliners, so never say never. The economics of the A321neo and A220 are very strong.

Jet Airways is reported to be talking to both Boeing & Airbus about a large order - could they be interested in the A220?

DartHerald wrote:

Jet Airways is reported to be talking to both Boeing & Airbus about a large order - could they be interested in the A220?

According all news till now: NO. According news, they are only interested in jets of the size of A320/B737 families, as the A320 Neo family of Airbus is sold out till 2024 and virtually alreay till 2026? that it is impossible to build up a new airline with an according number of jets, the lessors will be very expensive for an airline with the "failed" history, as they have been a B737 customer prior: They will most likely forced to order the MAX. They were just to late to order the A320 family.

lightsaber wrote:

LOT is looking at buying 50+ A220 or E2 jets.

This could be a big win for either airframer.
https://www.aerotime.aero/29607-airbus- ... ompetition

ITA firms LOI for 7 A220:
https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/c ... s-aircraft

Lightsaber

First of all thanks for the links.
For the first link I`m a bit sceptical because :

With the addition of either Airbus A220 or Embraer E2 aircraft, the Polish airline would first replace its existing fleet of De-Havilland Canada Dash 8 regional jets.

A turboprop is a regional jet ???
No matter I myself believe ( according to my private source ) the decision already is made and I would bet my money on it.
For your second link the interesting part for me is which model they have chosen ? Take a look at this page :

https://sites.google.com/view/europeanairlinefleets/ita-airways
Seven orders from Airbus and 15 leases from ALC tells us the seven are for A220-100s and so much for the naysayers that the 100s are dead when we keep in mind that Ibom Air has also ordered 7 of the smallest BabyBus !
Last but not least I try to collect the sources for deliveries in 2022 which is important for every sales campaign

oldJoe wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

LOT is looking at buying 50+ A220 or E2 jets.

This could be a big win for either airframer.
https://www.aerotime.aero/29607-airbus- ... ompetition

ITA firms LOI for 7 A220:
https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/c ... s-aircraft

Lightsaber

First of all thanks for the links.
For the first link I`m a bit sceptical because :

With the addition of either Airbus A220 or Embraer E2 aircraft, the Polish airline would first replace its existing fleet of De-Havilland Canada Dash 8 regional jets.

A turboprop is a regional jet ???

Lot has a large E-jet fleet to replace. From the link:
Currently, LOT has a fleet of 49 regional jets

Going to airfleets.net:
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/LOT ... rlines.htm
E145: none seem to be flying
E170/175: qty 16
E190/195: qty 19

And yes, it looks like Q400s were counted as RJs. That might be sloppy writing or a translation error. Either way, it tells us the approximate replacement fleet size. I could see an order for 25 to 50 (depending on expansion ambitions) with options from LOT. As I have no insight into their preference, I cannot say if they will go A220 or E2. However, this is one of the larger potential sales campaigns.

The other is Qantas. Again, I do not know how many might be A220s, if they go Boeing/Airbus/Embraer. We have another thread into that debate.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1465483&start=200

What matters is the A220 has done pretty well in 2020 and if either of the orders goes in favor of the type at Qantas, it is a healthy expansion in economy of scale. I personally think the range of the A220 gives it a good chance of a win at Qantas. I do not know about LOT as while they have a heavy Embraer fleet, so did AC or JetBlue. Of nothing more than a hunch, winning both orders, which I expect to happen in 2022. If both are won by the A220, that guarantees a book to bill of over 1:1 in 2022 and a probable further increase in the A220 production rate.

What matters is the A220 is moving into good economics of scale which will bring the cost of production and maintenance down which ensures further future sales. With all the recent orders, including for 14 (net 4) A221 in November, if seems to me that the momentum on the airframe is shifting nicely. I see the A220 filling the niche that was the 736/A318/717 and 73G/A319. We can debate on how much upgauging, I would take a bet that be YE 2025 over a thousand A220s will have been sold with myself taking the over.

Order and delivery update for November:
https://aircraft.airbus.com/en/newsroom ... ember-2021
or go straight for the spreadsheets:
https://www.airbus.com/en/products-serv ... deliveries

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote :
....... and a probable further increase in the A220 production rate.

This is a must in my opinion. Please forgive me not to repeat all those sources again and again ( bit lazy at the moment )
What I have collected from different sources about deliveries in 2022
Air Canada 6x -300s
Air Baltic 5x -300s
Air France 15x -300s
Azimuth Airlines 1x -300 from ALC at least
Breeze Airways 12x -300s
Delta Air Lines 4x -100s and 7 -300s
ITA Airways 7x -300s from ALC
JetBlue 9x -300s
This are 66 deliveries for 2022 from where I can find sources and I can`t see some wiggle room without a production rate increase.
Let`s not forget about the ACJ TwoTwenty ( first one rolled out in full Comlux livery ) which makes Neeleman hopes bigger to get his extra fuel tank on the A220-300 and also the CEO of Air Baltic has an eye on this ( also looks at the A220-500 )
Let`s speculate : Airbus build in the extra fuel tank ( A220-300 ) and Breeze and Air Baltic exercise their options makes alone 70 orders !
By the way I would not bet against you that more than thousand A220s will be sold only on the year I disagree. My bet 2024

oldJoe wrote:

By the way I would not bet against you that more than thousand A220s will be sold only on the year I disagree. My bet 2024

There is an area I would like you to win the discussion. In my opinion, when a thousand sales happen will depend on production rates.

I didn't quote all, but I would hypothesize the 2H2022 sees the increase to rate 7 and 2023 sees to rate 8, so I think we agree.

However, that depends on LOT, Qantas, and SAS order decisions.

I also agree on the ACTs, already in development for the TWO Twenty, but that requires a further MTOW increase, which is certainly plausible.

I personally was a little disappointed ALC only ordered 25 more. Now, with options, little downside for them. However, we need a world with the European air shows back. Both as that signals a return to demand and it allows Udvar-Hazy to do his sales magic.

I'm rooting for Qantas as that puts service, training, and support near Asia. In my opinion, KE's tiny fleet doesn't do enough for regional economics. With a few breakthrough orders, it really seeds future sales.

Lightsaber

Air Current interview with Christian Scherer with a heavy tease on the A220-500.
https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... us-agenda/

oldJoe wrote:

lightsaber wrote :
....... and a probable further increase in the A220 production rate.

This is a must in my opinion. Please forgive me not to repeat all those sources again and again ( bit lazy at the moment )
What I have collected from different sources about deliveries in 2022
Air Canada 6x -300s
Air Baltic 5x -300s
Air France 15x -300s
Azimuth Airlines 1x -300 from ALC at least
Breeze Airways 12x -300s
Delta Air Lines 4x -100s and 7 -300s
ITA Airways 7x -300s from ALC
JetBlue 9x -300s
This are 66 deliveries for 2022 from where I can find sources and I can`t see some wiggle room without a production rate increase.
Let`s not forget about the ACJ TwoTwenty ( first one rolled out in full Comlux livery ) which makes Neeleman hopes bigger to get his extra fuel tank on the A220-300 and also the CEO of Air Baltic has an eye on this ( also looks at the A220-500 )
Let`s speculate : Airbus build in the extra fuel tank ( A220-300 ) and Breeze and Air Baltic exercise their options makes alone 70 orders !
By the way I would not bet against you that more than thousand A220s will be sold only on the year I disagree. My bet 2024

I am really curious to know how the A220 is doing for Delta? They have been taking on alot of 300's lately. I also wonder if they would be jumping on the 500 if it came to be? Noticing a large amount of A220's at the Delta Seattle hub lately too. Nothing beats the whale sound they produce!

F9Animal wrote:

I am really curious to know how the A220 is doing for Delta? They have been taking on alot of 300's lately. I also wonder if they would be jumping on the 500 if it came to be?

As of 9/30/21 as spec'd by the 8-K filing, DL was due 4 more A220-100s and 41 more A220-300s. The Annual Report (status as of 12/31/2020) noted that fully 22 of the 223s were due 'after 2023.' I don't see that subsequent SEC filings show purchase commitments by year.

yyztpa2 wrote:

Air Current interview with Christian Scherer with a heavy tease on the A220-500.
https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... us-agenda/

Breeze had 60 firm orders and 60 options. 20 options exercised so far but whenever asked David has always said we see every option being taken. He also said during the press conference last week for route announcements that Breeze would be taking at least 1 A220 per month for the next 10 years.

Internally, the rumor is that Breeze has already signed up to be an A220-500 launch customer. I think it’s only a matter of time before the model is officially on the table.

Airbus wins a large A220 and A320neo order from airbus

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-renewal/

20 firm for A220-300

96 options for other aircraft including A220-100

Cardude2 wrote:

Airbus wins a large A220 and A320neo order from airbus

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-renewal/

20 firm for A220-300

96 options for other aircraft including A220-100

Article indicates Airbus is selected as QANTAS prefered vendor for narrowbody fleet but orders not until end of FY2022. It appears that the fiscal year ends in June 2022 but look to others more knowledgeable to confirm that.

yyztpa2 wrote:

Cardude2 wrote:

Airbus wins a large A220 and A320neo order from airbus

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-renewal/

20 firm for A220-300

96 options for other aircraft including A220-100

Article indicates Airbus is selected as QANTAS prefered vendor for narrowbody fleet but orders not until end of FY2022. It appears that the fiscal year ends in June 2022 but look to others more knowledgeable to confirm that.

Yes Australian financial year runs from 1 July to 30 June

What qualifies as "Domestic". Population is only 25million and centred in a handful of cities? Have they not ordered too much? I realise it is 3000km across but still.

PhilipBass wrote:

What qualifies as "Domestic". Population is only 25million and centred in a handful of cities? Have they not ordered too much? I realise it is 3000km across but still.

According to planespotters.net they currently have have 80 B737s and 20 B717s. Deliveries of the new aircraft are scheduled to take place over a 10 year period. I think they took up options because they are still undecided as to what type of aircraft they would need in future and will exercise those options at the appropriate moments.

I'm excited that Qantas ordered the A220. However, the order for only 20 A220 from Qantas surprised me. I truly expected a larger order considering the 717 and some Fokkers will be replaced by the A220. I wonder if used E19x will be the primary Fokker replacement path going forward?

I honestly do not know how many A220 options they will exercise. That said, this is a win!

Lightsaber
Late edit: There is speculation Qantas wants the A220-500. I cannot confirm anything with a quality link, however, that could be a future A220 top off order.

I think a lot of A220 customers are holding back right now, waiting for A220-500.

I know JetBlue has to replace A320CEO at some point and they are not going to take another A320NEO.

lightsaber wrote:

I'm excited that Qantas ordered the A220. However, the order for only 20 A220 from Qantas surprised me. I truly expected a larger order considering the 717 and some Fokkers will be replaced by the A220. I wonder if used E19x will be the primary Fokker replacement path going forward?

I honestly do not know how many A220 options they will exercise. That said, this is a win!

Lightsaber
Late edit: There is speculation Qantas wants the A220-500. I cannot confirm anything with a quality link, however, that could be a future A220 top off order.

Despite some of the speculation here, the tender was always just to cover the 717, and not also the Fokkers:

ClassicLover wrote:

keesje wrote:

ClassicLover wrote:

Also, the F100 replacement is not part of this tender, so it's a moot point.

Is it not? https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-10-03/ Then there are more than 1 contest, but they are strongly related anyway.

If Airbus could offer the A220-100, -300 (and -500 in the future) at attractive pricing that would have many obvious advantages. But free A220 slots are sparse for years to come & I can't imagine an A220-100 being cheaper than overhauled E190s for a few flights a day.

Anyway the financial condition of QF is stable (thanx gov.) & interest rates low, so that should help. https://www.traveldailymedia.com/how-qa ... -pandemic/

No, the Fokker 100 is not included - the Qantas press release is here - https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-finalising-10-year-program-to-renew-domestic-fleet/

It specifically says Boeing 737-800 and Boeing 717 replacement, even going so far as to list the specs of the two aircraft types being replaced, as well as the four contenders (737MAX, A320neo, A220 and Embraer E-Jet E2) along with their specs at the bottom of the press release. Therefore the Reuters article appears to be incorrect.

Qantas has been financially fine for years now, they're one of the few investment grade airlines in the world.

V/F

lightsaber wrote:

I'm excited that Qantas ordered the A220. However, the order for only 20 A220 from Qantas surprised me. I truly expected a larger order considering the 717 and some Fokkers will be replaced by the A220. I wonder if used E19x will be the primary Fokker replacement path going forward?

I honestly do not know how many A220 options they will exercise. That said, this is a win!

Lightsaber
Late edit: There is speculation Qantas wants the A220-500. I cannot confirm anything with a quality link, however, that could be a future A220 top off order.

Only 20 is not bad when we keep in mind that a few months ago there was not much hope of any sale for this year, isn`t it ?
The LOT thing is still pending where I believe it will go A220 !
As I said before about the 1 thousand sale mark : 2024 because I believe if at this year will happen a big European airshow Airbus will anounce the -500 and many airlines not only with options will bite and order ! Sorry but I can`t ( prohibited ) tell you a name but my source did not dissapointed me in the past

lightsaber wrote:

I'm excited that Qantas ordered the A220. However, the order for only 20 A220 from Qantas surprised me. I truly expected a larger order considering the 717 and some Fokkers will be replaced by the A220. I wonder if used E19x will be the primary Fokker replacement path going forward?

I honestly do not know how many A220 options they will exercise. That said, this is a win!

Lightsaber
Late edit: There is speculation Qantas wants the A220-500. I cannot confirm anything with a quality link, however, that could be a future A220 top off order.

The A220 would be a huge upgrade over the B717 in terms of pax comfort and operating economics. Qantas has options for the A220 too - so it can order other family models if it sees a need in future.

oldJoe wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I'm excited that Qantas ordered the A220. However, the order for only 20 A220 from Qantas surprised me. I truly expected a larger order considering the 717 and some Fokkers will be replaced by the A220. I wonder if used E19x will be the primary Fokker replacement path going forward?

I honestly do not know how many A220 options they will exercise. That said, this is a win!

Lightsaber
Late edit: There is speculation Qantas wants the A220-500. I cannot confirm anything with a quality link, however, that could be a future A220 top off order.

Only 20 is not bad when we keep in mind that a few months ago there was not much hope of any sale for this year, isn`t it ?
The LOT thing is still pending where I believe it will go A220 !
As I said before about the 1 thousand sale mark : 2024 because I believe if at this year will happen a big European airshow Airbus will anounce the -500 and many airlines not only with options will bite and order ! Sorry but I can`t ( prohibited ) tell you a name but my source did not dissapointed me in the past

As said before, I would be happy to be wrong on the year a thousand A220 sales occur.

LOT and SAS are the two larger campaigns I'm aware of still in work. Either could be a game changer. I'm just expressing that used E-jet prices are low enough that for limited utilization, they are attractive. This is one reason I suspect Qantas will fly the A220 more hours per day as it is just so cheap in variable costs. The options on the A220 will almost certainly be exercised to some degree. The initial order is just very conservative without growth plans. I'd love to know all the details of the options (e.g., when they must be exercised by, delivery terms).

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

This is one reason I suspect Qantas will fly the A220 more hours per day as it is just so cheap in variable costs.

Hmm... marginally more. They'll be shiny and new without near-term big maintenance checks, and that will help. They may prove to be more reliable, maybe enough to reduce the spares (both aircraft and parts counts). Variable cost - maybe a little, as a CASK decline would make more airport pairs viable.

Fuel isn't the biggest cost of flying - labor is. Not just pilots and FAs, but indirect labor, and labor costs embedded in purchased services. Other than some maintenance labor, those labor costs aren't declining at all.

You can't tell a gate agent who's been handling six departures in an 8-hr shift 'Now you're going to handle ten departures because variable costs of an A220 are so much cheaper!'

MIflyer12 wrote:

You can't tell a gate agent who's been handling six departures in an 8-hr shift 'Now you're going to handle ten departures because variable costs of an A220 are so much cheaper!'

Why not? The gate agent is paid per hour not per departure.

tphuang wrote:

I think a lot of A220 customers are holding back right now, waiting for A220-500.

The launch orders for the 225 will probably exceed total firm orders for the program to date.

tphuang wrote:

I know JetBlue has to replace A320CEO at some point and they are not going to take another A320NEO.

My sleeper is AA. So many 319s, 320s and 738s to still replace.

See comment in 517 by flightsimer about internal musings that Breeze may have signed on as a launch customer. If assuming Airbus is signing launch conditional customers, this would raise a multiude of questions for airliner.net speculation:

What volume could trigger a launch...300, 400, higher? What customers might be on board and for how many units each? Who else might be launch? Who is left to reach the target?

What ocassion would Airbus use to announce and what timeframe could first delivery occur?

Would Airbus build as a growth of the current Bombardier concept with minor changes or would they use the launch to incorporate Airbus technology? What could those be?

Would Quebec retain a share in this program under Airbus Canada or would this be an all Airbus program? Would YMX and BFM continue to be the primary FALs or would work move elsewhere such as TLS?

yyztpa2 wrote:

See comment in 517 by flightsimer about internal musings that Breeze may have signed on as a launch customer. If assuming Airbus is signing launch conditional customers, this would raise a multiude of questions for airliner.net speculation:

What volume could trigger a launch...300, 400, higher? What customers might be on board and for how many units each? Who else might be launch? Who is left to reach the target?

What ocassion would Airbus use to announce and what timeframe could first delivery occur?

Would Airbus build as a growth of the current Bombardier concept with minor changes or would they use the launch to incorporate Airbus technology? What could those be?

Would Quebec retain a share in this program under Airbus Canada or would this be an all Airbus program? Would YMX and BFM continue to be the primary FALs or would work move elsewhere such as TLS?

Let us go through the questions....

internal musings that Breeze may have signed on as a launch customer.

Nope. Breeze will be the launch customer for the extended range version. Who has been the main launch customer in the last decades?...Correct Lufhansa group. Who else was often launch customer in the last decades? Correct, Swiss, so now also LHG. And LHG has still options on-going.
Who was the first one, shown interest in a longer version of the A220 and stated, then they will take the 10 options, which are left; they have already asked years ago. And have already received all firmed ordered planes?...correct, KAL.
Who else was the launch customer of the A220 family and is interested in the extended range and the longer version? Correct, Baltic.

What volume could trigger a launch...300, 400, higher?

They have already stated, they will produce the A220-500 (if you are able to read between the lines), they have promised to do this and also stated, when they will start. So it is not triggered by numbers, it is triggert, when it is time. It is time, when: The A220 is a nice plane, but the production is outdated. The A220 was produced from outsite to in, so first the hull and then everything else is added. This is not the Airbus way. 3 modules will be equipped in the pre-FAL with floor plates, tubes cables e.g. and then assembeld in the FAL. The production will have to be invreased to 14 per month, 10 fully assembeled in Montreal, + 14 pre assembled in the pre-FAL for Montreal and Mobile and 4 assemebled in the FAL in Mobile/month.

As Airbus is on the stock market, they have to be careful, what they will when announce. My bet: Start/announcement 2023, first flight 2025, EIS early 2027. But first we will see the A220-300 ER/LR.

Would Airbus build as a growth of the current Bombardier concept with minor changes or would they use the launch to incorporate Airbus technology? What could those be?

They will use the Bombardier concept and plans, as most is already done. They will use the A220-500 development and the A220-300 ER/LR development, to additional implement and upgrade further parts, which will be flight tested as part of these new programs and implemented in the whole family, as already several times seen now. No, they will not change/destroy the communality with the already produced A220. This does not work,

Would Quebec retain a share in this program under Airbus Canada or would this be an all Airbus program? Would YMX and BFM continue to be the primary FALs or would work move elsewhere such as TLS?

The program will stay in Canada, Montreal will stay the main FAL. It is bad, that the "Fliegerfaust" page is gone as he had some connections(additional information regarding this, Per contract, with Canady, Airbus will stay there in Canada for decades. Airbus has not only bought the C100/C300 for one $, this was not unconditional. So basically, Canada has bought in for just cheap1 $ in the big global Airbus family, they are now there to stay. Was it not a great deal for Canada (no, this is not a bad joke, this is what I mean)? No, no FAL in Europe. Canada and Mobile, more is not needed.

qf789 wrote:

yyztpa2 wrote:

Cardude2 wrote:

Airbus wins a large A220 and A320neo order from airbus

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-renewal/

20 firm for A220-300

96 options for other aircraft including A220-100

Article indicates Airbus is selected as QANTAS prefered vendor for narrowbody fleet but orders not until end of FY2022. It appears that the fiscal year ends in June 2022 but look to others more knowledgeable to confirm that.

Yes Australian financial year runs from 1 July to 30 June

Not quite - an aside. Most companies follow a 30 June as this is winter and accountants prefer to account in the winter, it seems. But companies that have European parents often share the 31 December balance date of their parent. Japanese companies have a few 31 March balance dates and so there are handfuls of those to be found.

Qantas' financial year is 30 June but that is not the Australian financial year given the full flexibility to choose your own year end date that is allowed in Australia.

Back to A220s now tho...

lightsaber wrote:

I'm excited that Qantas ordered the A220. However, the order for only 20 A220 from Qantas surprised me. I truly expected a larger order considering the 717 and some Fokkers will be replaced by the A220. I wonder if used E19x will be the primary Fokker replacement path going forward?

I honestly do not know how many A220 options they will exercise. That said, this is a win!

Lightsaber
Late edit: There is speculation Qantas wants the A220-500. I cannot confirm anything with a quality link, however, that could be a future A220 top off order.

Qantas has changed its orders from being big mega orders to smaller bite sized ones. The big orders smashed their credit ratings and so theyve moved to the smaller ones to keep (or push back towards as is the current case) an investment grade rating. The big orders came from an era where bigger egos ran the business who liked to have big notes on themselves. The egos now are different and the big notes they want are financial ones, not metal ones.

T4thH wrote:

[

internal musings that Breeze may have signed on as a launch customer.

Nope. Breeze will be the launch customer for the extended range version. Who has been the main launch customer in the last decades?...Correct Lufhansa group. Who else was often launch customer in the last decades? Correct, Swiss, so now also LHG. And LHG has still options on-going.
Who was the first one, shown interest in a longer version of the A220 and stated, then they will take the 10 options, which are left; they have already asked years ago. And have already received all firmed ordered planes?...correct, KAL.
Who else was the launch customer of the A220 family and is interested in the extended range and the longer version? Correct, Baltic.

Extended range Yes that is already known…, but the internal rumor is the A220-500 specifically.

MIflyer12 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

This is one reason I suspect Qantas will fly the A220 more hours per day as it is just so cheap in variable costs.

Hmm... marginally more. They'll be shiny and new without near-term big maintenance checks, and that will help. They may prove to be more reliable, maybe enough to reduce the spares (both aircraft and parts counts). Variable cost - maybe a little, as a CASK decline would make more airport pairs viable.

Fuel isn't the biggest cost of flying - labor is. Not just pilots and FAs, but indirect labor, and labor costs embedded in purchased services. Other than some maintenance labor, those labor costs aren't declining at all.

You can't tell a gate agent who's been handling six departures in an 8-hr shift 'Now you're going to handle ten departures because variable costs of an A220 are so much cheaper!'

Labor is a high cost. In particular trained maintenance labor. For every takeoff, the engines will cost less in future overhaul bills (amortized as so much per takeoff). The same with the airframe.
Fuel is an easy one. The big one is dispatch reliability. I posted upthread how the A220 has a 99.85% dispatch reliability (with link).
viewtopic.php?t=1427277

Not having to maintain, insure, and be ready with a spare aircraft is probably the greatest cost savings as 99.85% dispatch reliability means delays are now cheaper than backup aircraft.

As to putting ground crew on longer shifts, considering the typical airport "day" is 14 hours of operations (from a dead tree book in my undergrad days), if there are a few more flights per day thanks to faster turn times, that is a great thing.

I completely agree labor is a big expense. The A220 saves over the 717. So even if the missions are the same length, an extra flight that would be at a loss will now be a profit.
The 717 is a fuel hog. 5,000 lb/hr (2270kg/hr)
A220 is 3500 lb/hr (1590 kg/hr)
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/analysi ... -at-delta/

Current spot price is $2.035/gal in the US or $0.66/kg. So the savings is $448 per hour for fuel.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/gulf_coa ... o.%20Stats

While $448 an hour in savings doesn't seem like much, in a 30 day month with 8 hours of flying per day that is $107,520 usd or $1.29 million usd per year.

With say 140 seats per aircraft, that is a savings of $3.44 per seat per hour just off fuel. I'd estimate, even with purchase price, the A220 is going to save $4 to $5 per seat hour. At some point, that means a more marginal flight is profitable (in particular when network effects are taken into account).

So I actually don't see how the A220s won't be flown more intensely than the 717s. Heck, due to the range, run a redeye from the Australian West coast to SYD, or MEL cheaply.

Airlines always end up flying lower variable cost planes more intensely as more marginal routes become profitable. Look at the Map showing AirCanada, Delta, and JetBlue's A220 routes. So many beyond E-jet range. That is what efficiencies buys is low cost mid-haul.
https://paxex.aero/jetblue-a220-transcon-cancun/

This is what I'm most excited about the A220. Who expected Air Austral to be flying the longest A220 mission in the world? (Not me, I never would have guessed that operator, see above link). Part of what killed the 717 was lack of range. Remember Airtran's attempts to serve ATL-LAS and ATL-LAX with the 717?
viewtopic.php?t=319491

Recall from the above thread:

gr8slvrflt wrote:

My understanding is that AirTran management doesn't want to keep planes that are too old in their fleet and will start returning the earliest 717s before their D-checks. Also, they have made a big deal about the 737s being cheaper to operate.

Between range, dispatch reliability, and variable costs, I see the A220s being run very intensely once the economy is fully on the mend at every airline that operates them. Including putting in a few extra flights that wouldn't be profitable on an E-jet or 717. Thus the discussion on when, not if, the A220 breaks a thousand sales.

Lightsaber

T4thH wrote:

They have already stated, they will produce the A220-500 (if you are able to read between the lines), they have promised to do this and also stated, when they will start. So it is not triggered by numbers, it is triggert, when it is time

Airbus has always said it will be triggered by numbers, the profitability of the A220 operation, not time.

Airbus has a healthy backlog of the A320. A 220-500 would compete with the 320. It’s been suggested to LNA that Airbus will launch the -500 when orders for the A320 largely dry up and the backlog is reduced. Scherer didn’t directly address these speculative points. But he did say the 220 program needs to achieve profitability first.

“When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.

Ref: https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/16/air-l ... ent-425041

If the A-220-500 will be the most efficient in it's size class (Max 8 and 320 Neo), what does either AB or BA (especially) have to gain by designing a replacement for the 737 or 320? Especially to recoup development costs.

Save the money and license build the - 500 in Seattle. The environment will thank you.

Uganda Airways eyes narrowbodies, either A220 or E2. Airbus seems to be in front.
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/110874-uganda-airlines-to-acquire-a220se2s-ceo

With the A220-300 from Airbus and the E195-E2 from Embraer in play, she hinted that the most likely contender for the contract would be Airbus given Uganda Airlines' eagerness to maintain manufacturer commonality.

And this seems to be the original source for it, a podcast from 17-Dec.
https://aviadevinsight.libsyn.com/episode-190-jenifer-bamuturaki-ceo-uganda-airlines-network-fleet-and-strategic-plans-for-2022-and-beyond

Just to summarize, to my knowledge, the sales campaigns previously discussed in this thread:
Note: I am excluding airlines taking re-delivery of already delivered aircraft (Azimuth for 6 leased)

Sales campaigns a success for the A220 (brought up in this thread) of 52 A220s:
ALC ordered 25
ITA ordered 7
Qantas ordered 20

he following competitions are still open, I downselected to airlines I found links in this thread on active sales campaigns (excluded "I think XXX will buy some/more").
1.Air Burkina
2. Possible top off order for 10 by AirCanada
3. Possible top off by AirFrance
4. Croatia Airways (possibly 2 others in Croatia, I don't know if they were serious or just kicking tires)
5. Green Africa
6. IBom (was this confirmed for 10? The links I found weren't solid enough for me to declare victory yet)
7. Israir
8. LOT (possibly a large order)
9. SAS (possibly a large order)
10. Truejet
11. Uganda Airways

If I missed one, please provide a link. I'm an optimist, I'm going to dwell on any campaigns that weren't in favor the A220.
I personally (speaking as a user) want to know potential sales in 2022. As much as I'd like to see another sale in 2021 in the famous Airbus 5th quarter, I'm less optimistic about that with the A220 at the current volumes. I do expect more announced orders to be confirmed in the annual report (Wikipedia has only 20 firm orders in 2021).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

Lightsaber

Another thing about an A220-500...airlines could have another option for orders, given how the A320neo family is sold out until 2026. Right now, an airline needing A320neo planes sooner must take from a lessor's order book, and even those may already be accounted for.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

Another thing about an A220-500...airlines could have another option for orders, given how the A320neo family is sold out until 2026. Right now, an airline needing A320neo planes sooner must take from a lessor's order book, and even those may already be accounted for.

An A220-500 would not start being delivered before 2026 anyways.

lightsaber wrote:

Just to summarize, to my knowledge, the sales campaigns previously discussed in this thread:
Note: I am excluding airlines taking re-delivery of already delivered aircraft (Azimuth for 6 leased)

Sales campaigns a success for the A220 (brought up in this thread) of 52 A220s:
ALC ordered 25
ITA ordered 7
Qantas ordered 20

he following competitions are still open, I downselected to airlines I found links in this thread on active sales campaigns (excluded "I think XXX will buy some/more").
1.Air Burkina
2. Possible top off order for 10 by AirCanada
3. Possible top off by AirFrance
4. Croatia Airways (possibly 2 others in Croatia, I don't know if they were serious or just kicking tires)
5. Green Africa
6. IBom (was this confirmed for 10? The links I found weren't solid enough for me to declare victory yet)
7. Israir
8. LOT (possibly a large order)
9. SAS (possibly a large order)
10. Truejet
11. Uganda Airways

If I missed one, please provide a link. I'm an optimist, I'm going to dwell on any campaigns that weren't in favor the A220.
I personally (speaking as a user) want to know potential sales in 2022. As much as I'd like to see another sale in 2021 in the famous Airbus 5th quarter, I'm less optimistic about that with the A220 at the current volumes. I do expect more announced orders to be confirmed in the annual report (Wikipedia has only 20 firm orders in 2021).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

Lightsaber

Lufthansa group/board: LHG wants to simplefy the group and eyes the A220 for the replacement of the regional fleet jets. If they order, they will order many "viele". Some sources in German, use the translator in your browsers.
https://www.frankfurtflyer.de/lufthansa-will-airbus-a220-kaufen/
https://www.aerotelegraph.com/lufthansa-hat-lust-auf-mehr-airbus-a220
https://www.aero.de/news-41205/Lufthansa-prueft-A220-fuer-Cityline.html
https://reisetopia.de/news/lufthansa-regionalflotte-noch-mehr-airbus-a220-denkbar/

regarding Trujet and the investman plan, to purchase 54 A220 and 54 E2, announced in Apr-2021;
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/dae-deregisters-two-atr72-600-leased-to-trujet/article37971521.ece
They have had 7 ATRs, 5 ATR-500 and 2 ATR-600 (and this is the whole fleet). 5 were not any more flying as lessors not paid (already in Apr-2020), two are now de-registered, so: 7-5-2 = 0?
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/102308-indias-trujet-to-buy-54-a220s-54-e2s-says-new-investor

T4thH wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Just to summarize, to my knowledge, the sales campaigns previously discussed in this thread:
Note: I am excluding airlines taking re-delivery of already delivered aircraft (Azimuth for 6 leased)

Sales campaigns a success for the A220 (brought up in this thread) of 52 A220s:
ALC ordered 25
ITA ordered 7
Qantas ordered 20

he following competitions are still open, I downselected to airlines I found links in this thread on active sales campaigns (excluded "I think XXX will buy some/more").
1.Air Burkina
2. Possible top off order for 10 by AirCanada
3. Possible top off by AirFrance
4. Croatia Airways (possibly 2 others in Croatia, I don't know if they were serious or just kicking tires)
5. Green Africa
6. IBom (was this confirmed for 10? The links I found weren't solid enough for me to declare victory yet)
7. Israir
8. LOT (possibly a large order)
9. SAS (possibly a large order)
10. Truejet
11. Uganda Airways

If I missed one, please provide a link. I'm an optimist, I'm going to dwell on any campaigns that weren't in favor the A220.
I personally (speaking as a user) want to know potential sales in 2022. As much as I'd like to see another sale in 2021 in the famous Airbus 5th quarter, I'm less optimistic about that with the A220 at the current volumes. I do expect more announced orders to be confirmed in the annual report (Wikipedia has only 20 firm orders in 2021).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

Lightsaber

Lufthansa group/board: LHG wants to simplefy the group and eyes the A220 for the replacement of the regional fleet jets. If they order, they will order many "viele". Some sources in German, use the translator in your browsers.
https://www.frankfurtflyer.de/lufthansa-will-airbus-a220-kaufen/
https://www.aerotelegraph.com/lufthansa-hat-lust-auf-mehr-airbus-a220
https://www.aero.de/news-41205/Lufthansa-prueft-A220-fuer-Cityline.html
https://reisetopia.de/news/lufthansa-regionalflotte-noch-mehr-airbus-a220-denkbar/

regarding Trujet and the investman plan, to purchase 54 A220 and 54 E2, announced in Apr-2021;
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/dae-deregisters-two-atr72-600-leased-to-trujet/article37971521.ece
They have had 7 ATRs, 5 ATR-500 and 2 ATR-600 (and this is the whole fleet). 5 were not any more flying as lessors not paid (already in Apr-2020), two are now de-registered, so: 7-5-2 = 0?
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/102308-indias-trujet-to-buy-54-a220s-54-e2s-says-new-investor

First on TrueJet, they announced a plan to purchase, but that isn't the same as having a contract with financing planned. So I put as a campaign, but I do not know if it is going anywhere for the financial reasons you noted.

The first link seems straight forward, use the options on the A220 to replace the A319s in the LHG fleet. For the small fleet replacement, I expect more than a few stations will have to go to trains or buses for the shorter flights and other stations will see larger planes with less frequency. There the A220 would be a great fit. From that first link (after translation):
With the 30 options, Lufthansa could replace the Airbus A319 very quickly in the coming years, although a replacement for the Lufthansa CityLine regional fleet is also being sought. There are currently 11 Embraer 190 and 31 Canadair CRJ-900, which will have to be replaced sooner or later. For Lufthansa, a uniform fleet would offer itself here, consisting of the Airbus A220-300 and the Airbus A220-100.

That seems reasonable. Never say never to competition, but if Airbus and LHG come to a deal, I could see another airline replacing E-Jets (and in this case CR9s) with A220s (for E-jet replacement with A220s, see AirCanada, JetBlue, and then we can debate about Qantas). So the list becomes:
1.Air Burkina
2. Possible top off order for 10 by AirCanada
3. Possible top off by AirFrance
4. Croatia Airways (possibly 2 others in Croatia, I don't know if they were serious or just kicking tires)
5. Green Africa
6. IBom (was this confirmed for 10? The links I found weren't solid enough for me to declare victory yet)
7. Israir
8. LOT (possibly a large order)
9. SAS (possibly a large order)
10. Truejet (possibly insolvent)
11. Uganda Airways
12. LH group for A319 (30 options exercised) and regional replacement (new order)

Lightsaber

Here is a question. So we see Airbus holding their line of waiting for A220 profitability before starting A220-500. I have no idea how long that will take. What if two of three blue chip airlines come to them and say we need a A319/A320 replacement, but don't want A320NEO. This RFP is between MAX8 and A220. We need A220-500 to tip the scales here.

lightsaber wrote:

T4thH wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Just to summarize, to my knowledge, the sales campaigns previously discussed in this thread:
Note: I am excluding airlines taking re-delivery of already delivered aircraft (Azimuth for 6 leased)

Sales campaigns a success for the A220 (brought up in this thread) of 52 A220s:
ALC ordered 25
ITA ordered 7
Qantas ordered 20

he following competitions are still open, I downselected to airlines I found links in this thread on active sales campaigns (excluded "I think XXX will buy some/more").
1.Air Burkina
2. Possible top off order for 10 by AirCanada
3. Possible top off by AirFrance
4. Croatia Airways (possibly 2 others in Croatia, I don't know if they were serious or just kicking tires)
5. Green Africa
6. IBom (was this confirmed for 10? The links I found weren't solid enough for me to declare victory yet)
7. Israir
8. LOT (possibly a large order)
9. SAS (possibly a large order)
10. Truejet
11. Uganda Airways

If I missed one, please provide a link. I'm an optimist, I'm going to dwell on any campaigns that weren't in favor the A220.
I personally (speaking as a user) want to know potential sales in 2022. As much as I'd like to see another sale in 2021 in the famous Airbus 5th quarter, I'm less optimistic about that with the A220 at the current volumes. I do expect more announced orders to be confirmed in the annual report (Wikipedia has only 20 firm orders in 2021).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

Lightsaber

Lufthansa group/board: LHG wants to simplefy the group and eyes the A220 for the replacement of the regional fleet jets. If they order, they will order many "viele". Some sources in German, use the translator in your browsers.
https://www.frankfurtflyer.de/lufthansa-will-airbus-a220-kaufen/
https://www.aerotelegraph.com/lufthansa-hat-lust-auf-mehr-airbus-a220
https://www.aero.de/news-41205/Lufthansa-prueft-A220-fuer-Cityline.html
https://reisetopia.de/news/lufthansa-regionalflotte-noch-mehr-airbus-a220-denkbar/

regarding Trujet and the investman plan, to purchase 54 A220 and 54 E2, announced in Apr-2021;
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/dae-deregisters-two-atr72-600-leased-to-trujet/article37971521.ece
They have had 7 ATRs, 5 ATR-500 and 2 ATR-600 (and this is the whole fleet). 5 were not any more flying as lessors not paid (already in Apr-2020), two are now de-registered, so: 7-5-2 = 0?
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/102308-indias-trujet-to-buy-54-a220s-54-e2s-says-new-investor

First on TrueJet, they announced a plan to purchase, but that isn't the same as having a contract with financing planned. So I put as a campaign, but I do not know if it is going anywhere for the financial reasons you noted.

The first link seems straight forward, use the options on the A220 to replace the A319s in the LHG fleet. For the small fleet replacement, I expect more than a few stations will have to go to trains or buses for the shorter flights and other stations will see larger planes with less frequency. There the A220 would be a great fit. From that first link (after translation):
With the 30 options, Lufthansa could replace the Airbus A319 very quickly in the coming years, although a replacement for the Lufthansa CityLine regional fleet is also being sought. There are currently 11 Embraer 190 and 31 Canadair CRJ-900, which will have to be replaced sooner or later. For Lufthansa, a uniform fleet would offer itself here, consisting of the Airbus A220-300 and the Airbus A220-100.

That seems reasonable. Never say never to competition, but if Airbus and LHG come to a deal, I could see another airline replacing E-Jets (and in this case CR9s) with A220s (for E-jet replacement with A220s, see AirCanada, JetBlue, and then we can debate about Qantas). So the list becomes:
1.Air Burkina
2. Possible top off order for 10 by AirCanada
3. Possible top off by AirFrance
4. Croatia Airways (possibly 2 others in Croatia, I don't know if they were serious or just kicking tires)
5. Green Africa
6. IBom (was this confirmed for 10? The links I found weren't solid enough for me to declare victory yet)
7. Israir
8. LOT (possibly a large order)
9. SAS (possibly a large order)
10. Truejet (possibly insolvent)
11. Uganda Airways
12. LH group for A319 (30 options exercised) and regional replacement (new order)

Lightsaber

The Airbus November Orders and Deliveries report.shows an Ibom Air order for 7 x A220-100 and 3 x A220-300 on November 5

jbs2886 wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

Another thing about an A220-500...airlines could have another option for orders, given how the A320neo family is sold out until 2026. Right now, an airline needing A320neo planes sooner must take from a lessor's order book, and even those may already be accounted for.

An A220-500 would not start being delivered before 2026 anyways.

The A321 XLR was launched in June 2019 and is projected for first deliveries to MEA in 2023. Your projection suggests a near term launch within next 6 months would be required to meet a 2026 first delivery

[twoid][/twoid]

tphuang wrote:

Here is a question. So we see Airbus holding their line of waiting for A220 profitability before starting A220-500. I have no idea how long that will take. What if two of three blue chip airlines come to them and say we need a A319/A320 replacement, but don't want A320NEO. This RFP is between MAX8 and A220. We need A220-500 to tip the scales here.

I guess they are asking the clients already what would they do if a225 would be available and how much would they spend for it, just to play with numbers behind the scenes. It won't be built if not generating profits and just for the happiness of us ;}

tphuang wrote:

Here is a question. So we see Airbus holding their line of waiting for A220 profitability before starting A220-500. I have no idea how long that will take. What if two of three blue chip airlines come to them and say we need a A319/A320 replacement, but don't want A320NEO. This RFP is between MAX8 and A220. We need A220-500 to tip the scales here.

I think they'd weigh all the factors.
Airbus comments suggest profitability around c. rate 14 and c. 2025, which is actually not that far away.

But they've also made the launch contingent on the market turning away from the A320NEO.
As it happens, a slew of conversions from A320 to A321 in the last few years has resulted in

a reduction in the overall A320NEO order book (now c. 3,750)
a reduction in the A320NEO back log of c. 1,200 in the last 3 years, down to 2,400
An increase in the overall A321NEO order book (now c. 4,000)
an increase in the A321NEO backlog of c. 1,200 in the last 3 years, up to 3,400

It's not impossible that Airbus are deliberately promoting the A321 at the expense of the A320 - they get a higher value sale anyway.
If the trend continues, then it's not infeasible that the A320NEO backlog might look a little thin in 3-4 years, concurrent with the A220 line profitability.

The market ultimately speaks. Clearly if your scenario of 3-4 major blue chip orders materialises it's likely to accelerate the process.

I wouldn't be surprised to see an A220-500 launched in 3-4 years.
I'd be surprised to see it launched before then.

I think Airbus would want to further develop the type's capability further first anyway.

Rgds