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Opus99
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Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:37 pm

I've seen a few of these pop up for other programs i.e A220 and 330NEO. so it made sense to have one here as well where there can be an opportunity to discuss potential sales, cancellations, conversions etc.

(Surprisingly) we've seen the 777X actually get orders this year from Singapore Airlines for 11 jets which is good.

We are still waiting to see what happens with China under the Biden Administration

But there are still many issues:

The 118 jets that sit within the ASC606 adjustments that are "iffy". I am of the opinion this figure will reduce as the decade goes on, I expect some carriers to cancel but I think in the second half of the decade I would expect to see some of them Back. I don't expect to see CX take their order if i am honest. I still expect Emirates to buy about a 100 Jets. I also don't expect Etihad to take more than 6 like they've said.

Recently Tim Clark said that the number of orders for the 350 and 787 are about the Same, which means i expect the 787 order to have gone up. I think we can look to the 11 re-confirmable 777x Orders would have probably switched to about 14-15 dreamliners. taking it up to 45 and the 350 at 50 (this is just my thinking) it could go up to 40 jets that are switched.

Then there's of course covid and the uncertainty around what the market will look like, i think the 777X will still have a place in it not to the level that the 77W did, but certainly a substantial role.

Singapore repeat order was nice to see, especially since its not from an ME3. I expect a repeat from LH and BA in due course. I also expect CN3, KE, TK, (Air France I don't really know, i'd be surprised) even though a split could work well 777X take the 4 class config (maybe only 15 units?) and A35K take the 3 class config , KLM (they're going all Boeing so i would expect them to eventually replace their 77Ws), I am one of the few that expect AA and United to purchase eventually. Swiss? they have a fairly high (4-class) premium cabin, they love their ERs and i think it could work well for them in the same number (12 units).

And theres of course the prospects of a freighter coming up which many believe is inevitable for Boeing to develop
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:07 pm

To be honest I don’t see an F version being announced in the next 3 years.

Boeing have their hands full stabilizing the 737 program and getting 777x test program and 737-10 tests back in order. Remember both of them are delayed at this point.

QR will most probably take all of theirs as will BA.

On the subject of BA they have some old B777-200ER’s that are long in the tooth, so either the A350 or B777-9 will get significant top ups. But not just yet.

ET continues to be a contender. But also just not yet.

AF maybe. At some point

KLM. As above

LH may want to top up. Not for a few years though.

CZ after relations between China and USA are on better terms.

Korean. They buy everything really.
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:46 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
To be honest I don’t see an F version being announced in the next 3 years..




Agreed. Especially considering that 777-300ER conversions are starting up soon, plus there should be enough 747s to be converted in the coming years. And also, is there any other customer interested than QR?
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Capricorn
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:51 pm

LH I don'r think that they will go for more. Spohr at one point already mentioned that there are too few A350 and too many 777X. But that was in 2017, so who knows if that is still accurate.

FRANKFURT - Lufthansa is struggling with its order for the Boeing 777X and sees advantages in a larger Airbus A350 fleet. "I'm not sure whether we actually ordered enough A350s and possibly too many 777Xs," said airline boss Carsten Spohr in an internal video address.


Source (in German): https://www.aero.de/news-26795/Lufthans ... stanz.html

LH is becoming more and more a multi hub airline. And with the guarantees they have given to the Austrian government for the OS bailout, they can't just abandon VIE and fuel more traffic through FRA or MUC. With the recent expansion in MUC as well as the strengthening of ZRH, I don't see a too strong prospect for more 777Xs. Maybe at the time the 747-8 retire, but that is still far in the future.

I think KE will definitely order some at one point, especially after the merger with OZ. NH probably will go for more as they might try to grow more internationally at the very slot constrained HND. The same goes for BA. BR would be a good candidate too as well as CI. The CN3 might order some, but as everything with China recently it is political, so it is hard to make a prediction.

AF is unlikely as the French state wants to gain a larger role in it and pressure AF to "support" Airbus. AF might not like this, but they can also not exist without the support. I would see the 777X as good candidate at KL, especially as AMS is also heavily slot constrained, but politics seems to intervene at AFKL more than at the other two of the EU3, so I refrain from making a prediction.

“If we support Air France, it is also – and I do not hide it ­– to support Airbus,” Le Maire said, adding that the government could also “massively” support Airbus directly if needed.


Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 42a22d1669

I don't think TK is likely as with the new IST airport they have an abundance of slots available and historically does not have many very large aircraft in its fleet.

Maybe TG as they seem to have an affinity for large aircraft. Maybe QF, but what if the order A350Ks for Project Sunrise? Maybe NZ as I have no idea about them. I see JL as unlikely as they still have A350Ks on order, but their fleet policy might change in the future.
 
inkjet7
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:24 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:

AF maybe. At some point

KLM. As above


AF would take A350-1000's first I guess. KLM deferred delivery of two brand new 77W's. The might order 787's in stead of 777's in the future.
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frigatebird
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:25 pm

Capricorn wrote:
AF is unlikely as the French state wants to gain a larger role in it and pressure AF to "support" Airbus. AF might not like this, but they can also not exist without the support. I would see the 777X as good candidate at KL, especially as AMS is also heavily slot constrained, but politics seems to intervene at AFKL more than at the other two of the EU3, so I refrain from making a prediction.

“If we support Air France, it is also – and I do not hide it ­– to support Airbus,” Le Maire said, adding that the government could also “massively” support Airbus directly if needed.


Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 42a22d1669


Agree about AF, IIRC they've said themselves the A350-1000 would be the largest aircraft for their future fleet. No 777X for them. KL is somewhat different. Their longhaul fleet will be all Boeing, a subfleet of A350s is not efficient. I believe even French government would agree. I do think they are pushing for a combined A32x narrowbody order for both AF and KL though, a much larger fish for Airbus IMO. If KL goes for the 777X, it won't be a huge order, 10-12 I guess, not more than 15 including options.
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:48 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
KLM deferred delivery of two brand new 77W's. The might order 787's in stead of 777's in the future.

It will really depend on how the market rebounds after COVID. If KL will be restricted in slots at AMS, they may replace the 77E's with 777X If not, they'll order more 787s. Or may even take the 10 787s AF now has in its fleet.

KL seems to be optimistic, they even renewed some leases on A330s recently :eyepopping:
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
inkjet7
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:55 pm

frigatebird wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
KLM deferred delivery of two brand new 77W's. The might order 787's in stead of 777's in the future.

It will really depend on how the market rebounds after COVID. If KL will be restricted in slots at AMS, they may replace the 77E's with 777X If not, they'll order more 787s. Or may even take the 10 787s AF now has in its fleet.

KL seems to be optimistic, they even renewed some leases on A330s recently


Pictures of PH-AOM without titles have appeared on facebook, so the information about this frame might have been wrong. Maybe KL will swap some of their A330's for AF's B787's? No 777X order for many years I'd say. It also depends on the outcome of the general election in the Netherlands next month and the following negotiations for a new government.
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:22 pm

I believe the 779 has a good long term future. Short term, not so much. I expect about half the current order book to be canceled eventually, and most of the other half to be deferred, some by as much as 10 years. All airlines are struggling, and will be for some time. For most of them the last thing they need is new planes, especially big ones. So the 779 will be the one the airlines will be most eager to defer or cancel. But that being said, once traffic returns to normal and airlines recover financially, the 779 will remain the airliner with the best CASM available, and will also be the largest one available. As such it will be attractive for many operators, and should sell enough to be profitable eventually. But it will never sell like the 77W did.
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ewt340
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:18 am

Even Emirates wanted to move away from B777X.

I always thought a simple engine upgrade on B777-300ER would be a better option. But they already pop the balloon on this one.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:57 am

ewt340 wrote:
Even Emirates wanted to move away from B777X.

I always thought a simple engine upgrade on B777-300ER would be a better option. But they already pop the balloon on this one.

I don't think that would've helped its cause any which way. in terms of sales at least
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:22 am

I think the 777X is a little bit too large to fulfill even most of the 77W replacement, with the 787 and A350 about and well-established there's far less need for it there, though the A380 replacement takes up some of the slack. I think the Chinese airlines will get some, but not many, otherwise I don't see a huge number of airlines that haven't already been mentioned ordering them. Unfortunately the 777X at the moment does look a little bit like the A380, even down to having the same customers (NH and CX aside). If your only real prospects are A380 customers plus scraps then there's a low ceiling on how many jets are needed.
 
tphuang
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:53 am

It would seem to me that 777X is getting less competitive over time.

Let's assume that it has a slight CASM advantage over A35K when doing the sales pitch a couple of years ago. Now with delayed entrance into service, A350 series will have more time for improvement before 779 enters service. The continued cancellations means fewer air frames to spread out the development cost and to lower production cost, so Boeing really can't price aggressively without taking huge losses. Again, that will keep the production cost high on 779. So even if they have a CASM advantage, A350s can overcome that with more aggressive pricing. Fewer 779 around also could increase maintenance cost.

On top of that, the post-COVID environment is accelerating the trend toward smaller aircraft on longer haul routes. All of which favors 78J and hurts 779.
 
sfojvjets
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:19 am

I know the conversation has been largely about non-US airlines ordering the 777X, but does anyone anticipate an order for the 777X coming from the big 3?

American has 20 77ws, a sizeable amount that would be replaced well by the 777-9 in the distant future since its next-largest aircraft (789) seats ~20 pax less than their 77ws and does not have a first product - and they've invested quite a bit in Flagship First so it would make sense to continue the product since it isn't on 789s. (Of course, I say distant future due to their finances and the current situation).

Delta would be a very unlikely contender; they never even operated the 77w in the first place and traditionally haven't gone for bigger widebodies whereas UA and AA have. The A359 works perfectly for them already and they simply don't have much of a need for larger aircraft than that. (Also might they eventually take some A35Ks?? not sure about how that deal with LATAM is going).

Now United is the most interesting one. I think United would be a likely contender for an eventual order in the distant future (they only recently within the last year or so finished deliveries of all 77ws IIRC). However, of course, they have the oddball order of 45 A359s which has been deferred to 2027. I would expect UA to eventually cancel that order if they can negotiate with Airbus since there isn't a clear need for the plane and it has since been pushed back to 11 years (!) past its original planned EIS, and 17 years after the original order was announced. They've just been poking, prodding, and playing with the order since they realize it's quite an oddball and has no clear place in their fleet, and they would do well to simply increase their 789/78X orders to cover the slack left from eventual retirements of 777-200s and -200ERs. Now, about their current 77w fleet, they have 22 of them, so a similar-sized fleet to American. I think this is where UA's hubs comes into play, especially with the prospects of a 777-9 order (it wouldn't likely be the -8). SFO is heavily slot-constrained and fortunately for Boeing, happens to be UA's fortress TPAC hub. Could we see UA eventually place an order for ~20-25 777-9s, in order to A) replace their 77ws at a 1:1 ratio and B) get the most capacity for their slots?

Either way, these are just general musings about the future of the 777X in US airlines' fleets - thoughts?
 
Gbass21
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:36 am

Well regarding latin american, I think that some airlines will need bigger planes in the next 5-10 years. Aeromexico, Avianca and Latam are strugling due to covid, that´s a fact. But also is a fact that in the next 5-10 years they would need a bigger aircraft than a B787/B789, routes as BOG-MAD/LHR/MEX/GRU/EZE/SCL, SCL-MAD/SYD/MEX/MIA/JFK/LAX or MEX-MAD/NRT/GRU/EZE/PVG could definitely support a bigger plane, add to the equation that most of those routes are about volume of traffic and not about frecuencies, and finally, add the huge population of GRU, MEX, BOG, LIM or the wealth of the chilean economy. The question is would they go all boeing and order the 777X (sure boeing makes them a huge discount in order to catch new clients) or would they order A359/A351 to their fleet?
 
kaitak744
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:21 am

Once the pandemic is over, the 777-9 is the only "big airplane" there is. What else are airlines going to buy if they need to replace older aircraft or buy aircraft for expansion?
The only thing that comes close is the A350-1000, but I don't really understand if that aircraft has appeal with airlines. Thus far, nobody is actually using it to replace 777-300ERs. What are the per seat operating costs of an A350-1000 compared to a 777-300ER (in 10y config) and compared to a 777-9?
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:02 am

kaitak744 wrote:
Once the pandemic is over, the 777-9 is the only "big airplane" there is. What else are airlines going to buy if they need to replace older aircraft or buy aircraft for expansion?
The only thing that comes close is the A350-1000, but I don't really understand if that aircraft has appeal with airlines. Thus far, nobody is actually using it to replace 777-300ERs. What are the per seat operating costs of an A350-1000 compared to a 777-300ER (in 10y config) and compared to a 777-9?


They can buy the smaller options in most cases. If they want expansion, then order more planes and fly more frequently. Not too many places that desperately need larger aircraft, those that do probably have A380s on hand or 779s on order.

The 77W is a young aircraft, so most won't need replacing for a while yet.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:07 am

Capricorn wrote:
LH I don'r think that they will go for more. Spohr at one point already mentioned that there are too few A350 and too many 777X. But that was in 2017, so who knows if that is still accurate.

FRANKFURT - Lufthansa is struggling with its order for the Boeing 777X and sees advantages in a larger Airbus A350 fleet. "I'm not sure whether we actually ordered enough A350s and possibly too many 777Xs," said airline boss Carsten Spohr in an internal video address.


Source (in German): https://www.aero.de/news-26795/Lufthans ... stanz.html

LH is becoming more and more a multi hub airline. And with the guarantees they have given to the Austrian government for the OS bailout, they can't just abandon VIE and fuel more traffic through FRA or MUC. With the recent expansion in MUC as well as the strengthening of ZRH, I don't see a too strong prospect for more 777Xs. Maybe at the time the 747-8 retire, but that is still far in the future.

I think KE will definitely order some at one point, especially after the merger with OZ. NH probably will go for more as they might try to grow more internationally at the very slot constrained HND. The same goes for BA. BR would be a good candidate too as well as CI. The CN3 might order some, but as everything with China recently it is political, so it is hard to make a prediction.

AF is unlikely as the French state wants to gain a larger role in it and pressure AF to "support" Airbus. AF might not like this, but they can also not exist without the support. I would see the 777X as good candidate at KL, especially as AMS is also heavily slot constrained, but politics seems to intervene at AFKL more than at the other two of the EU3, so I refrain from making a prediction.

“If we support Air France, it is also – and I do not hide it ­– to support Airbus,” Le Maire said, adding that the government could also “massively” support Airbus directly if needed.


Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 42a22d1669

I don't think TK is likely as with the new IST airport they have an abundance of slots available and historically does not have many very large aircraft in its fleet.

Maybe TG as they seem to have an affinity for large aircraft. Maybe QF, but what if the order A350Ks for Project Sunrise? Maybe NZ as I have no idea about them. I see JL as unlikely as they still have A350Ks on order, but their fleet policy might change in the future.


I could see BR, maybe 12-15 mainly for LAX/SFO, CI I believe have A350 options, I could see them taking A35Ks to replace the 77W when the time comes.

Not QF as they will get the A35J which will 99% sure replace the A380 aswell. NZ will go all 787, 779 is to big given the fragmentation of the network and more P2P services.
 
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AirCal737
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:10 am

The SIA order is equivalent of a cancellation. The 77W’s and 388’s are going to be phased out sooner or later and they definitely need more than 20x 779 to serve as replacements. Now by switching and deferring they avoided taking too many 787s and saved cash flow for the moment.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:38 am

AirCal737 wrote:
The SIA order is equivalent of a cancellation. The 77W’s and 388’s are going to be phased out sooner or later and they definitely need more than 20x 779 to serve as replacements. Now by switching and deferring they avoided taking too many 787s and saved cash flow for the moment.

You know they can probably cancel with limited penalties. Especially because of how late Boeing is on delivery.

Why is it so hard for some to just understand they see value in the 777-9 for their future fleet needs. There are other ways they could’ve done it.

You just can’t believe that obviously
 
Scotron12
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:33 am

It's a good deal for both. Boeing can list additional 11x779s to the orderbook, albeit at the expense of 14x787.10s. SQ doesn't have to take those 779s for quite a few years.

Even if Boeing sold the 779s at 787.10 pricing, Boeing already has taken a $6.5Billion charge against the program. Water under the bridge.
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:48 am

Scotron12 wrote:

Even if Boeing sold the 779s at 787.10 pricing, Boeing already has taken a $6.5Billion charge against the program. Water under the bridge.

14 787-10s = 10.7 779s at list prices. So SQ essentially kept the value of their order the same, they just decided to apply it to the 779 later instead of the 78J now. Naturally that means less planes (11 vs 14) as the price per plane is higher for the 779 than 78J.
 
Capricorn
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:52 am

Opus99 wrote:
AirCal737 wrote:
The SIA order is equivalent of a cancellation. The 77W’s and 388’s are going to be phased out sooner or later and they definitely need more than 20x 779 to serve as replacements. Now by switching and deferring they avoided taking too many 787s and saved cash flow for the moment.

You know they can probably cancel with limited penalties. Especially because of how late Boeing is on delivery.

Why is it so hard for some to just understand they see value in the 777-9 for their future fleet needs. There are other ways they could’ve done it.

You just can’t believe that obviously


I agree, the 777Xis a good fit SQ. Because of another 777X topic I checked how many, or rather how few passengers SQ puts in its 77W compared to other 77W operators. With their premium heavy configuration the 777X will serve them well.


Gbass21 wrote:
Well regarding latin american, I think that some airlines will need bigger planes in the next 5-10 years. Aeromexico, Avianca and Latam are strugling due to covid, that´s a fact. But also is a fact that in the next 5-10 years they would need a bigger aircraft than a B787/B789, routes as BOG-MAD/LHR/MEX/GRU/EZE/SCL, SCL-MAD/SYD/MEX/MIA/JFK/LAX or MEX-MAD/NRT/GRU/EZE/PVG could definitely support a bigger plane, add to the equation that most of those routes are about volume of traffic and not about frecuencies, and finally, add the huge population of GRU, MEX, BOG, LIM or the wealth of the chilean economy. The question is would they go all boeing and order the 777X (sure boeing makes them a huge discount in order to catch new clients) or would they order A359/A351 to their fleet?


AM might indeed be interested given their congested primary hub and the cancelation of the new MEX airport. However, I think AM will rather go for the 787-10 as there might not be a justification to add a second WB type. AM's need are served by the 787 family pretty well. Through consolidation LATAM, a multi hub airline, now has the ability steer traffic through multiple hubs, having less of a need for the 777X. Avianca can also easily become a single type WB operator by only flying 787s. AFAIK the last larger 747 Avianca operated left the fleet in the 90s and since then they did not operate any plane of similar size.

US airlines will be indeed worth watching whether they go for the 777X or not. Non of them bought any A380s/747-8s and arguably by doing so US airlines were often much more profitable than their international peers. I can see some at AA, but then AA could go all 787 as well, or wait for Boeing's/Airbus's next WB(even though that probably is still far in the future). UA is an interesting case. IMO it will depend if they will take the A350 or not. As on a forum with many US based users and me not being knowledgable about UA I refrain from making a prediction, as there are sure many more qualified users to answer that question. And somehow I can't imagine DL having anything larger than a A359. Their profitability record prior to C19 shows that they were doing something right.

My personal opinion as a hobby aviation enthusiast is, that larger planes are less in demand because of previous consolidation and the creation of JVs in aviation. While larger planes surely have lower CASM, revenue wise they might not be the best option. Airlines, by operating multiple hubs and subsequently being able to capture more O&D traffic directly, can maximise revenue better with smaller plane that have higher CASM, but capacity wise are closer to what certain secondary hubs demand. Larger planes were not only not in demand because of quad engines, but also because of fundamental changes in aviation, making them a niche market plane. IMO the the 777X will continue to sell, especially in Asia as it has a larger potential for growth compared to mature markets, while at the same time consolidation not being as far as in other region in the world (No transnational groups like LATAM in South America).
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:16 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
LH may want to top up. Not for a few years though.



Nope according to OMAAT, Lucky comments that he believes LH will swap some or all of the 777x on order.

During a webinar this week, Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr made some interesting comments about the German carrier’s fleet plans. Specifically, Lufthansa is allegedly in negotiations with both Airbus and Boeing about existing orders, as Lufthansa is looking for smaller planes. As Spohr explained:

“We are putting many four-engined long-range aircraft out of the fleet and this creates a certain need for smaller long-range aircraft. These are very dynamic discussions.”

My general take is as follows:
It seems most likely that Lufthansa may want to some or all of its 777-9s for 787-9s; Boeing has already lost over a third of its 777X orders, with airlines largely swapping to smaller planes


https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-wa ... ul-planes/
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:32 pm

oschkosch wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
LH may want to top up. Not for a few years though.



Nope according to OMAAT, Lucky comments that he believes LH will swap some or all of the 777x on order.

During a webinar this week, Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr made some interesting comments about the German carrier’s fleet plans. Specifically, Lufthansa is allegedly in negotiations with both Airbus and Boeing about existing orders, as Lufthansa is looking for smaller planes. As Spohr explained:

“We are putting many four-engined long-range aircraft out of the fleet and this creates a certain need for smaller long-range aircraft. These are very dynamic discussions.”

My general take is as follows:
It seems most likely that Lufthansa may want to some or all of its 777-9s for 787-9s; Boeing has already lost over a third of its 777X orders, with airlines largely swapping to smaller planes


https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-wa ... ul-planes/

The next article he then addresses the fact that airlines are being too short sighted. Which I agree with.

Let’s see what LH does. I don’t think they’ll move from their 20 IMHO.

But I guess if you’re losing 20M a day then I guess you’ll be very short sighted.

It will be very stupid if they end up needing those jets. It’s so strange to me that legacy are struggling to fill 350 seater jets? I mean
 
Capricorn
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:11 pm

Opus99 wrote:
It will be very stupid if they end up needing those jets. It’s so strange to me that legacy are struggling to fill 350 seater jets? I mean


As a hobby armchair CEO I observed that LHG is now a very different airline than what it used to be in the past. Let's say you want to travel from Europe to either, the US (JFK), or to Asia (PVG). In the past, prior to LH's M&A activity, if you wanted to fly LH or if LH wanted to increase its market share you would need to go through FRA or MUC, either O&D or transfer. Otherwise revenue would end up at one of LH's competitors. Now, if you were to go to JFK, you could pass through FRA,MUC,ZRH,VIE,BRU and the revenue would still end up at LHG. And thanks to the JV with UA you could even end up take their metal and LHG will still participate. The same goes for PVG (though no flights between BRU and PVG), and again thank to the JV you could take some CA metal and LHG would participate.

That all gears airlines to prioritise load factor and growth from secondary hubs to capture more O&D or increase frequency rather than flying with larger planes. Of course, not all airlines have these options. Most 777X customers only have one hub (SQ, EK, EY, QR, CX) or a very congested primary hub (BA, NH). That is the effect of consolidation and JVs on the aviation market. I still think Spohr was right when he said:

In the long term, there will only be twelve large global groups around the world, of this Lufthansa CEO Karsten Spohr is convinced. And of course Lufthansa is one of them


Source (in German): https://www.dmm.travel/nc/news/am-ende- ... -airlines/

IMO this is where LH's planing is going. The interest in more M&A, namely acquisition of AZ, being my example.
 
mig17
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:44 pm

Boeing now consideres 191 orders as firme for the 777-9. Before it was 309 for the 777-X with 9 buyers.

Between what has been anounced recently and what we hear is going on, it can look like this:
- EK 115 => 76 : reduction of 1/3 with swap to 787
- QR 60 => 60 : no change
- EY 25 => 6 : looks like they are contractualy stuck with 6 after cancelling the rest
- CX 21 => 0 : deferred indefinitely
- SQ 20 => 31 : recent top up by swaping 14 781 into 11 777-9
- NH 20 => 0 : deferred and reducing 777 fleet
- LH 20 => 0 : considering a swap to smaller widebodies
- BA 18 => 18 : no change
- ?? 10 => 0 : no news of the buyer

So 191 with only 5 airlines remaining:
- EK 76
- QR 60
- SQ 31
- BA 18
- EY 6

It seems despite SQ vote of confidence, the 777-X as lost 4 of it's customers, the 777-8 version and the support of it's main customer. And this trend even predates Covid-19. So in the current environment, where Airlines do not buy for growth anymore, I don't see much successful 777-9 sales campaign in 2021 or in the near future.

Potential prospect :
Maybe KE or BR when they need to replace aging 77W.
Maybe BA later if they take there first ones.
Maybe QH if they were ever serious.
Maybe KL if the AF-KLM group imploded.
That is not much ...

US3, Delta has chosen A359 and will not fly 777 soon. UA has recent 77W and has 45 A359 on order for 77E replacement. AA has recent 77W and has choosen 787 for now.

And AF has choosen A350.
A30B IW/TG, A313 EK, A318/9/20/1 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A35K QR, A388 AF, AT72 A5/TX, B722 AT, B734/8 UX/SK/TO/SS, B742/3/4 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, B762 UA, B77E/W AF/QR, C-150/72, CRJ1/7/X A5, E145/70/90 A5/WF, DH8D WF, PC-6.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:56 pm

Opus99 wrote:
You know they can probably cancel with limited penalties. Especially because of how late Boeing is on delivery.


I wish we had more clarification about whether the late schedule is really driven by problems with the 777X, which are not clearly established, rather than airline financial distress, which is clearly established. Taking comments about the flight control changes at face value amounts to a statement that Boeing needs 3 years (late 2020 to late 2023) to fix safety issues with the 777X. The 737 MAX took a little over half that long despite the fact that Boeing was hesitant for several months to even concede what level of change would be required.

It's frustrating to read these suggestions that the 777X is so much worse than the 737 MAX, but be left in the dark about what makes its problems so bad.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:53 pm

mig17 wrote:
Boeing now consideres 191 orders as firme for the 777-9. Before it was 309 for the 777-X with 9 buyers.

Between what has been anounced recently and what we hear is going on, it can look like this:
- EK 115 => 76 : reduction of 1/3 with swap to 787
- QR 60 => 60 : no change
- EY 25 => 6 : looks like they are contractualy stuck with 6 after cancelling the rest
- CX 21 => 0 : deferred indefinitely
- SQ 20 => 31 : recent top up by swaping 14 781 into 11 777-9
- NH 20 => 0 : deferred and reducing 777 fleet
- LH 20 => 0 : considering a swap to smaller widebodies
- BA 18 => 18 : no change
- ?? 10 => 0 : no news of the buyer

So 191 with only 5 airlines remaining:
- EK 76
- QR 60
- SQ 31
- BA 18
- EY 6

It seems despite SQ vote of confidence, the 777-X as lost 4 of it's customers, the 777-8 version and the support of it's main customer. And this trend even predates Covid-19. So in the current environment, where Airlines do not buy for growth anymore, I don't see much successful 777-9 sales campaign in 2021 or in the near future.

Potential prospect :
Maybe KE or BR when they need to replace aging 77W.
Maybe BA later if they take there first ones.
Maybe QH if they were ever serious.
Maybe KL if the AF-KLM group imploded.
That is not much ...

US3, Delta has chosen A359 and will not fly 777 soon. UA has recent 77W and has 45 A359 on order for 77E replacement. AA has recent 77W and has choosen 787 for now.

And AF has choosen A350.

That 191 is before the changes for SQ
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:01 am

mig17 wrote:
Boeing now consideres 191 orders as firme for the 777-9. Before it was 309 for the 777-X with 9 buyers.

Between what has been anounced recently and what we hear is going on, it can look like this:
- EK 115 => 76 : reduction of 1/3 with swap to 787
- QR 60 => 60 : no change
- EY 25 => 6 : looks like they are contractualy stuck with 6 after cancelling the rest
- CX 21 => 0 : deferred indefinitely
- SQ 20 => 31 : recent top up by swaping 14 781 into 11 777-9
- NH 20 => 0 : deferred and reducing 777 fleet
- LH 20 => 0 : considering a swap to smaller widebodies
- BA 18 => 18 : no change
- ?? 10 => 0 : no news of the buyer

So 191 with only 5 airlines remaining:
- EK 76
- QR 60
- SQ 31
- BA 18
- EY 6

It seems despite SQ vote of confidence, the 777-X as lost 4 of it's customers, the 777-8 version and the support of it's main customer. And this trend even predates Covid-19. So in the current environment, where Airlines do not buy for growth anymore, I don't see much successful 777-9 sales campaign in 2021 or in the near future.

Potential prospect :
Maybe KE or BR when they need to replace aging 77W.
Maybe BA later if they take there first ones.
Maybe QH if they were ever serious.
Maybe KL if the AF-KLM group imploded.
That is not much ...

US3, Delta has chosen A359 and will not fly 777 soon. UA has recent 77W and has 45 A359 on order for 77E replacement. AA has recent 77W and has choosen 787 for now.

And AF has choosen A350.

The most plausible scenario
“LNA believes that the orders from Cathay Pacific, Etihad, and the unidentified customer are the most likely to have been reclassified as ASC 606 by Boeing. The total of those five orders is 56. That leaves 62 orders for the other airlines.
Emirates previously threatened to cancel a portion of its 777X order or do more conversions to Dreamliners. After converting a portion of its original 777X order to the 787-9, Emirates still envisioned taking 777-9 deliveries over the 2021-23 period. LNA believes that the other 62 orders reclassified as ASC 606 are Emirates’, representing almost half of the carrier’s total 777X order for 115 units.”

That’s from Leeham. Makes more sense
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:09 am

I think overall the jet will sell well. This will be the most difficult few years for this aircraft. But once they get past this. I think the 777X will sell well. It’s very different from the 380. It’s significantly smaller and has the largest cargo capacity of any jet available and very low fuel burn. A lot of people don’t also realise it’s much easier to turn a cash positive flight on a 777X than on a 777-300ER.

Boeing will also be of course price aggressively for 77W replacements when the time comes. The jet will do well and then you include the freighter version.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:13 am

Opus99 wrote:
And there is of course the prospects of a freighter coming up which many believe is inevitable for Boeing to develop


I don't think we will see a 777X freighter anytime soon. Boeing can continue to sell the 777F under ICAO 2028 rules and they can intermuix them easily enough in the FAL with 777-9s.


ewt340 wrote:
I always thought a simple engine upgrade on B777-300ER would be a better option. But they already pop the balloon on this one.


The heavier empty weight vis-a-vis the A350-1000 likely would have hurt it, but then again, it might have sold enough to make it wortjh the effort - especially to 777-300ER operators who were choosing the 787 and not seriously entertaining the A350 family.


MrHMSH wrote:
I think the 777X is a little bit too large to fulfill even most of the 77W replacement...


The issue is that the 777-9 has to be big in order to get its per-seat cash operating costs competitive to the A350-1000. And almost all 777-300ER operators are 10-abreast in Economy now, anyway, which implies that at least during peak travel seasons they can use the capacity. The extra cabin width is not so important for Business Class, which is moving from 2+3+2 to 2+2+2 or even 1+2+1, though for British Airways, it does allow for a wider 2+4+2 Club World product than what will fit on the 787 and A350.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:10 am

Stitch wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
And there is of course the prospects of a freighter coming up which many believe is inevitable for Boeing to develop


I don't think we will see a 777X freighter anytime soon. Boeing can continue to sell the 777F under ICAO 2028 rules and they can intermuix them easily enough in the FAL with 777-9s.


ewt340 wrote:
I always thought a simple engine upgrade on B777-300ER would be a better option. But they already pop the balloon on this one.


The heavier empty weight vis-a-vis the A350-1000 likely would have hurt it, but then again, it might have sold enough to make it wortjh the effort - especially to 777-300ER operators who were choosing the 787 and not seriously entertaining the A350 family.


MrHMSH wrote:
I think the 777X is a little bit too large to fulfill even most of the 77W replacement...


The issue is that the 777-9 has to be big in order to get its per-seat cash operating costs competitive to the A350-1000. And almost all 777-300ER operators are 10-abreast in Economy now, anyway, which implies that at least during peak travel seasons they can use the capacity. The extra cabin width is not so important for Business Class, which is moving from 2+3+2 to 2+2+2 or even 1+2+1, though for British Airways, it does allow for a wider 2+4+2 Club World product than what will fit on the 787 and A350.

Don’t forget BA has now gone 1-2-1 for business class with club suite

One could also argue with carriers introducing premium economy - LH, Swiss, Emirates it allows them to probably keep the same seat count as their current 777s whilst installing premium economy cabins
 
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AirCal737
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:33 am

Opus99 wrote:
AirCal737 wrote:
The SIA order is equivalent of a cancellation. The 77W’s and 388’s are going to be phased out sooner or later and they definitely need more than 20x 779 to serve as replacements. Now by switching and deferring they avoided taking too many 787s and saved cash flow for the moment.

You know they can probably cancel with limited penalties. Especially because of how late Boeing is on delivery.

Why is it so hard for some to just understand they see value in the 777-9 for their future fleet needs. There are other ways they could’ve done it.

You just can’t believe that obviously


You’re probably misunderstanding.
I mean equivalent to a cancellation for the 787-10
In non-COVID situations they would just order more 779s straight away rather than converting orders.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:59 am

AirCal737 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
AirCal737 wrote:
The SIA order is equivalent of a cancellation. The 77W’s and 388’s are going to be phased out sooner or later and they definitely need more than 20x 779 to serve as replacements. Now by switching and deferring they avoided taking too many 787s and saved cash flow for the moment.

You know they can probably cancel with limited penalties. Especially because of how late Boeing is on delivery.

Why is it so hard for some to just understand they see value in the 777-9 for their future fleet needs. There are other ways they could’ve done it.

You just can’t believe that obviously


You’re probably misunderstanding.
I mean equivalent to a cancellation for the 787-10
In non-COVID situations they would just order more 779s straight away rather than converting orders.

My bad, apologies I definitely misunderstood
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:26 am

Stitch wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
And there is of course the prospects of a freighter coming up which many believe is inevitable for Boeing to develop


I don't think we will see a 777X freighter anytime soon. Boeing can continue to sell the 777F under ICAO 2028 rules and they can intermuix them easily enough in the FAL with 777-9s.


ewt340 wrote:
I always thought a simple engine upgrade on B777-300ER would be a better option. But they already pop the balloon on this one.


The heavier empty weight vis-a-vis the A350-1000 likely would have hurt it, but then again, it might have sold enough to make it wortjh the effort - especially to 777-300ER operators who were choosing the 787 and not seriously entertaining the A350 family.


MrHMSH wrote:
I think the 777X is a little bit too large to fulfill even most of the 77W replacement...


The issue is that the 777-9 has to be big in order to get its per-seat cash operating costs competitive to the A350-1000. And almost all 777-300ER operators are 10-abreast in Economy now, anyway, which implies that at least during peak travel seasons they can use the capacity. The extra cabin width is not so important for Business Class, which is moving from 2+3+2 to 2+2+2 or even 1+2+1, though for British Airways, it does allow for a wider 2+4+2 Club World product than what will fit on the 787 and A350.


Would BA really go for a 2-4-2 J layout? It would seem like a very backwards step given the 1-2-1 is being introduced on the A35K, 78X and even the 77E. For an aircraft likely to be used on the most prestigious and premium routes I'd be very surprised to see a J class like the older one BA has used for millennia.

I understand why the 777X has to be larger in order to have competitive efficiency, but being larger is not a big advantage when the competitors are only marginally less efficient per unit of area, but small enough to be more flexible for larger carriers and viable for smaller carriers. Those smaller aircraft also have better economies of scale and will have largely paid off most/all of their development costs by the time they'll be thinking about 777Xs.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:22 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
And there is of course the prospects of a freighter coming up which many believe is inevitable for Boeing to develop


I don't think we will see a 777X freighter anytime soon. Boeing can continue to sell the 777F under ICAO 2028 rules and they can intermuix them easily enough in the FAL with 777-9s.


ewt340 wrote:
I always thought a simple engine upgrade on B777-300ER would be a better option. But they already pop the balloon on this one.


The heavier empty weight vis-a-vis the A350-1000 likely would have hurt it, but then again, it might have sold enough to make it wortjh the effort - especially to 777-300ER operators who were choosing the 787 and not seriously entertaining the A350 family.


MrHMSH wrote:
I think the 777X is a little bit too large to fulfill even most of the 77W replacement...


The issue is that the 777-9 has to be big in order to get its per-seat cash operating costs competitive to the A350-1000. And almost all 777-300ER operators are 10-abreast in Economy now, anyway, which implies that at least during peak travel seasons they can use the capacity. The extra cabin width is not so important for Business Class, which is moving from 2+3+2 to 2+2+2 or even 1+2+1, though for British Airways, it does allow for a wider 2+4+2 Club World product than what will fit on the 787 and A350.


Would BA really go for a 2-4-2 J layout? It would seem like a very backwards step given the 1-2-1 is being introduced on the A35K, 78X and even the 77E. For an aircraft likely to be used on the most prestigious and premium routes I'd be very surprised to see a J class like the older one BA has used for millennia.

I understand why the 777X has to be larger in order to have competitive efficiency, but being larger is not a big advantage when the competitors are only marginally less efficient per unit of area, but small enough to be more flexible for larger carriers and viable for smaller carriers. Those smaller aircraft also have better economies of scale and will have largely paid off most/all of their development costs by the time they'll be thinking about 777Xs.

Or here's another angle, maybe airlines have the demand for it. These new jets (350 and 787) have much better operating costs than the 300ER but a lot where ordered with these new jets because there's demand for that size of jets. 350 and 787 are great and have allowed airlines to grow tremendously and thats where they've gotten their orders from. now the 777X is not an aircraft that will be used for growth in the way the 350s and 787s were. the 777X's main market is simply for replacement. Many airlines are happy with their 300ERs and many will want to keep that size of aircraft (assuming we do of course return to pre pandemic levels). Like United said, the 300ERs are fantastic for core routes with high premium demand (which is what most of them are used for now anyway). Why in the world would i want to replace that with a 787 or an a350-900 if i have the strong revenue opportunity coming from that. And the 777X and 350-1000 will have one of the strongest if not the strongest cargo revenue opportunities of any passenger aircraft on the market, which helps even more.

The 777X won't sell like the 787s or A350s obviously but it is a very good aircraft that serves a very important role in travel today.
If you look at the 300ERs today they offer very little flexibility from a size perspective Some go as high as 425 seats (air canada) but thats why they're built for core markets. The 787s and 350s just make more routes viable (hence the growth aspects). I think Core routes are still best served by 350 seaters.

If i have the demand, (and it does return) i see no reason why one should down gauge
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:56 am

Opus99 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Stitch wrote:

I don't think we will see a 777X freighter anytime soon. Boeing can continue to sell the 777F under ICAO 2028 rules and they can intermuix them easily enough in the FAL with 777-9s.




The heavier empty weight vis-a-vis the A350-1000 likely would have hurt it, but then again, it might have sold enough to make it wortjh the effort - especially to 777-300ER operators who were choosing the 787 and not seriously entertaining the A350 family.




The issue is that the 777-9 has to be big in order to get its per-seat cash operating costs competitive to the A350-1000. And almost all 777-300ER operators are 10-abreast in Economy now, anyway, which implies that at least during peak travel seasons they can use the capacity. The extra cabin width is not so important for Business Class, which is moving from 2+3+2 to 2+2+2 or even 1+2+1, though for British Airways, it does allow for a wider 2+4+2 Club World product than what will fit on the 787 and A350.


Would BA really go for a 2-4-2 J layout? It would seem like a very backwards step given the 1-2-1 is being introduced on the A35K, 78X and even the 77E. For an aircraft likely to be used on the most prestigious and premium routes I'd be very surprised to see a J class like the older one BA has used for millennia.

I understand why the 777X has to be larger in order to have competitive efficiency, but being larger is not a big advantage when the competitors are only marginally less efficient per unit of area, but small enough to be more flexible for larger carriers and viable for smaller carriers. Those smaller aircraft also have better economies of scale and will have largely paid off most/all of their development costs by the time they'll be thinking about 777Xs.

Or here's another angle, maybe airlines have the demand for it. These new jets (350 and 787) have much better operating costs than the 300ER but a lot where ordered with these new jets because there's demand for that size of jets. 350 and 787 are great and have allowed airlines to grow tremendously and thats where they've gotten their orders from. now the 777X is not an aircraft that will be used for growth in the way the 350s and 787s were. the 777X's main market is simply for replacement. Many airlines are happy with their 300ERs and many will want to keep that size of aircraft (assuming we do of course return to pre pandemic levels). Like United said, the 300ERs are fantastic for core routes with high premium demand (which is what most of them are used for now anyway). Why in the world would i want to replace that with a 787 or an a350-900 if i have the strong revenue opportunity coming from that. And the 777X and 350-1000 will have one of the strongest if not the strongest cargo revenue opportunities of any passenger aircraft on the market, which helps even more.

The 777X won't sell like the 787s or A350s obviously but it is a very good aircraft that serves a very important role in travel today.
If you look at the 300ERs today they offer very little flexibility from a size perspective Some go as high as 425 seats (air canada) but thats why they're built for core markets. The 787s and 350s just make more routes viable (hence the growth aspects). I think Core routes are still best served by 350 seaters.

If i have the demand, (and it does return) i see no reason why one should down gauge


Sure, there will be some airlines for whom that capacity upgrade is important, and they'll use the 777X for those core routes. How many airlines need that capacity is the question. The airlines that need that by and large are airlines that used the A380 at some point (maybe a handful still will). We've already seen a trend very early on in their lifecycles and even before any major 77W replacement (but before Covid) that the 789 and A359 take over a not insignificant number of 77W routes, because the 77W was the best long haul aircraft available for a decade, but the 789 and A359 are better suited to the demand. Every 789 and A359 that takes over a 77W route is a chance for the 779 gone. By the time airlines really want a large aircraft the 777X could have been treading water at best for a few years.

For my money, I think a few airlines will take the 777X in the future, but right now getting back to the point where Boeing had 300+ solid orders for the 777X is the aim, and still a challenge, the way things are going it's debatable if the 777X will make money on even 400 units. Only so low the production line can go without crippling the profit on each unit.
 
ba319-131
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:18 am

Still plenty of young 77W’s that are years off replacement, the ones at Saudi are a perfect example, plenty there to replace when the time comes.

I’m sure the 779 will pick up more orders as time ticks on, just don’t see it selling as well as the 77W did.
111 732 733 734 735 736 73G 738 739,7M8 BBJ 741 742 743 744 752 753 762 763 764 772 77L 773 77W L15 D10 D30 D40 AB3 AB6 312 313 318 319 320 20N 321 21N 332 333 342 343 345 346 359 351 388 CS1 CS3 I86 154 SSJ CRJ CR7 CR9 CRK 145 170 175 220
 
Scotron12
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:42 am

ba319-131 wrote:
Still plenty of young 77W’s that are years off replacement, the ones at Saudi are a perfect example, plenty there to replace when the time comes.

I’m sure the 779 will pick up more orders as time ticks on, just don’t see it selling as well as the 77W did.


Seems all a guessing game as to which way the market returns. Airlines like BA & LH are premium heavy. Just look at their configuration of their cabins. Ironically, BAs A350 have a total of 331 seats; their 779s will have only 325.

When the premium markets return is the big guess...if it doesn't then the 777X will find it slow going.
 
vfw614
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:23 pm

Let’s see what LH does. I don’t think they’ll move from their 20 IMHO.


Not sure what Spohr in negotiating with Boeing then as this is the only larger Boeing type on order he could swap for a smaller model.

Lufthansa is in a different situation than other 777-9X customers like EK, QR, SQ, BA or CX: Lufthansa Group has a multi-hub strategy with both hubs offering more or less the same long-haul flights (if you add ZRH, BRU and VIE, things get even more complicated). They will need smaller long-haul aircraft for longer unless they are willing to sacrifice MUC
 
brindabella
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:56 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
ba319-131 wrote:
Still plenty of young 77W’s that are years off replacement, the ones at Saudi are a perfect example, plenty there to replace when the time comes.

I’m sure the 779 will pick up more orders as time ticks on, just don’t see it selling as well as the 77W did.


Seems all a guessing game as to which way the market returns. Airlines like BA & LH are premium heavy. Just look at their configuration of their cabins. Ironically, BAs A350 have a total of 331 seats; their 779s will have only 325.

When the premium markets return is the big guess...if it doesn't then the 777X will find it slow going.


:scratchchin:

In reality we are all in the dark while the basic efficiency of the 779 remains unknown.

If it only just gets to spec. (or (horrors) doesn't make spec.), the future may well be very quiet indeed.

But, let's say we add-up the possibilities that:

1) the new CEO has thrown the "kitchen sink" and everything else into the Financials in 2020, declared a huge loss to the program, and Marketing is henceforth liberated where future sales campaign negotiations are concerned;
2) the new wing is based on the 787 wing. May well be better, given the experience gained.
3) the GE9X has had a long gestation now. If the GE research-projections were accurate in the first place, it might well exceed the 10% SFC improvement target, and finally
4) various sources refer to BA having done considerably more improvements in many areas than first estimated. Could be that the 'frame, once launched, was found to need more upgrades from the 777W than first thought? In the alternative, however, BA may have decided to accept the opportunities on offer, and upgraded/improved many areas on the way through.

All/most of which would indeed change the landscape in a world in which travel had recovered from COVID and pent-up demand was forcing attention.

cheers
Billy
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:25 pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/l ... 57.article


He says the crisis has spurred Lufthansa Group to rethink its fleet structure, adding that the pandemic “allows us to modernise the fleet faster than we had expected”, given that the company would otherwise have had to maintain its previous fleet planning.

“We are in the process of negotiating with Airbus and Boeing on additional, smaller, more-efficient aircraft to be brought into the fleet, replacing some of the huge, big but older aircraft we are putting on the ground – [Boeing] 747s, Airbus A380s,” says Spohr, without elaborating on the potential number of aircraft or the types considered.

“So there is some modernisation which is accelerated by the fact that the fleet gets smaller. We wouldn’t have been able to afford that for the large fleet we were operating before, because we couldn’t have been able to afford to ground aircraft like the A380 or the 747, which are only 10-15 years old.”
 
Special
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu May 20, 2010 5:30 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:42 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/lufthansa-in-talks-for-smaller-types-after-a380-and-747-withdrawal-spohr/142457.article


He says the crisis has spurred Lufthansa Group to rethink its fleet structure, adding that the pandemic “allows us to modernise the fleet faster than we had expected”, given that the company would otherwise have had to maintain its previous fleet planning.

“We are in the process of negotiating with Airbus and Boeing on additional, smaller, more-efficient aircraft to be brought into the fleet, replacing some of the huge, big but older aircraft we are putting on the ground – [Boeing] 747s, Airbus A380s,” says Spohr, without elaborating on the potential number of aircraft or the types considered.

“So there is some modernisation which is accelerated by the fact that the fleet gets smaller. We wouldn’t have been able to afford that for the large fleet we were operating before, because we couldn’t have been able to afford to ground aircraft like the A380 or the 747, which are only 10-15 years old.”


No direct mention of the 777X order. I wonder if they would want to bring the 787 order forward and delay or space out the 777X deliveries.
 
Special
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:44 pm

brindabella wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
ba319-131 wrote:
Still plenty of young 77W’s that are years off replacement, the ones at Saudi are a perfect example, plenty there to replace when the time comes.

I’m sure the 779 will pick up more orders as time ticks on, just don’t see it selling as well as the 77W did.


Seems all a guessing game as to which way the market returns. Airlines like BA & LH are premium heavy. Just look at their configuration of their cabins. Ironically, BAs A350 have a total of 331 seats; their 779s will have only 325.

When the premium markets return is the big guess...if it doesn't then the 777X will find it slow going.


:scratchchin:

In reality we are all in the dark while the basic efficiency of the 779 remains unknown.

If it only just gets to spec. (or (horrors) doesn't make spec.), the future may well be very quiet indeed.

But, let's say we add-up the possibilities that:

1) the new CEO has thrown the "kitchen sink" and everything else into the Financials in 2020, declared a huge loss to the program, and Marketing is henceforth liberated where future sales campaign negotiations are concerned;
2) the new wing is based on the 787 wing. May well be better, given the experience gained.
3) the GE9X has had a long gestation now. If the GE research-projections were accurate in the first place, it might well exceed the 10% SFC improvement target, and finally
4) various sources refer to BA having done considerably more improvements in many areas than first estimated. Could be that the 'frame, once launched, was found to need more upgrades from the 777W than first thought? In the alternative, however, BA may have decided to accept the opportunities on offer, and upgraded/improved many areas on the way through.

All/most of which would indeed change the landscape in a world in which travel had recovered from COVID and pent-up demand was forcing attention.

cheers


What are BA improvements are you referring to ?
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27642
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:34 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Would BA really go for a 2-4-2 J layout? It would seem like a very backwards step given the 1-2-1 is being introduced on the A35K, 78X and even the 77E.


I wasn't aware of British Airways updating their Business Class product to 1+2+1 so you can disregard that.

So mainly the advantage of the 777X over the A350-1000 is Premium Economy and Economy class seat counts due to being able to add one extra seat per row (at similar comfort levels).
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27642
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:43 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
I understand why the 777X has to be larger in order to have competitive efficiency, but being larger is not a big advantage when the competitors are only marginally less efficient per unit of area, but small enough to be more flexible for larger carriers and viable for smaller carriers. Those smaller aircraft also have better economies of scale and will have largely paid off most/all of their development costs by the time they'll be thinking about 777Xs.


Well it is possible the 777-9 will only appeal to mainline carriers on core routes where they need the capacity and the hope for future carriers are Emerging Markets that will need 485 seat frames to handle explosive traffic growth or a new carrier is able to leverage a critical nexus location like Emirates was to connect multiple continents and need large frames for handling significant connecting traffic.

I guess time will tell if Airbus' 2000s philosophy that Mega Cities would have Mega Hubs that need the largest plane possible comes true, in which case the 777-9 will have a bright future. The other option is Boeing's 2000s philosophy that Mega Cities will just build more airports (or expand existing ones significantly) and therefore slots will be plentiful and "300 seats is enough for anyone" and the 777-9 will be a low-selling variant of the 777 family.
 
Opus99
Topic Author
Posts: 2340
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:55 pm

Stitch wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
I understand why the 777X has to be larger in order to have competitive efficiency, but being larger is not a big advantage when the competitors are only marginally less efficient per unit of area, but small enough to be more flexible for larger carriers and viable for smaller carriers. Those smaller aircraft also have better economies of scale and will have largely paid off most/all of their development costs by the time they'll be thinking about 777Xs.


Well it is possible the 777-9 will only appeal to mainline carriers on core routes where they need the capacity and the hope for future carriers are Emerging Markets that will need 485 seat frames to handle explosive traffic growth or a new carrier is able to leverage a critical nexus location like Emirates was to connect multiple continents and need large frames for handling significant connecting traffic.

I guess time will tell if Airbus' 2000s philosophy that Mega Cities would have Mega Hubs that need the largest plane possible comes true, in which case the 777-9 will have a bright future. The other option is Boeing's 2000s philosophy that Mega Cities will just build more airports (or expand existing ones significantly) and therefore slots will be plentiful and "300 seats is enough for anyone" and the 777-9 will be a low-selling variant of the 777 family.

With climate change now being a massive issue. France just scrapped CDGs expansion plans. Heathrow...is looking less likely. So it’s interesting there’s a chance Airbus could be right but not for the underlying reasons they initially thought
 
MoreLegRoomPLS
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:08 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:56 pm

Last time I checked, the ASC606 adjustment for the B777 family was actually -135 (not -118).

This figure relates to the 777 family Orderbook that includes current generation 77W, 77F and 77L and also next generation 77X. Where did you get the -118 figure? Are we sure that not a larger part is actually related to current generation 777?

source: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
 
Opus99
Topic Author
Posts: 2340
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:59 pm

MoreLegRoomPLS wrote:
Last time I checked, the ASC606 adjustment for the B777 family was actually -135 (not -118).

This figure relates to the 777 family Orderbook that includes current generation 77W, 77F and 77L and also next generation 77X. Where did you get the -118 figure? Are we sure that not a larger part is actually related to current generation 777?

source: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries

I think Boeing specifically said 118. I believe

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN2A20A1

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