Has someone checked the population density of western China?

China is a quite interesting place. They will need a lot of regional jets in the eastern part, the wealthiest part.

https://www.china-mike.com/china-travel ... tion-maps/

There has recently been a secondary market transaction signed, but not yet completed, where the leasing company claims they are making a profit off the sale:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/avation ... 2021-08-25

Not a normal sales campaign. I'm not sure this even close to showing there is a liquid secondary market on the A220, but at least there is a secondary market for an aircraft under a lease contract (to AirBaltic, in this case). If that continues, there will be more leasing companies ordering/marketing the A220.

I also just noticed that ALC has 25 options to acquire more A220 (in their financial reporting, buried as note 2 of Table #3):
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 21-Results

I look forward to the 5th table having lots of A220 populating it.

Lightsaber

VV wrote:

Has someone checked the population density of western China?

China is a quite interesting place. They will need a lot of regional jets in the eastern part, the wealthiest part.

https://www.china-mike.com/china-travel ... tion-maps/

Fallacy - poor understanding of the economics of geography. Where population density is high and population centers not too far apart (maybe less than 600km) they can just build out the high speed rail network, as Germany/France/Spain have done. It's a far lower energy input per passenger Km, and much easier to electrify with green sources.

lightsaber wrote:

There has recently been a secondary market transaction signed, but not yet completed, where the leasing company claims they are making a profit off the sale:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/avation ... 2021-08-25

Not a normal sales campaign. I'm not sure this even close to showing there is a liquid secondary market on the A220, but at least there is a secondary market for an aircraft under a lease contract (to AirBaltic, in this case). If that continues, there will be more leasing companies ordering/marketing the A220.

I also just noticed that ALC has 25 options to acquire more A220 (in their financial reporting, buried as note 2 of Table #3):
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 21-Results

I look forward to the 5th table having lots of A220 populating it.

Lightsaber

Notice that options dropped from 25 in December to 24 in June. The drop of 1 is possibly reflected with the undisclosed buyer on June 4.

MIflyer12 wrote:

VV wrote:

Has someone checked the population density of western China?

China is a quite interesting place. They will need a lot of regional jets in the eastern part, the wealthiest part.

https://www.china-mike.com/china-travel ... tion-maps/

Fallacy - poor understanding of the economics of geography. Where population density is high and population centers not too far apart (maybe less than 600km) they can just build out the high speed rail network, as Germany/France/Spain have done. It's a far lower energy input per passenger Km, and much easier to electrify with green sources.

And yet Cathay Pacific will fly A321NEO the 84 miles from Hong Kong to Guangzhou
https://simpleflying.com/cathay-pacific ... eo-routes/

yyztpa2 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

VV wrote:

Has someone checked the population density of western China?

China is a quite interesting place. They will need a lot of regional jets in the eastern part, the wealthiest part.

https://www.china-mike.com/china-travel ... tion-maps/

Fallacy - poor understanding of the economics of geography. Where population density is high and population centers not too far apart (maybe less than 600km) they can just build out the high speed rail network, as Germany/France/Spain have done. It's a far lower energy input per passenger Km, and much easier to electrify with green sources.

And yet Cathay Pacific will fly A321NEO the 84 miles from Hong Kong to Guangzhou
https://simpleflying.com/cathay-pacific ... eo-routes/

Interesting comment.

I believe China will need a lot of EM to serve the eastern part, that's the wealthiest part of China.

yyztpa2 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

There has recently been a secondary market transaction signed, but not yet completed, where the leasing company claims they are making a profit off the sale:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/avation ... 2021-08-25

Not a normal sales campaign. I'm not sure this even close to showing there is a liquid secondary market on the A220, but at least there is a secondary market for an aircraft under a lease contract (to AirBaltic, in this case). If that continues, there will be more leasing companies ordering/marketing the A220.

I also just noticed that ALC has 25 options to acquire more A220 (in their financial reporting, buried as note 2 of Table #3):
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 21-Results

I look forward to the 5th table having lots of A220 populating it.

Lightsaber

Notice that options dropped from 25 in December to 24 in June. The drop of 1 is possibly reflected with the undisclosed buyer on June 4.

I overlooked that, thank you. Although a challenge to get excited for qty 1.

VV wrote:

Has someone checked the population density of western China?

China is a quite interesting place. They will need a lot of regional jets in the eastern part, the wealthiest part.

https://www.china-mike.com/china-travel ... tion-maps/

With the controlled nature of Chinese airspace, it is impossible for each cities to get their own airport. In many cases, this lead to cities end up sharing airports which are inconvenient to both. Thus population in many of those cities wouldn't prioritize the use of aircraft when flying.
And then, even when airports are being built, there are also control on air traffic volume. Larger aircraft are obviously a more efficient use of resources than smaller regional aircraft.
Furthermore, even with Eastern China being the wealthiest part of the country, many of those are still earning salary less than 1000USD a dollar. With the higher cost nature of regional flight flown with regional aircraft, I don't think there're really many people who can afford that.

yyztpa2 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

VV wrote:

Has someone checked the population density of western China?

China is a quite interesting place. They will need a lot of regional jets in the eastern part, the wealthiest part.

https://www.china-mike.com/china-travel ... tion-maps/

Fallacy - poor understanding of the economics of geography. Where population density is high and population centers not too far apart (maybe less than 600km) they can just build out the high speed rail network, as Germany/France/Spain have done. It's a far lower energy input per passenger Km, and much easier to electrify with green sources.

And yet Cathay Pacific will fly A321NEO the 84 miles from Hong Kong to Guangzhou
https://simpleflying.com/cathay-pacific ... eo-routes/

I think you'll have a hard time finding any passengers on the flight whose plan is to travel between the two cities while taking the flight

c933103 wrote:

VV wrote:

Has someone checked the population density of western China?

China is a quite interesting place. They will need a lot of regional jets in the eastern part, the wealthiest part.

https://www.china-mike.com/china-travel ... tion-maps/

With the controlled nature of Chinese airspace, it is impossible for each cities to get their own airport. In many cases, this lead to cities end up sharing airports which are inconvenient to both. Thus population in many of those cities wouldn't prioritize the use of aircraft when flying.
And then, even when airports are being built, there are also control on air traffic volume. Larger aircraft are obviously a more efficient use of resources than smaller regional aircraft.
Furthermore, even with Eastern China being the wealthiest part of the country, many of those are still earning salary less than 1000USD a dollar. With the higher cost nature of regional flight flown with regional aircraft, I don't think there're really many people who can afford that.

yyztpa2 wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Fallacy - poor understanding of the economics of geography. Where population density is high and population centers not too far apart (maybe less than 600km) they can just build out the high speed rail network, as Germany/France/Spain have done. It's a far lower energy input per passenger Km, and much easier to electrify with green sources.

And yet Cathay Pacific will fly A321NEO the 84 miles from Hong Kong to Guangzhou
https://simpleflying.com/cathay-pacific ... eo-routes/

I think you'll have a hard time finding any passengers on the flight whose plan is to travel between the two cities while taking the flight

And I don't see where point to point versus connecting was part of the discussion on opportunity to move people between two points in Eastern China. You could also question your point on the fact that both Guanzhou and Hong Kong are well connected hubs......true Hong Kong moreso, specifically for Cathay Pacific but they could also have targeted rail travellers for connections, yet they choose to fly.

"Wings over Quebec" has a new25 min podcast with an update on the A220 program, including the last rumors e.g. It is in French.
They are best informed source regarding Canadian air industry and the A220 program (but by bad luck in French).
https://www.lesailesduquebec.com/le-point-sur-le-programme-a220/


There is also a Youtube link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U9Jl179gLA&t=29s
Is someone willed to check it for us and give us some information?

T4thH wrote:

"Wings over Quebec" has a new25 min podcast with an update on the A220 program, including the last rumors e.g. It is in French.
They are best informed source regarding Canadian air industry and the A220 program (but by bad luck in French).
https://www.lesailesduquebec.com/le-point-sur-le-programme-a220/


There is also a Youtube link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U9Jl179gLA&t=29s
Is someone willed to check it for us and give us some information?

You can turn on the closed captions, then select the wheel/settings to change the language to english.

ZBA2CGX wrote:

T4thH wrote:

"Wings over Quebec" has a new25 min podcast with an update on the A220 program, including the last rumors e.g. It is in French.
They are best informed source regarding Canadian air industry and the A220 program (but by bad luck in French).
https://www.lesailesduquebec.com/le-point-sur-le-programme-a220/


There is also a Youtube link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U9Jl179gLA&t=29s
Is someone willed to check it for us and give us some information?

You can turn on the closed captions, then select the wheel/settings to change the language to english.

LOL. The automatic translation to English is absolutely hilarious.

VV wrote:

ZBA2CGX wrote:

T4thH wrote:

"Wings over Quebec" has a new25 min podcast with an update on the A220 program, including the last rumors e.g. It is in French.
They are best informed source regarding Canadian air industry and the A220 program (but by bad luck in French).
https://www.lesailesduquebec.com/le-point-sur-le-programme-a220/


There is also a Youtube link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U9Jl179gLA&t=29s
Is someone willed to check it for us and give us some information?

You can turn on the closed captions, then select the wheel/settings to change the language to english.

LOL. The automatic translation to English is absolutely hilarious.

LOL....No, by best will, please no automated youtube translation from French to anything...

lightsaber wrote:

We already know SAS, Truejet, and Green Africa are negotiating mid size orders. Yet most mid-size A220 orders have been a surprise (AirBaltic, Breeze, AirFrance). I expect AC to exercise options once out of their current financial situation as well as JetBlue, AirFrance, AirBaltic, Delta, and the leasing companies. I look forward to a pleasant surprise mid-size order (50+ A220) in the next 18 months.

Lightsaber

While they currently wet lease 2 A223 from EgyptAir, Ibom Air is planning their own order for delivery beginning late 2022.

"Ibom Air is currently in negotiations with Airbus to procure a fleet of brand new A220s for deliveries commencing 4th quarter 2022. "

https://www.ibomair.com/press-release-i ... erational/

I wonder if their plans for Nigeria will preempt Green Africa.

yyztpa2 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

We already know SAS, Truejet, and Green Africa are negotiating mid size orders. Yet most mid-size A220 orders have been a surprise (AirBaltic, Breeze, AirFrance). I expect AC to exercise options once out of their current financial situation as well as JetBlue, AirFrance, AirBaltic, Delta, and the leasing companies. I look forward to a pleasant surprise mid-size order (50+ A220) in the next 18 months.

Lightsaber

While they currently wet lease 2 A223 from EgyptAir, Ibom Air is planning their own order for delivery beginning late 2022.

"Ibom Air is currently in negotiations with Airbus to procure a fleet of brand new A220s for deliveries commencing 4th quarter 2022. "

https://www.ibomair.com/press-release-i ... erational/

I wonder if their plans for Nigeria will preempt Green Africa.

It is interesting to note that all of Ibom's aircraft are leased.
There is nothing wrong to operate a fully leased fleet. It is just interesting to note.

Croatia airlines to be pitched A220. It looks like for this airline the A320NEO is too much capacity. Airbus holds 8 million euros of deposits for a planned cancellation of A320NEO orders, so it is A220 in liu of A320, possibly.

https://thetourisminternational.com/202 ... -airlines/

lightsaber wrote:

Croatia airlines to be pitched A220. It looks like for this airline the A320NEO is too much capacity. Airbus holds 8 million euros of deposits for a planned cancellation of A320NEO orders, so it is A220 in liu of A320, possibly.

https://thetourisminternational.com/202 ... -airlines/

Interesting news to say at least. I could see them retiring the A319 ( 5 ) and A320 ( 2) and get something like 5 -6 A220s and keep the young fleet of the Dash-8

Whats the seat breakeven for the Airbus220 on a 600 miles segment?

oldJoe wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Croatia airlines to be pitched A220. It looks like for this airline the A320NEO is too much capacity. Airbus holds 8 million euros of deposits for a planned cancellation of A320NEO orders, so it is A220 in liu of A320, possibly.

https://thetourisminternational.com/202 ... -airlines/

Interesting news to say at least. I could see them retiring the A319 ( 5 ) and A320 ( 2) and get something like 5 -6 A220s and keep the young fleet of the Dash-8

I don't see them getting rid of young turboprops, however, there is an opperating advantage of one fleet type (perhaps A221 and A223). So eventually, if they order the A220, they could later consolidate to one type a la AirBaltic who retired well loved turboprops. It becomes a question of when it makes sense to retire the turboprops.

The A320s are currently the oldest, averaging 21.7 years, followed by the A319s at 19.8 years and the Dash 8s at 12.1 years.

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/09/ai ... s.html?m=1

At that old a fleet, it is reasonable to plan to convert to a single type, but over an extended time frame of, I would propose, six years, starting next year going to 2027. As I do not know current contract durations, I am making many assumptions on the best timeframe.

On a different topic, the other potential A220 orders seem to have gone quiet with the delta variant outbreak. I hope ALC seizes an opportunity and tops off their order. I would love to know their signed customers.

I also do not know the status of the improvements to 4,000nm range. It facinates me on the opportunities for A220 operators to go long/thin. Although, my opinion is that A220 opperators will buy that option (if available).
https://worldofaviation.com/2021/05/bre ... -increase/

Sometime next year we'll see over 200 A220 in customer service. During December 2022 it just might be 220 A220 at airlines. (Maybe). I think all the new opperators will help sell the type. Soon:
Iraqi Airways, Air France, and Breeze.
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-csr.htm
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... nment.html

Alas, we need to exit coronavirus to really have robust sales. I hope we see more new campaigns.

Lightsaber

There was the scheduled 2020 (half official) Souh America sales tour last year, wich was cancelled regarding COVID, just few days, before it was started....

lightsaber wrote :
I would love to know their signed customers.

If the article is correct than their first costumer is Azimuth
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/105919-russias-azimuth-confirms-a220-superjet-growth-plans

Sometime next year we'll see over 200 A220 in customer service. During December 2022 it just might be 220 A220 at airlines. (Maybe)

Until end of August 173 A220 were delivered, 30 so far this year and I believe at least 10 more until year end. If Airbus can deliver in 2022 the same amount than we are over 220

[quote="oldJoe"]

If the article is correct than their first costumer is Azimuth
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/105919-russias-azimuth-confirms-a220-superjet-growth-plans

Now that is facinating, if correct, they are taking 9 A220 at Azimuth. I'm always happy finding out about new A220 customers.

yyztpa2 wrote:

I think you'll have a hard time finding any passengers on the flight whose plan is to travel between the two cities while taking the flight
And I don't see where point to point versus connecting was part of the discussion on opportunity to move people between two points in Eastern China. You could also question your point on the fact that both Guanzhou and Hong Kong are well connected hubs......true Hong Kong moreso, specifically for Cathay Pacific but they could also have targeted rail travellers for connections, yet they choose to fly.

There is a need to consider who the flights between these cities are for. These flights aren't meant for the average Hong Kong or Guangzhou resident. These flights are to feed into the respective networks of Cathay Pacific and China Southern (and Guangzhou is the larger airport and the most connected one)..

if you live in Hong Kong (Kowloon, Hong Kong or New territories) your well served by buses to Guangdong, China no matter where you reside. Issue is those takes a few hours and may stop on the way depending on which coach-line you choose, but they are cheap and convenient. If you're an expat and have business the fast train takes an hour and leaves from Kowloon. Its the given choice among more or less every expat that choose mass transport.
There are ferries that goes to two terminals in Guangzhou, pretty cool rides as well and they leave from Kowloon but they usually don't see the business crowd.
Now this is modes of mass transport. Most business travellers I know gets driven between HongKong and Southern Guangdong so mass transport isnt a question...

For the A220 the chances of it flying short hops among the three main river deltas (Pearl, Yangtze and Yellow river) is to me minimal. The population centres are huge but China has followed Europe/Japan, not US when it comes to transport and people take coach or train. Flying short hops just isnt on peoples mind and its seen as inefficient. To me if the A220 has a role in china its not in the populous west but the sparsely populated states (eastern two states, border south west, Manchuria and the likes of inner Mongolia). With that said I believe the A220 isnt destined for China. Instead its next clients will be found in Europe, Middle East and Africa.
Eastern Europe is fertile ground for it. Air Baltic is one but the likes of Tarom, Air Serbia, Croatia etc are definitely good candidates.Add on the sparsely populated Nordics and even Ireland/Portugal. Deep Africa is great but has payment issues. However this is the plane TAAG, Air Namibia etc should be flying and this is the plane that Etiopian and Kenyan would do well with. Add on Maghreb.
Now I know that the sales team has been knocking the door quite a bit it a new northern European client and my belief is that this client would have signed the dotted line had Covid not happened. I still believe they will sign on to the plane. Makes so much sense.

lightsaber wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

If the article is correct than their first costumer is Azimuth
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/105919-russias-azimuth-confirms-a220-superjet-growth-plans

Now that is facinating, if correct, they are taking 9 A220 at Azimuth. I'm always happy finding out about new A220 customers.

Air Manas was the first CIS airline to fly the A220. Their one delivery came out of the six which GTLK had received. Air Manas is to take one more this year from GTLK and then three more by 2023.
http://www.rusaviainsider.com/airbus-wi ... n-the-cis/
"Air Manas entered service with its first Airbus A220-300 in May, 2021 on lease from Russia’s GTLK. The aircraft has a single-class layout with 145 passenger seats. The airline plans to add another aircraft of the type later this year (also via GTLK), and a further three by the end of 2023."

Green Africa at one point was going to take three from the GTLK order, likley to bridge until they received their then anticipated order for 50.
https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/iri ... 15.article

These might be the three now going to Air Manas by 2023. If so, GTLK has placed 5 but there is the 6th A220 still unaccounted for.

Breeze have just upped their order by a further 20 x A220-300 frames.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/u ... 41.article

DartHerald wrote:

Breeze have just upped their order by a further 20 x A220-300 frames.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/u ... 41.article

In German press it was reported that those were previously filed as unidentified:

https://www.aero.de/news-40718/Breeze-z ... -A220.html

DUSZRH wrote:

DartHerald wrote:

Breeze have just upped their order by a further 20 x A220-300 frames.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/u ... 41.article

In German press it was reported that those were previously filed as unidentified:

https://www.aero.de/news-40718/Breeze-z ... -A220.html

Yes, this is the UFO from March, which was reported to be from Breeze but never officially confirmed (until now).

jbs2886 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Late edit, depending on RJ negotiations, I could also see AA order and DL top off

Honest question - what role does the A220 play in the contract - this thread has left me a bit confused. Is it contractual that more A220s = more 76-seaters or more negotiating room?

I am speculating. The airlines need to offer pilots something to alter scope. In my opinion, the 50-seat economics just aren't working well (which saddens me as my most common RJ destination is only 50-seat RJs). They need more 76 seaters as the 50 seaters leave the fleet. The only way I see that possible is if the airlines do something to shore up the pilot jobs (they hold the cards in scope negotiations at all US airlines). I also see it viable to do reduced frequency flying to these destinations with the A220. My opinion is shaped by the growing costs per employee (even at the regionals) which forces upgauging to some degree (once up to the -10MAX or A321, the "push" to larger gauge isn't as great, IMHO).

Link on delta retiring CR2s by year end 2023:
https://onemileatatime.com/delta-retiri ... ber%202025

I know this isn't an airtight case for A220 sales, but it will be an obvious negotiating point.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote :
I don't see them getting rid of young turboprops, however, there is an opperating advantage of one fleet type (perhaps A221 and A223). So eventually, if they order the A220, they could later consolidate to one type a la AirBaltic who retired well loved turboprops. It becomes a question of when it makes sense to retire the turboprops.

According to the article, Croatia Airlines plans to acquire 12 to 15 new aircraft to be leased in the next 5 years. I can therefore see that Croatia is going the same way as Air Baltic. Interestingly, the demonstration flight was carried out with an Air Baltic machine.
It is also worth mentioning that representatives of two Croatian charter airlines were there on the same day, namely ETF Airways and Trade Air. That doesn't mean much, but every interest or curiosity can be rated positively, does it ? I'm curious what will become of it
source in German only :
https://www.aerotelegraph.com/croatia-airlines-will-sich-12-bis-15-neue-flugzeuge-zulegen

oldJoe wrote:

lightsaber wrote :
I don't see them getting rid of young turboprops, however, there is an opperating advantage of one fleet type (perhaps A221 and A223). So eventually, if they order the A220, they could later consolidate to one type a la AirBaltic who retired well loved turboprops. It becomes a question of when it makes sense to retire the turboprops.

According to the article, Croatia Airlines plans to acquire 12 to 15 new aircraft to be leased in the next 5 years. I can therefore see that Croatia is going the same way as Air Baltic. Interestingly, the demonstration flight was carried out with an Air Baltic machine.
It is also worth mentioning that representatives of two Croatian charter airlines were there on the same day, namely ETF Airways and Trade Air. That doesn't mean much, but every interest or curiosity can be rated positively, does it ? I'm curious what will become of it
source in German only :
https://www.aerotelegraph.com/croatia-airlines-will-sich-12-bis-15-neue-flugzeuge-zulegen

Thankfully I can muddle through German... The two other airlines there is very interesting; I agree it doesn't mean much, but it could. Leasing spare capacity from a nearby operator to show off the plane is probably cheaper than flying one from far away and the AirBaltic configuration is probably close to what they would equip the aircraft with anyway.

With the continued "Delta variant" wave, I'm not surprised few orders, but I was hoping. No business can ever afford to stop selling.
I noticed wikipedia is up to 173 delivered of 643 orders (I know airfleets lags):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A220#A220-300

When I look at the operators list (which seems more accurate than Airfleets who double books iBom and Egypt air when all are owned by Egyptair), I look forward to Iraqi Airways, Breeze, and AirFrance starting operations with the A220 soon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... _operators

I don't see any other new operators in the production list:
https://www.abcdlist.nl/cseries/cseries.html

Upthread, in addition to the Croatia airlines, we discussed SAS, Air Lease Corporation, TrueJet, and Green Africa. Is there any news on those airlines?

Lightsaber

Someone83 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Upthread, in addition to the Croatia airlines, we discussed SAS, Air Lease Corporation, TrueJet, and Green Africa. Is there any news on those airlines?

Lightsaber

SAS appears, although nothing official, to go for a wetlease solution of E195 (either E1 or E2) for their mid-size aircraft need

Do you have a source? Last I heard, they were demanding better reliability from both aircraft:
https://airinsight.com/sas-demands-bett ... 220-or-e2/
The Scandinavian airline still has question marks over the reliability of the Airbus A220 and Embraer E190-E2 it is looking at, CEO Rickard Gustafson said at the Q1 investor’s call on February 26.

AirBaltic published a 99.85% dispatch reliability for the A220:
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/airbalt ... ecks-a220/

While much is thanks to the Pratts getting up to a world class 99.98% dispatch reliability vs prior (now fixed) issues:

https://50skyshades.com/news/manufactur ... eliability

I'm not saying you are wrong, I just see no evidence either way with SAS. Now, with how cheap used E1s are now, a temporary solution of E1s makes sense. Wet leases are expensive and thus short term lift typically.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote :
I'm not saying you are wrong, I just see no evidence either way with SAS. Now, with how cheap used E1s are now, a temporary solution of E1s makes sense. Wet leases are expensive and thus short term lift typically.

The only evidence I can see is that SAS wetleases their regional fleet from X-Fly ( Estonia ) which will get four E195 soon.
https://www.aviationnepal.com/xfly-decides-to-introduce-embraer-e195-jets/ scroll down to "About Xfly"
I agree with you that this can only be a temporary solution, when keeping in mind that SAS signed a deal with FPU ( flight personnel union ) to bring the jobs to Denmark under Dane conditions and the CEO of SAS was talking about A220 or E2 jets.
I can`t get rid of the idea at the time when ALC delivered the first A321neoLR to SAS and Udvar Hazy offered them a great deal for an A220 ?

oldJoe wrote:

lightsaber wrote :
I'm not saying you are wrong, I just see no evidence either way with SAS. Now, with how cheap used E1s are now, a temporary solution of E1s makes sense. Wet leases are expensive and thus short term lift typically.

The only evidence I can see is that SAS wetleases their regional fleet from X-Fly ( Estonia ) which will get four E195 soon.
https://www.aviationnepal.com/xfly-decides-to-introduce-embraer-e195-jets/ scroll down to "About Xfly"
I agree with you that this can only be a temporary solution, when keeping in mind that SAS signed a deal with FPU ( flight personnel union ) to bring the jobs to Denmark under Dane conditions and the CEO of SAS was talking about A220 or E2 jets.
I can`t get rid of the idea at the time when ALC delivered the first A321neoLR to SAS and Udvar Hazy offered them a great deal for an A220 ?

I would grab my wallet pocket if Udvar-Hazy offered me a great deal. That said, the best A220 deals will be later delivery and those E195s could be wet leased and a later delivery A220 deal? I do a question mark as this is all speculation.

All the deals I noted I find fascinating. Mostly as I am a Pratt fan and I hope all the PurePower engines have opportunities.

Lightsaber

SAS' CEO confirms they have signed a Letter of Intent to buy the E195-E2, after considering the A220. The E2 will replace the last of the 737-700s.

The Norwegian airline, Wideroe, which were launch operator of the E190-E2, are very pleased with the aircraft. They are also in the market for more E2 jets. I was on the first commercial flight departing from BGO in 2018. Nice aircraft. Love those PW engines. I was looking forward to the SAS A220, as I fly with them regularly. To bad.

Source in Norwegian:
https://flysmart24.no/2021/09/24/sas-sk ... eroe-kopi/

reidar76 wrote:

SAS' CEO confirms they have signed a Letter of Intent to buy the E195-E2, after considering the A220. The E2 will replace the last of the 737-700s.

The Norwegian airline, Wideroe, which were launch operator of the E190-E2, are very pleased with the aircraft. They are also in the market for more E2 jets. I was on the first commercial flight departing from BGO in 2018. Nice aircraft. Love those PW engines. I was looking forward to the SAS A220, as I fly with them regularly. To bad.

Source in Norwegian:
https://flysmart24.no/2021/09/24/sas-sk ... eroe-kopi/

I read the translated version and could only find a reference to a press manager indicating SAS signing an LOI for a small number of E195. The rest of the analysis appears to suggest a final decison between A220 and E2 in early 2022. This LOI could be SAS firming a lease arrangment as mentioned in earlier posts and authors using that to infer that this could provide an advantage for Embraer with the E2. Relying on E195 would follow what Breeze did with their deal with Azul and others until they had their long term fleet establsihed.

Also translated: -" We expect to have new cards and medium-haul aircraft in place under our own auspices next spring. Given the market uncertainty, it is not yet possible to make long-term decisions regarding the aircraft fleet, he says.
The choice for SAS has reportedly been between Embraer and the European airline's Airbus A220."

I could find no press releases supporting a deal or letter of intent for a new fleet.

A220 would be perfect for SAS, several routes where the competition especially EZ, FR, E6 would only compete with larger planes more difficult to fill. Until of course an European Breeze style airline would be established.

If this SAS requirement is more towards 100-120 seats than towards 130-150 seats I wonder what the trade-off is between the E2s and A220's.
Engines, capacity and weights seem very close.

E195-E2 OEW: 35,700 kg (78,705 lb)
A220-100 OEW 35.220 kg (77,650 lb)

Interesting to see SAS apparently favours the E195E2's, like KLM. Good for competition, Congratulations to Embraer!

reidar76 wrote:

SAS' CEO confirms they have signed a Letter of Intent to buy the E195-E2, after considering the A220. The E2 will replace the last of the 737-700s.

The Norwegian airline, Wideroe, which were launch operator of the E190-E2, are very pleased with the aircraft. They are also in the market for more E2 jets. I was on the first commercial flight departing from BGO in 2018. Nice aircraft. Love those PW engines. I was looking forward to the SAS A220, as I fly with them regularly. To bad.

Source in Norwegian:
https://flysmart24.no/2021/09/24/sas-sk ... eroe-kopi/

Interesting. When translated, the article emphasizes multiple times the LoI is for a small number of E2-195. Then there is the danger I misinterpreted the translation, but it sounds like they are still deciding for the overall fleet.

Or as noted:

yyztpa2 wrote:

I read the translated version and could only find a reference to a press manager indicating SAS signing an LOI for a small number of E195. The rest of the analysis appears to suggest a final decison between A220 and E2 in early 2022. This LOI could be SAS firming a lease arrangment as mentioned in earlier posts and authors using that to infer that this could provide an advantage for Embraer with the E2.

I'm not sure how to interpret a small LoI in a competition to still be decided. To myself that means the A220 might or might not win some of SAS, in my opinion the odds favor Embraer. However, that link made it sound like negotiations were still in work. As I Pratt fan, either is a good win.

So that means, for the purposes of this thread we talk about, quoting my old post:

lightsaber wrote:

So to summarize, the campaigns believed to be ongoing:
--- strike SAS---
2. Green Africa
3. TrueJet
4. ALC (Any other leasing companies going back for seconds?)
5. ITA (ex-Alitalia)

Realized sales campaigns:
1. Azimuth (6)

Speculation on possible future sales campaigns:
1. Volotea (personally, a great match airline to aircraft, but nothing substantial to base it upon that I would call substantial)

Also add the possible 3 Croatia airlines.

One sales campaign advantage Embraer. Good for them. Dust off and move on...
Lightsaber

As far as my sources are telling me, SAS has signed a wet-lease agreement with XFly to upgauge some of its CRJs into larger ERJ195s. The airline has not settled yet if it wants to order regional jet themselves, or continue using the outsourced model they have in place today for these operations (CityJet and XFly with CRJ900s/ATR72s). I actually expect SAS to operate the A320neo as its smallest aircraft and leave the “regional” flying to partners as today. It has worked for them for many years.

Regarding Croatia Airlines, according to its post-COVID strategy created in cooperation with consultant firm BCG, the airline is planning to create a fleet around one aircraft type to replace both the DHC and the Airbuses in the fleet. According to the BCG plan, the DHC-8 is often too small, except for some short period in winter and the A320 often too large. They still have orders with Airbus for 4 A320neos, which they now think are too big, so they need to do something with them. On the other hand, the airline is basically broke, so financing new A220s might be a challenge.

Cheers!

lightsaber wrote:

Or as noted:

yyztpa2 wrote:

I read the translated version and could only find a reference to a press manager indicating SAS signing an LOI for a small number of E195. The rest of the analysis appears to suggest a final decison between A220 and E2 in early 2022. This LOI could be SAS firming a lease arrangment as mentioned in earlier posts and authors using that to infer that this could provide an advantage for Embraer with the E2.

I'm not sure how to interpret a small LoI in a competition to still be decided. To myself that means the A220 might or might not win some of SAS, in my opinion the odds favor Embraer. However, that link made it sound like negotiations were still in work. As I Pratt fan, either is a good win.

The LOI is probably there so that SAS can first sort out finance and cross the dots and tees in the actual contract. So that final decicison might be just a FID.

Does anyone know whether these are leased or bought?
How many 737-700 does SAS have which are to be replaced by the E2?

That story is not tied to any press release and appears to be hypothetical for the option of E2 SAS could have for a competition to be selected in 2022.

The mention of interim capacity is "a small number of Embraer E195s" which does not say E2. The alternative story about a wet lease, possible E195 from Azul(?), might make more sense. Fair to say the wet lease increases the likelihood of an E2 order but I don't think we're there yet. We've also seen Breeze take surplus Embraer while they build their fleet.

Similarly, Ibom Air wet leased interim A220 from EgyptAir with an intention to order their own fleet in 2022.
https://www.ibomair.com/press-release-i ... erational/
"Ibom Air is currently in negotiations with Airbus to procure a fleet of brand new A220s for deliveries commencing 4th quarter 2022."

vnauta wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Or as noted:

yyztpa2 wrote:

I read the translated version and could only find a reference to a press manager indicating SAS signing an LOI for a small number of E195. The rest of the analysis appears to suggest a final decison between A220 and E2 in early 2022. This LOI could be SAS firming a lease arrangment as mentioned in earlier posts and authors using that to infer that this could provide an advantage for Embraer with the E2.

I'm not sure how to interpret a small LoI in a competition to still be decided. To myself that means the A220 might or might not win some of SAS, in my opinion the odds favor Embraer. However, that link made it sound like negotiations were still in work. As I Pratt fan, either is a good win.

The LOI is probably there so that SAS can first sort out finance and cross the dots and tees in the actual contract. So that final decicison might be just a FID.

Does anyone know whether these are leased or bought?
How many 737-700 does SAS have which are to be replaced by the E2?

Once again, SAS hasn’t signed a LOI for E2s. They have signed a LOI with XFly in which they will fly up to 5 ERJ195s (so E1s) for SAS.

In total, SAS has 13 B737-700s remaining, of which 10 are currently in use.

Cheers!

LifelinerOne wrote:

vnauta wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Or as noted:


I'm not sure how to interpret a small LoI in a competition to still be decided. To myself that means the A220 might or might not win some of SAS, in my opinion the odds favor Embraer. However, that link made it sound like negotiations were still in work. As I Pratt fan, either is a good win.

The LOI is probably there so that SAS can first sort out finance and cross the dots and tees in the actual contract. So that final decicison might be just a FID.

Does anyone know whether these are leased or bought?
How many 737-700 does SAS have which are to be replaced by the E2?

Once again, SAS hasn’t signed a LOI for E2s. They have signed a LOI with XFly in which they will fly up to 5 ERJ195s (so E1s) for SAS.

In total, SAS has 13 B737-700s remaining, of which 10 are currently in use.

Cheers!

Oh... If an E1-195 LOI fora wet lease, then that has no impact on possible A220 sales. Interesting. It might reduce the quantity ordered, but that isn't the same as bringing in E2s. Due to the low price of prior generation aircraft (see our own Lease values threads), the rapid drop of prior generation pricing.

viewtopic.php?t=1460947
viewtopic.php?t=1422705

The A220 (both in Spring):
2019: A220 - $30.0 - 38.0M, $205-310,000
2021: A220-100 - $23.6 - 33.0M, $150-230,000
A220-300 - $27.9 - 37.3M, $170-260,000

E1-190 (didn't have E-195 in 2019 thread):
2019: EMB190 – $11.5 – 31.5M, $135-265,000
2021: EMB190 – $7.5 – 25.5M, $80-200,000
EMB190E2 - $23.3 - 29.0M, $150-220,000

We can see pressure on A220 pricing.
But note that the E2-190 is selling for less than the E-190 did in 2019 with low rates.

So you are correct. I need to be less pessimistic on SAS and the A220.

Lightsaber

AirFrance could double the A220 order:
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ai ... d-be-split
The carrier group could bump its existing commitment to Airbus’s smallest passenger jet, the A220, to as many as 120, Smith said. He was speaking a ceremony in Paris for the delivery of the first of the regional model that is part of a 60-plane order. Air France has options for 30 more A220s and purchase rights for 30 beyond that, and has called for Airbus to make a stretched version.

The link notes AF chose 148 seats in the A220, that configuration will help sell more.

While, everything I've read says an aircraft type needs 20+ operators, it is good news so many A220 buyers have increased their orders and AF might join. However, I personally find it more exciting when an airframe that has a limited customer base adds new operators. Hopefully a few of the speculated airlines sign orders in 2021.

Lightsaber

Lesailesduquebec indicating rumors of China certification may be underway due to potential for an upcoming order in China.
https://www.lesailesduquebec.com/

yyztpa2 wrote:

Lesailesduquebec indicating rumors of China certification may be underway due to potential for an upcoming order in China.
https://www.lesailesduquebec.com/

I have read, somewhere, the certification process is restarted, few days ago. As I know (or more correct, as it was said/have read it somewhere), it was on hold, as there was no order from China. So, as it is now re-startet again....I already thought about a possible order from China. Let us see, if there will be an undisclosed order in next days/weeks/ few month.

T4thH wrote:

yyztpa2 wrote:

Lesailesduquebec indicating rumors of China certification may be underway due to potential for an upcoming order in China.
https://www.lesailesduquebec.com/

I have read, somewhere, the certification process is restarted, few days ago. As I know (or more correct, as it was said/have read it somewhere), it was on hold, as there was no order from China. So, as it is now re-startet again....I already thought about a possible order from China. Let us see, if there will be an undisclosed order in next days/weeks/ few month.

With the manufacturing of A220 fuselages in China, I am surprised it took this long. To really discuss this goes into non-Av topics. We will see. With the C919 to be certified soon, I really am confused by this.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

T4thH wrote:

yyztpa2 wrote:

Lesailesduquebec indicating rumors of China certification may be underway due to potential for an upcoming order in China.
https://www.lesailesduquebec.com/

I have read, somewhere, the certification process is restarted, few days ago. As I know (or more correct, as it was said/have read it somewhere), it was on hold, as there was no order from China. So, as it is now re-startet again....I already thought about a possible order from China. Let us see, if there will be an undisclosed order in next days/weeks/ few month.

With the manufacturing of A220 fuselages in China, I am surprised it took this long. To really discuss this goes into non-Av topics. We will see. With the C919 to be certified soon, I really am confused by this.

Lightsaber

Recall in the early days of CSeries development that Bombardier and COMAC were discussing sharing technologies from the CS100/300 which would then complement the C919. During that time, there was suggestion that the the CS500 would not be developed to compete against the C919. This also suggests that the market addressed by the A220-100/300 is not in direct competition with the C919.
https://bombardier.com/en/media/news/co ... l-aircraft