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tullamarine
Posts: 2750
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:59 am

Thatcher wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Australia's international travel ban extended to June 2021

Most Australians will remain banned from international travel until at least June 2021, following an extension of the 'biosecurity emergency period' that enables the Federal Government to place restrictions on overseas flights and cruise ships.
Health Minister Greg Hunt this evening confirmed that the "human biosecurity emergency period" declared under the Biosecurity Act 2015, which has been in place since 17 March 2020 and was previously due to end on 17 March 2021, will be extended by an additional three months until 17 June 2021."
This will mark 15 months since the country's borders were slammed shut in the face of COVID-19.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... AjF12Zxib8


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


A further three months extension from June would take us close to the scheduled end of the vaccination rollout. AJ is talking late October for international resumption, yet it would not surprise me if some state premiers hold very different views. These extension decisions will soon become much more difficult / contentious for Mr Hunt.


Yes, the premiers, many who have enjoyed the novelty of some relevance over the past year, are still likely to be a problem even with a completed rollout of the vaccine. They, supported by the unquestioning press, have become obsessed with keeping infections to zero. The fact is, once we reopen the borders and remove hotel quarantine, infections will be quite high by historical standards but the purpose of the vaccines is to remove the risk that infection will lead to serious illness, hospitalisation or death. They apparently do this quite well but they do not remove infection; until the premiers understand this, we are in for a difficult time.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
zkncj
Posts: 4166
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:42 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
QF (QFA) is eyeing a fleet renewal of its 737s (along with likely getting more aid): https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... et-renewal (some of the 737s are approaching 20 years of age).

Through subsidiaries JQ and QF (NWK), there are A320s in the fleet. However, it may be easier to get a 737 MAX instead of an A320/A321neo (beyond the order for Jetstar-branded airlines); however, there is that in-limbo order for the AirAsia suite of airlines where delivery slots could be purchased for faster delivery. (Qantas also needs to replace its ancient 737 Classic freighters at QE.) On the freighter side, VWY/Z from JQ could be candidates to be sent out for conversion (VWY once its lease expires). This would give QF a total of 5 A321 freighters.

However, Boeing would not want to lose another customer to Airbus, and has white tails it could sell to QF (as of last November, Boeing had about 100 whitetails, primarily the MAX 8: https://fortune.com/2020/12/22/boeing-7 ... -airlines/). The 7M8 would seem to be a natural 738 replacement...but could the 7MJ be a possibility as well on trunk routes in eastern Australia on routes between SYD, MEL, BNE, and CBR, as well as SYD-PER? (Such could be configured to around 200 passengers.)


The Qantas Group already has approximately 100 a321NEO/320NEO’s on order. With the current global situation I would highly suspect some of this order will end up on QF mainline services to replace the 737.

Going forward I would suspect that QLink will become an larger a320 operator. Which still start to spread beyond the regional Western Australian routes overtime.

Crewing costs on QF Mainline 738s is higher than average, the crew are some of the highest paid in the industry for that type of role.

Shifting routes between SYD/MEL/BNE onto QLink would had major crew cost savings.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 683
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:54 am

zkncj wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
QF (QFA) is eyeing a fleet renewal of its 737s (along with likely getting more aid): https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... et-renewal (some of the 737s are approaching 20 years of age).

Through subsidiaries JQ and QF (NWK), there are A320s in the fleet. However, it may be easier to get a 737 MAX instead of an A320/A321neo (beyond the order for Jetstar-branded airlines); however, there is that in-limbo order for the AirAsia suite of airlines where delivery slots could be purchased for faster delivery. (Qantas also needs to replace its ancient 737 Classic freighters at QE.) On the freighter side, VWY/Z from JQ could be candidates to be sent out for conversion (VWY once its lease expires). This would give QF a total of 5 A321 freighters.

However, Boeing would not want to lose another customer to Airbus, and has white tails it could sell to QF (as of last November, Boeing had about 100 whitetails, primarily the MAX 8: https://fortune.com/2020/12/22/boeing-7 ... -airlines/). The 7M8 would seem to be a natural 738 replacement...but could the 7MJ be a possibility as well on trunk routes in eastern Australia on routes between SYD, MEL, BNE, and CBR, as well as SYD-PER? (Such could be configured to around 200 passengers.)


The Qantas Group already has approximately 100 a321NEO/320NEO’s on order. With the current global situation I would highly suspect some of this order will end up on QF mainline services to replace the 737.

Going forward I would suspect that QLink will become an larger a320 operator. Which still start to spread beyond the regional Western Australian routes overtime.

Crewing costs on QF Mainline 738s is higher than average, the crew are some of the highest paid in the industry for that type of role.

Shifting routes between SYD/MEL/BNE onto QLink would had major crew cost savings.


Indeed, its almost getting to the point that QF is a holding company for subsidiaries. Seems crazy that an aircraft the size of an A320 is now QF Link (with 180 seat JQ interiors) , there are obviously no scope clauses with mainline ?
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 542
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:08 am

zkncj wrote:
The Qantas Group already has approximately 100 a321NEO/320NEO’s on order. With the current global situation I would highly suspect some of this order will end up on QF mainline services to replace the 737.

Going forward I would suspect that QLink will become an larger a320 operator. Which still start to spread beyond the regional Western Australian routes overtime.

Crewing costs on QF Mainline 738s is higher than average, the crew are some of the highest paid in the industry for that type of role.

Shifting routes between SYD/MEL/BNE onto QLink would had major crew cost savings.


Qantas domestic crews are paid comparable to Virgin crews, with a lower minimum guaranteed pay, so in fact when Qantas crews are not flying much as has been over the last 12 months QF domestic crews are actually cheaper than VA and some QLink crews who have higher guaranteed pay. Qantas domestic contracts are quite flexible compared to international ones. For the last few years it's always been Qantas International crews who have had the most pressure applied to them to get them to reduce wages, early last year they were told that outsourcing of A350 Project Sunrise flying would happen if they didn't agree to a more efficient contract. No such tactic has been used against Domestic crews.

Other thing is the replacement aircraft is a long term project from 2026 onwards. By then air travel will have returned to pre 2020 levels. Which presents a problem. Qantas gave 250 pilots (over 10% of their numbers) voluntary redundancy. So when all QF aircraft are back in service around 2023 then they will be short of pilots. Younger people will be dissuaded from becoming pilots for the next few years which will see a decrease in supply, an increase in demand in pilots needed around 2025 and therefore higher wages. Plus the overall increase in global pilot demand that will happen with an industrializing third world by the end of the decade. So long term farming out pilots to cheaper subsidies isn't a long term solution.

There's laws to stop that type of thing as well. You can't just keep moving business to cheaper subsidiaries non stop. It's called transmission of business and quite illegal. If that was the case every airline in the country would be creating minimum wage subsidies everywhere. But there isn't a single airline that pays it's pilots at bare minimum award wages. Not even JQ or TT when they were around.

Qantas domestic won't be the problem for the Qantas group in the years ahead. It will be the cash cow.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1821
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:56 am

tullamarine wrote:
Yes, the premiers, many who have enjoyed the novelty of some relevance over the past year, are still likely to be a problem even with a completed rollout of the vaccine. They, supported by the unquestioning press, have become obsessed with keeping infections to zero. The fact is, once we reopen the borders and remove hotel quarantine, infections will be quite high by historical standards but the purpose of the vaccines is to remove the risk that infection will lead to serious illness, hospitalisation or death. They apparently do this quite well but they do not remove infection; until the premiers understand this, we are in for a difficult time.

And keeping infections to zero is surely the best possible strategy, given the extremely infectious nature of the virus. In the absence of a vaccine, this was surely the only option to avoid becoming like other parts of the world.

With a vaccine rollout, everything changes. But to accept infection rates that are "historically high" is almost certainly a step too far - not least for the countries from which Australia is hoping to attract visitors. Especially if there's a risk of the virus running rampant through the unvaccinated portion of the population (perhaps 30%?). A serious recovery in pax numbers will not happen until (a) the vast majority of Australians are vaccinated, and (b) until vaccination is a prerequisite for entry into the country.

On my (NZ) side of the Tasman, there would be close to zero public tolerance of "historically high" infection levels and the borders would close again pretty damned quick if that happened, vaccine or no vaccine. To suggest that the state premiers somehow don't understand the mechanisms by which the vaccine works is completely missing the mark IMO. This is really all about public confidence. Can you imagine how things will pan out if a big resurgence of community transmission can be traced to multiple infectious visitors?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2750
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:15 am

DavidByrne wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Yes, the premiers, many who have enjoyed the novelty of some relevance over the past year, are still likely to be a problem even with a completed rollout of the vaccine. They, supported by the unquestioning press, have become obsessed with keeping infections to zero. The fact is, once we reopen the borders and remove hotel quarantine, infections will be quite high by historical standards but the purpose of the vaccines is to remove the risk that infection will lead to serious illness, hospitalisation or death. They apparently do this quite well but they do not remove infection; until the premiers understand this, we are in for a difficult time.

And keeping infections to zero is surely the best possible strategy, given the extremely infectious nature of the virus. In the absence of a vaccine, this was surely the only option to avoid becoming like other parts of the world.

With a vaccine rollout, everything changes. But to accept infection rates that are "historically high" is almost certainly a step too far - not least for the countries from which Australia is hoping to attract visitors. Especially if there's a risk of the virus running rampant through the unvaccinated portion of the population (perhaps 30%?). A serious recovery in pax numbers will not happen until (a) the vast majority of Australians are vaccinated, and (b) until vaccination is a prerequisite for entry into the country.

On my (NZ) side of the Tasman, there would be close to zero public tolerance of "historically high" infection levels and the borders would close again pretty damned quick if that happened, vaccine or no vaccine. To suggest that the state premiers somehow don't understand the mechanisms by which the vaccine works is completely missing the mark IMO. This is really all about public confidence. Can you imagine how things will pan out if a big resurgence of community transmission can be traced to multiple infectious visitors?

...but that is the future. Covid will not go away entirely; it will circulate for years to come. None of the existing vaccines stop the vaccinated person acquiring Covid and it is likely they may still be able to pass it on. What all the vaccines do well is stop it turning into a serious illness causing hospitalisation and death. It will continue to circulate in the community but hopefully it will be largely asymptomatic for most people or similar to a heavy cold at worst. If you want to keep infections at zero, you are asking for the current level of restrictions to continue indefinitely. I don't think that is a tenable position.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5118
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:33 am

jrfspa320 Reply #53
Seems crazy that an aircraft the size of an A320 is now QF Link (with 180 seat JQ interiors) , there are obviously no scope clauses with mainline ?


While I'm not a legal person I do believe that a scope clause would be illegal under our trade practices [anti-trust] laws, They are certainly not to be found in Australian aviation, AFAIK.

Gemuser
 
DavidByrne
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Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:40 am

tullamarine wrote:
...but that is the future. Covid will not go away entirely; it will circulate for years to come. None of the existing vaccines stop the vaccinated person acquiring Covid and it is likely they may still be able to pass it on. What all the vaccines do well is stop it turning into a serious illness causing hospitalisation and death. It will continue to circulate in the community but hopefully it will be largely asymptomatic for most people or similar to a heavy cold at worst. If you want to keep infections at zero, you are asking for the current level of restrictions to continue indefinitely. I don't think that is a tenable position.

I acknowledge your argument (though I don't know whether it's yet been properly established just how infectious vaccinated people could be).

However, I don't think we can summarily dismiss vaccinated people who do get covid (and many may, on the basis of what we know) with "hopeful" predictions that it may be no worse than a cold.

The problem is that no government can tolerate the risks that their unvaccinated 30% or whatever may create an ongoing public health issue in which covid runs riot. And if the source of those infections can be traced to visitors it will be hard for governments not to reimpose travel or border restrictions of some sort.

It's a serious conundrum. I think that the revival of the tourist sector will be strongly influenced by the level of public confidence that individuals both in Aus/NZ and in our target visitor markets have about the likelihood of becoming infected during their trip. I'm picking that for many people it may be some while before they consider the risks of travel to be acceptable.

Given the vaccine may be no guarantee against infection, those who expect QF's and NZ's long-haul operations to bounce quickly back may also be very disappointed.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3421
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:43 pm

There will be no open borders until health authorities say so. Qantas can push as hard as they want, but the reality is we didn’t go through all the hard work of the past year to open up too early and end up with more pain.

For the majority of the economy having Covid free status is more important than trying to increase risk and trying to tap into a global market that is still greatly affected by the virus.

Nearly every person that leaves the country expects to come back when they want, and that means significant Hotel quarantine risk from a far larger program. Home quarantine won’t be happening any time soon either as it carries numerous increased risk points.

Vaccinations will take time, and then there is the review process to ensure it is effective against new strains. As that research comes in, government will be better placed to make decisions to open up again for increased international travel.

Let’s rebuild domestic tourism confidence first, which will greatly assist the airlines, then look at international travel at a later date. That is more likely to be 2022 by the time most travel restrictions will be removed if all goes well. Expecting anything more at this stage is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
 
aschachter
Posts: 74
Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:37 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:14 am

zkncj wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
QF (QFA) is eyeing a fleet renewal of its 737s (along with likely getting more aid): https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... et-renewal (some of the 737s are approaching 20 years of age).

Through subsidiaries JQ and QF (NWK), there are A320s in the fleet. However, it may be easier to get a 737 MAX instead of an A320/A321neo (beyond the order for Jetstar-branded airlines); however, there is that in-limbo order for the AirAsia suite of airlines where delivery slots could be purchased for faster delivery. (Qantas also needs to replace its ancient 737 Classic freighters at QE.) On the freighter side, VWY/Z from JQ could be candidates to be sent out for conversion (VWY once its lease expires). This would give QF a total of 5 A321 freighters.

However, Boeing would not want to lose another customer to Airbus, and has white tails it could sell to QF (as of last November, Boeing had about 100 whitetails, primarily the MAX 8: https://fortune.com/2020/12/22/boeing-7 ... -airlines/). The 7M8 would seem to be a natural 738 replacement...but could the 7MJ be a possibility as well on trunk routes in eastern Australia on routes between SYD, MEL, BNE, and CBR, as well as SYD-PER? (Such could be configured to around 200 passengers.)


The Qantas Group already has approximately 100 a321NEO/320NEO’s on order. With the current global situation I would highly suspect some of this order will end up on QF mainline services to replace the 737.

Going forward I would suspect that QLink will become an larger a320 operator. Which still start to spread beyond the regional Western Australian routes overtime.

Crewing costs on QF Mainline 738s is higher than average, the crew are some of the highest paid in the industry for that type of role.

Shifting routes between SYD/MEL/BNE onto QLink would had major crew cost savings.


If would definitely have cost savings, but making a large number of staff redundant to bring in lower cost employees on the Golden Triangle, wouldn't be popular with unions or the general public. Also having QLink A320s compared to Mainline Aircraft would be a differentiation that QF probably wouldn't want to do.

It will be an interesting competition when it happens and once again like the 777x Vs A350 competition, it will be Boeing's to lose. I think it will be more than likely 737 Maxs, together with whatever the NMA becomes, as QF are definitely interested in the NMA for the Golden Triangle and also Perth Flights rather than lugging A330s and 787s (already said to be too heavy for Domestic) on the occasional services
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8640
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:42 am

aschachter wrote:
zkncj wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
QF (QFA) is eyeing a fleet renewal of its 737s (along with likely getting more aid): https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... et-renewal (some of the 737s are approaching 20 years of age).

Through subsidiaries JQ and QF (NWK), there are A320s in the fleet. However, it may be easier to get a 737 MAX instead of an A320/A321neo (beyond the order for Jetstar-branded airlines); however, there is that in-limbo order for the AirAsia suite of airlines where delivery slots could be purchased for faster delivery. (Qantas also needs to replace its ancient 737 Classic freighters at QE.) On the freighter side, VWY/Z from JQ could be candidates to be sent out for conversion (VWY once its lease expires). This would give QF a total of 5 A321 freighters.

However, Boeing would not want to lose another customer to Airbus, and has white tails it could sell to QF (as of last November, Boeing had about 100 whitetails, primarily the MAX 8: https://fortune.com/2020/12/22/boeing-7 ... -airlines/). The 7M8 would seem to be a natural 738 replacement...but could the 7MJ be a possibility as well on trunk routes in eastern Australia on routes between SYD, MEL, BNE, and CBR, as well as SYD-PER? (Such could be configured to around 200 passengers.)


The Qantas Group already has approximately 100 a321NEO/320NEO’s on order. With the current global situation I would highly suspect some of this order will end up on QF mainline services to replace the 737.

Going forward I would suspect that QLink will become an larger a320 operator. Which still start to spread beyond the regional Western Australian routes overtime.

Crewing costs on QF Mainline 738s is higher than average, the crew are some of the highest paid in the industry for that type of role.

Shifting routes between SYD/MEL/BNE onto QLink would had major crew cost savings.


If would definitely have cost savings, but making a large number of staff redundant to bring in lower cost employees on the Golden Triangle, wouldn't be popular with unions or the general public. Also having QLink A320s compared to Mainline Aircraft would be a differentiation that QF probably wouldn't want to do.

It will be an interesting competition when it happens and once again like the 777x Vs A350 competition, it will be Boeing's to lose. I think it will be more than likely 737 Maxs, together with whatever the NMA becomes, as QF are definitely interested in the NMA for the Golden Triangle and also Perth Flights rather than lugging A330s and 787s (already said to be too heavy for Domestic) on the occasional services


The known unknown here is whether Jetstar need 100 NEOs during the intermediate future? If not then reallocating part of the existing order (with a top-up as necessary) is the sensible choice. If Jetstar do take the entire order then I think Qantas will order MAX. Boeing will be very keen to do a deal, and minimising capex will be Qantas’ priority. By the time of delivery in 2024 most of the general public will have forgotten about the MAX debacle which would have been 6-7 years earlier.

As for the NMA, this aircraft is still a blank sheet of paper. EIS before 2030 seems very unlikely now, and I don’t think any airline is going to plan their future fleet around it (IMHO even Delta and United have either given up or soon will). Although it does involve carrying around excess weight on short sectors, I would not be at all surprised to see the 12 Jetstar 788s be repurposed as the “domestic” widebody fleet. They are already owned, and therefore have baked in capex savings.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
aschachter
Posts: 74
Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:37 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:03 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
aschachter wrote:
zkncj wrote:

The Qantas Group already has approximately 100 a321NEO/320NEO’s on order. With the current global situation I would highly suspect some of this order will end up on QF mainline services to replace the 737.

Going forward I would suspect that QLink will become an larger a320 operator. Which still start to spread beyond the regional Western Australian routes overtime.

Crewing costs on QF Mainline 738s is higher than average, the crew are some of the highest paid in the industry for that type of role.

Shifting routes between SYD/MEL/BNE onto QLink would had major crew cost savings.


If would definitely have cost savings, but making a large number of staff redundant to bring in lower cost employees on the Golden Triangle, wouldn't be popular with unions or the general public. Also having QLink A320s compared to Mainline Aircraft would be a differentiation that QF probably wouldn't want to do.

It will be an interesting competition when it happens and once again like the 777x Vs A350 competition, it will be Boeing's to lose. I think it will be more than likely 737 Maxs, together with whatever the NMA becomes, as QF are definitely interested in the NMA for the Golden Triangle and also Perth Flights rather than lugging A330s and 787s (already said to be too heavy for Domestic) on the occasional services


The known unknown here is whether Jetstar need 100 NEOs during the intermediate future? If not then reallocating part of the existing order (with a top-up as necessary) is the sensible choice. If Jetstar do take the entire order then I think Qantas will order MAX. Boeing will be very keen to do a deal, and minimising capex will be Qantas’ priority. By the time of delivery in 2024 most of the general public will have forgotten about the MAX debacle which would have been 6-7 years earlier.

As for the NMA, this aircraft is still a blank sheet of paper. EIS before 2030 seems very unlikely now, and I don’t think any airline is going to plan their future fleet around it (IMHO even Delta and United have either given up or soon will). Although it does involve carrying around excess weight on short sectors, I would not be at all surprised to see the 12 Jetstar 788s be repurposed as the “domestic” widebody fleet. They are already owned, and therefore have baked in capex savings.


I agree with your reasoning and when that big A320 order was made with Airbus, when there was Jetstar Hong Kong (failed) and Jetstar Pacific (sold to Vietnam Airlines) and possibly other Jetstar Ventures. So, if these are firm orders, unlike the original QF 787 order which were some time of options, some may end up in the mainline fleet, but it will be interesting to see how QF and the Unions try differentiate those crews wages between QF, Jetstar and QF Link...
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2750
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:20 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
aschachter wrote:
zkncj wrote:

The Qantas Group already has approximately 100 a321NEO/320NEO’s on order. With the current global situation I would highly suspect some of this order will end up on QF mainline services to replace the 737.

Going forward I would suspect that QLink will become an larger a320 operator. Which still start to spread beyond the regional Western Australian routes overtime.

Crewing costs on QF Mainline 738s is higher than average, the crew are some of the highest paid in the industry for that type of role.

Shifting routes between SYD/MEL/BNE onto QLink would had major crew cost savings.


If would definitely have cost savings, but making a large number of staff redundant to bring in lower cost employees on the Golden Triangle, wouldn't be popular with unions or the general public. Also having QLink A320s compared to Mainline Aircraft would be a differentiation that QF probably wouldn't want to do.

It will be an interesting competition when it happens and once again like the 777x Vs A350 competition, it will be Boeing's to lose. I think it will be more than likely 737 Maxs, together with whatever the NMA becomes, as QF are definitely interested in the NMA for the Golden Triangle and also Perth Flights rather than lugging A330s and 787s (already said to be too heavy for Domestic) on the occasional services


The known unknown here is whether Jetstar need 100 NEOs during the intermediate future? If not then reallocating part of the existing order (with a top-up as necessary) is the sensible choice. If Jetstar do take the entire order then I think Qantas will order MAX. Boeing will be very keen to do a deal, and minimising capex will be Qantas’ priority. By the time of delivery in 2024 most of the general public will have forgotten about the MAX debacle which would have been 6-7 years earlier.

As for the NMA, this aircraft is still a blank sheet of paper. EIS before 2030 seems very unlikely now, and I don’t think any airline is going to plan their future fleet around it (IMHO even Delta and United have either given up or soon will). Although it does involve carrying around excess weight on short sectors, I would not be at all surprised to see the 12 Jetstar 788s be repurposed as the “domestic” widebody fleet. They are already owned, and therefore have baked in capex savings.

Once again, we are in agreement, which in some respects is a bit of a worry; I enjoyed our occasional disagreements.

QF are in no rush to make a decision on its 737 replacement. It has said it will start talking to the OEMs this year but it really doesn't need the planes for another 4 or 5 years so it has 2 years to come to a final decision. They will want to take their time because the market is currently so disrupted, any forecasts are a long way from being scientific.

The NMA is vaporware and it may never happen. It has never even got to a clear concept. Is it a LR narrowbody (replacement 757), a short range widebody (replacing 767s etc) or a long range widebody but under the size of the 788? No one really knows; even Boeing has many paper concepts but that is all. What is certain is that if or when Boeing do launch the NMA, it will run late so deliveries within the next decade are unlikely. Building a fleet plan around the NMA currently is meaningless.

I doubt JQ has a use for the 788s going forward. As many have discovered before them, the longer the route, the harder it is for LCCs to beat out legacy mainline carriers. When international reopens, the only int'l routes JQ will fly will be DPS, NAN and NZ. HKT, HNL etc won't return so there is no longer a pressing need for 'the 787s and the A321LRs and A320s will be able to do all that is needed. There is zero market for the 788s to be remarketed into so QF have to do something with them. The least-worse option is using these birds as replacements for the oldest A332s on domestic services. With "The Business" no longer a competitor, there is even an argument to leave the existing recliners in J class and throttle back on the domestic J class overkill.
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soyuz
Posts: 98
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:35 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:08 am

tullamarine wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
aschachter wrote:

If would definitely have cost savings, but making a large number of staff redundant to bring in lower cost employees on the Golden Triangle, wouldn't be popular with unions or the general public. Also having QLink A320s compared to Mainline Aircraft would be a differentiation that QF probably wouldn't want to do.

It will be an interesting competition when it happens and once again like the 777x Vs A350 competition, it will be Boeing's to lose. I think it will be more than likely 737 Maxs, together with whatever the NMA becomes, as QF are definitely interested in the NMA for the Golden Triangle and also Perth Flights rather than lugging A330s and 787s (already said to be too heavy for Domestic) on the occasional services


The known unknown here is whether Jetstar need 100 NEOs during the intermediate future? If not then reallocating part of the existing order (with a top-up as necessary) is the sensible choice. If Jetstar do take the entire order then I think Qantas will order MAX. Boeing will be very keen to do a deal, and minimising capex will be Qantas’ priority. By the time of delivery in 2024 most of the general public will have forgotten about the MAX debacle which would have been 6-7 years earlier.

As for the NMA, this aircraft is still a blank sheet of paper. EIS before 2030 seems very unlikely now, and I don’t think any airline is going to plan their future fleet around it (IMHO even Delta and United have either given up or soon will). Although it does involve carrying around excess weight on short sectors, I would not be at all surprised to see the 12 Jetstar 788s be repurposed as the “domestic” widebody fleet. They are already owned, and therefore have baked in capex savings.

Once again, we are in agreement, which in some respects is a bit of a worry; I enjoyed our occasional disagreements.

QF are in no rush to make a decision on its 737 replacement. It has said it will start talking to the OEMs this year but it really doesn't need the planes for another 4 or 5 years so it has 2 years to come to a final decision. They will want to take their time because the market is currently so disrupted, any forecasts are a long way from being scientific.

The NMA is vaporware and it may never happen. It has never even got to a clear concept. Is it a LR narrowbody (replacement 757), a short range widebody (replacing 767s etc) or a long range widebody but under the size of the 788? No one really knows; even Boeing has many paper concepts but that is all. What is certain is that if or when Boeing do launch the NMA, it will run late so deliveries within the next decade are unlikely. Building a fleet plan around the NMA currently is meaningless.

I doubt JQ has a use for the 788s going forward. As many have discovered before them, the longer the route, the harder it is for LCCs to beat out legacy mainline carriers. When international reopens, the only int'l routes JQ will fly will be DPS, NAN and NZ. HKT, HNL etc won't return so there is no longer a pressing need for 'the 787s and the A321LRs and A320s will be able to do all that is needed. There is zero market for the 788s to be remarketed into so QF have to do something with them. The least-worse option is using these birds as replacements for the oldest A332s on domestic services. With "The Business" no longer a competitor, there is even an argument to leave the existing recliners in J class and throttle back on the domestic J class overkill.


But the overkill is soooo nice! On one hand I agree with your last statement. Who needs a bed for a one hour hop MEL-SYD? On the other I feel there’s nothing better than that lovely wide lie flat bed on the Perth to east coast red-eyes or even the day flights from east to west, which take an hour longer due to headwinds.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:09 am

I don’t have any good words to describe this clown...

For those counting on the aviation sector to recover this will only further delay it...


Victoria's coronavirus state of emergency powers to be extended until December 16

Victoria's state of emergency will be extended for another nine months, after the state government secured crucial crossbench votes in the Upper House.


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc ... e/13206694


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aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:35 am

DavidByrne wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
...but that is the future. Covid will not go away entirely; it will circulate for years to come. None of the existing vaccines stop the vaccinated person acquiring Covid and it is likely they may still be able to pass it on. What all the vaccines do well is stop it turning into a serious illness causing hospitalisation and death. It will continue to circulate in the community but hopefully it will be largely asymptomatic for most people or similar to a heavy cold at worst. If you want to keep infections at zero, you are asking for the current level of restrictions to continue indefinitely. I don't think that is a tenable position.

I acknowledge your argument (though I don't know whether it's yet been properly established just how infectious vaccinated people could be).

However, I don't think we can summarily dismiss vaccinated people who do get covid (and many may, on the basis of what we know) with "hopeful" predictions that it may be no worse than a cold.

The problem is that no government can tolerate the risks that their unvaccinated 30% or whatever may create an ongoing public health issue in which covid runs riot. And if the source of those infections can be traced to visitors it will be hard for governments not to reimpose travel or border restrictions of some sort.

It's a serious conundrum. I think that the revival of the tourist sector will be strongly influenced by the level of public confidence that individuals both in Aus/NZ and in our target visitor markets have about the likelihood of becoming infected during their trip. I'm picking that for many people it may be some while before they consider the risks of travel to be acceptable.

Given the vaccine may be no guarantee against infection, those who expect QF's and NZ's long-haul operations to bounce quickly back may also be very disappointed.


Yeah so people are going to have to start loosening the clutch on their pearls.

Using infections numbers as an indicator of success (or failure) is going to become moot as the vast majority of the population become protected from serious illness caused by COVID. Hospitalisations will become the new measure. And get this.... the world is going to move on. It's busting to move on. So to keep the entire country closed off is only going to be tolerable for the population for a short while longer.

We were originally told - promptly forgotten by most, it seems - that lockdowns were needed to buy time to ready our hospitals to manage the onslaught (remember the ventilator rush?). Then our risk tolerance diminished with the largely politically motivated cries of terror by the state and territory premiers, mixed with a healthy dose of incompetence (Dan Andrews). Don't believe me? It was led by those facing elections in the next 18 months and incumbent governments in a crisis have been soundly returned to power (NT, QLD, ACT, New Zealand and soon, WA) - people don't like uncertainty on top of uncertainty. And premiers using the incongruous argument that it was out of their hands and the border closures are up to their Chief Medical Officers. Man how easily did we swallow that one?

So our domestic aviation sector was unnecessarily knifed. The reasons kept changing. Now because some are longing to cling to this zero tolerance approach, we're facing a prolonged and unnecessarily drawn out border loosening, maximising the damage to international aviation. Even if zero tolerance once had merit, in a vaccinated world, that tolerance has to change and the measures of success along with it. Lockdowns weren't enough. Closed national borders weren't enough. Vaccinations aren't enough. I suspect, David, total and absolute eradication would only just satisfy you.

Meanwhile, in Virgin Australia news, they released their Thursday sales with an intriguing new twice daily offering on SYD-CBR using 737-700s from (I think) 26 April. Good to see some competitive pressure back on this route.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:42 am

^ Tullamarine

While I agree QF might try and ditch the suite for domestic business, I don't think even they would be stupid enough to go back to 2x3x2 given the reaction when the took the 330s in that config.
 
brucetiki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:19 pm

I noticed that on some of the video TR’s for Rex’s inaugural flights they’ve removed the headrests on the back half of the plane (while keeping VA’s colour scheme on the seats).

Is this a sign that down the track Rex will be trying to do a one size fits all approach (LCC style service down the back, full service economy down the front, and business at the pointy end).
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Fuling
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:54 pm

Going on from last months thread, it looks like QF's BNE-NRT will be switching to HND from October, operating 3x weekly (with MEL-HND 4x weekly). Hopefully QF gets VA's slot and that sticks around when things start to recover! :crossfingers:
 
Toenga
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:36 pm

I think Australia, and NZ, will wait for the remainder of this year at least before any major departure from their present strategy.
We have got to our enviable positions by observing what worked, and probably more importantly, what didn't, in the rest of the world,
This will continue, as countries now end up with a higher and higher proportions of their populations, vaccinated, and effects of this can be observed. This will give us the opportunity to modify our present strategies on the basis of observed evidence, rather then just wishful thinking in the meantime.
 
Toenga
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:40 pm

I think Australia, and NZ, will wait for the remainder of this year at least before any major departure from their present strategy.
We have got to our enviable positions by observing what worked, and probably more importantly, what didn't, in the rest of the world,
This will continue, as countries now end up with a higher and higher proportions of their populations, vaccinated, and effects of this can be observed. This will give us the opportunity to modify our present strategies on the basis of observed evidence, rather then just wishful thinking in the meant
 
Kent350787
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:37 am

I agree that it will be 2022 before we have noticeably freer international travel.

But surely we can get a south Pacific bubble going before then? A bubble, even with occasional community cases in the participating states could help us with building greater ceratinty for a wider reopening.

I've been at SYD a few times in the last week, and it's been fantastic to see parallel runway ops and multiple aircraft moving along taxiways simultaneously. National Cabinet still seems to be fluffing things, but surely ongoing safe movement nationally should be a key point for agreement.
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 3:13 am

Kent350787 wrote:
I agree that it will be 2022 before we have noticeably freer international travel.

But surely we can get a south Pacific bubble going before then? A bubble, even with occasional community cases in the participating states could help us with building greater ceratinty for a wider reopening.

I've been at SYD a few times in the last week, and it's been fantastic to see parallel runway ops and multiple aircraft moving along taxiways simultaneously. National Cabinet still seems to be fluffing things, but surely ongoing safe movement nationally should be a key point for agreement.

It is likely that there will be some quarantine int'l travel in Q4. Likely initial candidates will be green flights (no transit passengers, only vaccinated passengers and must have been in departing country or Australia for previous 14 days) from places such as Fiji and Singapore. NZ is also possible though they seem to be keen to keep cases to zero which probably means they won't allow quarantine-free arrivals until something, I don't know what, changes.

From there it is likely that Europe and US will open probably around this time next year. By then, we should have all of the adult population vaccinated and children also (if decided that is appropriate by authorities). We can expect some community transmission at this time but the vaccines should mean the spread is limited and risk of hospitalisation or death is basically eliminated.
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bunumuring
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 5:04 am

Hey guys,
I’m doing a day trip to Melbourne from Sydney shortly just to support Rex and get an ‘aviation day’ in at MEL and surrounds. I wish them all the best but agree with others up-thread that the Impulse narrative looks scarily familiar. Go Rex, go! Find your niche and flourish!
Anyway, all the ballyhoo over coronavirus is curious. I was diagnosed with it over a year ago. How many of the highly opinionated a.netters here have the perspective on it that I have? Wonder how experiencing it first hand would impact their viewpoints and opinions....
Take care,
Bununuring
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Deano969
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:28 am

I don't think Impulse were ever in the same league as REX
Smaller fleet, smaller planes and smaller network to begin with, so not nearly as much behind them....
 
Toenga
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:40 am

tullamarine wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
I agree that it will be 2022 before we have noticeably freer international travel.

But surely we can get a south Pacific bubble going before then? A bubble, even with occasional community cases in the participating states could help us with building greater ceratinty for a wider reopening.

I've been at SYD a few times in the last week, and it's been fantastic to see parallel runway ops and multiple aircraft moving along taxiways simultaneously. National Cabinet still seems to be fluffing things, but surely ongoing safe movement nationally should be a key point for agreement.

It is likely that there will be some quarantine int'l travel in Q4. Likely initial candidates will be green flights (no transit passengers, only vaccinated passengers and must have been in departing country or Australia for previous 14 days) from places such as Fiji and Singapore. NZ is also possible though they seem to be keen to keep cases to zero which probably means they won't allow quarantine-free arrivals until something, I don't know what, changes.

From there it is likely that Europe and US will open probably around this time next year. By then, we should have all of the adult population vaccinated and children also (if decided that is appropriate by authorities). We can expect some community transmission at this time but the vaccines should mean the spread is limited and risk of hospitalisation or death is basically eliminated.

I don't think the NZ approach is actually zero cases. Just a common approach to determining when an outbreak is of concern. Like a a definition of hotspot that is accepted by all relevant jurisdictions, Australian States, Federal, and NZ.
Some agreement on boundary controls of hot spots, and repatriation of people wrong sided either in or out of hot spots.
There seems to be some difficulty of the Australian Federal government engaging in such detail with even Australian States, let alone NZ.
 
TN486T
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:11 am

^I dont think you can compare REX with Impulse. Arguably it could be said that Impulse had such an effect (along with Virgin Blue) that caused a massive change on domestic aviation in Australia. e,g It was the vehicle that allowed the commencement of Jetstar, and cemented QF group domestic domination, and helped with the demise of Ansett., I for one cant see REX mainline operating profitably. History says it wont, and I expect it will go the same way as others, it will run out of money. It could hasten a possible SQ operation into Australia (tongue in cheek).
On another note, a little bit of history relevant to QF ops Australia to the UK via Hong Kong (which ceased Dec 72 if memory serves me correctly). I could check date of cessation but I am feeling lazy tonight!! QF 755 outbound to the UK had its first port of call Port Moresby(POM). Full details: Route was SYD, POM, MNL, HKG, DEL, THR, ROM, LON, QF 755 Dep SYD Wed 1230 Arr LON Thu 1100. There was no inbound port of call to POM from the UK. Ac was a 707. Cheers
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:59 am

TN486T wrote:
^I dont think you can compare REX with Impulse. Arguably it could be said that Impulse had such an effect (along with Virgin Blue) that caused a massive change on domestic aviation in Australia. e,g It was the vehicle that allowed the commencement of Jetstar, and cemented QF group domestic domination, and helped with the demise of Ansett., I for one cant see REX mainline operating profitably. History says it wont, and I expect it will go the same way as others, it will run out of money. It could hasten a possible SQ operation into Australia (tongue in cheek).
On another note, a little bit of history relevant to QF ops Australia to the UK via Hong Kong (which ceased Dec 72 if memory serves me correctly). I could check date of cessation but I am feeling lazy tonight!! QF 755 outbound to the UK had its first port of call Port Moresby(POM). Full details: Route was SYD, POM, MNL, HKG, DEL, THR, ROM, LON, QF 755 Dep SYD Wed 1230 Arr LON Thu 1100. There was no inbound port of call to POM from the UK. Ac was a 707. Cheers

Agree the cash will eventually run out but have read apparently Asia Pacific firm PAG have invested $150million into REX domestic triangle offshoot adventure.

This explains the unusual registration VH-PAG.


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A350OZ
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:05 pm

TN486T wrote:
On another note, a little bit of history relevant to QF ops Australia to the UK via Hong Kong (which ceased Dec 72 if memory serves me correctly). I could check date of cessation but I am feeling lazy tonight!!


Last QF service to UK via Hong Kong was QF29/30 MEL-HKG-LHR vv. aboard a B747-400. Ceased 25 March 2012.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:18 pm

A350OZ wrote:
TN486T wrote:
On another note, a little bit of history relevant to QF ops Australia to the UK via Hong Kong (which ceased Dec 72 if memory serves me correctly). I could check date of cessation but I am feeling lazy tonight!!


Last QF service to UK via Hong Kong was QF29/30 MEL-HKG-LHR vv. aboard a B747-400. Ceased 25 March 2012.


TN486T ment that the QF multi stop, B707 service to the UK ceased in 1972, which is correct, within a year or two.

Gemuser
 
Qantas59
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:25 pm

In the 1 Jan 1972 Qantas timetable, QF757 (Th) operated SYD-BNE-MNL-HKG-DEL-THR-VIE-AMS-LHR,
QF761 (Sa) operated SYD-MNL-HKG-DEL-THR-ATH-AMS-LHR. Both utilizing V-jet 338s of course.
Next Qantas timetable that I have is effective 4 Mar 1973 and HKG is not included on the Kangaroo Route.
Also FWIW looks like HKG was not included on the Kangaroo Route in the QF August, 1963 timetable and was included in the July, 1965 timetable.
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:40 am

So it turns out that one of Jayne Hrdlicka’s new hires for the Virgin Australia executive team, who was CEO ofJetstar Japan and has now been tapped to be CEO of the Velocity frequent flyer arm, was also in line to take up a senior exec role at Qantas Loyalty which is of course the parent of Qantas Frequent Flyer, and as part of that, Qantas had shared a lot of confidential details about the business with him, and now the airline is looking to get legal over concerns he has taken that insider info to Virgin.

https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... 308-p578q9
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:59 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
So it turns out that one of Jayne Hrdlicka’s new hires for the Virgin Australia executive team, who was CEO ofJetstar Japan and has now been tapped to be CEO of the Velocity frequent flyer arm, was also in line to take up a senior exec role at Qantas Loyalty which is of course the parent of Qantas Frequent Flyer, and as part of that, Qantas had shared a lot of confidential details about the business with him, and now the airline is looking to get legal over concerns he has taken that insider info to Virgin.

https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... 308-p578q9

Golly, he may take knowledge of another rip-off insurance option. Seriously, he wasn’t the boss of Loyalty, he was the prospective boss of Loyalty so his knowledge of the business was limited at best.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:30 am

tullamarine wrote:
I doubt JQ has a use for the 788s going forward. As many have discovered before them, the longer the route, the harder it is for LCCs to beat out legacy mainline carriers. When international reopens, the only int'l routes JQ will fly will be DPS, NAN and NZ. HKT, HNL etc won't return so there is no longer a pressing need for 'the 787s and the A321LRs and A320s will be able to do all that is needed. There is zero market for the 788s to be remarketed into so QF have to do something with them. The least-worse option is using these birds as replacements for the oldest A332s on domestic services. With "The Business" no longer a competitor, there is even an argument to leave the existing recliners in J class and throttle back on the domestic J class overkill.


JQ will have a use for the 787s. As soon as borders open I reckon we will see some interesting routes based on the borders that are open... ie Singapore could be back... Taiwain etc
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:56 am

I tend to agree that some of the destination SE Asian routes may be more popular.

Less so Bali/Indonesia.

But Thailand, Taiwan and Japan also have pretty good Covid records.
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:45 am

moa999 wrote:
I tend to agree that some of the destination SE Asian routes may be more popular.

Less so Bali/Indonesia.

But Thailand, Taiwan and Japan also have pretty good Covid records.


If travel to those 3 countries is opened up early on, JQ would have no problems filling up their 787's. Remember that Japan was talked about as a 'bubble' country last year.. Travel to Bali would probably only open up at the same time as Europe & the US.
 
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EK413
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Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:10 pm

melpax wrote:
moa999 wrote:
I tend to agree that some of the destination SE Asian routes may be more popular.

Less so Bali/Indonesia.

But Thailand, Taiwan and Japan also have pretty good Covid records.


If travel to those 3 countries is opened up early on, JQ would have no problems filling up their 787's. Remember that Japan was talked about as a 'bubble' country last year.. Travel to Bali would probably only open up at the same time as Europe & the US.

Not according to Indonesia which are drawing up a plan to reopen to vaccinated tourists and return a negative COVID test...

Vaccinated tourists could be welcomed back to Bali as coronavirus threatens the island's economy

Indonesia is drawing up a plan that could allow foreign tourists to return to Bali within months if they have been vaccinated against COVID-19 and return a negative test on arrival.

Key points:
•Bali has recorded more than 34,000 COVID-19 infections
•Local authorities want Bali to be prioritised in Indonesia's vaccine rollout
•The island's economy, which depends on tourism, has suffered due to the pandemic

The central government in Jakarta is debating how to establish a "COVID-free corridor" for tourists from key countries to visit select areas of Bali, including Nusa Dua on the southern tip of the island.
Indonesia's Tourism Minister Sandiaga Uno said Australia was one of several countries that he hoped could be included, along with China, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc ... e/13207052


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moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:01 am

Indonesia may be keen, but until they get Covid under control, I expect other countries may not be so keen to let there citizens travel to a hotspot.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:41 am

Qantas to operate a repatriation flight to YVR on 23 March (SYD-YVR), will operate YVR-DRW on the the 25th

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 97319?s=21
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:45 am

Qantas adds seasonal flights

BNE-ABX, 3 weekly
SYD-OOM 3 weekly
BNE-OOM 2 weekly

Q400 operating all services

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... bury-cooma
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:20 am

Looks like Qantas has finally pulled the plug on NRT with post-Oct31 flights from SYD, MEL and BNE all bound for HND. Seems like Qantas split its daily HND slot allocation between MEL at 4x and BNE at 3x. Creative and clever, and with Virgin not having any long-haul jets maybe Qantas plans to apply for Virgin’s HND slot once demand to Tokyo rebuilds to beyond what that MEL/BNE split can support.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... hts-haneda
 
Kent350787
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 5:16 am

It's an interesting situation, with MEL-NRT on JL (if it restarts) the only flight from Australia to Tokyo scheduled to head to NRT rather than HND. It doesn't help for onward international connections, but is better for travel to Tokyo itself.
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DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 6:31 am

Are VA's HND slots actually within the gift of the Australian authorities, or does the decision power rest with Japan? Sure, the route allocation was granted by the Aus authorities after international negotiations allowed an increase, but does this extend also to the slots themselves?
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qf2048
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 6:55 am

Did a quick search on Flight Centre today for flights between SYD - CFS in April. Showing 3 REX flights in the mix. Haven't heard any announcements on that one.
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:17 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Are VA's HND slots actually within the gift of the Australian authorities, or does the decision power rest with Japan? Sure, the route allocation was granted by the Aus authorities after international negotiations allowed an increase, but does this extend also to the slots themselves?

The Australian Government allocate the slots through the IASC. I don't believe they are available for reallocation yet though because there was an extension given to both airlines as they were unable to commence flights due to the pandemic.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Pcoder
Posts: 172
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:44 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:11 am

tullamarine wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Are VA's HND slots actually within the gift of the Australian authorities, or does the decision power rest with Japan? Sure, the route allocation was granted by the Aus authorities after international negotiations allowed an increase, but does this extend also to the slots themselves?

The Australian Government allocate the slots through the IASC. I don't believe they are available for reallocation yet though because there was an extension given to both airlines as they were unable to commence flights due to the pandemic.


When regular service restarts, i'd imagine the countdown timer will start of VAs slots, to either use them or lose them. Depending on what the IASC allows, i'd imagine any restart by VA would preferably done as a wet lease using an NH plane.

I think it is very much in the interest of NH to keep QF/JL out of a virtual monopoly in the Australia/Haneda slots, so will be there assist VA so that QF/JL don't get such a large foothold.
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 834
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:28 am

EK413 wrote:
I don’t have any good words to describe this clown...

For those counting on the aviation sector to recover this will only further delay it...


Victoria's coronavirus state of emergency powers to be extended until December 16

Victoria's state of emergency will be extended for another nine months, after the state government secured crucial crossbench votes in the Upper House.


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc ... e/13206694


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well this is Victoria!!!
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3421
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:35 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
EK413 wrote:
I don’t have any good words to describe this clown...

For those counting on the aviation sector to recover this will only further delay it...


Victoria's coronavirus state of emergency powers to be extended until December 16

Victoria's state of emergency will be extended for another nine months, after the state government secured crucial crossbench votes in the Upper House.


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc ... e/13206694


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well this is Victoria!!!


It’s just a legal mechanism that is required to enforce any restrictions that may be needed. This thing isn’t over, so having something in place is important.

Outbreaks can happen from across the country afterall, so whether we like it or not, it’s the likely go to plan to close borders and enact restrictions by govts.

Still quite some time to go until there is significant confidence in the travel market.
 
aschachter
Posts: 74
Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:37 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:28 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
EK413 wrote:
I don’t have any good words to describe this clown...

For those counting on the aviation sector to recover this will only further delay it...


Victoria's coronavirus state of emergency powers to be extended until December 16

Victoria's state of emergency will be extended for another nine months, after the state government secured crucial crossbench votes in the Upper House.


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc ... e/13206694


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well this is Victoria!!!


It’s just a legal mechanism that is required to enforce any restrictions that may be needed. This thing isn’t over, so having something in place is important.

Outbreaks can happen from across the country afterall, so whether we like it or not, it’s the likely go to plan to close borders and enact restrictions by govts.

Still quite some time to go until there is significant confidence in the travel market.


Totally agree with you, this is where the Chief Health Officer of Victoria gets most of their power and where tools such as Hotel Quarantine, Mask Mandates and Border Permits are made available...

I seem to remember that Victoria is the only state that actually renews its' State of Emergency in Parliament , where the other states don't require a Parliament Vote to extend theirs....

But it doesn't stop people coming to Victoria or people travelling from Victoria
 
DeltaB717
Posts: 1730
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 3:49 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:56 pm

tullamarine wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Are VA's HND slots actually within the gift of the Australian authorities, or does the decision power rest with Japan? Sure, the route allocation was granted by the Aus authorities after international negotiations allowed an increase, but does this extend also to the slots themselves?

The Australian Government allocate the slots through the IASC. I don't believe they are available for reallocation yet though because there was an extension given to both airlines as they were unable to commence flights due to the pandemic.


No, the IASC allocates traffic rights. Only the designated slot coordinator for HND can allocate arrival and departure slots for that airport. Traffic rights are useless without the slots, and the slots are useless without the traffic rights. In theory, and in normal circumstances, VA would need to relinquish both or have them removed for non-performance - in the reality of the current situation, it's unlikely VA can mount an argument to retain their traffic rights beyond any COVID-related grace periods (given one of the IASC criteria requires a carrier to be able to operate the traffic rights) so in all likelihood if QF asks for them to be reallocated the IASC won't have much choice.
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