Welcome to the Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021. Please continue to add your comments below

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We start this new March 2021 thread with the inaugural of Rex Sydney-Melbourne B737 services, are any a.netters on the inaugurals from MEL or SYD?

Rex expands Sydney-Melbourne flights to Gold Coast, Adelaide

Looks like Rex is skipping BNE which they had previously said would follow SYD and MEL, instead they will add twice-daily B737 services to ADL and OOL starting the end of this month.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... t-adelaide

Very strange course of events. Less than a month until they start these routes and a significant departure from previously outlined plans.

The original plan seemed to also have most of the flying out of Sydney, with only a Melbourne-Brisbane flight planned at some point that differed from that focus. Now though, Melbourne actually has 3 destinations and Sydney 2 in these latest plans.

Having 4 carriers on Gold Coast and Adelaide routes will be interesting to watch. Even though it’s the same amount of airlines previously flying the routes, when it was QF/JQ and VA/TT at least both groups were able to manage capacity across each brand, but now with ZL in the mix, it does change the equation significantly.

Certainly a big change to make.

Is there any way of knowing how long the REX leases are on the 737s ? Might this give us some insight into their flexibility with this experiment? Ie if the leases are short, 12 months even, then they could pull the pin and not really have lost too much?

ADL already has a ZL lounge, plus some regional routes, so this is understandable.

CraigAnderson wrote:

Rex expands Sydney-Melbourne flights to Gold Coast, Adelaide

Looks like Rex is skipping BNE which they had previously said would follow SYD and MEL, instead they will add twice-daily B737 services to ADL and OOL starting the end of this month.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... t-adelaide

I think this is a smart move. Business travel is not picking up anytime soon and it appears the recovery will be led by leisure travel initially. Pivotting to MEL/SYD-OOL seems like a smart move.

MEL/SYD-OOL formed a big part of the TT network, even before they were affiliated with Virgin. It’s also historically my most flown route and I’ts always seemed to be very full flights. Price sensitive market though primarily made up of holidaying young families who’ll just book whichever flights the cheapest.

tullamarine wrote:

qf2220 wrote:

Is there any way of knowing how long the REX leases are on the 737s ? Might this give us some insight into their flexibility with this experiment? Ie if the leases are short, 12 months even, then they could pull the pin and not really have lost too much?

I believe they are for a few years so they got a reduced lease cost for the first year (something like $60K per month) increasing to around $90K per month from Year 2 onwards. I assume there are guarantees in place so REX can't walk away without penalty.

Interesting numbers.

I live near SYD and have been working from home now for about a year. Today was the first day in a while that I can recall hearing a lot of airplane noise overhead as they took off from 34R.

csturdiv wrote:

I live near SYD and have been working from home now for about a year. Today was the first day in a while that I can recall hearing a lot of airplane noise overhead as they took off from 34R.

I noticed a stream of 16L arrivals over Newtwon on Friday afternoon/evening. Very pleasing to hear two runway operations again!

I hope REX starts up flights on as many main line routes as possible and as quickly as possible
It's their best chance of success....
It may be one thing for QF / JQ and to a lesser extent VA to discount on one or 2 routes, but another thing entirely if REX starts flights on 8-10 routes
So long as REX can cover costs for a few months, QF and VA will eventually have to surrender, why?
Let's say REX fly Mel-Syd at 7.00am
QF would need to drop or match on their 7.00am, 8.00am and 8.30am flights to squeeze them out, also Jetstar would need to drop on 6.00am, 6.05am and 7.20am
So for every flight REX starts QF / JQ would need to compete on over 6 flights (although less on thinner routes) but you get the idea...

So how long will it take for QF / JQ and VA to just except the inevitable

On a side note
Never understood why legacy airlines in Oz try to cover everything
In the US it seems more like airlines stick to their hubs
An example for Oz may be
VA could be Brisbane centric with Mel or Syd as secondary

Quick question, does anyone know if Sri Lankan airlines will continue to serve SYD, or are they just here temporarily?

Deano969 wrote:

QF would need to drop or match on their 7.00am, 8.00am and 8.30am flights to squeeze them out, also Jetstar would need to drop on 6.00am, 6.05am and 7.20am
So for every flight REX starts QF / JQ would need to compete on over 6 flights (although less on thinner routes) but you get the idea...

So how long will it take for QF / JQ and VA to just except the inevitable

Rex have 6 aircraft slated for service in their "Phase 1 fleet", QF domestic mainline have 75 738's and JQ domestic have around 60 A320's/A321's in their fleet. Rex's capacity is a drop in a ocean for the combined QF/JQ group. You can bet QF/JQ will not just roll over...

SYDSpotter wrote:

Deano969 wrote:

QF would need to drop or match on their 7.00am, 8.00am and 8.30am flights to squeeze them out, also Jetstar would need to drop on 6.00am, 6.05am and 7.20am
So for every flight REX starts QF / JQ would need to compete on over 6 flights (although less on thinner routes) but you get the idea...

So how long will it take for QF / JQ and VA to just except the inevitable

Rex have 6 aircraft slated for service in their "Phase 1 fleet", QF domestic mainline have 75 738's and JQ domestic have around 60 A320's/A321's in their fleet. Rex's capacity is a drop in a ocean for the combined QF/JQ group. You can bet QF/JQ will not just roll over...

If anything ZL is just hurting JQ/QF margins on these routes, which they are now having to release more fares at lower fare buckets to entice people from ZL.

ZL has the cost base advantage in this case, favourable lease costs, they don't have the cost of an parked up fleet to cover and likely the ex VA Pilots / Cabin Crew would of taken an decent pay cut.

Deano969 wrote:

On a side note
Never understood why legacy airlines in Oz try to cover everything
In the US it seems more like airlines stick to their hubs
An example for Oz may be
VA could be Brisbane centric with Mel or Syd as secondary

You must understand that the OZ aviation market is very different to the US market. If we talk domestically, the real money is the golden triangle, you pretty much service SYD, MEL, BNE between each other multiple times a day, they all pretty much become bases that the airline can add extra routes from as the cost of opening additional routes from these bases is quite low with infrastructure already set up and slowly you build up a network.

Deano969 wrote:

On a side note
Never understood why legacy airlines in Oz try to cover everything
In the US it seems more like airlines stick to their hubs
An example for Oz may be
VA could be Brisbane centric with Mel or Syd as secondary

Vastly different markets. You can't compare a domestic market with 328 million people (149/km2), fairly evenly distributed to a market of 25 million people (3.3/km2), highly concentrated to five coastal cities. Australia is not suited to the hub and spoke model.

Using your example of VA operating a big hub in BNE and smaller operations in SYD/MEL. Then that puts them at a huge handicap in securing business travel and government contracts if they don't have a competitive network out of Australia's two largest cities.

A better comparison would be Canada, another large in area country with a similar population density (4/km2), concentrated in the south. Look what they have 2 major carriers, one being a quasi "mid market" carrier. And they have for the most part point to point networks out of the major cities (YVR, YYC, YYZ, YUL).

vhqpa wrote:

Deano969 wrote:

On a side note
Never understood why legacy airlines in Oz try to cover everything
In the US it seems more like airlines stick to their hubs
An example for Oz may be
VA could be Brisbane centric with Mel or Syd as secondary

Vastly different markets. You can't compare a domestic market with 328 million people (149/km2), fairly evenly distributed to a market of 25 million people (3.3/km2), highly concentrated to five coastal cities. Australia is not suited to the hub and spoke model.

Using your example of VA operating a big hub in BNE and smaller operations in SYD/MEL. Then that puts them at a huge handicap in securing business travel and government contracts if they don't have a competitive network out of Australia's two largest cities.

A better comparison would be Canada, another large in area country with a similar population density (4/km2), concentrated in the south. Look what they have 2 major carriers, one being a quasi "mid market" carrier. And they have for the most part point to point networks out of the major cities (YVR, YYC, YYZ, YUL).

Agree. Without a major presence in SYD and MEL it’s going to be a challenge. BNE is doing well enough, but the biggest business centres are in the 2 largest cities by a significant margin, which helps boost volume and yield potential.

Even ZL has appeared to change course and seems to be willing to wait to service BNE, but was more than happy to tap into the SYD and MEL markets for OOL service instead, which is an airport it currently has no presence in.

Deano969 wrote:

On a side note
Never understood why legacy airlines in Oz try to cover everything
In the US it seems more like airlines stick to their hubs
An example for Oz may be
VA could be Brisbane centric with Mel or Syd as secondary

You also need to look at geography. There are no hubs in Australia partly due to the location of the major cities. There is nowhere to actually hub from, in the traditional sense, so you have to serve all the different routes as that's just the nature of things in Australia.

tullamarine wrote:

Deano969 wrote:

I hope REX starts up flights on as many main line routes as possible and as quickly as possible
It's their best chance of success....
It may be one thing for QF / JQ and to a lesser extent VA to discount on one or 2 routes, but another thing entirely if REX starts flights on 8-10 routes
So long as REX can cover costs for a few months, QF and VA will eventually have to surrender, why?
Let's say REX fly Mel-Syd at 7.00am
QF would need to drop or match on their 7.00am, 8.00am and 8.30am flights to squeeze them out, also Jetstar would need to drop on 6.00am, 6.05am and 7.20am
So for every flight REX starts QF / JQ would need to compete on over 6 flights (although less on thinner routes) but you get the idea...

So how long will it take for QF / JQ and VA to just except the inevitable

On a side note
Never understood why legacy airlines in Oz try to cover everything
In the US it seems more like airlines stick to their hubs
An example for Oz may be
VA could be Brisbane centric with Mel or Syd as secondary

Your argument seems to be that QF/VA should just surrender market share so there is space for ZL to move into. This seems flawed and highly unlikely particularly when both of the legacy carriers have more capacity than current demand levels require. VA and QF have much deeper pockets so whilst a prolonged price war will hurt them, it will mortally wound ZL.

You assume REX can cover costs but, if VA/QF/JQ match their pricing, they are unlikely to be able to attract sufficient passengers to cover costs. Realistically, it is unlikely they are covering costs unless load factors exceed 70% and deeply discounted fares just increases this LF requirement further.

REX will further struggle if it tries to offer more routes. Its small fleet size leaves it extremely exposed to delays with massive knock-ons and disruption. Tiger suffered from the same issue but it was a low-cost carrier so you accepted that when you booked with them. Its small fleet also means it does does not have the frequencies to attract business travellers; opening more routes just makes this more obvious.

I think this is spot on.

IMHO VA and QF only need to match Rex’s fares to put them out of business. The comparison to Tiger is an apt one. While I was always satisfied with my experiences flying Tiger, if the price was equal then people would almost universally book away from them, even booking Jetstar over Tiger. ZL will experience the same phenomena so long as VA and QF match their fares, either due to loyalty or simple brand recognition. In a growing market ZL might stand a chance, in a depressed market where QF and VA have the excess capacity to keep the market flooded then ZL don’t have a hope of driving break-even load factors.

I also agree that they need to be careful not to spread themselves too thinly. Tiger has poor reliability in large part because they had a small fleet (8 aircraft?) operating at high utilisation across a fairly broad network.

tullamarine wrote:

ClassicLover wrote:

Deano969 wrote:

On a side note
Never understood why legacy airlines in Oz try to cover everything
In the US it seems more like airlines stick to their hubs
An example for Oz may be
VA could be Brisbane centric with Mel or Syd as secondary

You also need to look at geography. There are no hubs in Australia partly due to the location of the major cities. There is nowhere to actually hub from, in the traditional sense, so you have to serve all the different routes as that's just the nature of things in Australia.

Correct and also hubs in the USA are to link cities to medium size towns. Australia is highly urbanised with a population only 1/14 of the USA. It does not have that many medium size towns receiving commercial air services. Qld is closest to a state requiring hubs due to the most decentralised population in Australia though they are basically spread along a long coastline with the west of the state basically empty. BNE does operate as a hub to the medium sized towns from the southern capitals but these are all long stages by US standards and are all to the north rather than the classic hub and spoke map you would see in hubs such as DFW or ORD.

Agreed again. Queensland is the only state with a population sufficiently dispersed to support a hypothetical hub-and-spoke network. Townsville, Cairns, Mackay, Rockhampton and Gladstone are large enough towns, both in terms of population and economically, to support fairly significant levels of air travel.

No other state has that. The second closest would be NSW, with regional towns in the 40,000-60,000 mark such as Tamworth, Dubbo, Wagga Wagga, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Albury. The difference is that Sydney completely dominates NSW economically and demographically in a way that Brisbane does not.

After NSW what else is left? Launceston? Alice Springs?

Edit: for clarity, I’m counting Newcastle, Wollongong, Geelong within the broader Sydney and Melbourne metros, although that is more true for Geelong than Newcastle. Their proximity mean that AVV and NTL have always been hampered relative to their potential for cities of ~300,000. To a lesser extent that is also true of Canberra.

Another edit: WA is, obviously, a unique case with massive levels of intra-state demand, but that is a very different market and operating model to the US hub-and-spoke network. The two markets have basically nothing in common other than involving aircraft.

Source:
https://www.aeroin.net/embraer-e190-atr ... nova-casa/

Alliance Airlines, from Australia, received its second Embraer E190-E1, which took a long trip across the Pacific to its new home.

The plane, ex-COPA Airlines prefix HP-1563CMP, msn 19000098, an E190AR, made a long flight from
Costa Rica (San Juan-SJU), passing through San Diego (Brown Field-SDM), Hawaii (Honolulu-HNL), Marshall Islands (Majuro-MAJ) and finally Brisbane (BNE).
This last leg 4,284 km / 2,310 nm in distance.
In total 16,366 km / 8,837 nm were covered, two of which at least 12,000 km / 6,480 nm were over the Pacific .

RyanairGuru wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

Deano969 wrote:

I hope REX starts up flights on as many main line routes as possible and as quickly as possible
It's their best chance of success....
It may be one thing for QF / JQ and to a lesser extent VA to discount on one or 2 routes, but another thing entirely if REX starts flights on 8-10 routes
So long as REX can cover costs for a few months, QF and VA will eventually have to surrender, why?
Let's say REX fly Mel-Syd at 7.00am
QF would need to drop or match on their 7.00am, 8.00am and 8.30am flights to squeeze them out, also Jetstar would need to drop on 6.00am, 6.05am and 7.20am
So for every flight REX starts QF / JQ would need to compete on over 6 flights (although less on thinner routes) but you get the idea...

So how long will it take for QF / JQ and VA to just except the inevitable

On a side note
Never understood why legacy airlines in Oz try to cover everything
In the US it seems more like airlines stick to their hubs
An example for Oz may be
VA could be Brisbane centric with Mel or Syd as secondary

Your argument seems to be that QF/VA should just surrender market share so there is space for ZL to move into. This seems flawed and highly unlikely particularly when both of the legacy carriers have more capacity than current demand levels require. VA and QF have much deeper pockets so whilst a prolonged price war will hurt them, it will mortally wound ZL.

You assume REX can cover costs but, if VA/QF/JQ match their pricing, they are unlikely to be able to attract sufficient passengers to cover costs. Realistically, it is unlikely they are covering costs unless load factors exceed 70% and deeply discounted fares just increases this LF requirement further.

REX will further struggle if it tries to offer more routes. Its small fleet size leaves it extremely exposed to delays with massive knock-ons and disruption. Tiger suffered from the same issue but it was a low-cost carrier so you accepted that when you booked with them. Its small fleet also means it does does not have the frequencies to attract business travellers; opening more routes just makes this more obvious.

I think this is spot on.

IMHO VA and QF only need to match Rex’s fares to put them out of business. The comparison to Tiger is an apt one. While I was always satisfied with my experiences flying Tiger, if the price was equal then people would almost universally book away from them, even booking Jetstar over Tiger. ZL will experience the same phenomena so long as VA and QF match their fares, either due to loyalty or simple brand recognition. In a growing market ZL might stand a chance, in a depressed market where QF and VA have the excess capacity to keep the market flooded then ZL don’t have a hope of driving break-even load factors.

I also agree that they need to be careful not to spread themselves too thinly. Tiger has poor reliability in large part because they had a small fleet (8 aircraft?) operating at high utilisation across a fairly broad network.

And this is also spot on. I'd like to know what REX think they are going to do differently to others who have failed. It just seems like history repeating itself. I keep saying to myself I must be missing something. Surely there are smart people around the table who are now putting their proverbials on the line to make this a success....
I'm all for competition but a bit of stability in the aviation market wouldn't go astray atm

If you live in a regional town in Australia, you will quickly see that Australia has a hub system.

Or more particularly a hub and trunk system.

moa999 wrote:

If you live in a regional town in Australia, you will quickly see that Australia has a hub system.

Or more particularly a hub and trunk system.

Indeed. In saying that, as a point of interest, i think QFLink used to operate a mini scissor hub through ASP for east - west connections avoiding the major cities.

I can see parallels with Impulse Air in 2000.

Former regional turboprop airline that decided to buy jets and take on the big guys. Lasted 10 months before they surrendered to QF and became a wet lease operator for them.

Further Australian “3rd Airline” failures:

OzJet - lasted 4 months on major city routes before suspending operations in 2006.

Compass 1 - survived 1 year in 1991.

Compass 2 - survived 1 year in 1993.

East-West - survived a few years competing on main routes subsided by a regional network in the 80’s before being bought out by Ansett.

Tigerair - lasted 3 years on MEL-SYD before VA took over.

tullamarine wrote:

Your argument seems to be that QF/VA should just surrender market share so there is space for ZL to move into.

It surprises me how many Aviation enthusiasts and spotters believe airlines should be run like a charity not a business.

Rex now wants to begin flying SYD-CBR, but with Boeing 737s in peak hours and Saabs off-peak. John Sharp also says that SYD-MEL might not end up at the previously announced nine flights a day, it will depend on demand and so SYD-MEL could see less frequency, which I suppose would help them slip in the odd SYD-CBR-SYD leg.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ra-flights

Qantasman66 wrote:

Quick question, does anyone know if Sri Lankan airlines will continue to serve SYD, or are they just here temporarily?

I believe this is temporary, but the "temporary" has been going on for a while. If it works for UL, they may stay. 2021 for airlines all about being agile and chasing the 1 or 2 dollars where they can get it, and letting the punters (us) play the wait-and-see game.

tullamarine wrote:

CraigAnderson wrote:

Rex now wants to begin flying SYD-CBR, but with Boeing 737s in peak hours and Saabs off-peak. John Sharp also says that SYD-MEL might not end up at the previously announced nine flights a day, it will depend on demand and so SYD-MEL could see less frequency, which I suppose would help them slip in the odd SYD-CBR-SYD leg.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ra-flights

Some would say they are running an agile business plan, others would say they are running the classic "Plan B" business plan which is "Plan A with a touch of panic."

Tend to agree. It’s a fine line.

What it could be seen as by potential customers is a lack of reliability that their services will operate, as this ramp up, ramp down strategy may well have an impact on travelers plans.

There is a feel good factor about these new ZL services, but it’s going to be very challenging. QF/JQ and VA aren’t going to just let them walk in and have their way, and outside of a few markets, there is limited scope for 3 airlines on a route.

myki wrote:

Qantasman66 wrote:

Quick question, does anyone know if Sri Lankan airlines will continue to serve SYD, or are they just here temporarily?

I believe this is temporary, but the "temporary" has been going on for a while. If it works for UL, they may stay. 2021 for airlines all about being agile and chasing the 1 or 2 dollars where they can get it, and letting the punters (us) play the wait-and-see game.

Is Victoria accepting international arrivals again yet? I've lost track.

UL will be one of the interesting ones to watch in this year's "which airlines will return where" spectator sport. All ports will be looking to rebuild traffic volumes, perhaps willing to cut deals they would not have considered a year or so ago. Or governments may be willing to provide subsidies they would not have previously considered.

tullamarine wrote:

Thatcher wrote:

myki wrote:

I believe this is temporary, but the "temporary" has been going on for a while. If it works for UL, they may stay. 2021 for airlines all about being agile and chasing the 1 or 2 dollars where they can get it, and letting the punters (us) play the wait-and-see game.

Is Victoria accepting international arrivals again yet? I've lost track.

UL will be one of the interesting ones to watch in this year's "which airlines will return where" spectator sport. All ports will be looking to rebuild traffic volumes, perhaps willing to cut deals they would not have considered a year or so ago. Or governments may be willing to provide subsidies they would not have previously considered.

Victoria is not accepting international arrivals currently though, with reduced numbers allowed into any city, it is freight that determines whether an airline thinks services into Australia are worth it at the moment.

UL has traditionally flown to MEL in preference to SYD due to the larger Sri Lankan diaspora in the former. With their Oneworld membership, they do have the opportunity to be a quality 1 stop alternative for flights into India if they choose to promote themselves that way.

Re the one stop to India aspect, I’m pretty sure that was Oneworld’s plan when Kingfisher stopped short of joining, UL become the next best thing available

Regarding a third airline
I simply don't get why it is that those on here say that Australia can not support 3 major airlines and I don't include QFs LCC offshoot JQ as an airline, it's as much of an airline as Qantas Link
43 per day between Syd and Mel
30 per day between Syd and Bne
Even 8 per day between Per and Syd
And these are covid levels
Plenty of thinner routes in the US, in fact you would struggle to se 20+ per day between and city pair in the US and I do understand that there are more city pairs in the US
Yes
East West
Compass
Oz Jet
Impulse
Tiger
All in some way were bullied out of existence by a duopoly QF AN then QF VA

It's great for the consumer when a new entrant like REX comes along, great fares to be had for a while, then the inevitable happens and the fares go up again and the flying consumers get ripped, just as they do on regional routes with no competition
EG
Syd Mel $70
Syd Tamworth $150 QF only

There is room for 3 players in Oz, but as it has been said by some on here, who has the deepest pockets will win, but ask yourself just how those pockets became so deep?

If Coles and Woolies muscled out the competition, the ACCC steps in, this is why you can't get more than $0.04 per litre off your petrol, so why do they let QF and VA muscle out new players?

REX to their credit, although mostly running on routes that QF and VA couldn't be bothered with, have tried their best with stuff like community fares, even with no competition on many of these routes. They have also gone up against numerous local council airports who have been jacking up fees well above inflation, where they could have just laid back and passed the costs on, some call it whinging
Then QF throw flights onto routes that barely justify one carrier just to punish REX for daring to have a go at mainline
Even Alliance were in the crosshairs when they pioneered MCY CBR and Cairns, then, perhaps a deal was done with QQ and QF with Ejets and QF withdrew from those routes
Although REX is Singaporean majority owned, it's still on the ASX and you can buy shares in it and IMHO it is a true Aussie battler, and I hope they can outlast the deep pockets of QF and stick it too them

Does anyone know why the first 2 B737s that Rex were to operate have gone into storage at Jakarta?

I flew Rex last night Sydney to Melbourne, the flight that was delayed 2 hours. Pilot informed us that the issue was a computer that needed to be replaced. Excluding the delay I was very impressed overall, and would fly them again. They did a much better job of keeping passengers updated compared to when I had a 2 hour delay with Jetstar last weekend. Once it was clear that the delay was going to be a while the crew came out and handed out cupcakes to everyone, along with the goodie bag which was a first day special I believe (A few magazines, Rex cap and water bottle). All the staff were very friendly and apologised many times for the delay, which is definitely better service than I've had on Qantas or Jetstar over the past 2 years when there has been a delay. Was their enthusaism because it was the first day and they knew a 2 hour delay wasn't a good look? Possibly.

A more streamlined check-in process would help, as it seemed like I needed to print the boarding pass off at home so opted to check-in at the airport. Very simple, easy self check-in kiosk, with added bonus of being able to select an exit row at no extra charge upon check in. Flight itself was on the whole rather uneventful. Snack was a small packet of soya crisps, with offer of water, tea or coffee as the drink. They also provided complimentary alcoholic beverages as it was the inaugural day. Definitely the friendliest crew I've experienced on a domestic Australian flight in years, so well done to them after what would have been a tough first day. Hopefully that keeps up beyond the first day. Flight was probably around 50 - 60% full. Apart from the first row of economy all the old virgin Economy X rows still did indeed have the Economy X headrests.

Yes, there was a 2 hour delay but I personally have had some very average on time performance from the others so far this year, about 1/3 of my flights with Qantas between SYD/MEL have been cancelled over the past 2 years often with very minimal notice (1am texts for a 7am flight) so provided Rex doesn't make it a habitat one delay isn't a deal breaker for me on this route as a delay is rather common. In saying this the others have a lot more flexibility with spare aircraft currently and other flights to be shifted onto if one is cancelled, for a while last night it wasn't looking like I was leaving Sydney given the lack of spare planes. Whereas last weekend Jetstar was able to shift us onto a new plane.

After flying Qantas, Virgin, Jetstar and Rex between capitals so far in 2021 I would probably rank them in the order of Qantas, Rex, Virgin, Jetstar in terms of preference - although may need to recalibrate this once I fly Rex again next weekend and see if the service is at the same level. Given I booked the flight for $49 some 48 hours beforehand, Rex would rate as best value. Also can't complain about an emptier plane from a comfort and space point of view as all my recent Jetstar flights have been very full.

Like others I'm not certain how long Rex is going to last doing this, but if it brings some competition to the space and brings cheaper airfares for us for a while then that isn't a bad outcome. As someone who has travelled pretty consistently since the start of the pandemic last year, it has been excellent to see airport terminals starting to get busy again over the past few weeks. Probably still only 60 - 70% of usual foot traffic at its busiest and still a lot of closed shops/food outles, but compared to what airports were like in May/June last year it is very refreshing to see and hopefully it continues to improve.

Australia's international travel ban extended to June 2021

Most Australians will remain banned from international travel until at least June 2021, following an extension of the 'biosecurity emergency period' that enables the Federal Government to place restrictions on overseas flights and cruise ships.
Health Minister Greg Hunt this evening confirmed that the "human biosecurity emergency period" declared under the Biosecurity Act 2015, which has been in place since 17 March 2020 and was previously due to end on 17 March 2021, will be extended by an additional three months until 17 June 2021."
This will mark 15 months since the country's borders were slammed shut in the face of COVID-19.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... AjF12Zxib8


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[quote="RyanairGuru"][/quote]

As for VIC, Mildura & Bendigo are the only 2 non-metro centres that see scheduled flights.

Mildura is a 6 hour drive from Melbourne, and Bendigo only sees QF link flights to Sydney because of demand from Bendigo Bank, and possibly some of the Defence contractors - MEL is 'only' a 90 minute drive away. VIC regional cities such as Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton & much of the LaTrobe Valley/Gippsland are within 2 hours or so drive of MEL, Wodonga & northern VIC are serviced by Albury.

Though out of left field, you have the Latrobe regional airport at Traralgon, not sure what work would be needed to enable 737 service. In the current situation with no overseas leisure travel, TGN would have the potential to service leisure-focused routes to OOL, etc. You have a wide catchment area that extends into outer Melbourne suburbs such as Pakenham & Berwick where the travel time would be similar to MEL, but the drive would be much easier from those areas with reasonably light traffic, and no freeway changes compared with the drive to Tulla. Not to mention the potential for cheap long-term parking in the manner of AVV also.

Deano969 wrote:

Regarding a third airline
I simply don't get why it is that those on here say that Australia can not support 3 major airlines and I don't include QFs LCC offshoot JQ as an airline, it's as much of an airline as Qantas Link
43 per day between Syd and Mel
30 per day between Syd and Bne
Even 8 per day between Per and Syd
And these are covid levels
Plenty of thinner routes in the US, in fact you would struggle to se 20+ per day between and city pair in the US and I do understand that there are more city pairs in the US
Yes
East West
Compass
Oz Jet
Impulse
Tiger
All in some way were bullied out of existence by a duopoly QF AN then QF VA

It's great for the consumer when a new entrant like REX comes along, great fares to be had for a while, then the inevitable happens and the fares go up again and the flying consumers get ripped, just as they do on regional routes with no competition
EG
Syd Mel $70
Syd Tamworth $150 QF only

There is room for 3 players in Oz, but as it has been said by some on here, who has the deepest pockets will win, but ask yourself just how those pockets became so deep?

If Coles and Woolies muscled out the competition, the ACCC steps in, this is why you can't get more than $0.04 per litre off your petrol, so why do they let QF and VA muscle out new players?

REX to their credit, although mostly running on routes that QF and VA couldn't be bothered with, have tried their best with stuff like community fares, even with no competition on many of these routes. They have also gone up against numerous local council airports who have been jacking up fees well above inflation, where they could have just laid back and passed the costs on, some call it whinging
Then QF throw flights onto routes that barely justify one carrier just to punish REX for daring to have a go at mainline
Even Alliance were in the crosshairs when they pioneered MCY CBR and Cairns, then, perhaps a deal was done with QQ and QF with Ejets and QF withdrew from those routes
Although REX is Singaporean majority owned, it's still on the ASX and you can buy shares in it and IMHO it is a true Aussie battler, and I hope they can outlast the deep pockets of QF and stick it too them

Australia is and will never be a market that is even remotely close to the USA.

You don't have those workers being paid $8 an hour.

You don't have a large international/transborder market that you can support.

You don't have much international coverage that can be realistically done by narrowbodies.

Heck if it's not the pandemic you can't even get slots in Sydney or Melbourne during peak hours.

If the only way to stop a monopoly or duopoly is to impose regulatory limitations to begin with, then it already tells you that the market is NOT big enough to support multiple player, very much to the contary of what you thought. If it's big enough loyalty programs etc. will be nothing with a constant flow of people chasing for lower end products, just like what happened in the USA, Asia and Europe. The market in USA is seriously big enough with populations spread out enough that WN can share a slice 40 years ago, and B6 and Allegiant can be what they are today. Not a chance in hell in Australia unless you suddenly stuff in 100 million people in here.

Michael

QF (QFA) is eyeing a fleet renewal of its 737s (along with likely getting more aid): https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... et-renewal (some of the 737s are approaching 20 years of age).

Through subsidiaries JQ and QF (NWK), there are A320s in the fleet. However, it may be easier to get a 737 MAX instead of an A320/A321neo (beyond the order for Jetstar-branded airlines); however, there is that in-limbo order for the AirAsia suite of airlines where delivery slots could be purchased for faster delivery. (Qantas also needs to replace its ancient 737 Classic freighters at QE.) On the freighter side, VWY/Z from JQ could be candidates to be sent out for conversion (VWY once its lease expires). This would give QF a total of 5 A321 freighters.

However, Boeing would not want to lose another customer to Airbus, and has white tails it could sell to QF (as of last November, Boeing had about 100 whitetails, primarily the MAX 8: https://fortune.com/2020/12/22/boeing-7 ... -airlines/). The 7M8 would seem to be a natural 738 replacement...but could the 7MJ be a possibility as well on trunk routes in eastern Australia on routes between SYD, MEL, BNE, and CBR, as well as SYD-PER? (Such could be configured to around 200 passengers.)

aemoreira1981 wrote:

QF (QFA) is eyeing a fleet renewal of its 737s (along with likely getting more aid): https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... et-renewal (some of the 737s are approaching 20 years of age).

Through subsidiaries JQ and QF (NWK), there are A320s in the fleet. However, it may be easier to get a 737 MAX instead of an A320/A321neo (beyond the order for Jetstar-branded airlines); however, there is that in-limbo order for the AirAsia suite of airlines where delivery slots could be purchased for faster delivery. (Qantas also needs to replace its ancient 737 Classic freighters at QE.) On the freighter side, VWY/Z from JQ could be candidates to be sent out for conversion (VWY once its lease expires). This would give QF a total of 5 A321 freighters.

Across the group's Australian narrowbodies it's about 60/40 B/A - if you included the Jetstar subsidiaries it pitches the other way. But the JQ fleet is a little newer than QF.

IIRC, the A320 was chosen for JetStar to provide a reason to differentiate pay structures, but I don't know whether this is still applicable. ACross the group they are very experienced across both types (although not NEO/MAX) so it really depends on how attractive each manufacturer can make the deal.

The freighters are quite a different issue, with demand rather than fleet age being the most significant factor.

tullamarine wrote:

If they had taken the ULCC route, I think they may have had a better chance of carving out a niche. In marketing their is a concept called USP (unique selling proposition) which attracts customers to use them rather their established competitors. As it s, REX doesn't appear to have a USP.

Their USP could have been as a genuine regional connector. If they'd gone with smaller planes, collecting passengers at for example SYD ex NSW and VIC Destinations, taking them to BNE, all on the one ticket in a nicely planned bank, it would be different to the onslaught they're about to realise from QF and VA...

EK413 wrote:

Australia's international travel ban extended to June 2021

Most Australians will remain banned from international travel until at least June 2021, following an extension of the 'biosecurity emergency period' that enables the Federal Government to place restrictions on overseas flights and cruise ships.
Health Minister Greg Hunt this evening confirmed that the "human biosecurity emergency period" declared under the Biosecurity Act 2015, which has been in place since 17 March 2020 and was previously due to end on 17 March 2021, will be extended by an additional three months until 17 June 2021."
This will mark 15 months since the country's borders were slammed shut in the face of COVID-19.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... AjF12Zxib8


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A further three months extension from June would take us close to the scheduled end of the vaccination rollout. AJ is talking late October for international resumption, yet it would not surprise me if some state premiers hold very different views. These extension decisions will soon become much more difficult / contentious for Mr Hunt.