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aviationjunky
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Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:42 pm

https://simpleflying.com/delta-boeing-767-problem/

An interesting read. They make a few good points, but the overall article seems a little dramatic. I was under the impression the A339 was going to be the direct replacement, granted it carries 50+ more passengers. Are any of Delta's A339 orders able to be transferred to the A338 if they desired to do so?
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Antaras
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:45 pm

I guess the B788 is sipping tea. Nice for DL to have a discount from Boeing.
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ikolkyo
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:47 pm

There is a reason they were all in on the NMA idea and haven't ordered XLRs.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:50 pm

Somehow I doubt that the A330-800 is the solution. If they are going to invest in new planes, the A338 probably doesn’t have the best CASM.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:52 pm

Antaras wrote:
I guess the B788 is sipping tea. Nice for DL to have a discount from Boeing.


Sipping tea? Huh?
 
ethernal
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:53 pm

Delta will upgauge where needed and probably trim a few routes that just can't support a larger plane. They're not going to introduce a new redundant type (787) just protect 5-10 niche routes - especially not the smallest variant with crap CASM.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:53 pm

I really don't see the problem. They have types of every size to upgrade or downgrade to. The 767-400ERs, A330-200s, -300s, -900s, A350-900s can all be used on former 767 routes depending on the demand. If these are all too big and the flight isn't too long, they can use A-321XLR's which they probably will have by that time. They can also order a few A330-800s if necessairy. Or they can lower the frequency if a certain route can't fill a plane, like 4 or 5 times a week. Or if nothing else works cancel that route. The NMA will not fly before 2030. I don't see them ordering 787s as they invested so heavily in Airbus widebodies.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:57 pm

Delta 767 solutions:

-short term Lease American a332 ( the engines will not be a problem)

- Go after the Norwegian dream liners

- make an offer for United 764 for short term lease/ purchase

Basically buy 5 to 10 years of time until the NMA is Ready because that is the best long term investment, none of the above is.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:59 pm

I find Simple Flying to be "meh" in its analysis generally. Delta does not have a clear replacement for the 767 that's true and it needs one, or it has to overhaul the premium cabin which is extremely dated now, but it does have some time and flexibility in finding the replacement.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:04 pm

It's simple flying. Dramatic rubbish
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:05 pm

aviationjunky wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/delta-boeing-767-problem/

An interesting read. They make a few good points, but the overall article seems a little dramatic. (...)


Simple Flying comes across as "uninformed teenager with Google ad budget". I refuse to click on anything from them.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:09 pm

Agreed, dramatic. There should be no shortage of used a330s with plenty of life left in them post-COVID.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:31 pm

The conclusion I've come to is Delta doesn't need a 76ER replacement and certainly not a bunch of 788 and A338 size planes for midwest and east coast to Europe (<9 hour flights). In terms of capacity, they can shift it toward the other fleet types as above posts state while reducing some complexity. I think Delta is betting on a couple things near term. The 767s home, the trans Atlantic market, is not going to be in the place it was before for a few years at least, so It makes sense to reduce capacity and flow pax over JV hubs. Some of the smaller points they served in the US to Europe, if they come back in the years ahead when the 76ER is actually gone, can be upgraded to a 764 if there is enough premium demand to justify or even an A333. As things recover more and evolve in the 2025 and beyond years, Delta can decide if it still makes sense to have a "small" trans Atlantic airplane fleet type again.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:33 pm

DL retired its seven newest, highest gross weight, most capable 767s. Which then got sold. The pattern is set.

As for replacements, I expect DL to go used, mostly. Some routes have already gone A333, but A333 or A339 is overkill. A338 is also overkill. And new planes cost too much. As far as used goes, TATL is an underuse of an A359 or a 787, but it would not surprise me to see DL pick up used 788s. But don't count out used A332s if DL can get enough of them. 2 or 3 years from now.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:33 pm

DL46 JFK - AMS used to be all 76Z. Right now they are doing fine with the 339, so no problem here :embarrassed2:
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:38 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
The conclusion I've come to is Delta doesn't need a 76ER replacement and certainly not a bunch of 788 and A338 size planes for midwest and east coast to Europe (<9 hour flights). In terms of capacity, they can shift it toward the other fleet types as above posts state while reducing some complexity. I think Delta is betting on a couple things near term. The 767s home, the trans Atlantic market, is not going to be in the place it was before for a few years at least, so It makes sense to reduce capacity and flow pax over JV hubs. Some of the smaller points they served in the US to Europe, if they come back in the years ahead when the 76ER is actually gone, can be upgraded to a 764 if there is enough premium demand to justify or even an A333. As things recover more and evolve in the 2025 and beyond years, Delta can decide if it still makes sense to have a "small" trans Atlantic airplane fleet type again.


Do we know that the trip costs of the 339 are appreciably higher than the 76ER? Or that the trip costs will be higher in five years, when the 76ER fleet is pushing 30 years old? Because there are few or no routes where range, runway performance or the like is an issue, the additional capacity of the 339 is only a problem if that additional capacity comes with additional costs that cannot be covered by selling more tickets. It's not obvious to me whether that's the case.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:43 pm

incitatus wrote:
aviationjunky wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/delta-boeing-767-problem/

An interesting read. They make a few good points, but the overall article seems a little dramatic. (...)


Simple Flying comes across as "uninformed teenager with Google ad budget". I refuse to click on anything from them.

I honestly believe they get their info from here.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:08 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
The conclusion I've come to is Delta doesn't need a 76ER replacement and certainly not a bunch of 788 and A338 size planes for midwest and east coast to Europe (<9 hour flights). In terms of capacity, they can shift it toward the other fleet types as above posts state while reducing some complexity. I think Delta is betting on a couple things near term. The 767s home, the trans Atlantic market, is not going to be in the place it was before for a few years at least, so It makes sense to reduce capacity and flow pax over JV hubs. Some of the smaller points they served in the US to Europe, if they come back in the years ahead when the 76ER is actually gone, can be upgraded to a 764 if there is enough premium demand to justify or even an A333. As things recover more and evolve in the 2025 and beyond years, Delta can decide if it still makes sense to have a "small" trans Atlantic airplane fleet type again.


Do we know that the trip costs of the 339 are appreciably higher than the 76ER? Or that the trip costs will be higher in five years, when the 76ER fleet is pushing 30 years old? Because there are few or no routes where range, runway performance or the like is an issue, the additional capacity of the 339 is only a problem if that additional capacity comes with additional costs that cannot be covered by selling more tickets. It's not obvious to me whether that's the case.


I remember seeing a table from Delta DOT submission to Haneda slots were the Fuel Burn (gallons/hour) listed between the A339 doing SEA-HND and the B763 doing HNL-HND was basically the same.
Last edited by AECM on Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:08 pm

Don't take anything simplyflying publishes seriously... It's amazing to me how popular that website has become.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:17 pm

jagraham wrote:
As far as used goes, TATL is an underuse of an A359 or a 787, but it would not surprise me to see DL pick up used 788s. But don't count out used A332s if DL can get enough of them. 2 or 3 years from now.


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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:27 pm

Does an airline always have the "perfect" airplane for every route? Isn't that the magic of succeeding in business or not by having smart people who can make adjustments to accommodate what machinery might be available?
 
Antarius
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:27 pm

AECM wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
The conclusion I've come to is Delta doesn't need a 76ER replacement and certainly not a bunch of 788 and A338 size planes for midwest and east coast to Europe (<9 hour flights). In terms of capacity, they can shift it toward the other fleet types as above posts state while reducing some complexity. I think Delta is betting on a couple things near term. The 767s home, the trans Atlantic market, is not going to be in the place it was before for a few years at least, so It makes sense to reduce capacity and flow pax over JV hubs. Some of the smaller points they served in the US to Europe, if they come back in the years ahead when the 76ER is actually gone, can be upgraded to a 764 if there is enough premium demand to justify or even an A333. As things recover more and evolve in the 2025 and beyond years, Delta can decide if it still makes sense to have a "small" trans Atlantic airplane fleet type again.


Do we know that the trip costs of the 339 are appreciably higher than the 76ER? Or that the trip costs will be higher in five years, when the 76ER fleet is pushing 30 years old? Because there are few or no routes where range, runway performance or the like is an issue, the additional capacity of the 339 is only a problem if that additional capacity comes with additional costs that cannot be covered by selling more tickets. It's not obvious to me whether that's the case.


I remember seeing a table from Delta DOT submission to Haneda slots were the Fuel Burn (gallons/hour) listed between the A339 doing SEA-HND and the B763 doing HNL-HND was basically the same.


That would mean: (4803-3854)/4803 = 19.7% less fuel
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:32 pm

Another article - filled with pretty pictures that contribute zero to the analysis, for people who struggle with words - that sits upon the 'too big' fallacy. If an aircraft can fit at the gate, get off the runway, and still have the range you need it's not too big. Cubsrule points to a sensible metric: trip cost. Emirates would be happy to fly A380s against LH A330s on DXB-FRA - if A380s had anything like A330 trip costs (or if the difference in trip cost were substantially covered by the expected revenue from the extra seats).

The manner of marginal cost and marginal revenue on seat count can get expressed as price elasticity of demand: how much does price need to drop to fill those 'extra' seats. In a DL-specific example, it could be rather elastic (filling seats with only a small change in price) on a route like ATL-AMS where they find both O&D and beyond-AMS passengers. Contrast that with IND-CDG which has zero inbound to IND and a much thinner O&D market so scraping up an extra 55 passengers might demand a hefty discount.

flyboy80 outlines some the typical solutions available to a multi-hub network carrier.

It can also cut frequency - 5x peak, 3-4x off-peak depending on business traffic fractions.

It can also aggregate traffic to run from fewer hubs, particularly to LHR/CDG/AMS where the origin airport count is pretty large.

SimpleFlying's argument also starts with the conceit the that 763 is the right and perfect plane for the routes it sees, as opposed to what DL has available with frames and pilots. How many of DL's 116 149-seat MD-88s, or 65 158-seat MD-90s, got replaced with new orders for A320ceo/738/MAX 8? That would be zero.

A 338 keeps commonality but you're spending new-plane $ for indifferent operating economics (when they have other aircraft for range).

Used 332s may be cheap but sometimes that's not enough: The 763s were almost free (the impairment charge for 56 was a touch over $1.0 Billion) - and the 763s have pilot commonality with the 757/753/764.

I wouldn't declare 787s impossible, but where could they stump up a used fleet of 20-30 in a single transaction? If not used, again, you're paying new-plane $ for a new type that brings fairly marginal benefits in range (not a lot of routes DL needs it) or fuel burn for the intended routes.

No doubt DL would like an NMA in its preferred spec config at a cheap price, no money down, with immediate availability but no receipt commitment. That's not what DL will see as a response to an RFP.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:40 pm

It does seem a bit sensationalist. Many historical 767 operators solved the issue by upgauging to the A330-300 or downgrading to the A321. SAS had no issues upgrading to the A330-300. British Airways went for a combination of A321 for short haul 767s and 787-8 and 787-9 for longer routes.

randomdude83 wrote:
Delta 767 solutions:

-short term Lease American a332 ( the engines will not be a problem)

- Go after the Norwegian dream liners

- make an offer for United 764 for short term lease/ purchase

Basically buy 5 to 10 years of time until the NMA is Ready because that is the best long term investment, none of the above is.


- Convert or order additional A330-800s.
- Replace the 767 from below with the A321neo/A321LR/A321XLR.
- Source additional A330-200s.
- Just make do with the combination of A321neo's and A330-900 Delta already has on order.

I would add that Norwegian only had 8x 787-8s, far from enough to cover whatever need Delta has. The 787-9 is the same size as the A330-900 that Delta has almost 30 outstanding orders for, so that would be pointless. I also doubt the number would justify adding a unique type with all the costs involved. The 787-8 also suffers from the same issue the A330-800 does - poor CASM, and probably doesn't beat the A330-800 to begin with.

American Airlines' A330s aren't the only A330-200s on the market. It's a bit odd to focus on those in particular. There is a handful of ex-Thomas Cook aircraft from 2008 available. Turkish has begun drawing down its fleet, with 2007 and 2008 built aircraft being among the aircraft looking for a home, and more (and younger) aircraft inevitably going to get unemployed sooner or later. Qatar has a bunch. Aeroflot and KLM are slowing selling them off.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:45 pm

As many have said...
Its from simple flying
Just click bait rubbish
Move along.
Or better still,
Close the thread.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:50 pm

aviationjunky wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/delta-boeing-767-problem/

An interesting read. They make a few good points, but the overall article seems a little dramatic. I was under the impression the A339 was going to be the direct replacement, granted it carries 50+ more passengers. Are any of Delta's A339 orders able to be transferred to the A338 if they desired to do so?


Honestly, it's not an interesting read. It's not an in-depth analysis, or even an in-depth read- just some opinions. Just skimming the article it's two sentences, a photo followed by two more sentences. The majority of "articles" written on Simple Flying are horribly written dramatic pieces that have little to no substance. The other half are "recycled" articles where they read something on a reputable site, and then rewrite the article about the same perspective, tweaking it for their opinion.

While I often avoid using the term "click bait" this is a classic example of an avgeek or other aviation enthusiast, writing about something to get traffic. There really isn't a story here.

Point in case: Anyone familiar with the airline industry knows Delta was somewhat in a better position than most for international travel. Their 767s were paid for and have a smaller capacity making them ideal to continue serving longer routes with less traffic. They've been given upgrades in the last 10ish years, and were in much better condition than AA's 767s. Delta had already made a plan to retire them. Delta has a loyal following, and pre-covid, a strong onboard soft product. Their employees make people want to fly with them because they treat them right, so the majority of them seem happy.

There. Is. No. Story. Here.

* PLEASE * stop positing articles from Simple Flying
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:53 pm

I'll say I agree. The 767 can achieve a trip cost that A330, 787, A350, 777 family cannot match. This is key to route profitability in weaker routes.

There are some markets, not a lot, but some, where the 763ER is the best performing aircraft. Again because it has the lowest trip cost.

On a side note I saw DTW-ICN is now being performed by A330-900, which is quite impressive. That used to be a 747's job. The fuel savings is really just amazing there.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:57 pm

My understanding is that Delta hasn't purchased a used widebody since the late 90's, so the odds of purchasing used aircraft to replace 767-300ER's seems remote. Also, the 2014 widebody order was to replace the 747 and 767, and Delta chose the 339 to replace the 767, so I see little chance that it will order the 338. The smart folks here seem to say the 338 has little advantage over the 339 in trip costs.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:59 pm

jagraham wrote:
DL retired its seven newest, highest gross weight, most capable 767s. Which then got sold. The pattern is set.

As for replacements, I expect DL to go used, mostly. Some routes have already gone A333, but A333 or A339 is overkill. A338 is also overkill. And new planes cost too much. As far as used goes, TATL is an underuse of an A359 or a 787, but it would not surprise me to see DL pick up used 788s. But don't count out used A332s if DL can get enough of them. 2 or 3 years from now.


The market for used 767s is red hot. Why not sell them now and likely get the best price for their used assets? These 7 have so much life left in them they were going to see a further career after DL.

Anyway it's not like this is the first time DL sold a 767 to be converted and operated for Amazon.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:03 pm

ethernal wrote:
Delta will upgauge where needed and probably trim a few routes that just can't support a larger plane. They're not going to introduce a new redundant type (787) just protect 5-10 niche routes - especially not the smallest variant with crap CASM.


When did the 787-8 have 'crap casm'? It's 20+% more efficient than 767-300ERs. The 788 is the replacement, a replacment with modest growth potential.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:07 pm

FlyingHonu001 wrote:
DL46 JFK - AMS used to be all 76Z. Right now they are doing fine with the 339, so no problem here :embarrassed2:


Klm did downgauge from 778 to 333 though. You turn one wheel in the transatlantic JV and they all start turning..
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:39 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
There is a reason they were all in on the NMA idea and haven't ordered XLRs.


The issue is that there isn't a single good 763 replacement. Now, this isn't necessarily some existential problem for DL. Airlines have retired types before without a direct replacement. For example, NW was going to eventually retire the 744 with nothing larger than the 787 and A330 in their fleet, but the A330 would have provided TATL service and the 787 fleet TPAC.

For DL, the 788 is one option, although it is bigger than the 763. The problem is that it would introduce a new subfleet without much room for expansion because DL has the A339 instead of the 789. So that leaves the A338, which I'm pretty sure they could get inexpensively and also quickly. So that would cover the upper end of that market segment and then the 321LR or XLR could cover the lower end.

As for the NMA, does anyone honestly think that Boeing can go from a vague concept to full EIS by 2025? Especially given their recent history with the 787, MAX, and now the 77X? I predict EIS for the NMA no sooner than 2028, and even that is an optimistic prediction. If I were an airline CEO, I would be extremely hesitant to make any business plans for my airline around a model that Boeing hasn't even reached a firm configuration on.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:42 pm

Why not just buy new 767s. UA explored it two years ago. If two major airlines want them Boeing could make a business case for it.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:50 pm

AECM wrote:
I remember seeing a table from Delta DOT submission to Haneda slots were the Fuel Burn (gallons/hour) listed between the A339 doing SEA-HND and the B763 doing HNL-HND was basically the same.


This was my thought, those ~50 extra seat in the A339 become an asset when the costs to operate are so similar. While they mention the layout of the aircraft as being a bit premium heavy, Delta seems to be going for the premium traveler, but even if not, certainly they could reconfigure a few of the 339s where appropriate, I mean how many different configurations did they have for the 767?

Also the routes that they mentioned wouldn't work, JFK-MAD and JFK-DSS didn't quite make sense to me as I feel like both routes could certainly handle the extra seats and make money for Delta.

I actually can't think of a route that would do well on a 767 and not on 339. Maybe SEA-KIX but even that route seasonally doesn't seem that bad.

And they quickly glossed over the fact that the few routes that would struggle with the 339, there are 11 332 to be used. I definitely can't think of 12 routes that wouldn't be able to handle the 339. I do however like some other posters ideas about what Delta could buy to fill the gap, my money is on more 332s. While I would love to see the 787 at Delta, I think that ship has sailed. The future Delta fleet will likely be Airbus and the NMA if Boeing gets around to making it.

DocLightning wrote:
As for the NMA, does anyone honestly think that Boeing can go from a vague concept to full EIS by 2025? Especially given their recent history with the 787, MAX, and now the 77X? I predict EIS for the NMA no sooner than 2028, and even that is an optimistic prediction. If I were an airline CEO, I would be extremely hesitant to make any business plans for my airline around a model that Boeing hasn't even reached a firm configuration on.


I totally agree that it is unlikely that Boeing has something for Delta by 2025, but 3 years or even 4 or 5 without it is probably not that big of a deal for a purchase that is supposed to last 20+ years.
Last edited by mpdpilot on Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Antarius
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:52 pm

VSMUT wrote:
The 787-8 also suffers from the same issue the A330-800 does - poor CASM, and probably doesn't beat the A330-800 to begin with.


I'm on board with your points until you make statements like this. 421 orders vs 15. Assuming that all global airlines aren't morons, the 788 is a tad bit better than you give credit to it for.

Now, not saying that DL is going to introduce another fleet type - they already have a330 ceos and a few neos (with many more on order), so the a330 family has a clear leg up assuming all other things remain equal.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:02 pm

Please don't call me dumb or anything, but as per this source, I think even the A330-800neo is a tad too big for 763 routes.
https://www.aviatorjoe.net/go/compare/A ... 767-300ER/

I think if there is one plane that is vital to the international route recovery for DL, it has to be the 767-300ER. While they are old, they are still the smallest widebody in the fleet and are probably going to be more flexible for future route planning from DL. Even the A330-200 has a roughly 1000nm range over the 767-300ER and like a 30-40 seat difference depending on the config.
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:05 pm

Antarius wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
The 787-8 also suffers from the same issue the A330-800 does - poor CASM, and probably doesn't beat the A330-800 to begin with.


I'm on board with your points until you make statements like this. 421 orders vs 15. Assuming that all global airlines aren't morons, the 788 is a tad bit better than you give credit to it for.

Now, not saying that DL is going to introduce another fleet type - they already have a330 ceos and a few neos (with many more on order), so the a330 family has a clear leg up assuming all other things remain equal.


Suffering from poor CASM doesn't mean the aircraft is bad, it means the value vs buying the bigger variant is poor. The 787-9 carries a lot more for only a fractionally higher cost. Same goes for the A330-800 vs A330-900.

421 vs 15 is meaningless without looking at the bigger picture. The 787-8 has been in service since 2011, and was the only 787 variant for a full 3 years. Sales almost dried out since the 787-9 became available, and what few sales there have been were mostly top-ups for existing operators. The A330-800 only entered service last year and came after the A330-900. The years up to this crisis the market was already showing signs of becoming saturated, with Boeing beginning to cut production rates of the 787. That naturally affected sales of the A330-800 as well.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:06 pm

This is not a problem just for Delta, but for all major US carriers. I don't think that the 788 is any better in replacing the 767 than the A338 is. And surely it isn't so much better that Delta should add a new airplane-type to its fleet just for this. It is just waiting for the US carrier till some kind of NMA from either Airbus or Boeing enters the market.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:10 pm

I am kind of confused. I know that the pre-2020 NMA concept is dead now, but that seemed closer to replacing the 767 than a 757 due to specs and size. So now will the NMA be downsized into a different variant to replace the 757-300/200?
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trex8
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:17 pm

Antarius wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
The 787-8 also suffers from the same issue the A330-800 does - poor CASM, and probably doesn't beat the A330-800 to begin with.


I'm on board with your points until you make statements like this. 421 orders vs 15. Assuming that all global airlines aren't morons, the 788 is a tad bit better than you give credit to it for.

Now, not saying that DL is going to introduce another fleet type - they already have a330 ceos and a few neos (with many more on order), so the a330 family has a clear leg up assuming all other things remain equal.

Except the 788 was available years earlier. If the 787 was a 767 beater due primarily to the new generation engines
then the A338 should be in a similar category. With the 788 having now become a poor cousin to the 789 and the A338 starting off as a poor cousin to the A339. As you point out the investment DL has made in A330ceo and now A330neo makes a subfleet of A338s IMHO far more likely than a subfleet of 788s.
 
aeromoe
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:20 pm

catiii wrote:
Antaras wrote:
I guess the B788 is sipping tea. Nice for DL to have a discount from Boeing.


Sipping tea? Huh?


I don't know if this is the meaning in this context:

Urban Dictionary: sipping tea
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sipping tea

sipping tea. Present participle of "to sip tea " usually a meme in social media or chat room context of quietly, discretely or otherwise shrewdly taking part in verbal disclosure of some valuable, interesting or otherwise useful information. Whether in context of gossip or rumors about a celebrity or an important event or other information of value to the listener.
Since 60s: AA AC AS BA BD BF BN BR(85) BY B6 CO CZ(16) DG DL EA EI EN FI FL FT F9 HA HP ICX JI JQ J7 KE KL KS LH MC NW OC OO OZ(87) OZ(88) PA PI PN(97) PT QF QQ RM RO RV(99) RV(16) RW SK SM SQ S4 TI TS TW UA UK US UZ VS VX WA WN WS W7 XV YV YX(13) ZZ 9K
 
ethernal
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:22 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
ethernal wrote:
Delta will upgauge where needed and probably trim a few routes that just can't support a larger plane. They're not going to introduce a new redundant type (787) just protect 5-10 niche routes - especially not the smallest variant with crap CASM.


When did the 787-8 have 'crap casm'? It's 20+% more efficient than 767-300ERs. The 788 is the replacement, a replacment with modest growth potential.


They are crap CASM compared to new purchase alternatives. The 767-300ERs are fully paid off and almost completely depreciated (admittedly with higher maintenace costs associated with an aged frame). 787-8 is not competing against 767-300ERs; it is competing against 787-9/10s, A339/8s, and A359s. And in comparison to those, the CASM is nowhere near as good.

$5-6M/year capital costs over a 25 year lifespan buys a lot of fuel, especially in present vs. future value terms. And, at current fuel prices (admittedly they are starting to rise), the 767-300ER almost certainly has lower CASM than 787-8 when considering capital costs.
 
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:19 pm

ehaase wrote:
My understanding is that Delta hasn't purchased a used widebody since the late 90's, so the odds of purchasing used aircraft to replace 767-300ER's seems remote.

Correct. Whereas DL has purchased several used narrowbodies, they've very rarely purchased used widebodies. The last bunch was 7 763s in the late 90s/early 00s from Asiana and Gulf Air. It's highly unlikely they'll purchase used aircraft to replace the 763; rather they'll just use the 339s and end any route that can't be sustained on an aircraft that size.
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jbmitt
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:33 pm

OA412 wrote:
ehaase wrote:
My understanding is that Delta hasn't purchased a used widebody since the late 90's, so the odds of purchasing used aircraft to replace 767-300ER's seems remote.

Correct. Whereas DL has purchased several used narrowbodies, they've very rarely purchased used widebodies. The last bunch was 7 763s in the late 90s/early 00s from Asiana and Gulf Air. It's highly unlikely they'll purchase used aircraft to replace the 763; rather they'll just use the 339s and end any route that can't be sustained on an aircraft that size.


They did have a 359 deal in place with LATAM that they bought their way out of. It was part of a larger deal, not just used aircraft.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:33 pm

The article is merely an opinion piece.

FACT: DL purchased ~50 A339 and additional A359. DL was to take delivery of these aircraft by 2025; undoubtedly, they would've replaced a healthy chuck of the 763 fleet.
FACT: DL has been upgauging legacy 763 long-haul flights (to B764, A330 and B777) at ATL & JFK for many years. Even the 763 that were used to develop SEA's long-haul flights were destined to be upgauged to the A330.
FACT: DL purchased most of the 767 fleet (including all of the 764) for domestic use (the 777 was its intended primary long-haul aircraft). These aircraft were retrofitted for long-haul use during a period in which the legacy airlines saw domestic flying as money-losing (but necessary to feed profitable long-haul ops).

This notion that the 767 is the best fit for DL is at best a logical fallacy that ignores history and recent trends. Yes, I know that the US-based DL fanboys have been dreaming of a 787 or 797 order, but the direction DL wants to take its fleet in for the next generation has been quite clear for awhile.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:36 pm

I will never understand this site (or the ridiculous Simple Flying's) membership's general obsession with the idea of DL as some used-aircraft hoarder, particularly widebodies.

DL's only had 9 CEOs in its history, and you have to go back literally halfway down that line (to Ron Allen, a quarter century ago) to find one whose team looked at CapEx on a used longhauler, and thought that that'd be a great way to spend money.

Sure things can change, and opportunities can arise.... but it's generally not their M.O., and they've been more than consistent with that through everything from the '90s Asian financial crisis, to 9/11, to the pre-Iraq era, through the '08 financial crunch, through the ensuing fuel insanity of the late '00s.


jagraham wrote:
I expect DL to go used,

Why?


jagraham wrote:
And new planes cost too much.

Since when was that ever an impediment to DL, particularly for longhaul?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:57 pm

ethernal wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
ethernal wrote:
Delta will upgauge where needed and probably trim a few routes that just can't support a larger plane. They're not going to introduce a new redundant type (787) just protect 5-10 niche routes - especially not the smallest variant with crap CASM.


When did the 787-8 have 'crap casm'? It's 20+% more efficient than 767-300ERs. The 788 is the replacement, a replacment with modest growth potential.


They are crap CASM compared to new purchase alternatives. The 767-300ERs are fully paid off and almost completely depreciated (admittedly with higher maintenace costs associated with an aged frame). 787-8 is not competing against 767-300ERs; it is competing against 787-9/10s, A339/8s, and A359s. And in comparison to those, the CASM is nowhere near as good.

$5-6M/year capital costs over a 25 year lifespan buys a lot of fuel, especially in present vs. future value terms. And, at current fuel prices (admittedly they are starting to rise), the 767-300ER almost certainly has lower CASM than 787-8 when considering capital costs.


There have been a total of 3 deliveries of the A330-800neo. I don't even know if their operators have them in service yet.
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mcg
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:01 pm

As a passenger I totally reject the notion that 767's are ever a 'problem', they are always the best solution.

And I find it remarkable that Northwest Orient Airlines had a 787 order.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:13 pm

mcg wrote:
As a passenger I totally reject the notion that 767's are ever a 'problem', they are always the best solution.

And I find it remarkable that Northwest Orient Airlines had a 787 order.




The article was referring to the plane in terms of its average age, fuel burn, viability, and that kind of stuff, not how comfy it is to pax. That said, I like the 2-3-2 config of the 767, far far better than the 787s 3-3-3. Northwest Orient was called Northwest airlines by the time they ordered the 787.
Going to ATL airport in 2019 is like being in 2013
Going to ATL airport in 2010 is like being in 2000
Going to ATL airport in 1998 is like being in 1988
Going to ATL airport in 2035 is like watching paint dry
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Delta Has a Problem: The Boeing 767

Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:16 pm

OA412 wrote:
ehaase wrote:
My understanding is that Delta hasn't purchased a used widebody since the late 90's, so the odds of purchasing used aircraft to replace 767-300ER's seems remote.

Correct. Whereas DL has purchased several used narrowbodies, they've very rarely purchased used widebodies. The last bunch was 7 763s in the late 90s/early 00s from Asiana and Gulf Air. It's highly unlikely they'll purchase used aircraft to replace the 763; rather they'll just use the 339s and end any route that can't be sustained on an aircraft that size.



One question, aren't there many useful routes where a 763 is better than a 339, not demand-wise but performance-wise?
Going to ATL airport in 2019 is like being in 2013
Going to ATL airport in 2010 is like being in 2000
Going to ATL airport in 1998 is like being in 1988
Going to ATL airport in 2035 is like watching paint dry

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