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New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:46 pm

Welcome to the New Zealand Aviation Thread March 2021.

Please continue to post your updates and your discussion here.

Link to previous thread:

New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2021
 
continental004
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:47 pm

With Auckland under lockdown this week, how is domestic air travel affected? Are there any restrictions on domestic travel to/from the Auckland Region?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:39 pm

continental004 wrote:
With Auckland under lockdown this week, how is domestic air travel affected? Are there any restrictions on domestic travel to/from the Auckland Region?

Significantly. Effectively you can only travel in and out of Auckland for the purpose of returning home, or for essential travel. More detail: https://covid19.govt.nz/travel-and-the- ... oundaries/ and https://covid19.govt.nz/travel-and-the- ... oundaries/

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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:02 pm

Heard on the radio on Saturday that some travel agents were selling Cook Island packages for the upcoming school holidays in preparation for a travel bubble by the end of this month.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/ ... ZIM4IJPYA/

Wonder how quickly Mike Pero could get his airline up and running
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:30 pm

777ER wrote:
Heard on the radio on Saturday that some travel agents were selling Cook Island packages for the upcoming school holidays in preparation for a travel bubble by the end of this month.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/ ... ZIM4IJPYA/

Wonder how quickly Mike Pero could get his airline up and running


I'd say it's risky business in this market - wouldn't you? So many variables at play. But for sure an opportunity.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:19 pm

777ER wrote:
Heard on the radio on Saturday that some travel agents were selling Cook Island packages for the upcoming school holidays in preparation for a travel bubble by the end of this month.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/ ... ZIM4IJPYA/

Wonder how quickly Mike Pero could get his airline up and running


I don't see this latest "lockdown" changing much, it's essentially an extension of the LSG leak due to.. well, we all know what.

Let's forge on with more vaccinations, let the Cooks tick off the last outstanding requirement and fingers crossed in a few weeks we'll be at level 1 and a Cook Islands bubble will get underway.

Mike Pero is mad. That's all I can say. I think a single lockdown or bubble closure will end his airline.

Not just that but NZ has millions tied up in credits, strong relationships with agents, an NZ wide network and ample of resources to ramp up and fill up the Cook Islands.. and that's without JQ who could also jump in on the party should they want.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:09 am

continental004 wrote:
With Auckland under lockdown this week, how is domestic air travel affected? Are there any restrictions on domestic travel to/from the Auckland Region?


Tomorrow there is only 3x AKL-WLG service, last week when looking at booking an flight for this week it was 20x an day. AKL-ZQN normally 8-10 an day is down to daily.

Not as bad as back in August during lockdown 2.0 when some days AKL-WLG saw an single ATR service. This route is normally only an mix of 320/321s.....

We will see if JQ sticks around post lockdown 4.0.
 
dhaliwal
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:57 am

https://simpleflying.com/air-new-zealand-boeing-777-retirement/

I thought the 300ER were pretty new and very good for what they do.

Such a shame that they would most likely be retired too. They are such beasts. Flying the dreamliner just doesnt feel the same.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:08 pm

dhaliwal wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/air-new-zealand-boeing-777-retirement/

I thought the 300ER were pretty new and very good for what they do.

Such a shame that they would most likely be retired too. They are such beasts. Flying the dreamliner just doesnt feel the same.

The -200ERs are goners for sure. The -300ERs though I would put money on them being retained until at least 2015 (caveat that 1 leased one might go).
Quite simply losing 8x 777 is a huge reduction in capacity. Unless NZ can grab a bunch of 787-10 quickly and cheaply there simply isn’t the ability to operate semi-normal operations with the 787 fleet only.
Dropping LHR and EZE frees up about 3.5x aircraft and reduced frequencies elsewhere helps too.

Of course if Covid takes another turn or there’s another black swan event then that changes things.

I do expect the 777W fleet to be retired before 2030 though.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:41 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
The -200ERs are goners for sure. The -300ERs though I would put money on them being retained until at least 2015 (caveat that 1 leased one might go).
Quite simply losing 8x 777 is a huge reduction in capacity. Unless NZ can grab a bunch of 787-10 quickly and cheaply there simply isn’t the ability to operate semi-normal operations with the 787 fleet only.
Dropping LHR and EZE frees up about 3.5x aircraft and reduced frequencies elsewhere helps too.

Of course if Covid takes another turn or there’s another black swan event then that changes things.

I do expect the 777W fleet to be retired before 2030 though.

I think that the existing fleet of 14 789s plus the eight 789/781s that are on order will be more than sufficient to operate the likely long-haul route network for the foreseeable future, and that any additional flying may be done with retained 77Ws. This adds up to 29 aircraft in total by the mid-2020s, the same number of long-haul aircraft that were in the fleet in early 2020.

In fact, I doubt the 77Ws will be needed at all, given that it's by no means certain that traffic will rebound quickly to pre-pandemic levels. QF, for example, is basing its long-haul ops (not counting Asian regional services) on just 11 789s for the immediate future, and has "no plans" to take delivery of the remaining three aircraft on order (and already constructed, I understand). This should give a bit of a reality check as to what the airlines themselves think about the future level of passenger traffic - that in their minds "semi-normal" operations will entail a significant reduction in frequencies (and also routes, though hopefully LAX-LHR and AKL-EZE are the only cuts to be made by NZ).
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:02 am

Before we all write a farewell cards to the 77W, read the transcript and place it in perspective.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... script.pdf

This slide shows a couple of key points, being that we have both short-term and long-term levers that we can pull with regards to our fleet should demand return more slowly than anticipated. In the short-term we have the option to exit a portion of our 777-300 fleet. In the longer-term we have the opportunity to push out the delivery of both the new 787 Dreamliners and the A321NEOs


So in short, it's a leaver which can be used before the end of Q2 FY22, (which is 31 December 2021).

It's a leaver they may pull if demand returns more slowly than anticipated so isn't set in stone. Fingers crossed, we start to see some promising signs of recovery here and offshore in the second half of this calendar year.

Post COVID we'll see no EZE, LAX-LHR (which was going anyway) and a reduction in services all over the network. The 772's not returning absorb a lot of this, but in 2024 the next wave of 787's start to arrive.

Essentially and put simply, the airline is trying to predict if there'll be demand at this point to grow capacity or will the incoming aircraft play out as a partial 77W replacement and not the full 772 replacements as planned.

The fleet at this point will likely already be under utilized as it is let alone adding more equipment into the operation.

Hopefully, options taken at a later point well beyond COVID to see a fleet of 30+ once again.

I can foresee a fleet reduction to 5 frames, with a options taken in two orders to eventually replace all with the 787.

Oh, how I wish they went A350 now.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:28 am

A few thoughts from the Interim Results Presentation:

Image

The domestic recovery looks to be strong. Having a (near) monopoly in one of the best recovered domestic markets in the world certainly puts Air New Zealand in a good place compared to many others.

I couldn't see anything about it in this presentation, but I remember that in one of their releases in early july last year they mentioned that domestic business travel was at 60%, which I took to be encouraging.

Image

Do we know which aircraft are domestic config and which are international config?

Unrelated, does anyone know what the dates of Air New Zealand's last services to Chicago, Houston, Buenos Aires and Vancouver were? and which registration operated them?

NZ6 wrote:
Mike Pero is mad. That's all I can say. I think a single lockdown or bubble closure will end his airline.


Not just that but Air New Zealand has plenty of spare A320s to launch CHC-RAR with. Which I'm sure they would if a bubble was opened.

NZ6 wrote:
Not just that but NZ has millions tied up in credits, strong relationships with agents, an NZ wide network and ample of resources to ramp up and fill up the Cook Islands.. and that's without JQ who could also jump in on the party should they want.


Good point.

NZ6 wrote:
Oh, how I wish they went A350 now.


+1
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zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:36 am

zkojq wrote:
A few thoughts from the Interim Results Presentation:

Image

The domestic recovery looks to be strong. Having a (near) monopoly in one of the best recovered domestic markets in the world certainly puts Air New Zealand in a good place compared to many others.


Domestic was going great, with AKL-CHC/WLG all set to return up to 20x daily. Along with the additional a321NEO services at peak periods. This was meant to happen at the start of March, and would of taken them to near pre-covid levels.

Until the Auckland wall was put backup last weekend, would of had an devastating effect on the entire tourism industry in New Zealand.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:13 pm

Just further to the SimpleFlying article above and the comments made by Jedd McDowell.

I'm now of the understanding, the "revised" lower end forecast of the recovery sees some of the 77W's remaining in the desert for some considerable time post the border reopening (not a huge surprise). This however now starts to overlaps or align with the arrival of the new 787's in FY24 (July 2023 onwards). This being 27+ months away from now. Less, 9-12 months before long-haul really resumes, so really only an 18+month recovery window *. Which is very short.

How it'll likely play out..

The frames in AKL will be used first when the need arises, the rest remain in long term storage.

If we were to look at the recovery as a line on a graph overtime. When the line reaches a point where the network requires additional frames from the desert a 787 will be on it's way...

In principal, given the 787 will be entering the fleet (long term plan, financial/contractual commitment etc) - this frame take on the demand from the recovery curve and therefore push the re-entry into service for a 77W back.

Long term planning starts to see the back end of the reentry timeline overlap with the 777W replacement, let's not forget from 2026+ where OKM will be 16+ years old and due for replacement. If the forecasting and planning don't see the need for these aircraft before they were originally due for replacement, then it's cheaper to end leases, sell or scrap them on the books earlier rather than later.

Based on this, we will see 77W's flying again. Very likely not all.

* : This window is the start of FY24. Obviously it'll be during FY24 so add 1-12 months
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:37 pm

Another small side note.

I had a chat earlier in the week with an long time friend who's worked in outbound tourism most of his life. He's got "credible" information that a Trans Tasman bubble will only be looked at but will be seriously looked at once our vulnerable are vaccinated.... Which should be "well before the end of the 2nd Quarter".

I'm undecide how credible this is or if it's just speculation that's turned into "fact" somewhere along the line.

It does however make complete sense. Border and Front line medical need protecting first. Then protect those who will be effected the most incase something happens, that allows most risks to be taken.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:03 am

NZ6 wrote:
Another small side note.

I had a chat earlier in the week with an long time friend who's worked in outbound tourism most of his life. He's got "credible" information that a Trans Tasman bubble will only be looked at but will be seriously looked at once our vulnerable are vaccinated.... Which should be "well before the end of the 2nd Quarter".

I'm undecide how credible this is or if it's just speculation that's turned into "fact" somewhere along the line.

It does however make complete sense. Border and Front line medical need protecting first. Then protect those who will be effected the most incase something happens, that allows most risks to be taken.


Definitely an hard one, although I really don’t see the Q1 target happening at all. I think they should really just say by Q4, rather than constantly putting some hope out there that it s going to happen. If we can’t make RAR happen, there is no way we can have hope that Australia would happen.

I’m saying that how many cases have we had from Australia in the last 3 months? One would think it was near zero, and very low risk.

With arrivals from Australia currently taking up around 40% of MIQ spaces. Is it time we review how much risk Australia really is? Would it not be better focusing that resource in to looking after people coming back from risk countries?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:41 am

Just came across a Mount Cook Airline timetable from the 1980s.

Back then, there were regular flights into Te Anau, Mount Cook with HS748 (plus Alexandra, Milford Sound with Islanders). What is the reason that those flights disappeared? Has tourism in the area shifted away from high-end to more budget-oriented offerings so that people nowadays go by car and take a local sightseeing flight? In the 1970s/1980s, Mount Cook Airline appeared to be very busy with its aerial tours of New Zealand, but nowadays this concept seems to be limited to a weekly offering by thel ikes of Tauck.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:45 am

vfw614 wrote:
Just came across a Mount Cook Airline timetable from the 1980s.

Back then, there were regular flights into Te Anau, Mount Cook with HS748 (plus Alexandra, Milford Sound with Islanders). What is the reason that those flights disappeared? Has tourism in the area shifted away from high-end to more budget-oriented offerings so that people nowadays go by car and take a local sightseeing flight? In the 1970s/1980s, Mount Cook Airline appeared to be very busy with its aerial tours of New Zealand, but nowadays this concept seems to be limited to a weekly offering by thel ikes of Tauck.


Funny you should mention that - I was thinking about the same thing only the other day; with the exception of Te Anau service, perhaps quite a bit of what Mount Cook used to provide is now provided by smaller private service providers - e.g. Air Safaris.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:41 am

Why did the border discussion get deleted?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 3:19 am

Look at booking some WLG-AKL flights tomorrow, noticed that there is an ATR 72-600 service as NZ5402 departing at 8pm.

Very out of the norm to have an ATR on WLG-AKL.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:08 am

zkncj wrote:
Look at booking some WLG-AKL flights tomorrow, noticed that there is an ATR 72-600 service as NZ5402 departing at 8pm.

Very out of the norm to have an ATR on WLG-AKL.


Potentially hazard a guess, is using the ATR to bring more passengers who will go into managed isolation here in WLG. They did that frequently earlier this year and late last year also
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:32 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Look at booking some WLG-AKL flights tomorrow, noticed that there is an ATR 72-600 service as NZ5402 departing at 8pm.

Very out of the norm to have an ATR on WLG-AKL.


Potentially hazard a guess, is using the ATR to bring more passengers who will go into managed isolation here in WLG. They did that frequently earlier this year and late last year also


Take it would get deep cleaned in WLG then after that MIQ flight?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:34 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Look at booking some WLG-AKL flights tomorrow, noticed that there is an ATR 72-600 service as NZ5402 departing at 8pm.

Very out of the norm to have an ATR on WLG-AKL.


Potentially hazard a guess, is using the ATR to bring more passengers who will go into managed isolation here in WLG. They did that frequently earlier this year and late last year also

Nope. The charters moving pax into managed isolation positioned back empty. There’s also a AKL-WLG service on Sunday morning: NZ5447.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:32 pm

zkncj wrote:
Look at booking some WLG-AKL flights tomorrow, noticed that there is an ATR 72-600 service as NZ5402 departing at 8pm.

Very out of the norm to have an ATR on WLG-AKL.


It looks to be part of the Hokitika Wildfoods package that was on Grabaseat.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:50 pm

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-one-way-travel-bubble-from-niue-to-new-zealand-to-begin-this-month/SOV3TL4PE7CY2OBSX6EZ64W37E

From the 24 March 2021, New Zealand is set to open an ‘Oneway’ travel bubble with Niue.

Some progress, although still very limited progress so forget any ideas of an holiday in IUE.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:42 am

zkncj wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-one-way-travel-bubble-from-niue-to-new-zealand-to-begin-this-month/SOV3TL4PE7CY2OBSX6EZ64W37E

From the 24 March 2021, New Zealand is set to open an ‘Oneway’ travel bubble with Niue.

Some progress, although still very limited progress so forget any ideas of an holiday in IUE.


Does anyone know what's changed to allow this?

I mean it's been almost 12 months then randomly it's okay? Does anyone else find this strange?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:09 am

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-one-way-travel-bubble-from-niue-to-new-zealand-to-begin-this-month/SOV3TL4PE7CY2OBSX6EZ64W37E

From the 24 March 2021, New Zealand is set to open an ‘Oneway’ travel bubble with Niue.

Some progress, although still very limited progress so forget any ideas of an holiday in IUE.


Does anyone know what's changed to allow this?

I mean it's been almost 12 months then randomly it's okay? Does anyone else find this strange?

I assume a one-way bubble is the same as what already exists with Australia. A one-way bubble doesn't help; who wants to spend 2 weeks in quarantine after a 7 day holiday?
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:32 am

tullamarine wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-one-way-travel-bubble-from-niue-to-new-zealand-to-begin-this-month/SOV3TL4PE7CY2OBSX6EZ64W37E

From the 24 March 2021, New Zealand is set to open an ‘Oneway’ travel bubble with Niue.

Some progress, although still very limited progress so forget any ideas of an holiday in IUE.


Does anyone know what's changed to allow this?

I mean it's been almost 12 months then randomly it's okay? Does anyone else find this strange?

I assume a one-way bubble is the same as what already exists with Australia. A one-way bubble doesn't help; who wants to spend 2 weeks in quarantine after a 7 day holiday?


It's one way into NZ, like the Cook Islands. Similar to Australia but this is for inbound into NZ.

There's been calls for this for over half a year, It's always been declined.

Cook Islands got approved one-way into NZ in Jan, now this one.

What exactly has happened to allow this now? What triggered a green light after it's previously been declined.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:01 am

NZ6 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Does anyone know what's changed to allow this?

I mean it's been almost 12 months then randomly it's okay? Does anyone else find this strange?

I assume a one-way bubble is the same as what already exists with Australia. A one-way bubble doesn't help; who wants to spend 2 weeks in quarantine after a 7 day holiday?


It's one way into NZ, like the Cook Islands. Similar to Australia but this is for inbound into NZ.

There's been calls for this for over half a year, It's always been declined.

Cook Islands got approved one-way into NZ in Jan, now this one.

What exactly has happened to allow this now? What triggered a green light after it's previously been declined.

I’m not sure it’s that unexpected or out of the blue - it was always talked about in the same vein as the Cook Island, with the same justification of allowing people from the island, who are New Zealand citizens, to access services in New Zealand without needing to quarantine. From memory it was always said that the Cook Islands would be first followed by Niue. Why now as opposed to last week or next week? Your guess is as good as mine.

V/F
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DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:16 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I assume a one-way bubble is the same as what already exists with Australia. A one-way bubble doesn't help; who wants to spend 2 weeks in quarantine after a 7 day holiday?


It's one way into NZ, like the Cook Islands. Similar to Australia but this is for inbound into NZ.

There's been calls for this for over half a year, It's always been declined.

Cook Islands got approved one-way into NZ in Jan, now this one.

What exactly has happened to allow this now? What triggered a green light after it's previously been declined.

I’m not sure it’s that unexpected or out of the blue - it was always talked about in the same vein as the Cook Island, with the same justification of allowing people from the island, who are New Zealand citizens, to access services in New Zealand without needing to quarantine. From memory it was always said that the Cook Islands would be first followed by Niue. Why now as opposed to last week or next week? Your guess is as good as mine.

V/F

I’m picking it’s just that there’s now a greater level of confidence with respect to the virus. Nothing more or less.
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a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:24 pm

There has been a lot of work happening up in the Pacific Islands putting processes in place to deal with quarantine on return and what happens if a case occurs. I suspect the govts are now happy these situations can now be handled..
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:40 pm

Nice image of 3 NZ 787s enjoying the sun at LAX this week. 2 are freight services.

Image

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwPBhu3UUAM ... ame=medium
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:54 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

It's one way into NZ, like the Cook Islands. Similar to Australia but this is for inbound into NZ.

There's been calls for this for over half a year, It's always been declined.

Cook Islands got approved one-way into NZ in Jan, now this one.

What exactly has happened to allow this now? What triggered a green light after it's previously been declined.

I’m not sure it’s that unexpected or out of the blue - it was always talked about in the same vein as the Cook Island, with the same justification of allowing people from the island, who are New Zealand citizens, to access services in New Zealand without needing to quarantine. From memory it was always said that the Cook Islands would be first followed by Niue. Why now as opposed to last week or next week? Your guess is as good as mine.

V/F

I’m picking it’s just that there’s now a greater level of confidence with respect to the virus. Nothing more or less.


One could argue this, but we had 120 odd days community free last year. Then the Americold cluster in August, again months of nothing until Jan/Feb when we found two different Pullman cases in the community, Mid Feb we found 1x (likely) LSG case followed by another case which was related but also separated in ways.

We're seeing seemingly daily numbers of positive cases in MIQ (which is a good thing)

I'm just struggling to see how there's more "confidence" now vs last year.

I'm really lost scratching my head around what's been the blocking it previously and what's the situation now to allow it.

It seems on the outside like a result of pressure more than anything else. Especially on the back of a successful Cook Islands one-way bubble and a week long lock down with zero cases.

I'm genuinely curious to know where apatite has come from though. It might provide insights into more border easing (in the right areas)
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:58 pm

a7ala wrote:
There has been a lot of work happening up in the Pacific Islands putting processes in place to deal with quarantine on return and what happens if a case occurs. I suspect the govts are now happy these situations can now be handled..


Yeah that relates to NZ outbound into the Islands. There's been a lock of talk around RAR specifically. By memory the last remaining requirement was the negative pressure room? But things like tracer apps, contact tracing practices etc have all been stood up.

The situation with IUE is it's inbound to NZ only. Like RAR currently is.

Given IUE have NEVER seen a case of COVID. They have no other scheduled airlinks and only have a very small maritime port. One has to wonder how they pose any risk to NZ.

We do pose a risk to them. I agree to that. All be it a very small one.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:59 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Nice image of 3 NZ 787s enjoying the sun at LAX this week. 2 are freight services.

Image

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwPBhu3UUAM ... ame=medium


Absolutely beautiful!
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:58 pm

NZ6 wrote:

What exactly has happened to allow this now? What triggered a green light after it's previously been declined.


IUE and RAR are to buy some more time for the govt, had they done nothing they might well be staring down the barrel of popular opinion.
The media has started to report some less than favourable opinions about the PM and questions raised at the 13.00 party political broadcasts every day in light of the lack of border opening after PM Morrison raised his legitimate critique in front of the Australian media, More people I have talked to this week )re starting to be more sceptical in their opinions about the strategy and indeed their longterm motives(that previously thought had been good ) Another lockdown in Auckland will be dire for govt popularity, I would also say it is about more than NZ, the global scepticism is also raised everywhere after over a year of lockdowns, job losses, austerity and recessions and general loss of quality of life and individual rights. I think many have now realised that there is more to life than having that artificial illusion of safety - better have some risk and be free for the 99.4% chance of surviving covid if you contract it, and the vaccine for the high-risk individuals will reduce that last 0.6% quickly
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:07 pm

aerorobnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

What exactly has happened to allow this now? What triggered a green light after it's previously been declined.


IUE and RAR are to buy some more time for the govt, had they done nothing they might well be staring down the barrel of popular opinion.
The media has started to report some less than favourable opinions about the PM and questions raised at the 13.00 party political broadcasts every day in light of the lack of border opening after PM Morrison raised his legitimate critique in front of the Australian media, More people I have talked to this week )re starting to be more sceptical in their opinions about the strategy and indeed their longterm motives(that previously thought had been good ) Another lockdown in Auckland will be dire for govt popularity, I would also say it is about more than NZ, the global scepticism is also raised everywhere after over a year of lockdowns, job losses, austerity and recessions and general loss of quality of life and individual rights. I think many have now realised that there is more to life than having that artificial illusion of safety - better have some risk and be free for the 99.4% chance of surviving covid if you contract it, and the vaccine for the high-risk individuals will reduce that last 0.6% quickly


So are you suggesting it's completely a political move?

I'm left scratching my head with similar thoughts but I'm just not sure. Here's an example, I posted this earlier in the week but it's no longer here (unsure why). This suggests there's still strong public interest in a closed border however I also don't believe the question reveals the full truth either.

If I was asked this "Do you support NZ's continued 'closed border' policy for all but returning citizens (with some exceptions)?". I'd say yes. But I strongly believe we could have some Pacific and Tasman bubbles as well.
.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/23-02 ... der-rules/
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:55 pm

Great photo of the three NZ 787s at LAX. I long for the day when we again see two daily flights from AKL (and one from CHC???) sitting on the ramp there, every day. However I’m less sure that the US will be an attractive destination for NZers for a while yet, Biden’s very rapid vaccination programme notwithstanding.

But it’s not just a matter of 99.4% (or whatever) recovering from COVID and 0.6% dying. There are very serious long-term health implications for many “survivors”, including respiratory issues and kidney issues IIRC. And it’s not just the “disposable“ section of the community that’s at risk - many of the long term problems appear to be occurring in younger people.

When we talk about “accepting some risk” and opening our borders we tend to ignore the non-fatal consequences which result in a seriously compromised quality of life for many survivors.

So yes, I’m itching to travel ASAP - especially to some of the out-of-the-way destinations I love - but these are likely to be the least safe for quite a while. As for NZ, avgeeks’ views notwithstanding, I think it may be a long slow recovery. I know that QF thinks they can make do with just 11 (yes, just 11) 789s for their long-haul network in the medium term, and have no plans to take the remaining three on order for the moment - they’ll go into storage (presumably the desert). NZ’s fleet of 14 789s may be more than enough until the 787-10s start to arrive. And with the 77Ws also able to be put into service, I think the carrier is very comfortably placed.

What I’d like to see is some innovative routes begun when the borders start to reopen. AKL-HBA has pretty much been signalled from the Aussie side, and I’ll be on that like a shot to catch up with family in Tassie. But what about some other new routes - CBR for example, and WLG/CHC to RAR, WLG-OOL, and possibly even WLG-TBU/APW for the extensive VFR market. Elsewhere in the world there are a number of airlines poised to operate creative new routes. I hope NZ’s approach isn’t too conservative.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:34 pm

@DavidByrne I'm not even trying to look at the COVID risk side of things. I agree, Europe, America, Africa etc are all a long way away. There's still a serious health risk to New Zealand from these areas. I think many accept this as well and that's likely reflected in that survey.

But, apart from the Victorian outbreak mid last year COVID in NZ, AU and PI has largely been under control.

There's time for heathy debate on how long we stay the course with our current approach.

It very much seems like we're never going to be in a "better position" and we'll never see eye to eye on Australia who rightly has their own approach.

So what happens next, continue with no bubble until very late 2021 when we get near 70% vaccination on both sides or do we somehow accept both sides can manage mini outbreaks without mass lockdowns and the risk of outbreaks is being reduced with border force being vaccinated etc

It very much seems frustration in the public is growing and there's very little movement and desire to move forward.

- 30% of businesses in ZQN don't believe they'll last another 3 months.
- 40% MIQ is from Australia so will a) reduce cost, b) reduce risk/complexity or c) allow more Kiwis back
- We've only administered 18,000 out of 260,000 vaccine doses in the country *

* 36,000 I guess, as 18,000 will be waiting for time on their second.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:45 am

NZ6 wrote:
@DavidByrne I'm not even trying to look at the COVID risk side of things. I agree, Europe, America, Africa etc are all a long way away. There's still a serious health risk to New Zealand from these areas. I think many accept this as well and that's likely reflected in that survey.

But, apart from the Victorian outbreak mid last year COVID in NZ, AU and PI has largely been under control.

There's time for heathy debate on how long we stay the course with our current approach.

It very much seems like we're never going to be in a "better position" and we'll never see eye to eye on Australia who rightly has their own approach.

So what happens next, continue with no bubble until very late 2021 when we get near 70% vaccination on both sides or do we somehow accept both sides can manage mini outbreaks without mass lockdowns and the risk of outbreaks is being reduced with border force being vaccinated

Don’t disagree with any of that, though I’m personally sure that when large swathes of both Australia and NZ are vaccinated we will get our S Pacific bubble- and that will be long before “late 2021”.

I do think, though, that the avgeek and tourism business sector has a much higher (and perhaps self-interested) tolerance to (other people’s) risk of contracting Covid than the wider public. Notwithstanding that the risk is already very low, in my own peer group there’s much less willingness to open the borders until a vaccination programme is well under way and a substantial number have been vaccinated on both sides of the Tasman. Fortunately that won’t be so long now.

The trouble with “public debate” is that the subtleties and nuances of the issues under discussion get completely submerged in a black-and-white argument where only the extreme positions get airtime. And there are many practical factors in this discussion which I suspect none of us are aware of.

There’s another issue which has not yet been part of the larger discussion, and that is whether the levels of tourism we previously had have been overall good for the country - and/or whether there is room for growth beyond 2019/20 levels. The avgeek in me says “go for it”, but the domestic traveller, tramper and visitor to local beauty spots says “enough already”. Hard to say this, but maybe we’d be better off as a nation with a smaller number of people relying on tourism income?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 14, 2021 7:55 am

Watching an interview recently with Allan Joyce (QF CEO) and he had an interesting take on the way that Australia and New Zealand an managing COVID.

Putting it down to everything we don’t in life has risk to it, we drive cars everyday but yet we don’t ban them because there is an risk that we could get injured. In the same way that we take an risk everything we hop on an plane an fly somewhere.

It’s at the point now that an Tasman Bubble’s risk is now out weighed by the benefits that would bring to the travel industry in both counties, along with the entire counties economy.

In Australia and New Zealand, there is more risk of being in an car accident than catching COVID while on holiday in either country.
 
tullamarine
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:14 pm

zkncj wrote:
Watching an interview recently with Allan Joyce (QF CEO) and he had an interesting take on the way that Australia and New Zealand an managing COVID.

Putting it down to everything we don’t in life has risk to it, we drive cars everyday but yet we don’t ban them because there is an risk that we could get injured. In the same way that we take an risk everything we hop on an plane an fly somewhere.

It’s at the point now that an Tasman Bubble’s risk is now out weighed by the benefits that would bring to the travel industry in both counties, along with the entire counties economy.

In Australia and New Zealand, there is more risk of being in an car accident than catching COVID while on holiday in either country.

I'm loathe to comment as the chance of getting any comment on government responses to Covid-19 seems liable to deletion now for some reason even though it is hard to separate government responses from the effect they have on civil aviation services.

You are right that we need to consider reopening limited int'l routes with trans-Tasman being an obvious candidate. Governments have spent many millions of dollars creating contact-tracing systems which, to date, appear to work very well but ,for some reason, the same government seem unable to trust their own systems. Partly this is because low numbers have become some sort of weird contest between states in Australia and the NZ government as if that is the sole purpose of the virus mitigation processes we have in place. Remember, the initial lockdowns were not to eliminate the virus but to "flatten the curve" so hospitals were not overrun and systems could be put into place to protect at-risk people. All of this has been achieved.

I fail to understand what is holding NZ back from reopening its aviation borders to Australia and, apart from an isolationist WA, it is only the NZ Government stopping this currently. Short of the completion of the vaccination programs in both countries, nothing is going to change so it seems the NZ Government has decided they are happy with the current settings for the remainder of 2021 even if it doesn't really make sense on either health or economic grounds.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:53 am

This is worth a listen to, while I don't agree with everything he offers it's an interesting debate

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mik ... something/
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:11 am

DavidByrne wrote:
. I know that QF thinks they can make do with just 11 (yes, just 11) 789s for their long-haul network in the medium term, and have no plans to take the remaining three on order for the moment - they’ll go into storage (presumably the desert). .


In addition to the 11 789s Qantas does still have 28 A330s and the 11 JQ 787s. So all up 50 wide bodies at its disposal for it to deploy quickly when the borders open.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:54 pm

NZ321 wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Just came across a Mount Cook Airline timetable from the 1980s.

Back then, there were regular flights into Te Anau, Mount Cook with HS748 (plus Alexandra, Milford Sound with Islanders). What is the reason that those flights disappeared? Has tourism in the area shifted away from high-end to more budget-oriented offerings so that people nowadays go by car and take a local sightseeing flight? In the 1970s/1980s, Mount Cook Airline appeared to be very busy with its aerial tours of New Zealand, but nowadays this concept seems to be limited to a weekly offering by thel ikes of Tauck.


Funny you should mention that - I was thinking about the same thing only the other day; with the exception of Te Anau service, perhaps quite a bit of what Mount Cook used to provide is now provided by smaller private service providers - e.g. Air Safaris.


Not quite the same as the old schedule. It was like a Milk run service. A morning 748 CHC MON ZQN TEU and afternoon CHC MON ZQN MFN.
Also there was the Dunedin Alexandra Queenstown day return . There was a same plane service KKE AKL ROT CHC ZQN as well. Mount Cook had 7-8 HS748s in their fleet at the time. Plus a few Islanders they even served TUO too.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:30 pm

The Cook Islands PM is due to visit New Zealand at the of the month to meet with the New Zealand PM.

Hopefully apart of this is for an shared press conference between the two countries to announce an two way bubble.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/03/cook-islands-prime-minister-mark-brown-coming-to-new-zealand-the-first-international-leader-to-visit-since-covid-19-pandemic.html?cid=soc1%3Anewshubfb&fbclid=IwAR1Y5_yDdxpYUPtPZjb1EgUe42FZBBydnq_l_Y23l4P9wWsSOT5A2AkQDQY
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:08 am

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/43 ... government

...

Talks between the two countries have been ongoing for nine months but New Zealand is still no closer to quarantine-free travel across the ditch, despite indications from the government the arrangement could have been in place by the end of March.

The delay has raised questions about the state of talks between the two countries but the government is adamant they are ongoing.

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins has, however, clarified that officials were close to reaching an agreement at the start of February.

In response to a written question from National MP Chris Bishop, Hipkins said the two-way quarantine travel could start when "the respective health authorities have determined that the rate of Covid-19 transmission and associated public health risk is acceptably low in both countries".

He also revealed New Zealand and Australian officials had discussed the draft arrangement text on 4 February but Australia changed its mind, deciding it wanted to be able to make independent decisions.

"We were relatively comfortable with where things were heading, we were sort of on track. Since then Australia's position shifted so we've had to recalibrate," Hipkins said.

...


Always interesting to hear more info come out. Confirming that there's a lot more going on than simplistic comments spouted here.
 
SpoonNZ
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:18 am

From https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/43 ... government:
"Issues that we're working through include understanding the circumstances that could lead to a suspension of green zone travel on either side of the Tasman; what we would do with those whose travel is disrupted by the suspension of a green zone; testing requirements that may be put in place on either side; Australia's current exit visa restriction that prevents Australians travelling to New Zealand without a visa; the state-by-state differences in decision making in Australia; decision making around expansion to other countries outside of the safe travel zone and who would make those, and whether New Zealand would have any input into that process; and contact tracing system interoperability, in the event that we needed to do contact tracing for people who had been in one country, and were then identified as being more at risk after they had travelled to another country," Hipkins said in the House.


Lots of legitimate issues to reside there. The suspension thing seems like the biggest to me. If I pop over to Sydney for a long weekend and there’s an outbreak, I don’t really want to end up stuck there for weeks...
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:37 pm

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/124575663/transtasman-bubble-expected-to-start-by-the-middle-of-april

Well according to stuff this morning, the bubble could be announced as early as Monday (as it goes to cabinet on Monday).

Apparently it would be at-least 3 weeks, with the claim that airlines need 3 weeks to get ready for it. But Auckland Airport only needs 10 days notice to be ready for the bubble.

I’m not sure about the 3 weeks delay for airlines to get ready, NZ/QF are both already running green flights on the Tasman.

So as soon as it’s go, it should be opened up for these flights. Then scale up.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2021

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:13 pm

zkncj wrote:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/124575663/transtasman-bubble-expected-to-start-by-the-middle-of-april

Well according to stuff this morning, the bubble could be announced as early as Monday (as it goes to cabinet on Monday).

Apparently it would be at-least 3 weeks, with the claim that airlines need 3 weeks to get ready for it. But Auckland Airport only needs 10 days notice to be ready for the bubble.

I’m not sure about the 3 weeks delay for airlines to get ready, NZ/QF are both already running green flights on the Tasman.

So as soon as it’s go, it should be opened up for these flights. Then scale up.


The airline delay will be a small booking window and a resourcing thing, rostering crew, aircraft, ground staff etc. I would call it a very "healthy window". You could do it shorter but most of us would just take 3 weeks now.

The AIAL window is enabling all the requirements like dedicated belts, customs areas etc. The physical work for this was done last year.
Last edited by 777ER on Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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