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Stitch
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:18 pm

MoreLegRoomPLS wrote:
Last time I checked, the ASC606 adjustment for the B777 family was actually -135 (not -118).

This figure relates to the 777 family Orderbook that includes current generation 77W, 77F and 77L and also next generation 77X. Where did you get the -118 figure? Are we sure that not a larger part is actually related to current generation 777?


118 of that 135 are specifically 777-8 and 777-9 models per Boeing statements, which leaves 17 "other" 777 family as-yet built frames on the "endangered list".

An easy 5 are the 777-300ERs on order with Pakistan International Airlines as those will never be built. The 6 777F for Volga-Dnepr UK Ltd could also be at risk considering how flaky they have been as of late. So that would be 11. Aeroflot has one 777-300ER left that has yet to enter the FAL and the two that have been built were flown direct to storage, but recently returned to Everett. China Southern has a 777-300ER in storage (currently listed as as UFO per Boeing policy on Chinese orders prior to placement by CASC so that one could be considered at risk due if we take political climate into consideration.
 
MoreLegRoomPLS
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:24 pm

Opus99 wrote:
MoreLegRoomPLS wrote:
Last time I checked, the ASC606 adjustment for the B777 family was actually -135 (not -118).

This figure relates to the 777 family Orderbook that includes current generation 77W, 77F and 77L and also next generation 77X. Where did you get the -118 figure? Are we sure that not a larger part is actually related to current generation 777?

source: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries

I think Boeing specifically said 118. I believe

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN2A20A1


Very informative article! Thanks for sharing. So ASC606 adjustment splits in 118x 77X and 17x 77W/77F/77L.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:05 pm

Opus99 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Even Emirates wanted to move away from B777X.

I always thought a simple engine upgrade on B777-300ER would be a better option. But they already pop the balloon on this one.

I don't think that would've helped its cause any which way. in terms of sales at least


Not really, but it's a fast and cheap alternatives compared to B777X. It's not gonna sell well, just like B777X or A350-1000. But it would be hella cheaper and easy to do to fill up the gap.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:04 pm

Interesting article from FG quoting Boeing CEO Calhoun:

“If I had a clean slate of paper today, and [there] wasn’t a 777X loaded in my development pipeline, would [Boeing] want to do it again? The answer is, absolutely. Yes,” Calhoun said on 3 June during an investor conference hosted by AllianceBernstein.

“It’ll have a 40- or 50-year run,” he added. “I have lots of confidence in it.”

Calhoun cited the 777-9’s cost per seat (and by volume of cargo) as a key attribute, and noted that competing jets like 747s and Airbus A380s are at the end of their production runs.

Analysts likewise suspect the 777X programme will succeed ultimately – that sales will accelerate in the coming decade and that Boeing will tap into the cargo market with a freighter derivative.

Ref: FG: Why the ill-timed 777X can still be a winner for Boeing

Yet the article goes on to offer other voices saying the demand for the aircraft won't pick up till the end of the decade or the 2030s due to availability of young and cheap 77Ws, and points out that Boeing has taken a $6.5B write down on the program and cut the accounting block from 400 to 350 units.

It pretty much gives the lie to Calhoun's statement. Clearly no sensible CEO would want to spend ten years of development time and be $6.5B in the red to develop a product that will probably take another decade to break even, even if there is 40 years of presumably positive revenue life cycle after that. Yet he has no choice but say something like this: the program cost is almost all sunk cost now, the wing plant and FAL is built and the only way to re-establish a working relationship with FAA seems to be to keep working on the various certification efforts (MAX7, MAX10, 777X) that Boeing has in the development pipeline. Kind of a shame that this is where things are, but this is indeed where things are.
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BrianDromey
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yet he has no choice but say something like this: the program cost is almost all sunk cost now, the wing plant and FAL is built and the only way to re-establish a working relationship with FAA seems to be to keep working on the various certification efforts (MAX7, MAX10, 777X) that Boeing has in the development pipeline. Kind of a shame that this is where things are, but this is indeed where things are.


I guess the 77X will have a fair amount of revenue generation in terms of support and parts for customer airlines. I think Boeing will sell this variant very much like the pre-787 era. There wont be daily orders for hundreds, but small orders for 6-12 copies. I think many 77W customers will roll over to smaller 789/A359 size aircraft, and for the 779 customer list will look a lot like the A380 operator list. Thats not to say the 77X program is a disaster, it just wont measure up to the 787 and 77W programs that have gone before.

Boeing has a real strategic conundrum going forward - I don't see the obvious gap in the market for their next clean-sheet aircraft. their best bet might be a 787neo. A new single aisle risks Airbus further upgrading the A320 platform and leaving the 100-160 seat market to the lighter A220. The space where the A359 is a bit too much and the A330neo not desired is probably Airbus weakest area for the coming decade.
Single Aisle <150 seats - The E2 and A220 adequately cover this and sales figures aren't astonishing for two manufacturers, let alone three.
Single Aisle 150-250 seats - Airbus could optimise the A320neo family with different fuselage lengths, new wings, further PIPs or an even-newer Engine Option. Is the only Boeing option here to go with an open rotor or unducted fan for the efficiency?
MOM - A321XLR or the hypothetical A322 with a new wing can be brought to market before Boeing could bring a clean-sheet design to market.
Medium Widebody - 787neo? Is there engine technology out there to make this worthwhile?
Large Widebody - 77X & A350-1000 have this segment more than covered.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:39 pm

I think much will depend on the real world performance of the 779, which at this point is unknown. The 77W greatly exceeded market expectations in terms of performance, and as a consequence, it sold like hotcakes and dominated the widebody market for many years.

But if the 779 ends up being a simple derivative with marginal improvements in fuel burn, CASM, and performance it could be another A330neo that is struggling to find a toe hold in the market.

Right now, we really don't know.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:45 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
I think much will depend on the real world performance of the 779, which at this point is unknown.


Surely that is known by now, didn't we have in reports in recent history have a 77X customer complaining they have not received the performance data with Boeing executives scampering to meet with them soon thereafter ?
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:43 pm

zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I think much will depend on the real world performance of the 779, which at this point is unknown.


Surely that is known by now, didn't we have in reports in recent history have a 77X customer complaining they have not received the performance data with Boeing executives scampering to meet with them soon thereafter ?



By all means, if you have access to the 779 performance data or it has been made public, I think we would all love to see it. :)


Thanks!!
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:52 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I think much will depend on the real world performance of the 779, which at this point is unknown.


Surely that is known by now, didn't we have in reports in recent history have a 77X customer complaining they have not received the performance data with Boeing executives scampering to meet with them soon thereafter ?



By all means, if you have access to the 779 performance data or it has been made public, I think we would all love to see it. :)


Thanks!!

Not only that but it seems not much noise seems to be coming out of STCs mouth for some time. Maybe he’s been given the break he was clearly begging for
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:00 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
By all means, if you have access to the 779 performance data or it has been made public, I think we would all love to see it. :)


Since when is it a prerequisite for information to be made public before it is categorized as being known ?
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:20 pm

zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
By all means, if you have access to the 779 performance data or it has been made public, I think we would all love to see it. :)


Since when is it a prerequisite for information to be made public before it is categorized as being known ?



Funny, but you said surely it is known. :). Really? By whom? I guess you were just making an assumption. I think I will wait for the data to be made public.


Thanks!!
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:07 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
Funny, but you said surely it is known. :). Really? By whom? I guess you were just making an assumption. I think I will wait for the data to be made public.


The data will never be made public, Boeing has never released that sort of data for any of its aircraft to the public before. People who have access to that data are under NDAs.

Again to try and suggest that data is unknown unless it is made public is not the way any aircraft program has gone before.
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:49 am

zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Funny, but you said surely it is known. :). Really? By whom? I guess you were just making an assumption. I think I will wait for the data to be made public.


The data will never be made public, Boeing has never released that sort of data for any of its aircraft to the public before. People who have access to that data are under NDAs.

Again to try and suggest that data is unknown unless it is made public is not the way any aircraft program has gone before.


Of course it will be made public. You really worry too much. :) You claim to have precise fuel burn numbers for all kinds of aircraft, right? That's what is meant by real world data, Understand? I think you do. :) Once the aircraft is operational with airlines the performance information will be known by all kinds of people. Maybe even someone like you.

But see the 779 is still in flight testing. Understand? So operational data in the real world with various airline flying all kinds of different missions is not publicly known yet. But it will be grasshopper. Have patience.


Thanks!!
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:53 am

zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I think much will depend on the real world performance of the 779, which at this point is unknown.


Surely that is known by now, didn't we have in reports in recent history have a 77X customer complaining they have not received the performance data with Boeing executives scampering to meet with them soon thereafter ?


Your example pretty much defeats your whole point. Sounds like the data isn’t complete and Boeing hasn’t shared data, which the customers want. So, the “real world performance” is not known.
 
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zeke
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:21 am

jbs2886 wrote:
Your example pretty much defeats your whole point. Sounds like the data isn’t complete and Boeing hasn’t shared data, which the customers want. So, the “real world performance” is not known.


That is not the way it works, Boeing already had performance data before the first aircraft was ever built, and that was shared with airlines under NDAs so they could assess the airframe before purchasing. These 10+ hour long flights, takeoff/landing tests, stall tests etc they have been doing is validating/tweaking the models, it is not creating them from scratch.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:27 am

BrianDromey wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Yet he has no choice but say something like this: the program cost is almost all sunk cost now, the wing plant and FAL is built and the only way to re-establish a working relationship with FAA seems to be to keep working on the various certification efforts (MAX7, MAX10, 777X) that Boeing has in the development pipeline. Kind of a shame that this is where things are, but this is indeed where things are.

I guess the 77X will have a fair amount of revenue generation in terms of support and parts for customer airlines. I think Boeing will sell this variant very much like the pre-787 era. There wont be daily orders for hundreds, but small orders for 6-12 copies. I think many 77W customers will roll over to smaller 789/A359 size aircraft, and for the 779 customer list will look a lot like the A380 operator list. Thats not to say the 77X program is a disaster, it just wont measure up to the 787 and 77W programs that have gone before.

Boeing has a real strategic conundrum going forward - I don't see the obvious gap in the market for their next clean-sheet aircraft. their best bet might be a 787neo. A new single aisle risks Airbus further upgrading the A320 platform and leaving the 100-160 seat market to the lighter A220. The space where the A359 is a bit too much and the A330neo not desired is probably Airbus weakest area for the coming decade.
Single Aisle <150 seats - The E2 and A220 adequately cover this and sales figures aren't astonishing for two manufacturers, let alone three.
Single Aisle 150-250 seats - Airbus could optimise the A320neo family with different fuselage lengths, new wings, further PIPs or an even-newer Engine Option. Is the only Boeing option here to go with an open rotor or unducted fan for the efficiency?
MOM - A321XLR or the hypothetical A322 with a new wing can be brought to market before Boeing could bring a clean-sheet design to market.
Medium Widebody - 787neo? Is there engine technology out there to make this worthwhile?
Large Widebody - 77X & A350-1000 have this segment more than covered.

Boeing had a real strategic conundrum in 2013 and that's what gave us 777X. Start with the cheap and cheerful 772A that lots of airlines can find a role for, keep adding models as engine thrust and reserve strength in the design allow and you kind of paint yourself into a corner with a product with lots of payload-range that some airlines will pay a lot of money for, but is not as generally useful thus does not create the same kind of production volume. The only way to reset this trend line is to give yourself a clean sheet of paper, something already being proposed as Y3. Well, that wasn't going to happen in 2013 as the 787's problems were still fresh on everyone's mind, especially Boeing's board. Yet I wonder what their reaction would be if you told them that the 777X EIS wasn't going to be 2019 it was going to be 2023, and before then you would be taking a write off for $6.5B as being in essence unrecoverable, and you'd cut your prediction of the program's output by fifty aircraft too?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
NZ321
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:54 am

zeke wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Your example pretty much defeats your whole point. Sounds like the data isn’t complete and Boeing hasn’t shared data, which the customers want. So, the “real world performance” is not known.


That is not the way it works, Boeing already had performance data before the first aircraft was ever built, and that was shared with airlines under NDAs so they could assess the airframe before purchasing. These 10+ hour long flights, takeoff/landing tests, stall tests etc they have been doing is validating/tweaking the models, it is not creating them from scratch.


Yes Zeke - Boeing have some data from design modelling and acceptance of orders. Validating or not as the case may be; we have heard the aircraft is over-weight.

Normally during production testing we get some information from manufacturers into the media about the test and certification programme that talks positively about the aircraft, its performance and handling characteristics, etc. Key messaging. This has not been flowing with the 777x. Boeing has been quiet and on the heals of the 737 Max issues, and plenty of change within Boeing management, all we have is published notices of problems and many delays.

A well known Airline CEO is recently on record for saying that they wouldn't take delivery of the aircraft if it didn't meet it's delivery timeline or performance specs. Why do they say such things publicly with no response in Boeing's messaging over the last couple of months? We can speculate - and it's no wonder there is precisely that, speculation, given what else has been in the media, regarding the jet's certification.

The statements from Calhoun quoted above don't match the messages coming from one of their top customers. Boeing has not countered this with any statements reported here. This does not provide confidence to the public that the certification is on track or meeting or beating its promised performance specs. With Airlines making statements as mentioned, why would Boeing not do this? What's to lose? Yes, the data at this stage in any test programme is confidential - NDA. But that doesn't mean a vacuum of info, either. Boeing know how to do this. Or at least they did. Airlines may or may not be on board. What we have is ambiguity.

We know things are significantly delayed and that the FAA is taking a closer look than in recent times at the process for this. We know there are some significant issues which have emerged in the certification process for attention that have pushed out the certification date by years beyond that originally promised to launch customers. And this is a derivative rather than totally new airframe. Some Airlines will be happy to accept the delays given the current situation and the altered certification and delivery timeline. Others, less so. To be talking about relatively few deliveries (see above) in the next 10 years for a derivative aircraft which is said to be overweight and no messaging in the media on efficiency / performance to this point - doesn't engender a whole lot of confidence in the product.

Therein lies one reason why people in this forum and outside, including some at airlines, may be making the statements they are....
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 2:19 pm

NZ321 wrote:
zeke wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Your example pretty much defeats your whole point. Sounds like the data isn’t complete and Boeing hasn’t shared data, which the customers want. So, the “real world performance” is not known.


That is not the way it works, Boeing already had performance data before the first aircraft was ever built, and that was shared with airlines under NDAs so they could assess the airframe before purchasing. These 10+ hour long flights, takeoff/landing tests, stall tests etc they have been doing is validating/tweaking the models, it is not creating them from scratch.


Yes Zeke - Boeing have some data from design modelling and acceptance of orders. Validating or not as the case may be; we have heard the aircraft is over-weight.

Normally during production testing we get some information from manufacturers into the media about the test and certification programme that talks positively about the aircraft, its performance and handling characteristics, etc. Key messaging. This has not been flowing with the 777x. Boeing has been quiet and on the heals of the 737 Max issues, and plenty of change within Boeing management, all we have is published notices of problems and many delays.

A well known Airline CEO is recently on record for saying that they wouldn't take delivery of the aircraft if it didn't meet it's delivery timeline or performance specs. Why do they say such things publicly with no response in Boeing's messaging over the last couple of months? We can speculate - and it's no wonder there is precisely that, speculation, given what else has been in the media, regarding the jet's certification.

The statements from Calhoun quoted above don't match the messages coming from one of their top customers. Boeing has not countered this with any statements reported here. This does not provide confidence to the public that the certification is on track or meeting or beating its promised performance specs. With Airlines making statements as mentioned, why would Boeing not do this? What's to lose? Yes, the data at this stage in any test programme is confidential - NDA. But that doesn't mean a vacuum of info, either. Boeing know how to do this. Or at least they did. Airlines may or may not be on board. What we have is ambiguity.

We know things are significantly delayed and that the FAA is taking a closer look than in recent times at the process for this. We know there are some significant issues which have emerged in the certification process for attention that have pushed out the certification date by years beyond that originally promised to launch customers. And this is a derivative rather than totally new airframe. Some Airlines will be happy to accept the delays given the current situation and the altered certification and delivery timeline. Others, less so. To be talking about relatively few deliveries (see above) in the next 10 years for a derivative aircraft which is said to be overweight and no messaging in the media on efficiency / performance to this point - doesn't engender a whole lot of confidence in the product.

Therein lies one reason why people in this forum and outside, including some at airlines, may be making the statements they are....

There’s been one airline CEO who has made noise and nobody else. His motives are questioned generally anyway.

Secondly, has boeing made noise about the performance of its products in testing generally in the last few years.

MAX, -10? I have looked but I’ve not found. Other than the usual marketing stuff.

Also. Where did we hear the plane was overweight?

From airline customers I’ve actually heard more good stuff than bad stuff from airline CEOs in the past 6 months concerning the 777X. But people in this forum don’t want to see that.

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back

QR Akbar has praised the aircraft. Saying it’s very efficient (around 18-20% more than current 777s)

But it’s Tim Clark with an overexposed business who has now gone quiet after the rumoured Boeing visit (wonder why?) that we take his words as the gold standard.

Secondly Tim Clark had said if the aircraft had not met their specs then in the coming months they would look to make the switch to other aircraft. That we have not seen (yet). But we keep watching
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 2:22 pm

Revelation wrote:
BrianDromey wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Yet he has no choice but say something like this: the program cost is almost all sunk cost now, the wing plant and FAL is built and the only way to re-establish a working relationship with FAA seems to be to keep working on the various certification efforts (MAX7, MAX10, 777X) that Boeing has in the development pipeline. Kind of a shame that this is where things are, but this is indeed where things are.

I guess the 77X will have a fair amount of revenue generation in terms of support and parts for customer airlines. I think Boeing will sell this variant very much like the pre-787 era. There wont be daily orders for hundreds, but small orders for 6-12 copies. I think many 77W customers will roll over to smaller 789/A359 size aircraft, and for the 779 customer list will look a lot like the A380 operator list. Thats not to say the 77X program is a disaster, it just wont measure up to the 787 and 77W programs that have gone before.

Boeing has a real strategic conundrum going forward - I don't see the obvious gap in the market for their next clean-sheet aircraft. their best bet might be a 787neo. A new single aisle risks Airbus further upgrading the A320 platform and leaving the 100-160 seat market to the lighter A220. The space where the A359 is a bit too much and the A330neo not desired is probably Airbus weakest area for the coming decade.
Single Aisle <150 seats - The E2 and A220 adequately cover this and sales figures aren't astonishing for two manufacturers, let alone three.
Single Aisle 150-250 seats - Airbus could optimise the A320neo family with different fuselage lengths, new wings, further PIPs or an even-newer Engine Option. Is the only Boeing option here to go with an open rotor or unducted fan for the efficiency?
MOM - A321XLR or the hypothetical A322 with a new wing can be brought to market before Boeing could bring a clean-sheet design to market.
Medium Widebody - 787neo? Is there engine technology out there to make this worthwhile?
Large Widebody - 77X & A350-1000 have this segment more than covered.

Boeing had a real strategic conundrum in 2013 and that's what gave us 777X. Start with the cheap and cheerful 772A that lots of airlines can find a role for, keep adding models as engine thrust and reserve strength in the design allow and you kind of paint yourself into a corner with a product with lots of payload-range that some airlines will pay a lot of money for, but is not as generally useful thus does not create the same kind of production volume. The only way to reset this trend line is to give yourself a clean sheet of paper, something already being proposed as Y3. Well, that wasn't going to happen in 2013 as the 787's problems were still fresh on everyone's mind, especially Boeing's board. Yet I wonder what their reaction would be if you told them that the 777X EIS wasn't going to be 2019 it was going to be 2023, and before then you would be taking a write off for $6.5B as being in essence unrecoverable, and you'd cut your prediction of the program's output by fifty aircraft too?

I think they would’ve still done it. Why? As with everything under the roof of Boeing. The business case is almost sound but the execution is so damn poor that the business case now becomes irrelevant you just have to get the damn thing out the door
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:40 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Also. Where did we hear the plane was overweight?

I too would like a solid reference before it is treated as gospel.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 5:49 am

Opus99 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
zeke wrote:

That is not the way it works, Boeing already had performance data before the first aircraft was ever built, and that was shared with airlines under NDAs so they could assess the airframe before purchasing. These 10+ hour long flights, takeoff/landing tests, stall tests etc they have been doing is validating/tweaking the models, it is not creating them from scratch.


Yes Zeke - Boeing have some data from design modelling and acceptance of orders. Validating or not as the case may be; we have heard the aircraft is over-weight.

Normally during production testing we get some information from manufacturers into the media about the test and certification programme that talks positively about the aircraft, its performance and handling characteristics, etc. Key messaging. This has not been flowing with the 777x. Boeing has been quiet and on the heals of the 737 Max issues, and plenty of change within Boeing management, all we have is published notices of problems and many delays.

A well known Airline CEO is recently on record for saying that they wouldn't take delivery of the aircraft if it didn't meet it's delivery timeline or performance specs. Why do they say such things publicly with no response in Boeing's messaging over the last couple of months? We can speculate - and it's no wonder there is precisely that, speculation, given what else has been in the media, regarding the jet's certification.

The statements from Calhoun quoted above don't match the messages coming from one of their top customers. Boeing has not countered this with any statements reported here. This does not provide confidence to the public that the certification is on track or meeting or beating its promised performance specs. With Airlines making statements as mentioned, why would Boeing not do this? What's to lose? Yes, the data at this stage in any test programme is confidential - NDA. But that doesn't mean a vacuum of info, either. Boeing know how to do this. Or at least they did. Airlines may or may not be on board. What we have is ambiguity.

We know things are significantly delayed and that the FAA is taking a closer look than in recent times at the process for this. We know there are some significant issues which have emerged in the certification process for attention that have pushed out the certification date by years beyond that originally promised to launch customers. And this is a derivative rather than totally new airframe. Some Airlines will be happy to accept the delays given the current situation and the altered certification and delivery timeline. Others, less so. To be talking about relatively few deliveries (see above) in the next 10 years for a derivative aircraft which is said to be overweight and no messaging in the media on efficiency / performance to this point - doesn't engender a whole lot of confidence in the product.

Therein lies one reason why people in this forum and outside, including some at airlines, may be making the statements they are....

There’s been one airline CEO who has made noise and nobody else. His motives are questioned generally anyway.

Secondly, has boeing made noise about the performance of its products in testing generally in the last few years.

MAX, -10? I have looked but I’ve not found. Other than the usual marketing stuff.

Also. Where did we hear the plane was overweight?

From airline customers I’ve actually heard more good stuff than bad stuff from airline CEOs in the past 6 months concerning the 777X. But people in this forum don’t want to see that.

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back

QR Akbar has praised the aircraft. Saying it’s very efficient (around 18-20% more than current 777s)

But it’s Tim Clark with an overexposed business who has now gone quiet after the rumoured Boeing visit (wonder why?) that we take his words as the gold standard.

Secondly Tim Clark had said if the aircraft had not met their specs then in the coming months they would look to make the switch to other aircraft. That we have not seen (yet). But we keep watching


Well said. And I know this is airliners.net and as so often happens, in lieu of solid information, people tend to speculate. It is human nature. The facts will come out, but Boeing appears to playing this very close to the vest. With their recent woes I would say that is probably a smart strategy.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:32 am

May I remind you to provide links to your sources when stating facts, thanks.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 7:25 am

https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-boei ... ery-delay/

“We stand by our 777-9 orders… We think it is the right aircraft for us, especially now that it is coming later.“ - Lufthansa CEO

QRs comments can be found on his interview with simple flying which is on YouTube

https://youtu.be/1B7SiaLbP1Y
 
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zeke
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:00 am

NZ321 wrote:
Normally during production testing we get some information from manufacturers into the media about the test and certification programme that talks positively about the aircraft, its performance and handling characteristics, etc. Key messaging. This has not been flowing with the 777x. Boeing has been quiet and on the heals of the 737 Max issues, and plenty of change within Boeing management, all we have is published notices of problems and many delays.


This is true in normal times, however this is far from normal, both for customer airlines and the manufacturers.

All I have heard is the performance is "as expected", I know some of our pilots have flown the Boeing engineering simulators a number of times before and after the flight testing started and have been neutral on performance. That to me means no big surprises either way on the way the aircraft as publicly described.
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:03 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Once the aircraft is operational with airlines the performance information will be known by all kinds of people. Maybe even someone like you.

But see the 779 is still in flight testing. Understand? So operational data in the real world with various airline flying all kinds of different missions is not publicly known yet. But it will be grasshopper. Have patience.
Thanks!!


Good call ElroyJetson,
777/A350 Pilots like Zeke might indeed have that info to program the flight computers, calaculate/check take-off distances etc. Same for fuel burn, checking quantities, monitoring the indicators for hours should give him a pretty accurate picture. Having patience with some users is another challenge.
Thanks!
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:07 pm

keesje wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Once the aircraft is operational with airlines the performance information will be known by all kinds of people. Maybe even someone like you.

But see the 779 is still in flight testing. Understand? So operational data in the real world with various airline flying all kinds of different missions is not publicly known yet. But it will be grasshopper. Have patience.
Thanks!!


Good call ElroyJetson,
777/A350 Pilots like Zeke might indeed have that info to program the flight computers, calaculate/check take-off distances etc. Same for fuel burn, checking quantities, monitoring the indicators for hours should give him a pretty accurate picture. Having patience with some users is another challenge.
Thanks!


That is exactly what I meant by real world data. Once the 779 is flying with airlines, route planners, pilots, flight dispatchers and others will have a very good idea about an aircraft's performance.

Case in point: When UA used a 787-10 from IAD-PEK or from SFO-AKL many here on a.net did not think the frame had the capability. But the airline and its key personnel knew. Ditto comments made about the A359 flying JNB-ATL for DL. The information will be known. Unfortunately it will take time. Patience. :)
 
bigb
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:53 pm

keesje wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Once the aircraft is operational with airlines the performance information will be known by all kinds of people. Maybe even someone like you.

But see the 779 is still in flight testing. Understand? So operational data in the real world with various airline flying all kinds of different missions is not publicly known yet. But it will be grasshopper. Have patience.
Thanks!!


Good call ElroyJetson,
777/A350 Pilots like Zeke might indeed have that info to program the flight computers, calaculate/check take-off distances etc. Same for fuel burn, checking quantities, monitoring the indicators for hours should give him a pretty accurate picture. Having patience with some users is another challenge.
Thanks!


I doubt any pilots or let alone anyone are privy will have that kind of information regarding the 777X outside of Boeing to be honest at this stage of the game....... To make make claims/estimates regarding 777X performance is all opinion at the moment based on reading between the lines that is out there which isn’t much to begin with.
 
DUSZRH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 7:23 pm

Opus99 wrote:

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back


Yet they deferred 6 aircraft to the 2030’s (so taking only 14 aircraft in the 20’s) and decided to order additional 350s for the same time frame (2025-2030) and are taking additional 787s and 350s short term.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 7:30 pm

DUSZRH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back


Yet they deferred 6 aircraft to the 2030’s (so taking only 14 aircraft in the 20’s) and decided to order additional 350s for the same time frame (2025-2030) and are taking additional 787s and 350s short term.

Nobody’s arguing with you. My point was around what we were hearing from CEOs. Since the argument is around what airline CEOs are saying about the jet. Notice my why is STCs the gold standard
 
DUSZRH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:01 pm

Opus99 wrote:
DUSZRH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back


Yet they deferred 6 aircraft to the 2030’s (so taking only 14 aircraft in the 20’s) and decided to order additional 350s for the same time frame (2025-2030) and are taking additional 787s and 350s short term.

Nobody’s arguing with you. My point was around what we were hearing from CEOs. Since the argument is around what airline CEOs are saying about the jet. Notice my why is STCs the gold standard


Airline CEOs are not neutral players. Some are negotiating. Others might be issuing positive releases, to keep investors happy.

The only “hard” currency is orders and cancellation/deferrals. So the positive News of SQ increasing their order (meaning the numbers/performance is at least okayish) and others cancelling/deferring and moving to smaller planes (meaning a shift of the market and/or numbers not so much better that it’s attractive to opt for a larger plane).

EK is a special case, as (most of us believe, I think) they’ve overordered and are looking to get out of commitments.
 
ben7x
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:53 pm

DUSZRH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back


Yet they deferred 6 aircraft to the 2030’s (so taking only 14 aircraft in the 20’s) and decided to order additional 350s for the same time frame (2025-2030) and are taking additional 787s and 350s short term.


Can you give a link for the deferral? Haven’t read that before yet. But sounds possible.
 
DUSZRH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:42 pm

ben7x wrote:
DUSZRH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back


Yet they deferred 6 aircraft to the 2030’s (so taking only 14 aircraft in the 20’s) and decided to order additional 350s for the same time frame (2025-2030) and are taking additional 787s and 350s short term.


Can you give a link for the deferral? Haven’t read that before yet. But sounds possible.


Two sources:

1 - There was site listing Lufthansas fleet, which often had good sources. They listed delivery dates for the last 6 of the 77X and it was 3 each in either 30 and 31 or 31 and 32.

2 - In the Annual assembly there was a comment by Spohr that they were to accept "175 aircraft until 2030". At the same time there was this press release of delivery dates for all the other aircraft on order: https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsr ... craft.html

and then simple arithmetic. Oh the comment is in there as well: 175 aircraft within this decade. 107 neos, 1 A223, 25 B787, 1 77F, (45-17 delivered =) 28 A350s leaves 14 77X.
 
Rekoff
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Mon Jul 26, 2021 10:57 am

Opus99 wrote:

Also. Where did we hear the plane was overweight?

From airline customers I’ve actually heard more good stuff than bad stuff from airline CEOs in the past 6 months concerning the 777X. But people in this forum don’t want to see that.

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back

QR Akbar has praised the aircraft. Saying it’s very efficient gains (around 18-20% more than current 777s)



It's rather ironic you're asking someone to provide a source for their claimed overweight rumor yet you yourself don't provide a source to a similar and rather dubious claim. 18-20% more fuel efficïent, really?

Here's Boeing's own statement on expected fuel efficiency, which is 12% vs competition: https://www.boeing-me.com/products-and- ... /777X.page

If that stated competition is the A350K, why didn't it win Project Sunrise? Should have been a slam dunk.
The GE9X is expected to have a 10% gain over the GE90, so another 8-10% from the wing plus potential weight increase seems very ambitious.
https://www.ge.com/news/sites/default/f ... raphic.pdf

So I'm curious for Akbar's statement.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:03 pm

Rekoff wrote:
It's rather ironic you're asking someone to provide a source for their claimed overweight rumor yet you yourself don't provide a source to a similar and rather dubious claim. 18-20% more fuel efficïent, really?

He provided a source which was a u2b video that I didn't bother watching since it's all marketing nonsense.

Rekoff wrote:
Here's Boeing's own statement on expected fuel efficiency, which is 12% vs competition: https://www.boeing-me.com/products-and- ... /777X.page

If that stated competition is the A350K, why didn't it win Project Sunrise? Should have been a slam dunk.

It says it has "12 percent lower fuel consumption and 10 percent lower operating costs than the competition", yet then goes on to say "the 777-9 is in a class by itself" and the 777-9 "doesn’t have a competitor":

The 777X will be the largest and most-efficient twin-engine jet in the world, with 12 percent lower fuel consumption and 10 percent lower operating costs than the competition. The family includes the 777-8 and the 777-9 – both designed to respond to market needs and customer preferences. The 777-8 competes directly with the A350-1000, while the 777-9 is in a class by itself.

Opening new growth opportunities for airlines, the 777-9 seats 400-425 passengers with a range of 7,600 nautical miles (14,075 km). In addition, the 777-9 will have the lowest operating cost per seat of any commercial airplane. The 777-9 is the only twin-engine sized in this market space and doesn’t have a competitor.

More marketing nonsense. Not worth the time and energy to try to make sense out of nonsense. My only guess is they are trying to posit the 747-8i as the competitor, or perhaps even the A380, but they never bother defining who they think the competition for the 779 is.
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:08 pm

Rekoff wrote:
Opus99 wrote:

Also. Where did we hear the plane was overweight?

From airline customers I’ve actually heard more good stuff than bad stuff from airline CEOs in the past 6 months concerning the 777X. But people in this forum don’t want to see that.

LH has said it’s the perfect aircraft for them when demand comes back

QR Akbar has praised the aircraft. Saying it’s very efficient gains (around 18-20% more than current 777s)



It's rather ironic you're asking someone to provide a source for their claimed overweight rumor yet you yourself don't provide a source to a similar and rather dubious claim. 18-20% more fuel efficïent, really?

Here's Boeing's own statement on expected fuel efficiency, which is 12% vs competition: https://www.boeing-me.com/products-and- ... /777X.page

If that stated competition is the A350K, why didn't it win Project Sunrise? Should have been a slam dunk.
The GE9X is expected to have a 10% gain over the GE90, so another 8-10% from the wing plus potential weight increase seems very ambitious.
https://www.ge.com/news/sites/default/f ... raphic.pdf

So I'm curious for Akbar's statement.

If you scroll down the thread. You’ll see my post after that. Thank you
 
tomcat
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
Rekoff wrote:

The 777X will be the largest and most-efficient twin-engine jet in the world, with 12 percent lower fuel consumption and 10 percent lower operating costs than the competition.
Opening new growth opportunities for airlines, the 777-9 seats 400-425 passengers with a range of 7,600 nautical miles (14,075 km). In addition, the 777-9 will have the lowest operating cost per seat of any commercial airplane. The 777-9 is the only twin-engine sized in this market space and [b]doesn’t have a competitor.

More marketing nonsense. Not worth the time and energy to try to make sense out of nonsense. My only guess is they are trying to posit the 747-8i as the competitor, or perhaps even the A380, but they never bother defining who they think the competition for the 779 is.



Ok, maybe this is all marketing nonsense but let's notice that some figures are now looking better than previously presented by Boeing. Now we have:
12 percent lower fuel consumption than the competition

and
a range of 7,600 nautical miles


While previously, it was:
the 777X will deliver 10 percent lower fuel use than the competition

and a range of
7,285 nmi (13,500 km)


https://www.boeing.com/commercial/777x/

Is Boeing getting less conservative now that they have started to accumulate flight data?
 
mig17
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Mon Jul 26, 2021 4:33 pm

tomcat wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Rekoff wrote:


More marketing nonsense. Not worth the time and energy to try to make sense out of nonsense. My only guess is they are trying to posit the 747-8i as the competitor, or perhaps even the A380, but they never bother defining who they think the competition for the 779 is.



Ok, maybe this is all marketing nonsense but let's notice that some figures are now looking better than previously presented by Boeing. Now we have:
12 percent lower fuel consumption than the competition

and
a range of 7,600 nautical miles


While previously, it was:
the 777X will deliver 10 percent lower fuel use than the competition

and a range of
7,285 nmi (13,500 km)


https://www.boeing.com/commercial/777x/

Is Boeing getting less conservative now that they have started to accumulate flight data?

It is the opposite, the 12% and 7600 nm are older data than the current 10% and 7285 nm.
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